Monday, January 30, 2012

The Bruce Arians Situation

Basically, Art Rooney II dropped the ball.

Originally, word came out that Bruce Arians had "retired" as offensive coordinator, which led many to assume that the Steelers were being nice and decided to let him retire in peace instead of firing him.  That was Friday, January 20th.  Over the weekend and into the early part of the next week, it came to light that he was told his contract wasn't going to be renewed, then it was announced that he was retiring.  By Friday, January 27th, Arians was officially back in play and the jig was officially up: The Steelers wanted to fire Arians, but they didn't. Within a couple of days, he was named offensive coordinator for the Colts.

I've never been the man's biggest fan and, on a number of occasions, I've called for his head.  But, the thing that I've been saying about coaching changes since the first time someone suggested firing Cowher still holds true.  Before you fire a guy, you need to make sure that there's someone better out there.  Before you fire him, you need to make sure that his replacement will get hired before he finds a new job.  Basically, you need to think about how quickly another team will grab him as soon as he's in play.  Arians only lasted a couple of days after it was discovered that he still wanted to coach.  With all the other veteran coordinators and former coaches that are offensive specialists that are out there, it speaks volumes for Arians that Chuck Pagano filled his coordinator position with Bruce as soon as his availability was confirmed.

In the week and change since Arians "retired" I've started to re-think my opinion on him.  There were issues in the red zone all season, with the Steelers finishing 12th in total yardage, but 21st in scoring offense.  His decision to throw the ball more than run it rubbed a lot of people the wrong way, but I have to say I agree with that decision.  The offensive line has struggled with run blocking since 2008 and it's been clear for a while that Ben Roethlisberger is the most talented player on offense.  Given the talent they have at receiver, why run the ball for three or 3.5 yards a carry when throwing gets you seven or 7.5 yards an attempt?  Struggles in the run game led to struggles in the red zone.  Going back to Super Bowl XLIII, it's been clear that the Steelers knew they couldn't get a yard when they absolutely needed one.

In 2011, they didn't finish well in the offensive rankings, but they also went 12-4.  It's true that they played a pot pourri of absolutely awful quarterbacks, but they also played a lot of solid defenses: Cleveland, Cincy, and Baltimore twice, Kansas City, San Francisco, and even the Seahawks and Jaguars.  With the level of defenses they played last season and given the fact that they had half an offensive line all year, it's actually pretty impressive that they finished as well as they did.

So, I think I judged Arians too harshly.  He's in a new city, with a new coach, getting a fresh start with one of the highest rated college quarterback prospects of the last 30 years.  I hope it works out for him.  Last night, my brother texted me to say: "Arians now coordinator for Colts.  I hope Luck throws for 50 TDs next season."  Not only are Steeler fans re-evaluating Arians as a coordinator, they're hoping that he succeeds in spite of the Steelers.

At this point, it's done and can't be undone.  The biggest issue now is that the team doesn't have an offensive coordinator.  And the heir apparent is currently recovering from serious injuries.  And Art Rooney II looks like an idiot.  Actually, that's a lot of big issues, but I think the fact that Rooney dropped the ball is the biggest one.

If he had called Arians into his office on the 20th and said, "Bruce, it's my team and I want to run the ball more.  You don't want to run the ball more.  That puts us at an impasse and it's been that way for a while.  You're fired.  Maintenance came in today and specially calibrated all the doors so that they wouldn't hit you on the ass on the way out.  Have a nice day."  If he had said that and announced it, everyone would be happy that Arians was gone, that the Rooneys had finally listened to their petitions for his removal, and that a new era was about to begin.  Instead, we're re-evaluating Arians, thinking it was a mistake to let him go, and we're hoping he does well in spite of the Steelers.

It's Rooney's team.  If he didn't want Arians to be involved anymore, he should have severed ties and been done with it.  He didn't, so the Steelers look dumb and the search for a replacement continues.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Handicapping the Championship Games

Through the first two rounds I went 5-3 in the Wild Card games and 5-3 in the Divisional Round games, so at least I'm consistent.

I'm actually 7-1 ATS, I've just been horribly wrong (3-5 record) when betting against the Over/Under, which is why I've only won three parlays out of eight bets.  This is on MyBookie not real, actual money.  Gambling is illegal, dontcha know.

On to the picks.  Home team in CAPS...

NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Hated Ravens:

When this line opened at 7.5, I was decided that I was going to take Baltimore and not look back.  My thinking was that the Patriots weren't going to win this game by more than a touchdown.  Then it dropped to 7.  Now, if New England wins by a touchdown, it's a push.  I'd rather take a loss than a push because I'm an idiot, so I'm now prepared to go big or go home.

I originally predicted that the hated Ravens were going to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLVI, even going so far as to state that they could beat the Patriots in Foxborough.  Time and sanity have made me reconsider that position.

Baltimore doesn't have the personnel to match up against Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, though I think their cornerbacks are physical enough to at least slow Wes Welker down.  I don't think they can get consistent pressure on Tom Brady with just four guys -- they weren't able to against Houston and Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil weren't able to get to Brady in the Denver game -- which means he'll have enough time to scan the field and throw the ball to the tight end that's most open.  New England has gotten better at protecting the football as the season has progressed and the hated Ravens will need to force at least three turnovers to win this game.

I am also taking the over.  That's a pretty bold move, considering Baltimore has a great defense and the total points is 50.  I think that the hated Ravens -- especially Ray Rice catching balls out of the backfield -- will be able to score points on this craptastic Patriots defense, but I don't think they'll be able to do enough. 

This Baltimore team isn't built to win shoot-outs and I think that's what this game will turn into.  New England is built to win shoot-outs and that's exactly what they want this game to turn into.  They're at home, they're playing well, they're feeling confident, and they're just far enough removed from their last Super Bowl appearance (and disappointment) to be hungry to return.

On top of that, they've won nine straight and only fail to cover a total points of 50 in one of those games (34-3 win over Kansas City where they took their foot off the gas).  They're also 6-1-2 against a seven point spread in their last nine.

SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5) over NY Giants:

This opened at 49ers by 2.5 with an O/U of 42 and it hasn't moved.  I think it's just right.  Either you believe the Niners will cover or the Giants will win.  Either you think it's going to be a fairly high scoring game or you think it's going to be a snooze fest.  I happen to think San Francisco wins by at least a field goal and I'm taking the Over.

I picked against New York twice already this postseason and I was wrong twice.  The first time I overvalued the Falcons and the second time they were playing the freaking Packers.  I'll admit that I'm not as sold on the Giants as the rest of the world.  I'll admit that I'm probably too enamored with the 49ers.  I know that New York is playing better football than they were in November (when they lost at San Francisco 27-20).

Here's the thing: The 49ers are also playing better football than they were in November.  They've proved they can put up points.  They've proved they can win shoot-outs in pressure situations (like they did against the Saints last week).  Alex Smith has shown that he can carry this team -- for brief periods of time -- if need be.  They also force a lot of turnovers, run the ball well, and stop the run on defense.  They can get to the quarterback and they can play man or zone.  This is a very versatile team and I think they're good enough to beat the streaking Giants.

Also, I watched that game in November.  The final score is misleading.  San Francisco controlled the game on both sides of the ball, but entered the fourth quarter trailing 13-12.  If they dominate the Giants like they did in the regular season, then they'll be the ones in the lead heading into the final quarter. 

Even if the defense unravels like they did against the Saints, the offense has shown that it can keep up and score points late in games.  As much as I'd love to see another Giants-Patriots Super Bowl (with Eli Manning again shattering Tom Brady's dreams), I don't see it happening. 

Friday, January 13, 2012

Handicapping the Divisional Round

I started out Wild Card weekend with a bang, going 4-0 ATS and O/U.  Then I came back to Earth, but that was more the fault of those stupid, stupid New York Giants and their stupid, stupid victory than a case of me getting Tebowed.  I finished 5-3, which puts me well on my way towards winning the AFC West securing a home playoff game.

On to the picks.  Home team in CAPS...

SAN FRANCISCO (+3.5) over NOLA:

I think the 49ers will win this game outright (with a moneyline of +173, no less), but that last half point is really enticing.  If the 49ers lose, I think they only lose by a field goal.  Take the Under, because the O/U for this game is pretty ridiculous at 47.  It's gone down at least a point since it opened, which means that lots of people have been taking the Under, so Vegas is trying to find a number that will convince people to bet the Over.  I remain unconvinced.  The total needs to drop to 43 for me to take the Over.

This goes beyond the fact that I don't trust the Saints offense outdoors.  I also don't trust them on the road, where they went 5-3.  San Francisco went 7-1 at home.  In their three losses, they lost by 3, 2, and 10 points.  They don't get blown out.  They don't give up a lot of points.  They play close, low scoring games.  They played in only three games this season where they would've topped the Over for this game.  One of those games was their 48-3 ba-thwumping of Tampa, one of them was a 33-17 victory over the Seahawks where they scored two touchdowns on special teams, the last was the season finale against the Rams, when they had already clinched a bye and let up on defense after taking a 34-14 lead.

The 49ers have the pass rushing talent up front to pressure Brees with four guys and the talent in the back seven to hang with the Saints receivers.  Their run defense was ranked #1 in the league, allowing an average of only 77.3 yards per game and only two rushing touchdowns all season (both of which came in the meaningless season finale).

They're better than people think, they play well enough on defense to contain the potent New Orleans offense, and the Saints lose just enough off their fastball on the road and outdoors that the 49ers win a tight, low scoring game.

NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over Denver:

Yes, I know.  I'm totally going to get Tebowed on this one.

These two teams met in Week 15 and the Patriots won 41-23.  That game was in Denver.  Total points in that game (64) were well above the O/U for this game (50).  New England would also have covered this spread.

Denver's a hot team and I'm not trying to undermine what they did to the Steelers (a game which, by the way, would also have covered the Over at 52 points).  They're also a streaky team.  When they're feeling confident, they're pretty much unstoppable.  When they're feeling down, they only manage a field goal at home against the Chiefs.  They have every reason to feel confident right now, but I think they've gone past confident and have crossed over into territory that is much, much more dangerous.

Let me explain.

The week before the Wild Card round, I followed the Broncos on Twitter because I wanted to catch news that I might not get somewhere else.  I forgot to unfollow them after the loss.  On Tuesday, they posted a bunch of quotes from interviews with players.  The quotes were regarding that Week 15 loss to the Patriots.  When I read the quotes, I hadn't looked up the score, I just knew New England won.  From the quotes -- things like, "we just needed to make a couple more plays" and "we missed a couple of opportunities" -- I assumed that they lost by a field goal or a touchdown.  The quotes I read weren't even close to being indicative of an 18 point home loss.  They've gone past confident and they're in a much, much more dangerous place.  They're delusional.  Since they were able to play their game their way against the NFL's best defense at home last week, the assumption is that they'll put everything together again and play their game their way on the road next week.  The Steelers have the #1 defense, the Patriots have the #31 defense.  Easy peasy, lemon squeezy.

The problem is that Bill Belichick has made a career out of making sure that teams don't get to play their game their way.  This game is in Foxborough.  The Patriots tend to start games out fast.  If they jump out to a 14-0 lead at home against this Broncos team, it's going to be a shock to the system, like a six year old watching Belichick curb stomp the Easter Bunny.

I think the Patriots jump out to a big early lead, the Broncos re-group at halftime, and they come out fighting in the second half.  I don't think they'll get anywhere close to coming back, but they've got way too much potential on offense to not score a bunch of points against a crappy New England defense.  I think Champ Bailey can handle Wes Welker, but Heath Miller gouged the Broncos pretty bad last week.  Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are way better receivers and are way more involved in the Patriots offense than Miller is for the Steelers.

Denver allowed 23 points to a banged up Steelers offense that had half a quarterback and three backup offensive linemen.  If Isaac Redman can rush for 7.1 yards per carry and 121 total yards behind that offensive line, then some combination of BenJarvis Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, and Stevan Ridley will be able to do just as good behind a very capable, very healthy Patriots offensive line.

Houston (+9) over BALTIMORE:
I think that the hated Ravens will win this game, but I don't think they'll cover.  The Texans showed last week that they're a good team and they deserve to be here.  Most of the guys on that team had never played in a playoff game before.  They all realized how great it was to win in the postseason and they're bound and determined not to found out how bad it sucks to lose.

If Houston can't run the ball, they're dead meat.  Their offensive line knows this.  In order to run the ball successfully, you need to win at the point of attack.  Winning at the point of attack is equal parts talent, scheme, and determination.  The hated Ravens have a stout front seven and defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano has brought back the swagger and intimidation factor to this unit.  Houston has one of the best lines in the league and their offensive line coach has brought his charges up from the dredges to the elite the last six seasons.  Scheme and talent is a wash.  Determination is the X factor.

Houston's offensive line knows that the season is riding on them.  Baltimore's front seven knows that, if they're able to stop the run, they can tee off on TJ Yates and win this game easily.  I'd say the Texans offensive line has more motivation and they'll be more determined.

If Houston can run the ball, they'll be able to score points.  I think the hated Ravens can score enough to win, even against a tough Texans defense.  When the lines opened, the Over/Under was 38.5.  It has since moved down to 36.  I was willing to take the Over at 38.5, so I'm delighted to take it at 36.  This won't be a shootout, but it doesn't need to be.  Everyone was predicting a low scoring game in Denver (including me) and look how that turned out.

NY Giants (+8) over PACKERS:
Again, I think the Packers win, but I don't think they win by more than a touchdown.  The last time these two teams met, the score was 38-35, which is probably why the Over/Under is 52.5 and hasn't moved since it opened.  These are two proud defenses that don't want to get kicked around like that again.  They're also two great offenses, but I think the defenses will step up to keep the score from getting too crazy.

Kickoff temperatures are going to be in the low teens.  The last time these two teams faced a situation like this -- cold playoff game in Green Bay in 2007 -- the Giants won 20-17 in overtime.  I'm thinking something similar, with the Packers winning by a touchdown.

The X factor here is Aaron Rodgers.  He's well rested and wants to shine in his first home playoff game.  The crowd will be behind him and his teammates will be fired up.  If they get on a roll, it could be Packers and the Over, but I don't think that happens.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Broncos

Only piece of Good News: They don't have to play in the Divisional Round.  If they needed to travel to Foxborough to play the Patriots, there would be, like, 15 guys on the active roster.  According to Tomlin's press conference on Monday, pretty much everyone suffered a catastrophic injury on Sunday and they would've only dressed two offensive linemen against New England.  That's an exaggeration, but not much of one.

If there's one other silver lining, I was impressed by how the offense still hung in there and managed to put up 23 points.  They were missing their starting tailback, they were down three offensive linemen, Ben Roethlisberger was at about 50 percent capacity on his banged up ankle, and they were stuck in a situation where they needed to throw the ball and the defense knew it.

Ike Taylor had the worst game of his professional career.  Dick LeBeau didn't adjust from man coverage to zone when it became obvious in the second quarter that the Steelers corners couldn't handle the Denver receivers in man coverage.  It could be that Ryan Clark was the X factor.  Without him to cover for Troy's freelancing, there were big holes in the back end.  But, I'm not ready to say that Taylor sucks because of one game.  I think LeBeau would come to my house and beat me up if I even hinted at saying something like that about him and I would deserve it.  William Gay leaves a lot to be desired, but he's a better option than Bryant McFadden or Curtis Brown.  Troy did a great job on run defense, but he was too committed to the line of scrimmage, even after Tebow started completing long passes past overwhelmed Steelers cornerbacks.  Do I think they should cut him?  I do not, that would be dumb.

The defensive line was all backups and Jason Worilds was in for Lamarr Woodley for most of the game.  Without pressure from the front seven -- some more blitzing would have been nice -- the secondary was left shorthanded and you saw the results.  Given that this defense is going to undergo a major overhaul in the offseason due to salary cap issues, we may have had a glimpse into the future.  That's really bad news.

Ike Redman actually averaged 7.0 yards a carry.  Mike Wallace had a nice touchdown run.  Heath Miller, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jerricho Cotchery chipped in.  Roethlisberger did the best he could on one leg.  The interception was inexcusable, but, like everyone else on offense, you could at least claim that he tried hard and didn't give up.

This was a maximum effort game by the Steelers on both sides of the ball, just not maximum focus.  Wallace had a couple of critical drops and his head definitely wasn't in the game -- he hasn't been on the same page with Roethlisberger since Ben's ankle injury.  Mundy and Troy didn't cover well on deep passes.  Taylor often forgot that he was supposed to be covering Thomas.  They didn't switch up to zone just to keep the plays in front of them.

Tim Tebow averaged 15 yards an attempt and 31 yards a completion.  He averaged five yards a carry.  Demaryius Thomas averaged 51 yards per catch.  They had some ridiculous numbers on offense.  They got on a roll in the second quarter and were almost unstoppable. 

That's the thing about this Broncos team: They're dangerous to opponents because they feed off momentum and confidence more than any team I've ever seen.  If they get on a roll, they can beat anybody, including the Patriots and the Packers.  The way they're set up on offense, if they can hit on some big plays in the passing game against teams that have trouble defending the pass (Patriots are 31st against the pass, Green Bay is 32nd), then they open up the rest of the offense and can mix in runs from Tebow and the other members of their top-rated rushing attack to keep a defense off balance and possess the football.

Denver is also a danger to themselves because they feed off momentum and confidence more than any team I've ever seen.  If things aren't clicking for them early and the Patriots/Packers/hated Ravens jump out to a big lead, then the Broncos will start to lose confidence and the wheels will start to come off.  They may get hot late, but by then it will be too late.  If the Steelers had scored touchdowns on those two first quarter possessions, the game would have unfolded much differently.  I'm not saying the Broncos got lucky and the Steelers deserved to win.  Denver played well and they played better than the Steelers.  They deserved to win, the Steelers deserved to lose.  I'm saying that controlling momentum and keeping the Broncos down is the key to victory.  The Steelers didn't do that, they didn't capitalize on the opportunities they had early, and they paid the price.  If future opponents do the same thing this postseason, then Denver has a great shot at some upsets.

But, the bad news for the Broncos is that the Packers, Patriots, and hated Ravens are all much better in the red zone than the Steelers.  They also force more turnovers on defense.  That gives those teams the ability to put Denver away early and keep them out of the game late.  The Steelers didn't have that ability against anyone this season, which is one of the reasons why they'll have the same view of the games as the rest of us (in a roundabout way, I mean.  I'm sure they have nicer TVs and more attractive people in their living rooms.)

And, hey, I say this every time the Steelers fall short of winning the Super Bowl: They've been there eight times, they've won six, and they've had only nine losing seasons since 1970.  That's a damn impressive run and we, as Steeler fans, should appreciate it.  And not be spoiled by it.

I was talking to a friend of mine yesterday and he had a good point.  The team has been on quite a run since Ben Roethlisberger took over as the starting quarterback (and before that, but the Super Bowl appearances and AFC Championship Game appearances really started to pile up starting in 2004).  Steeler fans have been spoiled by that run.  Maybe it's time for a bad run, so that we can learn to appreciate success again instead of just expecting it and turning up our noses at it when it just isn't successful enough.  I'm not saying I want the Steelers to suck.  I'm saying that it may be the best thing for us as fans, at least in the long term.

As long as we still beat Baltimore.  And the Patriots.

Friday, January 06, 2012

Tebowlicious: Steelers at Broncos Preview:

I am becoming more and more worried and pessimistic about this game as the days go by.  When I heard that the Broncos won the AFC West by losing, I was ecstatic.  It meant that the Steelers would have a chance to dismantle and humiliate Football Jesus and I'm all about the schadenfreude (holy crap, schadenfreude was in the spell check dictionary).

I wasn't overly concerned about the fact that Rashard Mendenhall got placed on IR and I was convinced that Ben Roethlisberger's ankle would only improve, so long as he could continue to just walk it off and/or rub some dirt in it.

Now that we're about 48 hours from kickoff, I'm more than a little nervous, since Ryan Clark can't play, Pouncey has been ruled out, Roethlisberger suffered a setback in the Cleveland game (still listed as probable, though), Polamalu and Harrison haven't practiced this week (somehow listed as probable), Mewelde Moore is out, and Keisel missed two practices this week.  My guess is that, since this is the playoffs, everyone that hasn't been ruled out is going to play.  But, how well will they play in the thin air at Mile High Stadium Presented by Sports Authority?  How limited will they be?

Also, running backs coach Kirby Wilson was badly burned when a fire broke out in his kitchen.  At least Lamarr Woodley looks like he's ready to go, so that's a silver lining.

When I found out the Steelers were going to be playing in Denver, I was looking forward to a pretty easy win.  Then I remembered that the offense seems to have peaked at 13 points a game ever since Roethlisberger hurt his ankle.  Then I remembered that it was a road game and the Broncos play tough at home.  Then everyone got hurt and guys started dropping off and becoming unavailable for the game.  This morning, an assistant coach got burned in a house fire.  There are a lot of bad omens surrounding this game.  This game is officially making me very nervous.

Having said all that, I stand by my Wild Card prediction.  This is going to be an ugly, stupid game.  It will not end quickly.  I will not enjoy it.  Denver will cover and you should take the under (even though it dropped to 33.5), but they will not win outright.

Here's why: The Steelers have destroyed bad quarterbacks all season and Tim Tebow is a bad quarterback.  It doesn't matter what stat you use: quarterback rating (72.9), QBR (30.5), or QBERT (6.385).  He has only 1,729 yards passing in 11 starts, his completion percentage is atrocious (46.5%), and he's been sacked 33 times.  He's also fumbled 13 times.  I know that he's 7-4 and that he's money in the fourth quarter, but I also know that more accurate passers with better numbers still struggled to put up even respectable numbers against the Steeler pass defense.

The more accurate/better numbers list includes: Tavaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Blaine Gabbert, Curtis Painter, Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace, Kellen Clemens (OK, that one's debatable, he may be a less gifted passer than Tebow), and Tyler Palko.  Those guys combined to score 74 points on the Pittsburgh defense and 40 of those points came from Curtis Painter and Kevin Kolb.

They should be able to focus on Willis McGahee and contain him.  They have the personnel in the secondary to switch off between the Cover 3 looks that Buffalo used to stop Tebow and the man coverage looks the Patriots and Chiefs used.  They just need to remember to stay focused and stay on their man when they switch away from zone coverage.  Tebow was able to burn the Vikings secondary for a couple of long touchdowns because the defensive backs were too focused on him and forgot to stay on their man.  I can see Troy Polamalu making that mistake and Ryan Clark won't be there to cover Troy's mistakes.  Then again, pretty much every quarterback in the league was able to burn the Vikings secondary this season, so maybe it just boils down to Tebow not being very good.

The point is that the Steelers shouldn't need to score much to win this game.  They won't score much, either, which is why you should take the under.

Just remember: A win's a win.

Prediction:
Steelers 13, Broncos 9

Thursday, January 05, 2012

2011 Playoff Predictions

I don't think this is the year for the Steelers, but I never think it's their year.  I didn't think it was their year in 2005 or 2008 or 2010, but I totally thought it was their year in 1998 and 2006, so there's that.  Having said that, there are only four teams that scare me in both brackets.

In order of most scary to least scary:

  1. The Saints (indoors)
  2. Green Bay
  3. Hated Ravens
  4. New England
If I were a playoff team, those are, in order, the four teams I would not want to play.  I'm not saying that anyone else in the bracket is a pushover, I'm just saying those are the scary teams.  Given that New Orleans has zero chance of playing indoors throughout the postseason, I don't think they're going to make it.  If they somehow make it all the way to Indy, I feel sorry for the AFC team that has the misfortune of playing them in a dome.


On with the predictions.  Hopefully, I'll do slightly better than I did last year.  By "slightly better" I mean "not completely getting everything wrong and looking like an idiot."

AFC Bracket:

I know that TJ Yates has an injured shoulder and that the Texans backed into the playoffs.  I also know that it's his non-throwing shoulder and he's practiced all week.  Cincinnati didn't exactly storm into the playoffs.  They went 3-5 in the second half of the season.  They beat Arizona, Cleveland, and St. Louis.  They went 0-7 against playoff teams.  Houston wins this weekend and then has to travel to Baltimore, where they already lost convincingly way back when Matt Schaub was their quarterback.

I'd also like to take this opportunity to say that the Bengals really scare me.  They got AJ Green and Andy Dalton in this year's draft and they fleeced Oakland out of a bunch of picks in the Carson Palmer trade.  They scare me more than anyone in the AFC over the next five seasons, including the Patriots and hated Ravens.

The Texans have themselves an exceptional offensive line and a couple of great running backs.  They also have a solid defense, especially now that Wade Phillips is back on the sidelines.  But, they still have TJ Yates as their quarterback and that's not going to cut it against the Ben Roethlisbergers and Joe Flaccos and Tom Bradys of this bracket.

Football Jesus will also fall short against a real defense and a real quarterback, but that game is going to be ugly.  If I wasn't obligated to watch it, I think I would pass.  There are going to be bad passes, turnovers, failed red zone opportunities, and half the Steelers hobbling around with injuries.  It's going to end with someone winning 16-12 and I believe that someone is going to be the Steelers.

Houston travels to Baltimore and gets crushed.  The Steelers will have to go to Foxborough, where the Patriots are 0-2 in their last two postseason games.  I don't think that means that they just roll over and die.  The fact that they have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick and Wes Welker and two of the best tight ends in the NFL, plus a great offensive line, makes them dangerous in a single elimination tournament.  Since I know I'll be wrong anyway, I may as well pick the Steelers to go to New England and finally beat Tom Brady when it matters.

If the Steelers play the hated Ravens at any point in the playoffs, that's going to be Baltimore's Super Bowl.  They're going to go all out and they will not allow themselves to lose.  If the hated Ravens need to go to Foxborough, I think they still win.  They have the best individual athlete in the AFC bracket (Ray Rice) and the best defense.  They have a veteran roster that is loaded with postseason experience.  They used the offseason and regular season to prepare themselves for this run.  They will beat anyone that stands in their way, even the Steelers.

You know who says it's tough to beat a team three times in one season?  Teams that already lost twice.  It's hard to beat any team once, especially when that team is a playoff team.  The fact that you already beat them twice only gives you confidence.  It also gives you film that you can look at and say, "Oh, yeah.  That's how we beat those guys the other two times.  Let's do that again."

As much as it pains me to type this, the Hated Baltimore Ravens will be your AFC representative in this year's Super Bowl.  Now for the NFC...

NFC Bracket:


If the road to the Super in the NFC went through the Super Dome, the Saints would play in -- and win -- Super Bowl XLVI.  But, they have to go outdoors and the non-dome version of the Saints don't scare me.  I think that they crush Detroit at home on Saturday, but I think they fold outside the friendly confines of their dome in San Francisco.

The 49ers are a great team, but they're not a championship team.  They're too conservative, too unreliable when they get inside the 20, and Alex Smith is their quarterback.  Smith has done a good job of making the right decisions and not turning the ball over, but he's not going to be able to cut it when he has to throw down against Aaron Rodgers and an opportunistic Packers defense.

Eli Manning is a great story and the Giants have a lot of playoff experience, but that only goes so far when it comes to bridging the talent gap.  Atlanta has Matty Ice, a still-feisty Michael Turner, and an explosive offense.  They don't play enough defense to win it all, though.  The Falcons traded away their future to get Julio Jones and make it to the next level, but I don't think they've done enough to get past Green Bay.

For a 15-1 team, the Packers aren't a prohibitive favorite.  One of the reasons people are down on Green Bay is because they finished dead last in total defense in terms of yardage allowed.  But, they finished 14th in points allowed and first in total points.  When it comes down to it, they have an aggressive bend-don't-break defense and an incredibly efficient offense.  They also have the best quarterback in the bracket in Rodgers.

Atlanta beats New York, New Orleans beats Detroit, San Francisco beats New Orleans, Green Bay beats Atlanta, Packers beat 49ers to advance to the Super Bowl.

That means it'll be a Packers-Hated Ravens Super Bowl and I'm not sure who I'll root for.  The old adage is that defense wins championships.  That will be put to the test this postseason.  Will the Packers be the first team to finish last in total defense but still win the Super Bowl?  Will Baltimore have enough on defense to slow Green Bay down?  I'm really not sure.

My gut feeling is that the hated Ravens protect the ball well enough to not make key mistakes against the Packers.  I think they score enough points and play well enough on defense that they can win a close game.

It pains me even more to say this, but...

Predictions:

AFC Playoffs:
Houston over Cincinnati
Steelers over Denver
Baltimore over Houston
Steelers over Patriots
Baltimore over Steelers

NFC Playoffs:
Saints over Lions
Falcons over Giants
Packers over Falcons
49ers over Saints
Packers over 49ers

Super Bowl:
Hated Ravens over Packers

Wednesday, January 04, 2012

Handicapping the Wild Card Round

After my resounding victory in NFL Pick Em this season, I've decided to pick each round of the postseason against the spread.  This is a more challenging way to do things, but I have confidence in my abilities.  Onto the picks (home team in CAPS)...

HOUSTON (-3) over Cincinnati:
I thought this line was going to go down when it opened, because so many people were going to take the Bengals in an upset.  It hasn't moved since it opened at 3, but you should still take it as soon as you can in case the Mighty Ginger's mysterious "illness" starts to swing it towards the Texans.  If the line moves to 3.5 or, even worse, 4, then it's not worth it.  This is a textbook 21-17 or 27-23 or 28-24 game.  At four points, it's a push.  At three points, it's easy money.

In the playoffs, it's all about quarterback play.  Cincinnati has the edge there, but the Texans have the edge everywhere else, including the fact that they're playing at home.  The over/under on this one is surprisingly low (38.5), but I think that Vegas is thinking that two solid defenses will keep this game low scoring.

My feeling is that it will unfold like Super Bowl XXXVIII between the Panthers and the Patriots.  Both teams will start out conservative and try to feel each other out, then they'll come out swinging in the second half.  If the first half ends 10-7, don't panic.  They'll make up for it in the second half.

NEW ORLEANS (-10.5) over Detroit:
I tried to talk my way into picking the Lions.  I really did.  That line is HUGE and Detroit is a solid team.  The Saints play crappy defense.  But, really, I'd need a 15-17 point line to pick against the Saints at home.  They're just unstoppable.

NOLA's margins of victory at home this season: 17, 7, 55, 11, 25, 14 (against Detroit), 29, 28.  They're 8-0 at home, there's only one game on that list where they wouldn't have covered, and they already covered that spread against the Lions earlier this season.

I know that the over is 58.5 and that's a ridiculous number.  But... total points in the eight games this season in the Super Dome: 43, 73, 69, 43, 73, 48, 63, 62.  That's five out of eight total games and three out of the last four.  They might hit the Over by halftime.

Atlanta (+3) over NY GIANTS:
New York is 4-4 at home and they're shaky as hell.  I think the Falcons cover and win outright, so take the moneyline at +136.

These are two high-flying offenses and two teams that don't play a lot of defense.  An over/under of 47 actually seems a bit low.  I see the Falcons winning this one 34-20 or so.

DENVER (+9) over Steelers:
Don't get me wrong.  I think the Steelers win this one.  I just think that, whoever came up with this line, they didn't watch the Steelers play the past month or so.  With an ailing Ben Roethlisberger behind center, I find it hard to believe that the Steelers will score enough to cover this spread, regardless of where the game is played.

This strikes me as another grinding 13-9 or 14-10 or 16-13 victory for the Black and Gold.  I think they win, but I don't think they roll.  And take the Under, even though total points is an extremely low 34.

Monday, January 02, 2012

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Browns

Good News first:

  1. I am bound by international law to state that a win is a win.
  2. Hines Ward got his 1,000th reception, becoming only the eighth player in NFL history to reach that milestone.  It's an impressive accomplishment and I think that solidifies him as a Hall of Fame player.  He's got the rings and the reputation, he just needed the stats.  Now, the 1,000th reception itself was definitely a cheesy call and they've been feeding him easy catches the last few weeks, but I don't think that taints the accomplishment at all.  He earned the other 990 or so receptions and he deserves to have his name up there with the all time greats.
  3. I think Ike Taylor was snubbed for the Pro Bowl.  I also think the secondary as a whole is playing at a very high level.  The front seven hasn't been getting as much pressure this season with Woodley and Harrison missing a lot of time, which also makes it so that Lawrence Timmons and James Farrior need to spend more time in coverage.  In past seasons, the front seven bailed the secondary out by generating pressure on the quarterback.  This season, the secondary bailed the front seven out in a big way.  I know that Seneca Wallace isn't exactly Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, but he was held to 171 yards on 41 attempts (4.3 yards per attempt) with only 16 completions, no touchdowns, and an interception.  The defense in general has been destroying average quarterbacks all season and they held Andy Dalton and Tom Brady in check.  If not for those last two minutes in the last game against the hated Ravens, the pass defense wouldn't have a black mark on their resume this season.  Now, if only they could intercept some passes.
  4. That's the thing.  This is a championship defense if they can force some turnovers.  They've actually forced 13 fumbles on the season, but they've only recovered four of those.  They have 11 interceptions, so that's 15 total turnovers forced in a 16 game season.  That's no good.  It's true that you can make your own luck when it comes to turnovers, but it's also true that a lot of it depends on how the ball bounces.  What if they'd had some lucky bounces on some more of those forced fumbles and had recovered nine or ten of them?  On offense, they've lost 13 of 16 fumbles, so the ball definitely isn't bouncing their way this season.  How many tipped balls were there on Sunday?  If the ball hasn't been bouncing their way this season, it's highly unlikely that it will start bouncing their way in the playoffs.  That means this isn't a championship defense.  Maybe this belongs in Bad News?  We'll leave it here.
  5. Ben Roethlisberger made it through the entire game without aggravating his ankle injury.  It sucks that Mendenhall went down, but Roethlisberger is the only indispensable player on offense.
  6. They outgained Cleveland 360-240 on Sunday and they outgained their opponents 5957-4349 on the season and they finished with the #1 scoring defense, the #1 pass defense, and #1 in total defense.  That's pretty damned impressive.
Now for the Bad News:
  1. They didn't have a huge edge in point differential, despite the fact that they gained an average of 100 yards per game more than their opponents.  They finished 22nd in scoring offense.  Part of that was that the defense wasn't generating turnovers and giving the offense a short field.  The other part was struggles in the red zone.  This is a great offense between the 20s, which can get you to 12-4 with the support of a great defense.  Can't get you to the Super Bowl so much.
  2. Mike Wallace seems to be regressing.  Roethlisberger is not targeting him as much as he did early the season and that's probably part of it.  But, Wallace was also caught not paying attention on a couple of plays where Roethlisberger targeted him.  Wallace was definitely a bigger part of the offense earlier in the season and defenses started paying more attention to him, which opened things up for Antonio Brown.  Brown took full advantage of those opportunities and now defenses are starting to watch out for him.  It'll be interesting to see who the Broncos have Champ Bailey cover in the Wild Card round.  If I were them, I'd put Bailey on Brown and roll the dice that Wallace doesn't make a game changing play.
  3. Rashard Mendenhall's knee injury is a bummer, but I don't think it's a catastrophic bummer.  The real issue is that Mewelde Moore is also dealing with a knee injury and Baron Batch has been on injured reserve all season.  A position that was already thin in terms of depth just got thinner.  If anything happens to Issac Redman, the offense is in big trouble.  But, the good news here is that Redman is probably a better back in this offense, provided he can keep from fumbling the ball.  Since the Steelers don't have a dominant offensive line that blows guys off the ball, they don't open very many big holes.  Mendenhall can do more with a big hole than Redman, but Redman can make more out of a small hole (or no hole) than Mendenhall.  But, the fumbling problem is a big problem.  He didn't have ball security issues heading into Week 17, so let's just hope that it was a one-game-jitters situation.
  4. Ramon Foster got dinged up, Pouncey looked a little sluggish, and I have no idea what kind of shape Legursky is going to be in.  The Steelers don't have a ton of talent up front and starting backups of players that don't have a ton of talent is no way to win a championship.
The biggest piece of bad news is that the hated Ravens also won, which means the Steelers are the 5 seed instead of the 2 seed.  I'm not a big believer in home field advantage when it comes to the playoffs.  The Steelers won three games on the road on their way to Super Bowl XL.  It can be done.  My problem with the  lack of a bye.  I think Roethlisberger and the other walking wounded could've really used that extra week of rest.  In addition, someone else could've done the Steelers a favor and knocked off Baltimore, possibly New England as well.

The two teams that scare me the most in this postseason bracket -- the Patriots and the hated Ravens -- are also the two teams that are in the best position to make a deep run.  That sucks.

But, ultimately, unless the offense can take better care of the ball and seal the deal when they get inside the 20 and the defense can force some turnovers, this is just a really good team that went 12-4 and went to the playoffs this season.