Friday, October 11, 2013

It's a Mess: Steelers at Jets Preview

Before the season started, I had this game penciled in as a win.  The Jets were in shambles, they were starting a rookie at quarterback, Mark Sanchez was a huge distraction, and Rex Ryan looked like he was trying to get fired.  As things stand now, I have a feeling that the New York Jets are looking at the Steelers and thinking, "Man, that team has some serious issues."

The defense can't tackle or make any big plays, the offensive line is in disarray, they just traded for a left tackle that the Arizona Cardinals were willing to pay $3 million to get rid of, there's some kind of issue with ping pong that I don't quite understand, the offensive coordinator is a colossal douche, they're 0-4, and Ryan Clark and Ben Roethlisberger have a mini-feud going.  All that I honestly feel as though I'm forgetting something.

I had hoped that the bye week would give them a chance to sort a few things out and get a little bit more stable on all fronts, but the opposite seems to have happened.  They appear to have gone further off the rails and I'm not sure how much further they're going to get off course.  I would say that I don't think it's possible for things to get worse, but I thought that heading into the bye week... and they got worse.

I think that the defense will play better than they've shown the past two games.  I think that they'll eventually register a sack and force a turnover.  I think they won't give up a kajillion yards rushing and 34 points against New York.

I think that the offensive line will be in better shape with Mike Adams out of there and Kelvin Beacham  or Levi Brown in.  I think the receivers will continue to improve and mature and that the pass offense has the potential to be pretty explosive by the end of the season.

But, this is still a flawed team that has major talent holes at a number of positions.  Demoting Ziggy Hood and Mike Adams sends a message and their replacements will be better, but it's doubtful that they'll be considerably better, or at least good enough that right end and left tackle won't be areas of weakness. Getting Le'Veon Bell and Heath back will help boost the offense and give Ben Roethlisberger and Todd Haley more options.

The issue is that all of these things are like having a kid to save a bad marriage: The dynamic changes, but the old problems are still there.  In order to salvage the season and take big steps forward, they need to fundamentally change how they approach things.

They need to max protect more, take more shots down the field, and run more when they get into the red zone.  They need to blitz more, play more man coverage, and take more chances on defense.  They had been playing it safe thus far, only going all out -- at least on offense -- when they felt they had no other choice.  They assumed that they had the talent and football savvy to win enough games to at least be competitive, but they overestimated the talent on hand by a lot and weren't anywhere near as savvy as they thought.

They're a quarter of the way through the season and doing things the same way they've always done them isn't working.  They need to step outside their comfort zone, take some chances, and basically go big or go home.  I have no idea if they'll succeed or not if they take that chance, but they haven't won any games playing it safe, so it's worth a shot.

Sure, the Jets have a rookie quarterback, a ton of injuries on offense, and they traded their best defensive player in the offseason.  They're also 3-2, they're at home, they know who they are, and they know how to get where they want to go.  They may be a mess, but they're not as big a mess as the Steelers right now.

Prediction:
Jets 17, Steelers 16

Thursday, October 03, 2013

Buctober: NLDS Preview

First off, let me say that Tuesday's Wild Card was an amazing game.  The fans were insane, the players fed off that energy, and the Pirates took care of business.  To some degree, the Reds choked, but the Pirates also dismantled Cincy and every key moment in the game swung in the Buccos favor.

If they can play like that the rest of the way, they'll not only win this series, they'll win it all.

Trouble is, I don't think that they can sustain what they did on Tuesday night.

St. Louis is more consistent and balanced.  They finished 3rd in runs scored, 4th in batting average, 3rd in on-base percentage, and 12th in slugging.  They were also 5th in ERA and 8th in WHIP, and were in the top 15 in pretty much every other pitching category.  They're not a team that needs to score a bunch of runs to win, but they're a team that can win a slugfest.  They can also win tight, low-scoring games.  They play exceptionally well at home and they get 3 out of 5 games at Busch Stadium.

They have a ton of players on the roster with extensive postseason experience. Talent usually trumps experience, as the Pirates proved on Tuesday night, but the Cardinals have more talent and more experience.

I don't think that the Wild Card game hurt the Pirates at all.  If anything, it gave them the confidence and the experience they didn't have previously.  Francisco Liriano will still get to pitch in the first three games -- Game 3 at PNC Park and he's much tougher at home than on the road -- and a starting threesome of AJ Burnett, Gerrit Cole, and Liriano is still very formidable.  Maybe Burnett versus Wainwright today favors the Cardinals, but the pitchers don't go against each other.  They go against the batters for the other team.  As long as the Buccos do a better job of scoring runs against Wainwright than St. Louis does against Burnett, then AJ and the Pirates will win.  The bullpen was barely touched on Tuesday, Mark Melacon didn't have to pitch, and Jason Grilli has two days rest.

The 4 seed vs. 1 seed matchup only concerns me in that the Pirates need to play three road games in a five games series, but they would've needed to play three road games regardless of who they drew.

I just think this Cardinals team is a bad matchup for them, despite the fact that the Pirates won the season series 10-9.  They won most of those games at home and four of those wins came in a five game series at the end of July at PNC.  If the Buccos had three home games and started off the series with two games in Pittsburgh, I'd pick them.  This is a really close series, the games should be tight, and it's entirely possible that the Pirates could pull it off.

As a lifetime Pirate fan, I've spent my time hoping for the best, but expecting the worst.  It could be that's clouding my mindset and opinion now, because there's something knawing at me that says the Buccos hold the advantage in terms of talent, pitching, and matchups and have enough of an advantage to overcome the fact that St. Louis has homefield.

If they can split the first two games in St. Louis, then they have a real shot.  If they can't split those games -- I think they lost both of them -- then the Cardinals can split the next two games in Pittsburgh.  If they split in St. Louis, then it's very possible that they could use that momentum to close out things at home.

I don't think it'll happen that way, so I'm going to go Cardinals in 4.

HOWEVER, if the Buccos do happen to beat the Cardinals, I like their chances to advance to the World Series.  I think that they have the pitching depth and building confidence to take on the Braves or Dodgers. I will be rooting for them to take this series and advance to the NLCS (then the World Series!), but expecting them to fall flat on their face in Missouri.

BONUS COVERAGE:

My buddy Keith, who knows everything about baseball, completely disagrees with me.  I asked him for his prediction (without first telling him that I was going to try and quote him on it) and he had this to say:

"The Cardinals offense is not intimidating without Allen Craig, particularly since the only reason they won the division was an absurd team performance with RISP.  Plus, the Pirates all believe that they are a part of something special while this is just another postseason for the Cards.

The Braves are virtually unbeatable at home for some reason.  The Dodgers have won 60 of their last 90 games. Both teams have absolute shutdown closers.  LA wields the extra threat of Clayton Kershaw, but the Pirates have handled Zack Greinke pretty well over the years.  I think whoever wins the Atl/LA series wins the NL."

So, I'm hoping for the best, that Keith is right.  Like he usually is.