Heisenberged: Bears at Steelers Preview

OK, here's the thing: I'm 95% sure I'm going to watch Breaking Bad at 9 p.m. on Sunday instead of watching the Steeler game.  I'll most likely record the game and watch that hour of it later -- with the bonus of avoiding the 15 or so commercial breaks that NBC is probably going to jam into the first half, while the game is still competitive -- but I think I've convinced myself that watching Breaking Bad is a better use of my time.  I know that I'm going to enjoy it, that I'm going to be entertained, and that, with all the updates and spoilers I'm going to see on the Internet, it makes more sense to watch it live rather than recording it and watching it later.  I don't want to slog through an hour, bored out of my mind, only watching because of a sense of obligation, because I've invested so much time already.  If I wanted to spend an hour that way, I'd just watch Dexter.

I'm being melodramatic and I'm exaggerating, but not by a whole lot.  I know that Breaking Bad will deliver the goods and I can't say the same about the Steelers.

After they opened the season 0-2, there was a quick flurry of, "They opened the season 0-2 in 2002 and won the division that year!" observations, but then everyone realized that this team is different than that 2002 team.  That team opened against the Patriots and the Raiders (remember that's the year the Raiders went to the Super Bowl, so this was before they sucked).  New England was defending its title.  That was a deeper Steeler team, a more talented team, and a squad that just happened to draw the two best teams in the AFC in their first two games.

The 2013 Steelers may actually be good, I'm still not sure, but they certainly have a confidence problem.  The offensive line lacks confidence -- they're not sure how good they are, there's real anxiety about everyone getting hurt, and they haven't been together long enough to be confident in each other.  Solid offensive line play is equal parts talent, rote, and determination.  There's plenty of athletic talent on this line, but they haven't played and practiced together much, so the familiarity isn't there.  Determination is having the confidence to try to do something and the tenacity to see it through.  If they don't have confidence, they can't see it through.  That's where it all starts and it trickles down from there.

The coaches don't think the line can pass protect for more than a couple of seconds, so they're calling safer, shorter plays.  I'm not a huge fan of Todd Haley, but I don't think you can pin this on him.  If he calls too many aggressive pass plays that call for long dropbacks, he exposes Ben Roethlisberger to injury.  If Roethlisberger gets hurt, then the season is sunk for sure.  Haley doesn't have Mike Wallace to take the top off the defense.  He doesn't have a back that he trusts to hold onto the ball.  They don't have any explosive players and they're not making any explosive plays.  If they start to trust the offensive line, if they start to make some big plays, they'll gain some confidence.  Confidence is contagious. The trouble is that I don't see enough guys on this roster to foster that kind of confidence and make those kinds of plays.  I don't think that getting Heath Miller and Le'Veon Bell fixes that.  I think they just need to take baby steps until they can walk.  That might not happen this season.

The defensive is playing it safe and there are two explosive playmakers on that side of the ball: Troy Polamalu and Jarvis Jones.  Jones is going to be an amazing player, but he's still young and raw.  Troy, as much as I love him and think he's a great player, will get hurt by Week 6.  If he doesn't get hurt and Jones makes serious strides, then they've got a little bit of something going on defense.  But, they still don't have enough.  They need to start piling up sacks and forcing turnovers, making big plays on defense.  Right now, they're playing it safe.  They're playing not to lose.  Again, this isn't something I blame the coordinator for, as if I could ever say anything bad about Dick LeBeau.  These are just the circumstances they're operating under with the players they have, at the development levels they have them.

These guys will get better, they will gain confidence, they will come together, they will make plays.  I just think the 2013 version of this team is a lot like the 2003 version of this team.  Both seasons had similar vibes to them.  Both teams had issues on the offensive line (remember that Alan Faneca played left tackle for a few games).  They needed to develop and gain confidence.

Bad news: That 2003 team finished 6-10.  Good news: With basically the same personnel (plus a rookie phenom named Ben Roethlisberger), they went 15-1 in 2004.

Now, for the bad news for Sunday: The Bears are already a developed team that is playing as well as they can play.  They're 2-0 and looking to build on recent successes.  The Steelers are 0-2 and looking to avoid recent failures.

I hope the Steelers are going to be in the lead (or at least keeping the game competitive) when I switch over from Breaking Bad at 10 p.m. on Sunday, but I doubt it.

Prediction:
Bears 24, Steelers 13

Remember the Titans... Suck: Titans at Steelers Preview

Holy crap.  There hasn't been a post on the ol' SteelersNAt blog since August 15th.  I would've thought August 26th, but what do I know.

Looks like football season is upon us and the Steelers host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday at 1 p.m. at Heinz Field.

I mentioned during the preseason that I didn't have high hopes for the Steelers this season; I just don't want them to be boring like they were last season.  They finished 8-8, which is kind of like kissing your sister. But, the average score in those games was 21-19 and there were a number of turnover-riddled snoozefests that ended 16-14 or 13-10 or 20-14.  So, last year was kind of like watching your sister kiss all your uncles on the cheek.  Which... I guess means I'd like to watch my sister make out with random dudes this season.  And that doesn't make any sense.

What I'd like to see is exciting games with big plays -- even if it means poor tackling and poor coverage -- and a finish within one game of 8-8 (7-9, 8-8, or 9-7, doesn't really matter).  I think that Sunday's game has a high potential to kick off the season right, with lots of scoring, defensive breakdowns, offensive breakdowns, and crazy plays.

Consider:

1. Chris Johnson can break a big play at any time.
2. Kenny Britt had his first big game against the Steelers and Nate Washington has big play potential (or at least he did at one point and maybe he's still mad that he doesn't play for Pittsburgh anymore).
3. The Titans defense is young and opportunistic.  Better yet, they're young, inexperienced, and undisciplined, so maybe the cornerbacks will jump routes and miss, allowing a big play on the back end.  Maybe they'll jump routes and hit, making a big play.
4. Ben Roethlisberger is quirky and unpredictable.  If they start to struggle running the ball early on -- and they probably will -- then Roethlisberger might decide to let it rip.
5. This year's defense can't possibly be worse at forcing turnovers than last year's... can it?

On the other side of all this is the fact that neither team's offensive line looks like it's all the way together yet. That's a wild card in that it could lead to a lot of big plays -- strip-sacks and whatnot -- or it could lead to a lot of futility and three-and-outs.

The good news is that Tennessee doesn't have a very good team and they're in Year Two of a pretty painful four year rebuilding process.  They may be competitive and dangerous eventually, but not now.  Their front seven has been repeatedly gutted by free agency and Bernard Pollard might be their best player in the secondary.  On offense, Jake Locker is a great athlete, but he's a terrible quarterback.  The Steelers tend to feast on terrible quarterbacks.  Despite the nice things I said about Britt and Washington, those guys are a couple of oft-injured, wildly inconsistent "upside guys" that keep getting chances because someone is dumb enough to believe that they'll put it all together eventually if they just get enough chances.

Chris Johnson is the guy to fear, even if he's been underwhelming the past two or three seasons.  He's still explosive, still super fast, and can still break off a long touchdown at any moment.  The Titans are going to feed him the ball because they have no other real option.  If he gets enough chances, he'll break a big gain eventually.  The Steelers just need to stay focused, maintain their lanes on defense, and practice sound tackling fundamentals.

The Steelers are an average team, but the Titans are a bad team.  The fact that Roethlisberger is one of the seven or eight best quarterbacks in the league lifts the Steelers from being below average to just average.  If they can't beat Tennessee, then they are a bad team (I don't care if the Titans finish with a winning record, bad teams can get lucky as these same Titans did in 2011).

In order to not embarrass themselves, the Steelers need to win this game.  If they can get off to a winning start, they'll enter next week with more confidence -- and they'll need all the help they can get against the Bengals.  If they lose this week, they could very well open up the season 0-3.  If they split their non-division conference games (home against the Titans, at Miami), go 3-1 against the atrocious AFC East (yes, this means they're going to lose at home to the Patriots; I've accepted it, the sooner you do the better for your sanity), split their division games, and split with their non-conference games (a pretty up-in-the-air NFC North), then they're looking at a 9-7 season.  

Maybe they catch some breaks, beat the Dolphins and go 4-2 in the division, that puts them at 11-5.

The X-Factor this season is the guys they've drafted since 2010.  There are only four guys on the roster from  the 2006-2009 draft classes -- Woodley, Timmons, Ziggy Hood, and David Johnson.  There are five players still on the roster from the 2002-2005 draft classes -- Ben, Troy, Keisel, Ike Taylor, and Heath.  With no young veterans stepping up -- and the guys from those 2006-2009 classes should all be playing vital roles on the team, making up the core group of talented skill position players -- they have a bunch of old guys that need to keep playing at a high level and really young guys that need to grow up in a hurry.  Assuming that the old guard doesn't fall apart this season -- and, aside from Troy missing at least 5-6 games every season with various injuries, it doesn't look like they will fall apart -- then it's up to the 2010-Present draft classes to make up that talent gap and deliver.

If they can deliver in a big way, then you're looking at a 12-4 or 13-3 season.  I don't think they're all going to deliver in a big way.  I think some of them will make a big leap forward, some of them will be average, and some of them will fall off.  When that happens, you're looking at 8-8 or 7-9 or 9-7.  If injuries keep mounting and the depth of this team is really tested, then it's a 6-10 or 5-11 situation, but I don't think that's going to happen.

They're an average team and they're going to finish with an average record.  They'll do slightly better or worse depending on luck.  I've seen so many successful seasons in the last decade or so that I really don't care how well (or not) they do during the regular season. I believe that there's a big enough talent gap between them and the favorites from the AFC that I know they won't advance to (and win) the Super Bowl. If they're not going to win the Super Bowl and are probably going to be average, I just don't want to be bored when it's happening.

It all starts on Sunday against the Tennessee Titans and, the good lord willing, it will be exciting.