Steelers N At

Handicapping the Championship Games

2012-01-19T13:11:00.000-08:00

Through the first two rounds I went 5-3 in the Wild Card games and 5-3 in the Divisional Round games, so at least I'm consistent.

I'm actually 7-1 ATS, I've just been horribly wrong (3-5 record) when betting against the Over/Under, which is why I've only won three parlays out of eight bets. This is on MyBookie not real, actual money. Gambling is illegal, dontcha know.

On to the picks. Home team in CAPS...

NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Hated Ravens:

When this line opened at 7.5, I was decided that I was going to take Baltimore and not look back. My thinking was that the Patriots weren't going to win this game by more than a touchdown. Then it dropped to 7. Now, if New England wins by a touchdown, it's a push. I'd rather take a loss than a push because I'm an idiot, so I'm now prepared to go big or go home.

I originally predicted that the hated Ravens were going to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLVI, even going so far as to state that they could beat the Patriots in Foxborough. Time and sanity have made me reconsider that position.

Baltimore doesn't have the personnel to match up against Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, though I think their cornerbacks are physical enough to at least slow Wes Welker down. I don't think they can get consistent pressure on Tom Brady with just four guys -- they weren't able to against Houston and Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil weren't able to get to Brady in the Denver game -- which means he'll have enough time to scan the field and throw the ball to the tight end that's most open. New England has gotten better at protecting the football as the season has progressed and the hated Ravens will need to force at least three turnovers to win this game.

I am also taking the over. That's a pretty bold move, considering Baltimore has a great defense and the total points is 50. I think that the hated Ravens -- especially Ray Rice catching balls out of the backfield -- will be able to score points on this craptastic Patriots defense, but I don't think they'll be able to do enough.

This Baltimore team isn't built to win shoot-outs and I think that's what this game will turn into. New England is built to win shoot-outs and that's exactly what they want this game to turn into. They're at home, they're playing well, they're feeling confident, and they're just far enough removed from their last Super Bowl appearance (and disappointment) to be hungry to return.

On top of that, they've won nine straight and only fail to cover a total points of 50 in one of those games (34-3 win over Kansas City where they took their foot off the gas). They're also 6-1-2 against a seven point spread in their last nine.

SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5) over NY Giants:

This opened at 49ers by 2.5 with an O/U of 42 and it hasn't moved. I think it's just right. Either you believe the Niners will cover or the Giants will win. Either you think it's going to be a fairly high scoring game or you think it's going to be a snooze fest. I happen to think San Francisco wins by at least a field goal and I'm taking the Over.

I picked against New York twice already this postseason and I was wrong twice. The first time I overvalued the Falcons and the second time they were playing the freaking Packers. I'll admit that I'm not as sold on the Giants as the rest of the world. I'll admit that I'm probably too enamored with the 49ers. I know that New York is playing better football than they were in November (when they lost at San Francisco 27-20).

Here's the thing: The 49ers are also playing better football than they were in November. They've proved they can put up points. They've proved they can win shoot-outs in pressure situations (like they did against the Saints last week). Alex Smith has shown that he can carry this team -- for brief periods of time -- if need be. They also force a lot of turnovers, run the ball well, and stop the run on defense. They can get to the quarterback and they can play man or zone. This is a very versatile team and I think they're good enough to beat the streaking Giants.

Also, I watched that game in November. The final score is misleading. San Francisco controlled the game on both sides of the ball, but entered the fourth quarter trailing 13-12. If they dominate the Giants like they did in the regular season, then they'll be the ones in the lead heading into the final quarter.

Even if the defense unravels like they did against the Saints, the offense has shown that it can keep up and score points late in games. As much as I'd love to see another Giants-Patriots Super Bowl (with Eli Manning again shattering Tom Brady's dreams), I don't see it happening.

Handicapping the Divisional Round

2012-01-13T16:19:00.000-08:00

I started out Wild Card weekend with a bang, going 4-0 ATS and O/U. Then I came back to Earth, but that was more the fault of those stupid, stupid New York Giants and their stupid, stupid victory than a case of me getting Tebowed. I finished 5-3, which puts me well on my way towards winning the AFC West securing a home playoff game.

On to the picks. Home team in CAPS...

SAN FRANCISCO (+3.5) over NOLA:

I think the 49ers will win this game outright (with a moneyline of +173, no less), but that last half point is really enticing. If the 49ers lose, I think they only lose by a field goal. Take the Under, because the O/U for this game is pretty ridiculous at 47. It's gone down at least a point since it opened, which means that lots of people have been taking the Under, so Vegas is trying to find a number that will convince people to bet the Over. I remain unconvinced. The total needs to drop to 43 for me to take the Over.

This goes beyond the fact that I don't trust the Saints offense outdoors. I also don't trust them on the road, where they went 5-3. San Francisco went 7-1 at home. In their three losses, they lost by 3, 2, and 10 points. They don't get blown out. They don't give up a lot of points. They play close, low scoring games. They played in only three games this season where they would've topped the Over for this game. One of those games was their 48-3 ba-thwumping of Tampa, one of them was a 33-17 victory over the Seahawks where they scored two touchdowns on special teams, the last was the season finale against the Rams, when they had already clinched a bye and let up on defense after taking a 34-14 lead.

The 49ers have the pass rushing talent up front to pressure Brees with four guys and the talent in the back seven to hang with the Saints receivers. Their run defense was ranked #1 in the league, allowing an average of only 77.3 yards per game and only two rushing touchdowns all season (both of which came in the meaningless season finale).

They're better than people think, they play well enough on defense to contain the potent New Orleans offense, and the Saints lose just enough off their fastball on the road and outdoors that the 49ers win a tight, low scoring game.

NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over Denver:

Yes, I know. I'm totally going to get Tebowed on this one.

These two teams met in Week 15 and the Patriots won 41-23. That game was in Denver. Total points in that game (64) were well above the O/U for this game (50). New England would also have covered this spread.

Denver's a hot team and I'm not trying to undermine what they did to the Steelers (a game which, by the way, would also have covered the Over at 52 points). They're also a streaky team. When they're feeling confident, they're pretty much unstoppable. When they're feeling down, they only manage a field goal at home against the Chiefs. They have every reason to feel confident right now, but I think they've gone past confident and have crossed over into territory that is much, much more dangerous.

Let me explain.

The week before the Wild Card round, I followed the Broncos on Twitter because I wanted to catch news that I might not get somewhere else. I forgot to unfollow them after the loss. On Tuesday, they posted a bunch of quotes from interviews with players. The quotes were regarding that Week 15 loss to the Patriots. When I read the quotes, I hadn't looked up the score, I just knew New England won. From the quotes -- things like, "we just needed to make a couple more plays" and "we missed a couple of opportunities" -- I assumed that they lost by a field goal or a touchdown. The quotes I read weren't even close to being indicative of an 18 point home loss. They've gone past confident and they're in a much, much more dangerous place. They're delusional. Since they were able to play their game their way against the NFL's best defense at home last week, the assumption is that they'll put everything together again and play their game their way on the road next week. The Steelers have the #1 defense, the Patriots have the #31 defense. Easy peasy, lemon squeezy.

The problem is that Bill Belichick has made a career out of making sure that teams don't get to play their game their way. This game is in Foxborough. The Patriots tend to start games out fast. If they jump out to a 14-0 lead at home against this Broncos team, it's going to be a shock to the system, like a six year old watching Belichick curb stomp the Easter Bunny.

I think the Patriots jump out to a big early lead, the Broncos re-group at halftime, and they come out fighting in the second half. I don't think they'll get anywhere close to coming back, but they've got way too much potential on offense to not score a bunch of points against a crappy New England defense. I think Champ Bailey can handle Wes Welker, but Heath Miller gouged the Broncos pretty bad last week. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are way better receivers and are way more involved in the Patriots offense than Miller is for the Steelers.

Denver allowed 23 points to a banged up Steelers offense that had half a quarterback and three backup offensive linemen. If Isaac Redman can rush for 7.1 yards per carry and 121 total yards behind that offensive line, then some combination of BenJarvis Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, and Stevan Ridley will be able to do just as good behind a very capable, very healthy Patriots offensive line.

Houston (+9) over BALTIMORE:
I think that the hated Ravens will win this game, but I don't think they'll cover. The Texans showed last week that they're a good team and they deserve to be here. Most of the guys on that team had never played in a playoff game before. They all realized how great it was to win in the postseason and they're bound and determined not to found out how bad it sucks to lose.

If Houston can't run the ball, they're dead meat. Their offensive line knows this. In order to run the ball successfully, you need to win at the point of attack. Winning at the point of attack is equal parts talent, scheme, and determination. The hated Ravens have a stout front seven and defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano has brought back the swagger and intimidation factor to this unit. Houston has one of the best lines in the league and their offensive line coach has brought his charges up from the dredges to the elite the last six seasons. Scheme and talent is a wash. Determination is the X factor.

Houston's offensive line knows that the season is riding on them. Baltimore's front seven knows that, if they're able to stop the run, they can tee off on TJ Yates and win this game easily. I'd say the Texans offensive line has more motivation and they'll be more determined.

If Houston can run the ball, they'll be able to score points. I think the hated Ravens can score enough to win, even against a tough Texans defense. When the lines opened, the Over/Under was 38.5. It has since moved down to 36. I was willing to take the Over at 38.5, so I'm delighted to take it at 36. This won't be a shootout, but it doesn't need to be. Everyone was predicting a low scoring game in Denver (including me) and look how that turned out.

NY Giants (+8) over PACKERS:
Again, I think the Packers win, but I don't think they win by more than a touchdown. The last time these two teams met, the score was 38-35, which is probably why the Over/Under is 52.5 and hasn't moved since it opened. These are two proud defenses that don't want to get kicked around like that again. They're also two great offenses, but I think the defenses will step up to keep the score from getting too crazy.

Kickoff temperatures are going to be in the low teens. The last time these two teams faced a situation like this -- cold playoff game in Green Bay in 2007 -- the Giants won 20-17 in overtime. I'm thinking something similar, with the Packers winning by a touchdown.

The X factor here is Aaron Rodgers. He's well rested and wants to shine in his first home playoff game. The crowd will be behind him and his teammates will be fired up. If they get on a roll, it could be Packers and the Over, but I don't think that happens.

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Broncos

2012-01-11T11:51:00.000-08:00

Only piece of Good News: They don't have to play in the Divisional Round. If they needed to travel to Foxborough to play the Patriots, there would be, like, 15 guys on the active roster. According to Tomlin's press conference on Monday, pretty much everyone suffered a catastrophic injury on Sunday and they would've only dressed two offensive linemen against New England. That's an exaggeration, but not much of one.

If there's one other silver lining, I was impressed by how the offense still hung in there and managed to put up 23 points. They were missing their starting tailback, they were down three offensive linemen, Ben Roethlisberger was at about 50 percent capacity on his banged up ankle, and they were stuck in a situation where they needed to throw the ball and the defense knew it.

Ike Taylor had the worst game of his professional career. Dick LeBeau didn't adjust from man coverage to zone when it became obvious in the second quarter that the Steelers corners couldn't handle the Denver receivers in man coverage. It could be that Ryan Clark was the X factor. Without him to cover for Troy's freelancing, there were big holes in the back end. But, I'm not ready to say that Taylor sucks because of one game. I think LeBeau would come to my house and beat me up if I even hinted at saying something like that about him and I would deserve it. William Gay leaves a lot to be desired, but he's a better option than Bryant McFadden or Curtis Brown. Troy did a great job on run defense, but he was too committed to the line of scrimmage, even after Tebow started completing long passes past overwhelmed Steelers cornerbacks. Do I think they should cut him? I do not, that would be dumb.

The defensive line was all backups and Jason Worilds was in for Lamarr Woodley for most of the game. Without pressure from the front seven -- some more blitzing would have been nice -- the secondary was left shorthanded and you saw the results. Given that this defense is going to undergo a major overhaul in the offseason due to salary cap issues, we may have had a glimpse into the future. That's really bad news.

Ike Redman actually averaged 7.0 yards a carry. Mike Wallace had a nice touchdown run. Heath Miller, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jerricho Cotchery chipped in. Roethlisberger did the best he could on one leg. The interception was inexcusable, but, like everyone else on offense, you could at least claim that he tried hard and didn't give up.

This was a maximum effort game by the Steelers on both sides of the ball, just not maximum focus. Wallace had a couple of critical drops and his head definitely wasn't in the game -- he hasn't been on the same page with Roethlisberger since Ben's ankle injury. Mundy and Troy didn't cover well on deep passes. Taylor often forgot that he was supposed to be covering Thomas. They didn't switch up to zone just to keep the plays in front of them.

Tim Tebow averaged 15 yards an attempt and 31 yards a completion. He averaged five yards a carry. Demaryius Thomas averaged 51 yards per catch. They had some ridiculous numbers on offense. They got on a roll in the second quarter and were almost unstoppable.

That's the thing about this Broncos team: They're dangerous to opponents because they feed off momentum and confidence more than any team I've ever seen. If they get on a roll, they can beat anybody, including the Patriots and the Packers. The way they're set up on offense, if they can hit on some big plays in the passing game against teams that have trouble defending the pass (Patriots are 31st against the pass, Green Bay is 32nd), then they open up the rest of the offense and can mix in runs from Tebow and the other members of their top-rated rushing attack to keep a defense off balance and possess the football.

Denver is also a danger to themselves because they feed off momentum and confidence more than any team I've ever seen. If things aren't clicking for them early and the Patriots/Packers/hated Ravens jump out to a big lead, then the Broncos will start to lose confidence and the wheels will start to come off. They may get hot late, but by then it will be too late. If the Steelers had scored touchdowns on those two first quarter possessions, the game would have unfolded much differently. I'm not saying the Broncos got lucky and the Steelers deserved to win. Denver played well and they played better than the Steelers. They deserved to win, the Steelers deserved to lose. I'm saying that controlling momentum and keeping the Broncos down is the key to victory. The Steelers didn't do that, they didn't capitalize on the opportunities they had early, and they paid the price. If future opponents do the same thing this postseason, then Denver has a great shot at some upsets.

But, the bad news for the Broncos is that the Packers, Patriots, and hated Ravens are all much better in the red zone than the Steelers. They also force more turnovers on defense. That gives those teams the ability to put Denver away early and keep them out of the game late. The Steelers didn't have that ability against anyone this season, which is one of the reasons why they'll have the same view of the games as the rest of us (in a roundabout way, I mean. I'm sure they have nicer TVs and more attractive people in their living rooms.)

And, hey, I say this every time the Steelers fall short of winning the Super Bowl: They've been there eight times, they've won six, and they've had only nine losing seasons since 1970. That's a damn impressive run and we, as Steeler fans, should appreciate it. And not be spoiled by it.

I was talking to a friend of mine yesterday and he had a good point. The team has been on quite a run since Ben Roethlisberger took over as the starting quarterback (and before that, but the Super Bowl appearances and AFC Championship Game appearances really started to pile up starting in 2004). Steeler fans have been spoiled by that run. Maybe it's time for a bad run, so that we can learn to appreciate success again instead of just expecting it and turning up our noses at it when it just isn't successful enough. I'm not saying I want the Steelers to suck. I'm saying that it may be the best thing for us as fans, at least in the long term.

As long as we still beat Baltimore. And the Patriots.

Tebowlicious: Steelers at Broncos Preview:

2012-01-06T13:04:00.000-08:00

I am becoming more and more worried and pessimistic about this game as the days go by. When I heard that the Broncos won the AFC West by losing, I was ecstatic. It meant that the Steelers would have a chance to dismantle and humiliate Football Jesus and I'm all about the schadenfreude (holy crap, schadenfreude was in the spell check dictionary).

I wasn't overly concerned about the fact that Rashard Mendenhall got placed on IR and I was convinced that Ben Roethlisberger's ankle would only improve, so long as he could continue to just walk it off and/or rub some dirt in it.

Now that we're about 48 hours from kickoff, I'm more than a little nervous, since Ryan Clark can't play, Pouncey has been ruled out, Roethlisberger suffered a setback in the Cleveland game (still listed as probable, though), Polamalu and Harrison haven't practiced this week (somehow listed as probable), Mewelde Moore is out, and Keisel missed two practices this week. My guess is that, since this is the playoffs, everyone that hasn't been ruled out is going to play. But, how well will they play in the thin air at Mile High Stadium Presented by Sports Authority? How limited will they be?

Also, running backs coach Kirby Wilson was badly burned when a fire broke out in his kitchen. At least Lamarr Woodley looks like he's ready to go, so that's a silver lining.

When I found out the Steelers were going to be playing in Denver, I was looking forward to a pretty easy win. Then I remembered that the offense seems to have peaked at 13 points a game ever since Roethlisberger hurt his ankle. Then I remembered that it was a road game and the Broncos play tough at home. Then everyone got hurt and guys started dropping off and becoming unavailable for the game. This morning, an assistant coach got burned in a house fire. There are a lot of bad omens surrounding this game. This game is officially making me very nervous.

Having said all that, I stand by my Wild Card prediction. This is going to be an ugly, stupid game. It will not end quickly. I will not enjoy it. Denver will cover and you should take the under (even though it dropped to 33.5), but they will not win outright.

Here's why: The Steelers have destroyed bad quarterbacks all season and Tim Tebow is a bad quarterback. It doesn't matter what stat you use: quarterback rating (72.9), QBR (30.5), or QBERT (6.385). He has only 1,729 yards passing in 11 starts, his completion percentage is atrocious (46.5%), and he's been sacked 33 times. He's also fumbled 13 times. I know that he's 7-4 and that he's money in the fourth quarter, but I also know that more accurate passers with better numbers still struggled to put up even respectable numbers against the Steeler pass defense.

The more accurate/better numbers list includes: Tavaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Blaine Gabbert, Curtis Painter, Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace, Kellen Clemens (OK, that one's debatable, he may be a less gifted passer than Tebow), and Tyler Palko. Those guys combined to score 74 points on the Pittsburgh defense and 40 of those points came from Curtis Painter and Kevin Kolb.

They should be able to focus on Willis McGahee and contain him. They have the personnel in the secondary to switch off between the Cover 3 looks that Buffalo used to stop Tebow and the man coverage looks the Patriots and Chiefs used. They just need to remember to stay focused and stay on their man when they switch away from zone coverage. Tebow was able to burn the Vikings secondary for a couple of long touchdowns because the defensive backs were too focused on him and forgot to stay on their man. I can see Troy Polamalu making that mistake and Ryan Clark won't be there to cover Troy's mistakes. Then again, pretty much every quarterback in the league was able to burn the Vikings secondary this season, so maybe it just boils down to Tebow not being very good.

The point is that the Steelers shouldn't need to score much to win this game. They won't score much, either, which is why you should take the under.

Just remember: A win's a win.

Prediction:
Steelers 13, Broncos 9

2011 Playoff Predictions

2012-01-05T19:24:00.000-08:00

I don't think this is the year for the Steelers, but I never think it's their year. I didn't think it was their year in 2005 or 2008 or 2010, but I totally thought it was their year in 1998 and 2006, so there's that. Having said that, there are only four teams that scare me in both brackets.

In order of most scary to least scary:

The Saints (indoors)
Green Bay
Hated Ravens
New England

If I were a playoff team, those are, in order, the four teams I would not want to play. I'm not saying that anyone else in the bracket is a pushover, I'm just saying those are the scary teams. Given that New Orleans has zero chance of playing indoors throughout the postseason, I don't think they're going to make it. If they somehow make it all the way to Indy, I feel sorry for the AFC team that has the misfortune of playing them in a dome.

On with the predictions. Hopefully, I'll do slightly better than I did last year. By "slightly better" I mean "not completely getting everything wrong and looking like an idiot."

AFC Bracket:

I know that TJ Yates has an injured shoulder and that the Texans backed into the playoffs. I also know that it's his non-throwing shoulder and he's practiced all week. Cincinnati didn't exactly storm into the playoffs. They went 3-5 in the second half of the season. They beat Arizona, Cleveland, and St. Louis. They went 0-7 against playoff teams. Houston wins this weekend and then has to travel to Baltimore, where they already lost convincingly way back when Matt Schaub was their quarterback.

I'd also like to take this opportunity to say that the Bengals really scare me. They got AJ Green and Andy Dalton in this year's draft and they fleeced Oakland out of a bunch of picks in the Carson Palmer trade. They scare me more than anyone in the AFC over the next five seasons, including the Patriots and hated Ravens.

The Texans have themselves an exceptional offensive line and a couple of great running backs. They also have a solid defense, especially now that Wade Phillips is back on the sidelines. But, they still have TJ Yates as their quarterback and that's not going to cut it against the Ben Roethlisbergers and Joe Flaccos and Tom Bradys of this bracket.

Football Jesus will also fall short against a real defense and a real quarterback, but that game is going to be ugly. If I wasn't obligated to watch it, I think I would pass. There are going to be bad passes, turnovers, failed red zone opportunities, and half the Steelers hobbling around with injuries. It's going to end with someone winning 16-12 and I believe that someone is going to be the Steelers.

Houston travels to Baltimore and gets crushed. The Steelers will have to go to Foxborough, where the Patriots are 0-2 in their last two postseason games. I don't think that means that they just roll over and die. The fact that they have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick and Wes Welker and two of the best tight ends in the NFL, plus a great offensive line, makes them dangerous in a single elimination tournament. Since I know I'll be wrong anyway, I may as well pick the Steelers to go to New England and finally beat Tom Brady when it matters.

If the Steelers play the hated Ravens at any point in the playoffs, that's going to be Baltimore's Super Bowl. They're going to go all out and they will not allow themselves to lose. If the hated Ravens need to go to Foxborough, I think they still win. They have the best individual athlete in the AFC bracket (Ray Rice) and the best defense. They have a veteran roster that is loaded with postseason experience. They used the offseason and regular season to prepare themselves for this run. They will beat anyone that stands in their way, even the Steelers.

You know who says it's tough to beat a team three times in one season? Teams that already lost twice. It's hard to beat any team once, especially when that team is a playoff team. The fact that you already beat them twice only gives you confidence. It also gives you film that you can look at and say, "Oh, yeah. That's how we beat those guys the other two times. Let's do that again."

As much as it pains me to type this, the Hated Baltimore Ravens will be your AFC representative in this year's Super Bowl. Now for the NFC...

NFC Bracket:

If the road to the Super in the NFC went through the Super Dome, the Saints would play in -- and win -- Super Bowl XLVI. But, they have to go outdoors and the non-dome version of the Saints don't scare me. I think that they crush Detroit at home on Saturday, but I think they fold outside the friendly confines of their dome in San Francisco.

The 49ers are a great team, but they're not a championship team. They're too conservative, too unreliable when they get inside the 20, and Alex Smith is their quarterback. Smith has done a good job of making the right decisions and not turning the ball over, but he's not going to be able to cut it when he has to throw down against Aaron Rodgers and an opportunistic Packers defense.

Eli Manning is a great story and the Giants have a lot of playoff experience, but that only goes so far when it comes to bridging the talent gap. Atlanta has Matty Ice, a still-feisty Michael Turner, and an explosive offense. They don't play enough defense to win it all, though. The Falcons traded away their future to get Julio Jones and make it to the next level, but I don't think they've done enough to get past Green Bay.

For a 15-1 team, the Packers aren't a prohibitive favorite. One of the reasons people are down on Green Bay is because they finished dead last in total defense in terms of yardage allowed. But, they finished 14th in points allowed and first in total points. When it comes down to it, they have an aggressive bend-don't-break defense and an incredibly efficient offense. They also have the best quarterback in the bracket in Rodgers.

Atlanta beats New York, New Orleans beats Detroit, San Francisco beats New Orleans, Green Bay beats Atlanta, Packers beat 49ers to advance to the Super Bowl.

That means it'll be a Packers-Hated Ravens Super Bowl and I'm not sure who I'll root for. The old adage is that defense wins championships. That will be put to the test this postseason. Will the Packers be the first team to finish last in total defense but still win the Super Bowl? Will Baltimore have enough on defense to slow Green Bay down? I'm really not sure.

My gut feeling is that the hated Ravens protect the ball well enough to not make key mistakes against the Packers. I think they score enough points and play well enough on defense that they can win a close game.

It pains me even more to say this, but...

Predictions:

AFC Playoffs:
Houston over Cincinnati
Steelers over Denver
Baltimore over Houston
Steelers over Patriots
Baltimore over Steelers

NFC Playoffs:
Saints over Lions
Falcons over Giants
Packers over Falcons
49ers over Saints
Packers over 49ers

Super Bowl:
Hated Ravens over Packers

Handicapping the Wild Card Round

2012-01-04T17:43:00.000-08:00

After my resounding victory in NFL Pick Em this season, I've decided to pick each round of the postseason against the spread. This is a more challenging way to do things, but I have confidence in my abilities. Onto the picks (home team in CAPS)...

HOUSTON (-3) over Cincinnati:
I thought this line was going to go down when it opened, because so many people were going to take the Bengals in an upset. It hasn't moved since it opened at 3, but you should still take it as soon as you can in case the Mighty Ginger's mysterious "illness" starts to swing it towards the Texans. If the line moves to 3.5 or, even worse, 4, then it's not worth it. This is a textbook 21-17 or 27-23 or 28-24 game. At four points, it's a push. At three points, it's easy money.

In the playoffs, it's all about quarterback play. Cincinnati has the edge there, but the Texans have the edge everywhere else, including the fact that they're playing at home. The over/under on this one is surprisingly low (38.5), but I think that Vegas is thinking that two solid defenses will keep this game low scoring.

My feeling is that it will unfold like Super Bowl XXXVIII between the Panthers and the Patriots. Both teams will start out conservative and try to feel each other out, then they'll come out swinging in the second half. If the first half ends 10-7, don't panic. They'll make up for it in the second half.

NEW ORLEANS (-10.5) over Detroit:
I tried to talk my way into picking the Lions. I really did. That line is HUGE and Detroit is a solid team. The Saints play crappy defense. But, really, I'd need a 15-17 point line to pick against the Saints at home. They're just unstoppable.

NOLA's margins of victory at home this season: 17, 7, 55, 11, 25, 14 (against Detroit), 29, 28. They're 8-0 at home, there's only one game on that list where they wouldn't have covered, and they already covered that spread against the Lions earlier this season.

I know that the over is 58.5 and that's a ridiculous number. But... total points in the eight games this season in the Super Dome: 43, 73, 69, 43, 73, 48, 63, 62. That's five out of eight total games and three out of the last four. They might hit the Over by halftime.

Atlanta (+3) over NY GIANTS:
New York is 4-4 at home and they're shaky as hell. I think the Falcons cover and win outright, so take the moneyline at +136.

These are two high-flying offenses and two teams that don't play a lot of defense. An over/under of 47 actually seems a bit low. I see the Falcons winning this one 34-20 or so.

DENVER (+9) over Steelers:
Don't get me wrong. I think the Steelers win this one. I just think that, whoever came up with this line, they didn't watch the Steelers play the past month or so. With an ailing Ben Roethlisberger behind center, I find it hard to believe that the Steelers will score enough to cover this spread, regardless of where the game is played.

This strikes me as another grinding 13-9 or 14-10 or 16-13 victory for the Black and Gold. I think they win, but I don't think they roll. And take the Under, even though total points is an extremely low 34.

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Browns

2012-01-02T15:22:00.000-08:00

Good News first:

I am bound by international law to state that a win is a win.
Hines Ward got his 1,000th reception, becoming only the eighth player in NFL history to reach that milestone. It's an impressive accomplishment and I think that solidifies him as a Hall of Fame player. He's got the rings and the reputation, he just needed the stats. Now, the 1,000th reception itself was definitely a cheesy call and they've been feeding him easy catches the last few weeks, but I don't think that taints the accomplishment at all. He earned the other 990 or so receptions and he deserves to have his name up there with the all time greats.
I think Ike Taylor was snubbed for the Pro Bowl. I also think the secondary as a whole is playing at a very high level. The front seven hasn't been getting as much pressure this season with Woodley and Harrison missing a lot of time, which also makes it so that Lawrence Timmons and James Farrior need to spend more time in coverage. In past seasons, the front seven bailed the secondary out by generating pressure on the quarterback. This season, the secondary bailed the front seven out in a big way. I know that Seneca Wallace isn't exactly Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, but he was held to 171 yards on 41 attempts (4.3 yards per attempt) with only 16 completions, no touchdowns, and an interception. The defense in general has been destroying average quarterbacks all season and they held Andy Dalton and Tom Brady in check. If not for those last two minutes in the last game against the hated Ravens, the pass defense wouldn't have a black mark on their resume this season. Now, if only they could intercept some passes.
That's the thing. This is a championship defense if they can force some turnovers. They've actually forced 13 fumbles on the season, but they've only recovered four of those. They have 11 interceptions, so that's 15 total turnovers forced in a 16 game season. That's no good. It's true that you can make your own luck when it comes to turnovers, but it's also true that a lot of it depends on how the ball bounces. What if they'd had some lucky bounces on some more of those forced fumbles and had recovered nine or ten of them? On offense, they've lost 13 of 16 fumbles, so the ball definitely isn't bouncing their way this season. How many tipped balls were there on Sunday? If the ball hasn't been bouncing their way this season, it's highly unlikely that it will start bouncing their way in the playoffs. That means this isn't a championship defense. Maybe this belongs in Bad News? We'll leave it here.
Ben Roethlisberger made it through the entire game without aggravating his ankle injury. It sucks that Mendenhall went down, but Roethlisberger is the only indispensable player on offense.
They outgained Cleveland 360-240 on Sunday and they outgained their opponents 5957-4349 on the season and they finished with the #1 scoring defense, the #1 pass defense, and #1 in total defense. That's pretty damned impressive.

Now for the Bad News:

They didn't have a huge edge in point differential, despite the fact that they gained an average of 100 yards per game more than their opponents. They finished 22nd in scoring offense. Part of that was that the defense wasn't generating turnovers and giving the offense a short field. The other part was struggles in the red zone. This is a great offense between the 20s, which can get you to 12-4 with the support of a great defense. Can't get you to the Super Bowl so much.
Mike Wallace seems to be regressing. Roethlisberger is not targeting him as much as he did early the season and that's probably part of it. But, Wallace was also caught not paying attention on a couple of plays where Roethlisberger targeted him. Wallace was definitely a bigger part of the offense earlier in the season and defenses started paying more attention to him, which opened things up for Antonio Brown. Brown took full advantage of those opportunities and now defenses are starting to watch out for him. It'll be interesting to see who the Broncos have Champ Bailey cover in the Wild Card round. If I were them, I'd put Bailey on Brown and roll the dice that Wallace doesn't make a game changing play.
Rashard Mendenhall's knee injury is a bummer, but I don't think it's a catastrophic bummer. The real issue is that Mewelde Moore is also dealing with a knee injury and Baron Batch has been on injured reserve all season. A position that was already thin in terms of depth just got thinner. If anything happens to Issac Redman, the offense is in big trouble. But, the good news here is that Redman is probably a better back in this offense, provided he can keep from fumbling the ball. Since the Steelers don't have a dominant offensive line that blows guys off the ball, they don't open very many big holes. Mendenhall can do more with a big hole than Redman, but Redman can make more out of a small hole (or no hole) than Mendenhall. But, the fumbling problem is a big problem. He didn't have ball security issues heading into Week 17, so let's just hope that it was a one-game-jitters situation.
Ramon Foster got dinged up, Pouncey looked a little sluggish, and I have no idea what kind of shape Legursky is going to be in. The Steelers don't have a ton of talent up front and starting backups of players that don't have a ton of talent is no way to win a championship.

The biggest piece of bad news is that the hated Ravens also won, which means the Steelers are the 5 seed instead of the 2 seed. I'm not a big believer in home field advantage when it comes to the playoffs. The Steelers won three games on the road on their way to Super Bowl XL. It can be done. My problem with the lack of a bye. I think Roethlisberger and the other walking wounded could've really used that extra week of rest. In addition, someone else could've done the Steelers a favor and knocked off Baltimore, possibly New England as well.

The two teams that scare me the most in this postseason bracket -- the Patriots and the hated Ravens -- are also the two teams that are in the best position to make a deep run. That sucks.

But, ultimately, unless the offense can take better care of the ball and seal the deal when they get inside the 20 and the defense can force some turnovers, this is just a really good team that went 12-4 and went to the playoffs this season.

Rivalry Week: Steelers at Browns Preview

2011-12-31T11:26:00.000-08:00

I have a bunch of excuses as to why this post is going up on Saturday afternoon as opposed to Thursday or Friday afternoon. The sun was in my eyes, I had a flat tire, there was a car coming, it was end of year at work, I cut my finger on Thursday night and typing sucks. But, I think it ultimately breaks down to the fact that I haven't been able to get fired up for this game.

The Steelers are playing Cleveland and Cleveland does not, in fact, rock. This used to be a rivalry game during the first Cleveland iteration, back when Andre Rison and Matt Stover played for the team, but the second coming of the Browns has been pretty disappointing. Plus which, I came into the season knowing that Cleveland was going to suck -- then again, I also though Detroit and Cincinnati were going to suck, so there's that -- so I circled this game as a potential late-season blowout or as an opportunity for the Steelers to rest their starters. I also thought the Steelers were going to sweep the season series against the hated Ravens, so there's that on top of that.

Then there's the fact that this is the last game of the season and the two teams are, once again, headed in opposite directions. I remembered Week 17 of the 2010 season, where the Steelers were crushing the Browns in the third quarter and my cousin and I decided to head off to the casino. I remembered all the times that the two teams met this century under similar circumstances and couldn't remember any of those games ending well for Cleveland. So, I did what any upstanding member of the Internet would do: I looked it up.

Thus far this century, the Steelers and Browns have faced each other four times either in Week 16 or Week 17 (three times in Week 17, one time in Week 16). All four times (2001, 2005, 2008, and 2010 seasons), the Steelers have been playing for playoff seeding and Cleveland has been playing for pride. Final scores of those games, in order: 28-7, 41-0, 31-0, 41-9. That's some history right there. And, since the Browns roster has turned over so many times in the last ten years, there are way more Steelers that have experienced that history than Browns. The Steelers own the Browns late in the season and they know it. If you play for Cleveland, the only hope for victory is that you weren't a part of that history and you can attempt to start a new chapter.

But, given the talent disparity between the two teams, I don't think that new chapter starts on Sunday. With something to play for, the Steelers will be motivated and angry. With nothing to play for but pride, Cleveland players are probably just looking to get through the season without getting hurt. The only wild card in play is the fact that the Browns players probably aren't very happy with James Harrison and they may be motivated to take some of that anger out on Ben Roethlisberger.

I don't think that Roethlisberger needs to play for the Steelers to win this game and I don't think he should play. But, my feedback and suggestions for the Steelers have largely been met with resistance and restraining orders. He has practiced all week and says that he intends to play at least 25 snaps. Since Ben generally gets what Ben wants, that means Bruce Arians should include a lot of max protect blocking schemes for when the Steelers do decide to pass. I think Cleveland is going to come after him.

More to the point, I think the Browns need to come after the Steelers on offense and defense if they want to win this game. Pat Schurmur has been extremely conservative thus far this season and that conservative approach has led to a 4-11 record. He's overmatched and outgunned and he needs to go big or go home if he wants to win this game. He needs to throw in some gadget plays on offense and throw the ball down the field. He has Seneca Wallace at his disposal and Wallace has enough arm strength to get the ball vertical and enough athletic ability -- especially when you add Josh Cribbs to the mix -- to run some trick plays and catch the Steelers defenders asleep at the switch. Schurmur has the coverage guys in the secondary to take some chances with overload blitzes. He has a lot of the tools necessary to take his best shot at the Steelers and possibly pull out a victory.

The issue is that he's had these tools all season and he hasn't used them. Does he throw the kitchen sink at the Steelers on Sunday, or does he stick with the same game plan that got him to 4-11? When you're 9-6 and fighting for playoff position, you do whatever it takes to win. When you're 4-11 and thinking about the offseason, you do whatever it takes to avoid criticism. Sure, ending the season with a win would be positive, but it would also open up questions as to why Sunday's game plan wasn't used all season.

Will Schurmur go all out or will he dance with who brung him? I think he'll dance with who brung him and that will bring his team another loss on Sunday. Steelers roll.

Prediction:
Steelers 34, Browns 6

Weidman's Picks, Week 17

2011-12-28T17:45:00.000-08:00

(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)

Alrighty - All I've got left to play for is pride and finishing strong. Basically, I'm the Browns of this Pick 'Em stupidity.

Carolina at NOLA:
Easy pick to start this out. Carolina has been a disappointment all season, and NOLA is still looking to kick some ass at home.

Buffalo at Pats:
Might as well finish my season's picks with the old tried-and-true "Don't pick against Brady, especially at home" tactic.

Chicago at Minnesota:
Usually, the pick is to take the home team in close games, but I still can't bring myself to pick the Vikings.

Jets at Miami:
Much like the above, I just can't bring myself to pick the Fish, even though they're slightly favored and at home. The Jets have had a rough time of it, but Miami just sucks.

Niners at Rams:
Another easy pick. I still won't pick the Rams until they prove themselves, and the Niners still kick ass. I'd love the Rams to beat them and end their season with a (meaningless) statement, but it's not gonna happen.

Detroit at Pack:
Pack's at home, and Detroit is still Detroit. They're going to the playoffs, and I'm sure they're glad for that. Unless the Pack slacks off to save energy for the post season, then they're going to run away with this. The thought of them slacking off is the only explanation for Vegas favoring Detroit by three and a half when they're playing a team like the Pack at home - a place they haven't lost all season.

Washington at Philly:
Neither team has anything left to play for besides pride. The Eagles need to at least end their season 50/50 so that they're not a total laughing stock (what with their Dream Team and all.) They're at home, and Washington is pathetic.

Indy at Jacksonville:
You know what? Eff it. Indy has won two in a row. I said I wouldn't pick them again until they accomplished that, and they did. I have nothing to lose in my picks, they have nothing to lose (or gain) on the season - I'm going to be bold and pick them on the road to close it out. I'm also going to buy stock on margin and back a land war in Asia. If there's a Sicilian who's willing to wager when death is on the line, I'll take the bet. Screw it.

Tennessee at Houston:
I don't know what to say - Tenn is actually favored on the road for this one. They also have something to play for when Houston doesn't. I'll play the odds and take them.

Seattle at Steelers West:
Neither team has anything to play for, both have the same records, neither is very good...Home team.

Kansas City at Denver:
Sorry KC, no matter who I pick, Denver's gonna screw me. So, I'll be safe and pick them 'cause they're at home.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta:
Not even a question - Atlanta is going to stomp TB into the ground to close this season out.

Baltimore at Bungles:
Okay, the fact is, the Ravens are favored and they know what's on the line here. But they're only favored by a point and a half, and Cincy is going to want to totally screw them. Ravens just got past the Brownies last week - I know - and the road has not been their friend this season. Also, the Ravens have been nice enough to choke for us already this season. Pretty much everything rides on this game for us and for them. Which is going to win out? Cincy's hate for the Ravens and their love for playing the upset card - or the Raven's "have to"? I really don't know. I'm picking the Bungles because I really think they can pull it off - but I'm scared that I'm doing it because I want them to.

Steelers at Browns:
See the above and cast us as the Ravens. I know - it hurt to even type that. But, as I've been saying for years, it's easy to hate the Ravens because we're such similar teams, fans and cultures in so many ways. This game is really no different. The Browns are worse than the Bungles, but they love playing the upset. Also, they almost got Baltimore last week, and we're coming into their house this week. We have to win this one to best the Ravens and the Browns know it. Wouldn't surprise me in the least that they and the Bungles are texting back and forth to plan this shit out. The difference is that I'm picking the Steelers because I know they can beat the Browns...but I'm scared that I'm doing it because I want them to.

San Diego at Oakland:
Might as well pick the Raiders one last time this season. Don't let me down, guys.

Dallas at New York Football Giants:
Pride match right here. Eli Manning is the Manning these days, and that is something. Also, Romo is...well, he's Romo and that's the best he can do. It's late season, and that's not a good time for him. Also, he's hurting bad these days. I think that the Giants are going to come up strong to end the season, and Dallas is going to come up Romo.

NOLA over Carolina
Pats over Buffalo
Chicago over Minnesota
Jets over Miami
Niners over Rams
Pack over Detroit
Philly over Washington
Indy over Jacksonville
Tennessee over Houston
Steelers West over Seattle
Denver over Kansas City
Atlanta over Tampa Bay
Bungles over Baltimore
Steelers over Browns
Oakland over San Diego
New York Football Giants over Dallas

Keller's Picks, Week 17

2011-12-28T07:41:00.000-08:00

(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)

Like a lot of NFL teams, I've essentially locked up my seeding at this point in the season. But, Weidman still has something to play for, which means I can't slack off. Now, there are justifiable reasons that I'm making all of these picks, but there are at least a couple where I might be picking based more on what I want to happen rather than what I think will actually happen.

Carolina at NOLA:
Drew Brees has the following QBERT split: Away: 74.3, Home 99.8. Saints are unstoppable at home (ask the Falcons) and Brees needs to defend his shiny new passing record this week so Tom Brady doesn't it steal it out from under him.

Buffalo at New England:
I'd like nothing more than for the Pats and hated Ravens to lose, the Steelers to win, and have the road to the Super Bowl come through Pittsburgh. I'd also like to have a nacho fountain in my dining room and Captain America's shield. Ain't gonna happen.

Chicago at Minnesota:
When in doubt, take the home team. Adrian Peterson is out and the Vikings have one of the worst pass defenses in history, but Matt Forte and Jay Cutler's Infuriating Face are also on injured reserve. I don't trust a McCown brother to put up big numbers, even against a pass defense as woeful as this one.

NY Jets at Miami:
I know. All home teams thus far. The Dolphins took the Pats to the brink last week in Foxborough and I just have this feeling that Rex Ryan's team is going to crap the bed. Nothing more than a feeling, but it's a strong feeling. Plus which, Miami's favored. Which is rare enough that you need to take it when it happens (not the Line of the Week, though).

San Francisco at St. Louis:
If Charlie Batch can beat the Rams by 27, then Jim Harbaugh's practice squad can beat the Rams by 10.

Detroit at Green Bay:
If the Lions still had something to play for, I'd take them. I think the Packers want to finish the season strong and they want to finish 8-0 at Lambeau Field in order to pay back all their shareholders. Since, ya know, those shareholders can't vote, they don't get dividends, and they can't sell their shares. They should at least get something, right?

Washington at Philadelphia:
More of a vote of no confidence in the Redskins than a vote of confidence in the Eagles.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville:
Now that Dan Orlovsky has a taste for victory, he will pursue it at all costs. I think the Colts are on the upswing and the Jags are just trying to limit injuries so they don't have to sit out the first couple of weeks of golf season.

Tennessee at Houston:
Titans have something to play for. Texans don't have anything to play for and TJ Yates is also showing some warts. This one is sneaky, though, since Houston is a three point dog at home.

Seattle at Arizona:
I wish I could quit the Cardinals. I really do.

Kansas City at Denver:
Now we're getting to the part where I start picking what I want to happen. I'm not in the habit of picking against Football Jesus and I don't recommend it. However, he looked absolutely awful against an average Buffalo pass defense last week. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense and I think they could win this game all by themselves on pick sixes and recovered fumbles.

Tampa at Atlanta:
Falcons are tough at home, they're angry that they lost last week, and the Bucs are just dreadful. I know Cam Newton is a good player, but 48 points? C'mon, man!

Baltimore at Cincinnati:
This is a pretty even split between "want to" and "think it will actually happen" so allow me to explain.

The Bengals are fighting for their playoff lives while the hated Ravens are playing for seeding.
Baltimore sucks on the road this year.
They almost lost to Cleveland at home last week.
AJ Green should be ready to go and should be motivated to prove that he deserves to go to the Pro Bowl.
I trust in the Might Ginger.

Steelers at Cleveland:
I think the Browns are almost as motivated to work on their short game as the Jags. Plus which, the Steelers actually have something to play for.

San Diego at Oakland:
Picking it this way because I want the winner of the AFC West -- whoever it may be -- to finish 8-8. That has been a weird division all year, the games have been tough to pick, and I want people to start screaming about how it's unfair that an 8-8 team gets a home game and an 11-5 team (hello, hated Ravens) has to play on the road. I don't agree that it's unfair, I just want whatever crappy team that wins the AFC West to have to deal with all the whining and nagging for a bit.

Dallas at NY Giants:I think Eli is starting to become a clutch quarterback and I know Romo is not. Also, Romo hurt his throwing hand in Week 16 and injuries like that tend to make it difficult to grip and throw the ball. Cowboys will need to air it out to beat the Giants and I don't think a lame Romo gets it done in December. Or January. Or whatever month it will be at that point.

Line of the Week:
Saints (-9) over Panthers. At this point, I'd need a spread of at least 14 points to pick against New Orleans at home. They're pretty well unstoppable in the Superdome this season.

Moneyline of the Week:
Cincinnati (+113) over Baltimore. I feel more confident about this pick than I do picking the Chargers, but I could just really, really want this to happen.

Over/Under of the Week:
Washington at Philadelphia (46.5, UNDER). That number just seems too high. I know the Dream Team has a lot of talent on offense, but the Redskins are good enough on defense to keep this game from getting out of control. Plus which, you're probably looking at a 34-7 Eagles victory (maybe even 34-10), which is still the Under.

NOLA over Carolina
New England over Buffalo
Minnesota over Chicago
Miami over NY Jets
San Francisco over St. Louis
Green Bay over Detroit
Philadelphia over Washington
Indianapolis over Jacksonville
Tennessee over Houston
Arizona over Seattle
Kansas City over Denver
Atlanta over Tampa
Cincinnati over Baltimore
Steelers over Cleveland
San Diego over Oakland
NY Giants over Dallas

Good News and Bad News: Rams at Steelers

2011-12-27T14:08:00.000-08:00

I have to admit that I didn't watch the game. I was out of town, visiting family. If the game was on TV where I was (it wasn't, but even if it was), I wouldn't have been able to watch it. I was visiting with people that wouldn't understand why it was more important to me to watch the Steelers play the hapless Rams in an essentially meaningless late season game instead of spending quality time with them and I only get to see them a couple times a year and when, for the love of God, are they going to see some grand kids?

I figured it was better that I just check my phone for updates and then look at the box scores and analysis of the game afterwards.

Here's what I have for the Good News:

They won and winning is better than losing. And a win's a win.
Ben Roethlisberger didn't need to start for the Steelers to win by 27. A big reason for this was not the stellar play of Charlie Batch -- though it doesn't look like he played horribly -- but the fact that they were able to average six yards a carry against the league's worst run defense. Hey, I'll take it where I can get it.
From what I've heard, Trai Essex did a more-than-serviceable job at center. Since Pouncey may not be back for the Cleveland game and Legursky definitely won't, that's at least comforting news.
Also comforting is the fact that the Browns have the league's 30th ranked run defense, but I guess that's something better left to the preview for this week's game.
According to Mike Tomlin, Woodley, Pouncey, and Sanders all have a "decent shot" of playing against Cleveland on Sunday. Even if they don't play, it's a good sign that they're getting closer (especially Woodley and Pouncey).
Brandon Lloyd was targeted 12 times for three receptions and 29 yards. That's an ugly stat line for Lloyd, but another outstanding performance by Ike Taylor.
I know that Kellen Clemens isn't exactly Aaron Rodgers, but the fact that he was held to 91 yards on 24 attempts -- 3.8 yards per pass attempt is pretty crazy -- is a good sign that the pass defense can be trusted. They're not going to hold Rodgers or Flacco to that kind of horrid production, but it's likely that they won't get lit up, either.

Bad News is, for the most part, not related to the game.

They committed a turnover and forced zero turnovers. Since the opener against the hated Ravens, they've committed only 13 turnovers in 14 games. Take out the four against the 49ers and that's nine in 13 games, which is excellent. The issue is that they're still minus-12 in turnover differential. Maybe they're saving all their lucky bounces for the postseason? I sure hope so.
Batch was 3-for-4 in the red zone, but he was also 1-for-7 on third down. That... that's a pretty horrific conversion rate against one of the worst defenses in the league. In theory, the conversion rate on third down will improve when Roethlisberger comes back, but I'd sure like to see it stay much closer to 50 percent while he's out.
Tomlin said that Roethlisberger had a shot to play. That means he could be out there, slinging passes and not-quite fully healed against a team that hates him. Against a team that lost their quarterback on an illegal hit the last time these two played. I'm not saying that the Browns players will intentionally try to aggravate Roethlisberger's injury, but they're definitely not going to be pulling any punches. If Ben plays on Sunday, that's bad news.
The hated Ravens also won. If the Steelers and hated Ravens win on Sunday, then we'll have a 12-4 wild card team and an eight or nine win team hosting them. It's good news that the Steelers will play either Denver or Oakland in the Wild Card round, but it's bad news that they honked away that game against Baltimore in November (which was partially my fault).
Hines Ward caught four passes, but he needs five more. That's gonna be a stretch unless the starters get pulled early (probably won't happen). The Cincinnati-Baltimore game also got flexed to 4:15, so neither team will know their fate until their game is over. That means lots and lots of quick screens to Hines until he either breaks the record or the Steelers jump out to a big lead. Honestly, I think it's important to get Hines to 1,000 receptions. I think the Steelers can safely cut him with a clear conscience if they get him there. I think he deserves it for all his hard work, determination, and quality play over the last 14 seasons. I also think the Rooneys are crazy if they keep him around in 2012.
Something about winning three road games to get to the Super Bowl makes me awfully nervous. I know it's been done in the past, but it's been not done more frequently.

We're almost to the playoffs, kids. Only the might Cleveland Browns stand in our way. Ya know what? I can't even type that ironically. Let's just get Cleveland out of the way and get to the real games.

Christmas Comes Early: Rams at Steelers Preview

2011-12-22T13:46:00.000-08:00

The St. Louis Rams are an awful team. Yes, everyone in the NFL is talented and they're way better at football than me. Even the worst NFL team could still beat Alabama or LSU. I'm not saying that their players are bad players, they're just bad players by NFL standards. That's about as diplomatically as I can state that.

They went 7-9 last year, then placed 16 guys on injured reserve this season. They lost their top three cornerbacks, two starting wide receivers, and two offensive tackles. They're now 2-12. They have issues on offense, defense, and special teams. They're 25th in scoring defense and dead last in run defense. They're dead last in scoring offense and 30th in total yards. Sam Bradford and AJ Feeley are hurt and defensive end Chris Long (Howie's kid) hasn't practiced the last two days. They're thinking about next season. Steven Jackson and Brandon Lloyd are talented players, but their quarterback is still Kellen Clemens.

I'm not saying the Steelers are an unstoppable force that will maul anyone that stands in their way, but I am saying that there's no way they should lose to this Rams team. The Steelers are at home, they have something to play for (still a shot at a first round bye, technically), and they're a much more talented team that isn't struggled with the injuries St. Louis has. If Roethlisberger's ankle wasn't sprained, this would be about the healthiest the Steelers have been all season.

They're healthy, they're mad they lost on Monday night, and they have something to play for. In addition, this could be Hines Ward's last game at Heinz Field and all the guys in the locker room know that. They'll make sure he comes out a winner.

Now, the signature win for the Rams this season was their upset victory over the Saints in Week 8, when they dominated both sides of the line of scrimmage and sacked Drew Brees a kazillion times. That was with a healthy offensive line and a healthy Chris Long. That was also on artificial turf. At this point in the season, the grass turf at Heinz Field is usually a total mess and footing is dicey, at best. I don't think their linemen will be able to dig in and come after the quarterback (hopefully Dixon) like they did in Week 8 against New Orleans. Even if that happens, they would still need to score enough points on offense to win and I don't think they're capable of that.

Taking out the Saints game, here are their point totals since Week 6: 3, 7, 13, 13, 7, 20, 0, 13, 13. Sure, take out the game against the Bengals and the last three games for the Steelers are: 13, 14, and 3 and they're probably going to be playing with their third string or back-up quarterback. I get that. I do. It's just that the Rams aren't as good on defense as the Chiefs, 49ers, or even the Browns.

They can't score points and they can't keep opponents from scoring. That's why they're 2-12. The Steelers can score points and they can keep opponents from scoring (most weeks), which is why they're 10-4.

I hope Dixon plays, but I'm fine with Batch. I deconstructed Batch last year and endorsed Dixon and I still believe almost all the stuff I said then. It's just that I don't think it makes too much of a difference in whether the Steelers win or lose. If they don't play a horrible, mistake-filled game, they will win. They'll win with Dixon under center, Batch under center, or Roethlisberger under center. Given that, it doesn't make any sense (in my mind) to risk Ben exacerbating his ankle injury.

This prediction assumes that Ben Roethlisberger does not play. But, even if he does, I don't think it will have a huge effect on the score.

Prediction:
Steelers 21, Rams 10

Weidman's Picks, Week 16

2011-12-21T18:24:00.000-08:00

(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)

As if I wasn't dug into a hole as it is, we're in a really crappy part of the season, picks-wise. Nothing is predictable. Teams that are locked up can slack off, great teams can get tired (or be broken as hell like the Steelers), bad teams can be underestimated (or play teams that don't give a shit any more) and so on. Pack lost last week, Colts won - it's "Any Given Sunday" with a vengeance.

Houston at Indy
This should be an easy pick, unless Indy surprises everyone again. I doubt it. Houston wins.

Oakland at Kansas City:
Really close game, and Oakland has screwed me way too many times this year. I'm taking the home team by a hair.

Jacksonville at Tennessee:
Tennessee is at home and is the much better team. They should win this one without much trouble.

Miami at Pats:
Always bet on Brady...especially when he's at home versus a lousy team. Another "easy" pick, the Pats should run away with this one.

Steelers West at Bungles:
I hate to keep picking home teams, and I really hate to pick a rival, but Cincy has played stronger than AZ all season, even if their records aren't much different. Unless AZ really mans up for an upset, they will lose this one.

Denver at Buffalo:
Buffalo started strong and I've been lamenting them ever since, what with their fall from grace. Denver has done everything they can to do the opposite.

Rams at Steelers:
This week hurt. A lot. Also, where they were beat up before, the Steelers are even more damaged now on a short week. They're still going to win.

New York Football Giants at Jets:
I hate to once a freakin' gain take a home team, but I have to. No, seriously - I have to. Stupid two teams being in the same stadium... The Jets almost always end strong, and I know that my buddy Flan is sending serious concern rays their way. That's going to swing the balance.

Minnesota at Washington:
Hey, this picking thing is easy!

Tampa at Carolina:
If there's ever a time to put a lien on your house and bet it on the Panthers, it's this week. Even the Pats are only slightly more favored in their game.

Cleveland at Baltimore:
Oh I wish, I wish, I wish I could take the Brownies in this game. I'll be rooting for them the whole time and will give precisely zero shits if I lose this pick. However, I have a better chance of winning this damned pick 'em pool that I never should have agreed to in the first place.

San Diego at Detroit:
When in doubt...

Philly at Dallas:
Dallas is going to win this by more than one point, no matter what the line is.

San Francisco at Seahawks:
The Niners utterly destroyed us this week. No one has put up more than 75 rushing yards on them all season, no one has rushed into the endzone, they're +45,000 in the turnover battle and the Seattle Seahawks...were a question on Jeopardy tonight (Only team to have the same first 3 letters as their city.) The one point favoring to San Fran is an insult to every good team they've beaten this year.

Chicago at Pack:
Green Bay fell last week, but that's inconsequential. It was like the flaw rumored to be in all Persian rugs just so they won't be perfect. They win.

Atlanta at NOLA:
NOLA still has something to fight for, and they're much better than Atlanta. I'm going to round this out with another home pick.

Houston over Indy
Kansas City over Oakland
Tennessee over Jacksonville
Pats over Miami
Bungles over Steelers West
Denver over Buffalo
Steelers over Rams
Jets over New York Football Giants
Washington over Minnesota
Carolina over Tampa
Baltimore over Cleveland
Detroit over San Diego
Dallas over Philly
San Francisco over Seahawks
Pack over Chicago
NOLA over Atlanta

Keller's Picks, Week 16

2011-12-21T17:09:00.000-08:00

(Click here for current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)

I'm looking to add to my lead and make it so that I could lose every game in Week 17 -- with Weidman winning every game -- and still take the season. It occurs to me that we never came up with a tiebreaking procedure.

In the event of a tie, the Championship goes to the guy that won the most individual weeks. In the event of a tie there, the Championship goes to the guy that can recite the alphabet the fastest, without singing the song.

Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 16.

Houston at Indianapolis:
The Colts may have looked frisky last week and the Texans may have looked awful, but TJ Yates just wins football games.

Oakland at Kansas City:
I think Oakland continues to implode, the Chiefs play tough at home, and Kyle Orton, strange as it may sound, still has a better QBERT rating than Carson Palmer. Also, the Raiders are a mess and the Kansas City players, for whatever reason, seem to want to rally around Romeo Crennel. Maybe they lost a bet. It surely can't be that they want him to their their coach, right? Or did everyone forget that he was the worst coach Cleveland ever had (which is saying something)?

Jacksonville at Tennessee:
The Titans gave one away last week, but they still have something to play for and they're still the home team. Also, Chris Johnson looks like he might not be dead after all and Matt Hasselbeck should be available.

Miami at New England:
Never bet against Tom Brady at home. It's good to know that you can still count on some things. Unless you can't.

Arizona at Cincinnati:
I was going to take the Bengals, but I feel as though I can't pick against those pesky Cardinals. I'm tired of picking against them and then watching them screw everything up. The Bengals are starting to wear down and the passing game isn't the same without AJ Green in the line-up. Interesting side note: John Skelton is 4-1 as a starter. If he wins his next two games, some team is going to trade a second round pick for him. It could happen. Just ask Kevin Kolb.

Denver at Buffalo:
After a brief run-in with reality last week, Football Jesus resurrects himself against the Bills. More importantly, Buffalo is a horrible team.

St. Louis at Steelers:
I don't care who plays quarterback. Mike Tomlin and the veteran leadership on this team don't let them drop this one, especially at home. St. Louis may have the worst team in the league. They're on their third quarterback and they've put 415 guys on IR; this from a team that wasn't that great to start with.

NY Giants at NY Jets:
When it doubt, take the... what's that? They play in the same stadium? The NFL schedule makers decided to make this a home game because, "Shut up, that's why"? Got it. Well, the Giants suck at home. This is about the time of year that everyone writes the Jets off and then they close the season by crushing two good teams. The Giants just happen to be the first in line.

Minnesota at Washington:
You know what? Sexy Rexy showed me something last week. The Redskins passing game is starting to find its groove. Quick stat. Whose stats are these: 110.4 rating, 69.1 completion percentage, 3,646 yards passing, 31 touchdowns, and six interceptions? Answer: Quarterbacks who have faced the Vikings this season. Their pass defense is historically awful, is what I'm saying.

Tampa at Carolina:
I hate picking the Panthers, but I can't, in good conscience, pick the Bucs. With the recent spate of coach firings, how does Raheem Morris still have a job? Does he have some compromising pictures of Malcolm Glazer or something? Maybe Glazer's focusing too much of his time on Manchester United.

Cleveland at Baltimore:
Much as I hope the hated Ravens lose, it ain't gonna happen. This is because Cleveland sucks.

San Diego at Detroit:
What do my grandparents and Philip Rivers have in common? They're both money in December. Matthew Stafford has used up all his miracles and Jesus likes Tebow more anyway.

Philadelphia at Dallas:
The Eagles finally woke up and are playing to their potential, Andy Reid is coaching for his job, and Romo + December + Garrett is an extremely beatable combination, even at home. This is my shakiest pick of the week, by the way. Call it a gut feeling.

San Francisco at Seattle:
I think the 49ers keep rolling. They're a great football team and Jim Harbaugh is so competitive that he would keep his starters in to win at Parcheesi.

Chicago at Green Bay:
Hey, I love a good upset as much as the next guy, but the Packers are too good a team to drop a game at home to a McCown brother.

Atlanta at NOLA:
Saints are 6-0 at home and they've been crushing everyone that comes to the Super Dome. I think this is a high scoring game with a lot of fantasy points in play, but NOLA ultimately prevails. Bonus Prediction: Drew Brees sets the record for passing yards in a season on Monday night.

Line of the Week:
St. Louis (+15.5) at Steelers. We don't know who the Steelers are starting at quarterback. Sure, the Rams are awful, but 16 points worse than Charlie Batch's squad? I think not. Take the points.

Moneyline of the Week:
San Diego (+120) at Detroit. Chargers are on fire, Lions aren't. Gotta go with the hot team on this one.

Over/Under of the Week:
Atlanta at New Orleans (53, OVER). I'm feeling a 35-31 barn burner on this one. Write it down. Or, ya know, bookmark this page. You heard it here first.

Houston over Indianapolis
Tennessee over Jacksonville
Kansas City over Oakland
New England over Miami
Arizona over Cincinnati
Denver over Buffalo
Steelers over St. Louis
NY Jets over NY Giants
Washington over Minnesota
Carolina over Tampa
Baltimore over Cleveland
San Diego over Detroit
Philadelphia over Dallas
San Francisco over Seattle
Green Bay over Chicago
NOLA over Atlanta

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at 49ers

2011-12-20T18:12:00.000-08:00

The hated Ravens lost and the Steelers qualified for the playoffs before they even played a snap on Monday night. There's your good news. That's the whole list.

As far as semi-good news is concerned, LaMarr Woodley didn't suffer a setback and Mewelde Moore was the only person that was seriously hurt. Ben Roethlisberger doesn't count for that list because he was already hurt.

For the bad news section, it's complicated (and probably lengthy). San Francisco came out and really kicked the Steelers butts. That's the long and the short of it. I knew they were a great team, but I had no idea they were as deep and as talented as they are. I undervalued Alex Smith. I underestimated how smart their players and coaches are. I knew they were disciplined and they worked hard, but I was not aware of the fact that an alarming number of players on that team have a very high football IQ. Having said that, they still play Marty Ball and they will still get destroyed by the Saints or Packers, provided Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are healthy.

For a semi-silver lining in the bad news, it's not like the 49ers gave other teams in the league a blueprint for how to beat the Steelers. Most folks already know how to do that, it's just incredibly difficult to do. Contain Roethlisberger, win the turnover battle, avoid costly penalties, and stop the run. But, the thing is that San Francisco completely outplayed the Steelers. "Play significantly better than the other team" is a blueprint for beating any team in the NFL, so no secrets were lost on Monday Night Football.

You could complain about the blackouts or the officiating -- honestly, I think there were some questionable calls that went in the 49ers favor -- but I don't play that game and I'm not into analyzing "what ifs" as I prefer to take a look at what happened instead of what could've maybe happened had things gone much differently than how they actually did. Maybe, if he had two good ankles, Roethlisberger hangs in for another half second for Mike Wallace to clear and he throws a touchdown instead of an interception. Maybe he's able to step up in the pocket, force the linebacker to move up, and deliver a more catchable ball to Heath Miller on the second interception. Maybe he does something to escape pressure and doesn't fumble the ball. Maybe he's focused on the clock instead of the intense, throbbing pain in his left ankle at the end of the first half and that drive ends in a field goal. If all the calls go in the Steelers favor and Ben's healthy, maybe the final score is more like 38-17 for the good guys.

But, as I see it, the 49ers probably would've won even if Roethlisberger is healthy. Given that this team is headed to the postseason, it's more than a little disconcerting that they can't seem to beat playoff teams. This season, the Steelers are 1-4 against playoff teams (beat the Patriots, lost to Houston, lost to San Francisco, and lost to the freakin' hated Ravens two freakin' times). That's no good. That would be categorized as bad news. In three of those losses -- the opener at Baltimore, at Houston, and at San Francisco -- they played like total crap on the road. So, just because they won the Super Bowl as a #6 seed before doesn't necessarily mean they'll do it again.

This team is going to the playoffs. OK? They're going to the playoffs. How they do when they get there remains to be seen. All is not lost because they blew an opportunity for pole position on the #1 seed. First of all, there's the small matter of the fact that they'd still need to beat St. Louis and Cleveland. Second of all, they had the #1 seed in 2001 and 2004 and they didn't make it to the Super Bowl. The last two Super Bowl runs, they were the #2 seed. Not getting the #1 seed doesn't destroy the season. Erratic play and Ben Roethlisberger's ankle, on the other hand, could very well destroy the season.

Really, the key issue is Roethlisberger's ankle. Erratic play is difficult to predict or control, because it's erratic. This team will go as far as Roethlisberger takes them. The Steelers aren't a Peyton Manning situation, but I can say this: This is a nine win team without #7 and I can't see them making a deep playoff run if he isn't healthy.

That means that, if you're Mike Tomlin, you have to make a decision: Either sit Roethlisberger and hope he gets better or play him and hope he can "walk it off" over the course of the next couple weeks. My preference would be for the former, but I think Tomlin will go for the latter. He's let Roethlisberger go out there the last two games when it was clear the man could barely walk. I'm not sure if that irrationality is linked to respect for Roethlisberger, a belief that Ben at 15% is better than Batch or Dixon, or the fact that Tomlin tends to side with his players on most things. Maybe it's all three.

If I was Mike Tomlin... how cool would it be to be Mike Tomlin? Do you think he wakes up every morning, goes to the mirror, and says, "Who's the head coach of one of the most popular, stable, and successful franchises in the NFL? Who's the youngest coach to win a Super Bowl? YOU ARE! Yes you are!" Or does he look in the mirror and say, "It's a process. We're going to continue to... uh... evaluate how awesome I am. It's week to week." Am I the only one that thinks about stuff like this? Yes? OK, let's move on.

My decision would be to start Dennis Dixon for the last two games of the season. I may as well ask for a pony while I'm at it, so let's just say start Charlie Batch for the first game, he gets hurt, then Dixon plays a game and three quarters. At home against the Rams and at Cleveland are extremely winnable games. I think they win those games without Roethlisberger. Maybe Baltimore honks away another road game (they're 3-4 on the road) and Ben gets another week to rest. High ankle sprains are weird. Kendrell Bell missed most of a season with one, Adrian Peterson missed two games, but then again he could be an alien. Maybe resting the injury will just make him rusty and won't help it heal enough so that he's whole again. Maybe playing through it is a better call. I don't believe that playing through it is a better call, but I've been wrong before.

Let's assume that Roethlisberger plays through the injury. This makes me very nervous. I think the Steelers can win the next two games with a 15% healthy Roethlisberger, an 85% healthy Batch (is he ever really healthy?), or Dennis Dixon. What worries me is that fact that the 49ers defenders were extraordinarily gentile with Ben on Monday night. They didn't take a shot at him, even if it was within the rules. They sacked him gently. When it became evident that the Steelers needed to pass on every down, San Francisco -- smartly and in a sportsmanlike manner -- didn't big blitz and try to tee off on Roethlisberger.

I would hope that the Rams and Browns would pay him the same courtesy, but I doubt it. I especially doubt it for the Cleveland game. It's in Cleveland, the Browns defenders are probably still mad about the Colt McCoy fiasco, and they still consider the game to be a rivalry. Both teams have nothing to lose. It's possible that the 49er defenders took it easy on Ben because they didn't want to draw a costly roughing the passer penalty. It looked like they were just being nice, but that's possible. The Rams and Browns have nothing to lose. There's a distinct possibility that they take a shot at Roethlisberger when they have a chance, or even if they don't have a chance within the rules.

I've had ankle problems and I've walked them off. I understand that it's different for me than it is for a professional athlete that needs to do all kinds of athletic things day to day. My big problem is that I think that, in one of these next two games (most likely at Cleveland), someone is going to take a serious shot at Roethlisberger that will end his season. Anything that ends his season ends the Steelers season.

And, selfishly, I would like to be able to enjoy the last two games of the season without wincing every time Roethlisberger drops back to pass or throws a pass or gets hit after he throws.

At this point, the Steelers are in the playoffs regardless. I guess we'll see what they have in store for us and Ben Roethlisberger. It's a process. We take it week-to-week.

Marty Ball is Back: Steelers at 49ers Preview

2011-12-15T15:53:00.000-08:00

When the schedule was released in April, I had this game marked down as a W. I thought the Monday Night scheduling committee was a bunch of idiots and that they'd be sorry they picked such a runaway blowout as their featured game of the week. I almost put the W in pen, but instead I decided to just pencil in the win. That was a good call.

Early on in the season, I wasn't sold on San Francisco. They started out 1-1 and needed a come back win to beat the Bengals (who I also thought sucked). Then they came back -- on the road, playing a 1 p.m. game on the east coast -- against the Eagles and beat the Lions in the same set of circumstances. I should note that this was back when both teams were relevant. Along the way to a 9-1 start, they crushed Tampa, soundly beat Seattle, and beat the Giants harder than the score might indicate. They only lost to the Cowboys in overtime and always seemed to make the critical play late in games. Even though they won nine of their first ten, people were discounting their impressive record because they play in the NFC West, which is the NFL's weakest division.

The thing is that the 49ers played only two division games in their first ten. Yes, they lost at Baltimore and yes, they choked at Arizona, but they're still a very good team with a legitimate 10-3 record. You may ask who have they played to get to 10-3, but you may not like the answer if you're a Steeler fan. They've beaten: Cleveland, Arizona, Seattle, Cincinnati, Tampa, Detroit, Washington, Philly, and the Giants. They lost to Dallas, Arizona, and the hated Ravens. The Steelers, at 10-3, beat a fair number of those teams and they also had the benefit of playing Jacksonville, Indy, and Tennessee, whereas the 49ers had to play the AFC North, which currently has three wining teams (plus Cleveland).

Both teams are 10-3, both teams have two non-conference wins, both teams couldn't beat the hated Ravens. Both teams are looking to run the ball, stop the run, protect the football, and hit some big plays in the passing game.

There are three distinct factors that are working in San Francisco's favor, though:

The 49ers are remarkably good at playing "Marty Ball" (protect the football, run the ball, play well on defense and special teams, be conservative) and they're way better at it than the Steelers are.
Ben Roethlisberger may not play and will be limited even if he does play.
The game is in San Francisco.

This 49ers team reminds me a lot of the Marty Schottenheimer teams of the 80s and 90s and the Cowher teams of the 90s and early 00s. They run the ball well, they stop the run, they control the clock, they play solid defense, they don't turn the ball over, and they make enough plays in the passing game to win a lot more often than they lose. Basically, they're trying to make you play their game by their rules, then make a play in the fourth quarter. They have some star power on defense, but the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. Just like with all those Cowher teams, the defense is weaker without Patrick Willis, but it is not weak. It's just like when Kirkland, Greene, Lloyd, Gildon, Woodson, Lake, Perry, Porter, and Chad Brown left. The defense was weaker at times and in spots, but it was far from weak. This season, the Steelers have been without Aaron Smith, Kiesel, Farrior, Troy, Harrison, and Woodley for long stretches, but someone else has stepped up and filled the void in the system.

San Francisco has some talent at receiver, but no one that strikes fear in defenses. If there's an issue, it's with Vernon Davis, since neither Polamalu nor Ryan Clark can cover Davis man-to-man and the defense has had problems with versatile tight ends this season (the first game against the hated Ravens and, early on last week, they made the tight end for the Browns look like a Pro Bowler). I have confidence that Ike Taylor can handle Michael Crabtree, so the real issue is Davis, at least in the passing game.

Frank Gore is the modern day equivalent of Barry Foster or Bam Morris, but he's way more talented than either of those guys. He has their toughness and strength and adds superior vision and speed. They'll look to get him involved early and often and stopping him is what the Steeler defense should focus on. The problem there is that the 49ers use a number of different personnel groupings and formations to keep run defenses off balance and to hide the direction of the play, so it will take a solid effort from everyone.

The key differentiator, what will turn the game in the Steelers favor, is Ben Roethlisberger. All those great Cowher teams had one fatal flaw: They were usually at a disadvantage when it came to the quarterback position. If Roethlisberger suits up, he's a significantly better player than Alex Smith. Think of the big games those Cowher teams lost to and think about the quarterbacks they faced. They beat a young Bledsoe, Kelly Holcomb, Elvis Grbac, Chad Pennington, Vinny Testaverde... um Jim Harbaugh, as it turns out. They lost to guys like Jim Kelly, John Elway, Steve McNair, an experienced Drew Bledsoe, and Tom Brady. The obvious exception would be Stan Humphries. I'm only going through 2004, since Cowher changed his strategy and got away from Marty Ball during the 2005 run. He also had more talent at the skill position on offense and he had Roethlisberger, who had a hell of a postseason until he got to the Super Bowl.

When the Cowher teams said, "We're going to possess the ball, play smashmouth football, and play keepaway from your fancy quarterback," the fancy quarterback usually replied, "But... I still get the ball, right? I'll get it at some point, won't I? If so, while you guys are staging six minute drives that end in punts and eight minute drives that end in field goals, I'll just go out and score touchdowns." That's how things will play out on Monday night if Roethlisberger suits up.

If he plays, the 49ers will need to get away from Marty Ball in order to win. That doesn't seem practical to me, since they've basically got their playoff seeding set and they won't want to show too many new wrinkles on film for the postseason. But, Jim Harbaugh is an extremely competitive guy. Maybe he has it in him.

If Roethlisberger doesn't play, then the Steelers are sunk. They're just not good enough without him to play this game by Marty's/Cowher's/Harbaugh's rules and win. And the 49ers are far, far too good at playing that game to lose.

So, this prediction is assuming that Roethlisberger plays, which I think he will.

Prediction:

Steelers 21, San Francisco 17

Weidman's Picks, Week 15

2011-12-14T19:16:00.000-08:00

(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)

Jimminy Christmas...my best week yet, and I still lose to Keller. Someone up there hates me. Stupid International Space Station using satellites to change games...

Jacksonville at Atlanta:
Yeah, this one's easy. Their records are almost exactly opposite, Atlanta's at home (good for any team) and 4-2 when they're there (great for them in particular.) Jacksonville has 4 wins on the season, and only one of them is on the road...against Indy. Take Atlanta by a lot.

Cowboys at Tampa:
Cowboys haven't been great on the road this season, but that doesn't stop them from being an okay team. Tampa....isn't - at home or otherwise. Take the Cowboys.

Carolina at Houston:
Once again, we have two teams with almost reverse records with the better team at home. It might seem like a cop-out, but really, at this point in the season it's a good barometer.

Washington at New York Football Giants:
I have had no faith in the Skins since their QB issues earlier this season, and their record backs that up. The Giants have been disappointing, but are still good enough to beat Washington at home.

Miami at Buffalo:
Blah. Who cares? Buffalo laid a big ol' turd this season as far as I'm concerned and Miami is still Miami. But, given the options, I guess I'll take the home team.

Seattle at Chicago:
Seattle has shown a surprising amount of heart this season, and Chicago has shown great capacity to dissapoint. It's going to be close, but take Chi-town.

NOLA at Minnesota:
Don't even need to look at the line for this one. *checks* Really? That close? I know NOLA's on the road and it's cold up there, but six points? Seriously? That's it? Pfft.

Bungles at Rams:
Bungles bungled their playoff chances last week, but they get a freebie against the Rams this week. I will not pick the Rams in any match-up until they win two in a row again. 2017's gonna be exciting when they win against the Colts.

Tennessee at Indy:
Another one where I don't need check the l- Seriously? The same line as Nola over the Vikings?
Okay, Vegas...

Pack at Kansas City:
Yes, the Pack's on the road, but as I said, I'm not picking against them until they lose - and even then, it's subject to review.

Detroit at Oakland:
This one is really close. Really, really close. Detroit has the better record and a one-point advantage...but they've been self-destructing of late. Then again, so has Oakland, but they're at home.

Pats at Denver:
I'm gonna be "safe" and not bet against Brady. Change it up a bit.

Jets at Philly:
Philly is favored and they're playing their hated Jets at home. Don't care. Dream Team has not managed to come up big much this season, and the Jets are a solid team who managed to beat the Pats at home.

Cleveland at Steelers West:
It feels nice to be able to favor Steelers West again. Not only does it make me happy that they're probably going to win, but they worsen the record of a division "rival" while they're at it.

Baltimore at San Diego:
Normally, under two point swing, I take the home team. However, the Ravens can't afford to lose any ground to us, and I don't think they're going to start this week.

Steelers at Niners
This is my most painful pick of the week. Steelers are on the road, Ben's iffy, Pouncy's iffy, Harrison's suspended. Depending on where you look, the line is even-to-slightly-favoring-the-Niners. Rule is to take the home team in this situation. If Ben plays, they might win, but he'd also be a liability. If he doesn't play, there's rumors of activating Dixon...or we're stuck with Batch. That's the clincher...so it's tough. The other thing to consider is that the Steelers are roughly 2-1 historically on Monday nights. The final addition is that, like the Ravens, they are in a must-win race. Ben plays, Steelers maybe win. He doesn't, they definitely lose. Since the assumption right now is that Ben is going to play because he has to, take the Steelers. If you can hold your pick until the weekend and things are a bit more clear, do so.

Atlanta over Jacksonville
Cowboys over Tampa
Houston over Carolina
New York Football Giants over Washington
Buffalo over Miami
Chicago over Seattle
NOLA over Minnesota
Bungles over Rams
Tennessee over Indy
Pack over Kansas City
Oakland over Detroit
Pats over Denver:
Jets over Philly
Steelers West over Cleveland
Baltimore over San Diego:
Steelers over Niners

Keller's Picks, Week 15

2011-12-14T19:04:00.000-08:00

(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)

Jacksonville at Atlanta:
Atlanta is tough at home, they're still playing for something, their run defense is good enough to contain MJD, the Jags changed everything but the receptionist that answers the phone this week, and they don't have anything to play for. Um... maybe The Major Appliance puts it all together this week? I think not.

Dallas at Tampa:
I know it's Romo in December, but Tampa is awful. I don't care that they're at home. They're a mess.

Carolina at Houston:
Everyone loves TJ Yates now that he's 2-0 and has proved to be clutch, but I'm unconvinced. But, still gotta take the Texans at home given the fact that they're facing a horrid run defense and they have Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Also, I think the Houston D tries to honor Wade Philips by murdering Cam Newton.

Washington at NY Giants:
Giants stay on a roll, Redskins continue to try to convince Dan Snyder to make yet another coaching change.

Miami at Buffalo:
I picked the Dolphins last week and they let me down. Then they fired James Gandolfini. And they're on the road. Even given all that, the Bills have about 615 key guys on IR (damn you Fred Jackson!) and I think the fact that some guys for Miami are still playing for their jobs turns the tide in their favor.

Seattle at Chicago:
Wow. This... this game is gonna be hard to watch. I really have no idea who will win. My only hope is that this game is somehow blacked out. When in doubt, take the home team.

NOLA at Minnesota:
The Saints have not played great on the road, but Minnesota plays in a dome. Drew Brees loves him some sweet, sweet dome action. Plus which, the Vikings are awful.

Cincinnati at St. Louis:
You know who's more awful than the Vikings? The Rams. They're on their third string quarterback, their eighth string cornerback, and Steven Jackson is probably hoping that The Rapture comes so that this will all end and he can die dreadlocked, respected, and rich.

Tennessee at Indianapolis:
Three road teams in a row. Wow. Well, so, Indy's gotta win a game eventually, right? Right? Eh. Not on Sunday.

Green Bay at Kansas City:
That Aaron Rodgers, he's pretty good. He's got a QBERT rating that's approaching the coveted 100 mark. The Chiefs might start Ricky Stanzi, who kinda looks like Spicoli from Fast Times at Ridgemont High, but not as dynamic. The Packers are gonna win this game and Todd Haley got fired, so I'm gonna leave you with this.

Detroit at Oakland:
Need to pick a home team, I'm still off the Lions bandwagon, and the Raiders are finally getting healthy.

New England at Denver:
Never bet against Football Jesus. Wait. I got that wrong. Here's the thing: No one has come up with a way to stop the rolling Holy Hand Grenade that is Football Jesus, but he hasn't faced Bill Belichick yet and Belichick is the closest thing NFL coaching ranks have to an anti-Christ. You take the devil you know over the Football Jesus you can't quantify on the QBERT scale. Also, never bet against Tom Brady.

NY Jets at Philadelphia:
The Eagles can't stop the run, the Jets always turn it on in December, and I think Rex Ryan wants to make a statement. Philly is still favored in this game and I'm not sure why. Because they're at home? Because they beat Miami last week? I'm really not sure.

Cleveland at Arizona:
So, the Browns are on the road and they couldn't manage to beat the Steelers last week when they were facing a one-legged quarterback. Add to the mix that their quarterback may not be sure what day it is and you've got an easy pick: Steelers West.

Baltimore at San Diego:
Maybe I'm just being optimistic. But, the Chargers players really seem to want to rally to save Norv Turner's job (for reasons that I don't understand) and they usually play out of their minds in December. They're big and physical on offense and defense and they match up well against the hated Ravens. If this game were in Baltimore, I'd have to take them. I just think that the desperation for San Diego, the December mojo, and the home crowd carry the Chargers.

Steelers at San Francisco:
This is assuming Ben Roethlisberger plays. If Dennis Dixon or Charlie Batch starts, then the 49ers take this one. I think San Francisco will be fired up for this game and most of the players on this squad are not accustomed to playing on Monday night. I think that the Steelers with Roethlisberger can overcome that. The Steelers without Roethlisberger do not.

Line of the Week:
Arizona (-6.5) over Cleveland. They're at home, Cleveland sucks, and the Cardinals are kind of hitting their stride right now. If a concussed Colt McCoy strolls onto the field, Arizona wins by at least a touchdown.

Moneyline of the Week:
Jets (+130) over Eagles. I honestly don't know how Philly is favored in this game. By three points. Did Rex Ryan have some kind of leaked foot fetish video where he's sucked on Mark Sanchez's toes and that would cause a distraction? I'm stumped.

Over/Under of the Week:
Carolina at Houston (45, UNDER). I think the Texans take the air out of the ball and keep this one tight. They've been involved in low scoring games since Yates took over. Plus which, it's going to be hard for the Panthers to score a bunch of points if Cam Newton ends up murdered.

Atlanta over Jacksonville
Dallas over Tampa
Houston over Carolina
NY Giants over Washington
Miami over Buffalo
Chicago over Seattle
NOLA over Minnesota
Cincinnati over St. Louis
Tennessee over Indianapolis
Green Bay over Kansas City
Oakland over Detroit
New England over Denver
NY Jets over Philadelphia
Arizona over Cleveland
San Diego over Baltimore
Steelers over San Francisco

Good News and Bad News: Browns at Steelers

2011-12-12T19:32:00.000-08:00

I gave myself a "cooling off" period on Friday before posting anything. Then the weekend happened and I ran out of time, so here we are.

It's a good thing that it took me a while to get around to this, because I successfully cooled off and we heard some news about the injuries to Pouncey and Roethlisberger. That's the big good news. Both guys say that they're in pain, but they'll fight through it. Roethlisberger is wearing a boot, but is expected to start. Pouncey says he'll be out there, but he said that about the Super Bowl. I'll believe it when I see it, but I really hope that he doesn't push himself to go out there too early. The Steelers will need him in January.

It was an ugly, stressful, frustrating game for me. However, the good news behind all that is that the Steelers won and neither Roethlisberger nor Pouncey was placed on injured reserve. A win is a win, Antonio Brown is awesome, and the defense can be trusted to put the game away provided that they're playing the Browns or Bengals. I guess we'll see what happens should the game against the 49ers come down to the wire.

Other than that, this game raised some issues that, I think, were bigger than the game itself:

I'll say that Ben Roethlisberger is a warrior and that he turned in a gutty performance on Thursday night. His determination was the difference in that game. Having said that, Roethliberger is an idiot for going out on the field in the condition he was in and Mike Tomlin is, at best, wildly irresponsible for allowing Roethlisberger to go back in. I know the Steelers have better doctors than me, but I find it hard to believe that they can wheel Roethlisberger to the locker room, get an x-ray, analyze the x-ray, make a decision based on that x-ray, tape up the ankle, and get him back out there in 20 minutes. My guess is that he came in, got the x-ray, starting getting it taped up, heard that it wasn't broken, and declared that he was playing in the second half. At that point, Tomlin should have told him no and close the issue, but he didn't. That could be chalked up to an error in judgement and trusting his player, but I think there's a larger issue.
The larger issue is that Charlie Batch should not be on the roster. In the last four minutes of the first half, you could tell that the Steelers were just trying to get off the field, not turn the ball over, and wait for halftime so they could re-group. That's fine. The fact that a hobbled Roethlisberger took the field in the second half says that the Steelers would trust pretty much anyone behind center over Batch. If you take away Roethlisberger's mobility, his ability to step into throws (and throw deep), and his ability to move around in the pocket, then you have to strip down the offense. At that point, you essentially have Charlie Batch: Roethlisberger without the arm, mobility, and ability to extend the play. If you have the option of an injured Roethlisberger being about as effective as a healthy Batch, why put risk further injury to Roethlisberger? Sure, you could argue that only Roethlisberger could have made that fourth quarter touchdown throw to Brown, but you could also argue that Ben just threw the ball 15 yards and Brown took it the other 64. If you don't trust Batch, what about Dennis Dixon? The league changed the rules this year so that the third quarterback doesn't need to be inactive on game days. Dixon was inactive on Thursday, but I don't think we'll see that again on Monday night, just in case Roethlisberger suffers a setback.
I wouldn't be mad if James Harrison got suspended for his hit on Colt McCoy. I understand the arguments for being in the heat of the moment and everything happening between the whistles, but he has a history for helmet-to-helmet hits. He's been fined. The only way to teach him to approach certain situations differently is to force him to miss a game or two. From what I've been able to ascertain -- again, never met the guy, just going off of what I've read and heard -- he's a better teammate than he is a person. This is a guy that broke this eye socket, took a play off, then went back in the game because he didn't want to let his team down. I've defended Harrison in the past, but I can't defend him here. Once he realizes that his reckless style of play hurts his team, he'll tone it down. If he doesn't tone it down, he's going to hurt someone, namely himself.
Pat Schurmur has some explaining to do. I can actually understand pushing Roethlisberger out there for the second half on some level. If he desperately wanted to take the field, he can walk with a cane when he's 60. If he had a concussion... you only get one brain. Troy and Hines had concussion-like symptoms earlier this season and they were immediately taken out of the game and not allowed back in. They had tests after the game, but they weren't allowed back in. Once they cleared those post-game tests, they were re-assessed during the week leading up to the next game. McCoy says he doesn't remember the fourth quarter of Thursday's game, which might help to explain his performance. At this point, Schurmur lost the game, may lose McCoy for the season, and probably has a letter on his desk from the league office. Add that to a 4-9 record and that's not exactly what Schurmur had hoped for when the season began.

Ultimately, they won and so did the hated Ravens and that's all that matters. They kept pace and they need to continue to do that. We'll see what happens with the balance of the season.

TGIT: Browns at Steelers Preview

2011-12-08T11:57:00.000-08:00

If you're reading this to see if I think the Steelers will win, I think the Steelers will win. As a matter of fact, you could also read this and this, since both Weidman and I both picked them this week.

As far as my confidence level is concerned, I have to say I'm extremely confident that the Steelers will win. I know this only servers to jinx them, but, as I see it, three pairs of severe events need to occur for the Browns to win this game:

Cleveland scores a defensive touchdown AND a special teams touchdown.
Cleveland's defense shuts the Steeler offense AND they force several turnovers, causing them to start a number of drives in Steeler territory.
Pat Schurmur would need to show a willingness to throw the ball deep AND Colt McCoy would need to show some ability to complete deep passes.

I think that any one event in any one pair could happen, but not both. If only one event in one pair happens, the Steelers win. I also think the pairs are mutually exclusive, meaning that 1 and 2 can't happen together (or 1 and 3 or 2 and 3), since that would mean the Browns played a perfect game and I don't see that happening.

Cleveland isn't only facing history and a tougher opponent, there are also fundamental mismatches in terms of the strengths and weaknesses of the two teams and how they approach the game.

The Browns have a solid pass defense, but their run defense is awful, allowing an average of 151 yards per game. They just gave up 290 rushing yards to Baltimore. Pittsburgh's game plan on offense is this:

Establish the run and... oh, wait. The running game isn't working. I guess we should try to pass the ball a little more, especially on first down. If that doesn't work, then go to the shotgun and/or no huddle. If we build a lead, we establish the run and grind out the clock.

Thus far this season, the pass-run differential is 60-40, which means that establishing the run hasn't worked out so well and they needed to start throwing a lot. If they're able to run the ball effectively -- which they should be able to do against a crappy run defense like Cleveland's -- then that sets up their whole offense, opens up play action, and makes the attack balanced. When they've been able to establish the run early, they've been very successful. The Browns offense has been horrendous all year, so they won't be able to outscore a balanced Steeler offense.

Unless Arians decides to change up the game plan -- it's rare, but it has happened -- things are set up so that all the Steelers need to do is play their game and they'll win.

Cleveland is averaging only 14.5 points per game and the most points they've scored in any game is 20. The only reason they've won four games -- and the reason they haven't been blown out much -- is because their defense is keeping them in games. They beat Seattle 6-3, they beat Jacksonville 14-10, they beat Miami 17-16, they hung in there against the Rams and 49ers, and the Bengals needed a comeback victory two weeks ago.

At some point, though, the defense is going to give up. Yes, they're all professionals and they all have a job to do. They're also people and people get tired of bailing out their coworkers time and time again only to watch Bob from operations try to fix the fax machine by scooping ice cream into it. Maybe they keep fighting this week because the Steelers are still a big rival for them. Maybe they finally start mailing it in in the second half. Maybe it happens next week or in Week 16, but it's going to happen. We can only hope it starts tonight.

On defense, the Steelers want to stop the run, pressure the quarterback, and keep everything in front of them. I think they'll be able to do the first two, but playing too much zone against the Browns will give them space to operate underneath. They only throw the ball underneath, so you can't give them space to operate there. Dick LeBeau has show a willingness to play more man coverage this season, starting with the game against the Patriots in Week 8 (side note: I never want to write "Patriots game" because it reminds me of the movie). If he keeps everyone in tight, McCoy doesn't have the arm strength or the weapons to beat them deep and Peyton Hillis and Chris Ooomagooma don't have the long speed to break a big run.

Now, I'm not saying that all the Steelers have to do is show up and they'll win. Showing up is only the first step, with the other step being that they need to play like they play when they play. If they stick to what has worked for them and avoid any of those catastrophic pairs, then they've got this one.

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Browns 13

Weidman's Picks, Week 14

2011-12-07T18:41:00.000-08:00

(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)

At this point, I really need Keller to lose Internet access for the remainder of the season for me to win by sweet, sweet default. However, I'm not a quitter, and I'm playing for pride at this point, just like...

Cleveland at Steelers:
Okay, here's the deal. The Brownies are number 4 with a bullet in our division, they're practically 0-for-the-century against the Steelers at home, they're not entirely sure what 1st and 10 means....buuuuuuuuuut, they've made it their team identity to eff up other teams' seasons. We can't lose any more divisional games because of the hated Ravens, and that includes this one. I don't think there's a chance in hell the Steelers lose, but I reserve the right of "I told ya so."

Kansas City at Jets:
KC isn't a scary team, but they're not a bad team. However, the Jets are a scary, and they're at home.

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville:
This is a "pick the home team" situation. There's nothing salvageable about either team.

New England at Washington:
Finally, a road team pick. Unsurprisingly, it's 'cause it's New England matching up with Washington. Washington is on a lose-way-more-than-they-win streak, and NE is NE. Not much hope for the home team in this fight.

Atlanta at Carolina:
The line is real close on this one, with a slight edge to the Falcons. Normally in a situation like this, I'd be leaning towards the home team despite that. However, that home team is the Panthers, and I think that line is very generous towards them

Indianapolis at Baltimore:
We really, really need the Hated Ravens to lose one in the worst way. That being said, I will have no problems with this pick being wrong. Even so, the Ravens are in - if not a can't lose - a shouldn't lose situation, even without holding the tiebreaker over us. The Colts can make a statement with a win, but at this point, the only team they could win against is one in garbage time on the season.

Philly at Miami:
It takes a lot for me to take Miami, but the Eagles are there to provide that "lot" for me.

Minnesota at Detroit:
Easy pick is easy. Even with a key suspension that I'm not going to spell again this week, Detroit is more than prepared to stop the Vikings.

NOLA at Tennessee:
Saints are only two games to the better in the standings and are on the road, but I think they'll still pull this off without much trouble.

Houston at Cincinnati:
Cincy is still in the hunt, despite losing to us. They need to win this one. They're at home, which works in their favor, but the Texans are good. It's not going to be easy, but they will pull this out because they have to.

Chicago at Denver:
Records are totally matched up, and they're both pretty good teams this season. Denver has surprised me a number times this year, but Chicago has also infuriated me multiple times. I have no choice but to pick the home team.

San Francisco at Steelers West:
As stated before, Steelers West has nothing to play for, not even pride. The Niners are scary, scary good. Good enough that home field advantage has no meaning.

Buffalo at San Diego:
*sigh* I will admit that Buffalo did not perform as well as I thought they would this season. I shouldn't be too surprised, I guess. San Diego is better than their record and at home.

Oakland at Pack:
Sorry, Oakland. Nothin' but love for ya...but Aaron Rogers and his cold-weather warriors don't give a crap. Green Bay is so secure in their awesomeness that they're offering more "stock" to suckers- er...fans out there. Even though they could drop the rest of the season and be fine, I suspect that they want to get out a Sharpie and make use of a premade book cover.

New York Football Giants at Dallas:
Home field advantage takes this one. Giants are good, but I don't think they have a road win in them in Texas.

Rams at Seahawks:
The Rams are terrible at home, they're terrible on the road, they're terrible while grocery shopping...The Seahawks are merely "not great," except at home where they're "good." Take them.

Steelers over Cleveland
Jets over Kansas City
Jacksonville over Tampa Bay
New England at Washington:
Atlanta over Carolina
Baltimore over Indianapolis
Miami over Philly
Detroit over Minnesota
NOLA over Tennessee
Cincinnati over Houston
Denver over Chicago
San Francisco at Steelers West
San Diego over Buffalo
Pack over Oakland
Dallas over New York Football Giants
Seahawks over Rams

Keller's Pick, Week 14

2011-12-07T13:15:00.000-08:00

(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)

I finished last week at 12-4 overall, 3-1 in swing games, and I was 3-for-3 in line of the week, moneyline of the week, and over/under of the week. I'm on one week hot streak, which means I have to stay humble. I gotta take it one week at a time. I'm just here to help the ball club and, the Good Lord willing, things will work out.

Cleveland at Steelers:
The Browns love to play spoiler this time of year, so I'm slightly nervous heading into this one, but only slightly. Do I think it's possible that Cleveland pulls the upset? Sure, anything is possible through Jesus. However, Jesus is a little busy rooting for Tebow right now, which means the Steelers roll.

Kansas City at NY Jets:
Rex Ryan's club may be a mess right now and Mark "Dirty" Sanchez may have a QBERT rating that's hovering between 35 and 36.42 right now, but you can't take the Chiefs. You can't take a team that lost its star running back, starting quarterback, and star safety, then began the Tyler Palko Era only to have that go down in flames, only to sign Kyle Freaking Orton and hope he could spark the offense, then have Orton injury his throwing hand two snaps in. This team is cursed. As they say in the tow truck business, a wreck is something you leave behind you.

Tampa at Jacksonville:
When in doubt, take the home team. I know the Jags got blown out on Monday night, but Tampa was really, really bad before Josh Freeman got hurt. Now they've probably moved to the realm of being pitiable.

New England at Washington:
Holy crap. Look at the closing schedule for the Patriots. I think McNeese State is on there.

Atlanta at Carolina:
The Falcons lost to the immortal TJ Yates and his 18.67 QBERT rating last week and the Panthers made me pity the Bucs, but I'm still off the Carolina bandwagon. I also don't want to pick all home teams and I just have a feeling the Falcons pull this one out. They're the veteran team and this is the kind of game they're supposed to win. Let's see if they have the stones to do it.

Indianapolis at Baltimore:
I'm not picking this because the Colts are awash in a void of sucktasticocity, or because the hated Ravens have a really good team, or because they're at home, or because they don't have an epic joke job like this left in them for the rest of the season. I like crab cakes. There. I said it.

Philly at Miami:
I talked myself out of picking the Seahawks over the Eagles last week even though I had a bunch of compelling reasons for taking them. Here are my compelling reasons to take the Dolphins:

They're playing considerably better of late, especially at home. Last week, they crushed a very good Raiders team.
I think Miami head coach James Gandolfini wants to keep his job very badly and the players want him to stick around. As a result, they'll keep playing strong down the stretch, finish 8-8 or 7-9, and everyone will be talking about them in the offseason as a "sleeper" team because they came on strong late in the year and won seven of their last nine. At that point, everyone will forget that they lost seven of their first seven. My point is this: The Eagles are trending down and the Dolphins are trending up.
Michael Vick always has a bad game his first start back after an injury. You can tell he's playing at 75% in an attempt to not get re-injured.

Minnesota at Detroit:
Vikings can't stop the pass, all the Lions can do is throw the ball. I think Detroit has enough of a pass rush even without Suh to get to Christian Ponder without blitzing.

NOLA at Tennessee:
The Saints have been unpredictable on the road and the Titans are a sneaky team. I just keep thinking this turns into a shootout and Tennessee doesn't have the firepower to keep up. But... if you trust the Titans enough and think that NOLA honks another winnable game on the road, the moneyline (Tennessee +171) looks might tempting.

Houston at Cincinnati:
TJ Yates did just enough to win against the Falcons at home last week, but I don't think "just enough" will be "enough enough" on the road against a solid Bengals team. Cincinnati has a tough run defense, which will slow down Arian Foster and Ben Tate enough to force Yates to win this game. Even if the Texans jump out to a lead, I trust the Mighty Ginger to come back and keep Cincy's playoff hopes alive.

Chicago at Denver:
Football Jesus versus the Stormin' Mormon! As it turns out, Caleb Hanie went to Colorado State, not BYU, he's from Dallas, and he was born on September 11th, 1985 (thanks, Wikipedia!). I have no idea whether he's a Mormon or not. I just assume everyone named Caleb is a Mormon. Even women.

At any rate, the Broncos are on a roll and at home and the Bears' offense is falling apart. It won't be easy -- what worth fighting for ever is? -- but Denver gets the win.

San Francisco at Arizona:
They get another efficient division win. San Francisco is a boring team that just wins. They will fall victim to the Shottenheimer Effect when they get to the playoffs, but I think they'll get the #2 seed.

Buffalo at San Diego:
I'm still off the Bills bandwagon and the Chargers -- especially Philip Rivers -- usually play their best in December. And they're at home. And Fred Jackson will be unavailable because he was placed on IR. Adam Schefter Tweeted that, when Jackson woke up from surgery, he immediately opened his laptop and cackled at my fantasy football line-up.

Oakland at Green Bay:
Keep taking the Packers until they lose. Mike McCarthy said today that he doesn't plan to rest Aaron Rodgers. That's bad news for any team that wants to keep Green Bay from going undefeated.

NY Giants at Dallas:
I'm not picking for the Giants as much as I'm picking against Romo in December. The guy is 7-10, but it really seems like he's 1-16. In a division game against a New York team that must be feeling like they let one get away against the Pack, I think the Boys find a way to blow this one.

St. Louis at Seattle:
I have been Romo-in-December-esque this season when it comes to handicapping the Seahawks, so this pick is probably wrong. All I know is that Seattle plays tough at home, they looked good against Philly last week, and the Rams are an awful, awful team.

Line of the Week:
San Francisco (-3.5) over Arizona. I don't see this game being close. As long as the 49ers remember not to kick the ball to Patrick Peterson, they'll win this one by at least a touchdown. They clinched their division, but they still need to keep winning to secure a bye in the postseason.

Moneyline of the Week:
Giants (+167) over Cowboys. I only picked one underdog this week. That worries me. But, the lines for the favorites were so intense that you'd almost lose money by winning it if you bet the favorite.

Over/Under of the Week:
Chiefs at Jets (36.5, UNDER). Kansas City has comfortably made the under in six of their last seven games. I think that trend continues this week, regardless of whether the Chiefs lost by two touchdowns or not. They won't score enough on offense to move past the over.

Steelers over Cleveland
NY Jets over Kansas City
Jacksonville over Tampa
New England over Washington
Atlanta over Carolina
Baltimore over Indianapolis
Miami over Philadelphia
Detroit over Minnesota
NOLA over Tennessee
Cincinnati over Houston
Denver over Chicago
San Francisco over Arizona
San Diego over Buffalo
Green Bay over Oakland
NY Giants over Dallas
Seattle over St. Louis

Good News and Bad News: Bengals at Steelers

2011-12-05T12:38:00.000-08:00

The best news is that they won and kept pace with the hated Ravens in terms of record (Baltimore holds the tiebreaker since they swept the regular season series). It's better that they won 35-7 instead of 13-9 or 17-13, but a win is still a win.

Good news first:

AJ Green did have six catches for 87 yards and a touchdown, but 43 of those yards came on one play. He was also targeted 11 times and Ike Taylor picked off one of those targets, so I'm going to declare this one a victory for number 24. He's continuing a strong season and the Steelers will need him to keep it up if they want to make some noise in January.
Special teams contributed a forced fumble, a blocked kick, and a punt return for a touchdown. The kicking game had been under-performing for the past few seasons and it's nice to see the Steelers play well in all three phases. When the playoffs start and the games get tighter, having an advantage on special teams gives you a huge edge. It was also good to see Cameron Heyward contributing in a meaningful way, even if he's not starting. Curtis Brown had a big day with three special teams tackles and he was all over the place in coverage units. Kampinos averaged 54.5 yards per punt, showed good hang time, and dropped two punts inside the 20.
The Mighty Ginger was held to 5.6 yards per pass attempt and completed 45.8 percent of his passes. Bruce Gradkowski threw the interception to Taylor, but, for a guy that has been as hot on the road as Dalton, I will take 135 yards passing and 77.6 passer rating.
On four trips in the red zone, the Steelers got four touchdowns. That's huge. Also huge is that Rashard Mendenhall looked comfortable close to the goal line and Tomlin looked comfortable getting him the ball.
Antonio Brown is awesome. He led the team with 67 receiving yards and kicked in another 65 and a touchdown on three punt returns. Now that Emmanuel Sanders is healthy, expect him to return kickoffs and Brown to return punts. That is a winning combination.
Hines Ward went over 12,000 yards for his career. I'd like to congratulate him on a hell of a run.
LaMarr Woodley leaving in the second quarter was all part of the plan. With a Thursday night game coming up and Jason Worilds allegedly rushing the passer well, they didn't feel a need to rush him back and exacerbate his hamstring injury. Troy played and played well without incident.
James Harrison stepped up when the Bengals lost their left tackle. He had three sacks and three hits on the quarterback. The Steelers had an aggressive game plan this week after laying off Dalton in the first game. It sure worked. If they come after Colt McCoy like that on Thursday night, things could get ugly for the Browns.
I still can't believe how well Max Starks is playing. I guess being forced to take some time off and losing some weight made a big difference. I just hope he stays healthy the rest of the season. Jonathan Scott is definitely not an acceptable substitute. I thought the line played well in general. I would've liked to have seen fewer sacks and a more efficient running game, but this was really an A-level game for this unit when you factor in the talent Cincinnati has on the front seven.

Not a ton of Bad News, but there is still some out there...

New England, Baltimore, and Houston all won, which means the Steelers, at 9-3, would be the #5 seed if the season ended today. Hated Ravens and Texans hold a tiebreaker, so the only way to improve seeding is to keep winning and hope someone else loses, preferably both Baltimore and Houston, since the Steelers have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Patriots.
Todd Suisham missed a field goal. Jeff Reed is still available.
The Steelers scored 35 points, but were still 2-for-10 on third down. That's not sustainable.
Ben Roethlisberger averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, didn't turn the ball over, and had a 117.3 quarterback rating, but it really seemed to me that this was his second straight ugly game. He was off on deep throws, his timing on short and intermediate routes wasn't quite right, and his receivers gained a lot of yards for him after the catch. I'm not sure if it's the thumb or the coverages he's been facing, but he just seems... off. I know. Anyone whose quarterback is Tyler Palko or Caleb Hanie or TJ Yates really hates me right about now. I'll shut up.
I am happy for Hines Ward. I really am. What bugs me is that they're feeding him the ball when they don't have to. He needs ten catches to get to 1,000 for his career. Just let it happen. Let it look like he earned it. Maybe look for him on third down more often and you'll convert more of those opportunities. He'll get to 1,000 without trying to fudge it. If you want to throw a quick screen to a receiver, Sanders, Brown, and Mike Wallace are all considerably better options.
Speaking of weird passes, I'm glad that Roethlisberger came out of the game and Charlie Batch went in. I'm glad that Batch saw the Bengals jump offsides, knew he had a free play, and just chucked it down the field. I'm not glad that Brown was in the game and got nailed on the play because Batch can only chuck the ball so far. If you're going to leave players open to injury on those kinds of plays, make sure it's Batch throwing to Cotchery or Battle.

This wasn't a case of Cincinnati finally reverting back to the Bungles we're used to seeing. The Bengals are a good, young team and they have a bright future. They're just not good enough to beat the Steelers or hated Ravens yet. I'm thinking they will be and sooner rather than later. But, it didn't happen on Sunday, though it hopefully will happen on the last game of the season, when the Bengals host the hated Ravens.

The Steelers made an important announcement to the rest of the AFC yesterday: We're back and the Bengals aren't ready. We'll see how everything shakes out, but, as of right now, the Steelers are the five seed that no one wants to play.

Stop the Mighty Ginger: Bengals at Steelers Preview

2011-12-02T13:25:00.000-08:00

For those of you that don't read the ol' blog regularly, the Mighty Ginger is Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton. I call him that because he's already playing pretty damn well and he looks like this.

Dalton's stats haven't been overly impressive thus far this year -- he has 16 touchdown passes, 12 interceptions, and an 81.1 quarterback rating -- but he's proven to be more than capable of leading this young team to victory. Cincinnati is 7-4 and they're 4-2 the road. Had AJ Green not gotten hurt in the last game between these two teams, the Bengals could be 8-3 and the Steelers could be 8-3. However, I'm not a big fan of "what if" scenarios, because that's basically saying, "if the things that caused me to lose had not happen, I would have won." That means Cincy is 7-4 and the Steelers are 8-3 and neither team can afford to lose ground to Baltimore, which holds a tiebreaker over both teams.

Everything that I wrote in the last preview is still true. These are two fairly evenly matched teams. The Bengals are no longer the Bungles. AJ Green is a hell of a player and Ike Taylor will have his hands full on Sunday. They have an accomplished couple of cornerbacks and a solid front seven. Their safeties are still suspect, but taking advantage of that would require Mike Wallace to hold onto the ball. But, really, I'm not saying he can't do that. He had a bad game against Kansas City and I think that he will make up for that on Sunday.

The thing is that not too much has changed since the last game. Polamalu may be limited and may not play, but LaMarr Woodley will be back, Farrior will be back, and James Harrison is healthy. As a matter of fact, this is the healthiest this team has been all season. They'll also have Emmanuel Sanders back, which helps the return game.

Really, this is a game that they won about three weeks ago and should win again. The big thing they need to keep in mind is Dalton. He's no longer just some rookie quarterback. I'm not promoting him to the upper tier of quarterbacks in the NFL, but he's better and more dangerous in the fourth quarter than the likes of Curtis Painter, Blaine Gabbert, or even Cam Newton and Christian Ponder. Dalton has five fourth quarter comebacks this season and was one William Gay interception away from having six.

Perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind here is that Dalton is better than Tyler Palko. The Steelers are healthy, they're more talented than the Bengals, and they're playing at home. They could very well jump out to another early 14-0 lead on Cincinnati. If that happens, they need to keep their foot on the gas and put as much distance between themselves and the Bengals on the scoreboard as possible. Dalton's not John Freakin' Elway or even Frank Reich, but he's plenty good enough to overcome a deficit on the road against a team that's trying to sit on a lead (like they did against the Chiefs and Jaguars).

If they take care of the ball, force a couple of turnovers, stay aggressive, and keep the Mighty Ginger in check, they shouldn't have any problems winning this game. That's a lot of "ifs" but I still think they get it done.

Prediction:
Steelers 23, Bengals 17

Weidman's Picks, Week 13

2011-11-30T19:53:00.000-08:00

(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)

I had a really good week last week, but I unfortunately dropped a swing game to Keller. Not looking good for me down the stretch, but I'm gonna soldier on. I have a feeling Keller's gonna drop all his games this week and make me Supreme Awesome Guy.

Philly at Seattle
Yet another birdie fight for the season, and once again, it's two kinda crappy teams. The Dream Team is favored, but I don't care - Philly chokes in important matchups, they're traveling across the country and Seattle is at home.

Jets at Skins
Skins are just kinda limping along now, and the Jets are still playing for something. Despite being on the road, they've got this one.

Chiefs at Bears
Despite winning, we really let the Chiefs off the hook last week. Now way that game should have been that close. Word is, Palko is still getting the start even though they have Orton now. Given that, being on the road and the fact that the Bears are a much better team, KC loses this one decisively.

Titans at Bills
Too close to call. I like the Bills in this game, but it's still not that simple. When in doubt, take the home team.

Oakland at Miami
Okay, Miami is actually favored in this one, and I think that mainly has to do with them being at home and having a good record against Oakland. The important thing to remember is that they're still Miami. They're terrible, and Oakland is a strong force in their division riding a winning streak.

Bungles at Steelers
Okay, the Steelers are heavily favored in this one, and I think that mainly has to do with them being at home and having a good record against Oakland. The important thing to remember is that they're still the Steelers. They play down to the level of their opponents, and the Bungles are very good this season...but they're still the Steelers and this is a must-win game for them in front of a home crowd. Win, yes. Ass-stomping, no.

Falcons at Texans
I'm gonna flip a coin here. *flip* Crap. It landed on its edge. Well, I took the home team above, so I'll take the road team here.

Broncos at Vikings
No coin flip here, but it's still going to be close. The Vikings are at home, but this week's theme is remembering who teams are - and they're still the Vikings.

Panthers at Bucs.
The Panthers won last week. Yippie for them. Against the Colts. No yippie for me and my pick. This week, the Bucs will win one for my honor.

Colts at Pats.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA *deep breath, sip of water* BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Ahem

Pats.

Ravens at Browns
There's one irrelevant team in our division, and that's the Browns. They do like to play to ruin other teams' seasons, but it won't happen this week. Baltimore smells blood in the water and they're not going to drop a division game if they can help it.

Pack at New York Football Giants
Pack keeps a'rollin, all season long.

Cowboys at Steelers West
Cards' season is over. You know it, I know it, they know it. Instead of playing for pride, I think they're playing for next season now.

Rams at Niners
You don't even need to look at the line to know that this is the second most obvious game of the week.

Detroit at Saints
With Ndamukong Suh* doing his best James Harrison impression, Detroit is on the road without a key player, and NOLA is undefeated at home. Lions have been good on the road, but missing that key piece of their defense and the Saints being unstoppable at home...yeah, it's the Saints in this one.
*Why, yes, I copy-and-pasted his name. Thank you for asking.

Chargers at Jags
Hmm...boring MNF game. The Jags are the lesser team, and they just lost their coach. Chargers are coming in and spanking them.

Seattle over Philly
Jets over Skins
Bears over Chiefs
Bills over Titans
Oakland over Miami
Steelers over Bungles
Falcons over Texans
Broncos over Vikings
Bucs over Panthers
Pats over Colts
Ravens over Browns
Pack over New York Football Giants
Cowboys over Steelers West
Niners over Rams
Saints over Detroit
Chargers over Jags

Keller's Pick, Week 13

2011-11-30T19:48:00.000-08:00

(Click here to see current Pick Em standings, week-by-week and YTD.)

Had a solid week last week and went 1-0 in swing games, expanding my lead over the increasingly sage Weidman.

This week's games frighten and confuse me, so I'm sure to go 16-0.

Philadelphia over Seattle:
I know the Eagles got crushed by the Pats last week and they're on the road on the west coast without Mike Vick and Jeremy Maclin on four days rest in a tough place to play. Wait. Those are all pretty compelling reasons to take the Hawks. But, Seattle can't exploit Philly's weaknesses on defense and the Eagles will be able to score points. Plus, they've got Vince Young. All Young does is win football games. That's all he do. He was Tebow before Tebow was Tebow.

Carolina at Tampa:
The Bucs can't stop the run, but the Panthers can't run the ball unless it's Cam Newton running it. Still off the Carolina bandwagon and Tampa's at home. That's a sneaky line, though, with the Bucs favored by 3.5. I think they win by a field goal, but not four or more.

Cincinnati at Steelers:
Hey, look at that! It's another weird line (Steelers by 6.5). I don't think they win by a touchdown, but Steeler Nation is probably moving the money in their direction. Steelers already beat the Bengals and I don't think the Might Ginger wins this game on the road. He's done exceptionally well on the road, but I just don't see it.

Atlanta at Houston:
When I was thinking about this write-up, I thought the game was in Atlanta. I thought, "The Falcons are tough at home. If that game was in Houston, I'd take the Texans." That's as good a reason as any to welcome in the TJ Yates Era.

NY Jets at Washington:
More of a vote of no confidence in the Redskins than a vote of confidence for the Jets. This is about the time of year when they wake up and realize that you don't automatically make the playoffs just because you think you're awesome... then they turn it on. That starts here. Hopefully for Santonio Holmes, especially, because I have a must-win fantasy game this week.

Indianapolis at New England:
Interesting note: Dan Orlovsky and Ernie Sims were both on the Detroit team that went 0-16 and they're both on the Colts this year. Another interesting note: Indy is horrible and the Pats aren't, so Tom Brady and company roll.

Oakland at Miami:
The Dolphins are on a roll of sorts, the Raiders are headed in the other direction, Darren McFadden probably still won't be available, and they have no healthy receivers. Plus which, I'm picking like 38 road teams this week, so I need to even things out.

Denver at Minnesota:
FOOTBALL JESUS PARTS THE TWIN CITIES.

Tennessee at Buffalo:
Buffalo lost their ninth starter to injured reserve this week and can't stop the run. Chris Johnson and Javon Ringer are good players. Somehow, the Bills are favored. Something to keep in mind.

Kansas City at Chicago:
The Bears bandwagon is looking awfully desolate at this point, so I'm thinking about jumping off. However, the only thing more awful than Chicago's bandwagon is the Chiefs offense. Unless Kyle Orton and Thomas Jones go all Chad Brown on their former team -- which I don't think happens -- the Bears are going to win this one pretty easy.

Baltimore at Cleveland:
Hated Ravens are well-rested after a dominant Thanksgiving night performance against the 49ers. They know they need to win to stay in the hunt. Aside from playing spoiler, the Browns don't have much going for them.

Dallas at Arizona:
If the Cowboys remember to not kick to Patrick Peterson, they'll be just fine. Steelers West still has an atrocious secondary and Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten are pretty good.

Green Bay at NY Giants:
Interesting note: Green Bay is a rolling juggernaut and, even if I picked against them, you shouldn't. Keep picking them until they lose. Or until the wrap up the first seed and Mike McCarthy decides to rest the starters. Whichever comes first.

St. Louis at San Francisco:
John Harbaugh's brother is going to have his guys ready to go and fired up. Also, the Rams may secretly be trying to be a worse team than the Colts, if that's possible. Unfortunately for them, it isn't.

Detroit at NOLA:
Did anyone watch the game on Monday night? I sure didn't, but I did notice that the Saints averaged 8.3 yards per play. Every time they snapped the ball, 8.3 yards. I am super glad I dropped Detroit's defense.

San Diego at Jacksonville:
Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver announced that he fired coach Jack Del Rio and plans to sell the team. I'm... thinking they'll be a little distracted. Also, Blaine "That's a Major Appliance, That's Not a Name" Gabbert.

Line of the Week:
Baltimore (-6.5 over Cleveland). Hated Ravens win by at least a touchdown. I don't care that this game is in Cleveland. It could be in Paul Brown's private suite in heaven and Baltimore would still win by a touchdown.

Moneyline of the Week:
Texans (+127) are underdogs at home, but I can't pin my Moneyline of the Week on a rookie quarterback named after a William Shatner character. I'm gonna go Tennessee (+115) over Buffalo.

Over/Under of the Week:
Kansas City at Chicago (37.5). New quarterback + backup quarterback + Chicago in December = UNDER.

Philly over Seattle
Tampa over Carolina
Steelers over Cincinnati
Houston over Atlanta
NY Jets over Washington
New England over Indianapolis
Miami over Oakland
Denver over Minnesota
Tennessee over Buffalo
Chicago over Kansas City
Baltimore over Cleveland
Dallas over Arizona
Green Bay over NY Giants
San Francisco over St. Louis
NOLA over Detroit
San Diego over Jacksonville

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Chiefs

2011-11-29T07:56:00.000-08:00

I was talking to a co-worker about the game this morning. He's from Argentina and follows soccer a lot more closely than he follows the NFL, but I thought he summed last night's game up nicely. He said, "The Steelers sucked last night. Fortunately, the Chiefs sucked even more." That's about all the information you really need, but you can read on if you want to check out the good news and the bad news.

Good News first...

They won. And, gosh darnit, a win is a win. They'll need to keep winning games in which they suck, because the hated Ravens don't look like they're going to go away any time soon. Baltimore plays Cleveland twice, Indy, at San Diego, and at Cincinnati the rest of the season. The Steelers also draw Cleveland twice, Cincy once, and they get to play the Rams, but they also have to travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers on a Monday night. If the season ended today, the hated Ravens would win the division and the Steelers would be the #5 seed. The only way to improve that seeding is to win out and hope Baltimore drops another game.
They forced four turnovers. I don't care that Tyler Palko played a horrible game and basically gift wrapped three of the turnovers. The defense still took advantage of the opportunities that were presented to them and they haven't been the most opportunistic bunch thus far this year. One of those turnovers closed out the game, which has also been an issue since about Super Bowl XLIII.
Max Starks did a great job against Tamba Hali. I'm not sure what got into him. Maybe it was being unemployed and out of shape that lit a fire under him. I've been unemployed and out of shape before and I don't recall improving this much in a two month period, but whatever. I'm happy that he's in at left tackle and playing well.
Ike Taylor continues to impress. He had another great game with four tackles, an interception, and two passes defended. Yes, one of those "passes defended" was an interception that went through his hands and bounced off his facemask, but we all knew going into this game that Taylor can't catch. What was particularly impressive to me was that he accomplished everything he accomplished in man coverage and he was generally assigned to Kansas City's hottest receiver all game. He lined up across from Steve Breaston and Dwayne Bowe at different points in the game, depending on who Dick LeBeau thought was going to get targeted. In general, Palko was smart enough to avoid Taylor, which means his hottest receiver was unavailable to him for most of the evening. That's a pretty nice weapon for LeBeau to have in his arsenal.
Suisham converted both his field goal attempts. Jeff Reed is still available.

Now for the Bad News:

The box score says that the Chiefs had one sack and four quarterback hits. If you saw that and didn't watch the game, then checked Steelers N At and saw that Starks played well against Hali, then you'd think that the offensive line had a good game and Ben Roethlisberger wasn't pressured all that much. Fortunately, we both watched the game and we've gotten to the Bad News section of the post, so we can dispel that misguided assumption. The offensive line sucked. Without Pouncey to make the line calls and fortify the middle of the line, they got shredded up the middle and Roethlisberger was dodging defenders all night. Really, the only pass rushing weapon the Chiefs have is Hali. Stop him and you're supposed to stop their pass rush. Given the fact that Hali was stopped and the pass rush still harassed Roethlisberger all night, we had all better hope that Pouncey doesn't miss a significant amount of time. The interior of the offensive line got abused by a bunch of marginal players. That's very, very bad news considering that they don't play a lot of teams with marginal players on the defensive interior the next few weeks and they certainly won't face any in the playoffs.
I really have no idea what was going on with the offensive game plan. This is not to take anything away from the Kansas City defense, because they played extremely well, hung in there, and didn't have any lapses in coverage like they did against the Patriots. I know Mike Wallace didn't play well -- he had two drops, looked like he quit on a few other routes, and was not a very enthusiastic blocker -- but you still need to get him the ball. If the defenders are giving him a 10 or 11 yard cushion, throw some slants or some quick screens. If they crowd him at the line, throw deep. This is a strategy that also works for Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown. All three of those guys are fast and explosive and are dangerous in the open field. Hines Ward is no longer that guy, if he ever was. Why throw a bunch of those quick screens to him when you have Brown, Wallace, and Sanders? Why keep trying to throw deep to Wallace when two members of the secondary are essentially lined up at the goal line? Bruce Arians has never been great at making in game adjustments, but the two adjustments he made -- the screens to Ward and putting Wallace in motion to get him away from Brandon Flowers -- were bad ideas and also didn't work. It could be that Roethlisberger was supposed to audible to a screen or a slant or a 10 yard out when he saw the cornerbacks playing off and never did. But, if he missed that the first time, it's up to Arians or quarterbacks coach Ken Anderson to remind him.
They turned the ball over twice, with one of those turnovers coming in the red zone.
They were 1-for-3 in the red zone, including the aforementioned turnover.
I'm concerned about the illness that got Pouncey pulled from the game. Is it just the flu? Is it something worse? Does he have Lupus? It's just weird that team doctors said, "illness" instead of just saying that he had the flu. I guess we'll check the injury report on Wednesday and see if this mysterious ailment still has him sidelined. I'm just suspicious because the Steelers are keeping everyone in the dark, which only adds to the conjecture. Whatever the illness is, I'd prefer that they just tell us and get it over with.
I'm more concerned about Troy's injury. If it was a concussion or "concussion-like symptoms" (whatever that means) that kept him out of the game, then maybe he should shut it down for a few games. He's got a history with brain injuries going all the way back to Southern Cal and you only get one brain. Ever since Crosby took an extended leave because of his concussion injuries, I've been thinking that football players should be treated even more gingerly. Sure, they wear better helmets and more padding than hockey players, but the guys they're hitting and getting hit by are bigger and stronger. Again, I'm not a doctor, but I'm thinking the Steelers should err on the side of caution and not rush him back, even if he keeps insisting on it. I'd rather see him out of the line-up than become a vegetable or lose his mind like Mike Webster did.
According to the stats, Jason Worilds had the team's only sack and four quarterback hits. To me, he looked really uncomfortable and awkward when he had to rush the passer. I can't wait for LaMarr Woodley to come back.

The bottom line is that they needed to win to keep pace and they won and kept pace. They can't play this sloppily against the Bengals and hope to win. They can't play this sloppily again this season if they expect to win -- not even against the Browns or the Rams.

Let's just hope they keep sucking a little bit less than the competition.

Homecoming for Palko: Steelers at Chiefs Preview

2011-11-24T08:33:00.000-08:00

Well, so, the game is in Kansas City, which means it's not really a homecoming. But, Palko is from here and that counts for something, right?

I have a feeling that Tyler Palko will not like facing the team he grew up rooting for. If the Chiefs approach Sunday night's game with the same strategy on offense and defense that kept them competitive in the first half against the Patriots on Monday, the Steelers are going to destroy them. Kansas City "went big" on defense, using their heaviest defensive linemen and they kept everyone in tight, playing mostly man to man. They didn't blitz as much as the announcers let on, but they definitely brought pressure. If they do that against the Steelers, Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown will get behind the coverage and Ben Roethlisberger will torch them.

Basically, Marcus Gilbert needs to keep Tamba Hali from killing Roethlisberger and everything will be fine. Kansas City's defense blows assignments, they don't tackle well, and they're not particularly fast. Hali is their only weapon. Double team him and you're good to go. You can run on them, you can throw on them, you can run through them, and you can run by them.

Palko hung in there for a little while against New England, but he's ultimately not talented enough to win a big game against a good team. He's a capable back-up, but the fact that the Chiefs signed Kyle Orton this week tells me that they don't see him as being the quarterback of the future. I don't think ol' neckbeard will have enough practice time in to start on Sunday night, but he should be able to help them for the final five games of the season.

With the depth they have at running back: Jackie Battle, Dexter McCluster, and Thomas Jones, it's not unusual to see them split carries, but Jones usually gets the bulk of them. None of these guys is going to bust the game wide open like Jamaal Charles. Steve Breaston's from here, too, but he's also not a game breaker. The only real weapon they have left on offense is Dwayne Bowe. Put Ike Taylor on him with Ryan Clark helping out over the top and try to shut him out. If the Steelers can do that, they'll stifle the Chiefs on offense.

On Monday night, the Chiefs varied formations, mixed in some wild cat, and had everyone shifting or in motion before the snap. This led to some pre-snap penalties, but it also led to some confusion for the Patriots on defense. They'll throw all the wrinkles and wacky formations they can think of at you, but it's ultimately just a gimmick and requires consistent execution to be sustainable.

Honestly, after watching them play on Monday night, I feel like an idiot for picking the Chiefs to win any games this year in Pick Em. They're a bad, bad team. Barring a special teams touchdown AND a defensive touchdown, I don't see them winning this game, or even keeping it close. The Steelers are too talented, too motivated, and too well rested to lose this game unless something goes catastrophically wrong.

Prediction:
Steelers 31, Chiefs 10

Weidman's Picks, Week 12

2011-11-23T17:12:00.000-08:00

(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)

Better late than never. Sorry, I just drove 7 hours and I'm updating from my tablet in the middle of nowhere and my closest neighbors are horses and a 19th century graveyard...admitted, better than some of my neighbors back home.

Yay! Gained a little ground back last week and had a really good set of picks. Lets see if I can keep it alive and make some good Turkey Day (week) predictions!

Green Bay at Detroit
Not news: Detroit is going to lose on Thanksgiving
News: It's actually going to be a worthwhile game to watch.

Dolphins at Cowboys
Cowboys are at home, they have a turkey with 5000 drumsticks on the sidelines, Miami sucks...the list goes on. Well, no it doesn't. That's really all that matters. Mmmmm...drumsticks.

San Fran at Baltimore
You know what? I'm going to engage in a little wishful thinking here and say that the Niners are going to pick up a road win against the hated Ravens. Why? They've lost to some crappy teams and barely held off some good teams. Granted, the Niners haven't had the toughest schedule, but they're still playing strong.

Buffalo at Jets
They have tied records, and this could be a tough call...could be, but it's not. Jets.

Bears at Raiders
I know I've been all about the Raiders, but this week, I think it's going to go the Bears way.

Browns at Bungles
Important divisional game. I'd really like the Brownies to win it to chip away at the Bungles' record...but, no. The Bungles are really good, water is no longer wet and the sky is no longer blue. We actually have to worry about them down the stretch.

Vikings at Falcons
Until the Vikings get an overhaul on everything down to their jockstraps and choice of mustard at the concession stand, I can't pick them for anything.

Texans at Jags
See above, apply it to the Jags, but with a little less vehemence.

Arizona at Rams
The battle of who can suck less. Rams win by a hair, but only because they're at home.

Bucs at Titans
Again, tough call, so take the home team.

Panthers at Colts
You heard it hear first - this is the week that the Colts cease to be winless. I've been saying they won't get beaten down all season, and I think that this is the game that they finally do it. They're playing a lousy team, they're at home, they're going to be underestimated just because they're ten games in the hole.

Skins at Hawks
Skins are still quite sad and the Hawks can come through big. Take them at home.

Pats at Eagles
Well, the Eagles hate the Pats that's good for morale. They'll be up for this game and have a boisterous home crowd. Unfortunately for them, the Pats don't care. Pats win.

Denver at Chargers
Tough call. The Broncs are arguably better than the Chargers, but they're on the road. On the other hand, the Chargers generally seem to hate me and the Broncs love to prove me wrong...so, I'm calling the Broncos for once, and we'll see how it plays out.

Pittsburgh at Chiefs
Tyler Palko is starting.

Giants at Saints
Both teams are good. Both teams have lost more than they should have. Saints are better and at home. Neither team is my pick for the Super Bowl, but it's still going to be an entertaining match-up this week.

Green Bay over Detroit
Cowboys over Dolphins
San Fran over Baltimore
Jets over Buffalo
Bears over Raiders
Bungles over Browns
Falcons over Vikings
Texans over Jags
Rams over Arizona
Titans over Bucs
Colts over Panthers
Hawks over Skins
Pats over Eagles
Denver over Chargers
Pittsburgh over Chiefs
Saints over Giants

Keller's Picks, Week 12

2011-11-23T07:01:00.000-08:00

(Click here to view NFL Pick Em standings, week-by-week and YTD.)

I lost a game on my lead to Weidman last week, so I need to get it right this week. There's a full slate of games every week from here on out. This is where the season will be won or lost.

Green Bay at Detroit:
I'm picking the Packers until they lose and I jumped off the Lions bandwagon last week. I think Rodgers and Green Bay keep rolling.

Miami at Dallas:
The Dolphins are on a roll of late and Matt Moore's QBERT rating has spiked considerably in the past three weeks, but they're still not good enough to beat the Cowboys at Dallas.

San Francisco at Baltimore:
This is a tough one. Short week for both teams and the 49ers have to travel to the east coast. But, it's a night game and I have a feeling that San Francisco can out-ugly just about anyone, including the hated Ravens. I just hope I can watch this game, listen to all the Harbaugh Bowl talk, and not punch someone in the face. That would make the remainder of my Thanksgiving visit a little uncomfortable.

Buffalo at NY Jets:
I hate to take the Jets, because they're awful. But, they did manage to beat the Bills in Buffalo earlier this season and Ryan Fitzpatrick's QBERT rating has been declining at a geometric rate since Week 6. Sanchize isn't much better, but he's good enough and he's at home.

Cleveland at Cincinnati:
The Browns are a terrible team, the Bengals are better than anyone thought they could be coming into the season, and they're beyond pissed off after dropping back-to-back games to the Steelers and hated Ravens. I think they roll. That line can't get high enough.

Houston at Jacksonville:
I know that Matt Leinart is a pretty crappy quarterback that hasn't had a decent QBERT rating since his last year at Southern Cal. The trouble is that the Jags couldn't beat Cleveland last week and their run defense leaves a lot to be desired. I think Leinart pulls a Griese, attempts eight passes, and Ben Tate and Arian Foster get 100 yards each.

Carolina at Indianapolis:
This is a shaky pick, but I jumped off the Panthers bandwagon last week, it worked, and I need to stick with that. Plus which, Indy is coming off a bye and they're at home. They can't finish 0-16, can they? Don't answer that.

Tampa at Tennessee:
I'm not saying the Titans are the 2011 Packers. This is more a vote of no-confidence in Tampa. Matt Hasselbeck should start and Tennessee is good enough to actually remember to tackle LeGarrett Blount, which is where the Packers went wrong yesterday.

Minnesota at Atlanta:
Adrian Peterson may not play and the Falcons have a tough run defense. Also, the Vikings suck.

Arizona at St. Louis:
Two craptastic teams and a lot of questions usually means take the home team. I can't do that because the Rams are craptastic squared and may not win another game the rest of the season.

Chicago at Oakland:
Sure, this might look like a dumb pick, but consider:

The Raiders have only won two games at home.
I'm still on the Bears bandwagon.
My buddy Keith says that Caleb Hanie is a combination of Football Jesus and Joseph Smith, which is good enough for me. I think the offense might actually improve with him at the helm. Then again, I hate Jay Cutler with the burning passion of a thousand dying sons, so my judgement may be clouded.

Washington at Seattle:

Seahawks play well at home and the Redskins are a total mess. On the field, off the field, in Victorian England, it doesn't matter. They'd lose to a 19th century soccer team, is what I'm saying.

New England at Philadelphia:

Just when you think the Patriots are dead, they rise from the ashes. Just when you think the Dream Team is turning things around, they crap the bed. Don't bet against Tom Brady and don't bet for Michael Vick/Less Emotionally Stable Michael Vick.

Denver at San Diego:

I have been converted to the First Church of Football Jesus. The Chargers are overrated and Tebow just wins. They'll find a way to lose this game and he'll find a way to win. That's what he does, he wins football games. And Tebows. And solves the national debt crisis.

Steelers at Kansas City:

More details to follow for the full-on game preview, but anyone who watched the Chiefs on Monday night should not question this pick.

NY Giants at NOLA:

There's a really good chance that a desperate Giants team could pull the upset on the road, but the Saints are at home and they're coming off a bye. I am not in the business of betting against Sean Payton when he's had two weeks to prepare for an opponent and two weeks to get his entire backfield healthy (start Mark Ingram).

Line of the Week:

Bengals (-9) over Browns. Like I said, that line can't get big enough. I think Cincy wins by at least two touchdowns.

Moneyline of the Week:

Denver (+243) over San Diego. Yeah, Football Jesus! (I'm totally breaking up with you if you lose this game).

Over/Under of the Week:

Washington at Seattle (37.5, UNDER). Two bad offenses, two underrated defenses. When in doubt, always take the under in a Seahawks game.

Green Bay over Detroit

Dallas over Miami

San Francisco over Baltimore

NY Jets over Buffalo

Cincinnati over Cleveland

Houston over Jacksonville

Indianapolis over Carolina

Tennessee over Tampa

Atlanta over Minnesota

Arizona over St. Louis

Chicago over Oakland

Seattle over Washington

New England over Philadelphia

Denver over San Diego

Steelers over Kansas City

NOLA over NY Giants

Weidman's Picks, Week 11

2011-11-16T21:23:00.000-08:00

(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)

This is getting to be a habit with the ugly weeks. Last week, Keller and I both bet heavily on upsets - and the upsets came even stronger. Also, I slipped farther behind in the standings. Thank you for still reading.

Jets at Broncos
I'll start this out with a road team pick. The Broncos are doing better than I'd expect, but the Jets are stomping the important games. Only concern is them pulling a Ravens after beating a hated rival twice this season.

Raiders at Vikings
Another road pick. The Vikings are just awful.

Bills at Miami
Three for three. Nothing more to report here.

Jags at Browns
Even matchup between two lousy teams. When in doubt, take the home team, in this case the Browns. But, if there's going to be an upset this week, this game has a very strong possibility.

Bungles at Ravens
Wow...this is a toughie. It's the absolute opposite of the above in every way. If you'd told me at the beginning of the season that there would be an important game between the Ravens and the Bungles this late in the season, I'd have told you that you were full of crap. And yet...here we are. The Bungles held their own against us last week, but we ran all over them early on. If they give the Ravens that opportunity at home, there's no chance. Baltimore had a big hangover last week and lost ground to us in the standings. This is a division game, and I don't see them doing it again.

Panthers at Lions
I hate to just keep picking the favorites, but again, here we are. The Lions choked majorly last week against the Bears, but they'll bring it back at home this week.

Bucs at Pack
I keep thinking that the Pack has to lose at some point, but every week I look at who they're playing and say, "not this week." Especially not at home.

Dallas at Skins
The Skins may be at home, but they've dropped three in a row, just when the Cowboys are really getting their act together. I see this one being a stomping.

Cards at Niners
Ditto the above, but in the home team's favor and by a lot more.

Seattle at St. Louis
This one is gonna be too close to call for a lot of people. Seattle had a huge win last week, and I hope to see them show the Ravens how you follow that up.

Titans at Falcons
Their records are tied, but the Falcons are the better team and at home.

Chargers at Bears
Bears are favored and at home...but I don't think so. The Chargers are geared for an upset, and I don't think the Bears are going to handle the win last week.

Eagles at Giants
Rivalry games can go any which way, no matter what the record...but the Dream Team never arrived, and the Giants have all the cards.

Chiefs at Pats
I feel kinda bad for the Chiefs. They're gonna get stomped the next two weeks.

Jets over Broncos
Raiders over Vikings
Bills over Miami
Browns over Jags
Ravens over Bungles
Lions over Panthers
Pack over Bucs
Dallas over Skins
Niners over Cards
Seattle over St. Louis
Falcons over Titans
Chargers over Bears
Giants over Eagles
Pats over Chiefs

Keller's Picks, Week 11

2011-11-16T12:54:00.000-08:00

(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)

Well, I got crushed again last week, but I called Seahawks over hated Ravens and went 4-2 in swing games. I am officially on the Bears bandwagon and that large crashing sound you heard was me jumping off the bandwagons of the Lions, Panthers, and Bills. I thought that would give me three sure-fire wins this week. Then I discovered that the Panthers play the Lions. Ah, well. On with the picks.

NY Jets at Denver:
Don't get me wrong, I'm all about the Football Jesus. I just don't think he has enough miracles in him to beat an angry and cornered Jets team. Home field isn't an advantage for the Broncos at this point in the season and I think the Broncos are just bad enough on defense to make the Jets look good. They looked pretty crappy on Sunday night, so this is no small feat.

Buffalo at Miami:
Yes, I'm aware that I said I was off the Bills bandwagon. But, they've struggled recently because they've been playing decent-to-good pass defenses and Ryan Fitzpatrick's QBERT rating plummeted as a result. The Dolphins pass defense is awful, so he gets back on track this week.

Cincinnati at Baltimore:
This is the second week in a row that the Bengals draw an opponent that lost a craptastic, frustrating game the week before. This is the second week in a row that the Bengals will lose to that opponent. But... the line's a little crazy (Baltimore -7), so take Cincy if you're picking on spreads.

Jacksonville at Cleveland:
Honestly, I have no idea. I really should take the home team, but I'm tired of picking the Browns and then finding out they did something dumb to blow the game. This one could end in a 0-0 tie, unless there's a defensive touchdown.

Oakland at Minnesota:
The Vikings are favored by one, which confuses the hell out of me. I know that Run DMC is probably out for this game, but he's been out for a few weeks. I checked around to see if Minnesota was able to clone Jared Allen and Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson, but Google said no. I also checked to make sure that Carson Palmer was still alive and he is. I have no idea why a 5-4 team working on 11 days rest would be underdogs to a 2-7 team that got destroyed on Monday Night Football.

Carolina at Detroit:
Stupid bandwagon widows playing each other the week after I jump off. Seriously, I should be able to take this one off the board. When in doubt, take the home team.

Tampa at Green Bay:
That Aaron Rodgers, he's a good football player. Did you know that the gestation period of an elephant is 22 months? I just wanted to add something else here to make it look like I did my homework.

Dallas at Washington:
Redskins lost by 11 points to Miami last week and the Cowboys destroyed the Bills. Washington may be the worst team in the league and they decided to go back to Rex Grossman to try to jump start the offense. Any time that Sexy Rexy is your game changer, you have serious, serious problems.

Arizona at San Francisco:
Steelers West is going to crush me again with another improbable road win this week. I can feel it. Still, it would be super dumb to actually pick against the 49ers.

Seattle at St. Louis:
I hate picking the Rams. I really do. But, they followed up their upset of the Giants with a 6-3 loss to Cleveland. I think the "crazy upset then crapping the bed on the road" trend continues.

Tennessee at Atlanta:
Oh, great. Two of the most schizophrenic teams in the league are playing each other. Not sure which version of which team is going to show up on either side, but Atlanta's home. Where they choked big time against the Saints in Week 10. I hate this game.

San Diego at Chicago:
YEAH! GO BEARS! WOOOOOOOOOOOO! *checks to make sure he has a clear path to exit bandwagon*

Philadelphia at NY Giants:
I know Eli and company lost at San Francisco last week, but I think they might be the second best team in the NFC. The Eagles are... not so much. They lost at home to Steelers West last week. That's just embarrassing. I'm all about betting against the Dream Team at this point.

Kansas City at New England:
Hey, so, never bet against Tom Brady. The moneyline for this game is KC +720. I wonder how they feel about that. Like, are they depressed? Motivated? Constipated? I'll go with the last two, but taking the points might not be a bad idea.

Line of the Week:
I'm all in on the Chicago bandwagon (Chicago -3.5). I think they win by a touchdown, even if they don't dismantle the Chargers like they did the Lions.

Moneyline of the Week:
Bills (+111) over Dolphins. That's the "upset" that I'm the most comfortable with. Both teams are taking on water, but Buffalo has more buckets.

Over/Under of the Week:
Dallas at Washington (41.5, OVER). I think the Cowboys might score 42 points all by themselves, so this is easy money.

NY Jets over Denver
Buffalo over Miami
Baltimore over Cincinnati
Jacksonville over Cleveland
Oakland over Minnesota
Detroit over Carolina
Green Bay over Tampa
Dallas over Washington
San Francisco over Arizona
St. Louis over Seattle
Atlanta over Tennessee
Chicago over San Diego
NY Giants over Philadelphia
New England over Kansas City

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Bengals

2011-11-16T10:19:00.000-08:00

In the interest of full disclosure, I will say that I was only able to catch the last 35 seconds of this game. I got on a plane in Chicago at 12 p.m. Central time and landed in Austin at 2:55 p.m. Central time, which means I was in the air from kickoff to Victory Formation.

I read the recaps and all the Monday morning stuff, checked out the box score, and it looks like a missed a pretty good game. I didn't see any of the bad stuff, but looking at it from the outside, I can only think of good news.

The Steelers were 3-for-4 in the red zone. That's huge. Rashard Mendenhall was also able to punch it in twice from inside the ten, which is good news for the goal-to-go offense. That's an area where they struggled all season and the Cincinnati defense is not a bunch of pushovers. Their front seven is a big test for any team and the Steelers passed.
Suisham didn't miss any kicks. Jeff Reed is still available.
Holy crap, two turnovers! I think the defense might be on pace to record ten or maybe even 12 turnovers this season. Seriously, though, both picks came when the Bengals were trying to come back, so they were both huge. Well done, William Gay.
Andy Dalton had two touchdown passes, but he also threw two interceptions and needed 30 pass attempts (completed only 15) to get to 170 yards. The only real issue is that the Steelers didn't record any sacks. I talked to a couple of people who said that they didn't blitz much, so that makes sense.
Oh, here's some bad news: Ben Roethlisberger was sacked five times and hit another 13 times. That's pretty ridiculous, especially considering how well the line has been pass blocking lately. Did Cincinnati blitz a lot and the Steelers didn't max protect and/or keep Heath in to block? Maybe leave something in the comments and let me know. I was going to DVR the game, but I don't get back from Austin until late Thursday, so I figured I wouldn't have time to watch it.

Now for the really good news. Since the hated Ravens lost to Seattle (CALLED IT), the Steelers are in first place in the division. They have a bye in Week 11 and Baltimore and Cincy play each other. One of those teams is coming out of that game with four losses and the other will have three losses, which means the winner will be tied with the Steelers for the division lead. I hope the hated Ravens lose, but I don't think that's going to happen. If Cincy beats Baltimore, then the Steelers are still in first place because Sunday's win gives them the tiebreaker over the Bengals.

We're ten games into the season and the Steelers are 7-3 with a bye week to get healthy. That late bye is especially big for them, since they're an old team and it's better for them to rest and recover later in the season. There's another game with the Bengals looming on the schedule, but there's also two games against the Browns, one against the hapless Rams, and one at Kansas City. It's a very winnable stretch and the Bengals and hated Ravens have to play each other twice before the end of the year, so I'm liking how the division race is shaking out.

Is it weird that the Monday night game against the 49ers is shaping up to be one of the biggest games of the season (for both teams)? Yeah, I think it's weird.

Defending the Bungles: Steelers at Bengals Preview

2011-11-12T15:05:00.000-08:00

The Cincinnati Bengals are 6-2 on the season and they're in first place in the AFC North. That was weird to type. This is a team that people picked to finish anywhere between 1-15 and 4-12 before the season started. The fact that they're 6-2 and in first place has led a number of people to try to come up with reasons as to why this is possible. They've been lucky, they haven't played anyone, they're not ready to step up against elite competition.

Well, they don't make the schedule. They just play the games that are on the schedule. The one time they played against elite competition, the 49ers needed to rally late to beat them. Sure, four of their wins are against Seattle, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Tennessee, but four of the Steelers' wins are against those teams. Against elite competition, the Steelers are 1-3, with a win against the Patriots, two losses to the hated Ravens, and a loss to Houston. It could be that it's the Steelers that aren't ready for prime time.

This season has played out in a very similar manner to 2009 for Cincinnati. They're coming off a bad season. Everyone's talking about Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Everyone thinks the Steelers -- coming off a Super Bowl appearance -- will roll an overrated Bengals team that isn't ready to win this game. Well, I've learned something from the 2009 season and certainly won't be underestimating the Bengals like I did then. Actually, twice.

Cincinnati is a solid, tough team with a solid, tough defense. They're not explosive on offense, but they're efficient. Rookie Andy Dalton has been impressive thus far and is 4-1 on the road. He hasn't gotten rattled when teams have blitzed him and he isn't acting like a rookie quarterback. Dick LeBeau loves to face rookie quarterbacks and he's got an exceptionally strong track record against them, but I think that Dalton will be able to hold his own on Sunday.

Ordinarily, this would be a much bigger game for the Bengals than the Steelers. Cincinnati has been, in their eyes, disrespected. They've heard all the talk that they're overrated, they're lucky, and that they haven't beat anyone. They know that the best way to quiet all their detractors is to beat the Steelers on Sunday. They're at home, it's a division game, and they will be very intense and highly motivated. But, the Steelers suffered an emotional loss to Baltimore on Sunday night and all their guys are angry and determined. Throw in the fact that there may be more Steeler fans at the game than Bengal fans and that levels the intensity playing field.

This game will come down to who makes the plays they need to make when they need to make them. When the Steelers get in the red zone, they need to close the deal. When Cincinnati faces third down, the defense needs to get off the field. I'm past the point of thinking that the Steelers will suddenly start forcing turnovers. If they're going to end the season with seven or eight forced turnovers, then they're going to need to get off the field on third down in order to survive.

Dalton is playing beyond his years, so just blitzing the hell out of him isn't going to get the job done. The Steelers need to get pressure with four guys and vary their coverage schemes in the secondary. This is not an explosive offense, so the defenders need to play sound fundamental football. They need to wrap up on tackles, not take bad angles, and always be in position. This is an efficient offense, but it's a young offense. If the Steelers force them to plod their way down the field and play a perfect game, then someone somewhere is going to screw up. It will be a battle of wills and the Steelers can't be the first ones to flinch.

On defense, Cincinnati has a good front seven that gets consistent pressure, but isn't as ferocious or relentless as the front seven for the hated Ravens. If the pass blocking holds up and the front five play as well as they've played in recent weeks, then Ben Roethlisberger should have enough time to throw. That's important, because he's going to need to take some shots deep. Bengals cornerbacks Leon Hal and Nate Clements are both great players and they're accomplished man-to-man defenders. But, given the talent levels of Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace and the fact that the rules are set up to favor the offense, neither Clements nor Hall can cover their guys one-on-one deep. The Bengals safeties are a liability. When this pass defense has gotten beat, it's gotten beat deep. Roethlisberger's first read needs to be to the deep man and he needs to throw the ball long early and often. Cincinnati doesn't have the kind of offense that can overcome a big deficit, so a big, early lead will be the best way to take some of the wind out of the sails of the home team and the home crowd.

The Bengals are second in the league in run defense and allow a league best 3.3 yards per carry. I don't think the Steelers will be able to run on them, but they have to try and they have to run the ball efficiently. If they're purposefully one-dimensional like they were against the Patriots, then they have a chance to move the ball and score some points. If Cincinnati completely shuts the run game down and the Steelers abandon the run for the pass, it's going to be a long day for Roethlisberger. He also probably won't have time in the pocket to wait for the deep receiver to break free. That's a lethal combination right there, so they need to take steps to ensure it doesn't play out that way.

Point blank, the Steelers are a more talented team than the Bengals. They have more weapons on offense, more game changers on defense, a better quarterback, and a dangerous returner in Antonio Brown. But, games are not won and lost on talent alone. Cincinnati has been winning games because of their patience, their discipline, and their ability to make timely plays. If they keep the game tight and make more of those plays than the Steelers, they will win this game.

It's going to be a fight. It's not going to be easy. It's going to take a tremendous effort from the Steelers in all phases of the game. I think they're up for the challenge.

Prediction:
Steelers 24, Bengals 20

Weidman's Picks, Week 10

2011-11-10T05:42:00.000-08:00

(Click here to view current Pick Em Standings, week-by-week and YTD.)

I gained a little ground on Keller last week, but I still took a drubbing. Upsets can ruin anyone's day. Doesn't help also having to deal with the Steelers losing to the hated Ravens this week.

Raiders at Chargers
Although their records are tied, Chargers are really coming alive, the Raiders are sagging a bit and the Chargers are at home. Take San Diego.

Bills at Cowboys
This is my stupid pick of the week. I know that the Cowboys are heavily favored at home, but I just like the Bills better this season. I know they screwed up bad against the Jets last week, but this is a new week. Cowboys are always overrated, and this season they deserve it less than most.

Titans at Carolina
Another one of those cases where I just don't agree with the line - not even the overall pick. Tennessee hasn't been great on the road - but Carolina is just crap this season and they've lost more at home than they've won. I actually think the Titans are going pull an upset this week.

Texans at Bucs
Close call here, and one of those cases where the safe bet is the home team, even if I'm not wild about them. Play it safe with the Bucs.

Jags at Indy
Crap hosting slightly less crap. I dunno...I really, really don't see the Colts going completely winless this season, and this is their best bet so far. I think the line mainly reflects that the Colts are experiencing one of the biggest melt-downs of all time (citation needed) and not the actual game. Indy brings it.

Steelers West at Eagles
Bird fight, and as in nature, and Eagle wins over a Cardinal any day.

Saints at Falcons
This one is too close to easily call. A few weeks ago, I would have had a much easier choice, but the Saints haven't aged well this season and the Falcons are gaining strength. However, by a hair, I'm taking the Saints.

Rams at Browns
Another crap on crap match-up with the home team being slightly better. Take the Brownies.

Skins at Miami
Going by the records, Skins would be the call, but the game is more than records. Miami's at home and hungry to stay ahead of the Colts (terrible teams do that, right?) so I'm gonna take the fish.

Bronos at Chiefs
I still don't have much faith in the horsies, and the Chiefs are at home. It's not gonna be flashy, but I'll take them.

Steelers at Bungles
Last week was a tough loss. A division loss. To the Ravens. This is something the Steelers can't take lying down. We've got a lot of ground to make up to keep a hold on Baltimore, and Pittsburgh knows this. Also, the Steelers are historically good on the road when their backs are up against it.

Ravens at Seahawks
Bird fight, part II. There's really no breaking this one down - Ravens win handily.

Lions at Bears
I'm sold on the Lions and not on the Bears, oh my. They're not the favorites, but I think Detroit's gonna stack up another win.

New York Football Giants at San Fran
The Giants had a great game on the road last week, but I don't think they're gonna do it again...and, dare I say it, San Fran might just be better than the Pats this year.

Pats at Jets
Okay, granted, every time I don't bet on Brady, he wins...but, seriously - if the Jets can beat the Pats in Foxboro, they can beat them at home...but it can go either way. Take the Jets by one of Brady's expensively coiffed hairs.

Vikes at the Pack
I've mentioned it before, but it sucks for everyone involved when a rivalry is totally lopsided, and they don't get much more lopsided than here. The hapless Vikes are on the road against Rogers and his stupid touchdown dance.

Chargers over Raiders
Bills over Cowboys
Titans over Carolina
Bucs over Texans
Indy over Jags
Eagles over Steelers West
Saints over Falcons
Browns over Rams
Miami over Skins
Chiefs over Bronos
Steelers over Bungles
Ravens over Seahawks
Lions over Bears
San Fran over New York Football Giants
Jets over Pats
Pack over Vikes

Keller's Picks, Week 10

2011-11-09T13:36:00.000-08:00

(Click here to view current Pick Em Standings, week-by-week and YTD.)

I am going to do something that is either vastly idiotic or incredibly brilliant. It's probably vastly idiotic, but at least I have reasons to back my idiocy up. I have been picking mostly favorites thus far and I've gotten crushed the last few weeks because of all the upsets.

I have identified what I believe to be some prime upset candidates and I will back them this week. I have a nine game lead over Weidman and I've performed well in swing games thus far. If I can take a high percentage of those games this week -- since he's been taking mostly favorites as well -- I can come that much closer to locking up the title.

If I'm wrong, then I'll know that the NFL has returned to a semi-sane point and I can go back to picking the favorites. Well, really, if I'm wrong then I'm going back to picking the favorites because that's a higher percentage game. But, I've thought through several scenarios, analyzed the match-ups, and done some regressions, and I feel as though the upsets I've targeted are as "sure" as they can get.

Oakland at San Diego:
Having said that, I'm not a total moron. Philip Rivers has returned to a respectable QBERT rating and almost came back to beat the Packers last week. Oakland will be without Darren McFadden, Carson Palmer has a QBERT rating in the teens, and they lost to freaking Denver last week.

Steelers at Cincinnati:
This is a tough match-up and it should be a close game, but I think the Steelers will pull this one out after a tough loss to the hated Ravens on Sunday night. It's not that I don't believe in the Bengals. God help me, I think Andy Dalton is going to be very good and AJ Green scares me. They have a solid defense and I think they are for real. It's just that I believe in the Steelers more.

Denver at Kansas City:
This is where I start to come off the rails. It'll get worse, so just hang in there. I'm not a huge fan of Football Jesus, but I have to say that he adds a certain air of unpredictability to a game. With two teams that are difficult to handicap in a game that could go either way, you go with the wild card. Tebow is that wild card and will end up doing something weird to either win or lose this game. I'm betting he does something weird that gives the Broncos a W.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis:
The Colts may be an awful, awful team, but the Jags aren't much better. Indy is at home, they're angry about all the Suck for Luck talk, their coach has come under fire, and they have a bunch of veteran leadership that will help carry them into the bye week with something positive to focus on. Even given all that, I'm still in doubt. That means I take the home team.

Houston at Tampa:
I'm still not sold on the Bucs, I think Arian Foster is an unstoppable death machine, and I think Josh Freeman's heroics are behind him. They'll need a huge performance from Freeman to win this game and I don't think he has it in him.

Buffalo at Dallas:
The Cowboys have been quietly solid the last few weeks. After years of being labeled as overrated, I think they're happy with just being rated. I think the Bills started to believe the hype and they came into the Jets game overconfident. They'll be focused this week, but Dallas has similar personnel to the Jets and I think DeMarcus Ware has a field day on Ryan Fitzpatrick and this spread offense.

Tennessee at Carolina:
Road teams coming off a bye have not done well this year, but home teams have been consistent. I'm not buying the line, personally (Panthers -3.5), but I think Carolina will win. I'm on the fence, which means I'm in doubt, which means take the home team.

Washington at Miami:
Lesser of two evils and the home team. Let's just pretend this game isn't even happening and move on.

NOLA at Atlanta:
I'm not saying that the fact that the Falcons beat the Colts like a rented mule (hey, that actually works!) makes them a great team. I think that, at home, playing with some confidence, and facing a very shaky defense, the Falcons can make this happen. The pieces are starting to fall together for Atlanta and I think they're on their way up, while the Saints are on their way down. Not "out of the playoff picture" down, just not "unstoppable juggernaut like the Packers" up.

Detroit at Chicago:
I'm gonna put two statements that are true but sound absurd back-to-back: The Lions play better at home and the Lions pass rush will be too much for the Bears. Chicago used a lot of max protect schemes against the Eagles on Monday night and were successful, but Detroit will be able to rush four and drop seven and still get some pressure. I think that's the difference.

St. Louis at Cleveland:
Last week, I needed a running back. I picked up Chris Ogbonnaya. It took me ten minutes to find him because I had a hell of a time trying to figure out how to spell his name (used OB at the start the first few times and probably also used OY). I found him, picked him up, and he fumbled on his first play from scrimmage. He's the best option Cleveland has at running back. I still picked the Browns, because the Rams are that horrible.

Arizona at Philadelphia:
Hugely successful passing attack against hugely sucktastic secondary? This one could get ugly.

Baltimore at Seattle:
I have not lost my mind. The last time the hated Ravens won an emotional game over the Steelers, they went on the road and got destroyed by a Titans team that I just picked to lose to Carolina. The AFC has been a mess this year. Every week, there's a new "Team to Beat" and every week that team loses. It's Baltimore's turn this week.

Yes, thank you. I know this is a dumb idea. But, if the NFL (especially the AFC) has truly been turned upside down, then this would be the best singular representation of that chaos. Or something like that.

NY Giants at San Francisco:
I hope there is enough room on the 49ers bandwagon for me. If not, I can easily jump off. I don't feel great about this pick, but I'm tired of picking against San Francisco and picking wrong. The NFC has been much more consistent this year.

New England at NY Jets:
Brady already lost at home last week, so I'm surprised the sun came up on Monday. But, really, the Pats lose three straight? The Jets have the right combination of guys to play man on the New England receivers and shut them down. They're playing well enough on offense to score enough to win. Right now, the Jets are trending up and the Patriots are trending down.

Minnesota at Green Bay:
But, there's no stopping the trend of Packers victories. At least this week. I'll keep picking them until they lose. If they lose, I'll probably pick them again because Aaron Rodgers has a 100 QBERT rating and he's on my fantasy team (the good one).

Line of the Week:
Giants (+3.5) at 49ers. Something about this game reeks of a three point victory. That smell might just be the gash on my arm getting infected. I cut it when I jumped on the 49ers bandwagon.

Moneyline of the Week:
Detroit (+136) at Chicago. I picked a lot of upsets this week, but this is the one I'm most confident in.

Over/Under of the Week:
Oakland at San Diego (47.5/UNDER). Scoring is down across the league the last few weeks (by "down" I mean 43 points per game). These two teams have struggled at different points on both sides of the ball and they're both turnover machines. How is it that they score more than the average this week? I don't see it.

San Diego over Oakland
Steelers over Bengals
Denver over Kansas City
Indianapolis over Jacksonville
Houston over Tampa
Dallas over Buffalo
Carolina over Tennessee
Miami over Washington
Atlanta over NOLA
Detroit over Chicago
Cleveland over St. Louis
Philadelphia over Arizona
Seattle over Baltimore
San Francisco over NY Giants
NY Jets over New England
Green Bay over Minnesota

Good News and Bad News: Steelers vs. Hated Ravens

2011-11-07T18:09:00.000-08:00

Well, the really good news is that my wife's cousin was in from out of town and we went to the game together. We had a great time and it was an incredible game... right up until the end there.

The bad news on that front is that, after starting my career undefeated when seeing the Steelers live, I just picked up my sixth loss. Maybe it's my seventh. Not sure. I'm on either a 3-6 or 3-7 run, so maybe I should stop going. I think that's a good call.

Good news first:

James Harrison returned with a vengeance. Wow, what a game: Eight tackles, three sacks, three tackles for loss, and six quarterback hits. If he can stay hot, the pass rush is going to be extremely dangerous when Woodley comes back.
The Steelers forced a turnover! Gotta celebrate the small victories.
For the third consecutive week, the offensive line looked good. Rashard Mendenhall averaged four yards a carry -- a good number against Baltimore -- they managed to punch it in inside the five, and Ben Roethlisberger was only sacked once.
I know the pass defense had a meltdown in the last drive, but they actually played well. Joe Flacco did throw for 300 yards, but he needed 47 attempts to do it. Roethlisberger threw for 30 more yards on ten fewer attempts. Yes, that last drive was awful. Yes, the secondary again failed to record an interception. But, holding an opposing quarterback to 6.4 yards per attempt is a win for the pass defense, even if it didn't translate to a win in the standings.
Ray Rice had 86 total yards. I would accept that as a win. I was shocked that he only averaged 2.4 yards per attempt and they kept him from breaking a long run. Stopping Ray Rice and making Flacco beat you is generally a good strategy. It just didn't work on Sunday night. The percentages are more in your favor if you make Flacco beat you than if you take your focus away from Rice. If these teams meet again, the percentages will favor the Steelers if they're able to shut Rice down.
I doubt we'll see a collapse like that again the rest of the season. Maybe they got it out of their systems?

Now for the bad news:

Two turnovers. They need to take care of the ball, especially when they're not forcing turnovers on defense. Yes, one of those turnovers was when Mike Wallace tried to run the Stanford Play at the end of the game, but that doesn't excuse Roethlisberger's interception.
The hated Ravens ran 77 plays and the Steelers only ran 58. It could be that the defense was worn out after running around so much. Facing 77 plays against the Colts or Seahawks is different than facing 77 plays against Baltimore. There's a higher intensity level, the collisions are more violent, and the magnitude of the game puts stress on your body. If the defense had gotten off the field on third down -- Baltimore was 14-for-21 in that area -- then maybe they would have had more gas in their tanks at the end.
Jeff Reed is still available. One of the issues for the Steelers is that Tomlin doesn't trust Shaun Suisham. That's why he waited for a delay of game penalty on fourth and six at the hated Ravens 30. Honestly, I was pretty hammered at the time and thought it was only fourth and two and that the Steelers should go for it. Or, at third and ten, there should be a two down strategy. Take what you can get, then go for it on fourth down. But, the larger issue is that Tomlin doesn't trust Suisham and Kevin Colbert needs to get on the phone and see who else is out there. Oh, look at that. Jeff Reed is available.
The largest issue, though, is that the Steelers were 1-for-4 in the red zone, with one turnover. If they go 2-for-4 or 3-for-4, then Flacco's late game heroics turn into him padding his stats at garbage time.
Mike Wallace was targeted only six times and Antonio Brown was targeted 11 times. From where I was sitting, it looked like Wallace broke out deep on a few plays, but Roethlisberger wasn't looking for him. When you have a weapon like Wallace, you need to use him. That's me talking as a Steeler fan and not as someone that has Wallace on my fantasy team.

There's more good news than bad for this game because I thought the Steelers played very well. They just couldn't finish the game out and they couldn't finish when they got inside the 20. The issues with the offensive and defensive lines appear to be resolved. They're still not forcing turnovers and they're still turning the ball over too much. When you don't force turnovers, then turning the ball over once is too many. They need to put more work in on red zone drills -- both on offense and defense -- so that the offense gets better and the defense gets better.

The silver lining is that they're only a half game back and they've only played two division games thus far. They have seven games left, with two each against Cincinnati and Cleveland, starting at Cincy next week. Given that the hated Ravens swept them this season, they're no longer in the driver's seat in the division, but they're at least sitting shotgun.

God help me, the Bengals are in first place and they will play two tough games against the Steelers in the coming month. First order of business is to report back to work, try to get better, put Sunday night in the past, and focus on the next game on the schedule. Maybe Baltimore suffers another letdown after another emotional victory over their bitter rival. They're at Seattle and the Seahawks play tougher at home. But, the fact remains that the Steelers can only control what they do, so they need to re-focus and kick the crap out of the Bungles next week.

Let's Do This: Hated Ravens at Steelers Preview

2011-11-04T13:02:00.000-07:00

Heading into Sunday night's game, there is only one thing I know for sure: The Steelers won't get blown out like they did in Week 1. Other than that, I am not sure about anything.

I don't think it will be a high-scoring affair. I don't think the Steelers will blow the hated Ravens out and that makes me sad. I think the Steelers can (and will) win this game, but I don't know that for sure. There will be no Flacco Jersey bets this year.

Well, I guess I know two other things for sure: I know that I'm very excited for the game and I know what they need to do to win. Just like with the Patriots, it's pretty easy to figure out how to beat Baltimore. The actual execution is the difficult part.

Don't Turn the Ball Over:

This is kind of a general thing, but it was certainly overlooked on opening day. It's true that the Steelers have turned the ball over 13 times and the hated Ravens have forced 16 turnovers. But, if you take into account that seven of those turnovers/takeaways came in the first game, the Steelers have only given the ball up six times in seven games and Baltimore has only taken it away nine times in six games. That's still a big number for the HR, but they had four more takeaways against the Jets, which means five in five games.

Um... Let's just keep with, "Don't turn the ball over."

Since the Steelers can't seem to force any turnovers this year, they'll need to hang onto the ball to win. Turning it over once probably means losing the turnover battle and that can't happen.

Contain Ray Rice:

This has the second lowest easy-to-type/difficult-to-execute ratio. Rice is an elusive, explosive, athletic player that has great vision, catches the ball well, and is tough to bring down. We saw that first hand in Week 1 and pretty much throughout his career. Like with Maurice Jones-Drew, there's no real way to completely shut him down; you just need to limit the damage he does.

The defensive line has been much better in terms of gap discipline and attacking the line of scrimmage the last five games, so that's part of the solution. The fact that LaMarr Woodley and James Farrior probably won't play is a big problem. If the d-line can get him moving east-to-west, the linebackers -- even if they're not the starters -- should be able to close on him and bring him down. James Harrison looks like he might return, which means that Lawrence Timmons can move back to the inside. That's a key factor in containing Rice. Not containing him as a runner, but making sure he doesn't kill you catching checkdowns from Joe Flacco.

In the past, Rice has still been a big factor in games where the Steelers have bottled him up as a runner. He's accomplished this by catching a four yard dump-off pass and turning it into a ten yard gain. The Steelers need to have a spy on Rice at all times. Troy makes the most sense, but he'll be busy roaming around the secondary and hopefully causing problems for Flacco there. That means Timmons needs to get back to his Team Assassin ways and focus on murdering Ray Rice. I think it can be done and I think Timmons (v 2010) would be the man for the job.

Suggs and Ngata:

Here's your lowest easy-to-type/difficult-to-execute ratio. These two guys have destroyed the Steelers the past few years and were particularly destructive in Week 1. Yes, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis still make plays, but Suggs and Ngata just seem to straight-up murder them. I think the pass protection has improved since Max Starks came back and I think Starks is a big upgrade over Jonathan Scott, but there's only so much lipstick you can put on this situation. Ramon Foster is an upgrade over Legursky and a healthy Kemo will fare better against Ngata than the last time out, but neither guy is in Ngata's class.

Just like with Ray Rice, there's no way to take these guys completely out of the game. You just need to know where they are, know where they're going, and try like hell to stop them. If Foster, Pouncey, Kemo, and Starks win more battles than they lose, then the Steelers can win. If Ngata and Suggs go off like they did in Week 1, well you saw the results.

Pass to Set Up the Run:

This is a good idea for two reasons: It has worked the past few weeks and it lets the Steelers know what they're working with early. Ben Roethlisberger threw the ball a lot more in the first half the past few weeks -- especially against New England -- and they were able to move the ball and get some open space in the running game. Historically, open space in the running game has been extremely rare against the hated Ravens, so this strategy is worth a shot. My thinking is that there won't be a whole lot of things that go well for the Steelers on offense and they may as well find out how poorly things are going to go as early as possible.

If they work Roethlisberger out of the shotgun early, then he'll have more time to get rid of the ball and they'll be able to gauge Baltimore's plan on defense. If the hated Ravens bring the house, then I think Roethlisberger will shred them, since he's been very effective against the blitz thus far this season. If they rush four or five guys and get to him almost immediately, then it's time to try something different. The issue in the first game was that Suggs and Ngata were in Roethlisberger's face as soon as he said "Hut" so Baltimore didn't need to blitz that much. If they're not successful rushing four or five guys -- meaning Suggs and Ngata are being somewhat contained -- then they'll start sending more guys and then they're screwed.

So...

I think it's possible that the Steelers can accomplish all these things, but I don't know how likely it is. I would love to see a blow out -- I hate the hated Ravens, I'm playing a guy this week who has Rice, Flacco, and Baltimore's defense, I hate the hated Ravens -- but who would be stupid enough to predict something like that?

I think it's close. I think the Steelers win more of these battles than they lose. I think, in the end, Roethlisberger makes all the difference.

Prediction:
Steelers 17, Hated Ravens 13

Weidman's Picks, Week 9

2011-11-02T19:54:00.000-07:00

Click here to view the current Pick Em Standings (week-by-week and YTD)

Half-way through the season and 10 games behind Keller. Not the end of the world, but I need to step up my game. Or, you know, just not fall farther behind. Something like that.

Jets at Buffalo
Yuck. I've gotta start this out on an unsure foot. There's only a 1 point line on this game and (note that I still hate this phrase) the Jets are better than their record. However, I still think the Bills are going to make some noise in the post-season and they're at home.

Browns at Texans
Wow. I think the line on this game is way out of whack, but I don't think the result is wrong. Texans win this one.

Miami at Chiefs
Are the Dolphins going to go 0-8? Is that still possible in the NFL? Yes it is. (Yes, Indy - I see your hand up over there. Just put your head down and take a nap. Everyone is trying to pretend you aren't playing this year.)

Seattle at Dallas
Okay, Vegas - once again, I question your hatred of certain teams. Also, once again, I'm not going to disagree with the bottom line. Dallas is a shell of their normal selves, but the Seahawks were bad to start with and now they have key injuries on the road.

Niners at Redskins
Finally - a road team I can back. Niners are strong, the Skins are weak and fading. Take the Niners.

Bucs at Saints
Normally, this would be an easy pick. This week? F*(% no. The Saints lost to the Rams last week. The winless Rams. I mean, they're still gonna win this week, but it's not a slam dunk. 5-3 and a loss to the Rams suddenly makes the Saints look a lot more vulnerable.

Atlanta at Indy
Hey, Indy - wake up for a second. You suck. Now go back to sleep.

Denver at Oakland
Broncos have the consolation that they're not the worst team in the league, but that's about all I can say about them. Oakland is still strong(ish) and they don't give a flying fish if Palmer has TJ Hoosyourmama back on his team.

Bungles at Titans
Here's an underdog pick for yinz guys. Titans are favored, but the Bungles are....please don't make me say it. *sigh* Okay: the Bungles are the better team, and better by more than the one-game advantage they currently have.

NY Football Giants at Pats
Look, I'm thrilled that we stomped the crap out of Pretty Boy last week, but I'm going to return to form and remind everyone that betting against Brady is stupid in regular situations, and super stupid when he's at home. Now, the Giants are a good team and they'll put up a fight - there's history there, so it's going to be close. This one will be fun.

Pack at Chargers
Until they lose, I won't even consider picking against Rogers.

Rams at Steelers West
Both teams are looking bad this year, but I think last week was a fluke for the Rams. Also, the Cards have a bad record but decent play. Take them at home.

Bears at Eagles
Eagles still aren't the team advertised, but they're at home and it's Monday night. I think they're going to take this one.

Ravens at Steelers
Saved the best for last. I really just can't even contain myself on this one. The Ravens are streaky, the Steelers are getting stronger. Suggs is talking shit. Now, they actually had to have a huge come-from-behind victory last week against the Cards - that's not something they should have needed to do. Even so, they are not the team that kicked us all over the field in week one. A lot of people are writing them off, but that's dangerous. Think about if the Steelers had performed like Baltimore this season. Right now, their chests would be pumped out, Hines would be saying that no one says we can win, Keis would be calmly saying that we're a team on the rise and Tomlin would explain it's a process.

But none of that matters. Every game against the Ravens is a fresh start. Nothing else in the entire league or season matters to either team. It's knock-down, drag-out, eat-your-opponent's-heart-through-their-smashed-mouth football...and this week it's the Sunday night game.

(Sorry, Sally - but your birds are losing this week.)

Buffalo over Jets
Texans over Browns
Chiefs over Miami
Dallas over Seattle
Niners over Redskins
Saints over Bucs
Atlanta over Indy
Oakland over Denver
Bungles over Titans
Pats over NY Football Giants
Pack over Chargers
Steelers West over Rams
Eagles over Bears
Steelers over Ravens

Keller's Picks, Week 9

2011-11-02T14:19:00.000-07:00

Click here to view the current Pick Em Standings (week-by-week and YTD)

Last week wasn't fantastic, but I managed to go 1-1 in swing games and maintain my lead over Weidman. I have not, however, had much luck with the Over/Under of the Week or Line of the Week. So... maybe don't bet heavy on those and just stick to the Moneyline of the Week, which has been fairly consistent.

I need a big week this week so that I can (hopefully) pull away from the competition.

Atlanta at Indianapolis:

Law of averages says that the Colts should win eventually, but I don't see it happening this week. The bummer part is that Indy doesn't play Miami this season, so we're going to miss out on the Andrew Luck Bowl.

Tampa at NOLA:

The Saints are angry after losing to the Rams last week, Tampa is overrated, and the fact that the Bucs are coming off a bye doesn't really scare me. The fact that Tampa beat NOLA earlier this year doesn't scare me. Drew Brees and that offense playing with something to prove scares me.

Cleveland at Houston:

The Texans seem to understand that they just need to keep it together, win the winnable games, and survive the season without choking. The Browns don't seem to understand that you need to score points to win games. I'd take the points on this one (Browns +10.5), but it's not my line of the week. I think Cleveland hangs in there and the Texans slowly put them away.

NY Jets at Buffalo:

I can't say that I'm really sold on the Bills, but I'll also say that I'm not sold on the Jets. If it was just a matter of quarterbacks-versus-pass-defenses, then I'd take the Jets. But, the Jets haven't shown that they can run the ball effectively, the Bills have shown that they can, and the New York run defense is pretty suspect.

Miami at Kansas City:

KC has come back in a big way and they're also catching some breaks (like they did in overtime on Monday night). They're at home and the Dolphins are the second worst team in the league.

San Francisco at Washington:

Hello, worst team in the league! Yes, the 3-4 Redskins are worse than the 0-7 Dolphins and the 0-7 Colts. They're a mess on both sides of the ball. I'm super glad that I divested my fantasy team of all Redskins in Week 3.

Seattle at Dallas:

My faith in Dallas is waning, but I have zero faith in the Seahawks without Tavaris Jackson. Charlie Whitehurst has a negative QBERT rating and Pete Carroll is finally starting to show why he should've stayed in school.

Denver at Oakland:

Carson Palmer has been re-united with TJ Houshmanzadeh. Championship! But seriously, folks. Football Jesus isn't going to be able to miracle his way out of this one, either.

Cincinnati at Tennessee:

I'm sick of picking against the Bengals. If I had picked them every week this year, I think I'd be like 95 games over .500. Also, their defense is scary good, this Andy Dalton kid isn't half bad, and the Titans are starting to fall apart. At least they managed to beat the hated Ravens before they realized they suck.

St. Louis at Arizona:
In a classic, "When in doubt, pick the home team" situation, I'm going with the road team. Vegas isn't touching it and the lines that actually exist show Steelers West by 3. The Rams showed me more on Sunday than the Cardinals did. I think Sam Bradford comes back, Steven Jackson has a big day, and Kevin Kolb doesn't finish the game (which leaves some dude named Skeleton, I think).

NY Giants at New England:

Tom Brady has won, like, 815 consecutive (regular season) games at home, they just came off a tough loss, and I think Justin Bieber was a toddler the last time the Patriots lost two in a row. I know it's a re-match of Super Bowl XLII and the Giants won that game (18-1! 18-1! 18-1!), but don't get cute.

Green Bay at San Diego:

Something about an undefeated team traveling multiple time zones after a bye to face a cornered team on the road makes me nervous. Then I remember that the Chargers are overrated and Aaron Rodgers is really, really good. Nervousness gone.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh:

Can't see the hated Ravens sweeping the (regular season) series. I think they're different teams than they were in Week 1. I don't think one team blows out the other. It will be a close game. In that situation, I trust the home team and the quarterback with two rings.

Chicago at Philadelphia:

I'm not buying into the fact that the Dream Team is finally coming together and that they will cut a path of destruction through the rest of the league, but I will definitely take Mike Vick at home in prime time. Also, don't get cute. Also also, when in doubt, trust the home team.

Line of the Week:

49ers (-3.5) at Washington. The Redskins are awful, the 49ers are not, the 9ers are 3-0 in 1 p.m. games on the East Coast this season, and the Redskins are AWFUL. Did I mention that the Redskins are awful?

Moneyline of the Week:

Cincy (+127) at Tennessee. It's time to believe in the Bengals. Or, at least, it's time to take advantage of the fact that Vegas still doesn't believe in them.

Over/Under of the Week:
Jets at Bills (44, OVER). Something tells me this turns into a shootout, which means you should take the Under.

Atlanta over Indy
NOLA over Tampa
Houston over Cleveland
Buffalo over NY Jets
Kansas City over Miami
San Francisco over Washington
Dallas over Seattle
Oakland over Denver
Cincinnati over Tennessee
St. Louis over Arizona
New England over NY Giants
Green Bay over San Diego
Pittsburgh over Baltimore
Philly over Chicago

Good News and Bad News: Patriots at Steelers

2011-11-01T12:46:00.000-07:00

As I always say: Every time I pick the Steelers to lose, I hope and pray that I'm wrong. That means I'm glad I was wrong about this game. Sunday's game was a pretty impressive display by the home team, with more good news than bad.

Good news first:

The big story lines on Monday morning were about how Ben Roethlisberger outdueled Tom Brady, but I think the biggest story from this game was how well the secondary played. Ike Taylor was already having a big year, but supporting guys like William Gay, Cortez Allen, and Keenan Lewis really picked up their games. I was surprised (and relieved) to see how well they all played in man coverage. In general, the Zone Blitz scheme involves more blitzing and zone schemes -- hence the name -- but it was refreshing to see the Steelers take a break from what usually works for them and actually try something that had a good chance of working against the offense they matched up against. Everyone in the defensive backfield kept the intensity up all game, didn't give up a big play, and tackled well.
I was talking to someone yesterday and they mentioned that the pass rush has been much improved since Brett Keisel came back. I agree with that, but I also think LaMarr Woodley had a little something to do with the resurgence. I think Casey Hampton is playing himself back into game shape and Ziggy Hood/Cameron Heyward keep improving game by game. This is still a unit that has an age problem, but they're starting to silence some of the critics that said they were too old and too slow after the opener against the hated Ravens.
Again, I must be desensitized to pressure on Roethlisberger, because I was surprised to find out that the Patriots sacked him five times on Sunday and recorded four quarterback hits in addition to the sacks. I thought the offensive line continued to play well and improve. I thought they looked especially sharp in pass protection. If they can field the same starting five for the third week in a row in Week 9 against Baltimore, they can really start to build something good. I'm not going to say "special" or "great," because I don't think this group has that much upside. I would be more than satisfied with "good" at this point, especially considering how poorly they've played in stretches over the past few seasons.
New England converted 30 percent of their first downs (3 of 10) and the Steelers converted 62.5 percent of theirs (10 of 16). That's a huge swing.
Time of possession was also a huge factor, with the Steelers winning that battle 39:22-20:38. They did that by dropping back to pass on 55 of 78 plays, which proves that they can be just as efficient throwing the ball and playing keepaway now as they were running the ball and playing keepaway during the Cowher Era. They ended up with only 98 yards rushing, but they also averaged 4.3 yards per attempt, so I'm fine with that. I don't think that they need to pile up a bunch of yards, they just need to be efficient when they run the ball.

Bad news is mostly injury-related:

It looks like Lawrence Timmons -- who still doesn't have a sack this year -- could be the only healthy starting linebacker against the hated Ravens. Woodley has a hamstring issue, James Harrison is recovering from eye surgery (really can't rush back from something like that), and James Farrior could be out until December with a calf injury. Marcus Gilbert got hurt again. It seems to be something slightly different every game, but he also comes out every game. I think the Steelers should just rest him a week or so and make sure he's completely healthy. He's a young player that wants to impress the other guys on the roster, so he may be overstating how good he's feeling week to week.
If I were a Patriots fan, I'd be thinking that my team got pretty well dominated in all phases of the game, but still only lost by eight. That would be the good news for New England and part of the bad news for the Steelers. This is their third dominant performance of the season: Tennessee and Arizona were the other two -- but it's the first time where they pushed the other team around and weren't comfortably in the lead in the fourth quarter.
The Steelers didn't blow the Patriots out because they were 2-for-5 in the red zone and didn't force any turnovers. It's true that they're turning the ball over a lot less on offense, but they're still not forcing any turnovers on defense. At the half way point in the season, they've forced a total of three turnovers and they've converted only half of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns. That needs to improve if they're going to actually be the favorite in the AFC, as opposed to the chic pick of the week in the AFC.
Shaun Suisham missed another field goal, giving him five misses in 18 attempts. Those five missed field goals are the most in the NFL. His 72.2 percent conversion rate is 30th in the league. I know Heinz Field is a tough place to kick, but there seem to be a number of younger, better guys lying on the scrap heap right now. Jeff Reed is also available. If nothing else, the Steelers should bring a few guys in to have a look at them. Kickers have been getting more and more accurate -- and from longer distances -- over the years, but Suisham has not kept pace. The Steelers need to find someone who can keep pace. Jeff Reed is also available.

Don't get me wrong, I'm excited about the fact that I was wrong and that the Steelers won. I was overjoyed and fairly drunk on Sunday. The problem is that I don't think they're the team to beat at this point.

Yes, they're leading their division. Yes, they just beat the Patriots and hold an important tiebreaker for playoff seeding. Yes, they have a solid defense and an outstanding quarterback. Yes, the AFC is down this year due to the fact that Peyton Manning has not played and no one seems to want to win the AFC West.

There's still the red zone issue. There's still the turnovers issue. There's still a shaky kicker and an offensive line that is being held together by duct tape. There's the fact that their depth has been tested a bunch already and we're only eight games into the season. Injuries tend to pile up towards the end of the year and there are limits to every team's depth. They can't withstand more injuries to the offensive line, defensive line, or linebackers.

Homefield advantage is nice, but history -- especially Steeler history -- has proven that it doesn't guarantee a Super Bowl. They're one of the best teams in AFC, but I don't think they're the team to beat just yet.

They still need to beat the hated Ravens on Sunday night. Wins against the Chiefs and 49ers would help. They can't choke against the Bengals or Browns. But, I guess you can still call them the team to beat this week if you really, really want to.

Let's Get Real: Patriots vs. Steelers Preview

2011-10-27T19:35:00.000-07:00

Let's just get this out there right off the bat: I don't think the Steelers are going to win this game. I'd say I'm 99% certain that the Patriots are going to beat them and probably beat them soundly. That remaining 1% doesn't come from logic.

Well, so, there's a bunch of reasons. Brady's 6-1 against the Steelers for his career. The Patriots just came off a bye and they've won eight straight (regular season) games coming off a bye. Matchups are a huge issue because the Steelers don't have enough depth in the secondary (note that I said "depth" not "talent"). Then there's the fact that the Patriots tend to make better in-game adjustments than pretty much anyone, but especially the Steelers.

The thing is that understanding how to beat the Patriots is pretty easy. You need to stop Tom Brady, not get intimidated, and score enough points on offense to keep up with them. Simple, right? Well, it's also easy to understand how to make as much money as Mark Zuckerberg, it's just incredibly difficult to come up with something like Facebook and take the right steps to make sure it takes off. The difficulty of the task lies in the execution, which is why New England hasn't lost a lot of games in the last decade or so.

Here's what they need to do, but I doubt that they'll be able to do it.

Contain Wes Welker:

If Ike Taylor is as successful against Welker as he was against Larry Fitzgerald last week, that counts as a win. I'm not saying he will have had a bad game if Welker gets more than four receptions for 78 yards. I'm saying that Fitz caught four balls on ten targets last week, so he only caught a pass 40% of the time. Welker has been targeted an average of 13 times a game thus far this season. To make the math easy, let's say he gets targeted 15 times on Sunday. If he finishes with six catches, that's a good sign.

Taylor has had a very good season thus far and I think he's up to the task, but he's also struggled against Welker in the past, so we shall see.

Don't Let Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski Kill You:

Part of the Steelers undoing last season was that they weren't able to handle the talented tight end duo. They need to come out with three linemen, Woodley and Timmons, and six defensive backs, then move Troy in close like he's a linebacker. New England varies how they line up Hernandez and Gronkowski. Sometimes, they'll line up next to the tackles, sometimes they'll split out wide like receivers. Woodley and Timmons need to mirror them and chuck them within five yards of the line, with Troy and the other defensive backs providing support.

Brady doesn't like pressure up the middle, so blitz Troy until it works, then back off. Rinse, repeat.

Tackling was a major issue in last year's game and the Steelers can't afford to have the first guy miss. The Patriots tend to isolate guys so that they just need to break one tackle and start running, which means gang tackling is not going to be an option.

Spreading the linebackers out like this will create some huge natural running lanes, but that's ultimately not an issue, because...

We Don't Need to Make Assurances as if We Were Lawyers:

Brady will see those nice, juicy running lanes and want to take advantage of it. He'll audible to a lot of running plays, especially early. What the Steelers need to do is not freak out when BenJarvis Green-Ellis (The Law Firm) starts getting five or six yards a carry. What they need to remember is that BJGE getting 5.5 yards per rush is better than Brady getting ten yards per pass attempt.

New England has a tendency to try to turn everything into a shootout. The Steelers need to brace for that and stay in the fight.

Be Efficient on Offense and Don't Panic:

At some point, Bill Belichick realized that the NFL changed the rules so drastically that it didn't make sense to try and play defense. From there on, he focused on building a team that could score as many points as possible. The fact that the Patriots are so prolific on offense puts pressure on the other team's defense, but it also puts a great deal of pressure on the other team's offense because they feel as though they need to keep up.

Imagine a party on a Friday night. The New England offense is the Hot Cheerleader and the other offense is the Awkward Girl that ditched the overalls, glasses, and ponytail and decided that she wanted to be pretty. She may be prettier than the Hot Cheerleader and she may make that girl nervous or uneasy, but the hot cheerleader is still a hot cheerleader and everyone knows it. All she needs to do is keep being a hot cheerleader, which is like breathing. She just needs to wait until the Awkward Girl knocks something over or reference Proust and then the Hot Cheerleader has the ball.

What the Awkward Girl needs to do is keep things together until the Hot Cheerleader has too many shots and passes out in the basement. She can't panic, because the Hot Cheerleader can smell fear.

The Steelers can't turn the ball over and they can't try to force what isn't there. They also can't just lean on the run and try to play keep away, since the Patriots are actually very good at defending the run and the Steelers are actually pretty bad at running the ball.

Point blank, New England's pass defense kinda sucks. They're last in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per game. Taking the stance that they've been in the lead all season and teams have been desperately passing the ball in an attempt to catch up isn't valid. They've allowed 8.5 yards per attempt. They have allowed the most completions of 20+ yards, with 37. They just had their bye, which means they allow over six completions of 20+ yards per game. The opportunities will be there. The Steelers don't need to force anything, they just need to make the plays when they're open.

They need to be balanced and efficient on offense. They can't commit dumb penalties. They can't blow assignments. They need to convert on third down. They need to convert in the red zone. They can't turn the ball over. They need to keep rolling with the punches, stay with the Patriots, not flinch, and wait until the Hot Cheerleader passes out in the basement.

And... that's it. That's all they need to do. Easy, right? Please join my social networking site so that I can become a billionaire.

Prediction:
Patriots 31, Steelers 23

Weidman's Picks, Week 8

2011-10-26T18:24:00.000-07:00

Click here to view the current Pick Em Standings (week-by-week and YTD)

Ew. That's all I can say about last week. Those eff'n Ravens really summed it all up with their world-class choke Monday. That was a sure thing - but sure things aren't worth the paper they're written on in this sport. (At least the Saints delivered an epic beating that should make up for all failed picks.) So, all I can do is buck up and hope this week is better.

I have a hole to dig myself out of.

Dolphins at the New York Football Giants
This one is about as close to a sure thing as you can get. The Dolphins suck so bad that they might pull his Chinliness out of retirement, and they're on the road against a playoff-worthy team. Giants walk away with this one.

Jags at Texans
Well, this one should be a gimmie, but...well...talk to the Ravens. I don't think that matters, for a number of reasons. First off, they blew their wad last week. They aren't going to pull an upset two weeks in a row. Second, they're on the road, and that's always good for a hit against a team. Texas keeps it big.

Colts at Titans
Meh. The Titans aren't great, but the Colts are on their way to being a punchline in Detroit's locker room. I think the line might be a bit extreme on them (and it's mainly because of the Colts forgetting to show up last week) but it doesn't change the fact that the Titans are going to win.

Vikings at Panthers
Well, when in doubt, take the home team. Once again, neither team is worth watching, and I've got nothing good to say about the game. Take the Cats.

Saints at Rams
I think that the Saints got a taste for tenderized meat last week and are going to be coming back for a second helping this week. I doubt they're going to nuke it from orbit again, but they aren't going have any trouble.

Cards at hated Ravens
The bird fight of the week. The Cards are hurting from the Steelers beating on them last week, and the Ravens are prepping for their share next week. I think that these facts are going to keep the line closer, so I'd take the points this week. Why? Because the Cards have something to prove, and the Ravens aren't going to risk injuries.

Lions at Broncos
What do you think a lion would do to a horse? That's what's gonna happen. Okay, maybe that's a bit extreme, but the Lions are going to win this one on the road. Plus, Detroit hasn't screwed the pooch yet.

Skins at Bills
I still think that the Skins are better than they look, but they're not really contenders. I still see Bills in the playoffs, and they going to have a nice win at home.

Pats at Steelers
Ugh. This is the prediction that I've been dreading all week. The Steelers are probably going to go 1-2 over the next three weeks, and this isn't going to be the 1. Sure, we're sitting at the top of our division and on pretty equal standing with the Pats - but Brady is, what, 6-1 against us? He also has good tight ends and the Steelers have a blind spot there. Don't bet against Brady. *sigh*

Browns at Niners
Another easy home pick. Niners are just the better team.

Bungles at Seahawks
The Seahawks haven't improved with age this year, and the Bungles are still looking really good. Even though they're on the road, they're still going to win this one. Take Cincy.

Dallas at Philly
Philly is well-rested and ready to go. They've had a rough go of it this season, but coming off a bye at home makes them the pick in this game, especially when the Cowboys have been less than earth-shattering.

Chargers at Chiefs
Give this one to the road team. I know, the Chargers seem to be "meh" of late, but I think they're going to pull this one off by a hair. Granted, it's Halloween and anything can happen.

New York Football Giants over Dolphins
Texans over Jags
Titans over Colts
Panthers over Vikings
Saints over Rams
Hated Ravens over Cards
Lions over Broncos
Bills over Skins
Pats over Steelers
Niners over Browns
Bungles over Seahawks
Philly over Dallas
Chargers over Chiefs

Keller's Picks, Week 8

2011-10-26T13:29:00.000-07:00

Click here to view the current Pick Em Standings (week-by-week and YTD)

Last week was not kind to the kind citizens of Pick Em Land, but this week looks promising. There are fewer swing games and more games that look like they're sure things. I also think that the upsets are going to be easier to sniff out (including our Moneyline of the Week). But, that's just what I think and my opinions aren't worth much, historically.

Having said that, you should totally use all my picks for your pool this week.

Indianapolis at Tennessee:

This is a tougher call than you might think, since everyone knows that the Colts are sucking something awful this year and the Titans at least beat Baltimore. But, both teams got taken to the woodshed last week, so it's not a slam dunk (and maybe it's a bad idea for Vegas to favor the Titans by 9). Still, I think Tennessee has the better quarterback, they're playing at home, and Chris Johnson needs to do something to keep fantasy football players everywhere from showing up at his house with pitchforks and torches.

Jacksonville at Houston:

This one is more of a slam dunk. I know the Jags beat the hated Ravens on Monday Night Football, but that also means a short week. You know who else beat the hated Ravens? The Titans, who got shellacked by the Texans in Week 7.

Minnesota at Carolina:

I'm gonna pick some road teams, I promise. I think the Panthers are starting to put things together and I think they're learning how to limit mistakes and win close games. I think Cam Newton is getting better, which is pretty scary. The only thing that makes me nervous about this game is Adrian Peterson. He seems primed for one of those games where he just destroys everyone and everything. Peterson fills me with doubt, so take the home team.

NOLA at St. Louis:

See? Road team. I was wrong to pick against the Saints to cover last week. These tune-up games are perfect for them. They always win them in impressive fashion.

Arizona at Baltimore:

Joe Flacco struggled last week against Jacksonville. You know what's going to be best for what's ailing him? The crappy Cardinals secondary. Also, I think John Harbaugh has Suggs, Lewis, Ngata, and Reed that Kevin Kolb had group sex with their mothers. This one's gonna be ugly.

Miami at NY Giants:

Giants are finally getting healthy and the Dolphins are still completely terrible at the game of football.

Washington at Buffalo:

Half the guys on the Redskins are on injured reserve and the other half of them are just injured. This team is taking on serious amounts of water and they draw a well-rested Bills team playing at home. Not a good draw. I don't think this game is a blowout, but I think Buffalo wins comfortably and gets back on track.

Detroit at Denver:

I don't buy into Tebowmania and I just read that Matthew Stafford is practicing and should be available on Sunday. Denver and Tebow were barely good enough to beat the completely terrible Dolphins last week. It's gut check time for the Lions, who have the opportunity to gain half a game on the idle Packers. Interesting stat: Tebow was sacked seven times by the completely terrible Dolphins last week. Related sidenote: Detroit's defensive line is very, very good.

New England at Steelers:

Too much Tom Brady, their offensive line is too good, too much Wes Welker, their defense will do just enough to win this game. There are a bunch of reasons why the Patriots will win on Sunday. Check back later this week to find out what the Steelers need to do to win.

Cleveland at San Francisco:

Interesting sidenote: In my one league, I have Aaron Rodgers and he's on bye. A few weeks back, I picked up Alex Smith because I knew he was playing Cleveland this week. I also have Michael Crabtree. I dropped Smith and added Andy Dalton, because I think the Browns pass defense is pretty good. Cleveland needs to celebrate the small victories, because there's no way they're winning this game.

Cincinnati at Seattle:

OK. I can't believe I'm going to type this, but here goes: This prediction hangs on whether or not Tavaris Jackson plays. Jackson was inching his way towards respectability and I think he was very nearly there before he got hurt. I think he can make enough plays to win against a tough Cincy defense. I also think that the Bengals aren't ready to win this game. They're still young, it's a cross-country trip, Seattle plays better at home, and everyone on the Bengals had the bye week to read all about how they're a surprise team that's going to make some noise. Something about Cincinnati's history tells me that they choke this one away just as everyone is starting to believe in them.

Dallas at Philadelphia:

I had this game picked at the beginning of the season. Andy Reid has never lost a game following a bye (regular season only). Don't think about it too much, just follow me blindly.

San Diego at Kansas City:

The Chiefs started out horrible, then lost a bunch of guys, then re-grouped.
Todd Haley has realized that he can't run the same offense he wanted to when the season started and he has adjusted.
The defense is improving.
KC is trending positive, while the Chargers are trending negative.
Norv Turner still coaches the San Diego Chargers.
There is something wrong with Philip Rivers. I think he's hurt pretty badly, but he doesn't want anyone to know.
This game is in Arrowhead Stadium on Monday Night Football. Everyone will be drunk and rowdy by kickoff and the fans will help the Chiefs take this game over.

Line of the Week:

This is a tough one. If the Patriots win, then they'll win by more than a field goal, so take them (-3 at Steelers). The line has already moved a point since Monday, so get on it now because it's only going to keep going up. I have not fully convinced myself that New England is going to win yet and I think the Lions (-3) at Denver is a safer bet. The Broncos suck something awful and Football Jesus isn't going to miracle them to victory this week. If Stafford plays -- and it looks like he is going to -- then they're pretty much a lock to cover.

Moneyline of the Week:

If Tavaris Jackson plays, take the Seahawks (+129) and the money and run. If he doesn't, the Chiefs look mighty attractive at (+171). Double your pleasure (and your money) and bet both!

Over/Under of the Week:

After last week's debacle -- I said to take the Over on Seahawks-Browns and they ended up combining for nine points -- I'm not going to get cute. Take the Under on Seahawks-Bengals. Both teams have consistently hit the under, regardless of opponents. Both teams are solid on defense and not so awesome on offense.

Tennessee over Indianapolis
Houston over Jacksonville
Carolina over Minnesota
NOLA over St. Louis
Baltimore over Arizona
NY Giants over Miami
Buffalo over Washington
Detroit over Denver
New England over Steelers
San Francisco over Cleveland
Seattle over Cincinnati
Philadelphia over Dallas
Kansas City over San Diego

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Steelers West

2011-10-25T15:17:00.000-07:00

Mostly good news this week, since the game wasn't really as close as the score would indicate.

The game wasn't as close as the score would indicate. When it became 32-14 and the Steelers let up. They were more interested in taking time off the clock than stopping the Cardinals. They just wanted to make sure that Larry Fitzgerald didn't do anything crazy and he didn't. I'm not sure if they were just looking to make sure guys didn't get hurt, if they were trying to be good sports against their old coaches, but they let their foot off the gas. Against the 2008 or 2009 Cardinals, that would've been a huge mistake, but it's easy enough to get by the 2011 Cardinals when you build an 18 point lead. No lead is safe against the Patriots or the hated Ravens. If the Steelers manage to get a lead in those games, they should keep building on it until the game is over, if not after.
As trips to the woodshed go, this was a pretty impressive beating. The pass rush got to Kolb, the defense forced a turnover, and the passing game lit it up, with 361 yards through the air and three touchdowns. The Steelers forced a safety. The defensive line looked solid and the linebackers were all over the field -- especially James Farrior, who is looking younger by the week, but still doesn't look young.
Ike Taylor impressed me once again. It wouldn't be accurate to say that he shut Larry Fitzgerald down, but he did keep Fitz from taking over the game like he did in Super Bowl XLIII. Fitzgerald had four catches for 78 yards, but Taylor kept him out of the end zone and won more battles than he lost, even if you include penalty yards, as Fitzgerald was targeted ten times.
I was surprised to discover that the Cardinals had as many sacks as the Steelers, with two. Maybe Ben Roethlisberger handled the pressure significantly better than Kolb. Maybe I've just become accustomed to Roethlisberger taking severe beatings every week and a constant barrage of pressure just looks normal to me. But, in my opinion, I thought the offensive line had another solid game in pass protection.
Arizona had a big weakness in the secondary and the Steelers exploited it. They didn't throw 30 times in the first half, but they did plenty of damage with the shots they did take. These kinds of strategic moves -- and the fact that they made a high percentage of the plays that were available -- bode well for the rest of the season. Sure, they're a team that likes to throw the ball deep regardless of opponent, but they seemed to take more shots against the Cardinals and I was happy to see it. I would also like to mention that the Patriots have a very shaky pass defense.

Light on the bad news and some of it is nitpicky...

Only forced one turnover, which brings them to three on the season. They're getting better at protecting the ball, but it's high time they started forcing their opponents into some bad decisions and mistakes.
Nine penalties, though I think a third of those were on Taylor and at least one of those was ticky-tacky. Still, they can't commit nine penalties against New England and Baltimore and expect to win. Out of the nine penalties committed, three resulted in first downs for Arizona and there were two on the touchdown drive in the second quarter that helped keep that drive alive.
I was also surprised to learn that the Steelers had 93 yards (taking out two kneel-downs by Roethlisberger). I figured the total was more like 60 or 70 yards, since they didn't seem to be in synch all game. Part of the issue was the attacking front seven for Arizona, but a larger part of the problem was that the Steelers weren't blowing up big holes for their backs. I think it's time to let Mendenhall get in there for four or five carries and see how it goes. If the line is pushing people off the ball, keep Rashard in. If they're not opening up holes, then it's time to put in Isaac Redman. Mendenhall averaged 2.5 yards a carry and Redman averaged 4.8. There's no question that Mendenhall is the more talented back, but there's also no question that Redman can do more with less. If there isn't a hole, he puts his head down and pushes ahead for at least a few yards. I don't think Mendenhall should lose his job, he's still their best option, but he's no longer the best option for every situation, so they need to start a committee approach. That also means getting Mewelde Moore involved, which will be covered in further detail in the Patriots preview.
I love that Mike Wallace ended up with 118 yards and a touchdown. But, if you factor in that 95 of those yards came on one catch and that he was targeted seven times, that makes for a pretty inefficient game. I know that Wallace doesn't run a lot of high percentage routes, but they need to do better than three catches on seven targets. That would involve throwing more short passes his way, including some more of those quick slants that seem to have found their way out of the game plan.
I still don't know if the Steelers are good, bad, great, average, or dominant. Right now, they're still miscellaneous. The good news in this bit of bad news is that they've won the games they were supposed to win thus far, so they're a 5-2 enigma instead of a 3-4 or 2-5 enigma. I guess that we can say we'll know more after Sunday's game against the Patriots. I just wish I knew more now.

I'll say that I'm satisfied by Sunday's performance, but I'll also say that I'm still worried.

Catching Up With Old Friends: Steelers at Steelers West Preview

2011-10-21T15:03:00.000-07:00

There was a time when the Arizona Cardinals had about 30 percent former Steelers coaches and players on their team and most of them played major roles. Now, they have Nick Eason, Joey Porter, and Clark Haggans, and most of the overlaps are on the coaching side. They have Whisenhunt and Grimm and they recently hired Ray Horton -- former secondary coach for the Steelers -- to be their defensive coordinator. As a matter of fact, if you go to the Coaches page on the Cardinals website, Horton's head shot still has him wearing a Steelers polo.

Now, you may recall that the Steeler secondary was kind of a weak spot for the team the last... well, decade or so. But, most importantly, it wasn't a dominant unit from when he arrived in 2004 until he left in 2010. Now that he's working with a bunch of young players and a few stragglers -- I was surprised to find that Porter and Haggans were still starting -- the results have not been good. What I'm trying to say is that the Cardinals pass defense sucks.

If you look up the stats, you'll find that they're "only" ranked 20th in passing yardage allowed and that they've kept opposing quarterbacks to some pretty respectable numbers: eight yards per attempt, six touchdowns, four interceptions, an 87.7 quarterback rating. What those stats leave out -- and this is the kind of insider information you'll only find on Steelers N At -- is the fact that they've played Donovan McNabb (benched), Rex Grossman (benched), and Tavaris Jackson (benched). When they've faced quarterbacks that are halfway decent (Cam Newton, Eli Manning), they've gotten crushed. Ben Roethlisberger is better than "halfway decent," so that means the Steelers should throw the ball a lot.

I may be biased because he's on my fantasy team, but I think that Mike Wallace should get a lot of those targets. The Cardinals have already given up 26 passing plays of 20 yards or more and four passing plays of 40 yards or more. They've only played five games, so that means that they've given up about five passes of 20+ yards and one pass play of 40+ yards per game. As a point of comparison, through six games, the Steelers have given up ten pass plays of 20+ yards and zero pass plays of 40+ yards. On offense, they have 21 pass plays of 20+ yards and five of 40+ yards. When the Steelers pass the ball, they throw it a long ways down the field. The Cardinals are vulnerable to that. The best big play threat the Steelers have is Mike Wallace, so they should chuck it deep to him early and often.

They also have Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders, who are two guys with some speed that can catch the deep ball. Hines Ward has been playing better and getting more involved in the offense the last couple of weeks and he will be a factor as well. I know I'm always preaching about how the Steelers need to control the clock and run the ball, but I definitely don't feel that way this week. This week, I think that Roethlisberger should have 30 pass attempts by halftime.

If he drops back 30 times, that means there's a higher risk of him getting sacked. Well, the Cardinals pass rush isn't exactly fearsome and the offensive line has been providing better pass protection of late. I think they're up to the challenge and, if they aren't, they can max protect. I think that three of our guys can still get open against six of theirs. Add in the fact that Horton is a secondary coach by trade and likes to blitz safeties and cornerbacks and you get a well-protected Roethlisberger throwing to explosive receivers against an undermanned and undertalented secondary.

I'm happy that Rashard Mendenhall played better last week and had bigger holes to run through. If Roethlisberger throws the ball 30 times in the first half, the Steelers will probably need Mendenhall in the second half to run the ball and protect the lead. I'm not a huge fan of that strategy, but I've come to accept that it's how the Steelers roll.

On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals don't scare me on offense. It's not just that they have Kevin Kolb at quarterback instead of Kurt Warner. It's that their offensive line lost a lot of veteran leadership and they're not as good as they were in 2008. It's that they also don't have Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston. It's that I honestly believe that Ike Taylor will do a good job covering Larry Fitzgerald. There are two ways the Cardinals can stay in/win this game: 1. Larry goes off or, 2. The Steelers turn the ball over a lot. That's the full list. The only guy on this entire team that really scares me is Larry Fitzgerald.

Beanie Wells is like Rashard Mendenhall, only not as fast. He's a capable back, he's the best guy on the team, but he's not an elite guy. He's not MJD or Arian Foster or Chris Johnson or Ray Rice. He also can't beat you all by himself like those guys can. He can beat you all by himself like Fitzgerald can -- and almost did in Super Bowl XLIII.

I also think that, whatever advantage Whis and Grimm had in terms of familiarity with personnel is now gone. A lot of the same guys still play for the Steelers, but most of them are in new roles and there are more new faces than you'd think. Specifically, Whis never coached Wallace, Sanders, Mendenhall, or 80 percent of the offensive line. Bruce Arians has been running the same scheme for the last hundred years and LeBeau never shows you the same thing twice. This is Mike Tomlin's team now. They were really Bill Cowher's team the last time the Steelers traveled to Arizona in 2007.

If the Cardinals come out with the secondary back and try to guard against the deep ball, throw short. If they press, throw deep. If they blitz, max protect and throw deeper. The Steelers just need to pass early, they need to pass often, and they need to keep passing until they're pretty sure everyone is dead.

If they do that, then my prediction makes sense. If they try to control the clock and impose their will, they still win, just not by as much.

Prediction:
Steelers 34, Steelers West 14

Weidman's Picks, Week 7

2011-10-19T17:14:00.000-07:00

Click here to view the Pick 'Em Standings (week-by-week and YTD).

Well, Keller took defeat so well last week that he's already called me out on Facebook. So that's...great. Let's see if I can repeat history and beat him again this week.

Denver at Miami
Miami is favored by a point this week, mainly 'cause they're at home. Man, this is a tough call. Denver, Simpsons, blah, blah, blah. Both teams suck, Denver just sucks a little less. They're the "smart" call in this game - but do I really think that Miami is gonna go 0-6 to start the season? No. Miami makes a stand and pulls this one off by the skin of their teeth.

Chargers at Jets
Another tough call, and I can feel my weekly pick-ship sinking already. In a reverse of DEN/MIA, these are two good(ish) teams. Chargers are coming off of a bye, and the Jets are 50/50 in ugly games this year. It's going to be close, but I think the Chargers are going home with a win.

Texans at Titans
Which team is Houston bringing? The team that beat us, Miami and Indy - or the team that lost to Oakland, Baltimore and NOLA? They've only won against crap teams (or a good team on a crappy week) and lost to solid ones. That makes it a tough call. The Titans are about as streaky, but their wins have been more convincing. They're at home, coming off a bye and look better.

Falcons at Lions
This one's easier. Detroit's my pick until they royally screw the pooch.

Redskins at Panthers
Warning: Dumb pick ahead. Yes - The Skins had a horrible game last week, they've benched Sexy, the Panthers are at home and favored...but I think this one is still going to the Skins. Panthers aren't that great, and I think that taking some eggs out of the Rexy basket is going to shake things up.

Bears "at" Bucs
Pip-pip, cheerio with a crumpet in the sticky wicket and some such poppycock. Merry old England, where the Bears are favored by a point - as well as a favored pick by a lot of experts. But leave us not forget that it's by one point. Let's look at an important intangible: Josh Freeman. His first NFL game was in London a few years ago and got royally crushed. I think that the drive to banish that ghost will be enough to over-come that one point deficit against the streaky Bears.

Seahawks at Browns
The teams are tied up on the season, but Cleveland is better and at home. Not much more to say about this game.

Steelers at Steelers West
We're favored, that's the good news. Bad news is, Arizona's a long ways away, and a surprising number of experts are picking the Red Ones. I'm not one of them. (A person picking the Cards or an expert.) Steelers win this one.

Chiefs at Raiders
Raiders are looking really good and are at home. Not only that, but they just picked up Palmer. Oakland isn't done making noise this season, and I don't see them dropping one at home this week.

Pack at Vikings
Nothing is worse than a bitter rivalry where one of the teams flat-out stinks like three-day-old vomit on a French Quarter sidewalk in August. I would like to take the remainder of this segment's space to discuss more weighty matters like, "How about the fact that the Power lost 'Total Chaos' Carter to the Predators. Doesn't that suck?" Discuss.

Rams at Cowboys
I mean, really. We have to play the Preds twice in the first 5 games this year - and now we have to face our former pass-rusher? Really? Oh - And Dallas is gonna crush the Rams.

Colts at Saints
Man...I wish I hadn't blown my vomit-in-the-Quarter line above. How about, "the Saints are going to crush them like a team that built its whole offense around one guy who hurt his neck and is missing the season"?

Ravens at Jags
Might as well close out the Wall of Shame section of this post by mentioning how much the Ravens are just going to steamroll the Jags.

Miami over Denver
Chargers over Jets
Titans over Texans
Lions over Falcons
Redskins over Panthers
Bucs over Bears
Browns over Seahawks
Steelers over Steelers West
Raiders over Chiefs
Pack over Vikings
Cowboys over Rams
Saints over Colts
Ravens over Jags

Keller's Picks, Week 7

2011-10-19T13:15:00.000-07:00

Click here to view the Pick 'Em Standings (week-by-week and YTD).

I lost a game off my Pick 'Em lead last week, so I need to buckle down. This is an interesting slate of games, since there are a number that could go either way (what I like to call "swing" games). I've done well in my swing games thus far this season against Weidman, which of course means that he'll either pick all the same winners as me this week. If he doesn't, go with his picks. Just to switch it up.

Chicago at Tampa:

When in doubt, go with the... oh, wait. This game is being played in London, which basically means that the Bucs get screwed out of a home game. My opinion of the Bears changes from week to week, but this week I'm high on them. I think that Mike Martz calls a pretty conservative game, Matt Forte has a pretty big day, and Chicago does just enough on offense and defense to survive across the pond.

Washington at Carolina:

I spent the whole season backing Sexy Rexy, then he turned in a QBERT rating of -15 against the Eagles last week. Now, the John Beck Era begins in Washington. I think Cam Newton's legs make the difference in this game, because pretty much everything else is a wash. Also, Panthers are at home.

San Diego at NY Jets:

Jets have a short week and looked pretty underwhelming against a godawful Dolphins team. Chargers had a bye week to get healthy, which was their biggest issue thus far this season. Considering that they went 4-1 with 14 players on the active roster, I'd say they're a pretty good team.

Seattle at Cleveland:

I really don't want to take the Browns, but they're at home and the Seahawks still have Tavaris Jackson and his 13.2 QBERT rating at quarterback.

Houston at Tennessee:

The Titans have had two weeks to prepare for the Texans and two weeks to think about how bad the Steelers beat them in Week 5. Houston has a pretty ordinary offense without Andre Johnson. They have a pretty ordinary defense without Mario Williams. Ordinary won't get it done against a well-rested Hasselbeck in Nashville.

Denver at Miami:

I mentioned that the Dolphins are godawful, right? Well, they are. I know that the Broncos just traded their best receiver and that they suck pretty bad and they're on the road. But, Miami is 1-10 in their last 11 home games, so I wouldn't give them much of a home field advantage. There is also the emergence of the Football Jesus himself, Tim Tebow. He just wins. He's a competitor. He's a leader. TIM TEBOW'S QBERT IS UNDEFINED BECAUSE HE DIVIDES BY ZERO. Seriously, though, these are two crappy teams. You go with the one that has the player with the most ability and the most upside, which is the Denver Broncos.

Atlanta at Detroit:

The Lions burned me last week, but I'm willing to give them another chance. Because they're at home. And Atlanta is still in the penalty box. And Detroit's defensive line will take this game over because they will destroy Matt Ryan and bottle Michael Turner up.

Kansas City at Oakland:

Carson Palmer on three days of practice... or KC? That's a tough call. When in doubt, take the home team. Also, I carefully devised this equation:

Playing for Dead Owner + Rallying Around New Quarterback + At Home > Kansas City Chiefs

If this game were at Arrowhead or if somehow managed to die again, then I would take the Chiefs. I can't believe I keep backing the Raiders even though, up until about a week ago, I actually thought their head coach's name was Huey Lewis.

Steelers at Steelers West:

I know their defensive coordinators used to coach our defensive backs. I know Whis and Grimm are still there. I know they have a lot of former Steelers. I know they're tough at home. I also know that their secondary sucks, Beanie Wells can't get out of his own way, and Kevin Kolb is only a slight upgrade over Max Hall.

St. Louis at Dallas:

The Rams will break out of this funk at some point. Brandon Lloyd will help. Sam Bradford getting healthy will help. Playing the NFC West will help. Unfortunately, the Cowboys are fired up this week, they're at home, and they're a way better team than St. Louis.

Green Bay at Minnesota:

Do... do we really need an explanation on this one? If I had picked the Vikings, would you have been like, "Oh, hey, well if Keller thinks they're gonna win, then yeah." If so, I'm flattered. I'm also a little ashamed.

Indianapolis at NOLA:

The Saints aren't the rolling juggernaut they once appeared to be, but they're plenty good enough to beat the Colts.

Baltimore at Jacksonville:

See: Pick, Green Bay at Minnesota.

Line of the Week:

Indianapolis (+14) at NOLA. The Saints are much better than the Colts and they will win this game. But, two touchdowns? And that's a push? The New Orleans defense is too shaky to blow anyone out that bad.

Moneyline of the Week:

Denver (+112) at Miami. Tebow can divide by zero. Also, Miami sucks real bad and they've lost 10 of their last 11 at home.

Over/Under of the Week:

Seattle at Cleveland (41, OVER). Two mediocre defenses and it's October, so it's not like there will be three feet of snow. Three feet of snow is the only thing that will keep this at the under.

Chicago over Tampa
Carolina over Washington
San Diego over NY Jets
Cleveland over Seattle
Tennessee over Houston
Denver over Miami
Detroit over Atlanta
Oakland over Kansas City
Steelers over Steelers West
Dallas over St. Louis
Green Bay over Minnesota
NOLA over Indianapolis
Baltimore over Jacksonville

Good News and Bad News: Steelers vs Jaguars

2011-10-19T08:44:00.000-07:00

I tried to get started on writing this a number of times yesterday and really couldn't come up with an angle. It's basically the same story as it was against the Seahawks and the Colts: The Steelers won, they did some things well, but it's not as though there was any catharsis behind the victory. Week 5 against the Titans was a catharsis game. They took out all the frustration and anxiety of the season out on an opponent that thought they had a chance to win, but didn't know what hit them.

Unlike most situations, you root for the bully when they're your team. It's a guilty pleasure, because everyone still gets paid regardless of the outcome, you just hope no one gets seriously injured. If your team beats another team senseless, there's a sense of satisfaction and relief. You're satisfied that you follow a good team and you're relieved that there isn't a fourth quarter/Hail Mary situation like we had on Sunday. When you expect your team to crush the other team, you're unsatisfied and worried if they don't. I would say that I'm dissatisfied with Sunday's performance, but I'm not worried.

The Jaguars are a young team and they'll improve. One of the steps toward improvement is not giving up. They didn't give up in the second half and everyone was pretty much expecting them to. I think the second half was more a result of improved effort and execution by Jacksonville than the Steelers slacking off, not being a good team, or not executing properly. Ben Roethlisberger was off all game, it's just that it was windy in the second half, so that made it look like he took a nosedive. There were plays to be made, the Steelers just didn't make all of them. What they did do is make enough plays to win, which is sufficient, even if it's not satisfying.

I'm not worried because the plays were there. Those plays only need to be made eventually and consistently, not every time. If a team hit every big play that was available to them, they'd be unstoppable. I'm not looking for unstoppable, I'm looking for great. Great means making more plays than you miss. Roethlisberger may have another "off" game this season, but he won't be this far off very often. And, even though he was off, he still managed 8.7 yards per attempt and 16.7 yards per completion, and I will take that.

I'm not worried because I'm actually starting to believe that the offensive line will come together and be a good unit. That's provided they have the same five guys in the starting line-up for consecutive weeks, which hasn't happened yet. The good news is that they've played fairly well the past few games even though there have been a lot of injuries. I think the pass protection continues to be consistent and the running game continues to improve. As he showed, Rashard Mendenhall can do a lot of damage if there's solid blocking in front of him. He's their best option. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer wouldn't have scored a touchdown in the first quarter with the same blocking. They would've gotten stopped at the one or two yard line and I think we all know how dicey things have been for the Steelers inside the five the past few years.

I'm not worried because William Gay and Ike Taylor have been playing quite well. Ryan Clark has stepped up his game. Troy Polamalu has been much more controlled the past two games, but he hasn't lost any of his explosiveness. More importantly, he passed concussion tests this week, so he should be available for Steelers West. Brett Keisel made a triumphant return to the line-up. LaMarr Woodley is playing out of his mind, which makes up for the fact that James Harrison is out. Farrior and Timmons are much improved, though Timmons looks like he still has room to improve.

The only thing that concerns me is turnovers. They've done a better job of protecting the ball the past couple of weeks, but they're still not taking it away. Forcing two turnovers in six games is not getting it done. As I've mentioned before, turnovers can be the result of tipped passed and lucky bounces, but you also make your own luck. That's why they call it forcing turnovers.

But, they're also 4-2 after six games and only half a game behind the hated Ravens for the division lead. Now is not the time to panic. There will be plenty of time for that later.

Containing MJD: Steelers vs. Jaguars Preview

2011-10-14T13:38:00.000-07:00

I originally thought about calling this post, "No Time for Love, Dr. Jones," but then I thought I'd need to add the hyphen and the "Drew" and then would anyone get the joke, and... well, I decided to leave all the 80s movies reference in the post itself and leave them out of the name. I only have one more, anyway, so it's not like I could develop a theme.

The post's name says it all: Stop Maurice Jones-Drew and you stop the Jacksonville offense. I don't think the Steelers need to bottle him up like they did against Chris Johnson last week -- although that would be nice -- since I think they can still win the game even if he gets 100 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars are about as talented as the Colts, but the primary differences are that their running back is better, their quarterback is younger, they don't have two all-star pass rushers, and they're not playing at home. Indianapolis almost beat the Steelers because Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, and the home crowd took over the game. But, the key word there is almost, seeing as how the Steelers won that game and all. If MJD stays under 125 yards and only scores one touchdown, then he will be more than contained enough and the Steelers will win a close game. If MJD gets taken out of the game plan -- either because he's averaging two yards a carry or the Steelers have a two touchdown lead in the second half -- then the Steelers will win like they did against the Titans last week.

Blaine "That's a Major Appliance, That's Not a Name" Gabbert is not as good as Matt Hasselbeck. Jacksonville went from David Garrard to Luke McCown to Gabbert and they got worse each time. But, sucking it up and going to the rookie quarterback is like giving dry birth to a porcupine; it's rough and it's painful, but it's gotta be done sometime. Mike Thomas is not as talented as Nate Washington. Ike Taylor was able to handle Reggie Wayne, Lee Evans, and did well against Andre Johnson, so he can more than handle Thomas. The trouble for the Jaguars is that Thomas has almost twice as many targets as any other pass catcher on the team, so Gabbert might throw the ball at him even if he's covered. That could mean that the Steelers could finally record their second interception of the season, which would make this a banner day.

Tight end Marcedes Lewis has only eight catches and 16 targets on the season and MJD has only been targeted 11 times as a receiver. If Gabbert looks at those guys a little more, then Jacksonville will get something out of the pass offense, but it won't be enough.

In order to stop MJD, you need to do a lot of the things that the Steelers did against CJ last week. Sound tackling, gap discipline, backside contain, excellent pursuit. But, you also need to bear in mind that he's a lot harder to tackle than anyone that usually carries a football. He's already short and he tends to run with a lower pad level than someone his height. At some point, he figured out that defenses would stop trying to tackle his legs and hips because they're so well-developed. That means that people who are trying to tackle him concentrate on his torso/head/shoulders area. As a result, MJD makes a lot of moves and jukes with his torso and leads in a given direction with his shoulders, when really it's his legs that control where he's headed. No one notices what he's doing with his legs because they're trying to tackle his shoulders. The tackler lunges the wrong way and MJD is off to the races.

Then there's the fact that he's short, powerful, and runs with a very low pad level. That means that, even if you managed to get your hands on him, you're probably going for a two yard ride. So, the secret is to focus on his feet, don't let him get low, and put someone in front of him that will make him want to juke. While he's juking, two dudes have to come in and tackle him. He's also a very patient runner, which means that stretching the play out and pushing him to the sidelines cuts out some of his options and makes it easier to push him out of bounds. Basically, if the Steelers can accomplish the same gap-shooting, gang tackling effort that they produced on defense last week, they can have similar -- and even better -- results against MJD.

Jacksonville's two best defensive linemen are defensive tackles -- Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton -- who are better at stopping the run than they are rushing the passer. They signed Aaron Kampman in the offseason, but he's been banged up and isn't enough of threat to single-handedly kill Ben Roethlisberger. They don't have enough of a pass rush to get to him enough to make him do something stupid. Or, at least not frequently enough that he makes as many mistakes as he did against the hated Ravens, and therefore costs the Steelers the game. This means that Roethlisberger should have enough time to throw and his likelihood of getting murdered is quite low. When he has time to throw, he's incredibly effective.

The only real way the Jaguars can get in his face is by blitzing him a lot. By a lot, I mean rushing six or more guys regularly. If they blitz Roethlisberger, he will destroy them. So, here's to hoping they blitz Roethlisberger.

Rasean Mathis will probably cover Mike Wallace. Mathis is a good player and has had success against the Steelers in the past, but he's not fast enough to cover Wallace and he's too aggressive, which means he'll take chances that he won't be able to compensate for. He'll probably start the game playing with a 7-10 yard cushion on Wallace, which leaves him open to those quick slants that the Steelers like to throw. If they throw enough of them, Mathis will start to creep in. At that point, fake the quick slant and have Wallace streak up the field. They can also try this with Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. Hines Ward made his triumphant return to relevance last week and he'll be covered by Derek Cox. Derek Cox is not a very good player, so Ward might get some more looks in the red zone. The Jacksonville safeties are underrated and pretty versatile, but I think this defense is on the short end of too many match-ups for the safeties to swing the game.

Unless the Steelers commit seven turnovers again or allow MJD to gash them for 150 or more yards, I don't think the Jaguars win this game. But, I think that Jacksonville will hang in there enough and get get MJD close enough to 150 yards that they'll make it interesting. I also think the fact that their run defense is pretty stout and that the Steelers will still try to run at it -- even if they're not successful -- means that this game stays relatively close. The Steelers won't cover, is I guess what I'm trying to say.

Prediction:
Steelers 24, Jaguars 14

Weidman's Picks, Week 6

2011-10-13T05:52:00.000-07:00

Click here to view the current standings (week-by-week and YTD)

Keller and I tied last week at 9-4, but it really should have been a higher tie. A few teams came from behind and pulled off upsets that shouldn't have happened. But hey, thems the breaks, right? Now, on to week six.

Buffalo at Giants
Okay, Giants are at home and favored (probably because of it), but the Bills are going to pull it off.

Colts at Bungles
Did you ever thing you'd see the day where the Bungles are the easy pick over the Colts? I sure didn't. But I also didn't think that I'd have gone months without seeing Peyton hawking TVs and credit cards, but there you have it.

Jags at Steelers
I realize that Keller has no faith in the Steelers this season - I mean, he picked the Titans last week - but this is another easy call. Steelers are at home, the Jags suck this year and we're gonna see a W this weekend.

Eagles at Redskins
Sometimes I don't know what Vegas is thinking. Eagles haven't shown anything of value overall this season, Washington's at home and Sexy Rexy has only dropped one game this season - yet somehow, The Dream Team is favored. This one is going to the Redskins.

Niners at Detroit
It's a topsy-turvy world that makes my first tough call of the week be "who's gonna win, Niners or Detroit." Okay, it wasn't that hard - I think the Lions are going to win at least one more week.

Rams at Pack
If you're reading my blog post to make your decision on this game...I don't know what to tell you. Maybe pick 'ems aren't for you.

Panthers at Falcons
Not much good to say about either team. If anything, the Falcons are a hair better and are at home. Take the home team.

Browns at Raiders
I hate, hate, hate the term, "they're better than their record," but...the Raiders are better than their record. The Browns are...the Browns. I'm also sure that the Raiders are still going to riding a high of winning one for the Gipper (Davis), so I see them pulling it off.

Texans at Ravens
I know I've picked a lot of home teams this week, and I promise that I'm not being lazy, but I need to pick them again. These are the two teams that trounced us this year, and they're both very, very good. However, the Ravens are better.

Saints at Bucs
See? Not the home team. Not to belittle the Bucs, but the Saints are still a Super Bowl-worthy team and the Bucs aren't right now.

Cowboys at Pats
Aaaaaaand, back to form. Home team is going to win here, because it's Brady. And he's at home. And the Cowboys are pretty 'meh.' It's going to be a win for New England, not by a little bit.

Vikings at Bears
As I've said, the Bears have looked shaky best this year, but the Vikings have looked far, far worse. Sure, they're coming off a big win last week, but...they're still the Vikings.

Dolphins at Jets
Might as well finish the home-team love strong and go with the Jets here. They're angry about losing last week to the Pats, and now that they're home and playing cream-puffs, I figure they're going to work out some frustrations.

Buffalo over Giants
Bungles over Colts
Steelers over Jags
Redskins over Eagles
Detroit over Niners
Pack over Rams
Falcons over Panthers
Raiders over Browns
Ravens over Texans
Saints over Bucs
Pats over Cowboys
Bears over Vikings
Jets over Dolphins

Keller's Picks, Week 6

2011-10-12T14:01:00.000-07:00

Click here to view the current standings (week-by-week and YTD)

Well, continuing to bet against the Dream Team worked out. I am going to keep riding their losing streak until they prove they can win. I also picked the Giants to beat the Seahawks in my Survivor Pool, so I'm eliminated from that. That just gives me more time to continue my Steelers N At Pick Em Domination.

St. Louis at Green Bay:

The Packers are an unstoppable force, the Rams are a moveable object. This one is probably going to get ugly. Since that's my prediction, I think that means that you shouldn't take the Packers if you're still alive in your Survivor Pool.

Jacksonville at Steelers:

If the Steelers play like they did in Week 5 against the Titans, this one could get ugly. If they play like they did against Indy and Seattle, then they still win (and possibly cover). Ben Roethlisberger saw his QBERT rating jump to 93.4. Blaine Gabbert's rating has seen considerable improvement in the past few weeks, but he started at 8.7, so...

Philadelphia at Washington:

Same script as last week: Eagles have one win, opponent has one loss and is at home, yet Philly is somehow favored in this game. I'm still not 100% sold on Washington, but I'm 100% sold on picking against the Eagles. I know the Dream Team will eventually prove me wrong, but I don't think it's this week. At least I hope it's not this week.

San Francisco at Detroit:

I'm sold on the 49ers, but I'm also sold on the Lions. The game is in Detroit and Matthew Stafford and company really look like they want to prove they're for real. A 6-0 start would go a long way towards proving that. If the 9ers win, they will suddenly show up on the radar of a whole lot of people.

Carolina at Atlanta:

After weeks of trying and failing, the Panthers finally complete an upset. Sure, they're 1-4, but they've been competitive in all their games, which is more than you can say for the Falcons. Atlanta's pass defense and pass rush have been suspect and they won't be able to win a shoot out if Julio Jones can't play.

Indianapolis at Cincinnati:

The Curtis Painter Experiment is showing signs of improvement, but he hasn't faced a defense as good as the Bengals. I can't believe I just typed that. Also, Cincy would have a decent shot at the playoffs with a strong defense, AJ Green, and a weak schedule, if only they didn't have an uncoordinated ginger at quarterback. Can't believe I just type that, either. I think I should move on.

Buffalo at NY Giants:

I think I may be channeling my anger at the Giants because of the Survivor Pool thing and that is affecting my judgment. But, I can't shake the feeling that the Bills have enough on offense to outscore the Giants. I don't have enough doubt in my heart to pick the home team.

Houston at Baltimore:

I don't doubt that the hated Ravens will win this game. I hate to say it, but they have a great team and they're tough at home. They're also 3-0 in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era coming off a bye week. Houston will probably be without Andre Johnson and Mario Williams. But, I can't shake the feeling that they'll come out strong in the first half, build a lead, and finally run out of gas in the fourth quarter.

Cleveland at Oakland:

I'm going to stop picking against the Raiders as soon as they stop dedicating games to the memory of Al Davis. They have a special kind of motivation right now and that makes them especially dangerous. Plus which, they're at home and they're playing the Browns.

Dallas at New England:

Tom Brady has won 30 consecutive (regular season) games at home. Not betting against that. Then there's the fact that the Patriots are a way better team than the Cowboys, Dallas has a shaky pass defense, and Tom Brady has won 30 consecutive (regular season) games at home.

New Orleans at Tampa:

The Bucs got humiliated by the Niners on the road last week and Josh Freeman is incredibly competitive. And they're at home. These things make them very dangerous. They do not, however, make them dangerous enough to beat Drew Brees and a very talented Saints team.

Minnesota at Chicago:

The Vikings looked good last week and the Bears looked... not so good... on Monday night. But, the Bears were playing the Lions on the road and the Vikings were playing Steelers West at home. The game is in Chicago and I think the Bears play just well enough to start the Christian Ponder era in Minnesota.

Miami at NY Jets:

I know the Jets are a mess, but the Dolphins are a bigger mess. New York showed just enough fight against the Patriots to make me believe that they're not a total pile of crap. That's not a glowing endorsement of them, but it's good enough to pick them to beat Miami.

Line of the Week:

Oakland (-6.5) over Cleveland. The Raiders are at home and will still be playing for their dear, departed owner. Also, they're playing the Browns. They'll cover.

Moneyline of the Week:

Carolina (+166) over Atlanta. The Upset Special. Cam Newton is superhuman and the Falcons have proven themselves to be very, very human. I don't care that the game is at home. They could play in Matt Ryan's basement and the Panthers would still win.

Over/Under of the Week:

Rams at Packers (47.5), OVER. Green Bay might break the Over all by themselves. Throw in a suspect Packers pass defense and a well-rested Rams offense and this looks like a safe bet.

Green Bay over St. Louis
Steelers over Jacksonville
Washington over Philadelphia
Detroit over San Francisco
Carolina over Atlanta
Buffalo over NY Giants
Baltimore over Houston
Oakland over Cleveland
New England over Dallas
NOLA over Tampa
Chicago over Minnesota
NY Jets over Miami

Good News and Bad News: Steelers vs. Titans

2011-10-11T17:09:00.000-07:00

Mostly good news, since this was a pretty sound ba-thwumping by the home team...

It's time for a shout out to special teams. I realize that they had a punt blocked and that sucks. But, they also have a dangerous return game for the first time since the first coming of Randle-El and it got to the point where the Titans were actually kicking out of bounds to avoid putting the ball in the hands of Antonio Brown. That's the first time that's happened since... can't remember it ever happening. Maybe their punter just sucks? Nah, I think it's Brown. Yes, they also botched an onside kick, but it was a surprise onside kick. You know who else botched a surprise onside? The Colts. And the Cowboys. Both in the Super Bowl. A team falls for that trick once a year, maximum. It's for the best that it happened in Week 5. Having said that, I think the Steelers wasted their lone successful fake punt attempt for the season. But, I also think that it was worth it. Once they converted and scored, the game was in their hands.
Huge shout out to Max Starks and a lesser one for Ramon Foster. Marcus Gilbert is questionable for next week after re-aggravating his shoulder injury, but I like the current combination of guys with Scott at right tackle and Starks at left tackle. Now, Starks and I have had our differences, but he played a great game. If he can keep that up, I may start liking him again. He is also now available to tutor Gilbert on how to play right tackle for the Steelers after playing left tackle for the Florida Gators. That's a unique blend of experiences that Starks has that will help Gilbert out considerably. He can tell Gilbert what he did wrong, more importantly what he did wrong, and most importantly, what he learned. In the meantime, he'll hopefully keep doing a great job of protecting Ben Roethlisberger's blind side and blocking in the run game.
Speaking of the running game, the offensive line opened up some huge holes against a talented front seven. Think about that before you add Jonathan Dwyer to your fantasy team. With the hole he had, Mike Tomlin could've gained 30 yards on that play, Rashard Mendenhall would've scored, and Willie Parker (present day) would've gotten about as much as Dwyer. Maybe it was the two practices in pads. Maybe it was the desperation of the moment. Maybe the Steelers just wanted hacks like me to shut up for two seconds. Whatever it was, it worked, so I hope it continues.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: Roethlisberger may be a womanizer and an alleged rapist, but he's an exceptional quarterback. If he gets that much time every week, he will have similar results. He's know for his ability to break tackles and keep the play alive, but he's definitely most effective when he can take the snap, scan the field, and make a decision without someone in his face.
Efficiency in the red zone, with four conversions on five attempts.
The defensive line was attacking the line of scrimmage and the linebackers were swarming to the ball. That was what we were looking for all season. So... hey, Steelers. You're soft and you're going to get tossed around like a bunch of school girls against Jacksonville. You want to prove that I'm wrong? Show me I'm wrong.
Tackling was much improved as well. Guys were in their lanes, took good angles in pursuit, and didn't over commit, especially Troy Polamalu.
Great games by the replacements on the defensive line. Cameron Heyward is looking better and better, Ziggy Hood atoned for some spotty play in the first quarter of the season, and Chris Hoke was especially disruptive and active, pushing plays back and chasing Chris Johnson down.
LaMarr Woodley needed to step up with Harrison out of the lineup and he did. Well done.

Now for the bad news:

Woodley was credited with the Steelers first interception of the season. It was the second turnover forced by the defense this season. It's Week 5. Luck is a component of turnovers, but you also make your own luck. Hopefully, they'll be able to trick Blaine Gabbert into making some mistakes when the Jaguars come to town.
Roethlisberger really should have spiked that ball at the end of the first half. You're either 100% sure that everyone is on the same page and throw the ball, or you're less than 100% sure and you spike the ball. Looking at the replay, I can't believe he was 100% sure.
Issac Redman had the same blocking as Dwyer and averaged 3.3 yards per attempt. If you take out the 76-yarder, then Dwyer's average drops to 3.1, but he was also in there when the Titans were stacking the box and two yards a carry would've been considered a victory. Regardless, it's also not time to add Redman to your fantasy team. The Steelers need to get Mendenhall back. With the kinds of holes the offensive line was creating, Mendenhall would've had a huge day.

Aside from how well Starks played on three days of practice, the big news was that that Steelers finally executed the kind of game we wanted to see from them against the Seahawks and the Colts. Yes, it would've been nice for them to win all five games of the season thus far by a margin of 38-17, but I know I was definitely looking for them to beat someone down. That's exactly what they did to the Titans on Sunday.

Tennessee has a lot of talent along both the offensive and defensive line. They are a tough team. The Steelers bullied them and beat them until they didn't want to get up any more. Was it the two practices in pads? If so, they're screwed, as Tomlin used up two of the precious few padded practices he has available to him for the rest of the season. I would think that the message was sent and that the Steelers like the feeling of beating on a team until they don't want to get up. I would also think that a physical, veteran group like this wouldn't need to practice in pads to get used to -- and expect and enjoy -- contact.

Hopefully, last week's practices were enough. I guess we'll find out when the Jaguars come to town.

Remembering Al Davis

2011-10-08T11:54:00.000-07:00

I have to say this right from the start: I never liked Al Davis. He was a polarizing figure and you either loved him or you hated him. Since I was too young to get fully involved in the great Steelers-Raiders rivalry of the 70s, I held onto that hate to make up for lost time. From there, Davis made it easy for me, moving the Raiders from Oakland to LA as it suited him, having feuds with the NFL commissioner, and making head-scratching football decision after head-scratching football decision in his twilight years.

I never liked him, but I always respected him. I was aware of the fact that he was a leader and a pioneer. I knew that he should be -- but usually wasn't -- mentioned in the same breath as other owner royalty with the Rooneys, the Maras, and the Hunts. For the past 15 years or so, though, he was viewed as a crazy, irrational old man that acted impulsively and usually only in his best interests. He was a charicture in sunglasses and ugly track suits that watched over his crooked, failing empire from the owner's box.

I've taken my fair share of cheap shots at him over the years because he made it so easy and I was lazy. I wanted to extract every last pound of flesh from my imagined rival as I could before it was too late. Now it's too late and I'm sorry.

Davis took a fledgling AFL and a young Raider team and dragged it to prominence with him, through balls and ambition. The last decade of ineptitude in Oakland has made it easy to forget all the great players that have worn the Silver and Black. With savvy business decisions and more savvy football decisions, he presided over one of the most successful franchises in NFL history. When the 1970 merger came along, he was leading the charge to expand football in America. He was there alongside the Hunts, Rooneys, and Maras during the labor issues of the 80s and early 90s, trying to ensure a future for the League he helped build while watching out for the best interests of the team he loved so dearly.

Yes, he sued the commissioner. Yes, he had contentious relationships with both Pete Rozelle and Paul Taglibue. Yes, he screwed over Los Angeles and Oakland in different ways with questionable leases. Yes, he abstained from the last Collective Bargaining Agreement vote. It could be that his brain realized that his body was betraying him and he didn't want to make such an important decision in his condition. We'll probably never know. But, the fact remains that he was instrumental in making the NFL what it is today. The fact remains that the young league probably couldn't have made it as far as it has and become as successful as it has without him.

That is how I think Al Davis should be remembered: As a pioneer and a personality. As a successful businessman and a thoroughly engaged owner of one of the league's most successful franchises. And, now that he has passed, I think that's how he will be remembered. I think Davis is on a short list of people whose death helped restore their legacy. That list, in my mind, includes: Elvis, Michael Jackson, Richard Nixon, and Al Davis.

Jackson wasn't all child molester jokes and eccentric shopping sprees, he was an amazingly gifted musician and entertainer. Same with Elvis, but substitute drug-fueled insanity. Nixon wasn't just Watergate and Kent State. Davis wasn't just track suits and lawsuits. All of these men were talented, influential, and controversial and they changed their world significantly.

I heard the news this morning when I got an e-mail notification from the Wall Street Journal. It said, "Raiders Owner Al Davis, Football Pioneer, Dies." That's how it should be.

When I texted my brother to tell him the news, he texted back, "Just when the Raiders were turning around." But, as the back of the Raiders media guide says, "The greatness of the Raiders will continue in its future."

Pittsburgh Power 2012 Update

2011-10-06T19:17:00.000-07:00

Hey, it's never too early to be thinking about the Power's next season. Well, for me anyway. Either way, I wanted to give a bit of a State of the Arena Union update now that the 2012 schedule has been announced. That, coupled with some big changes around the league, make for some exciting news.

Here's the schedule, according to the Power website:

3/9 @Orlando Predators (NFL Network)

3/23 Philadelphia Soul (NFL Network)

3/29 @Milwaukee Mustangs

4/6 Iowa Barnstormers

4/14 Orlando Predators

4/20 @New Orleans VooDoo

4/28 Cleveland Gladiators

5/5 Georgia Force

5/12 @San Antonio Talons

5/19 Kansas City Command

6/3 @Arizona Rattlers

6/8 @Cleveland Gladiators (NFL Network)

6/16 Milwaukee Mustangs

6/24 @Philadelphia Soul

6/30 @Iowa Barnstormers

7/7 Tampa Bay Storm

7/14 @Georgia Force

7/20 Jacksonville Sharks (NFL Network)

Oooooookay! There's a lot to cover here, but I'll get to the schedule in a moment. First, I'd like to talk about the team itself. The Power is shaping up in exciting ways already, and they're still recruiting for the season. As things stand right now, QB Morris is out, whereas "Joystick" Washington, "Powertool" Dewalt, Anthony DeGrate and back-up QB Bill Stull have all been resigned. Washington and DeWalt are both key, as they were our star play-makers last year, and I was very concerned that we were going to lose one or both of them to other teams - or leagues.

What about the quarterback situation? That's the big question. Last season, we had four players fill that position, and Morris was the best of them - and that's not saying much. Coach Siegfried has stressed that consistency at this position is a major goal for this season, and he's committed to that in a big way. First off, as mentioned above, Bill Stull is back. He looked good in the one game he played for us last year, and I think that he'll make a solid backup. The big news is our starter.

The Power has stolen big shot Kyle Rowley away from the Spokane Shock, and I couldn't be more excited. In 2008, he was the offensive player of the year, and in 2010, he lead the Shock to an Arena Bowl win and took home the MVP title. This is huge. He's a great player, has a lot of experience and already has an Arena Bowl victory under his belt. Morris was never an Arena QB by the shear fact that he lacked experience. Games were lost because of this inexperience and lack of confidence. Having a true veteran behind center could be that one drop that makes the whole solution gel.

My concerns right now are people who haven't been confirmed for next season. No word yet on defensive stand-outs Josh Lay, Terrance "Total Chaos" Carter or Gary "Da Bully" Butler. It's no secret that our defense struggled at times last year, but these guys are all dynamic players with a lot to offer, and I think that they'd come back with a renewed focus and united force. Now, if we can't get them all, then I'd hope they get prioritized in the order I put them here.

So, how about the season? There are some theories that I can put forth, but a lot is still up in the air. Keller commented to me the other day that he doesn't like the year-to-year contracts in the league, as it makes it hard to hate on the same people long-term. Now, he has a point, but I like the fact that anything can happen any season. This year will be no exception.

It's obvious that Pittsburgh already has a following that the league recognizes as they have a whopping four games on the NFL Network this year - with two of them being in the first three weeks. I talked at length last season of the home team embracing that we've given them, and it seems that others are noticing.

Last year, the league took it easy on this expansion team's early season, but that is not the case this year. First of all, we need to face the Preds twice in the first five games, and that's not good at all. After parting ways with Coach O'Hara at the end of the season, they've aggressively started pursuing top talent. Given that they have the consistently largest fanbase in the league, that shouldn't be difficult. Also, they resigned TT Toliver. Nuff Said.

Things are going to be turned on their head in our division as well. The only good news is that Kurt Rocco has left the hated Gladiators to see if he can help turn the Voodoo around - under Coach O'Hara down in New Orleans, where the Arena Bowl will be played this year. We still have to play them, but only once - and that's good, because they might actually be something to watch this year...from a distance.

While we picked up Rowley, Philly answered with "Dirty" Dan Raudabaugh (Yes, I'm gonna push the nickname 'til it sticks) from the Dallas Vigilantes. If you remember, we only beat Dallas by one point last year, and they went to the playoffs. Now we have to play him twice this season, and that's not good.

The Milwaukee and Cleveland camps have been comparatively quiet thus far, but it's still early. The Mustangs aren't historically great, so until something changes, I'm not going to worry too much. Right now, Cleveland is less scary than Philly, but they're officially a bitter rival and both teams are always going to get it up for each other.

Other things of note are the Barnstormers, Rattlers and Sharks. The Ratts went to the Arena Bowl last year, have won several before and will always be dangerous. I'm not looking forward to getting whooped on by them again. The Barnstormers were middling last year, but now they have Coach Ho, formerly of Philly and Chicago. He's a better coach than Philly showed last year, and I think he can make a dangerous team out of Iowa - and we have to play them twice.

Finally, we end the season against the defending champs, the Jacksonville Sharks. On the up side, they won't have Garcia anymore. He's decided to play one more season, but not with the Sharks. He wants to coach, so he'd like to play somewhere he can hope to lead in future years. (He will be offered a chance at a one-day contract to retire a Shark.) I think that this is a great move for him. Few can challenge his experience, and he'll be a great asset. Unlike the Favres of the world, he's coming back for "just one more" for the right reasons that shouldn't tarnish his legacy if it goes sideways.

****Update****

It looks like the San Antonio Talons picked up Garcia and Robert Quiroga (formerly of the Predators.) This, coupled with a flurry of other signings they've made this month means that we're going to have a really tough game in May.

*****

On the down side with the Sharks, they've signed Florida State star Chris Leak to augment former Steeler hopeful, Omar Jacobs (remember him?) Whether either one of them will measure up to Garcia is yet to be seen, but it's a scary combo.

So, that's the run-down. A lot of news about the upcoming season has already come out, but there's still a lot more to come. There's still a long time (and a lot of NFL action) to go before March, and a lot can still happen. More details to come when I have them.

Go Power, Go Pens and Go Steelers!

Please Don't Let CJ Murder Us: Steelers vs. Titans Preview

2011-10-06T13:32:00.000-07:00

My analysis for Sunday's game against Tennessee basically comes down to the title of this post. Chris Johnson is a game-murdering death stick on two legs. If you thought the Steeler defense looked slow and old against Ray Rice and Arian Foster, then they are going to look like a bunch of 90 year old women with two arthritic hips against Johnson.

Since Aaron Smith and Casey Hampton didn't practice today and James Harrison has been ruled out, that means that, with Jason Worilds also out, Larry Foote is going to be playing Lawrence Timmons' position and Timmons is going to be replacing Harrison. Two guys hurt, two guys playing out of position. On a defense that has already had issues stopping the run. I like Chris Hoke. I like Ziggy Hood. I'm glad that Keisel is going to be back. They all represent speed upgrades on defense. But, against Johnson, you're still talking about a bunch of turtles on Red Bull as opposed to a bunch of regular turtles.

Johnson has taken a while to get back up to speed after his holdout, but he gained 101 yards on 23 carries against Cleveland last week and says that he now feels comfortable with the new blocking schemes and linemen in front of him. That is incredibly bad news for the Steelers. If this were 2004-2010, I would say that the best course of action would be to line up and have the Titans try their best. Historically, it's been impossible to run on the Steelers, which would mean the game would be be put in Matt Hasselbeck's hands. Historically, I would really like the odds in that situation.

But, this ain't history. This is 2011.

First of all, the Titans went 2-1 while Johnson was struggling and Elizabeth Hasselbeck's Husband's Brother (henceforth EHHB, because I'm tired of spelling the word Hasselbeck) stepped up in a big way. He's completing almost 67 percent of his passes and has eight touchdowns and three interceptions. He hasn't been a turnover machine like Roethlisberger. He's been efficient and pretty explosive, averaging 8.7 yards per attempt (which is better than Roethlisberger is averaging).

So, you have EHHB and CJ, which is a lethal combination. The Titans gave up 350 passing yards last week to a pretty pedestrian Browns pass offense, but they also limited a pretty good running team to 3.8 yards per carry. Colt McCoy was sacked only four times in 65 dropbacks, but Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach are slightly better than Jonathan Scott/Max Starks and Chris Kemoeatu/Doug Legursky. If Ben Roethlisberger and his gammy left foot drop back to pass 65 times on Sunday, he will be sacked more than four times.

Oh, yeah. Roethlisberger is hurt. Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore did not practice. That means that Isaac Redman is going to be the lead back (possibly the only back). Still, I think the Steelers adjust enough on offense and Redman will play well enough behind a spotty offensive line, that this game will not be an embarrassing blowout. Tennessee has a pretty good defense, but they're not as good as Baltimore or Houston, so the Steelers should be able to score some points.

But, the only way they can score enough points to win is if they stop Chris Johnson. In previous seasons, they may have stopped Johnson by sound gap discipline, winning battles at the point of attack, and taking away cutback lanes with back side pursuit. This season, they don't seem to be able to do that. If Johnson sees the kinds of huge holes and wide open cutback lanes that Foster saw last week, he is going to destroy the Steelers defense. EHHB will pick up whatever points and yardage are left over.

The other way to stop Johnson is to keep the ball the hell away from him so that he doesn't get to touch it. The best way to do that is by running the ball effectively and holding a hefty advantage in time of possession. That will keep the ball away from Johnson, it will keep the old, tired defense off the field, and it will also keep Roethlisberger from dropping back 65 times, which would probably result in his death (or at least maiming).

In order to keep the Titans from crushing an already ailing Roethlisberger, Bruce Arians should call more short passes. It seems like Mike Wallace gains an average of 15 yards on every one of those hitch screens they throw him, so how about throwing more than one of those a game? How about throwing two to Wallace, one to Emmanuel Sanders and maybe a bubble screen or two to Antonio Brown just to mix things up?

What I'm proposing is not a radical concept, but talking about it and doing it are two different things entirely. The Steelers were able to successfully implement this strategy in Week 2 against the Seahawks, but Seattle is nowhere near as good a team as the Titans. They're too strong and too talented for the Steelers to be able to lean on them until they fall over. But, the only other option is to keep trying to score by throwing the ball and keep giving the ball back to Johnson. That strategy has a higher probability of failure.

The only upside is that they're at home and they've got the "us against the world" mentality going for them, which is almost as effective a motivator as Mike Tomlin. We'll see if the home crowd and a psychological edge are enough to overcome the physical and talent mismatches.

I doubt they do.

Prediction:
Titans 21, Steelers 13