Time to Trim Some Talons

I might as well skip to the chase: We're going to lose this week.

There is the hope that such a bold statement will humor both the Football Gods and the Vegas Oracles and cause them to make a fool of me, but I doubt it. We've lost too many games against teams that we should have beaten to really have much hope against the San Antonio Talons.

Led by Aaron Garcia, the fourth greatest Arena QB in history, the Talons are currently sitting on a 5-3 record. The three games they've lost have been against the Shock, Sabercats and the Rattlers - and at least two of them have the right to dream of going to the Arena Bowl (and, the last three Arena Bowls have featured one of those three teams.) Also, we're playing them on the road.

So, yeah - it's an uphill battle, to be sure.

Garcia has been in the league for 18 years and holds almost every record he can hold. Last year, he became the first QB (in any league) to pass 1,000 TDs. The main thing that we have to accept about him is that he cannot be pressured in the pocket and he's not afraid to throw it long. Now, the silver lining here is that I said we can't pressure him. He can be hurried, he can be sacked and he can be picked. These are all symptoms of extremely experienced quarterbacks. They've seen it all (and Garcia has) and they think, "I can hold this for a few more second- OH CRAP!" or "Sure, what the heck - I can make this pass..."

The games that the Talons have lost this year are ones where they were on the wrong side of the turnover battle or where Garcia got beat up. The former of these, we know we can do. The latter we can do better than we have been, so hopefully this is the week we do. When he played for the Sharks last here, he beat us by 25 points, but whatever.

Garcia has four mean targets in former Preds star Robert "I made the right choice" Quiroga, Jomo Wilson, Carl more and his favorite, our own Jason "Whatchu Talkin' Bout/JWill" Willis. They're good. That's all that can be said. Willis is his favorite target, and we know him. That's our advantage. Also - even if it didn't work out last year - Siegfried used to be one of Garcia's coaches. This is something that needs to be exploited.

On our side, Randall will be starting again so, say what you will, it's a bit of consistency. Also, I'm glad "Vampire" Kramer gave me something to write about last week, 'cause he's already gone again. Wagner's on league suspension now, so we'll have another unblooded kicker starting for us. So that's....great. We'll see how it shakes out.

In the meantime, my favorite mutt will continue her voodoo-doll antics with her favorite toy, Garcia.

It was relevant when he played for the Sharks.

Elsewhere in the League

• The NFL Game of the Week really is, as far as I'm concerned. Cleveland travels to Milwaukee in a great division matchup. I'm feeling the Mustangs in this game.
• The battle for number one in west division continues in San Jose for the late game Friday. The Utah Blaze is looking to settle things with the Sabercats, and this one is going to be close. The Cats might not have a lot left in the tank after their brutal battle against the Rattlers last week, and the Blaze might be able to pick up the win and the lead in the division.
• The Voodoo have had a slight fall from grace in the past few weeks, and they'll be looking to get back in the hunt in the late, late game against the Shock. Rowley has had some trouble, but I think he'll prevail this week.
• Another battle for the top slot kicks off Saturday night between the Storm and the Force. Not only because they beat us last week, but because the Storm hasn't been that impressive, I pick the Force.
• Philly will get right back on the horse against Jacksonville and get back to their winning ways
• The Barnstormers have lost three in a row against tough opponents and I know they want to beat someone up bad. Lucky for them, they're hosting the KC Command. If you're the type that likes to play the long odds for an upset (and bets on AFL games), this is the one.
  
• Finally, late Saturday, the Rattlers host my boys from Chicago. The Rush have just been playing way too sloppy (even though they tend to win) to be able to beat a team like the Rattlers on the road, that many timezones away.
  

Power vs Predators review: Ain't got time to bleed

This weekend saw some surprising upsets, gutsy coaching calls, AFL firsts, playoff drama and crushing defeats. Of course, all that really matters to us is what happened in our own little corner of the Arena world, specifically our game against the Preds. Unfortunately, the Power was not able to pull it off, and our playoff chances are now in jeopardy.

This loss did not come because of poor play on Pittsburgh's part, but more because of a couple of flukes, the two teams playing exactly as I'd worried and some surprising moves on the part of Orlando coach, Pat O'Hara.

From the beginning, things got interesting when O'Hara decided to bench Nick Hill in favor of the untested Collin Drafts at quarterback. There are always calls in football (of any variety) that amount to "if it works, they're a genius, if it fails, they're morons." For example, when the Shock decided to start the game a few weeks ago with two onside kicks. That worked, and it was brilliant. When Dallas decided to go for two to beat us, rather than one to tie, that didn't work and I ridiculed them for it.

For the first half of the game, it looked like O'Hara's call was destine for the latter category. The first half ended at 40-27 Power, and our boys were running the game. It could have been called the Campbell and Hall Show, with special guest star, Josh Lay. Eschewing his normal preference for Mike Washington and Lonnell DeWalt, Morris connected with the above receivers most of the first half.

On the other side of the ball, Drafts just wasn't able to get anything going most of the first half, and when he was, Lay was right there to give him heartburn. Lay had two huge turnovers during this game, and broke up a lot of plays when needed. Also, Drafts wasn't having a lot of luck getting big plays out of his studs Toliver and Quiroga, though Josh Bush really got things moving - including a massive 54-yard return for a score in the first half.

It wasn't long into the game before the announcers were betting on Hill's return to the game - in fact, he could be seen on the warmup bike very quickly. Morris boldly stated at the half that they were "going to hear a pin drop in here!" and it certainly looked that way.

Until my prediction reared its ugly, ugly head.

I had warned that Orlando starts slow and Pittsburgh runs out of gas. That's basically what happened in this game, but Pittsburgh's running out of gas was more because of a disastrous third quarter than anything else.

After ending the half with a touchdown, the Preds got to start the second with the ball - and that's when everything went straight to hell. Fairly quickly, TT Toliver got back on the board with another touchdown. Then, the kickoff bounced off the iron, making it a live ball, which Chris Dubalt scooped up and ran in. Then, in what might be an AFL first, the very next kickoff did the same thing, which Dubalt also ran in.

After blowing the lead and giving up 28-straight points, the Power never got back into the swing of things. Morris struggled greatly in the little time he had on the field in the 3rd quarter and couldn't get a rhythm going. Eventually, he attempted to return to the tried-and-true with DeWalt, which did result in another two touchdowns, but it wasn't enough.

Again, the Power did not play a bad game. The first half was all them, and they were able to change it up a bit with different receivers. The defense was huge with Lay's turnovers, Stevenson's pass coverage and Drafts getting sacked twice. Hell, even Edinger went 6-8 in PATs on the night. Really, we only lost by a TD and a two-point conversion, so it wasn't a blow-out by any means. Had those two freak kickoffs not happened... Well, I can't say that those two drives would have ended with scores for us, but the final score probably would have been a lot more favorable to us.

A win's a win, and a loss is a loss, and in the end, it doesn't matter how well we played - the division lead, and possibly the playoffs were lost this week. There is still a chance to make it, but it will not be easy in any way.

Elsewhere in the league

• The most important game to us this week was Cleveland at Milwaukee. Had the Mustangs pulled it off, it would have been a gift to us, but it wasn't to be. Milwaukee played a hell of a game and almost pulled it off, actually. However, two lost fumbles and pick is no way to beat a team as tough as the Gladiators. Despite blocking and recovering a PAT attempt for 2pts, the Mustangs lost in the final seconds when Rocco was able to scramble one in for the win.
• In a mostly meaningless game, the Voodoo pulled off a strong win against Tampa Bay, marking only their 3rd 'W' this season.
  
• In possibly the biggest shocker of the year, San Jose followed their second-worst loss in AFL history by snapping their 7-game losing streak...against the 13-1 Sharks. Had I not been watching, I would not have believed it.

If the Playoffs were today
Hoo-boo. Where to start? Well, we lost the division title (for this week, at least) and with it, our preliminary spot in the playoffs. Where do we go from here? First off, Cleveland is only a game ahead of us, so winning out - which would include beating them - would leave us with tied records, and us with the head-to-head. In theory, we could drop one to the Rattlers next week if Cleveland was nice enough to lose to Utah - but I don't want to count on that. This scenario also relies on both teams finishing the division strong by beating Philly. Now, if Cleveland wants to lose to the Soul next week, I'm not going to argue.

Right now, Arizona, Chicago and Jacksonville have all clinched a spot in the playoffs at this point. Arizona has clinched their division, and Jacksonville has home-field advantage at this point. Here's where the San Jose game comes in. Now, Arizona has a tied record with Jacksonville, with an extra game played (and a bye still to come.) Should they both win out (AZ better not!) then they'd have fully tied records, with Arizona having the head-to-head. If they both make the Arena Bowl - and I expect them to - then it would be in Arizona.

So, that's where we stand, and what these final few weeks have in store. Cross your fingers for the Power, and stay tuned for more.

Power vs Predators - Playoff Preview?

Up until they got slammed this week by Georgia, it was shaping up that we'd be playing Orlando in the first round of the playoffs, making this week very interesting. Not only would it be a preview, but it would be a nationally televised one, thanks to the NFL network's weekly games, and be in Orlando - the city that maintains the highest average attendance numbers in the league.

As it stands, all of that is still true except the first-round match-up. It's still a big game, with big fans and available to a big viewing audience. Furthermore, it is still possible that things will shake out to where we meet up with them in the first round - though, not as likely if we win this week.

But, there are no guarantees in life, and neither team is assured a post-season appearance at this point. As I mentioned earlier in the week, Orlando, Pittsburgh and Cleveland are all playing for the same wildcard slot at this point, with the Force only a game ahead of us. The stakes are plenty high this weekend, and a lot rides on this game.

Being that they are on a three-game losing streak, it might be easy to say that Orlando is on a slide - but make no mistake: this is a tough, tough team. Let's look at who they lost to. The Georgia Force? So what - so did we. The Tampa Bay Storm? So what - so did we. The Jacksonville "Frickin Lasers on Their Heads" Sharks? So what - with the exception of the Rattlers and the 1972 Dolphins, so did everyone.

Half of their losses this season have been in the last three weeks against teams that also beat us. Two of those games were decided by 2 or less points. So far this season, there's only two teams they've lost to that we haven't- and that's only because we haven't played the other one yet (Yaaaaay, next week!)

My point here is, we have a team that is about as equal in standings as possible, that we need to play on their home turf, where they have insane fans. (Seriously - they actually go out and buy these sweet-as-hell Predator masks.) What's more, they have a fantastic receiver corps and play hard.

I mean, seriously - what the hell can we do? Wear lightning bolts on our heads?

As a fan, I'm looking forward to this game, and have already announced my intention to commandeer my brother-in-law's TV while I'm out in Soul country this weekend. As a Power fan, I'm feeling like I did around the 1:41 mark of the Mustangs game.

First off the bat, Nick Hill is a great QB. He averages over 300 yards every game and has a lot of options to throw to. TT Toliver, Robert Quiroga and Bobby Sippio all have over a thousand yards receiving on the season, an average of 22 TDs apiece and names that would make awesome names for a Vin Diesel character. Close on their heels is Josh Bush to fill in the (few) gaps.

This isn't a case where you have to worry about one or two of them every week - you have to worry about all of them every week. They all play, and they're all incredible. Quiroga is utilitarian and reliable. He's where he's supposed to be when Hill needs him to be there. Toliver and Sippio are both show-boaters who are unpredictable and play like DeWalt, only better. When Bush gets the ball, he runs like his ass is on fire and his balls are catching.

Long and short of it is: They're all dangerous. Given that we've not had good luck this season with containing explosive receivers, they're going to be a problem.

Also, Orlando is playing for their season, just like we are. They're going to come at us hard, and we need to give it right back. Being on the road with a rabid fan base, the crowd is going to be a bigger factor than usual. Add to this the fact that they all know they're on national TV, and this is going to be a doozy.

So, how do we win?

Here's the big issue: Orlando has a habit of starting very slowly and coming out in the second half. Pittsburgh starts strong and runs out of gas. I hope that the added pressure of the end of the season and being on TV will give the Power the juice to play four quarters. Coasting in the second half is something we cannot afford to do.

Looking at Georgia's decisive victory, we can see what it will take to get to them. In a word, that's the Defense. If we have the defense we saw last week, we can get it done. Georgia kept the pressure on Hill all game and even got a safety off of him. Taking advantage of a traditional slow Orlando start, they got ahead and then shut down the offense before it could rally. You could tell Hill was frustrated, and he started making a lot of mistakes.

Obviously, the biggest key is to see if I was right: Siegfried held Morris back last week so that he is healthy for this game. We have no chance with Wallace, but with Morris we have a shot. In an interview this week, Willis commented that, when Morris is "at the helm, we are pretty much clicking on all cylinders." Given the way the Power has performed with him behind center, I'd say that's a pretty safe statement.

When push comes to shove, this week is going to be an even match-up, with a slight edge to Orlando. Everyone has something to lose this game, and a lot to gain. Tune in this Friday night on the NFL network.

Elsewhere in the league

• The main game to be concerned with is the division match-up between Cleveland and Milwaukee. Now, I doubt the Mustangs have a shot in hell, for any number of reasons - but we can hope. An upset here would be a thing of utter beauty.
• Expect Jacksonville to just slap San Jose to the turf in their game.
• Much like the Mustangs, I don't expect much out of the Soul, but if they managed to beat the Vigilantes that would help a lot of different teams.
  

Week 6: Sharks at Power Preview

The preview is a bit short this week, because there's frankly not a lot to say. This week is going to be a “come to Jesus” week for the Power. I could talk about how good the Jacksonville Sharks are, and how they're currently 3-1. I could talk about the fact that their quarterback is already at almost a thousand yards on the season and has a solid receiving corps of three men he is comfortable going to.

I could, but that's not why we're here.

The Power need to focus on the other side of the ball, and focus hard. I'm really hoping that last game was an effect of fatigue and injures and that we can bounce back this week – but there's still a lot to consider.

Morris is still out for at least another week. That's bad. Powertool is off of (mysterious) suspension. That's good. McCabe is sitting on IR with Morris. That's bad. We still have Morrelli to stick behind center. That's...er... Well, let's just call that the cursed frogurt.

Morrelli hasn't had a lot of time in charge yet. Unfortunately, none of our QBs have. McCabe has the most experience, but it's been a mixed bag. Morrelli has had big moments, but no cohesive four quarter stands. He hasn't even had a solid half yet – but he is who we need to rely on this weekend. One way or another, he needs to make it happen.

If Morrelli can get his act together, he has to take advantage of his receiving corps. It's still an offensive advantage that we have a lot of guys to go to, but we're getting to the point where I'd feel a lot more comfortable if there were a few “go-to” guys with the rest being utility players. Now that we have DeWalt back, we've got five candidates for this.

Another factor this week is that the Sharks are Coach Siegfried's old team. This means we're going to have combined factors of them knowing how he thinks, and him having an idea what they're going to do. We can also hope for a bit of him trying to prove something, but that backfires as often as it works in sports.

This week, we also need to see the Power speeding up the game. Both Keller and I have hammered on the point that Siegfried is playing it too safe. Those plodding, meticulous drives are great when we're in the lead – but that hasn't been happening as often as any of us would like. The game needs to speed up, and the Power need to take command of the field.

Here's the brass tacks on this week: It's not as important as it could be. The Soul were nice enough to lose last week and give us that breathing room we were hoping for. They play Tampa this week, and I'm sure they can win. However, even if they win and we lose, that will just tie our standings up. Philly still has the head-to-head, but it could be worse.

As such, I'd say it's time to take some risks. Get Morrelli out there and light a fire under him. Get him to get that ball in the air and move it down field. Winning is great, but changing the team's overall momentum is better.

They just need to protect the hell out of him, because if he goes down, we really don't have any one to put in his shoes against the Voodoo next week...

****UPDATE****

Power have signed QB Xavier Lee. Unclear at this time if he's a backup or is starting.

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Elsewhere in the league

• Like I said above, the Soul lost to the Preds last week, but not for lack of trying. Coach Ho made some ballsy moves – including letting the Preds score with 35 seconds left just to make sure they got the ball one more time, and benching Allgood for a QB Orlando had no preparation for – but it wasn't enough. Despite a replacement QB with a lot of hustle and attack, but he was no match for Nick Hill's use of TT Toliver and Robert Quiroga.
  
  
• The Sabercats should more than likely teach the Talons some humility for us this weekend.
  
  
• The Gladiators are playing the pathetic Voodoo and that...that's not gonna be pretty. I'm gonna call it early and say that the Gladiators are going to be 4-0 and the Voodoo will keep a good thing going at 0-5.