Better Than Buccos: Browns at Steelers Preview

Here we are.  The Steelers have been eliminated from playoff consideration and the best that they can hope for is to finish at .500.  If they manage to accomplish that objective, they will have had a better season than the Pirates, though it's fair to argue which team had the more epic collapse in 2012.  It's been a long, frustrating season from start to finish, but there have been plenty of highs to go along with the lows.

I think the Browns are improving and I think that they have a bright future now that Mike Holmgren isn't in charge of personnel decisions and Pat Schurmur will most likely not be in charge of anything in the very near future (like Monday).

I think Brandon Weeden is going to be a good quarterback well into his mid-30s, which means that they'll have a solid five years of good quarterback play in Cleveland.  Trent Richardson is the second coming of Jamaal Lewis and I'm not looking forward to that guy running roughshod over Steeler defenders for the next decade or so.

Joe Hayden leads a talented, ball-hawking secondary and the front seven has shown improvement over the course of the season, though that's definitely the team's weakness.  Well, that and the offensive line.  And they're pretty thin at receiver and tight end. 

OK, they have some work to do, but I think the Browns and Bengals are trending up and the Steelers and hated Ravens are trending down.  Cincinnati took a huge step forward in Week 16 and, according to my Pick Em picks, I think they'll take another big step forward by beating Baltimore this week.

My point is not that the Browns are awesome and that the Steelers suck.  My point is that these are two teams headed in different directions that happen to both be eliminated from post season contention.

But, at least as far as Sunday is concerned, the Browns are still the Browns and the Steelers are still the Steelers.  Mike Wallace and Heath Miller won't be available, but I don't think that will make a huge difference.  The Steelers are going to do what they do on offense and Cleveland will try to stop them.  Given that I don't think the Browns are going to force eight turnovers on Sunday, I don't think they'll be able to make enough stops to win this game.  Weeden and Richardson have both been declared out and so has Colt McCoy.  That means that something called a Thad Lewis is starting at quarterback and a Montario Hardesty (charter member of the Wasted Fantasy Football Pick-up Hall of Fame) will be starting at tailback.

At some point, probably after their fifth consecutive three-and-out, the Browns will realize that there's not that much difference between 5-11 and 6-10 and just lay down.  They've done that the past few times they've played the Steelers in the last game of the season and they'll do it again.  Because the Browns are still the Browns and the Steelers are still the Steelers.

Next season, who knows?  Cleveland could be fighting for a playoff spot and the Steelers could be 5-10.

This season, the Brownies have Thad Lewis, a lame duck head coach, and some dude named Montario starting at running back.  The Steelers still have a core group of guys -- the old guard of Keisel, Ryan Clark, Max Starks, Troy Polamalu, Casey Hampton, Larry Foote, Ben Roethlisberger, and even guys on IR like Ike Taylor and Heath -- that will want to finish the season strong and will do whatever it takes to make sure Week 17 isn't yet another losing effort.

Sure, the Steelers went on the road earlier this season and won a game against a division rival with their third string quarterback and a back-up starting at running back.  But, they also still had something to play for and those guys were Charlie Batch and Jonathan Dwyer, not Thad Lewis and Montario Hardesty.  Not that I think Batch and Dwyer are all-stars, but they've certainly shown enough throughout the season to suggest they're better than Lewis and Hardesty.

Then there's the fact that a big win on Sunday can fool us into believing the Steelers will come back strong next season, carrying momentum through offseason activities and training camp.  And the fact that a dismantling of the Browns would show, in some small way, that this team had real potential to be a dominant squad, they just frittered that potential away through injuries and inconsistent play.

I'm not looking at match-ups as much as I'm looking at history, emotion, and mental fortitude.  For those reasons, I think the Steelers will roll (which means that the Browns will win).

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Browns 6

Pick Em Week 17

(For Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

#StupidForty

Not much more needs to be said heading into this week.  Stupid, stupid Forty  Ah well, there's always next year, right?  One swing game this week, and that's me in the Cincy/Baltimore game.  I honestly think that Cincy is going to choke after knocking us out of the playoffs as well as get cocky after reaching the post-season two years in a row for the first time in 30 years.  Which really puts things in perspective.  I gave that a lot of thought after spending the holidays in Eagles country and came to a conclusion:

Steelers fans are really, really spoiled.

The Bungles are jumping for joy after getting there two years in a row.  The Eagles fans have been enduring years of up and down torment.  Some fans support a team that's never even gone to the Super Bowl.  Yet, we in Steelers country - who rarely have to endure two years in a row not going to the post season - are crying in our beers after this bummer of a season.  I've even heard people calling for Tomlin to get fired.

Calm down, people.  It's not the end of the world - it just feels like it right now.  Simply take this feeling, put it in a box, look at it for a moment - realizing that this is how Cleveland fans feel all the time - and just hold on to the fact that Power season is right around the corner.






Lock of the Week (Keller): San Francisco over Arizona (I think that this one could get ugly, with Jim Harbaugh running up the score to impress the poll voters, so take the points and the over): 42-14. 

Jim Harbaugh is mad that his team got smoked in Seattle last week and the 49ers will have a shot at the #2 seed in the NFC.  They kick off at the same time as the Packers, but Harbaugh will make sure that there is no scoreboard watching.  He knows that he can win some points in the coach's poll and improve his BCS ranking with a big win on Sunday.

Seriously, though, San Francisco will play angry and Steelers West has nothing left to play for, which means BIG advantage 49ers.

Lock of the Week (Weidman): San Fran over Arizona (Hahahahahahahahahahahaha, yeah, Points and Over):  
Holy baked beans with marshmallows, 16.5 favorites?  How can I not take that line?  AZ is basically the Honey Badger right now, and not in a good way.  This is the point where they return to the days of old where they aren't even aware that the league ever expanded to a 16 game season.  Nothing to play for, nothing left in the tank, and not an ounce of give-a-f-   Er, I'm saying they are out of it.  Meanwhile, they're playing against someone who likes to run up the score.  Also, #StupidForty.

Lock of the Week (Forty): Denver over Kansas City 28-10 (The Broncos are favored by 17, that's just crazy. However, I it's in the realm of possibility and with a spread that high you probably want to take the 42 over.)

I hate to take the same Lock team two weeks in a row, but Denver is the best team with something left to play for against the worst opponent. If Denver wins, they get the number two playoff spot. If they win and Houston loses to the Colts (very possible) the Broncos get the top playoff seed. There's a big difference between a week of rest and two games at home compared to no rest and possibly having to win two on the road to get to the Super Bowl. Denver's going to play everybody and open a huge lead, then coast in the second half. The Chiefs will let them, because what do they have to play for? Pride is even out the door for them at this woeful point. Might as well go all in on getting the top draft pick.

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode."  A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team.  Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.


Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Season on the Brink: Bengals at Steelers Preview

Well, the bad news is that the game against the Cowboys sucked.  The good news is that the Steelers are officially in playoff mode and it's win-or-go-home time.  They seem to do better in situations like this, unless of course they're up against Tim Tebow.

This is definitely a winnable game and that's not a dig on the Bengals.  The losses to the Titans, Raiders, and Browns weren't cases of the Steelers losing a winnable game, they were cases of them honking away a sure win.  Yes, things change when the game actually kicks off and you commit eight turnovers, but the fact remains that they had match-up advantages pretty much everywhere on both sides of the ball in those games and failed to capitalize on those advantages.

On Sunday, they don't have a ton of match-ups in their favor, but they have enough.  Cincinnati doesn't have anyone that can cover Heath Miller.  Dallas had a tough time dealing with Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown -- provided they held onto the ball -- and the Cowboys have a more talented secondary than the Bengals.  Emmanuel Sanders will be back this week and will be at full strength.  The only guys that won't play are Ike Taylor and Mike Adams, so they're healthier than they've been at any point in the season and certainly in better shape health-wise than they were for the first meeting in Cincy.  Ben Roethlisberger is a better quarterback than Andy Dalton and Dalton has struggled pretty mightily against this Steelers defense thus far in his career.  BenJarvis Green-Ellis hasn't been able to get much going this season, the Bengals offensive line has been far better in pass protection than they have in the running game, and the Steelers held the Law Firm to only 69 yards in the first meeting.

I'm aware of the fact that Cincinnati has Geno Atkins and he's a very good, very disruptive player on the interior of the defensive line.  But, Legursky and Ramon Foster were able to contain Atkins in the first game, to the tune of two tackles and a sack, which makes me think that Pouncey and DeCastro might actually fare better.  DeCastro looked a little rough at times in his first start, but he was coming off three months of inactivity and only had three practices to get used to the line calls and the tendencies of his line mates.  I think he'll be better this week and Pouncey usually steps up his level of play for big games (unless it's an actual playoff game, in which case he's usually hurt).

With all the talk about Atkins, I think people are forgetting that the Bengals have a really talented, solid front seven.  They lead the league with 43 sacks.  They pressure quarterbacks into making bad decisions and they're plus 3 in the turnover department (Steelers are minus 14).  But... they have the same personnel that they had when the Steelers plowed them over for 167 yards in Week 7 and the offensive line for Pittsburgh has benefited from a couple of upgrades since then.  Jonathan Dwyer ran for 122 yards on only 17 carries in that game.  The Steelers outgained the Bengals 431-185 in that game and really dominated throughout.  They just lost the field position battle and turned the ball over in the red zone.

If they can keep from committing a costly turnover -- especially a pick six, which is no sure thing with this team -- they should be able to win fairly easily.

One thing really scares the hell out of me in this game and his name is AJ Green.  Without Taylor to keep Green in check, you have either Keenan Ivory Lewis or Cortez Allen or... #35, whatever his name is, it doesn't really matter because he's awful.  (I know it's Josh Victorian, but that still doesn't matter because he's awful.)  If Green's able to roam free, then he'll do more damage than Miles Austin and Dez Bryant put together.  My guess is that they double him with Lewis and Ryan Grant and err on the side of not getting beat deep, but Green's good enough at adjusting to the ball when it's in the air that he's still open even if he's double covered.

I think that Green still runs wild, but it's kept within reason.

That's all the X's and O's and strategy, but here's the big reason I think they win on Sunday: If they lose Sunday, their season is over.  This team has been maddeningly inconsistent all year, but they've always been able to find just the right time and way to break the hearts of Steelers fans all over the world. 

This Sunday isn't the right time.  If they lose Sunday, they're done, Steeler fans have no hope for the next week.  Their hearts will be broken, sure, but their team will have lost to an up-and-coming team and, hey, the Bengals deserve a break every now and again.

Next Sunday is the right time, because they're playing Cleveland and there's every reason to believe that they absolutely should win that game and make it to the playoffs.  To lose out on a post-season berth by getting beat at home by the lowly, stupid Cleveland Browns is considerably more heartbreaking. 

The only thing that this team has consistently done all season is break our hearts and drive us crazy.  That will continue on Sunday against the Bengals.

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Bengals 23

Pick Em Week 16

(For Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

Well, the good news and bad news is that the playoffs start for the Steelers this Sunday.  One and done is a possibility both of these last two weeks, and that's kind of how the Steelers like it.  If Hines Ward were still around, he'd be explaining to us right now how everyone's against us, no one thinks we can make it, and we're in it for ourselves.

I don't think it's going to work worth a damn, but it's a nice thought to get us through the end of the season.  Right now, the Steelers are doing a magnificent impression of pretty much every episode of VH1's Behind the Music and team continuity has gone right out the window.  Whether or not Haley and Roethlisberger really are setting up a power struggle, Big Ben certainly wants us to think it.  Our receivers are dropping everything that comes their way and blaming everyone but themselves.  Tomlin has reached total incomprehensibly incoherent, while trying to pretend that everything's just fine and the band is going on their scheduled January tour.

That being said, Keller and I both picked them Stillers because they're going to win at least one of these last two weeks.  Besides, #StupidForty is up by 6 games and we gotta do something.  If the gods are smiling, Forty will drop all three swing games and his lock, and Keller and I will only be two games back in the final week.

I'd also like a new bike and a Nerf N-Strike Raider Rapid Fire Dart Blaster, Santa.



Lock of the Week (Keller): Green Bay over Tennessee (take the points and the over): 38-17.

Boy, there are a lot of great options, including the Greatriots favored by two touchdowns on the road.  I think that the Broncos will keep it rolling, but there's something about the Browns at this time of year, with everyone fighting to keep their jobs, that has just enough of a spoilery quality to it to keep me away.  The Packers are still fighting for a first round bye, Aaron Rodgers is still fighting to prove any naysayers wrong because he thinks they still exist, and Green Bay as a team is fighting to remind everyone that they were 15-1 last year and may not be too shabby.  I watched the Packers-Bears game on Sunday and it wasn't as close as the score would indicate.  I watched Jets-Titans on Monday night football and wish I could have those three hours of my life back.  Tennessee needed luck and a 94 yard touchdown to beat a horrible, horrible Jets team.  Take the Packers all the way to the bank and thank me later.

Lock of the Week (Weidman): New England over Jacksonville (Take the points, but the over might be pushing it): 

Okay, I think Peyton's a really safe bet, but #StupidForty is going with him, and I need to have some hope.  Also, RAHDGERS! is the man....but I gotta go with Brady.  He lead my Crafton Cripplers to their first ever Fantasy Football Championship, so I gotta back my QB.  Plus, the Pats got humiliated last week and they don't tend to let that stand.

Lock of the Week (Forty): Denver over Cleveland 34-17 (Denver's been blowing people out the last few weeks and they're at home. Take the 13 point spread and the over 44.)

I was dead wrong last week in thinking Baltimore would wake up and Denver wold lighten up. Thanks to the 49ers shocking the Patriots at home, the Broncos still have something very important to play for this late in the year. Since New England holds the tie breaker over Denver, they need to pretty much win out in order to get a first round playoff bye. No team is hotter than Denver right now, winners of nine straight. I like to look at scores and Denver has usually been scoring over 30 while holding opponents to the mid-20s or lower. Cleveland is still a team with fight in them, but they're just way overmatched here and too young to surprise a veteran Broncos team, led by Peyton Manning.
 

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode."  A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team.  Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.


Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Glory Hole Days: Steelers at Cowboys Preview

I've been waiting to preview this game all season, because I wanted to link to this video where Jerry Jones says that he wants the Cowboys to get back to the "glory hole days."

That's as stupid as it is funny, and it's about as stable as my prediction for this week.

Honestly, I have no idea.  The Steelers are a talented team, but they're also banged up, deeply flawed, and very inconsistent.  The Cowboys are a talented team, but they're also banged up, deeply flawed, and very inconsistent. 

Dallas has home field advantage, but it was the Cowboys-Steelers game in 2004 that first got announcers and reporters talking about how well Pittsburgh travels.  There were about 20,000 Steelers fans at that game and it got the nation's attention.  The Steelers won that game and also beat the Romo-led Cowboys at Heinz Field in 2008.  But, Dallas also hosted Super Bowl XLV and that didn't work out so well for the Steelers.

I know Ben Roethlisberger looked awfully rusty -- almost like a guy who hadn't played in a month or something -- but I also know that he's better than he showed against the Chargers and should play better against a Dallas secondary that has some injury issues.

I don't know what's wrong with Mike Wallace, but I know that he's an extremely talented player that can break a game wide open (like he did against the Giants).  Whether or not he gets his head straight this week, I have no idea.

I know Keenan Ivory Lewis and Cortez Allen looked pretty lost starting their first game together, but Dick LeBeau was probably pretty lost without Ike Taylor.  Ike's been in every game since 2004 and that had to be an adjustment for LeBeau.  And for the rest of the secondary, kind of like when Ryan Clark missed those two games against the Broncos.

Mike Tomlin has coached through this season like he forgot to take his Adderall, but it's not like he's suddenly forgotten everything that has made him successful.  He's got a strong, veteran roster that doesn't seem to care too much what Rashard Mendenhall does or doesn't do/Tweet.  I don't think there's as much discord in the locker room as we've been led to believe.

Looking at the match-ups on the offensive line, it's crazy to think that a team that got shredded by San Diego's front four last week could hold up against the likes of DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer.  But it also would've been crazy to assume they could hold up against Terrell Suggs and Jarrett Johnson, yet they did just that in the two games against the hated Ravens.

Sure, they looked like total crap against the Chargers and probably deserved to lose by more than they did.  They also looked like total crap against the Browns, then went on the road and beat Baltimore with their third string quarterback.  Since everyone's down on them this week, they probably have the "no one outside this locker room believed we could do it" mentality, even though the current Vegas line has them favored by a point.

So...

I DON'T THINK YOU CAN DO IT, STEELERS.  JUST TRY TO PROVE ME WRONG.

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Cowboys 23

Pick Em Week 15

(For Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

We are fully into garbage time of the season.  Well, except for our division, but then, our division is mostly garbage, so there's that.  I could recap what I said last week about teams that don't care, teams that care too much and spoilers...but you'll see below that Forty already did that in his lock section.

For a brief note on the Steelers: Keller has some wishful thinking going on, I think.  I know that Steelers/Cowboys runs deep in him, and he really needs a win in order to function, but I just don't see it.  If the Steelers get it up for their last two (divisional) games, they're in the post-season no matter what happens this weekend.  I haven't seen anything out of the Steelers this season that says they'll play hard against an no-matter team, especially when they know they're going to rock hard the next week in anger.  I also haven't seen the Steelers dig down to their "have to" yet this season.  They've won by the same factor that will be the only thing to get them into the playoffs:  luck.

Speaking of Stupid Forty (Hash tag it, baby.  #StupidForty), he's got this bad boy all but locked up.  If he fails now, he has no one to blame but himself.  Without further ado, here's the pics.



Lock of the Week (Keller): Texans over Colts (the line is a bit steep at -9, but definitely take the over at 48) Texans 34, Colts 27.

Pretty slim pickings here for Locks, with Houston currently holding the biggest line.  I think that Lions-Cardinals line might move up a bit throughout the course of the week, but I don't think it gets higher than 7.  This line might creep down to 7 or 6.5 at some point, so jump on 6.5 and the over if that happens.  I don't think there's a way that the Texans drop this one: They're at home, they have a chance to clinch the division, and Andrew Luck has been very average on the road this season.  Top it off with the fact that Houston got embarrassed in prime time this week (stupid Forty, stupid Weidman), remembering they smoked the hated Ravens the week after getting blown out by the Packers earlier this season on a Sunday night, and I'd say this is as much of a Lock as we're gonna get in Week 15.

Lock of the Week (Weidman): Detroit over Steelers West 21-17 (I think this game will be close-ish, so take the under)

In honor of my season of Pick 'Em being over, I figured I'd pick a lock between two teams in the same situation.  Aside from one recent year, I just can't bring myself to pick the Cards often.  We're almost at the end, and they still haven't figured out the whole QBing thing.  Detroit's not much better of a team, but they're still better.

Lock of the Week (Forty): New England over San Francisco 34-14 (My score is probably way off from what the ‘experts’ are saying, but the Pats have been so strong at home. Take the Pats with the points and the over.)

There are no sure Locks in my mind this week. This late in the season, you have several teams who have clinched what they need to and are taking their foot off the gas. You also have other teams struggling to make a playoff spot and it’s hard to say who will rise to the top, the Steelers vs. the Cowboys are a prime example. Then you have a bunch of garbage games that nobody cares about.

Not even the players’ mothers are going to watch Oakland and Kansas City. Hell, probably the most interesting story this week is if the Redskins can continue their role without RGIII against a surging, Browns squad.

This is probably the only time this season I’ll have two division leaders in my Lock. The Patriots have been dominant at home in the second half of the season. The past two home games saw them score 42 points on the Texans and 59 on the Colts, both teams with winning records. The 49ers have been solid on the road, but dropped their last road game to division rival St. Louis. Pats coach Bill Belichick loves to stick it to a young quarterback (reference Luck, Andrew) and should have his guys all over Colin Kaepernick. After beating the Texans, Belichick can sense the overall number one seed in his grasp, giving the Pats home field advantage throughout the playoffs. He wants that, oh yes he does.

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode."  A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team.  Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.


Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Pick Em Week 14

(For Pick 'Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

 Are we really this close to the end of the season already?  Is it really December?  Have I really not started my Christmas shopping yet?

Well, it's looking more and more like my Christmas gift to Forty will be a victory in Pick 'Em 2012, that's for sure.

We're at the part of the season where picking takes on a slightly different tactic.  Rather than looking at the match-ups and records themselves, you need to look more at the situation. Some teams <cough Steelers cough> are right on the bubble and need to play some smash-mouth down the stretch.  On the other end of the spectrum are teams like the Pats and Falcons who have locked their divisions and can lay back a bit if they want (which is why I can see Keller's pick below, I just don't agree with it.)  Finally, there's my favorite late-season disease:  Spoileritus.  The Browns haven't had much going for them over the years, but at least they know they always have that late-season possibility of ruining some team's season for them.


 

 

Lock of the Week (Keller): San Francisco over Miami (the 49ers should cover any spread under two touchdowns and take the under): 27-7

As shaky as the 49ers have been as a Lock (at Minnesota, that freakin' tie against the Rams), I trust them the most here.  There are two other double-digit spreads out there (Denver/Oakland and Seattle/Arizona), but those are both division games and anything can happen.  Plus which, the Broncos are on the road.  Jim Harbaugh's team is also money after a humiliating loss.  They smoked the Jets and Bills in back-to-back games after they lost to the Vikings and then tore Chicago apart the week after their tie with St. Louis.  I trust these guys to bounce back.  I don't care how many tattoos their quarterback has, '9ers all the way.

Lock of the Week (Weidman): Broncos over Raiders, cover and under.  21-7
Keller's right - it's a divisional game and anything can happen, but that doesn't change the fact that Denver is still the way better team.  "Spoileritus" concerns aside, I still don't see Peyton slacking off anymore now than I did a few weeks ago.  One concern for the Broncos is that Stokley is questionable for this game, however, they have plenty of depth without him - and the Raiders still suck.

Lock of the Week (Forty): Seattle over Arizona 28-12 (The odds on this is one of the weirdest I've seen. The under is an insanely low 34.5, but the spread is 11.5. As you can see with the numbers I play with below, the spread is super iffy, but with an over/under that low, you've got to take the over.)

Seattle is undefeated at home and Arizona only has one win on the road. That win came against the Patriots and the Cards were 4-0 before losing eight in a row, including only putting six points up against the Jets last week. Sure, they only put up seven points, but it was with a third string quarterback at the helm. The Jets only put seven on Seattle too, but the Seahawks responded with 28 points. Seattle has averaged about 24 points at home while the Cards have only done about 12 points on average in their road losses. What does this all mean? I figured I would just throw a bunch of numbers out there to befuddle you and hope Seattle's home mojo holds out.

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode."  A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team.  Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.


Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

My Prediction... Pain: Steelers at Hated Ravens Preview

I have a feeling that this game is going to suck.  A lot.  Like, suck more than the last two games, if that's even possible.  In the Sunday night game two weeks ago, I at least saw a silver lining, a way that the Steelers might be able to pull it off.  By the time kickoff rolled around, I actually thought they had a good shot at winning.  This week?  Not so much.

First and foremost, Unibrow is significantly better at home than he is on the road.  One of the reasons I thought the Steelers might be able to beat the hated Ravens in Week 11 was that he loses about 40 quarterback rating points when he's not in Baltimore.  He didn't play very well at Heinz Field, but now he gains those 40 points this week.  Torrey Smith was shut down by Ike Taylor in the last game and Ray Rice was kept pretty much in check.  The only way this game stays close is if that happens again. Flacco will be able to spread the ball around to Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin and will be more effective even if Smith and Rice don't blow up, but we're looking at shades of the 2011 opener if they do.

Then you have the fact that the offense probably won't be able to get going with Charlie Batch behind center.  I'm guessing he'll be on a short leash, but Brian Hoyer and Byron Leftwich aren't exactly attractive alternatives.  Baltimore's defense has been surprisingly soft against the run this season, but they were able to hold Jonathan Dwyer and Rashard Mendenhall to 88 yards on 23 attempts.  The Steelers had 134 yards total, but 31 of that came on Leftwich's touchdown run, which skews the average. 

In order to have a shot at winning this game, they need to keep it low scoring and ugly like the last game.  In order to do that, they need to run the ball effectively and take some of the pressure off Batch.  Unfortunately, Batch doesn't scare anyone, especially the hated Ravens.  They'll stack 15 guys in the box and make Batch beat them.  I don't think there's a lot of people that believe he can beat them, possibly not even Batch himself.

While the logical center of my brain knows that there's a very low statistical probability of them committing eight turnovers again, I can't convince the rest of my brain that it's most likely not going to happen.  I can seriously see six or seven turnovers, even if they don't get to eight.  If they lose the turnover battle in a big way, they're going to lose big.

There are a lot of factors that point to this game ending in a blowout and some serious tears, but I don't think it's going to be that lopsided.  Yes, Charlie Batch is a shadow of his former self and yes, the hated Ravens still have a lot of talent on defense.  Yes, Flacco is lights out at home, but he's also struggled against the Steelers throughout his career, regardless of where the game's being played.  They don't have Ben Roethisberger -- finally, officially ruled out today -- or LaMarr Woodley, but they get Antonio Brown back and Troy Polamalu is apparently going to play a significant role on defense. 

With Brown back, that takes the defensive focus away from Mike Wallace and allows Heath and Emmanuel Sanders more room to roam.  Sure, Batch is still throwing them the ball, but putting Brown back in the mix makes this a better offense.  Batch has a faster delivery than Leftwich, so that means they can mix in some quick screens and make Baltimore think twice about loading up the line of scrimmage and leaving Wallace, Sanders, and Brown free to roam after the catch.  One missed tackle could mean a huge play.

If they get something out of the passing game, that opens things up for the running game, they don't turn the ball over, and Troy does something spectacular on defense, then maybe there's a chance for victory.  But... I highly doubt that all those things happen on Sunday.

They'll accomplish enough of those objectives to keep the game from being a laugher, but I think they ultimately fall short.

Prediction:
Hated Ravens 23, Steelers 13

Pick Em Week 13

(For Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

Last week gave Forty a 5-game lead over me and a 3-game one over Keller.  This  might put him out of reach, unless the bottom drops out.  In the meantime, I'm gonna hit the ATM.

In regards to the Steelers last week, well, turnovers change games and-  Hey!  Did you hear that the Power picked up Alvin Ray Jackson?  Dude had almost as many interceptions last season with the Voodoo (14) by himself as the Power had as a whole team (17.)  That's huge!  Now we just need to re-sign PJ Berry and I'll feel a lot better about the season.  So, in conclusion, it was a really rough game for Steelers fans last week.



Lock of the Week (Keller): Green Bay over Minnesota (Packers are my lock, but I'm not 100% sure they can cover a nine point spread and I'm thinking take the Under): 24-17 The Packers are at home, they're probably more than a little miffed about the fact that they got stomped by the Giants on Sunday night, and the Vikings pass defense is awful.  It's possible that Aaron Rodgers goes off in this one, but he hasn't quite been the same since Greg Jennings got sidelined, Jordy Nelson has been hobbled, and defenses figured out that Randall Cobb is on the roster (and is good).  Green Bay is really a warm weather team -- lots of timing routes, not much of a running game, defense built to protect a big lead -- which is weird, because they play on the Frozen Tundra.  I checked the weather for Green Bay on Sunday and it's supposed to be in the 40s at kickoff with no precipitation and a very mild wind.  That's good enough for me.  I don't trust the Patriots in Miami in December.  I don't care that they've won their last three games against cupcakes by a combined score of like 815-31, they're shaky on the road and the Dolphins have their number in December.  Still gonna pick the Pats, of course, just not confident enough in them to trust them with my Lock.

Lock of the Week (Weidman):  Green Bay over Minnesota 24-17

 

Lock of the Week (Forty): Houston over Tennessee 32-21 (Take Houston at 5.5 and the over of 47.) I kicked myself for not picking Jacksonville last week, because they had played strong the past few weeks and were home against an MIA Tennessee team. I let the records get to me. Here they shouldn't let me down as the Texans are 5-0 at home and the Titans are just 2-3 on the road. The Texans could be going into coasting mode, but they've just got too much talent to drop one at home against a sub-.500 club. What Houston has shown the past few weeks is their ability to turn it on when they need to and win games. So, this could be tighter than expected, but the Texans should pull it out. I almost went with Baltimore over Pittsburgh for the lock, but I didn't want Weidman and Keller to drive to Ohio and kick my rear.

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Walking Wounded: Steelers at Browns Preview

I picked the Steelers in this week's Pick Em because I think that they have just enough to beat the Browns.  I don't think it's going to be a blowout.  I think it's going to be a close, ugly game, though I don't know that it's going to be low scoring.  It has all the hallmarks of a game that should be low scoring, so that's probably why it won't be.

The Browns are better and they are headed in the right direction, but they're still a bad team.  They have a rookie quarterback and Dick LeBeau tends to destroy rookie quarterbacks (see: Griffin, Robert III).  Charlie Batch isn't great and his arm belongs in the Smithsonian, but the one thing he can still do is start a game or two and beat bad teams.  He did it last year when the Steelers needed a win over the hapless Rams and I think he can do it again this year.

He'll take care of the ball, Todd Haley will call a conservative game on offense, and the defense should be able to confuse and confound Brandon Weeden enough that Cleveland won't be able to run away with the game.

Now, the big thing that concerns me is Trent Richardson.  He's finally healthy -- he had a rib issue for a number games earlier in the season, but didn't miss any time -- he runs hard, and he can catch passes out of the backfield.  He's basically a bigger, slower Ray Rice.  The Steelers were able to mostly contain Rice on Sunday night and I think they'll be able to do the same against Richardson.  They just need to make sure that they wrap him up and bring him to the ground.  The tackling has been superb thus far this season, but Richardson is incredibly difficult to bring down.  He has live feet and a powerful upper body, so arm tackles aren't going to cut it.  They need to square up and fire into his mid-section, otherwise he's going to bounce off defenders and make this game a nightmare to watch.

Since I didn't write a review of the loss to the hated Ravens, I'm going to add a few personnel notes in here.

First of all, if Leftwich hurt his ribs in the first quarter and was ineffective -- and he was -- then Batch needs to go into the game.  They have Batch on the roster to go into the game in emergency situations like that.  That's the whole reason to have him on the team.  If you don't trust him to go into that situation, then don't have him on the roster.  If you don't trust him to back up Leftwich when Ben Roethlisberger is hurt, don't have him on the roster.  They signed Brian Hoyer earlier this week.  Hoyer was Tom Brady's back up in New England for the past three seasons, but they eventually lost faith in him and cut him on August 31st.  He's been available since that date.  If they didn't trust Batch to come in and Hoyer was available before the Baltimore game, why didn't they just sign him last week?  Why not sign him, then he has another week of practice under his belt and can potentially start against the Browns this week?

Ultimately, I blame Mike Tomlin for the loss against Baltimore.  He kept an injured Leftwich in the game when Batch couldn't have been any worse.  Then he claimed that Leftwich got hurt at some point in the fourth quarter, not the first quarter.  But... if Tomlin knew that Leftwich got hurt at some point during the game, why was he still in there to skip the ball 30 yards to Mike Wallace when Wallace was 50 yards away.  Batch couldn't have made that throw, either, but Leftwich also shouldn't have been in the position to need to make that throw.

Then you have the fact that they called two timeouts in the red zone to set up a really complicated passing play on third and two that ended up failing.  If they scored there, I can't guarantee that they would've won, but they would've at least had the lead.  You don't need to call two timeouts to know to hand the ball to Jonathan Dwyer (or Rashard Mendenhall) twice.  If the staff didn't trust Leftwich in that situation and needed to make sure they had just the right play called, then they should've played it safe and just handed the ball off.

I have a severe man-crush on Tomlin and I can't stay mad at him, but I have to say Sunday night's loss is on him.  Obviously, we need to continue to evaluate and press on.  Hopefully, we can stack some wins.  It's a process.

Oh, hey, Plax is back in town!  I think he can help out in the red zone, but that's about it.  Given the fact that he's only valuable in the red zone and opponents know this, that means they're going to take him away in the only situation where he's valuable.  Maybe that will open things up for the other guys -- like Heath and Paulson especially -- but I don't think that adds enough value to the team to offset all the negatives that Plax brings to the table.  When word came out that they signed Burress, a co-worker of mine IMed me and asked me what I thought about it.  I said, "I think it's great.  An old head case that gets hurt easily is exactly what this team needs."  Even though it was in text, he was able to pick up on the sarcasm.

Overall, this has been a very negative post, but I do believe there is a silver lining.  This is a team that excels in the face of adversity.  They play their best when their backs are against the wall and they feel as though nobody believes in them.  At that point, they circle the wagons and they trust the other guys in the locker room.  Tomlin is also at his best in these kinds of situations.

I think they can use that motivation to beat the Browns and possibly beat the Ravens.  They only need 3 or 4 more wins to secure a playoff spot, but the division title is probably out of reach at this point.  I think the season is far from over and I think there's a real possibility that they could get on a little roll, just in time for Roethlisberger or Leftwich to come back and lead them in the playoffs.

For this week, I say they win, but it isn't pretty.

Prediction:
Steelers 21, Browns 17

Pick Em Week 12

(For Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

Ah, Thanksgiving.  A magical time of the year built around gluttony, football and trampling people at Walmart for $5 off a Martha Stewart panini press.  If Super Bowl Sunday is the Christmas of the football world, Thanksgiving is the...well... Thanksgiving of the football world.  It's the one time of year I won't bitch about football on Thursday (except that the marquee game is the Pats and Jets) and really laugh at people who forget to set their fantasy lineups.

We had one of our best weeks ever last week.  We all got bamboozled by the Jets game, so we won't talk about that.  Other than that, there were only a couple of individual picks that were wrong.  Take that 9-year old kid who probably still beat us!

So, as is tradition, it looks like we're going to follow up a good week with several big swing games.  This week, Forty will either pretty much clinch the season, or fall way back (That's been said far too often this season.)  Actually, I think this pick 'em's gonna come straight down to the wire.

A note on the Steelers (because this is Steelers N'At, not NFL N'At): There's been a lot of talk about how screwed the Steelers are right now.  AB's out, Troy's possibly out, I'm sure there's a running back hurt somewhere and Ben, Leftwich and Cotchery are all out with the same injury.  (Note to self: Trademark "Steeler's BBQ Rib Sauce) We're on our third-string, should-just-be-a-coach QB, Dennis Dixon said he'd rather be on the Ravens practice squad than get a game check this week, and Plax is back in town...but even with all that, I'd still take the Steelers over the Browns this week. Hell, I'd take the Power over the Browns this week, and they don't have a quarterback, either.

Batch is 5-2 as a starter for the Black N Gold.  We're depleted in key areas, but we're not out in those areas.  Hell, even if a meteor strikes midfield, Heath can still go in and throw to Plax.  It's not the end of the world.  If the Brownies made it to Thanksgiving with hope left for the season, then it'd be the end of the world.

******Keller's Note: Forty picked Washington over Dallas, but we put it in wrong.  His pick will be reflected in the standings, but we didn't have time to fix the graphic. Happy Thanksgiving*****



Lock of the Week (Keller): Denver over Kansas City (solid, but unspectacular cover; at 27-10, take the Broncos and the Under): Dear Jesus, I almost broke down and took the Bengals as my Lock.  They're at home, Oakland is awful, they looked good enough against the Chiefs last week... just couldn't bring myself to do it.  Besides, Kansas City is awful-er, Denver's on a roll, and they've been forcing a ton of turnovers while the Chiefs have been giving them out like candy from a dark van with no windows.  It's usually really tough to go into Arrowhead and get a win, but not this season.  I think the Broncos take care of business and cover.

Lock of the Week (Weidman): Denver over Kansas City (Cover, over.)
With respect to Mr. Hayhurst below - and his points are very valid - I gotta take this game for the lock.  Peyton has been known to hold back when he's looking solidly at the post season, but not this year.  The Colts made a bold choice to cut him when he probably had a few years left in the tank to take The Next Big Thing (and I think Luck's going to mature into something impressive that will make people forget this season), but I doubt that Peyton "If you have a product, I'll sell it" Manning sees it that way.  He wants to prove everyone wrong and put on another ring.  That means not holding back, even against a JV team like KC.

Lock of the Week (Forty): Cincinnati over Oakland (31-17. The Bengals should be able to cover eight and look for the ball to be thrown around a lot, so go with the over.)Denver over Kansas City looks like the safe bet, but the Broncos could take a week off after pretty much clinching the west, even against a division rival. The Bengals, after a mid-season slide, are peaking at the right time and are hungry to get back into the playoff picture. The Raiders have lost three straight and their last two wins were against the only teams in the NFL possibly worst than they are, the Chiefs and Jaguars. Lets just look at points here. In the Bengals last two wins they've put 28 or more on the board while holding opponents to under two touchdowns. In their last three losses, Oakland has been able to score, but the defense has allowed 38 points or more. Here's the intangible: Carson Palmer. He's played well all year and you would think he would want to show up his former team, but that doesn't mean anything to his teammates. A lot of Bengals players remember Palmer basically being a crybaby and asking to be traded when the chips were down, then threatening to retire. They would like nothing better than to cram the ball down his throat. The Bengals are just way more motivated to get the win against a bad team. 

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Hate to Do This: Hated Ravens at Steelers Preview

I hate the hated Ravens so much that I refer to them as "the hated Ravens."  I still hate Brian Billick and he hasn't coached for the team in like five years.  I hate Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and even Elvis Grbac (mostly because of the weird name, but he did play for Baltimore for a season).  I hate the hated Ravens so much that they almost made me hate Rod Woodson.

But, there's one thing that I hate more than the hated Ravens: Jay Cutler's face.  Maybe there's two things.  Jay Cutler's face and picking the hated Ravens to beat the Steelers.  I already went on record picking them in this week's Pick Em, but I wanted to go on record here and explain how much picking Baltimore to win Sunday night sucked.

I think the hated Ravens are going to win and I hate saying that.

Now I'm going to talk about what the Steelers need to do to win.  It's not as impossible as it might seem.

Consider the following:

1. The Steelers are 4-0 at home (sure, they haven't beaten any good teams there yet, but they're undefeated.)
2. Baltimore is 2-2 on the road and their two road wins are against the Chiefs (with a Orioles-Royals score of 9-6) and the Browns (25-15).
3. The Unibrow sucks on the road this season.  Home numbers: 113-173-1612-10-3-108.3.  Road numbers: 71-136-719-3-4-62.7.  He gains 45 quarterback rating points and four yards per attempt at home.  Or, more importantly, he loses four yards an attempt and 45 rating points on the road.
4. For the first time in recent memory, the hated Ravens aren't defending the run well.  They rank 26th in the league in yards allowed, giving up 132 rushing yards a game.
5. In four home games, the Steelers have given up an average of 12.3 points per game.

Those are all good trends, because the Steelers need to do the following things to win the game:

1. Avoid getting off to a slow start.
2. Not turn the ball over.
3. Make it a low scoring game.
4. Run the ball effectively and frequently.

Trouble is, I think they'll only be able to accomplish #2.  They've done an exceptional job taking care of the ball thus far this season and I think that they'll err on the side of caution on offense -- no high risk pass plays, running backs keep both hands on the ball.  But, that's only one of the four things they need to do to win.

I think they'll get off to a slow start.  The hated Ravens know the Steelers almost as well as they know themselves.  They know that this team can't come back from a big deficit without Ben Roethlisberger.  Baltimore's primary objective will be to get off to a fast start and get the Steelers off balance as quickly as possible.

Byron Leftwich won't be as bad as he was against the Chiefs.  He'll have a full week of practice under his belt for this game and Todd Haley will put together a game plan that works with Leftwich's strengths.  There has been a lot of chatter about the fact that Leftwich is a bad fit for Haley's offense.  But, the fact of the matter is that Haley designed this year's offense -- and last week's game plan -- around Ben Roethlisberger and the other personnel the Steelers have on the roster.  When they hired him as offensive coordinator, I wrote about the fact that he's a personnel guy, not a system guy.  When he had Kurt Warner and a bunch of great receivers in Arizona, he called a lot of passes.  When he had Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones in Kansas City, he called a lot of runs.  When he realized that the Steelers had a bunch of explosive playmakers at receiver and an offensive line that had trouble protecting its quarterback, he called a lot of quick timing passes and screens.  When Roethlisberger Monday night's game, they already had the game plan installed and he couldn't start calling stuff that was completely different than what they had practiced all week.  On Sunday night, his game plan will be optimized to make the most of what Leftwich brings to the table.  The problem there is that it's not just Leftwich.

Antonio Brown will probably miss this game.  Rashard Mendenhall will probably start after a long layoff.  The offensive line still has pass protection issue.  There are a lot of moving parts that are either unavailable or rusty.  Couple that with the fact that Baltimore will want to do whatever they can to start fast and shut the Steelers down early and you can see how it's hard to imagine that they'll avoid getting off to slow start.

I think that they can keep the game low scoring even if they get off to a slow start, but I don't think that means they'll win.  If they fall behind 14-0 or 10-0, they'll eventually rally, but I think they'll fall short.

Running the ball effectively and frequently is the last thing on the list, but it's also the most important.  It affects whether or not they'll be able to accomplish #1 and #4.  If they start out running the ball well, that takes the early pressure off Leftwich.  If they keep running the ball well, that helps keep the ball away from Unibrow and the ever-deadly Ray Rice.  It also sets up the play action passing game, which will slow down the pass rush of the hated Ravens and make things easier on Leftwich.

But... the Ravens know all this, which is why they'll stack the box, look to stop the run at all costs, and force Leftwich to beat them.  They'll also bring a lot of extra defenders on the blitz when Haley does call a pass, knowing that they don't have the personnel to cover the Steelers receivers for more than three seconds. 

Most of the pressure will come up the middle, since Leftwich doesn't have the mobility to break outside the tackle box and extend the play like Roethlisberger does.  That's a problem because the interior linemen -- though they've done an exceptional job blowing up big holes between the tackles in the running game -- have had some serious issues in pass protection.

So... if the Steelers can run the ball well out of the gate and if they don't turn the ball over and if the hated Ravens defense doesn't embed Leftwich into the Heinz Field turf in the first half and if they can keep Ray Rice contained, they'll be able to win a close game. 

And, while I'm asking for stuff, I'd like a pony.

Prediction:
Hated Ravens 17, Steelers 10

Pick Em Week 11

 (For Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

A freaking tie?  I lost a lock on a tie?  Are you &%*#'n kidding me???

Then my sister-in-law had to inform me today that the 9 year-old son of one of her co-workers picked perfectly two weeks this season?

I don't care.  Forty still sucks.

So, this week is another super boring one where we all picked along the same lines until the final two games.  Disclaimer:  I picked the Steelers because I needed to take a risk, and I just couldn't pick the Ravens.  In all likelihood, however, the dirty birds are going to win.  They were the stronger team coming into this week, and the Steelers have some critical injuries.  The smart bet would be to take them unless, like me, you need the risky bet to win back some ground.



Lock of the Week (Keller): Houston over Jacksonville (if the Colts can beat the Jags in Jacksonville by 17, the Texans can beat them in Houston by at least that much, and take the over if it’s 44 or less): 38-10.  I think the Jaguars have officially replaced the Browns as “team that I will pick against, regardless of who they’re playing.”  This week, they happen to be playing a very talented, very confident, very motivated Texans team in Houston.  If you can tease this against another spread or point total, I’d go higher than 17.  I would go as high as 24, but probably not any higher than that, because Houston might decide to have mercy on the hapless Jags.  Thing is, you don’t want to make the over/under any higher, because Jacksonville isn’t going to score a lot of points and, again, the Texans might be merciful.  Even if I wasn’t afraid of dipping into the Patriots Lock well too much, I’d still take Houston.  They’re about as Lockable a Lock as you can lock.  (That sounds cooler when I say it in my head, so I’m keeping it there.)

Lock of the Week (Weidman): What Keller said
If the Chiefs didn't exist, the Jags would be the worst team in the NFL, no question.  Houston is also at home after good road win.  Take the Texans all day long.

Lock of the Week (Forty): Houston over Jacksonville 27-7 (Take the under because the Jags aren't going to put up many points.)  There's only one double digit point spread in the early lines this week and that's Houston at home favored by 15.5 over Jacksonville. Houston showed last Sunday night that they were ready for prime time by handling the Bears on their own sloppy field. The Jags are probably considered the worst team in the NFL right now, after the Chiefs did show some life against the Steelers last week. Maurice Jones-Drew still being out puts more pressure on Blaine Gabbert who is still nursing a bad shoulder to his non-throwing arm. He'll probably have to throw it a ton here and look for him to get knocked around big time. In week two, the Texans easily beat the Jags at home 27-7 and just to be cute, I'm predicting the same score here. 

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode."  A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team.  Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Good News and Bad News: Chiefs at Steelers

At the end of regulation, Weidman turned to me and we had the following conversation.

Weidman: Here's what's going to happen: Chiefs win the toss, they elect to receive, then they finally play like the Chiefs and turn the ball over.  Suisham wins it with a field goal.

Me: Turnover could also be a pick six.  That also works.

Weidman: No.  Suisham needs to win it.  That's what needs to happen.

Me: OK, then.  That works, too.

The game played out exactly as Weidman had foreseen it.  That was the coolest thing that happened last night.

Sure, the Steelers won, which was cool.  But, it was cool like finding out that the girl you hooked up with at the bar last month isn't pregnant.  Or cool like discovering that the Check Engine light in your car came on because it had been more than six months since your last oil change.  It's more a feeling of relief than anything.

Good news first:

1. A win is a win.  Lest you forget, I am always here to point that fact out, especially after an especially ugly victory.
2. The Steelers committed fewer penalties and allowed fewer sacks than Kansas City.  I don't care if the Chiefs are 1-7, that's still something that's good to keep track of, especially this season.
3. Even though the defense didn't force turnovers in the quantities we expected, they got one when it really mattered.
4. You can talk all you want about how the defense choked and allowed a 4th and 15 conversion that led to Kansas City tying the game, but they also held Matt Cassel to a 46 quarterback rating and held Jamaal Charles in check in the second half.  The game could've gotten out of hand early in the first or midway through the third, but the defense didn't allow that to happen.
5. Lawrence Timmons is having himself one hell of a season.
6. Looks like Ben Roethlisberger isn't done for the season, which is kind of what I expected to hear this morning after watching his right arm dangle at his side as he left the field last night.

Bad News:

1. They didn't run the ball effectively.  That allowed the secondary to play tight on the Steelers receivers, which allowed the cornerbacks to fill in hard in run support, which led to even less effective running.  I think it was a combination of a strong effort by the Chiefs defensive line, a lackluster performance by the interior of the Steeler offensive line, and the fact that Mike Tomlin benched Isaac Redman after he fumbled in the first quarter.  Redman came back, but neither he nor Jonathan Dwyer was able to find a rhythm.  It was a little bit of all those factors, but deciding to take Redman out was the only thing that could really be controlled.  I think it held the running game back, but I might also just be mad because Redman's on my fantasy team and I needed another big game out of him.
2. Jon Gruden was droning on about the fact that the Chiefs were carving the left side of the Steeler defense up in the run game.  At least he was in the first half, when they were.  In the second half, when Ziggy Hood started staying in his lanes and engaging two blockers by shooting the gap like he's supposed to, Gruden didn't mention why they were no longer having success on that side.  Hood didn't suddenly forget what he was supposed to do, he's just inconsistent.  Gap discipline and tackling fundamentals had been two strong areas for the defense the last month.  In the first half, they weren't there, which is part of the reason Kansas City jumped to a 10-0 lead. Again, not taking anything away from the Chiefs offensive line, but that's part of the reason they were successful.
3. With five minutes remaining in the third quarter, Byron Leftwich decided he wanted to throw a pass.  He's still winding up.  Dear God, it takes forever for that man to throw a football.  With the way the protection has been against quality pass rushers, that's going to be an issue.  Oh, hey, look at that!  They play the hated Ravens next week.
4. They're going to have trouble throwing the ball and running the ball without Roethlisberger in the line-up, as evidenced by their production on offense in the second half.
5. One turnover forced in 4+ quarters, zero turnovers forced in regulation, against one of the most generous offenses in the history of the NFL.
6. Really, I could nit pick about a dozen or so different things, but the important thing is that the Chiefs managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and the Steelers got a win.

Roethlisberger hurt his shoulder and no one -- not even the doctors, because that's what tests and MRIs are for -- knows for sure how bad it is and how long he's going to be out.  It doesn't look like something that could land him on injured reserve, but it's definitely not a minor injury and could be a nagging issue (like Troy's calf this season and Woodley's hamstring last season).

As much as I like to kid Leftwich for taking 35 minutes to wind up and throw a pass and Charlie Batch for being 100 years old, they're not bad quarterbacks.  Earlier today, I was talking to a couple of guys I work with and I described Leftwich as "about average" and Batch as "not awesome."  What exactly that means is up for interpretation (hi there, Comments section!), but there's no getting around this fact: Neither of those guys is anywhere near as good as Ben Roethlisberger.

They'll be able to win some games with Leftwich or Batch under center -- they may, possibly, even be able to split with Baltimore -- but they're not winning the division with those guys and they're definitely not making a playoff run without Roethlisberger.

Basically, the really bad news is that we all just have to wait and see just how bad Ben's shoulder is hurt and how long it will take for him to come back.

It's Jamal the Rage: Chiefs at Steelers Preview

Here's the thing: The Steelers need to win this game and they absolutely should win this game.  I went with a horrible, pun-laden title for this post, because there's not a whole lot to say.

The Kansas City Chiefs are an awful, awful team.  We're eight games into the season and they haven't had a lead in regulation yet.  Both of their quarterbacks have been concussed at some point this year.  Jamaal Charles, who was supposed to be a superstar coming off an ACL injury, has been largely underwhelming.  Dwayne Bowe is in a contract year and he's projected to end up with 90 catches for a little over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns.  They just cut cornerback Stanford Routt after signing him to a long term deal in the offseason.  Opposing quarterbacks have a 106.3 passer rating against them.  They have a -20 turnover differential and a -107 point differential.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are certainly trending up.  The offensive line is coming together, the defense is playing tough and disciplined, and special teams is starting to turn the corner.

All this makes it look like Monday night's game is going to be a blowout.  While I hope that happens -- I could always go for a good blowout -- I have a sinking "Tyler Palko Game" feeling about this one.

The Steelers tend to play down to the level of competition.  Many of the guys on Kansas City's defense that were on the roster last year are on the roster this year.  The same defensive backs that were able to jam the Steelers receivers at the line of scrimmage, then turn and run with them down the field last season, are still on the roster.  Last season, the Steelers couldn't get anything going on the ground, then tried to pass their way out of it.  When that failed, they hung on for dear life and narrowly defeated a Chiefs team that started Tyler Palko at quarterback.

Despite all that, I still think the Steelers are going to roll on Monday.

1. They shouldn't struggle running the ball, which should give them balance on offense.  It will also give them the ability to neutralize Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, who are the only two guys they have to fear when Ben Roethlisberger drops back to pass.
2. Since Bruce Arians is not calling the plays, the "dink and dunk" passes that Todd Haley has been calling should make it tough for Kansas City to pressure Roethlisberger and help him get into a rhythm early.
3. Dwayne Bowe does not scare me and I think Ike Taylor matches up with him very well.  I don't think Bowe is going to win this game for the Chiefs.
4. Jamaal Charles is the wild card.  He could take over the game like he did in New Orleans earlier this season and pull Kansas City out of Suckville.  However, I don't see that happening.  He's not getting the ball as much as he used to and, even when he has gotten the ball, he hasn't done much with the opportunities.

Even if Charles does explode on Monday night, I think the Steelers will be able to score enough to offset that.  Actually, considering the fact that I'm starting Charles on two of my fantasy teams, him having a huge game wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.  Again, even if he does, I don't think the Chiefs have enough to win at Heinz Field.

They have too much to overcome.  Now, in last week's preview, I said that the Steelers had too much to overcome to beat the Giants (facing a really good team, on the road, emotional situation, they'd been under performing on the road), and the Steelers ended up winning.  This situation is different, though, because Kansas City would need to overcome the fact that they're just not very good.  That's too much for any team to overcome in a normal situation, nonetheless playing on the road against a team that's on a roll like the Steelers, who will be pumped up in prime time in front of a home crowd.

But... something like 150 yards and two touchdowns for Charles?  I think that would be just fine.

Prediction:

Steelers 34, Chiefs 17