We are fully into garbage time of the season. Well, except for our division, but then, our division is mostly garbage, so there's that. I could recap what I said last week about teams that don't care, teams that care too much and spoilers...but you'll see below that Forty already did that in his lock section.
For a brief note on the Steelers: Keller has some wishful thinking going on, I think. I know that Steelers/Cowboys runs deep in him, and he really needs a win in order to function, but I just don't see it. If the Steelers get it up for their last two (divisional) games, they're in the post-season no matter what happens this weekend. I haven't seen anything out of the Steelers this season that says they'll play hard against an no-matter team, especially when they know they're going to rock hard the next week in anger. I also haven't seen the Steelers dig down to their "have to" yet this season. They've won by the same factor that will be the only thing to get them into the playoffs: luck.
Speaking of Stupid Forty (Hash tag it, baby. #StupidForty), he's got this bad boy all but locked up. If he fails now, he has no one to blame but himself. Without further ado, here's the pics.
Lock of the Week (Keller): Texans over Colts (the line is a bit steep at -9, but definitely take the over at 48) Texans 34, Colts 27.
Pretty slim pickings here for Locks, with Houston currently holding the biggest line. I think that Lions-Cardinals line might move up a bit throughout the course of the week, but I don't think it gets higher than 7. This line might creep down to 7 or 6.5 at some point, so jump on 6.5 and the over if that happens. I don't think there's a way that the Texans drop this one: They're at home, they have a chance to clinch the division, and Andrew Luck has been very average on the road this season. Top it off with the fact that Houston got embarrassed in prime time this week (stupid Forty, stupid Weidman), remembering they smoked the hated Ravens the week after getting blown out by the Packers earlier this season on a Sunday night, and I'd say this is as much of a Lock as we're gonna get in Week 15.
Lock of the Week (Weidman): Detroit over Steelers West 21-17 (I think this game will be close-ish, so take the under)
In honor of my season of Pick 'Em being over, I figured I'd pick a lock between two teams in the same situation. Aside from one recent year, I just can't bring myself to pick the Cards often. We're almost at the end, and they still haven't figured out the whole QBing thing. Detroit's not much better of a team, but they're still better.
Lock of the Week (Forty): New England over San Francisco 34-14 (My score is probably way off from what the ‘experts’ are saying, but the Pats have been so strong at home. Take the Pats with the points and the over.)
There are no sure Locks in my mind this week. This late in the season, you have several teams who have clinched what they need to and are taking their foot off the gas. You also have other teams struggling to make a playoff spot and it’s hard to say who will rise to the top, the Steelers vs. the Cowboys are a prime example. Then you have a bunch of garbage games that nobody cares about.
Not even the players’ mothers are going to watch Oakland and Kansas City. Hell, probably the most interesting story this week is if the Redskins can continue their role without RGIII against a surging, Browns squad.
This is probably the only time this season I’ll have two division leaders in my Lock. The Patriots have been dominant at home in the second half of the season. The past two home games saw them score 42 points on the Texans and 59 on the Colts, both teams with winning records. The 49ers have been solid on the road, but dropped their last road game to division rival St. Louis. Pats coach Bill Belichick loves to stick it to a young quarterback (reference Luck, Andrew) and should have his guys all over Colin Kaepernick. After beating the Texans, Belichick can sense the overall number one seed in his grasp, giving the Pats home field advantage throughout the playoffs. He wants that, oh yes he does.
Meet the "Experts":
Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.
"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.
Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.
No comments:
Post a Comment