Pick Em Week 17

(For Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

#StupidForty

Not much more needs to be said heading into this week.  Stupid, stupid Forty  Ah well, there's always next year, right?  One swing game this week, and that's me in the Cincy/Baltimore game.  I honestly think that Cincy is going to choke after knocking us out of the playoffs as well as get cocky after reaching the post-season two years in a row for the first time in 30 years.  Which really puts things in perspective.  I gave that a lot of thought after spending the holidays in Eagles country and came to a conclusion:

Steelers fans are really, really spoiled.

The Bungles are jumping for joy after getting there two years in a row.  The Eagles fans have been enduring years of up and down torment.  Some fans support a team that's never even gone to the Super Bowl.  Yet, we in Steelers country - who rarely have to endure two years in a row not going to the post season - are crying in our beers after this bummer of a season.  I've even heard people calling for Tomlin to get fired.

Calm down, people.  It's not the end of the world - it just feels like it right now.  Simply take this feeling, put it in a box, look at it for a moment - realizing that this is how Cleveland fans feel all the time - and just hold on to the fact that Power season is right around the corner.






Lock of the Week (Keller): San Francisco over Arizona (I think that this one could get ugly, with Jim Harbaugh running up the score to impress the poll voters, so take the points and the over): 42-14. 

Jim Harbaugh is mad that his team got smoked in Seattle last week and the 49ers will have a shot at the #2 seed in the NFC.  They kick off at the same time as the Packers, but Harbaugh will make sure that there is no scoreboard watching.  He knows that he can win some points in the coach's poll and improve his BCS ranking with a big win on Sunday.

Seriously, though, San Francisco will play angry and Steelers West has nothing left to play for, which means BIG advantage 49ers.

Lock of the Week (Weidman): San Fran over Arizona (Hahahahahahahahahahahaha, yeah, Points and Over):  
Holy baked beans with marshmallows, 16.5 favorites?  How can I not take that line?  AZ is basically the Honey Badger right now, and not in a good way.  This is the point where they return to the days of old where they aren't even aware that the league ever expanded to a 16 game season.  Nothing to play for, nothing left in the tank, and not an ounce of give-a-f-   Er, I'm saying they are out of it.  Meanwhile, they're playing against someone who likes to run up the score.  Also, #StupidForty.

Lock of the Week (Forty): Denver over Kansas City 28-10 (The Broncos are favored by 17, that's just crazy. However, I it's in the realm of possibility and with a spread that high you probably want to take the 42 over.)

I hate to take the same Lock team two weeks in a row, but Denver is the best team with something left to play for against the worst opponent. If Denver wins, they get the number two playoff spot. If they win and Houston loses to the Colts (very possible) the Broncos get the top playoff seed. There's a big difference between a week of rest and two games at home compared to no rest and possibly having to win two on the road to get to the Super Bowl. Denver's going to play everybody and open a huge lead, then coast in the second half. The Chiefs will let them, because what do they have to play for? Pride is even out the door for them at this woeful point. Might as well go all in on getting the top draft pick.

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode."  A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team.  Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.


Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Pick Em Week 16

(For Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

Well, the good news and bad news is that the playoffs start for the Steelers this Sunday.  One and done is a possibility both of these last two weeks, and that's kind of how the Steelers like it.  If Hines Ward were still around, he'd be explaining to us right now how everyone's against us, no one thinks we can make it, and we're in it for ourselves.

I don't think it's going to work worth a damn, but it's a nice thought to get us through the end of the season.  Right now, the Steelers are doing a magnificent impression of pretty much every episode of VH1's Behind the Music and team continuity has gone right out the window.  Whether or not Haley and Roethlisberger really are setting up a power struggle, Big Ben certainly wants us to think it.  Our receivers are dropping everything that comes their way and blaming everyone but themselves.  Tomlin has reached total incomprehensibly incoherent, while trying to pretend that everything's just fine and the band is going on their scheduled January tour.

That being said, Keller and I both picked them Stillers because they're going to win at least one of these last two weeks.  Besides, #StupidForty is up by 6 games and we gotta do something.  If the gods are smiling, Forty will drop all three swing games and his lock, and Keller and I will only be two games back in the final week.

I'd also like a new bike and a Nerf N-Strike Raider Rapid Fire Dart Blaster, Santa.



Lock of the Week (Keller): Green Bay over Tennessee (take the points and the over): 38-17.

Boy, there are a lot of great options, including the Greatriots favored by two touchdowns on the road.  I think that the Broncos will keep it rolling, but there's something about the Browns at this time of year, with everyone fighting to keep their jobs, that has just enough of a spoilery quality to it to keep me away.  The Packers are still fighting for a first round bye, Aaron Rodgers is still fighting to prove any naysayers wrong because he thinks they still exist, and Green Bay as a team is fighting to remind everyone that they were 15-1 last year and may not be too shabby.  I watched the Packers-Bears game on Sunday and it wasn't as close as the score would indicate.  I watched Jets-Titans on Monday night football and wish I could have those three hours of my life back.  Tennessee needed luck and a 94 yard touchdown to beat a horrible, horrible Jets team.  Take the Packers all the way to the bank and thank me later.

Lock of the Week (Weidman): New England over Jacksonville (Take the points, but the over might be pushing it): 

Okay, I think Peyton's a really safe bet, but #StupidForty is going with him, and I need to have some hope.  Also, RAHDGERS! is the man....but I gotta go with Brady.  He lead my Crafton Cripplers to their first ever Fantasy Football Championship, so I gotta back my QB.  Plus, the Pats got humiliated last week and they don't tend to let that stand.

Lock of the Week (Forty): Denver over Cleveland 34-17 (Denver's been blowing people out the last few weeks and they're at home. Take the 13 point spread and the over 44.)

I was dead wrong last week in thinking Baltimore would wake up and Denver wold lighten up. Thanks to the 49ers shocking the Patriots at home, the Broncos still have something very important to play for this late in the year. Since New England holds the tie breaker over Denver, they need to pretty much win out in order to get a first round playoff bye. No team is hotter than Denver right now, winners of nine straight. I like to look at scores and Denver has usually been scoring over 30 while holding opponents to the mid-20s or lower. Cleveland is still a team with fight in them, but they're just way overmatched here and too young to surprise a veteran Broncos team, led by Peyton Manning.
 

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode."  A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team.  Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.


Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Pick Em Week 15

(For Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

We are fully into garbage time of the season.  Well, except for our division, but then, our division is mostly garbage, so there's that.  I could recap what I said last week about teams that don't care, teams that care too much and spoilers...but you'll see below that Forty already did that in his lock section.

For a brief note on the Steelers: Keller has some wishful thinking going on, I think.  I know that Steelers/Cowboys runs deep in him, and he really needs a win in order to function, but I just don't see it.  If the Steelers get it up for their last two (divisional) games, they're in the post-season no matter what happens this weekend.  I haven't seen anything out of the Steelers this season that says they'll play hard against an no-matter team, especially when they know they're going to rock hard the next week in anger.  I also haven't seen the Steelers dig down to their "have to" yet this season.  They've won by the same factor that will be the only thing to get them into the playoffs:  luck.

Speaking of Stupid Forty (Hash tag it, baby.  #StupidForty), he's got this bad boy all but locked up.  If he fails now, he has no one to blame but himself.  Without further ado, here's the pics.



Lock of the Week (Keller): Texans over Colts (the line is a bit steep at -9, but definitely take the over at 48) Texans 34, Colts 27.

Pretty slim pickings here for Locks, with Houston currently holding the biggest line.  I think that Lions-Cardinals line might move up a bit throughout the course of the week, but I don't think it gets higher than 7.  This line might creep down to 7 or 6.5 at some point, so jump on 6.5 and the over if that happens.  I don't think there's a way that the Texans drop this one: They're at home, they have a chance to clinch the division, and Andrew Luck has been very average on the road this season.  Top it off with the fact that Houston got embarrassed in prime time this week (stupid Forty, stupid Weidman), remembering they smoked the hated Ravens the week after getting blown out by the Packers earlier this season on a Sunday night, and I'd say this is as much of a Lock as we're gonna get in Week 15.

Lock of the Week (Weidman): Detroit over Steelers West 21-17 (I think this game will be close-ish, so take the under)

In honor of my season of Pick 'Em being over, I figured I'd pick a lock between two teams in the same situation.  Aside from one recent year, I just can't bring myself to pick the Cards often.  We're almost at the end, and they still haven't figured out the whole QBing thing.  Detroit's not much better of a team, but they're still better.

Lock of the Week (Forty): New England over San Francisco 34-14 (My score is probably way off from what the ‘experts’ are saying, but the Pats have been so strong at home. Take the Pats with the points and the over.)

There are no sure Locks in my mind this week. This late in the season, you have several teams who have clinched what they need to and are taking their foot off the gas. You also have other teams struggling to make a playoff spot and it’s hard to say who will rise to the top, the Steelers vs. the Cowboys are a prime example. Then you have a bunch of garbage games that nobody cares about.

Not even the players’ mothers are going to watch Oakland and Kansas City. Hell, probably the most interesting story this week is if the Redskins can continue their role without RGIII against a surging, Browns squad.

This is probably the only time this season I’ll have two division leaders in my Lock. The Patriots have been dominant at home in the second half of the season. The past two home games saw them score 42 points on the Texans and 59 on the Colts, both teams with winning records. The 49ers have been solid on the road, but dropped their last road game to division rival St. Louis. Pats coach Bill Belichick loves to stick it to a young quarterback (reference Luck, Andrew) and should have his guys all over Colin Kaepernick. After beating the Texans, Belichick can sense the overall number one seed in his grasp, giving the Pats home field advantage throughout the playoffs. He wants that, oh yes he does.

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode."  A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team.  Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.


Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Pick Em Week 14

(For Pick 'Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

 Are we really this close to the end of the season already?  Is it really December?  Have I really not started my Christmas shopping yet?

Well, it's looking more and more like my Christmas gift to Forty will be a victory in Pick 'Em 2012, that's for sure.

We're at the part of the season where picking takes on a slightly different tactic.  Rather than looking at the match-ups and records themselves, you need to look more at the situation. Some teams <cough Steelers cough> are right on the bubble and need to play some smash-mouth down the stretch.  On the other end of the spectrum are teams like the Pats and Falcons who have locked their divisions and can lay back a bit if they want (which is why I can see Keller's pick below, I just don't agree with it.)  Finally, there's my favorite late-season disease:  Spoileritus.  The Browns haven't had much going for them over the years, but at least they know they always have that late-season possibility of ruining some team's season for them.


 

 

Lock of the Week (Keller): San Francisco over Miami (the 49ers should cover any spread under two touchdowns and take the under): 27-7

As shaky as the 49ers have been as a Lock (at Minnesota, that freakin' tie against the Rams), I trust them the most here.  There are two other double-digit spreads out there (Denver/Oakland and Seattle/Arizona), but those are both division games and anything can happen.  Plus which, the Broncos are on the road.  Jim Harbaugh's team is also money after a humiliating loss.  They smoked the Jets and Bills in back-to-back games after they lost to the Vikings and then tore Chicago apart the week after their tie with St. Louis.  I trust these guys to bounce back.  I don't care how many tattoos their quarterback has, '9ers all the way.

Lock of the Week (Weidman): Broncos over Raiders, cover and under.  21-7
Keller's right - it's a divisional game and anything can happen, but that doesn't change the fact that Denver is still the way better team.  "Spoileritus" concerns aside, I still don't see Peyton slacking off anymore now than I did a few weeks ago.  One concern for the Broncos is that Stokley is questionable for this game, however, they have plenty of depth without him - and the Raiders still suck.

Lock of the Week (Forty): Seattle over Arizona 28-12 (The odds on this is one of the weirdest I've seen. The under is an insanely low 34.5, but the spread is 11.5. As you can see with the numbers I play with below, the spread is super iffy, but with an over/under that low, you've got to take the over.)

Seattle is undefeated at home and Arizona only has one win on the road. That win came against the Patriots and the Cards were 4-0 before losing eight in a row, including only putting six points up against the Jets last week. Sure, they only put up seven points, but it was with a third string quarterback at the helm. The Jets only put seven on Seattle too, but the Seahawks responded with 28 points. Seattle has averaged about 24 points at home while the Cards have only done about 12 points on average in their road losses. What does this all mean? I figured I would just throw a bunch of numbers out there to befuddle you and hope Seattle's home mojo holds out.

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode."  A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team.  Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.


Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Pick Em Week 13

(For Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

Last week gave Forty a 5-game lead over me and a 3-game one over Keller.  This  might put him out of reach, unless the bottom drops out.  In the meantime, I'm gonna hit the ATM.

In regards to the Steelers last week, well, turnovers change games and-  Hey!  Did you hear that the Power picked up Alvin Ray Jackson?  Dude had almost as many interceptions last season with the Voodoo (14) by himself as the Power had as a whole team (17.)  That's huge!  Now we just need to re-sign PJ Berry and I'll feel a lot better about the season.  So, in conclusion, it was a really rough game for Steelers fans last week.



Lock of the Week (Keller): Green Bay over Minnesota (Packers are my lock, but I'm not 100% sure they can cover a nine point spread and I'm thinking take the Under): 24-17 The Packers are at home, they're probably more than a little miffed about the fact that they got stomped by the Giants on Sunday night, and the Vikings pass defense is awful.  It's possible that Aaron Rodgers goes off in this one, but he hasn't quite been the same since Greg Jennings got sidelined, Jordy Nelson has been hobbled, and defenses figured out that Randall Cobb is on the roster (and is good).  Green Bay is really a warm weather team -- lots of timing routes, not much of a running game, defense built to protect a big lead -- which is weird, because they play on the Frozen Tundra.  I checked the weather for Green Bay on Sunday and it's supposed to be in the 40s at kickoff with no precipitation and a very mild wind.  That's good enough for me.  I don't trust the Patriots in Miami in December.  I don't care that they've won their last three games against cupcakes by a combined score of like 815-31, they're shaky on the road and the Dolphins have their number in December.  Still gonna pick the Pats, of course, just not confident enough in them to trust them with my Lock.

Lock of the Week (Weidman):  Green Bay over Minnesota 24-17

 

Lock of the Week (Forty): Houston over Tennessee 32-21 (Take Houston at 5.5 and the over of 47.) I kicked myself for not picking Jacksonville last week, because they had played strong the past few weeks and were home against an MIA Tennessee team. I let the records get to me. Here they shouldn't let me down as the Texans are 5-0 at home and the Titans are just 2-3 on the road. The Texans could be going into coasting mode, but they've just got too much talent to drop one at home against a sub-.500 club. What Houston has shown the past few weeks is their ability to turn it on when they need to and win games. So, this could be tighter than expected, but the Texans should pull it out. I almost went with Baltimore over Pittsburgh for the lock, but I didn't want Weidman and Keller to drive to Ohio and kick my rear.

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Pick Em Week 12

(For Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

Ah, Thanksgiving.  A magical time of the year built around gluttony, football and trampling people at Walmart for $5 off a Martha Stewart panini press.  If Super Bowl Sunday is the Christmas of the football world, Thanksgiving is the...well... Thanksgiving of the football world.  It's the one time of year I won't bitch about football on Thursday (except that the marquee game is the Pats and Jets) and really laugh at people who forget to set their fantasy lineups.

We had one of our best weeks ever last week.  We all got bamboozled by the Jets game, so we won't talk about that.  Other than that, there were only a couple of individual picks that were wrong.  Take that 9-year old kid who probably still beat us!

So, as is tradition, it looks like we're going to follow up a good week with several big swing games.  This week, Forty will either pretty much clinch the season, or fall way back (That's been said far too often this season.)  Actually, I think this pick 'em's gonna come straight down to the wire.

A note on the Steelers (because this is Steelers N'At, not NFL N'At): There's been a lot of talk about how screwed the Steelers are right now.  AB's out, Troy's possibly out, I'm sure there's a running back hurt somewhere and Ben, Leftwich and Cotchery are all out with the same injury.  (Note to self: Trademark "Steeler's BBQ Rib Sauce) We're on our third-string, should-just-be-a-coach QB, Dennis Dixon said he'd rather be on the Ravens practice squad than get a game check this week, and Plax is back in town...but even with all that, I'd still take the Steelers over the Browns this week. Hell, I'd take the Power over the Browns this week, and they don't have a quarterback, either.

Batch is 5-2 as a starter for the Black N Gold.  We're depleted in key areas, but we're not out in those areas.  Hell, even if a meteor strikes midfield, Heath can still go in and throw to Plax.  It's not the end of the world.  If the Brownies made it to Thanksgiving with hope left for the season, then it'd be the end of the world.

******Keller's Note: Forty picked Washington over Dallas, but we put it in wrong.  His pick will be reflected in the standings, but we didn't have time to fix the graphic. Happy Thanksgiving*****



Lock of the Week (Keller): Denver over Kansas City (solid, but unspectacular cover; at 27-10, take the Broncos and the Under): Dear Jesus, I almost broke down and took the Bengals as my Lock.  They're at home, Oakland is awful, they looked good enough against the Chiefs last week... just couldn't bring myself to do it.  Besides, Kansas City is awful-er, Denver's on a roll, and they've been forcing a ton of turnovers while the Chiefs have been giving them out like candy from a dark van with no windows.  It's usually really tough to go into Arrowhead and get a win, but not this season.  I think the Broncos take care of business and cover.

Lock of the Week (Weidman): Denver over Kansas City (Cover, over.)
With respect to Mr. Hayhurst below - and his points are very valid - I gotta take this game for the lock.  Peyton has been known to hold back when he's looking solidly at the post season, but not this year.  The Colts made a bold choice to cut him when he probably had a few years left in the tank to take The Next Big Thing (and I think Luck's going to mature into something impressive that will make people forget this season), but I doubt that Peyton "If you have a product, I'll sell it" Manning sees it that way.  He wants to prove everyone wrong and put on another ring.  That means not holding back, even against a JV team like KC.

Lock of the Week (Forty): Cincinnati over Oakland (31-17. The Bengals should be able to cover eight and look for the ball to be thrown around a lot, so go with the over.)Denver over Kansas City looks like the safe bet, but the Broncos could take a week off after pretty much clinching the west, even against a division rival. The Bengals, after a mid-season slide, are peaking at the right time and are hungry to get back into the playoff picture. The Raiders have lost three straight and their last two wins were against the only teams in the NFL possibly worst than they are, the Chiefs and Jaguars. Lets just look at points here. In the Bengals last two wins they've put 28 or more on the board while holding opponents to under two touchdowns. In their last three losses, Oakland has been able to score, but the defense has allowed 38 points or more. Here's the intangible: Carson Palmer. He's played well all year and you would think he would want to show up his former team, but that doesn't mean anything to his teammates. A lot of Bengals players remember Palmer basically being a crybaby and asking to be traded when the chips were down, then threatening to retire. They would like nothing better than to cram the ball down his throat. The Bengals are just way more motivated to get the win against a bad team. 

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Pick Em Week 11

 (For Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

A freaking tie?  I lost a lock on a tie?  Are you &%*#'n kidding me???

Then my sister-in-law had to inform me today that the 9 year-old son of one of her co-workers picked perfectly two weeks this season?

I don't care.  Forty still sucks.

So, this week is another super boring one where we all picked along the same lines until the final two games.  Disclaimer:  I picked the Steelers because I needed to take a risk, and I just couldn't pick the Ravens.  In all likelihood, however, the dirty birds are going to win.  They were the stronger team coming into this week, and the Steelers have some critical injuries.  The smart bet would be to take them unless, like me, you need the risky bet to win back some ground.



Lock of the Week (Keller): Houston over Jacksonville (if the Colts can beat the Jags in Jacksonville by 17, the Texans can beat them in Houston by at least that much, and take the over if it’s 44 or less): 38-10.  I think the Jaguars have officially replaced the Browns as “team that I will pick against, regardless of who they’re playing.”  This week, they happen to be playing a very talented, very confident, very motivated Texans team in Houston.  If you can tease this against another spread or point total, I’d go higher than 17.  I would go as high as 24, but probably not any higher than that, because Houston might decide to have mercy on the hapless Jags.  Thing is, you don’t want to make the over/under any higher, because Jacksonville isn’t going to score a lot of points and, again, the Texans might be merciful.  Even if I wasn’t afraid of dipping into the Patriots Lock well too much, I’d still take Houston.  They’re about as Lockable a Lock as you can lock.  (That sounds cooler when I say it in my head, so I’m keeping it there.)

Lock of the Week (Weidman): What Keller said
If the Chiefs didn't exist, the Jags would be the worst team in the NFL, no question.  Houston is also at home after good road win.  Take the Texans all day long.

Lock of the Week (Forty): Houston over Jacksonville 27-7 (Take the under because the Jags aren't going to put up many points.)  There's only one double digit point spread in the early lines this week and that's Houston at home favored by 15.5 over Jacksonville. Houston showed last Sunday night that they were ready for prime time by handling the Bears on their own sloppy field. The Jags are probably considered the worst team in the NFL right now, after the Chiefs did show some life against the Steelers last week. Maurice Jones-Drew still being out puts more pressure on Blaine Gabbert who is still nursing a bad shoulder to his non-throwing arm. He'll probably have to throw it a ton here and look for him to get knocked around big time. In week two, the Texans easily beat the Jags at home 27-7 and just to be cute, I'm predicting the same score here. 

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode."  A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team.  Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Pick Em Week 10

 (For Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

Welcome to what was almost the most boring week of picks this season.  Until Keller lost his mind towards the end of the picks, I thought we'd have the first ever three-way mirror-image picks.  But, he didn't let us down.  The main game that concerns me is the Atlanta one.  They have to lose sometime, and the Saints need a big win.  They might shock us all.  It's a gut feeling, but not nearly enough to make any of us pick them in this match-up.

Now, as much as I kid Keller, his two contrary picks can't be faulted.  Neither game is favored by even 2 full points, so it could go either way.  It's a coin flip, so take your chances.



How about that?  Three different locks this week.  That's never happened before.  But hey, all three games are smart money picks - and here's why:

Lock of the Week (Keller): New England over Buffalo (take any spread under 17.5 and the Over): 45-21.  The Greatriots are coming off a bye and the Bills are coming back to Earth.  This is the time of year when New England pads their point differential by beating up on overmatched AFC East teams and Buffalo starts to... well, look like Buffalo.  The trajectories of the two teams are meeting at just the right time for my Lock of the Week and exactly the wrong time for the Buffalo Bills.  I really wanted to take the Steelers this week, but I have a sinking Tyler Palko Game feeling about Monday night.  Things look like they're lining up too well for Pittsburgh, they usually play to the level of their opponent, and they might be looking ahead to two games against the hated Ravens in the next three weeks.  That's what I like to refer as a bunch of bad converging trajectories, so I'm going with Coach Hoodie and Tom Terrific.

Lock of the Week (Weidman):San Fran over St Louis (Take the under and the points):  I coulda picked New England.  I coulda picked Pittsburgh.  Hell, I coulda gotten a real degree in college - a lot of things coulda happened, but they didn't and I picked San Fran. This game has all the hallmarks of Games That Screw Weidman.  Seriously - everything says San Fran, which means they're probably going to go all Hindenburg on me...but they shouldn't.  San Fran has only lost 9 turnovers this season, and STL has only forced two.  And, in the other direction, SF's D is solid.  Turnovers win games.  Cliches are cliches for a reason.  The Niners are rested and continuing a win streak.  The Rams are on a mission of suck.

Oh, and did I mention the Rams haven't won in San Fran since Jericho was still on the air?

Lock of the Week (Forty): Pittsburgh over Kansas City 32-10 (Take the under, even though it's 43, and the Steelers should be able to handle a 11.5 spread.) I would guess this is the game Weidman and Keller will also go with for their locks {Nope.  -Weidman}, but you really can't find a better lock on the schedule, although San Francisco vs. St. Louis and New England vs. Buffalo are close. The Chiefs are inept on both sides of the ball and are, by far, the worst team in the NFL this season. The Steelers showed a touch of their old dominant self in last week's game again the Giants. Despite the emotion involved for New York and bad calls in the first half, Pittsburgh rallied. Roethlisberger is much more likely to take the pressure of a high profile Monday night game and flourish, as opposed to Matt Cassel. The basic story here is that the Steelers are starting to peak in the second half of the season while the Chiefs show no signs of life on either side of the ball.

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode."  A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team.  Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Pick Em Week 9

(For Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

Once again, we had a solid week of picks last week (well, Forty and I did.  Keller was respectable) and Forty clung to his slim lead.  Depending on how his Crazy Ivans work out, that could change.  In fact, if he tanks, the rankings will skew in a totally awesome Weidman-like direction.

As the locks will show below, the big-name games are Green Bay/AZ and Houton/Buffalo.  Both should be blow-outs and either is a safe bet.

Unfortunately, we all felt the need to pick against the Steelers this week.  Assuming the game happens as scheduled (stupid Sandy), then it promises to be the marquee game this week.  It's one of the arguably best teams in the league against one of the most popular teams in the league.  The simple fact is, no matter how good the Steelers looked last week, they've sucked on the road this year.  Furthermore, the Giants will be playing for their city this week in post-crisis time.   Finally, the Giants are really, really good.



Oh, look - Forty Crazy Ivan'd the lock of the week as well.  It's a bold strategy. 

Lock of the Week (Keller): Green Bay (-11.5) over Arizona: 24-14, so take the points and the under: I damn near took the Texans over the Bills (same line, dominant home team playing against a reeling opponent), but there's something I don't trust about that game.  I am just suspicious enough with both those teams coming off a bye and not knowing what to expect out of Buffalo's offense.  I will take Aaron Rodgers at home and that defense -- especially now that they've had a week to adjust to the fact that Charles Woodson is out -- against the ineffective Cardinals.  If Arizona's defense made Alex Smith look like Joe Montana, how good are they going to make Rodgers look?  I mean, I still have this feeling that the Cardinals have just enough pride left that they'll fight to keep it close, but there's only so much that Arizona pride and Green Bay malaise can do to prevent the inevitable.  Either Jordy Nelson or Greg Jennings comes back this week and the offense starts to hum again.  They won't hum to the tune of 45 points or anything, but they'll hum well enough to get the job done.  That's what they did last week and I got the Lock Bonus and that's good enough for me.

Lock of the Week (Weidman):  Green Bay over Arizona.  Points and over.
You know all that stuff you've heard about Arizona this season, about how dangerous they are and how they're a sleeper pick to go all the way?  Yeah, me either.  You know how everyone's kinda forgotten about Brett and embraced this new Rodgers guy?  Yeah, me too.  Simple fact is, the Pack is going to be a contender as long as they have Rodgers leading the squad he's got, and the Cards are always going to be an "also ran" as long as they are content to be known as Steelers West and not The Arizona Cardinals.

Lock of the Week (Forty): Houston over Buffalo 28-17 (I'd be leery of the 11.5 point spread and the 47 point over.) There's a lot of games I feel pretty confident about this week and two certain locks. Green Bay vs. Arizona would seem like the safer pick, but they had their hands full with Jacksonville last week. Maybe they should have activated Don Majowski. Some people have shied away from Houston after their Sunday night loss against the Packers, but they righted the ship with a dominant performance against the reeling Ravens last week. Houston is a talented team, but young and might not be ready for prime time. A 1 p.m. game against a team in shambles like Buffalo they should have no problem with. Many predicted Buffalo to be the surprise team coming out of the AFC East in preseason, but that accolade seems to now be with the Miami Dolphins. The Bills were just edged by the Titans last week after beating Arizona the week before. However, the Bills are 27th in the NFP power rankings and have the worst defense in the NFL, a title they took away from Jacksonville who had it last week. Hmm...and Jacksonville did give Green Bay trouble like I said. Ah, forget it, go Texans!

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode."  A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team.  Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Pick Em Week 8

(For Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

Hey, hey - we got back on the right side of the suck/don't suck line this past weekend, with all of us getting 11 correct plus the lock.  Now, all of our Crazy Ivans de-Ivanafied each other, so the tally still stands with Forty one point ahead.

This week, Keller's the only one with some Ivan picks, and strangely, those were the safe picks, so anything can happen.  He might storm ahead, or drop behind.  There are a few games that I am concerned about.  Green Bay is favored by so much that they could be the upset of the week.  I doubt it, but it could happen.  Also, even though we all picked them, I'm not super convinced that the Steelers are going to win.  They have momentum, they're home, and they do well against rookie QBs...however, people treat him like the Second Coming with dreads, and the Steelers have been choking something fierce this season.  Take that pick with caution.

So, let's do this thing and start to enter the half-way point of the season already!
Lock of the Week (Keller): Green Bay Packers over Jacksonville Jaguars (take the Packers, even though they're 13 point favorites): 38-10. 

When I heard that Blaine Gabbert and Maurice Jones-Drew were both hurt and had to play the Packers at Green Bay, I knew I had my Lock of the Week.  New England playing in Old England is tempting, but not as sure a thing as a crappy offense facing a rejuvenated defense on the road.  Also, Aaron Rodgers has been looking fairly decent the last couple weeks.  I think the Packers might be onto something with that guy.  Actually, I thought the line was going to be 17 on this one before the lines for Week 8 were released.  I was prepared to take the Packers at 17 and you should be prepared to take them at 13.  Go Pack, Go!  (Rodgers is also on two of my fantasy teams...)

Lock of the Week (Weidman): Green Bay Packers over Jacksonville Jaguars (Despite what Keller says above, at the time of this writing, they're 15 point favs): 42-10. 

Wow, sometimes the locks lock themselves. Jacksonville is more beat up than a (insert probably offensive simile here), GB is looking strong and they're at home.  They're favored by more points than several teams scored last week and one of them won their game.  Basically, Rodgers should start warming up.

Lock of the Week: Green Bay over Jacksonville (Forty): (As much as I want to say the score will be 1 trillion to zero, I'll go conservative and peg it 42-9. Take Packers with the points and they can probably get the over by themselves, but Jacksonville won't be giving them any help there so lets say under.)

This might be the scariest thing you can watch the Sunday before Halloween. Aaron Rodgers is the Freddy Kreuger in the nightmares of all Jacksonville players. If they didn't go into this game as huge underdogs to start, the fact that they will be without Maurice Jones-Drew and possibly Blaine Gabbert drops their chances of winning from 5 percent to nothing. That's right, I said there is absolutely no chance the Jaguars win this game. Even if the Packers all go down in a plane crash, they could activate Don Majkowski and the rest of the Tecmo Super Bowl roster and still crush them. A lot of experts are saying the Packers are finally finding their swagger, but I don't think they ever lost it. They had to cope with injuries and deal with some very good defenses that knew how to play them. The Jags defense is ranked 28th overall in the NFL. The offense is ranked dead last and they're going to be missing their two best players. I'd watch this game, but I'm not a sadist.

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Pick Em Week 7

(For Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)
 
Ugh.  On behalf of all of us here at Steelers N At, I apologize for last week's picks.  You know we screwed the pooch when I was the big winner with five.  You also know it's a crazy, crazy world when the Texans and Ravens have tied records, the Cards are doing better than the Pats and I actually have to say, "Damnit, I knew I should have picked the Browns!"

On the bright side, Forty's only a point in the lead right now.  Silver linings and n'at.

This week, I think we did a little compensating.  There's some silly and/or crazy picks in there - I'm just as guilty as the others - but hopefully it will be a more cut-and-dried week.

 

Lock of the Week (Keller): New York Football Giants over Washington Redskins: 31-24 (take the over and the point spread at 6.5): Still can't trust the Pats after they burned me at home against the Cardinals, Seattle is a fluky, unpredictable team, and the 49ers are still suspect and unreliable in my opinion.  It's true that RGIII scares the every-living bejeebus out of me and he could win this game all by himself (like he did against the Vikings).  I just don't see the Giants defensive line giving him the edge.  I think they're going to keep him in the pocket and beat on him... and he's already a little groggy from the Falcons game.  Washington can't play defense and New York has been solid in the running game and passing game the last few weeks.  

But, really, this is just the lesser of three evils.  If last week is anything to shout about, the NFL and its stupid, stupid concept of parity has made things really difficult on us "expert" handicappers.

Lock of the Week (Weidman): New England Patriots over New York Jets. 48-21. (Take the over and the spread.)  I'd love to be witty and original, but you really only need to look at Forty's post below.  He makes all the points that I would.  Short preview: Pats + Loss last week + home this week + Jets = Slaughter of the Jets.

Lock of the Week (Forty): New England Patriots over New York Jets. 45-17. (Take the over and the point spread, even though it's 10.5. Look for this to turn out like the Pats last home game against Denver.)

Pete Rozelle's dream of total parity in the NFL has been achieved. Looking over this week, no team really has a clear advantage. There were so many coin flip games this coming week, I usually just went with home field advantage for the slight edge.

Last week, the Jets whipped up on the Colts and the Patriots were edged by Seattle at home. However, there are certain truths I know about the Patriots. Namely, that Bill Belichick hates to lose two in a row, he hates to lose to the Jets, he hates to lose at home and he'll slit his wrists before he loses to the Jets at home to go under .500, especially with Tim Tebow on the roster whether he plays or not. Belichik is hating all the crap being talked about the Pats and the AFC East at this time. He wants this to be a statement game and the game where the Patriots become the Patriots. The Jets are still a mess, despite last week's performance. I think they go into this game mentally knowing the Patriots are going to own them and that will get them owned. Maybe I'm a homer coming on too strong here, but history, my gut and the oddsmakers in Vegas are with me. 

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Pick Em Week 6

(For Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

Well, Keller and I survived New Orleans and Forty survived....um...Ohio...and I'm back, baby!  A lot of close calls this week, but we're mostly in agreement below.  My toughest choice was the Bungles over the Brownies.  My gut actually says the Browns can win this one, but I just still can't bring myself to pick them.  I wouldn't be surprised if the same is true of the other two guys.  San Diego is another toughy for Monday night, but personally, I had to go with the home team.

Also, I need to take a minute to say:  I hate Thursday Night Football.  Hate it. It's even worse when the Steelers get stuck with that slot.  Football belongs on Thanksgiving Thursday and that's it.  And, frankly, that's only because I'm in a gravy-coma and have the attention span for football, a parade or Die Hard.  That's it.

So, on to the picks.  If I nail my picks, I can close the gap a bit.  If I don't...I'm in trouble.  As always, comments are appreciated below.



Lock of the Week (Keller): Atlanta over Oakland (Atlanta covers the 9 point spread and take the Over at 48.5): 34-20 I thought about picking against Cleveland, but they're at home and I don't trust the Bengals on the road.  Or at home.  Not with my precious, precious Lock.  Oakland is one injured defensive back away from having Carson Palmer play safety and Julio Jones and Roddy White are pretty good.

I know this screams Trap Game and the Raiders just came off a bye, but I think the Falcons have enough talent and enough of a home field advantage to win this one easy. 

Lock of the Week (Weidman) Atlanta over Oakland (Atlanta covers and take the under) 24-14:I hate to be Captain Spread, but when most spreads are less than 5 points this week, and this game is a whopping 9, I gotta take it.  Plus, I'm still angry about the Steelers' loss.  Plus, Atlanta is looking stronger than the Raiders, and I think Oakland's wins have been more about luck than anything else.

Lock of the Week (Forty): Atlanta over Oakland (spread is 9 and the over/under is 48. I'd go under and Atlanta with the points). 27-13 A five-year-old with no knowledge of football could tell you that an undefeated team at home should beat a one win team on the road. And Oakland's one win came during The Week Of Which We Will Never Speak of Again, so that hardly counts. Atlanta has been averaging just under 30 points a game and Oakland is averaging around 14, so figuring out the score isn't too hard either. I really can't give much more insight here other than Oakland sucks on both sides of the ball and Atlanta is pretty good on both sides of the ball. The only thing I could see happening here is Atlanta taking Oakland too lightly due to the 5-0 start and thinking they can coast at home. Then again, they probably can.

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode." A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team. Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.

Pick Em Week 5

(For Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and year-to-date -- click here.)

Weidman is on vacation, so I, Keller, am responsible for writing something pithy and amusing and interesting.  So... take my wife, please?

Seriously, don't take my wife.  I'll be out of town for a week and I'm frightened that she'll see the outside world that I've been denying her by locking her up in the basement and she'll leave me.

Last week, we crushed it, at least compared to the first three weeks of the season.  Whether that's due to the actual refs coming back or to the fact that we finally got our bearings, I have no idea.  The point is that we successfully predicted the outcomes of games better than most experts, so you should listen to us.

Onto this week's picks and Locks....


And now, after being in the French Quarter since Sunday, need to roll out an image manipulation program and attempt to make the picks graphic



Okay, that wasn't too bad...now back to hurricanes.
<\Weidman Edit>


Lock of the Week (Keller): New York Football Giants over Cleveland Browns 31-10 (Giants will cover favored by 11, take the Under, because the Browns won't score enough points):  There are a lot of solid Lock of the Week candidates on the board this week, but I tend to stay away from road teams when picking my Locks and I don't trust the 49ers quite yet after they broke Forty's heart in Week 3 (thanks, Vikings!).  Besides, what looks better than a pissed off Giants team playing at home against the overmatched Browns?

When you get right down to it, I don't think the Browns can beat anyone, which is why "Browns Opponent" is penciled in for my Lock of the Week for the balance of the season.  They can go ahead and keep trying to prove me wrong.  If they do, bully for them.  As long as it isn't against the Steelers.

Lock of the Week (Weidman)New York Football Giants over Cleveland Browns 31-7 (Giants will cover, Browns will get lost on the way to the game and not score enough):
Man, I'm totally not sold on the Giants this season just yet, but I have a hard time not picking a Browns opponent as a lock, assuming that team knows which end of the field they're running towards (as such, I wouldn't be able to pick the Saints as a lock over the Browns if that would have been scheduled for this season.)     Damnit, and here I thought I might be able to add something new.  But that just goes to show: it's an easy lock against the Brownies.  Take it, and pity the souls of those who need to root for that team.

Lock of the Week (Forty): San Francisco over Buffalo 34-17 (I think San Francisco will open it up 
big in the fourth quarter, so take the spread and the under, barely. Just straight up is a better bet. This could wind up looking like the New England game Buffalo played last week.)

As Brad said, there are a lot of good lock candidates this week. I don't want to keep picking on the Browns and while I love Houston over the Jets in a romp, I don't want to wait until Monday night to see if I got my lock right. Brad also mentioned I got burned by the 49ers previously, but that was a road game against a better than originally though Vikings. The 49ers are home this time and coming off of blanking the Jets.

Everything I said last time about San Francisco playing solidly as a team and wanting to really make a statement goes again here. Buffalo also burned me as I picked them to lose to the Browns previously. What I said goes again here and all of the Bills' faults were pretty much exposed in the Patriots game last week as they collapsed in the second half defensively and the offense lived and died by the big gain. So, my logic here is being wrong on these teams twice means I should be right here. I didn't say it was normal logic, it was my logic.


Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode."  A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team.  Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.



Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.