Pick Em Week 14

(For Pick 'Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD -- click here.)

 Are we really this close to the end of the season already?  Is it really December?  Have I really not started my Christmas shopping yet?

Well, it's looking more and more like my Christmas gift to Forty will be a victory in Pick 'Em 2012, that's for sure.

We're at the part of the season where picking takes on a slightly different tactic.  Rather than looking at the match-ups and records themselves, you need to look more at the situation. Some teams <cough Steelers cough> are right on the bubble and need to play some smash-mouth down the stretch.  On the other end of the spectrum are teams like the Pats and Falcons who have locked their divisions and can lay back a bit if they want (which is why I can see Keller's pick below, I just don't agree with it.)  Finally, there's my favorite late-season disease:  Spoileritus.  The Browns haven't had much going for them over the years, but at least they know they always have that late-season possibility of ruining some team's season for them.


 

 

Lock of the Week (Keller): San Francisco over Miami (the 49ers should cover any spread under two touchdowns and take the under): 27-7

As shaky as the 49ers have been as a Lock (at Minnesota, that freakin' tie against the Rams), I trust them the most here.  There are two other double-digit spreads out there (Denver/Oakland and Seattle/Arizona), but those are both division games and anything can happen.  Plus which, the Broncos are on the road.  Jim Harbaugh's team is also money after a humiliating loss.  They smoked the Jets and Bills in back-to-back games after they lost to the Vikings and then tore Chicago apart the week after their tie with St. Louis.  I trust these guys to bounce back.  I don't care how many tattoos their quarterback has, '9ers all the way.

Lock of the Week (Weidman): Broncos over Raiders, cover and under.  21-7
Keller's right - it's a divisional game and anything can happen, but that doesn't change the fact that Denver is still the way better team.  "Spoileritus" concerns aside, I still don't see Peyton slacking off anymore now than I did a few weeks ago.  One concern for the Broncos is that Stokley is questionable for this game, however, they have plenty of depth without him - and the Raiders still suck.

Lock of the Week (Forty): Seattle over Arizona 28-12 (The odds on this is one of the weirdest I've seen. The under is an insanely low 34.5, but the spread is 11.5. As you can see with the numbers I play with below, the spread is super iffy, but with an over/under that low, you've got to take the over.)

Seattle is undefeated at home and Arizona only has one win on the road. That win came against the Patriots and the Cards were 4-0 before losing eight in a row, including only putting six points up against the Jets last week. Sure, they only put up seven points, but it was with a third string quarterback at the helm. The Jets only put seven on Seattle too, but the Seahawks responded with 28 points. Seattle has averaged about 24 points at home while the Cards have only done about 12 points on average in their road losses. What does this all mean? I figured I would just throw a bunch of numbers out there to befuddle you and hope Seattle's home mojo holds out.

Meet the "Experts":

Brad "QBERT" Keller is the inventor and sole proprietor of the QBERT (Quantitative BERT jones is awesome) system for rating quarterbacks. Using this innovative approach and working tirelessly part time breaking down film and finding angles inside the angles, he has mastered the art of picking and handicapping NFL games. With an expanded playing field this season, he's anxious to defend his title against a formidable group of experts that... hey, you know what? He can beat these two jokers, right? No problem. Because he has a foolproof system.



"Arena" Weidman's prime qualification for this contest is that he's spent more than a decade watching Steelers games with Keller while drinking. Because of this, most of his picks might seem like they were done while drunk, but that's just a facet of how he gets into "recall mode."  A devoted follower of the Arena Football League, Weidman's NFL world view is colored through this lens. Because of this, he possesses strong opinions on why more people should go to Power games and how the the Cardinals should really be using the Rattlers as a farm team.  Mainly, he just has trouble with the field being way too big.


Leonard "Forty" Hayhurst earned his nickname for his ability to grow the facial hair of a 40-year-old man at the age of 16, not his ability to pound 40s of King Cobra, but there's that too. He owns the largest collection of Drew Bledsoe memorabilia in the world (five items would be the largest, right?). He feels for Cleveland Browns fans because when he started rooting for a 2-14 club in the New England Patriots, they eventually won three Super Bowls. Then Steelers fans brag about how they have six Super Bowl wins, to which Leonard says they would have had eight if the Patriots hadn't beaten them twice in the AFC Championship game. They then mumble something about Franco Harris and walk away.