I have a feeling that this game is going to suck. A lot. Like, suck more than the last two games, if that's even possible. In the Sunday night game two weeks ago, I at least saw a silver lining, a way that the Steelers might be able to pull it off. By the time kickoff rolled around, I actually thought they had a good shot at winning. This week? Not so much.
First and foremost, Unibrow is significantly better at home than he is on the road. One of the reasons I thought the Steelers might be able to beat the hated Ravens in Week 11 was that he loses about 40 quarterback rating points when he's not in Baltimore. He didn't play very well at Heinz Field, but now he gains those 40 points this week. Torrey Smith was shut down by Ike Taylor in the last game and Ray Rice was kept pretty much in check. The only way this game stays close is if that happens again. Flacco will be able to spread the ball around to Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin and will be more effective even if Smith and Rice don't blow up, but we're looking at shades of the 2011 opener if they do.
Then you have the fact that the offense probably won't be able to get going with Charlie Batch behind center. I'm guessing he'll be on a short leash, but Brian Hoyer and Byron Leftwich aren't exactly attractive alternatives. Baltimore's defense has been surprisingly soft against the run this season, but they were able to hold Jonathan Dwyer and Rashard Mendenhall to 88 yards on 23 attempts. The Steelers had 134 yards total, but 31 of that came on Leftwich's touchdown run, which skews the average.
In order to have a shot at winning this game, they need to keep it low scoring and ugly like the last game. In order to do that, they need to run the ball effectively and take some of the pressure off Batch. Unfortunately, Batch doesn't scare anyone, especially the hated Ravens. They'll stack 15 guys in the box and make Batch beat them. I don't think there's a lot of people that believe he can beat them, possibly not even Batch himself.
While the logical center of my brain knows that there's a very low statistical probability of them committing eight turnovers again, I can't convince the rest of my brain that it's most likely not going to happen. I can seriously see six or seven turnovers, even if they don't get to eight. If they lose the turnover battle in a big way, they're going to lose big.
There are a lot of factors that point to this game ending in a blowout and some serious tears, but I don't think it's going to be that lopsided. Yes, Charlie Batch is a shadow of his former self and yes, the hated Ravens still have a lot of talent on defense. Yes, Flacco is lights out at home, but he's also struggled against the Steelers throughout his career, regardless of where the game's being played. They don't have Ben Roethisberger -- finally, officially ruled out today -- or LaMarr Woodley, but they get Antonio Brown back and Troy Polamalu is apparently going to play a significant role on defense.
With Brown back, that takes the defensive focus away from Mike Wallace and allows Heath and Emmanuel Sanders more room to roam. Sure, Batch is still throwing them the ball, but putting Brown back in the mix makes this a better offense. Batch has a faster delivery than Leftwich, so that means they can mix in some quick screens and make Baltimore think twice about loading up the line of scrimmage and leaving Wallace, Sanders, and Brown free to roam after the catch. One missed tackle could mean a huge play.
If they get something out of the passing game, that opens things up for the running game, they don't turn the ball over, and Troy does something spectacular on defense, then maybe there's a chance for victory. But... I highly doubt that all those things happen on Sunday.
They'll accomplish enough of those objectives to keep the game from being a laugher, but I think they ultimately fall short.
Prediction:
Hated Ravens 23, Steelers 13
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