It's a Mess: Steelers at Jets Preview

Before the season started, I had this game penciled in as a win.  The Jets were in shambles, they were starting a rookie at quarterback, Mark Sanchez was a huge distraction, and Rex Ryan looked like he was trying to get fired.  As things stand now, I have a feeling that the New York Jets are looking at the Steelers and thinking, "Man, that team has some serious issues."

The defense can't tackle or make any big plays, the offensive line is in disarray, they just traded for a left tackle that the Arizona Cardinals were willing to pay $3 million to get rid of, there's some kind of issue with ping pong that I don't quite understand, the offensive coordinator is a colossal douche, they're 0-4, and Ryan Clark and Ben Roethlisberger have a mini-feud going.  All that I honestly feel as though I'm forgetting something.

I had hoped that the bye week would give them a chance to sort a few things out and get a little bit more stable on all fronts, but the opposite seems to have happened.  They appear to have gone further off the rails and I'm not sure how much further they're going to get off course.  I would say that I don't think it's possible for things to get worse, but I thought that heading into the bye week... and they got worse.

I think that the defense will play better than they've shown the past two games.  I think that they'll eventually register a sack and force a turnover.  I think they won't give up a kajillion yards rushing and 34 points against New York.

I think that the offensive line will be in better shape with Mike Adams out of there and Kelvin Beacham  or Levi Brown in.  I think the receivers will continue to improve and mature and that the pass offense has the potential to be pretty explosive by the end of the season.

But, this is still a flawed team that has major talent holes at a number of positions.  Demoting Ziggy Hood and Mike Adams sends a message and their replacements will be better, but it's doubtful that they'll be considerably better, or at least good enough that right end and left tackle won't be areas of weakness. Getting Le'Veon Bell and Heath back will help boost the offense and give Ben Roethlisberger and Todd Haley more options.

The issue is that all of these things are like having a kid to save a bad marriage: The dynamic changes, but the old problems are still there.  In order to salvage the season and take big steps forward, they need to fundamentally change how they approach things.

They need to max protect more, take more shots down the field, and run more when they get into the red zone.  They need to blitz more, play more man coverage, and take more chances on defense.  They had been playing it safe thus far, only going all out -- at least on offense -- when they felt they had no other choice.  They assumed that they had the talent and football savvy to win enough games to at least be competitive, but they overestimated the talent on hand by a lot and weren't anywhere near as savvy as they thought.

They're a quarter of the way through the season and doing things the same way they've always done them isn't working.  They need to step outside their comfort zone, take some chances, and basically go big or go home.  I have no idea if they'll succeed or not if they take that chance, but they haven't won any games playing it safe, so it's worth a shot.

Sure, the Jets have a rookie quarterback, a ton of injuries on offense, and they traded their best defensive player in the offseason.  They're also 3-2, they're at home, they know who they are, and they know how to get where they want to go.  They may be a mess, but they're not as big a mess as the Steelers right now.

Prediction:
Jets 17, Steelers 16

Heisenberged: Bears at Steelers Preview

OK, here's the thing: I'm 95% sure I'm going to watch Breaking Bad at 9 p.m. on Sunday instead of watching the Steeler game.  I'll most likely record the game and watch that hour of it later -- with the bonus of avoiding the 15 or so commercial breaks that NBC is probably going to jam into the first half, while the game is still competitive -- but I think I've convinced myself that watching Breaking Bad is a better use of my time.  I know that I'm going to enjoy it, that I'm going to be entertained, and that, with all the updates and spoilers I'm going to see on the Internet, it makes more sense to watch it live rather than recording it and watching it later.  I don't want to slog through an hour, bored out of my mind, only watching because of a sense of obligation, because I've invested so much time already.  If I wanted to spend an hour that way, I'd just watch Dexter.

I'm being melodramatic and I'm exaggerating, but not by a whole lot.  I know that Breaking Bad will deliver the goods and I can't say the same about the Steelers.

After they opened the season 0-2, there was a quick flurry of, "They opened the season 0-2 in 2002 and won the division that year!" observations, but then everyone realized that this team is different than that 2002 team.  That team opened against the Patriots and the Raiders (remember that's the year the Raiders went to the Super Bowl, so this was before they sucked).  New England was defending its title.  That was a deeper Steeler team, a more talented team, and a squad that just happened to draw the two best teams in the AFC in their first two games.

The 2013 Steelers may actually be good, I'm still not sure, but they certainly have a confidence problem.  The offensive line lacks confidence -- they're not sure how good they are, there's real anxiety about everyone getting hurt, and they haven't been together long enough to be confident in each other.  Solid offensive line play is equal parts talent, rote, and determination.  There's plenty of athletic talent on this line, but they haven't played and practiced together much, so the familiarity isn't there.  Determination is having the confidence to try to do something and the tenacity to see it through.  If they don't have confidence, they can't see it through.  That's where it all starts and it trickles down from there.

The coaches don't think the line can pass protect for more than a couple of seconds, so they're calling safer, shorter plays.  I'm not a huge fan of Todd Haley, but I don't think you can pin this on him.  If he calls too many aggressive pass plays that call for long dropbacks, he exposes Ben Roethlisberger to injury.  If Roethlisberger gets hurt, then the season is sunk for sure.  Haley doesn't have Mike Wallace to take the top off the defense.  He doesn't have a back that he trusts to hold onto the ball.  They don't have any explosive players and they're not making any explosive plays.  If they start to trust the offensive line, if they start to make some big plays, they'll gain some confidence.  Confidence is contagious. The trouble is that I don't see enough guys on this roster to foster that kind of confidence and make those kinds of plays.  I don't think that getting Heath Miller and Le'Veon Bell fixes that.  I think they just need to take baby steps until they can walk.  That might not happen this season.

The defensive is playing it safe and there are two explosive playmakers on that side of the ball: Troy Polamalu and Jarvis Jones.  Jones is going to be an amazing player, but he's still young and raw.  Troy, as much as I love him and think he's a great player, will get hurt by Week 6.  If he doesn't get hurt and Jones makes serious strides, then they've got a little bit of something going on defense.  But, they still don't have enough.  They need to start piling up sacks and forcing turnovers, making big plays on defense.  Right now, they're playing it safe.  They're playing not to lose.  Again, this isn't something I blame the coordinator for, as if I could ever say anything bad about Dick LeBeau.  These are just the circumstances they're operating under with the players they have, at the development levels they have them.

These guys will get better, they will gain confidence, they will come together, they will make plays.  I just think the 2013 version of this team is a lot like the 2003 version of this team.  Both seasons had similar vibes to them.  Both teams had issues on the offensive line (remember that Alan Faneca played left tackle for a few games).  They needed to develop and gain confidence.

Bad news: That 2003 team finished 6-10.  Good news: With basically the same personnel (plus a rookie phenom named Ben Roethlisberger), they went 15-1 in 2004.

Now, for the bad news for Sunday: The Bears are already a developed team that is playing as well as they can play.  They're 2-0 and looking to build on recent successes.  The Steelers are 0-2 and looking to avoid recent failures.

I hope the Steelers are going to be in the lead (or at least keeping the game competitive) when I switch over from Breaking Bad at 10 p.m. on Sunday, but I doubt it.

Prediction:
Bears 24, Steelers 13

Remember the Titans... Suck: Titans at Steelers Preview

Holy crap.  There hasn't been a post on the ol' SteelersNAt blog since August 15th.  I would've thought August 26th, but what do I know.

Looks like football season is upon us and the Steelers host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday at 1 p.m. at Heinz Field.

I mentioned during the preseason that I didn't have high hopes for the Steelers this season; I just don't want them to be boring like they were last season.  They finished 8-8, which is kind of like kissing your sister. But, the average score in those games was 21-19 and there were a number of turnover-riddled snoozefests that ended 16-14 or 13-10 or 20-14.  So, last year was kind of like watching your sister kiss all your uncles on the cheek.  Which... I guess means I'd like to watch my sister make out with random dudes this season.  And that doesn't make any sense.

What I'd like to see is exciting games with big plays -- even if it means poor tackling and poor coverage -- and a finish within one game of 8-8 (7-9, 8-8, or 9-7, doesn't really matter).  I think that Sunday's game has a high potential to kick off the season right, with lots of scoring, defensive breakdowns, offensive breakdowns, and crazy plays.

Consider:

1. Chris Johnson can break a big play at any time.
2. Kenny Britt had his first big game against the Steelers and Nate Washington has big play potential (or at least he did at one point and maybe he's still mad that he doesn't play for Pittsburgh anymore).
3. The Titans defense is young and opportunistic.  Better yet, they're young, inexperienced, and undisciplined, so maybe the cornerbacks will jump routes and miss, allowing a big play on the back end.  Maybe they'll jump routes and hit, making a big play.
4. Ben Roethlisberger is quirky and unpredictable.  If they start to struggle running the ball early on -- and they probably will -- then Roethlisberger might decide to let it rip.
5. This year's defense can't possibly be worse at forcing turnovers than last year's... can it?

On the other side of all this is the fact that neither team's offensive line looks like it's all the way together yet. That's a wild card in that it could lead to a lot of big plays -- strip-sacks and whatnot -- or it could lead to a lot of futility and three-and-outs.

The good news is that Tennessee doesn't have a very good team and they're in Year Two of a pretty painful four year rebuilding process.  They may be competitive and dangerous eventually, but not now.  Their front seven has been repeatedly gutted by free agency and Bernard Pollard might be their best player in the secondary.  On offense, Jake Locker is a great athlete, but he's a terrible quarterback.  The Steelers tend to feast on terrible quarterbacks.  Despite the nice things I said about Britt and Washington, those guys are a couple of oft-injured, wildly inconsistent "upside guys" that keep getting chances because someone is dumb enough to believe that they'll put it all together eventually if they just get enough chances.

Chris Johnson is the guy to fear, even if he's been underwhelming the past two or three seasons.  He's still explosive, still super fast, and can still break off a long touchdown at any moment.  The Titans are going to feed him the ball because they have no other real option.  If he gets enough chances, he'll break a big gain eventually.  The Steelers just need to stay focused, maintain their lanes on defense, and practice sound tackling fundamentals.

The Steelers are an average team, but the Titans are a bad team.  The fact that Roethlisberger is one of the seven or eight best quarterbacks in the league lifts the Steelers from being below average to just average.  If they can't beat Tennessee, then they are a bad team (I don't care if the Titans finish with a winning record, bad teams can get lucky as these same Titans did in 2011).

In order to not embarrass themselves, the Steelers need to win this game.  If they can get off to a winning start, they'll enter next week with more confidence -- and they'll need all the help they can get against the Bengals.  If they lose this week, they could very well open up the season 0-3.  If they split their non-division conference games (home against the Titans, at Miami), go 3-1 against the atrocious AFC East (yes, this means they're going to lose at home to the Patriots; I've accepted it, the sooner you do the better for your sanity), split their division games, and split with their non-conference games (a pretty up-in-the-air NFC North), then they're looking at a 9-7 season.  

Maybe they catch some breaks, beat the Dolphins and go 4-2 in the division, that puts them at 11-5.

The X-Factor this season is the guys they've drafted since 2010.  There are only four guys on the roster from  the 2006-2009 draft classes -- Woodley, Timmons, Ziggy Hood, and David Johnson.  There are five players still on the roster from the 2002-2005 draft classes -- Ben, Troy, Keisel, Ike Taylor, and Heath.  With no young veterans stepping up -- and the guys from those 2006-2009 classes should all be playing vital roles on the team, making up the core group of talented skill position players -- they have a bunch of old guys that need to keep playing at a high level and really young guys that need to grow up in a hurry.  Assuming that the old guard doesn't fall apart this season -- and, aside from Troy missing at least 5-6 games every season with various injuries, it doesn't look like they will fall apart -- then it's up to the 2010-Present draft classes to make up that talent gap and deliver.

If they can deliver in a big way, then you're looking at a 12-4 or 13-3 season.  I don't think they're all going to deliver in a big way.  I think some of them will make a big leap forward, some of them will be average, and some of them will fall off.  When that happens, you're looking at 8-8 or 7-9 or 9-7.  If injuries keep mounting and the depth of this team is really tested, then it's a 6-10 or 5-11 situation, but I don't think that's going to happen.

They're an average team and they're going to finish with an average record.  They'll do slightly better or worse depending on luck.  I've seen so many successful seasons in the last decade or so that I really don't care how well (or not) they do during the regular season. I believe that there's a big enough talent gap between them and the favorites from the AFC that I know they won't advance to (and win) the Super Bowl. If they're not going to win the Super Bowl and are probably going to be average, I just don't want to be bored when it's happening.

It all starts on Sunday against the Tennessee Titans and, the good lord willing, it will be exciting.

Better Than Buccos: Browns at Steelers Preview

Here we are.  The Steelers have been eliminated from playoff consideration and the best that they can hope for is to finish at .500.  If they manage to accomplish that objective, they will have had a better season than the Pirates, though it's fair to argue which team had the more epic collapse in 2012.  It's been a long, frustrating season from start to finish, but there have been plenty of highs to go along with the lows.

I think the Browns are improving and I think that they have a bright future now that Mike Holmgren isn't in charge of personnel decisions and Pat Schurmur will most likely not be in charge of anything in the very near future (like Monday).

I think Brandon Weeden is going to be a good quarterback well into his mid-30s, which means that they'll have a solid five years of good quarterback play in Cleveland.  Trent Richardson is the second coming of Jamaal Lewis and I'm not looking forward to that guy running roughshod over Steeler defenders for the next decade or so.

Joe Hayden leads a talented, ball-hawking secondary and the front seven has shown improvement over the course of the season, though that's definitely the team's weakness.  Well, that and the offensive line.  And they're pretty thin at receiver and tight end. 

OK, they have some work to do, but I think the Browns and Bengals are trending up and the Steelers and hated Ravens are trending down.  Cincinnati took a huge step forward in Week 16 and, according to my Pick Em picks, I think they'll take another big step forward by beating Baltimore this week.

My point is not that the Browns are awesome and that the Steelers suck.  My point is that these are two teams headed in different directions that happen to both be eliminated from post season contention.

But, at least as far as Sunday is concerned, the Browns are still the Browns and the Steelers are still the Steelers.  Mike Wallace and Heath Miller won't be available, but I don't think that will make a huge difference.  The Steelers are going to do what they do on offense and Cleveland will try to stop them.  Given that I don't think the Browns are going to force eight turnovers on Sunday, I don't think they'll be able to make enough stops to win this game.  Weeden and Richardson have both been declared out and so has Colt McCoy.  That means that something called a Thad Lewis is starting at quarterback and a Montario Hardesty (charter member of the Wasted Fantasy Football Pick-up Hall of Fame) will be starting at tailback.

At some point, probably after their fifth consecutive three-and-out, the Browns will realize that there's not that much difference between 5-11 and 6-10 and just lay down.  They've done that the past few times they've played the Steelers in the last game of the season and they'll do it again.  Because the Browns are still the Browns and the Steelers are still the Steelers.

Next season, who knows?  Cleveland could be fighting for a playoff spot and the Steelers could be 5-10.

This season, the Brownies have Thad Lewis, a lame duck head coach, and some dude named Montario starting at running back.  The Steelers still have a core group of guys -- the old guard of Keisel, Ryan Clark, Max Starks, Troy Polamalu, Casey Hampton, Larry Foote, Ben Roethlisberger, and even guys on IR like Ike Taylor and Heath -- that will want to finish the season strong and will do whatever it takes to make sure Week 17 isn't yet another losing effort.

Sure, the Steelers went on the road earlier this season and won a game against a division rival with their third string quarterback and a back-up starting at running back.  But, they also still had something to play for and those guys were Charlie Batch and Jonathan Dwyer, not Thad Lewis and Montario Hardesty.  Not that I think Batch and Dwyer are all-stars, but they've certainly shown enough throughout the season to suggest they're better than Lewis and Hardesty.

Then there's the fact that a big win on Sunday can fool us into believing the Steelers will come back strong next season, carrying momentum through offseason activities and training camp.  And the fact that a dismantling of the Browns would show, in some small way, that this team had real potential to be a dominant squad, they just frittered that potential away through injuries and inconsistent play.

I'm not looking at match-ups as much as I'm looking at history, emotion, and mental fortitude.  For those reasons, I think the Steelers will roll (which means that the Browns will win).

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Browns 6

Season on the Brink: Bengals at Steelers Preview

Well, the bad news is that the game against the Cowboys sucked.  The good news is that the Steelers are officially in playoff mode and it's win-or-go-home time.  They seem to do better in situations like this, unless of course they're up against Tim Tebow.

This is definitely a winnable game and that's not a dig on the Bengals.  The losses to the Titans, Raiders, and Browns weren't cases of the Steelers losing a winnable game, they were cases of them honking away a sure win.  Yes, things change when the game actually kicks off and you commit eight turnovers, but the fact remains that they had match-up advantages pretty much everywhere on both sides of the ball in those games and failed to capitalize on those advantages.

On Sunday, they don't have a ton of match-ups in their favor, but they have enough.  Cincinnati doesn't have anyone that can cover Heath Miller.  Dallas had a tough time dealing with Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown -- provided they held onto the ball -- and the Cowboys have a more talented secondary than the Bengals.  Emmanuel Sanders will be back this week and will be at full strength.  The only guys that won't play are Ike Taylor and Mike Adams, so they're healthier than they've been at any point in the season and certainly in better shape health-wise than they were for the first meeting in Cincy.  Ben Roethlisberger is a better quarterback than Andy Dalton and Dalton has struggled pretty mightily against this Steelers defense thus far in his career.  BenJarvis Green-Ellis hasn't been able to get much going this season, the Bengals offensive line has been far better in pass protection than they have in the running game, and the Steelers held the Law Firm to only 69 yards in the first meeting.

I'm aware of the fact that Cincinnati has Geno Atkins and he's a very good, very disruptive player on the interior of the defensive line.  But, Legursky and Ramon Foster were able to contain Atkins in the first game, to the tune of two tackles and a sack, which makes me think that Pouncey and DeCastro might actually fare better.  DeCastro looked a little rough at times in his first start, but he was coming off three months of inactivity and only had three practices to get used to the line calls and the tendencies of his line mates.  I think he'll be better this week and Pouncey usually steps up his level of play for big games (unless it's an actual playoff game, in which case he's usually hurt).

With all the talk about Atkins, I think people are forgetting that the Bengals have a really talented, solid front seven.  They lead the league with 43 sacks.  They pressure quarterbacks into making bad decisions and they're plus 3 in the turnover department (Steelers are minus 14).  But... they have the same personnel that they had when the Steelers plowed them over for 167 yards in Week 7 and the offensive line for Pittsburgh has benefited from a couple of upgrades since then.  Jonathan Dwyer ran for 122 yards on only 17 carries in that game.  The Steelers outgained the Bengals 431-185 in that game and really dominated throughout.  They just lost the field position battle and turned the ball over in the red zone.

If they can keep from committing a costly turnover -- especially a pick six, which is no sure thing with this team -- they should be able to win fairly easily.

One thing really scares the hell out of me in this game and his name is AJ Green.  Without Taylor to keep Green in check, you have either Keenan Ivory Lewis or Cortez Allen or... #35, whatever his name is, it doesn't really matter because he's awful.  (I know it's Josh Victorian, but that still doesn't matter because he's awful.)  If Green's able to roam free, then he'll do more damage than Miles Austin and Dez Bryant put together.  My guess is that they double him with Lewis and Ryan Grant and err on the side of not getting beat deep, but Green's good enough at adjusting to the ball when it's in the air that he's still open even if he's double covered.

I think that Green still runs wild, but it's kept within reason.

That's all the X's and O's and strategy, but here's the big reason I think they win on Sunday: If they lose Sunday, their season is over.  This team has been maddeningly inconsistent all year, but they've always been able to find just the right time and way to break the hearts of Steelers fans all over the world. 

This Sunday isn't the right time.  If they lose Sunday, they're done, Steeler fans have no hope for the next week.  Their hearts will be broken, sure, but their team will have lost to an up-and-coming team and, hey, the Bengals deserve a break every now and again.

Next Sunday is the right time, because they're playing Cleveland and there's every reason to believe that they absolutely should win that game and make it to the playoffs.  To lose out on a post-season berth by getting beat at home by the lowly, stupid Cleveland Browns is considerably more heartbreaking. 

The only thing that this team has consistently done all season is break our hearts and drive us crazy.  That will continue on Sunday against the Bengals.

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Bengals 23

Glory Hole Days: Steelers at Cowboys Preview

I've been waiting to preview this game all season, because I wanted to link to this video where Jerry Jones says that he wants the Cowboys to get back to the "glory hole days."

That's as stupid as it is funny, and it's about as stable as my prediction for this week.

Honestly, I have no idea.  The Steelers are a talented team, but they're also banged up, deeply flawed, and very inconsistent.  The Cowboys are a talented team, but they're also banged up, deeply flawed, and very inconsistent. 

Dallas has home field advantage, but it was the Cowboys-Steelers game in 2004 that first got announcers and reporters talking about how well Pittsburgh travels.  There were about 20,000 Steelers fans at that game and it got the nation's attention.  The Steelers won that game and also beat the Romo-led Cowboys at Heinz Field in 2008.  But, Dallas also hosted Super Bowl XLV and that didn't work out so well for the Steelers.

I know Ben Roethlisberger looked awfully rusty -- almost like a guy who hadn't played in a month or something -- but I also know that he's better than he showed against the Chargers and should play better against a Dallas secondary that has some injury issues.

I don't know what's wrong with Mike Wallace, but I know that he's an extremely talented player that can break a game wide open (like he did against the Giants).  Whether or not he gets his head straight this week, I have no idea.

I know Keenan Ivory Lewis and Cortez Allen looked pretty lost starting their first game together, but Dick LeBeau was probably pretty lost without Ike Taylor.  Ike's been in every game since 2004 and that had to be an adjustment for LeBeau.  And for the rest of the secondary, kind of like when Ryan Clark missed those two games against the Broncos.

Mike Tomlin has coached through this season like he forgot to take his Adderall, but it's not like he's suddenly forgotten everything that has made him successful.  He's got a strong, veteran roster that doesn't seem to care too much what Rashard Mendenhall does or doesn't do/Tweet.  I don't think there's as much discord in the locker room as we've been led to believe.

Looking at the match-ups on the offensive line, it's crazy to think that a team that got shredded by San Diego's front four last week could hold up against the likes of DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer.  But it also would've been crazy to assume they could hold up against Terrell Suggs and Jarrett Johnson, yet they did just that in the two games against the hated Ravens.

Sure, they looked like total crap against the Chargers and probably deserved to lose by more than they did.  They also looked like total crap against the Browns, then went on the road and beat Baltimore with their third string quarterback.  Since everyone's down on them this week, they probably have the "no one outside this locker room believed we could do it" mentality, even though the current Vegas line has them favored by a point.

So...

I DON'T THINK YOU CAN DO IT, STEELERS.  JUST TRY TO PROVE ME WRONG.

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Cowboys 23

My Prediction... Pain: Steelers at Hated Ravens Preview

I have a feeling that this game is going to suck.  A lot.  Like, suck more than the last two games, if that's even possible.  In the Sunday night game two weeks ago, I at least saw a silver lining, a way that the Steelers might be able to pull it off.  By the time kickoff rolled around, I actually thought they had a good shot at winning.  This week?  Not so much.

First and foremost, Unibrow is significantly better at home than he is on the road.  One of the reasons I thought the Steelers might be able to beat the hated Ravens in Week 11 was that he loses about 40 quarterback rating points when he's not in Baltimore.  He didn't play very well at Heinz Field, but now he gains those 40 points this week.  Torrey Smith was shut down by Ike Taylor in the last game and Ray Rice was kept pretty much in check.  The only way this game stays close is if that happens again. Flacco will be able to spread the ball around to Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin and will be more effective even if Smith and Rice don't blow up, but we're looking at shades of the 2011 opener if they do.

Then you have the fact that the offense probably won't be able to get going with Charlie Batch behind center.  I'm guessing he'll be on a short leash, but Brian Hoyer and Byron Leftwich aren't exactly attractive alternatives.  Baltimore's defense has been surprisingly soft against the run this season, but they were able to hold Jonathan Dwyer and Rashard Mendenhall to 88 yards on 23 attempts.  The Steelers had 134 yards total, but 31 of that came on Leftwich's touchdown run, which skews the average. 

In order to have a shot at winning this game, they need to keep it low scoring and ugly like the last game.  In order to do that, they need to run the ball effectively and take some of the pressure off Batch.  Unfortunately, Batch doesn't scare anyone, especially the hated Ravens.  They'll stack 15 guys in the box and make Batch beat them.  I don't think there's a lot of people that believe he can beat them, possibly not even Batch himself.

While the logical center of my brain knows that there's a very low statistical probability of them committing eight turnovers again, I can't convince the rest of my brain that it's most likely not going to happen.  I can seriously see six or seven turnovers, even if they don't get to eight.  If they lose the turnover battle in a big way, they're going to lose big.

There are a lot of factors that point to this game ending in a blowout and some serious tears, but I don't think it's going to be that lopsided.  Yes, Charlie Batch is a shadow of his former self and yes, the hated Ravens still have a lot of talent on defense.  Yes, Flacco is lights out at home, but he's also struggled against the Steelers throughout his career, regardless of where the game's being played.  They don't have Ben Roethisberger -- finally, officially ruled out today -- or LaMarr Woodley, but they get Antonio Brown back and Troy Polamalu is apparently going to play a significant role on defense. 

With Brown back, that takes the defensive focus away from Mike Wallace and allows Heath and Emmanuel Sanders more room to roam.  Sure, Batch is still throwing them the ball, but putting Brown back in the mix makes this a better offense.  Batch has a faster delivery than Leftwich, so that means they can mix in some quick screens and make Baltimore think twice about loading up the line of scrimmage and leaving Wallace, Sanders, and Brown free to roam after the catch.  One missed tackle could mean a huge play.

If they get something out of the passing game, that opens things up for the running game, they don't turn the ball over, and Troy does something spectacular on defense, then maybe there's a chance for victory.  But... I highly doubt that all those things happen on Sunday.

They'll accomplish enough of those objectives to keep the game from being a laugher, but I think they ultimately fall short.

Prediction:
Hated Ravens 23, Steelers 13

Walking Wounded: Steelers at Browns Preview

I picked the Steelers in this week's Pick Em because I think that they have just enough to beat the Browns.  I don't think it's going to be a blowout.  I think it's going to be a close, ugly game, though I don't know that it's going to be low scoring.  It has all the hallmarks of a game that should be low scoring, so that's probably why it won't be.

The Browns are better and they are headed in the right direction, but they're still a bad team.  They have a rookie quarterback and Dick LeBeau tends to destroy rookie quarterbacks (see: Griffin, Robert III).  Charlie Batch isn't great and his arm belongs in the Smithsonian, but the one thing he can still do is start a game or two and beat bad teams.  He did it last year when the Steelers needed a win over the hapless Rams and I think he can do it again this year.

He'll take care of the ball, Todd Haley will call a conservative game on offense, and the defense should be able to confuse and confound Brandon Weeden enough that Cleveland won't be able to run away with the game.

Now, the big thing that concerns me is Trent Richardson.  He's finally healthy -- he had a rib issue for a number games earlier in the season, but didn't miss any time -- he runs hard, and he can catch passes out of the backfield.  He's basically a bigger, slower Ray Rice.  The Steelers were able to mostly contain Rice on Sunday night and I think they'll be able to do the same against Richardson.  They just need to make sure that they wrap him up and bring him to the ground.  The tackling has been superb thus far this season, but Richardson is incredibly difficult to bring down.  He has live feet and a powerful upper body, so arm tackles aren't going to cut it.  They need to square up and fire into his mid-section, otherwise he's going to bounce off defenders and make this game a nightmare to watch.

Since I didn't write a review of the loss to the hated Ravens, I'm going to add a few personnel notes in here.

First of all, if Leftwich hurt his ribs in the first quarter and was ineffective -- and he was -- then Batch needs to go into the game.  They have Batch on the roster to go into the game in emergency situations like that.  That's the whole reason to have him on the team.  If you don't trust him to go into that situation, then don't have him on the roster.  If you don't trust him to back up Leftwich when Ben Roethlisberger is hurt, don't have him on the roster.  They signed Brian Hoyer earlier this week.  Hoyer was Tom Brady's back up in New England for the past three seasons, but they eventually lost faith in him and cut him on August 31st.  He's been available since that date.  If they didn't trust Batch to come in and Hoyer was available before the Baltimore game, why didn't they just sign him last week?  Why not sign him, then he has another week of practice under his belt and can potentially start against the Browns this week?

Ultimately, I blame Mike Tomlin for the loss against Baltimore.  He kept an injured Leftwich in the game when Batch couldn't have been any worse.  Then he claimed that Leftwich got hurt at some point in the fourth quarter, not the first quarter.  But... if Tomlin knew that Leftwich got hurt at some point during the game, why was he still in there to skip the ball 30 yards to Mike Wallace when Wallace was 50 yards away.  Batch couldn't have made that throw, either, but Leftwich also shouldn't have been in the position to need to make that throw.

Then you have the fact that they called two timeouts in the red zone to set up a really complicated passing play on third and two that ended up failing.  If they scored there, I can't guarantee that they would've won, but they would've at least had the lead.  You don't need to call two timeouts to know to hand the ball to Jonathan Dwyer (or Rashard Mendenhall) twice.  If the staff didn't trust Leftwich in that situation and needed to make sure they had just the right play called, then they should've played it safe and just handed the ball off.

I have a severe man-crush on Tomlin and I can't stay mad at him, but I have to say Sunday night's loss is on him.  Obviously, we need to continue to evaluate and press on.  Hopefully, we can stack some wins.  It's a process.

Oh, hey, Plax is back in town!  I think he can help out in the red zone, but that's about it.  Given the fact that he's only valuable in the red zone and opponents know this, that means they're going to take him away in the only situation where he's valuable.  Maybe that will open things up for the other guys -- like Heath and Paulson especially -- but I don't think that adds enough value to the team to offset all the negatives that Plax brings to the table.  When word came out that they signed Burress, a co-worker of mine IMed me and asked me what I thought about it.  I said, "I think it's great.  An old head case that gets hurt easily is exactly what this team needs."  Even though it was in text, he was able to pick up on the sarcasm.

Overall, this has been a very negative post, but I do believe there is a silver lining.  This is a team that excels in the face of adversity.  They play their best when their backs are against the wall and they feel as though nobody believes in them.  At that point, they circle the wagons and they trust the other guys in the locker room.  Tomlin is also at his best in these kinds of situations.

I think they can use that motivation to beat the Browns and possibly beat the Ravens.  They only need 3 or 4 more wins to secure a playoff spot, but the division title is probably out of reach at this point.  I think the season is far from over and I think there's a real possibility that they could get on a little roll, just in time for Roethlisberger or Leftwich to come back and lead them in the playoffs.

For this week, I say they win, but it isn't pretty.

Prediction:
Steelers 21, Browns 17

Hate to Do This: Hated Ravens at Steelers Preview

I hate the hated Ravens so much that I refer to them as "the hated Ravens."  I still hate Brian Billick and he hasn't coached for the team in like five years.  I hate Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and even Elvis Grbac (mostly because of the weird name, but he did play for Baltimore for a season).  I hate the hated Ravens so much that they almost made me hate Rod Woodson.

But, there's one thing that I hate more than the hated Ravens: Jay Cutler's face.  Maybe there's two things.  Jay Cutler's face and picking the hated Ravens to beat the Steelers.  I already went on record picking them in this week's Pick Em, but I wanted to go on record here and explain how much picking Baltimore to win Sunday night sucked.

I think the hated Ravens are going to win and I hate saying that.

Now I'm going to talk about what the Steelers need to do to win.  It's not as impossible as it might seem.

Consider the following:

1. The Steelers are 4-0 at home (sure, they haven't beaten any good teams there yet, but they're undefeated.)
2. Baltimore is 2-2 on the road and their two road wins are against the Chiefs (with a Orioles-Royals score of 9-6) and the Browns (25-15).
3. The Unibrow sucks on the road this season.  Home numbers: 113-173-1612-10-3-108.3.  Road numbers: 71-136-719-3-4-62.7.  He gains 45 quarterback rating points and four yards per attempt at home.  Or, more importantly, he loses four yards an attempt and 45 rating points on the road.
4. For the first time in recent memory, the hated Ravens aren't defending the run well.  They rank 26th in the league in yards allowed, giving up 132 rushing yards a game.
5. In four home games, the Steelers have given up an average of 12.3 points per game.

Those are all good trends, because the Steelers need to do the following things to win the game:

1. Avoid getting off to a slow start.
2. Not turn the ball over.
3. Make it a low scoring game.
4. Run the ball effectively and frequently.

Trouble is, I think they'll only be able to accomplish #2.  They've done an exceptional job taking care of the ball thus far this season and I think that they'll err on the side of caution on offense -- no high risk pass plays, running backs keep both hands on the ball.  But, that's only one of the four things they need to do to win.

I think they'll get off to a slow start.  The hated Ravens know the Steelers almost as well as they know themselves.  They know that this team can't come back from a big deficit without Ben Roethlisberger.  Baltimore's primary objective will be to get off to a fast start and get the Steelers off balance as quickly as possible.

Byron Leftwich won't be as bad as he was against the Chiefs.  He'll have a full week of practice under his belt for this game and Todd Haley will put together a game plan that works with Leftwich's strengths.  There has been a lot of chatter about the fact that Leftwich is a bad fit for Haley's offense.  But, the fact of the matter is that Haley designed this year's offense -- and last week's game plan -- around Ben Roethlisberger and the other personnel the Steelers have on the roster.  When they hired him as offensive coordinator, I wrote about the fact that he's a personnel guy, not a system guy.  When he had Kurt Warner and a bunch of great receivers in Arizona, he called a lot of passes.  When he had Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones in Kansas City, he called a lot of runs.  When he realized that the Steelers had a bunch of explosive playmakers at receiver and an offensive line that had trouble protecting its quarterback, he called a lot of quick timing passes and screens.  When Roethlisberger Monday night's game, they already had the game plan installed and he couldn't start calling stuff that was completely different than what they had practiced all week.  On Sunday night, his game plan will be optimized to make the most of what Leftwich brings to the table.  The problem there is that it's not just Leftwich.

Antonio Brown will probably miss this game.  Rashard Mendenhall will probably start after a long layoff.  The offensive line still has pass protection issue.  There are a lot of moving parts that are either unavailable or rusty.  Couple that with the fact that Baltimore will want to do whatever they can to start fast and shut the Steelers down early and you can see how it's hard to imagine that they'll avoid getting off to slow start.

I think that they can keep the game low scoring even if they get off to a slow start, but I don't think that means they'll win.  If they fall behind 14-0 or 10-0, they'll eventually rally, but I think they'll fall short.

Running the ball effectively and frequently is the last thing on the list, but it's also the most important.  It affects whether or not they'll be able to accomplish #1 and #4.  If they start out running the ball well, that takes the early pressure off Leftwich.  If they keep running the ball well, that helps keep the ball away from Unibrow and the ever-deadly Ray Rice.  It also sets up the play action passing game, which will slow down the pass rush of the hated Ravens and make things easier on Leftwich.

But... the Ravens know all this, which is why they'll stack the box, look to stop the run at all costs, and force Leftwich to beat them.  They'll also bring a lot of extra defenders on the blitz when Haley does call a pass, knowing that they don't have the personnel to cover the Steelers receivers for more than three seconds. 

Most of the pressure will come up the middle, since Leftwich doesn't have the mobility to break outside the tackle box and extend the play like Roethlisberger does.  That's a problem because the interior linemen -- though they've done an exceptional job blowing up big holes between the tackles in the running game -- have had some serious issues in pass protection.

So... if the Steelers can run the ball well out of the gate and if they don't turn the ball over and if the hated Ravens defense doesn't embed Leftwich into the Heinz Field turf in the first half and if they can keep Ray Rice contained, they'll be able to win a close game. 

And, while I'm asking for stuff, I'd like a pony.

Prediction:
Hated Ravens 17, Steelers 10

Good News and Bad News: Chiefs at Steelers

At the end of regulation, Weidman turned to me and we had the following conversation.

Weidman: Here's what's going to happen: Chiefs win the toss, they elect to receive, then they finally play like the Chiefs and turn the ball over.  Suisham wins it with a field goal.

Me: Turnover could also be a pick six.  That also works.

Weidman: No.  Suisham needs to win it.  That's what needs to happen.

Me: OK, then.  That works, too.

The game played out exactly as Weidman had foreseen it.  That was the coolest thing that happened last night.

Sure, the Steelers won, which was cool.  But, it was cool like finding out that the girl you hooked up with at the bar last month isn't pregnant.  Or cool like discovering that the Check Engine light in your car came on because it had been more than six months since your last oil change.  It's more a feeling of relief than anything.

Good news first:

1. A win is a win.  Lest you forget, I am always here to point that fact out, especially after an especially ugly victory.
2. The Steelers committed fewer penalties and allowed fewer sacks than Kansas City.  I don't care if the Chiefs are 1-7, that's still something that's good to keep track of, especially this season.
3. Even though the defense didn't force turnovers in the quantities we expected, they got one when it really mattered.
4. You can talk all you want about how the defense choked and allowed a 4th and 15 conversion that led to Kansas City tying the game, but they also held Matt Cassel to a 46 quarterback rating and held Jamaal Charles in check in the second half.  The game could've gotten out of hand early in the first or midway through the third, but the defense didn't allow that to happen.
5. Lawrence Timmons is having himself one hell of a season.
6. Looks like Ben Roethlisberger isn't done for the season, which is kind of what I expected to hear this morning after watching his right arm dangle at his side as he left the field last night.

Bad News:

1. They didn't run the ball effectively.  That allowed the secondary to play tight on the Steelers receivers, which allowed the cornerbacks to fill in hard in run support, which led to even less effective running.  I think it was a combination of a strong effort by the Chiefs defensive line, a lackluster performance by the interior of the Steeler offensive line, and the fact that Mike Tomlin benched Isaac Redman after he fumbled in the first quarter.  Redman came back, but neither he nor Jonathan Dwyer was able to find a rhythm.  It was a little bit of all those factors, but deciding to take Redman out was the only thing that could really be controlled.  I think it held the running game back, but I might also just be mad because Redman's on my fantasy team and I needed another big game out of him.
2. Jon Gruden was droning on about the fact that the Chiefs were carving the left side of the Steeler defense up in the run game.  At least he was in the first half, when they were.  In the second half, when Ziggy Hood started staying in his lanes and engaging two blockers by shooting the gap like he's supposed to, Gruden didn't mention why they were no longer having success on that side.  Hood didn't suddenly forget what he was supposed to do, he's just inconsistent.  Gap discipline and tackling fundamentals had been two strong areas for the defense the last month.  In the first half, they weren't there, which is part of the reason Kansas City jumped to a 10-0 lead. Again, not taking anything away from the Chiefs offensive line, but that's part of the reason they were successful.
3. With five minutes remaining in the third quarter, Byron Leftwich decided he wanted to throw a pass.  He's still winding up.  Dear God, it takes forever for that man to throw a football.  With the way the protection has been against quality pass rushers, that's going to be an issue.  Oh, hey, look at that!  They play the hated Ravens next week.
4. They're going to have trouble throwing the ball and running the ball without Roethlisberger in the line-up, as evidenced by their production on offense in the second half.
5. One turnover forced in 4+ quarters, zero turnovers forced in regulation, against one of the most generous offenses in the history of the NFL.
6. Really, I could nit pick about a dozen or so different things, but the important thing is that the Chiefs managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and the Steelers got a win.

Roethlisberger hurt his shoulder and no one -- not even the doctors, because that's what tests and MRIs are for -- knows for sure how bad it is and how long he's going to be out.  It doesn't look like something that could land him on injured reserve, but it's definitely not a minor injury and could be a nagging issue (like Troy's calf this season and Woodley's hamstring last season).

As much as I like to kid Leftwich for taking 35 minutes to wind up and throw a pass and Charlie Batch for being 100 years old, they're not bad quarterbacks.  Earlier today, I was talking to a couple of guys I work with and I described Leftwich as "about average" and Batch as "not awesome."  What exactly that means is up for interpretation (hi there, Comments section!), but there's no getting around this fact: Neither of those guys is anywhere near as good as Ben Roethlisberger.

They'll be able to win some games with Leftwich or Batch under center -- they may, possibly, even be able to split with Baltimore -- but they're not winning the division with those guys and they're definitely not making a playoff run without Roethlisberger.

Basically, the really bad news is that we all just have to wait and see just how bad Ben's shoulder is hurt and how long it will take for him to come back.

It's Jamal the Rage: Chiefs at Steelers Preview

Here's the thing: The Steelers need to win this game and they absolutely should win this game.  I went with a horrible, pun-laden title for this post, because there's not a whole lot to say.

The Kansas City Chiefs are an awful, awful team.  We're eight games into the season and they haven't had a lead in regulation yet.  Both of their quarterbacks have been concussed at some point this year.  Jamaal Charles, who was supposed to be a superstar coming off an ACL injury, has been largely underwhelming.  Dwayne Bowe is in a contract year and he's projected to end up with 90 catches for a little over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns.  They just cut cornerback Stanford Routt after signing him to a long term deal in the offseason.  Opposing quarterbacks have a 106.3 passer rating against them.  They have a -20 turnover differential and a -107 point differential.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are certainly trending up.  The offensive line is coming together, the defense is playing tough and disciplined, and special teams is starting to turn the corner.

All this makes it look like Monday night's game is going to be a blowout.  While I hope that happens -- I could always go for a good blowout -- I have a sinking "Tyler Palko Game" feeling about this one.

The Steelers tend to play down to the level of competition.  Many of the guys on Kansas City's defense that were on the roster last year are on the roster this year.  The same defensive backs that were able to jam the Steelers receivers at the line of scrimmage, then turn and run with them down the field last season, are still on the roster.  Last season, the Steelers couldn't get anything going on the ground, then tried to pass their way out of it.  When that failed, they hung on for dear life and narrowly defeated a Chiefs team that started Tyler Palko at quarterback.

Despite all that, I still think the Steelers are going to roll on Monday.

1. They shouldn't struggle running the ball, which should give them balance on offense.  It will also give them the ability to neutralize Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, who are the only two guys they have to fear when Ben Roethlisberger drops back to pass.
2. Since Bruce Arians is not calling the plays, the "dink and dunk" passes that Todd Haley has been calling should make it tough for Kansas City to pressure Roethlisberger and help him get into a rhythm early.
3. Dwayne Bowe does not scare me and I think Ike Taylor matches up with him very well.  I don't think Bowe is going to win this game for the Chiefs.
4. Jamaal Charles is the wild card.  He could take over the game like he did in New Orleans earlier this season and pull Kansas City out of Suckville.  However, I don't see that happening.  He's not getting the ball as much as he used to and, even when he has gotten the ball, he hasn't done much with the opportunities.

Even if Charles does explode on Monday night, I think the Steelers will be able to score enough to offset that.  Actually, considering the fact that I'm starting Charles on two of my fantasy teams, him having a huge game wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.  Again, even if he does, I don't think the Chiefs have enough to win at Heinz Field.

They have too much to overcome.  Now, in last week's preview, I said that the Steelers had too much to overcome to beat the Giants (facing a really good team, on the road, emotional situation, they'd been under performing on the road), and the Steelers ended up winning.  This situation is different, though, because Kansas City would need to overcome the fact that they're just not very good.  That's too much for any team to overcome in a normal situation, nonetheless playing on the road against a team that's on a roll like the Steelers, who will be pumped up in prime time in front of a home crowd.

But... something like 150 yards and two touchdowns for Charles?  I think that would be just fine.

Prediction:

Steelers 34, Chiefs 17

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at New York Giants

Well, I guess they did overcome, despite the fact that I didn't think there was any way that they could.  That's the best news of all.  They overcame an emotionally charged, extremely talented Giants team on the road.  They overcame scheduling issues, a ten point fourth quarter deficit, some very questionable officiating calls in the first half, and an incredibly foolish decision to fake a field goal instead of going for the points (more on this in the "bad news" section.)

Aside from the fake field goal debacle, special teams actually came up huge in this game.  They out-gained the Giants 249-100 on punt and kick returns, Suisham converted his only field goal attempt, Drew Butler didn't have any of his punts returned, dropping two of four inside the 20, and there were no holding or block in the back penalties.  This was the first solid effort from the kicking game all season and I hope they build on this success the rest of the season, even if Antonio Brown misses significant time due to his ankle injury.

They dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  Isaac Redman averaged 5.7 yards per carry and New York's backs averaged only 3.1.  Andre Brown and Ahmad Bradshaw are both quality players and keeping them to 68 yards on 22 carries is a huge win.  Eli Manning completed less than half of his passes for 125 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception.  The Steelers also managed to sack him twice, which is quite an accomplishment.  Not only had the struggled to bring down opposing quarterbacks thus far this season, Eli had only been sacked seven times in eight games coming into Sunday.

Victor Cruz was targeted 11 times and only caught five passes for 67 yards and no touchdowns.  Hopefully, that means that Ike Taylor is at least close to his 2011 regular season form and he's left the nightmares of the playoff game at Denver and the early season behind him.  Keenan Lewis had two huge penalties called on him (don't agree with the first one that went for 41 yards and set up the touchdown, but whatever), but I thought he played a great game.  He was pretty much everywhere, as was Lawrence Timmons.  Cortez Allen is vastly improved and LaMarr Woodley is starting to step out of James Harrison's shadow to become the focus of the pass rush.

They had a ten minute edge in time of possession, ran 69 plays to 48 for the Giants, were 6 for 13 on third down and New York was 2 for 10.  If you add in kick return yards and subtract penalty yards, they out-gained the Giants 479-242.

Even though the offensive line is still struggling in pass protection -- four sacks and a forced fumble returned for a touchdown on 34 dropbacks -- they're blowing up huge holes on the inside and Foster, Pouncey, and Colon deserve all the credit for that.  Paulson and Heath, as well as fullback David Johnson deserve a pat on the back as well.

It was a huge road win, a huge confidence boost, and they deserve a lot of credit for overcoming everything they overcame to pull out the victory.  It was the most complete game they've played in all phases thus far this season.

Bad news is that they only won by four points. 

All the stats I quoted earlier would point to at least a ten point margin of victory, if not two touchdowns.  Ike Taylor let an interception slip through his fingers in the end zone, though it would've been called back on the shoulder-to-arm penalty called on Ryan Clark.

Sure, the Giants scored a defensive touchdown and that's going to tilt things in terms of stats.  Yes, the two pass interference penalties on Lewis were each for 40+ yards.  Those were all big plays and New York made them.

The Steelers were also 2 for 4 in the red zone -- a problem area for them all year -- and they had three drives that started in Giants territory, but yielded zero points.  As they move into the second half of the season, they're going to need to improve their efficiency in the red zone and cut down on penalties. 

They appear to have gelled along the offensive line and should be at least good in that area if not great, so long as they can avoid injuries.  As much as I hate to agree with Phil Simms, he made a great point about the defense yesterday: They're finally starting to get healthy and a lot of their key players are returning to their old form.  Woodley has hopefully put his hamstring issues behind him.  Harrison's knee is improving.  Casey Hampton and Brett Keisel look like they're at 100%.  Larry Foote has been solid.  It looks like these two huge problem areas -- consistency on defense and along the offensive line -- are at least no longer problem areas and may even be turning into strengths.

They just need to keep finishing games, put the ball in the end zone when they get inside the 20, and avoid dumb penalties.

It's also concerning me that Mike Tomlin is "going with his gut" a little too much.  The fake field goal was a dumb idea.  Having Suisham try a 90 yard field goal in Tennessee was a dumb idea.  Going for two in Cincy was a dumb idea.  Fortunately, only one of those bad calls has cost the Steelers a game.

If he wanted to go for the throat and score a touchdown -- or at least a new set of downs -- he should've just handed the ball to Redman and taken his chances.  Redman averaged 5.7 yards per carry and gained 90 yards after first contact in yesterday's game.  Give him the ball and see what happens.  You have a much better chance of a running back that's primary responsibility is taking the ball and running with it gaining a foot and a half than you do pitching it to an awkward Canadian that usually just kicks the ball and watches other people make a play.

Then there's the fact that the kicker is seven yards behind the line of scrimmage when the ball is snapped.  He has to make up those seven yards before he gets to a point where he's actually gaining anything.  Weidman actually called the fake field goal and I thought he was a crazy person.  Turns out, both he and Tomlin were crazy.

Now, I love Mike Tomlin and I can never stay mad at him.  The decision didn't cost them the game and we all need to move on.  I'm just concerned that, moving forward, Tomlin's gut is going to cost us a game that's much bigger than this one.  He had his issues in Super Bowl XLV, he'll have his issues again.  His gut will write checks that the Steelers can't cash.  I just hope it doesn't come up wrong in a critical point in a bigger game.

But, HEY, the important thing is that they just scored a huge victory -- a game that I had penciled in as a loss at the beginning of the season -- and they appear to be on the right track, headed in the right direction.

Bullseye on Ike: Steelers at Bengals Preview

With only five games on the books, I had to say that any game this early in the season is a must-win game.  However, I'm now going to say that Sunday night's match-up against the Bengals is a must-win game.  Allow me to explain...

On Saturday, I was at Primanti's and someone asked the bar if the Steelers were going to go to the playoffs this season.  I immediately said that there was no way, but everyone else that jumped into the debate had two excellent points:

1. The AFC is thoroughly mediocre this year and there aren't many teams that are good enough to fill all six spots.
2. The Steelers have Ben Roethlisberger and a great quarterback gives you a better-than-average chance to win 9 or 10 games.

I knew #2 already, but I hadn't thought about #1 that much.  If you think about it, the Patriots will most likely win the AFC East and no one else in that division is good enough to finish above .500.  Same with the South, but substitute the Texans for the Patriots.  In the West, the Chiefs and Raiders aren't winning more than six games each, so that leaves you with the division winner (Broncos or Chargers) and whoever doesn't win the division.  As much as it pains me to say it, the hated Ravens are in the driver's seat in the North, even with all the issues they're having on defense.  The Browns are more competitive, but they're not going to the playoffs.  That leaves the Steelers and Bengals.

In order to make the playoffs, the Steelers need to sweep the Bengals (for tiebreaker purposes if nothing else), which is why they must win on Sunday in order to stay in the postseason hunt.

This is a game that they can win and probably should win, but the same could be said of the games against the Titans and Raiders.

Cincinnati has some talent on offense, but the only player that has game-changing ability is AJ Green.  Last season, Ike Taylor faced Green twice and held him pretty much in check, to the tune of seven catches for 123 yards and two touchdowns.  Given Green's production thus far this season and how god-awful Taylor has been since the start of the Denver playoff game last season, Green might post numbers like that on Sunday alone.  If he does, the Steelers won't be able to do enough to win. 

They can't get involved in shootouts and they can't have a situation where they're trying to protect a small lead late in the game.  If Green explodes, he'll probably blow up at the wrong time and the Steelers will move to 0-4 on the road.  Taylor needs to play somewhere close to his 2011 level for the team to win.  He could get help over the top, they could put Keenan Lewis or Cortez Allen on him in certain situations, but ultimately Taylor is the guy that needs to step up, put his failures from January onward behind him, and lock down on Green.  The Bengals know that Ike has been burned more times than a near-sighted crackhead this season, so they're going to go after him early and he needs to step up early and often.

Andy Dalton is the best quarterback Cincinnati has had since 2006, but that's not saying too much.  He's regressed a little since last season, defenses have enough films to adequately game plan for him, and the coaching staff is asking him to do more, all of which have combined to make him less effective and dangerous this season.  I wouldn't call it a "sophomore slump" it's just a combination of factors that has turned him into just a good quarterback.  He's not going to put the team on his shoulders and carry them to victory.

Jermaine Gresham and The Law Firm are fine players, but they aren't the guys that are going to make or break this game.

They've got some talent in the front four, but the back seven is kind of shaky.  When they've won games this season, they've done so because they put a bunch of points up on the board and their opponents weren't able to keep pace.  When the Steelers have lost, they've done so because they allowed their opponents to put a bunch of points on the board and couldn't keep pace.

Rashard Mendenhall and Issac Redman are out -- either officially or unofficially -- which means two things:

1. Out of desperation, I picked up Jonathan Dwyer in one of my fantasy leagues.
2. Ben Roethlisberger is going to have to win this game on the strength of his right arm and his ability to escape Cincy's front four.

Above all else, he needs to improve his accuracy and timing with his receivers inside the red zone.  The last two weeks, he's been great between the 20s, but was pretty far off target once he got inside the 20.  That's why the Steelers attempted seven field goals the last two games and that's one of the reasons they lost to the Titans last Thursday night.  I know that saying "you need to score touchdowns when you get in the red zone" is not expert football analysis, but that doesn't mean it's not true.  It's also especially critical for Sunday night's game considering the fact that the Bengals can score points in a hurry and the Steelers seem to need every last point of cushioning they can manage on the road in the fourth quarter.

If the guys subbing for the injured players step up and play above their potential and the guys that have played below their potential just far -- like, say, Ike Taylor --  play up to or above their potential, then they'll win this game.  If Green goes off or it's a tight game with five minutes left to play, I have to say that I don't have enough faith in this team -- to say nothing of the fact that the Bengals are actually pretty damned good -- to think they'll be able to pull off a road victory.

I just think that this is still a talented, veteran group with a solid coaching staff that will dig deep and win a game that they can -- and must -- win.  If they lose, then this is a declining, aging group with a solid coaching staff that will look to finish the season with a respectable record, for the sake of pride.

Like I said, it's a must-win.

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Bengals 17

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Raiders

Not a lot of good news, particularly after an ugly, frustrating loss like this one, but let's get the good news out of the way first:

1. Ben Roethlisberger played a fantastic game, only getting sacked once in 50 dropbacks, not throwing an interception, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, throwing four touchdown passes, and going 8-for-14 on third down.  I know the Raiders were thin in the secondary -- safety Michael Huff played the entire game at cornerback -- but this was still a very impressive effort by Roethlisberger, especially considering that the running game was non-existent.
2. I like the fact that they got Mike Wallace and Heath Miller prominently involved in the passing game.

Bad News:

1. The pass rush didn't generate nearly enough pressure and hasn't all season.  The only time they get sacks or generate pressure is either when LaMarr Woodley makes an exceptional individual effort or they rush six or more guys.  They don't have the talent in the secondary to cover receivers for more than three seconds.  Most teams don't.  I'd like to say this issue will be fixed when/if James Harrison comes back, but I don't think it will.  I know that Harrison -- or even Jason Worilds -- would be a big upgrade in terms of pass rush ability, but I don't know that upgrading one spot is going to be the silver bullet that fixes everything.
2. They went to prevent defense mode far too early, which is one reason they blew two ten point fourth quarter leads.
3. Rashard Mendenhall can't come back soon enough.  I think it's smart that the Steelers have been trying not to rush him back, but I also think they can't wait any longer.  Issac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer and Baron Batch aren't bad players, they're just not as explosive as Mendenhall.  They don't have the speed to get to the edge, so defenses can focus on clogging up the middle and waiting for Redman and Dwyer and Batch to run into them.  Since defenses don't need to worry about protecting the edge, it makes it easier for them to defend the run.  When it becomes easier to defend the run, they have to worry about it less and can focus on defending the pass.  All of this means that it's going to get harder and harder for Roethlisberger to keep having the season he's having.
4. Special teams hasn't been very special thus far this season and yesterday was another example.  Shaun Suisham had two line drive kickoffs that didn't make it to the end zone and Oakland returned both of them for a total of 87 yards.  Antonio Brown had a punt return for a touchdown called back. At that point in the game, it would have made the score 21-7 if it counted and would have probably sent the Raiders into a tailspin.  Instead, Dwyer fumbles, Oakland scores, and it's suddenly a ball game again.
5. Technically, they've "forced" two turnovers thus far this season, but they haven't actually forced any turnovers.  One turnover was the result of a muffed punt in the Jets game and the other was an interception by Ryan Clark that occurred after Denarius Moore slipped and fell down.  They've only committed three turnovers, which is good, but the defense isn't good enough -- or young enough -- to face drive after drive and not be expected to buckle.

There were a number of things that went wrong yesterday, but the biggest cause for concern is the fact that Oakland is hardly an offensive powerhouse and they scored 34 points and what was supposed to be a solid defense.  The Raiders scored 14 points against the Chargers in Week 1 and only 13 against the Dolphins in Week 2.  The Steelers have already allowed two opponents to score 30 or more points against them and we're only in Week 3.  They allowed 30 points in a game once in 2010 and once in 2011.

Their issues on defense go beyond just the pass rush, but getting guys healthy and finding ways to get more pressure on the quarterback is the best "quick fix" option that they have.  Hopefully Harrison, Mendenhall, and Polamalu will return after the bye and things will get closer to normal. 

But, I have a feeling that there really is no quick fix and that we could be in for a long season.  This isn't based just off the loss to the Raiders or the loss to the Broncos, even though both of those sucked.  It's based off the fact that they've been underwhelming thus far this season and I think things will get worse before they get better.

Old Rivalries Die Hard: Steelers at Raiders Preview

The trouble with a post like this is that I don't want to sound overconfident and have fate smack me in the face for my hubris.  This is definitely a game that the Steelers should win, but I have no idea whether or not they actually will win it, because there are a lot of factors in play.

First of all, the Oakland Raiders do not suck.  They sucked in 2006 and 2009 and the Steelers let them hang around in those games and ended up losing to a couple of the crappiest NFL teams of this century.  They were actually decent in 2010, finished with an 8-8 record, and came into Heinz Field that season with a respectable 5-4 record, but then the Steelers completely destroyed them 35-3.  So, now that they're actually a decent team this year -- not really a good team, but a decent team that has some talent -- does that mean the Steelers roll, or does that mean that they come into Oakland and lay a giant turd where the pitcher's mound should be?  I have no idea.

Second of all, Ben Roethlisberger and the Bay Area do not get along.  He threw four picks in that 2006 debacle, two of which were returned for touchdowns.  We all know how things worked out for him in San Francisco on Monday night last December (granted, he was playing on one leg).

Thirdly, I can't tell yet if this Steelers team is a solid squad that knows how to get the job done or if they're a week-to-week team that is inconsistent.  My guess is that they're a week-to-week team, because of three factors.

1. The defense doesn't get pressure on the quarterback and they don't force turnovers.  That means that they have to hope that the opposing team's quarterback implodes every week like Mark Sanchez did last week.  They got lucky with the horrible quarterbacks they played last season, but you can't count on bad quarterback play every week.  You need to take the ball away and you need to kill drives with sacks and explosive plays.
2. They don't run the ball well, but they're committed to the run.  That means a lot of 3rd and 8 and 3rd and 9 situations for Roethlisberger.  They've been great on third down thus far this season -- converting 19 of 34 through two games and 8 of 15 last week against the Jets -- but they're not going to be able to keep that pace up.  That ten minute drive in the fourth quarter against New York last week was awesome, but it's a three-and-out or a drive that stalls at midfield if Roethlisberger doesn't convert some key third downs.
3. Too many old guys and too many fragile guys on the offensive line.  I have a feeling that they're going to use at least 15 more combinations on the offensive line this season.  I have a feeling that the injuries to James Harrison and Troy are going to linger.  I have a feeling that they're not done putting guys on injured reserve.  The "next man up" played well in Week 2, but I don't think we can count on that kind of consistent performance from the back-ups all season.

I say all this because, after thinking about the Jets game last week, I don't think it was a dominant performance.  I don't think they beat up the Jets or even wore them down.  I think, like the Seahawks game last year, they just kind of leaned on the Jets until they fell over.  Once the lead got to ten points and the clock kept winding, you knew that Sanchez wasn't going to be able to pull the game out.  The rest was just details for the box score.

And, hey, there's nothing wrong with winning, but I'm just saying it's way too early to start thinking Super Bowl, or even playoffs.  At least that's how I feel this week.

That's why this is an important game, even though it's supposed to be a snooze fest that the Steelers should win easy. 

Above all else, they need to run the ball effectively.  They're not going to blow the Raiders off the ball -- I don't think that they're good enough up front to blow anyone off the ball, to say nothing of the fact that Oakland's front seven is pretty tough and athletic -- but they need to do better than the 2.6 yards per carry they're currently averaging.  One thing they can do to help that average right off the bat is to take toss plays and sweep plays out of the playbook until Rashard Mendenhall come back.  Issac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are solid backs, but they don't have to quickness you need to get to the edge.  Todd Haley needs to realize that and come to terms with the fact that this offense can't afford to lose eight yards a play on those runs simply because they're in the playbook.

If they can average four yards a carry, then they'll get themselves into third-and-managable situations.  Better yet, they may be able to avoid third down altogether, which would be a huge step up.  The fact that they've run 133 plays on offense and 34 of those of have been on third down is a bad sign.  By contrast, they opponents have run 106 plays and have faced 21 third downs.  Slow, plodding drives are good for killing the clock and playing keep-away, but they're really difficult to sustain and it tends to put the defense in a bad spot if they're expecting to get a breather and the offense goes three-and-out.

I think they should be able to cruise if they run the ball effectively and I think they will be able to run it effectively.  The Oakland secondary is banged up, which should help the third down conversion rate.  Carson Palmer is still a serviceable quarterback and he has no love for the Steelers, but he's no longer a guy that keeps defensive coordinators up at night.  Their receivers are big and fast, but they have trouble separating from defenders.  If Ike Taylor and Keenan Lewis play tight and physical like they did against the Jets receivers in last week's game, they should be fine.

Darren McFadden scares the hell out of me.  But, he only has 54 yards on 26 carries this season and has been far more dangerous as a receiver.  I'm not saying he won't break out in this game and basically take it over, but I don't think it's very likely.  I think Lawrence Timmons can handle him in coverage coming out of the backfield and I think the rest of the front seven will be able to stay in their gaps and keep him bottled up in the running game.

If they can run effectively, contain McFadden, and Roethlisberger doesn't throw four interceptions, this is a very winnable game.  And I think they will win.

Prediction:
Steelers 24, Raiders 10

Get Sanchez: Jets at Steelers Preview

I have to admit that I only saw five plays of last week's game against the Broncos.  Interestingly enough, I was in Colorado at my brother in-law's wedding.

I got to look at this instead of Peyton Manning, which I think is a fair trade.

As a result, I wasn't able to witness them falling apart in the fourth quarter, though I somehow caught Demarius Thomas' 70 yard catch-and-run for a touchdown, which I took as a bad sign.  I've seen highlights and read some analysis and I have to say I'm not sure why a lot of people are freaking out.  I mean, I know why they're freaking out, it's because the Steelers lost and lost by meltdown and that's not something that people are accustomed to seeing from the Steelers.  But... I don't think the freakouts are warranted.

I tried to get everyone to calm down after the hated Ravens curb-stomped the Steelers in the opener last year.  My point was that it was only one game and the NFL would only give them one loss, no matter how poorly they played.  From what I can tell, the offense and defense performed pretty well for the first three quarters and kept Manning mostly in check.  They didn't get destroyed for four quarters like they did in Baltimore to open the 2011 season.  As you may recall, the Steelers were 12-4 last year.  They don't get to face the craptastic line-up of inept quarterbacks this season that they benefited from last season, but I think it is not yet time to panic and that there's a very solid chance they finish 10-6 or 9-7.


But, this is a Preview post for the Jets game, so I'm going to move on.

Three big items in this game:

1. Word came out today that Darelle Revis is out for this game.  That's huge.  If Revis Island is vacant, then Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders will all have better match-ups.
2. They get Ryan Clark back.  Even though Troy and James Harrison are probably out, I think adding Clark back in is a net win.  Harrison didn't play last week, either, and Troy freelanced a little too much (from what I heard and it also looked like he took himself out of the play on the Thomas touchdown).  With Clark back in there and Ryan Mundy playing things by the book, they should be fine in the secondary.  It'd just be nice if they could generate some kind of pass rush and force Sanchez into making some mistakes.
3. Read this this morning: "Pittsburgh hasn't started a season 0-2 since 2002, though that didn't stop the Steelers from finishing 10-5-1 and making it to the divisional round of the playoffs. The Steelers haven't even lost consecutive games since a five-game slide in 2009."  That's some serious consistency right there.  I have a feeling the veteran guys on this team will be extra focused on Sunday to make sure that continues.  With two teams as close talent-wise as the Jets and Steelers, that little bit of extra focus is going to help a lot.

I think the Jets offense isn't as good as the Bills made them look in Week 1 and the Steelers defense isn't as bad as Manning made them look, either.  Manning is a better quarterback than Sanchez and he also has more talent around him at the skill positions.  The Jets are almost as thin at tackle as the Steelers and I have a feeling that LaMarr Woodley "great performance against a bad player" games against Austin Howard.  Howard plays right tackle for the Jets.  I had to look it up, too.  It's OK, you shouldn't feel bad.  Howard's not that good, that's why you don't know who he is.

I don't think New York has enough push in the running game to bully a surprisingly deep Steeler defensive line.  Shonn Greene doesn't scare me and neither do any of the guys up front for the Jets.

On offense, I have to say the Jets defense doesn't scare me as much without Revis.  Without him to shut down half the field in the passing game, the opposing team's offense has a lot more options and a lot more ways to attack a pretty average group of re-tread defenders and roleplayers.  I'd also like to add that Bryant Thomas is out for this game, which decreases the odds that Ben Roethlisberger will get sacked 15 times.  My cousin, Dustin Keller, is also scratched for this game, which will hurt a Jets offense that already doesn't have a lot of weapons.  Get well soon, Dustin.  Auntie Claudette sends her love.

I think the Steelers will have trouble running the ball, because they always have trouble running the ball.  It's kind of their thing, but at least they're persistent.  There should be some real opportunities for Roethlisberger, provided he's able to stay upright.  And, provided New York decides not to blitz too much.  According to ESPN blogger Jamison Hensley, Roethlisberger was 6 for 14 with 60 yards and an interception when the Broncos blitzed.  Hensley also points out that the Jets have blitzed on 43.4 percent of all snaps since 2009, most in league.  So, yeah, I think they're going to blitz.  It will just come down to how well the Steelers can pick those blitzes up and how badly the Jets defense breaks down on the back end without Revis if the Steelers do manage to pick up the blitz.

I know I've talked a lot about how both offenses are going to struggle and how they're going to have to do a lot of things right to score points, but I still feel like this is going to be a pretty high scoring game (take the over).  I think that there will be enough breakdowns in coverage when the defenses blitz a little too hard and enough turnovers that give the offense a short field that this won't be a 13-10 slugfest.  Plus which, those kinds of games are usually reserved for November or December.

I think the Steelers win, in a push (line is currently Steelers by 5), but take the over.  Also, these happen to be the numbers in my football pool this week, so I hope I'm predicting the right score.

Prediction:
Steelers 28, Jets 23

Steelers Preseason Game 2 Watchlist

My biggest takeaway from the first pre-season game against the Eagles is that we need the NFL officials to negotiate a contract with the NFL and come back.  The replacement officials aren't cutting it.  There were missed calls on both sides that both helped and hurt the Steelers.  The effect on the game really isn't worth arguing because it was an exhibition game, but you know how people like to ticky tack back and forth about this call or that call when the games actually count.  I'm not one to do that, regardless of how it affects the Steelers in a given game, but the fact that the replacement officials were entirely too inconsistent was driving me crazy.  So, I guess one of the things on my watchlist for this game is the officials.  I want to see if they're getting any better or not.  My guess is that they won't be any better and it will make me miss the old referees even more.

The other big thing I'll be watching is the offensive game plan.  Todd Haley mentioned a week or so ago that the entire offense is installed at this point.  That means that the largely "horizontal" passing game we saw against Philly might be what we see for the rest of the season, especially if Mike Wallace doesn't come back.  Now, I know that coordinators usually strip things down and keep things vanilla for the pre-season, but that seemed a little too stripped down and too vanilla.  If we see more of the same on Sunday night, that may be what's in store for the offense during the season.  I hope not, though I'm glad they're running more screen passes, but I guess that's why they play the games.

Other stuff I'll be watching:

1. I was not impressed with Curtis Brown and any of the back-up safeties not named Ryan Mundy.  I hope that, with a week of practice under their belts, they'll improve their overall awareness and cover their assigned areas (70 yard touchdown pass in game one was mostly Myron Rolle's fault, but Brown never should've lost track of him).
2. It looks like Keenan Lewis is now in the driver's seat for the #2 cornerback position, which means that Cortez Allen will probably get the start.  I was impressed with both of them, but I'd really like to see some consistency there.  Whoever is the starter, start getting them more reps with the first team.
3. Chris Carter looked pretty lost and slow last Thursday.  Maybe he improves, but I think a better plan is to start saying novenas that Harrison and Worilds get healthy.
4. Steve McLendon was solid in limited action against the Eagles and I want to see more of him.  Given the fact that Casey Hampton and Rashard Mendenhall just got activated off the PUP list, this seems like as good a chance as any for McLendon to show what he can do.
5. Speaking of guys that will get a chance to show what they can do, Baron Batch and Jonathan Dwyer are both going to get a lot of touches with Mendenhall and Redman not available and I'm excited to see how the perform running behind the first- and second-team offensive lines.  I've said all along that I think Batch is really just Verron Haynes, Jr; a guy that can carry here and there but is mostly a third down back.  If he can be an every down guy or at least looks a lot better than he did against Philly (which shouldn't be difficult), then that would make me less nervous about the running back position.  The fact that Mendenhall was taken off the PUP list doesn't make me less nervous.  It makes me think they're going to test him a little, find that he's not anywhere near ready, and put him on IR.  I'm thinking that about Big Snack, too, which is why they should put McLendon in there as much as possible.
6. Mike Adams can't possibly be as bad as he looked against the Eagles.  He played poorly, then got hurt, which is not an auspicious way for a guy to begin his career.  I'd like to see him play a bunch of snaps against the Colts, but I honestly don't think he's going to secure the starting job.  He's too far behind and the coaching staff loves Max Starks too much.
7. I think DeCastro is going to do just fine and he'll open the season at right guard, but I'd still like to see him get a lot of snaps and work out some of the kinks.  
8. Both rookies looked great in the running game, which makes me think that Pouncey has some work to do yet on line calls.  The past two seasons, he was mostly surrounded by guys that had been there longer than him and already knew what to do.  That's probably not going to be the case this season and he needs to step up.
9. They need to get the ball to Chris Rainey eight times on offense.  He may lose eight yards on the first seven touches, but he could also break that eighth touch for a 60 yard touchdown.  The guy is explosive and I want to see more of him and how he works in different personnel groupings, especially against the opponent's first team defense.
10. Dear God: Please no injuries to Roethlisberger and Leftwich.  Thanks.

That's it.  Game's on Sunday night football on NBC.  Pre-season football... feel the excitement!

The Todd Haley Situation

It's been quite some time since I posted anything -- a little over three weeks -- so I figured I'd try to catch up.

When I heard that Todd Haley was interviewing for the offensive coordinator job, I was less than pleased.  I knew the Steelers would end up hiring him and I had some serious reservations about him.  The more I thought about it, the more I realized those reservations boiled down to one thing: Ken Whisenhunt had a chance to bring Haley back in the Steelers West fold and decided against it.  That's really it.  My thinking was, Haley is a known quantity in Arizona.  I thought that, if Whisenhunt passed on the opportunity to bring Haley back, then he must be damaged goods.

Now, that could still be true, but Haley does bring a lot of positive things to the table.

1. When he's had the personnel to work with, his offenses have always performed well.  I'm giving him a pass for last year in Kansas City, even if the Chiefs did not.
2. He doesn't have an existing relationship with Ben Roethlisberger and the first few weeks of their current relationship have been rocky.
3. He's not a passing guy or a running guy.  He's a guy that takes the players he has on hand and designs the offense from there.

For #1, you could look at his track record in Arizona or the fact that he helped turn Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe into fantasy football all-stars in 2010.

Number 2 and Number 3 are both positive and important because those two qualities make him the polar opposite of Bruce Arians.  The big things that always annoyed me about Arians were the facts that he was too buddy-buddy with Roethlisberger and he was always fond of saying, "The offense is the offense."  Basically, he had his design, the players would run it, and the other team's defense needed to try and stop it.  When it worked, it was very effective.  When it didn't, Arians was very reluctant to adjust, and the offense was not so effective.

A lot has been made about the fact that Roethlisberger wasn't happy with the decision to let Arians go and that he hasn't been very responsive to Haley since it was announced he would be the team's next offensive coordinator.  I think that talk is overblown and that most of it, if not all of it, will be forgotten when the team reports back to work.  Remember when Roethlisberger's suspension was supposed to divide the team?  Or Rashard Mendenhall's Twitter remarks?  James Harrison's Men's Journal interview?  Hines Ward's DUI?  None of it did.  This longer room is too tight, too strong, and Mike Tomlin has these guys too focused to get derailed by any distractions.

It also couldn't hurt for Roethlisberger to feel that he has something to prove and that there are people out there that don't believe in him.  He's a very self-motivated guy, but he can often become complacent.  I think the Haley hiring will light a bit of a fire under him.

When Haley had Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston, he threw the ball a lot and the offense was extremely successful.  When he had Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles, he ran the ball a lot and the offense was extremely successful.  When Charles blew out his knee early in the 2011 season and Matt Cassel was placed on injured reserve, Haley did the best he could with Dexter McCluster and Tyler Palko.

Since Mendenhall will probably start the season on the PUP list and Ike Redman isn't exactly a franchise back, Haley will probably focus on throwing the ball more.  He's got Roethlisberger and a bunch of talent at wide receiver -- which is similar to the situation he had in Arizona -- so it makes sense to get eight or nine yards per pass attempt instead of three or four yards per rush attempt.

The only issue there is if ownership keeps meddling with the offense.  They already dropped the ball big time by completely screwing up the Arians firing/retiring/lack of contract extension.  My hope is that they take more of a "hands off" approach, at least for the upcoming season, and let the football people do their jobs.  

That's my hope, anyway.