Season on the Brink: Bengals at Steelers Preview

Well, the bad news is that the game against the Cowboys sucked.  The good news is that the Steelers are officially in playoff mode and it's win-or-go-home time.  They seem to do better in situations like this, unless of course they're up against Tim Tebow.

This is definitely a winnable game and that's not a dig on the Bengals.  The losses to the Titans, Raiders, and Browns weren't cases of the Steelers losing a winnable game, they were cases of them honking away a sure win.  Yes, things change when the game actually kicks off and you commit eight turnovers, but the fact remains that they had match-up advantages pretty much everywhere on both sides of the ball in those games and failed to capitalize on those advantages.

On Sunday, they don't have a ton of match-ups in their favor, but they have enough.  Cincinnati doesn't have anyone that can cover Heath Miller.  Dallas had a tough time dealing with Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown -- provided they held onto the ball -- and the Cowboys have a more talented secondary than the Bengals.  Emmanuel Sanders will be back this week and will be at full strength.  The only guys that won't play are Ike Taylor and Mike Adams, so they're healthier than they've been at any point in the season and certainly in better shape health-wise than they were for the first meeting in Cincy.  Ben Roethlisberger is a better quarterback than Andy Dalton and Dalton has struggled pretty mightily against this Steelers defense thus far in his career.  BenJarvis Green-Ellis hasn't been able to get much going this season, the Bengals offensive line has been far better in pass protection than they have in the running game, and the Steelers held the Law Firm to only 69 yards in the first meeting.

I'm aware of the fact that Cincinnati has Geno Atkins and he's a very good, very disruptive player on the interior of the defensive line.  But, Legursky and Ramon Foster were able to contain Atkins in the first game, to the tune of two tackles and a sack, which makes me think that Pouncey and DeCastro might actually fare better.  DeCastro looked a little rough at times in his first start, but he was coming off three months of inactivity and only had three practices to get used to the line calls and the tendencies of his line mates.  I think he'll be better this week and Pouncey usually steps up his level of play for big games (unless it's an actual playoff game, in which case he's usually hurt).

With all the talk about Atkins, I think people are forgetting that the Bengals have a really talented, solid front seven.  They lead the league with 43 sacks.  They pressure quarterbacks into making bad decisions and they're plus 3 in the turnover department (Steelers are minus 14).  But... they have the same personnel that they had when the Steelers plowed them over for 167 yards in Week 7 and the offensive line for Pittsburgh has benefited from a couple of upgrades since then.  Jonathan Dwyer ran for 122 yards on only 17 carries in that game.  The Steelers outgained the Bengals 431-185 in that game and really dominated throughout.  They just lost the field position battle and turned the ball over in the red zone.

If they can keep from committing a costly turnover -- especially a pick six, which is no sure thing with this team -- they should be able to win fairly easily.

One thing really scares the hell out of me in this game and his name is AJ Green.  Without Taylor to keep Green in check, you have either Keenan Ivory Lewis or Cortez Allen or... #35, whatever his name is, it doesn't really matter because he's awful.  (I know it's Josh Victorian, but that still doesn't matter because he's awful.)  If Green's able to roam free, then he'll do more damage than Miles Austin and Dez Bryant put together.  My guess is that they double him with Lewis and Ryan Grant and err on the side of not getting beat deep, but Green's good enough at adjusting to the ball when it's in the air that he's still open even if he's double covered.

I think that Green still runs wild, but it's kept within reason.

That's all the X's and O's and strategy, but here's the big reason I think they win on Sunday: If they lose Sunday, their season is over.  This team has been maddeningly inconsistent all year, but they've always been able to find just the right time and way to break the hearts of Steelers fans all over the world. 

This Sunday isn't the right time.  If they lose Sunday, they're done, Steeler fans have no hope for the next week.  Their hearts will be broken, sure, but their team will have lost to an up-and-coming team and, hey, the Bengals deserve a break every now and again.

Next Sunday is the right time, because they're playing Cleveland and there's every reason to believe that they absolutely should win that game and make it to the playoffs.  To lose out on a post-season berth by getting beat at home by the lowly, stupid Cleveland Browns is considerably more heartbreaking. 

The only thing that this team has consistently done all season is break our hearts and drive us crazy.  That will continue on Sunday against the Bengals.

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Bengals 23

Bullseye on Ike: Steelers at Bengals Preview

With only five games on the books, I had to say that any game this early in the season is a must-win game.  However, I'm now going to say that Sunday night's match-up against the Bengals is a must-win game.  Allow me to explain...

On Saturday, I was at Primanti's and someone asked the bar if the Steelers were going to go to the playoffs this season.  I immediately said that there was no way, but everyone else that jumped into the debate had two excellent points:

1. The AFC is thoroughly mediocre this year and there aren't many teams that are good enough to fill all six spots.
2. The Steelers have Ben Roethlisberger and a great quarterback gives you a better-than-average chance to win 9 or 10 games.

I knew #2 already, but I hadn't thought about #1 that much.  If you think about it, the Patriots will most likely win the AFC East and no one else in that division is good enough to finish above .500.  Same with the South, but substitute the Texans for the Patriots.  In the West, the Chiefs and Raiders aren't winning more than six games each, so that leaves you with the division winner (Broncos or Chargers) and whoever doesn't win the division.  As much as it pains me to say it, the hated Ravens are in the driver's seat in the North, even with all the issues they're having on defense.  The Browns are more competitive, but they're not going to the playoffs.  That leaves the Steelers and Bengals.

In order to make the playoffs, the Steelers need to sweep the Bengals (for tiebreaker purposes if nothing else), which is why they must win on Sunday in order to stay in the postseason hunt.

This is a game that they can win and probably should win, but the same could be said of the games against the Titans and Raiders.

Cincinnati has some talent on offense, but the only player that has game-changing ability is AJ Green.  Last season, Ike Taylor faced Green twice and held him pretty much in check, to the tune of seven catches for 123 yards and two touchdowns.  Given Green's production thus far this season and how god-awful Taylor has been since the start of the Denver playoff game last season, Green might post numbers like that on Sunday alone.  If he does, the Steelers won't be able to do enough to win. 

They can't get involved in shootouts and they can't have a situation where they're trying to protect a small lead late in the game.  If Green explodes, he'll probably blow up at the wrong time and the Steelers will move to 0-4 on the road.  Taylor needs to play somewhere close to his 2011 level for the team to win.  He could get help over the top, they could put Keenan Lewis or Cortez Allen on him in certain situations, but ultimately Taylor is the guy that needs to step up, put his failures from January onward behind him, and lock down on Green.  The Bengals know that Ike has been burned more times than a near-sighted crackhead this season, so they're going to go after him early and he needs to step up early and often.

Andy Dalton is the best quarterback Cincinnati has had since 2006, but that's not saying too much.  He's regressed a little since last season, defenses have enough films to adequately game plan for him, and the coaching staff is asking him to do more, all of which have combined to make him less effective and dangerous this season.  I wouldn't call it a "sophomore slump" it's just a combination of factors that has turned him into just a good quarterback.  He's not going to put the team on his shoulders and carry them to victory.

Jermaine Gresham and The Law Firm are fine players, but they aren't the guys that are going to make or break this game.

They've got some talent in the front four, but the back seven is kind of shaky.  When they've won games this season, they've done so because they put a bunch of points up on the board and their opponents weren't able to keep pace.  When the Steelers have lost, they've done so because they allowed their opponents to put a bunch of points on the board and couldn't keep pace.

Rashard Mendenhall and Issac Redman are out -- either officially or unofficially -- which means two things:

1. Out of desperation, I picked up Jonathan Dwyer in one of my fantasy leagues.
2. Ben Roethlisberger is going to have to win this game on the strength of his right arm and his ability to escape Cincy's front four.

Above all else, he needs to improve his accuracy and timing with his receivers inside the red zone.  The last two weeks, he's been great between the 20s, but was pretty far off target once he got inside the 20.  That's why the Steelers attempted seven field goals the last two games and that's one of the reasons they lost to the Titans last Thursday night.  I know that saying "you need to score touchdowns when you get in the red zone" is not expert football analysis, but that doesn't mean it's not true.  It's also especially critical for Sunday night's game considering the fact that the Bengals can score points in a hurry and the Steelers seem to need every last point of cushioning they can manage on the road in the fourth quarter.

If the guys subbing for the injured players step up and play above their potential and the guys that have played below their potential just far -- like, say, Ike Taylor --  play up to or above their potential, then they'll win this game.  If Green goes off or it's a tight game with five minutes left to play, I have to say that I don't have enough faith in this team -- to say nothing of the fact that the Bengals are actually pretty damned good -- to think they'll be able to pull off a road victory.

I just think that this is still a talented, veteran group with a solid coaching staff that will dig deep and win a game that they can -- and must -- win.  If they lose, then this is a declining, aging group with a solid coaching staff that will look to finish the season with a respectable record, for the sake of pride.

Like I said, it's a must-win.

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Bengals 17

Good News and Bad News: Bengals at Steelers

The best news is that they won and kept pace with the hated Ravens in terms of record (Baltimore holds the tiebreaker since they swept the regular season series).  It's better that they won 35-7 instead of 13-9 or 17-13, but a win is still a win.

Good news first:

1. AJ Green did have six catches for 87 yards and a touchdown, but 43 of those yards came on one play.  He was also targeted 11 times and Ike Taylor picked off one of those targets, so I'm going to declare this one a victory for number 24.  He's continuing a strong season and the Steelers will need him to keep it up if they want to make some noise in January.
2. Special teams contributed a forced fumble, a blocked kick, and a punt return for a touchdown.  The kicking game had been under-performing for the past few seasons and it's nice to see the Steelers play well in all three phases.  When the playoffs start and the games get tighter, having an advantage on special teams gives you a huge edge.  It was also good to see Cameron Heyward contributing in a meaningful way, even if he's not starting.  Curtis Brown had a big day with three special teams tackles and he was all over the place in coverage units.  Kampinos averaged 54.5 yards per punt, showed good hang time, and dropped two punts inside the 20.
3. The Mighty Ginger was held to 5.6 yards per pass attempt and completed 45.8 percent of his passes.  Bruce Gradkowski threw the interception to Taylor, but, for a guy that has been as hot on the road as Dalton, I will take 135 yards passing and 77.6 passer rating.
4. On four trips in the red zone, the Steelers got four touchdowns.  That's huge.  Also huge is that Rashard Mendenhall looked comfortable close to the goal line and Tomlin looked comfortable getting him the ball.
5. Antonio Brown is awesome.  He led the team with 67 receiving yards and kicked in another 65 and a touchdown on three punt returns.  Now that Emmanuel Sanders is healthy, expect him to return kickoffs and Brown to return punts.  That is a winning combination.
6. Hines Ward went over 12,000 yards for his career.  I'd like to congratulate him on a hell of a run.
7. LaMarr Woodley leaving in the second quarter was all part of the plan.  With a Thursday night game coming up and Jason Worilds allegedly rushing the passer well, they didn't feel a need to rush him back and exacerbate his hamstring injury.  Troy played and played well without incident.
8. James Harrison stepped up when the Bengals lost their left tackle.  He had three sacks and three hits on the quarterback.  The Steelers had an aggressive game plan this week after laying off Dalton in the first game.  It sure worked.  If they come after Colt McCoy like that on Thursday night, things could get ugly for the Browns.
9. I still can't believe how well Max Starks is playing.  I guess being forced to take some time off and losing some weight made a big difference.  I just hope he stays healthy the rest of the season.  Jonathan Scott is definitely not an acceptable substitute.  I thought the line played well in general.  I would've liked to have seen fewer sacks and a more efficient running game, but this was really an A-level game for this unit when you factor in the talent Cincinnati has on the front seven.

Not a ton of Bad News, but there is still some out there...

1. New England, Baltimore, and Houston all won, which means the Steelers, at 9-3, would be the #5 seed if the season ended today.  Hated Ravens and Texans hold a tiebreaker, so the only way to improve seeding is to keep winning and hope someone else loses, preferably both Baltimore and Houston, since the Steelers have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Patriots.
2. Todd Suisham missed a field goal.  Jeff Reed is still available.
3. The Steelers scored 35 points, but were still 2-for-10 on third down.  That's not sustainable.
4. Ben Roethlisberger averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, didn't turn the ball over, and had a 117.3 quarterback rating, but it really seemed to me that this was his second straight ugly game.  He was off on deep throws, his timing on short and intermediate routes wasn't quite right, and his receivers gained a lot of yards for him after the catch.  I'm not sure if it's the thumb or the coverages he's been facing, but he just seems... off.  I know.  Anyone whose quarterback is Tyler Palko or Caleb Hanie or TJ Yates really hates me right about now.  I'll shut up.
5. I am happy for Hines Ward.  I really am.  What bugs me is that they're feeding him the ball when they don't have to.  He needs ten catches to get to 1,000 for his career. Just let it happen.  Let it look like he earned it.  Maybe look for him on third down more often and you'll convert more of those opportunities.  He'll get to 1,000 without trying to fudge it.  If you want to throw a quick screen to a receiver, Sanders, Brown, and Mike Wallace are all considerably better options.
6. Speaking of weird passes, I'm glad that Roethlisberger came out of the game and Charlie Batch went in.  I'm glad that Batch saw the Bengals jump offsides, knew he had a free play, and just chucked it down the field.  I'm not glad that Brown was in the game and got nailed on the play because Batch can only chuck the ball so far.  If you're going to leave players open to injury on those kinds of plays, make sure it's Batch throwing to Cotchery or Battle.

This wasn't a case of Cincinnati finally reverting back to the Bungles we're used to seeing.  The Bengals are a good, young team and they have a bright future.  They're just not good enough to beat the Steelers or hated Ravens yet.  I'm thinking they will be and sooner rather than later.  But, it didn't happen on Sunday, though it hopefully will happen on the last game of the season, when the Bengals host the hated Ravens.

The Steelers made an important announcement to the rest of the AFC yesterday: We're back and the Bengals aren't ready.  We'll see how everything shakes out, but, as of right now, the Steelers are the five seed that no one wants to play.

Stop the Mighty Ginger: Bengals at Steelers Preview

For those of you that don't read the ol' blog regularly, the Mighty Ginger is Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton.  I call him that because he's already playing pretty damn well and he looks like this.

Dalton's stats haven't been overly impressive thus far this year -- he has 16 touchdown passes, 12 interceptions, and an 81.1 quarterback rating -- but he's proven to be more than capable of leading this young team to victory.  Cincinnati is 7-4 and they're 4-2 the road.  Had AJ Green not gotten hurt in the last game between these two teams, the Bengals could be 8-3 and the Steelers could be 8-3.  However, I'm not a big fan of "what if" scenarios, because that's basically saying, "if the things that caused me to lose had not happen, I would have won."  That means Cincy is 7-4 and the Steelers are 8-3 and neither team can afford to lose ground to Baltimore, which holds a tiebreaker over both teams.

Everything that I wrote in the last preview is still true.  These are two fairly evenly matched teams.  The Bengals are no longer the Bungles.  AJ Green is a hell of a player and Ike Taylor will have his hands full on Sunday.  They have an accomplished couple of cornerbacks and a solid front seven.  Their safeties are still suspect, but taking advantage of that would require Mike Wallace to hold onto the ball.  But, really, I'm not saying he can't do that.  He had a bad game against Kansas City and I think that he will make up for that on Sunday.

The thing is that not too much has changed since the last game.  Polamalu may be limited and may not play, but LaMarr Woodley will be back, Farrior will be back, and James Harrison is healthy.  As a matter of fact, this is the healthiest this team has been all season.  They'll also have Emmanuel Sanders back, which helps the return game.

Really, this is a game that they won about three weeks ago and should win again.  The big thing they need to keep in mind is Dalton.  He's no longer just some rookie quarterback.  I'm not promoting him to the upper tier of quarterbacks in the NFL, but he's better and more dangerous in the fourth quarter than the likes of Curtis Painter, Blaine Gabbert, or even Cam Newton and Christian Ponder.  Dalton has five fourth quarter comebacks this season and was one William Gay interception away from having six.

Perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind here is that Dalton is better than Tyler Palko.  The Steelers are healthy, they're more talented than the Bengals, and they're playing at home.  They could very well jump out to another early 14-0 lead on Cincinnati.  If that happens, they need to keep their foot on the gas and put as much distance between themselves and the Bengals on the scoreboard as possible.  Dalton's not John Freakin' Elway or even Frank Reich, but he's plenty good enough to overcome a deficit on the road against a team that's trying to sit on a lead (like they did against the Chiefs and Jaguars).

If they take care of the ball, force a couple of turnovers, stay aggressive, and keep the Mighty Ginger in check, they shouldn't have any problems winning this game.  That's a lot of "ifs" but I still think they get it done.

Prediction:
Steelers 23, Bengals 17