Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Browns

Good News first:

1. I am bound by international law to state that a win is a win.
2. Hines Ward got his 1,000th reception, becoming only the eighth player in NFL history to reach that milestone.  It's an impressive accomplishment and I think that solidifies him as a Hall of Fame player.  He's got the rings and the reputation, he just needed the stats.  Now, the 1,000th reception itself was definitely a cheesy call and they've been feeding him easy catches the last few weeks, but I don't think that taints the accomplishment at all.  He earned the other 990 or so receptions and he deserves to have his name up there with the all time greats.
3. I think Ike Taylor was snubbed for the Pro Bowl.  I also think the secondary as a whole is playing at a very high level.  The front seven hasn't been getting as much pressure this season with Woodley and Harrison missing a lot of time, which also makes it so that Lawrence Timmons and James Farrior need to spend more time in coverage.  In past seasons, the front seven bailed the secondary out by generating pressure on the quarterback.  This season, the secondary bailed the front seven out in a big way.  I know that Seneca Wallace isn't exactly Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, but he was held to 171 yards on 41 attempts (4.3 yards per attempt) with only 16 completions, no touchdowns, and an interception.  The defense in general has been destroying average quarterbacks all season and they held Andy Dalton and Tom Brady in check.  If not for those last two minutes in the last game against the hated Ravens, the pass defense wouldn't have a black mark on their resume this season.  Now, if only they could intercept some passes.
4. That's the thing.  This is a championship defense if they can force some turnovers.  They've actually forced 13 fumbles on the season, but they've only recovered four of those.  They have 11 interceptions, so that's 15 total turnovers forced in a 16 game season.  That's no good.  It's true that you can make your own luck when it comes to turnovers, but it's also true that a lot of it depends on how the ball bounces.  What if they'd had some lucky bounces on some more of those forced fumbles and had recovered nine or ten of them?  On offense, they've lost 13 of 16 fumbles, so the ball definitely isn't bouncing their way this season.  How many tipped balls were there on Sunday?  If the ball hasn't been bouncing their way this season, it's highly unlikely that it will start bouncing their way in the playoffs.  That means this isn't a championship defense.  Maybe this belongs in Bad News?  We'll leave it here.
5. Ben Roethlisberger made it through the entire game without aggravating his ankle injury.  It sucks that Mendenhall went down, but Roethlisberger is the only indispensable player on offense.
6. They outgained Cleveland 360-240 on Sunday and they outgained their opponents 5957-4349 on the season and they finished with the #1 scoring defense, the #1 pass defense, and #1 in total defense.  That's pretty damned impressive.

Now for the Bad News:

1. They didn't have a huge edge in point differential, despite the fact that they gained an average of 100 yards per game more than their opponents.  They finished 22nd in scoring offense.  Part of that was that the defense wasn't generating turnovers and giving the offense a short field.  The other part was struggles in the red zone.  This is a great offense between the 20s, which can get you to 12-4 with the support of a great defense.  Can't get you to the Super Bowl so much.
2. Mike Wallace seems to be regressing.  Roethlisberger is not targeting him as much as he did early the season and that's probably part of it.  But, Wallace was also caught not paying attention on a couple of plays where Roethlisberger targeted him.  Wallace was definitely a bigger part of the offense earlier in the season and defenses started paying more attention to him, which opened things up for Antonio Brown.  Brown took full advantage of those opportunities and now defenses are starting to watch out for him.  It'll be interesting to see who the Broncos have Champ Bailey cover in the Wild Card round.  If I were them, I'd put Bailey on Brown and roll the dice that Wallace doesn't make a game changing play.
3. Rashard Mendenhall's knee injury is a bummer, but I don't think it's a catastrophic bummer.  The real issue is that Mewelde Moore is also dealing with a knee injury and Baron Batch has been on injured reserve all season.  A position that was already thin in terms of depth just got thinner.  If anything happens to Issac Redman, the offense is in big trouble.  But, the good news here is that Redman is probably a better back in this offense, provided he can keep from fumbling the ball.  Since the Steelers don't have a dominant offensive line that blows guys off the ball, they don't open very many big holes.  Mendenhall can do more with a big hole than Redman, but Redman can make more out of a small hole (or no hole) than Mendenhall.  But, the fumbling problem is a big problem.  He didn't have ball security issues heading into Week 17, so let's just hope that it was a one-game-jitters situation.
4. Ramon Foster got dinged up, Pouncey looked a little sluggish, and I have no idea what kind of shape Legursky is going to be in.  The Steelers don't have a ton of talent up front and starting backups of players that don't have a ton of talent is no way to win a championship.

The biggest piece of bad news is that the hated Ravens also won, which means the Steelers are the 5 seed instead of the 2 seed.  I'm not a big believer in home field advantage when it comes to the playoffs.  The Steelers won three games on the road on their way to Super Bowl XL.  It can be done.  My problem with the  lack of a bye.  I think Roethlisberger and the other walking wounded could've really used that extra week of rest.  In addition, someone else could've done the Steelers a favor and knocked off Baltimore, possibly New England as well.

The two teams that scare me the most in this postseason bracket -- the Patriots and the hated Ravens -- are also the two teams that are in the best position to make a deep run.  That sucks.

But, ultimately, unless the offense can take better care of the ball and seal the deal when they get inside the 20 and the defense can force some turnovers, this is just a really good team that went 12-4 and went to the playoffs this season.

Stop the Mighty Ginger: Bengals at Steelers Preview

For those of you that don't read the ol' blog regularly, the Mighty Ginger is Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton.  I call him that because he's already playing pretty damn well and he looks like this.

Dalton's stats haven't been overly impressive thus far this year -- he has 16 touchdown passes, 12 interceptions, and an 81.1 quarterback rating -- but he's proven to be more than capable of leading this young team to victory.  Cincinnati is 7-4 and they're 4-2 the road.  Had AJ Green not gotten hurt in the last game between these two teams, the Bengals could be 8-3 and the Steelers could be 8-3.  However, I'm not a big fan of "what if" scenarios, because that's basically saying, "if the things that caused me to lose had not happen, I would have won."  That means Cincy is 7-4 and the Steelers are 8-3 and neither team can afford to lose ground to Baltimore, which holds a tiebreaker over both teams.

Everything that I wrote in the last preview is still true.  These are two fairly evenly matched teams.  The Bengals are no longer the Bungles.  AJ Green is a hell of a player and Ike Taylor will have his hands full on Sunday.  They have an accomplished couple of cornerbacks and a solid front seven.  Their safeties are still suspect, but taking advantage of that would require Mike Wallace to hold onto the ball.  But, really, I'm not saying he can't do that.  He had a bad game against Kansas City and I think that he will make up for that on Sunday.

The thing is that not too much has changed since the last game.  Polamalu may be limited and may not play, but LaMarr Woodley will be back, Farrior will be back, and James Harrison is healthy.  As a matter of fact, this is the healthiest this team has been all season.  They'll also have Emmanuel Sanders back, which helps the return game.

Really, this is a game that they won about three weeks ago and should win again.  The big thing they need to keep in mind is Dalton.  He's no longer just some rookie quarterback.  I'm not promoting him to the upper tier of quarterbacks in the NFL, but he's better and more dangerous in the fourth quarter than the likes of Curtis Painter, Blaine Gabbert, or even Cam Newton and Christian Ponder.  Dalton has five fourth quarter comebacks this season and was one William Gay interception away from having six.

Perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind here is that Dalton is better than Tyler Palko.  The Steelers are healthy, they're more talented than the Bengals, and they're playing at home.  They could very well jump out to another early 14-0 lead on Cincinnati.  If that happens, they need to keep their foot on the gas and put as much distance between themselves and the Bengals on the scoreboard as possible.  Dalton's not John Freakin' Elway or even Frank Reich, but he's plenty good enough to overcome a deficit on the road against a team that's trying to sit on a lead (like they did against the Chiefs and Jaguars).

If they take care of the ball, force a couple of turnovers, stay aggressive, and keep the Mighty Ginger in check, they shouldn't have any problems winning this game.  That's a lot of "ifs" but I still think they get it done.

Prediction:
Steelers 23, Bengals 17

Good News and Bad News: Patriots at Steelers

As I always say: Every time I pick the Steelers to lose, I hope and pray that I'm wrong.  That means I'm glad I was wrong about this game.  Sunday's game was a pretty impressive display by the home team, with more good news than bad.

Good news first:

1. The big story lines on Monday morning were about how Ben Roethlisberger outdueled Tom Brady, but I think the biggest story from this game was how well the secondary played.  Ike Taylor was already having a big year, but supporting guys like William Gay, Cortez Allen, and Keenan Lewis really picked up their games.  I was surprised (and relieved) to see how well they all played in man coverage.  In general, the Zone Blitz scheme involves more blitzing and zone schemes -- hence the name -- but it was refreshing to see the Steelers take a break from what usually works for them and actually try something that had a good chance of working against the offense they matched up against.  Everyone in the defensive backfield kept the intensity up all game, didn't give up a big play, and tackled well.
2. I was talking to someone yesterday and they mentioned that the pass rush has been much improved since Brett Keisel came back.  I agree with that, but I also think LaMarr Woodley had a little something to do with the resurgence.  I think Casey Hampton is playing himself back into game shape and Ziggy Hood/Cameron Heyward keep improving game by game.  This is still a unit that has an age problem, but they're starting to silence some of the critics that said they were too old and too slow after the opener against the hated Ravens.
3. Again, I must be desensitized to pressure on Roethlisberger, because I was surprised to find out that the Patriots sacked him five times on Sunday and recorded four quarterback hits in addition to the sacks.  I thought the offensive line continued to play well and improve.  I thought they looked especially sharp in pass protection.  If they can field the same starting five for the third week in a row in Week 9 against Baltimore, they can really start to build something good.  I'm not going to say "special" or "great," because I don't think this group has that much upside.  I would be more than satisfied with "good" at this point, especially considering how poorly they've played in stretches over the past few seasons.
4. New England converted 30 percent of their first downs (3 of 10) and the Steelers converted 62.5 percent of theirs (10 of 16).  That's a huge swing.
5. Time of possession was also a huge factor, with the Steelers winning that battle 39:22-20:38.  They did that by dropping back to pass on 55 of 78 plays, which proves that they can be just as efficient throwing the ball and playing keepaway now as they were running the ball and playing keepaway during the Cowher Era.  They ended up with only 98 yards rushing, but they also averaged 4.3 yards per attempt, so I'm fine with that.  I don't think that they need to pile up a bunch of yards, they just need to be efficient when they run the ball.

Bad news is mostly injury-related:

1. It looks like Lawrence Timmons -- who still doesn't have a sack this year -- could be the only healthy starting linebacker against the hated Ravens.  Woodley has a hamstring issue, James Harrison is recovering from eye surgery (really can't rush back from something like that), and James Farrior could be out until December with a calf injury.  Marcus Gilbert got hurt again.  It seems to be something slightly different every game, but he also comes out every game.  I think the Steelers should just rest him a week or so and make sure he's completely healthy.  He's a young player that wants to impress the other guys on the roster, so he may be overstating how good he's feeling week to week.
2. If I were a Patriots fan, I'd be thinking that my team got pretty well dominated in all phases of the game, but still only lost by eight.  That would be the good news for New England and part of the bad news for the Steelers.  This is their third dominant performance of the season: Tennessee and Arizona were the other two -- but it's the first time where they pushed the other team around and weren't comfortably in the lead in the fourth quarter.
3. The Steelers didn't blow the Patriots out because they were 2-for-5 in the red zone and didn't force any turnovers.  It's true that they're turning the ball over a lot less on offense, but they're still not forcing any turnovers on defense.  At the half way point in the season, they've forced a total of three turnovers and they've converted only half of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns.  That needs to improve if they're going to actually be the favorite in the AFC, as opposed to the chic pick of the week in the AFC.
4. Shaun Suisham missed another field goal, giving him five misses in 18 attempts.  Those five missed field goals are the most in the NFL.  His 72.2 percent conversion rate is 30th in the league.  I know Heinz Field is a tough place to kick, but there seem to be a number of younger, better guys lying on the scrap heap right now.  Jeff Reed is also available.  If nothing else, the Steelers should bring a few guys in to have a look at them.  Kickers have been getting more and more accurate -- and from longer distances -- over the years, but Suisham has not kept pace.  The Steelers need to find someone who can keep pace.  Jeff Reed is also available.

Don't get me wrong, I'm excited about the fact that I was wrong and that the Steelers won.  I was overjoyed and fairly drunk on Sunday.  The problem is that I don't think they're the team to beat at this point.

Yes, they're leading their division.  Yes, they just beat the Patriots and hold an important tiebreaker for playoff seeding.  Yes, they have a solid defense and an outstanding quarterback.  Yes, the AFC is down this year due to the fact that Peyton Manning has not played and no one seems to want to win the AFC West.

There's still the red zone issue.  There's still the turnovers issue.  There's still a shaky kicker and an offensive line that is being held together by duct tape.  There's the fact that their depth has been tested a bunch already and we're only eight games into the season.  Injuries tend to pile up towards the end of the year and there are limits to every team's depth.  They can't withstand more injuries to the offensive line, defensive line, or linebackers. 

Homefield advantage is nice, but history -- especially Steeler history -- has proven that it doesn't guarantee a Super Bowl.  They're one of the best teams in AFC, but I don't think they're the team to beat just yet.

They still need to beat the hated Ravens on Sunday night.  Wins against the Chiefs and 49ers would help.  They can't choke against the Bengals or Browns.  But, I guess you can still call them the team to beat this week if you really, really want to.

Good News and Bad News: Steelers vs Jaguars

I tried to get started on writing this a number of times yesterday and really couldn't come up with an angle.  It's basically the same story as it was against the Seahawks and the Colts: The Steelers won, they did some things well, but it's not as though there was any catharsis behind the victory.  Week 5 against the Titans was a catharsis game.  They took out all the frustration and anxiety of the season out on an opponent that thought they had a chance to win, but didn't know what hit them.

Unlike most situations, you root for the bully when they're your team.  It's a guilty pleasure, because everyone still gets paid regardless of the outcome, you just hope no one gets seriously injured.  If your team beats another team senseless, there's a sense of satisfaction and relief.  You're satisfied that you follow a good team and you're relieved that there isn't a fourth quarter/Hail Mary situation like we had on Sunday.  When you expect your team to crush the other team, you're unsatisfied and worried if they don't.  I would say that I'm dissatisfied with Sunday's performance, but I'm not worried.

The Jaguars are a young team and they'll improve.  One of the steps toward improvement is not giving up.  They didn't give up in the second half and everyone was pretty much expecting them to.  I think the second half was more a result of improved effort and execution by Jacksonville than the Steelers slacking off, not being a good team, or not executing properly.  Ben Roethlisberger was off all game, it's just that it was windy in the second half, so that made it look like he took a nosedive.  There were plays to be made, the Steelers just didn't make all of them.  What they did do is make enough plays to win, which is sufficient, even if it's not satisfying.

I'm not worried because the plays were there.  Those plays only need to be made eventually and consistently, not every time.  If a team hit every big play that was available to them, they'd be unstoppable.  I'm not looking for unstoppable, I'm looking for great.  Great means making more plays than you miss.  Roethlisberger may have another "off" game this season, but he won't be this far off very often.  And, even though he was off, he still managed 8.7 yards per attempt and 16.7 yards per completion, and I will take that.

I'm not worried because I'm actually starting to believe that the offensive line will come together and be a good unit.  That's provided they have the same five guys in the starting line-up for consecutive weeks, which hasn't happened yet.  The good news is that they've played fairly well the past few games even though there have been a lot of injuries.  I think the pass protection continues to be consistent and the running game continues to improve.  As he showed, Rashard Mendenhall can do a lot of damage if there's solid blocking in front of him.  He's their best option.  Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer wouldn't have scored a touchdown in the first quarter with the same blocking.  They would've gotten stopped at the one or two yard line and I think we all know how dicey things have been for the Steelers inside the five the past few years.

I'm not worried because William Gay and Ike Taylor have been playing quite well.  Ryan Clark has stepped up his game.  Troy Polamalu has been much more controlled the past two games, but he hasn't lost any of his explosiveness.  More importantly, he passed concussion tests this week, so he should be available for Steelers West.  Brett Keisel made a triumphant return to the line-up.  LaMarr Woodley is playing out of his mind, which makes up for the fact that James Harrison is out.  Farrior and Timmons are much improved, though Timmons looks like he still has room to improve.

The only thing that concerns me is turnovers.  They've done a better job of protecting the ball the past couple of weeks, but they're still not taking it away.  Forcing two turnovers in six games is not getting it done.  As I've mentioned before, turnovers can be the result of tipped passed and lucky bounces, but you also make your own luck.  That's why they call it forcing turnovers.

But, they're also 4-2 after six games and only half a game behind the hated Ravens for the division lead.  Now is not the time to panic.  There will be plenty of time for that later.

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Texans

Good news first.  Should be able to get this out of the way fairly quickly...

1. Ben Roethlisberger's foot is only sprained, not broken.  He's currently listed as Questionable for next week's game against the Titans.
2. They could have lost by a lot more.
3. Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders looked good returning kicks and Brown stepped up in the passing game.

Now for the bad news...

1. The two "good news" items aren't really good news.
2. I didn't catch a lot of guys out of position or taking bad angles.  On defense, the linemen were all in their gaps, they were doing what they were supposed to be doing, and there were clear pursuit lanes for the linebackers and safeties.  That's not bad.  What's bad is that no one on the defensive line was getting any penetration.  They were getting to their spot, but they were getting thrown to the ground or being held in place instead of getting into the backfield and disrupting things.  Then you add in the fact that pursuit was slow to arrive and a lot of guys broke down in contain (especially Troy and Lawrence Timmons, but everyone was guilty of it at some point).  There weren't many missed assignments on the offensive line.  For the most part, those guys just got pushed around or someone for Houston just ran past them.  Blown assignments and poor gap discipline can be fixed with practice and time.  Being too slow or not strong enough can't be fixed quite as easily.  The offensive line is struggling because the four guys that aren't named Pouncey aren't very good.  Technique and enthusiasm/hustle are there, but there's a talent void.  Timmons has had a bad season thus far, Troy is freelancing too much, James Farrior appears to have lost another half-step, and LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison have not been getting to the quarterback.  Houston has a fantastic offensive line and a solid defense, but they're not that good.  The Steelers made them look significantly better than they are.  Or, maybe the Steelers are significantly worse than we (read: me) think.
3. Zero turnovers forced, bringing the grand total for the season to: One.
4. The final score could easily have been 31-10.  Or possibly worse.  The Texans dominated the Steelers on both sides of the ball and this was the second game this season where they got absolutely mauled in the trenches.
5. When they had a couple of late chances to rally and tie the score against a team filled with notorious choke artists, they couldn't get it done.  Brown set the Steelers up with a first and 10 on the Houston 48 with 3:33 left to play and Roethlisberger and company went four and out.  They had another shot with 1:02 left and Roethlisberger was pressured relentlessly and intercepted.  Not only did they choke against the choke artists, but my prediction of keeping it close in the fourth quarter and stealing a victory turned out to be wrong.  

But, the worst of the bad news is that the big issues -- poor offensive line play and a defense that lacks the ability to hold the line and close in pursuit -- aren't really fixable.  Signing Flozell Adams won't fix the offensive line.  They're three guys shot -- Legursky, Scott, and Colon -- and the two guys that are coming back aren't a considerable improvement over the guys that replaced them.  In addition, there aren't any real quality options on the free agent market beyond Adams, so the Steelers need to play the hand they were dealt and try to make the most of it.  Playing young guys on defense won't fix the issue that the defense is looking awfully slow and weak, since the young guys aren't better than the old guys, they're just younger.  The schedule is too soft for them to start butchering the roster and "get young now" and there would also be too many holes to fill if they decided to replace everyone that was 30 or older.

These were either issues or looming issues last season, but the line wasn't quite as awful as it's been this year and the defense was playing tough in the trenches and forcing at least some turnovers.  With a regression along both lines and no game-changing or game-saving plays from the defense, the rest of the talent on offense can't close the gap against good teams.

That brings us to some actual good news.  Here is a list of the good teams the Steelers will play between now and the end of the season: Patriots, Hated Ravens, possibly Titans.  Which means it's possible that some guys could improve dramatically, some young guys could plug the holes that are leaking the most water, and some team could knock off New England again, thus clearing a path to the Super Bowl.

If nothing else, a light schedule and a healthy Ben Roethlisberger should be enough to get to ten wins.

What to Watch for: Falcons at Steelers

I always like the third preseason game, because it's more like an actual game than any other in the preseason.  The starters will get more time, maybe the starting five on the offensive line will be in the game deep into the third quarter, and you get a better sense for what the team will actually look like when the games start counting.  The fourth preseason game, the starters are usually only in for a series or two and it's pretty depressing to watch, since you know that everyone else involved in the game is playing for their job.

For tonight, I'm going to keep an eye on the following things:

1. I just mentioned the starting five on the offensive line.  But, really, the only position that's completely set is center.  With injuries, the release of Flozell Adams and Max Starks, and general ineffectiveness from the field, we're really not sure who's going to be in the line-up when the season kicks off against the hated Ravens on September 11th.  It would be really nice if a few guys stepped up in this game and gave us a clearer picture.  I'm also interested in finding out who they roll out as the five starters.  Then, of course, how those guys run block and pass protect.  I was impressed by how the collection of walking wounded and back-ups protected Roethlisberger in the second game and I'm hoping they can keep that up, whoever the four guys that are surrounding Pouncey are.
2. Keenan Lewis and William Gay played well against the Eagles and the reps they're getting with the first team will help the defense throughout the course of the season.  But, they're facing off against Roddy White and Julio Jones tonight and that's some tough competition.  I would like to hope that they won't get burned, but I have a bad feeling that they will regress.  Since there's no doubt that they read this blog and are wondering what I have to say, I'm officially issuing a challenge to Lewis and Gay to step up their games and play well tonight.  It's on, guys.  See you at Jack's after the game so we can break down the film.
3. I like the signing of Jerricho Cotchery, but I'm concerned that he wasn't running with the first team in the last game.  Hopefully, he'll be running with them tonight and I can get a better look at him.  With Cotchery, Wallace, Ward, a healthy Emmanuel Sanders, Heath Miller, and the way Antonio Brown has been developing, this could be a very, very potent passing offense.  That's provided, of course, that the offensive line can keep Roethlisberger upright.
4. I want to see how much gas Michael Turner has left in the tank, strictly for Fantasy purposes.  He got a late start in his career, but it seems like he already has a lot of miles on him.  He's pushing 30, which is like 85 in running back years, so it will be good to see how he performs against a great run defense like the Steelers.
5. Similarly, I'm going to have an eye on Matt Ryan, Jones, and White.  Atlanta traded their entire draft to get Jones and I want to see if he's as good as advertised.  The Falcons have no shortage of offensive talent, either, and all those guys are on my Fantasy watch list.
6. The linebackers all have their story lines and I want to keep an eye on them. LaMarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons both signed huge deals in the offseason.  I want to see if they'll try to go out and earn that money or if they'll sit back and spend the rest of the contract counting it.  James Harrison had a rough offseason and he turned 33 in May.  James Farrior took a big step back in 2009 after a solid 2008 and he turned 36 in January.  Surprisingly, I'm not that worried about the defensive line, since they have plenty of quality, young depth, even if the average age of the starting three is death.
7. On both sides, I want to watch timing.  It has seemed off thus far this preseason -- which is understandable, considering that there weren't any team-sponsored practices in the offseason -- but all NFL team have had a few weeks to get that ironed out.  Really, I'm watching to see if it's still pretty far off and timing issues will drag out into the regular season.

I usually try to figure out what the Steelers need to do to win the game, but I have to say that I don't care if they win or lose this one.  I'm just watching out for the items discussed above.