Well, I guess they did overcome, despite the fact that I didn't think there was any way that they could. That's the best news of all. They overcame an emotionally charged, extremely talented Giants team on the road. They overcame scheduling issues, a ten point fourth quarter deficit, some very questionable officiating calls in the first half, and an incredibly foolish decision to fake a field goal instead of going for the points (more on this in the "bad news" section.)
Aside from the fake field goal debacle, special teams actually came up huge in this game. They out-gained the Giants 249-100 on punt and kick returns, Suisham converted his only field goal attempt, Drew Butler didn't have any of his punts returned, dropping two of four inside the 20, and there were no holding or block in the back penalties. This was the first solid effort from the kicking game all season and I hope they build on this success the rest of the season, even if Antonio Brown misses significant time due to his ankle injury.
They dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Isaac Redman averaged 5.7 yards per carry and New York's backs averaged only 3.1. Andre Brown and Ahmad Bradshaw are both quality players and keeping them to 68 yards on 22 carries is a huge win. Eli Manning completed less than half of his passes for 125 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. The Steelers also managed to sack him twice, which is quite an accomplishment. Not only had the struggled to bring down opposing quarterbacks thus far this season, Eli had only been sacked seven times in eight games coming into Sunday.
Victor Cruz was targeted 11 times and only caught five passes for 67 yards and no touchdowns. Hopefully, that means that Ike Taylor is at least close to his 2011 regular season form and he's left the nightmares of the playoff game at Denver and the early season behind him. Keenan Lewis had two huge penalties called on him (don't agree with the first one that went for 41 yards and set up the touchdown, but whatever), but I thought he played a great game. He was pretty much everywhere, as was Lawrence Timmons. Cortez Allen is vastly improved and LaMarr Woodley is starting to step out of James Harrison's shadow to become the focus of the pass rush.
They had a ten minute edge in time of possession, ran 69 plays to 48 for the Giants, were 6 for 13 on third down and New York was 2 for 10. If you add in kick return yards and subtract penalty yards, they out-gained the Giants 479-242.
Even though the offensive line is still struggling in pass protection -- four sacks and a forced fumble returned for a touchdown on 34 dropbacks -- they're blowing up huge holes on the inside and Foster, Pouncey, and Colon deserve all the credit for that. Paulson and Heath, as well as fullback David Johnson deserve a pat on the back as well.
It was a huge road win, a huge confidence boost, and they deserve a lot of credit for overcoming everything they overcame to pull out the victory. It was the most complete game they've played in all phases thus far this season.
Bad news is that they only won by four points.
All the stats I quoted earlier would point to at least a ten point margin of victory, if not two touchdowns. Ike Taylor let an interception slip through his fingers in the end zone, though it would've been called back on the shoulder-to-arm penalty called on Ryan Clark.
Sure, the Giants scored a defensive touchdown and that's going to tilt things in terms of stats. Yes, the two pass interference penalties on Lewis were each for 40+ yards. Those were all big plays and New York made them.
The Steelers were also 2 for 4 in the red zone -- a problem area for them all year -- and they had three drives that started in Giants territory, but yielded zero points. As they move into the second half of the season, they're going to need to improve their efficiency in the red zone and cut down on penalties.
They appear to have gelled along the offensive line and should be at least good in that area if not great, so long as they can avoid injuries. As much as I hate to agree with Phil Simms, he made a great point about the defense yesterday: They're finally starting to get healthy and a lot of their key players are returning to their old form. Woodley has hopefully put his hamstring issues behind him. Harrison's knee is improving. Casey Hampton and Brett Keisel look like they're at 100%. Larry Foote has been solid. It looks like these two huge problem areas -- consistency on defense and along the offensive line -- are at least no longer problem areas and may even be turning into strengths.
They just need to keep finishing games, put the ball in the end zone when they get inside the 20, and avoid dumb penalties.
It's also concerning me that Mike Tomlin is "going with his gut" a little too much. The fake field goal was a dumb idea. Having Suisham try a 90 yard field goal in Tennessee was a dumb idea. Going for two in Cincy was a dumb idea. Fortunately, only one of those bad calls has cost the Steelers a game.
If he wanted to go for the throat and score a touchdown -- or at least a new set of downs -- he should've just handed the ball to Redman and taken his chances. Redman averaged 5.7 yards per carry and gained 90 yards after first contact in yesterday's game. Give him the ball and see what happens. You have a much better chance of a running back that's primary responsibility is taking the ball and running with it gaining a foot and a half than you do pitching it to an awkward Canadian that usually just kicks the ball and watches other people make a play.
Then there's the fact that the kicker is seven yards behind the line of scrimmage when the ball is snapped. He has to make up those seven yards before he gets to a point where he's actually gaining anything. Weidman actually called the fake field goal and I thought he was a crazy person. Turns out, both he and Tomlin were crazy.
Now, I love Mike Tomlin and I can never stay mad at him. The decision didn't cost them the game and we all need to move on. I'm just concerned that, moving forward, Tomlin's gut is going to cost us a game that's much bigger than this one. He had his issues in Super Bowl XLV, he'll have his issues again. His gut will write checks that the Steelers can't cash. I just hope it doesn't come up wrong in a critical point in a bigger game.
But, HEY, the important thing is that they just scored a huge victory -- a game that I had penciled in as a loss at the beginning of the season -- and they appear to be on the right track, headed in the right direction.
Showing posts with label ike redman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ike redman. Show all posts
Monday, November 05, 2012
Friday, November 02, 2012
We Shall Not Overcome: Steelers at Giants Preview
Ultimately, this game boils down to what Weidman said in NFL Pick Em this week:
"The simple fact is, no matter how good the Steelers looked last week, they've sucked on the road this year. Furthermore, the Giants will be playing for their city this week in post-crisis time. Finally, the Giants are really, really good."
If you want more words than that, I've included them below, but I think the Steelers have too much to overcome in this game to win it.
They need to overcome:
In order to overcome everything they're up against, they need at least two of these four things to happen:
I had remembered that as a close game that they could've won, but really shouldn't have. The Giants won 21-14 and James Harrison snapped a ball out of the end zone, working as the reserve long snapper on the punt team. These are two stable organizations, so the personnel were basically the same as they are today.
Then I actually looked at the box score for that game and realized, dear God, how did the Giants not win by at least two touchdowns. I also realized that, aside from some guys on defense and the quarterbacks, the personnel on both sides of the ball are vastly different. Mewelde Moore was the leading rusher for the Steelers, Nate Washington was the leading receiver, and Limas Sweed caught three passes. The three starting receivers for the Giants were Steve Smith, Plaxico Burress, and Amani Toomer. So... what a difference four years makes. Yikes.
Looking back on that game also made me realize that the 2008 version of the Steeler defense was one for the ages. Four interceptions and a safety by the offense, four drives that started in Steeler territory (including two inside the Steeler 30), and they only allowed 21 points against the defending champs. Impressive stuff, even if they didn't force any turnovers of their own.
The present is of no comfort to me and neither is the past, which makes the future look very, very scary, especially Sunday's game. I just don't think they have it this week.
Prediction:
Giants 27, Steelers 13
"The simple fact is, no matter how good the Steelers looked last week, they've sucked on the road this year. Furthermore, the Giants will be playing for their city this week in post-crisis time. Finally, the Giants are really, really good."
If you want more words than that, I've included them below, but I think the Steelers have too much to overcome in this game to win it.
They need to overcome:
- Injuries. Mendenhall and Dwyer probably won't suit up, which means the back field will be Redman and Batch, which isn't good enough to beat a very talented Giants team. They'll need to be able to run the ball and run it effectively to win and I don't think they'll be able to do that with the guys they have available. Troy isn't playing, Gilbert will miss another game, Woodley and Ryan Clark are probable, but will probably be slowed down by their ailments. Without Troy and Clark to cover the back end and with Woodley not 100% to help James Harrison get to Eli Manning, Victor Cruz and company might have a really big day (provided Ike Taylor doesn't have another huge game).
- The Giants are playing for their city and their fans.
- New York has a lot of players who are good at football.
- With all the issues surrounding Hurricane Sandy and lodging, the Steelers are flying out for the game on Sunday morning. Football players are very routine oriented and anything that messes with their routines messes with them.
In order to overcome everything they're up against, they need at least two of these four things to happen:
- Run the ball effectively. Already mentioned I don't think this will happen.
- Force at least two turnovers. They've forced seven turnovers in seven games, though the Giants aren't especially good at protecting the ball, with eight interceptions and six fumbles (three lost) in eight games.
- Get to Eli. They have only 12 sacks in seven games and Manning has only been sacked seven times in eight games.
- Get a big boost from special teams. I think we can all agree this isn't going to happen. If it does, there will be a holding penalty and a celebration penalty on Antonio Brown or Chris Rainey.
I had remembered that as a close game that they could've won, but really shouldn't have. The Giants won 21-14 and James Harrison snapped a ball out of the end zone, working as the reserve long snapper on the punt team. These are two stable organizations, so the personnel were basically the same as they are today.
Then I actually looked at the box score for that game and realized, dear God, how did the Giants not win by at least two touchdowns. I also realized that, aside from some guys on defense and the quarterbacks, the personnel on both sides of the ball are vastly different. Mewelde Moore was the leading rusher for the Steelers, Nate Washington was the leading receiver, and Limas Sweed caught three passes. The three starting receivers for the Giants were Steve Smith, Plaxico Burress, and Amani Toomer. So... what a difference four years makes. Yikes.
Looking back on that game also made me realize that the 2008 version of the Steeler defense was one for the ages. Four interceptions and a safety by the offense, four drives that started in Steeler territory (including two inside the Steeler 30), and they only allowed 21 points against the defending champs. Impressive stuff, even if they didn't force any turnovers of their own.
The present is of no comfort to me and neither is the past, which makes the future look very, very scary, especially Sunday's game. I just don't think they have it this week.
Prediction:
Giants 27, Steelers 13
Friday, September 21, 2012
Old Rivalries Die Hard: Steelers at Raiders Preview
The trouble with a post like this is that I don't want to sound overconfident and have fate smack me in the face for my hubris. This is definitely a game that the Steelers should win, but I have no idea whether or not they actually will win it, because there are a lot of factors in play.
First of all, the Oakland Raiders do not suck. They sucked in 2006 and 2009 and the Steelers let them hang around in those games and ended up losing to a couple of the crappiest NFL teams of this century. They were actually decent in 2010, finished with an 8-8 record, and came into Heinz Field that season with a respectable 5-4 record, but then the Steelers completely destroyed them 35-3. So, now that they're actually a decent team this year -- not really a good team, but a decent team that has some talent -- does that mean the Steelers roll, or does that mean that they come into Oakland and lay a giant turd where the pitcher's mound should be? I have no idea.
Second of all, Ben Roethlisberger and the Bay Area do not get along. He threw four picks in that 2006 debacle, two of which were returned for touchdowns. We all know how things worked out for him in San Francisco on Monday night last December (granted, he was playing on one leg).
Thirdly, I can't tell yet if this Steelers team is a solid squad that knows how to get the job done or if they're a week-to-week team that is inconsistent. My guess is that they're a week-to-week team, because of three factors.
And, hey, there's nothing wrong with winning, but I'm just saying it's way too early to start thinking Super Bowl, or even playoffs. At least that's how I feel this week.
That's why this is an important game, even though it's supposed to be a snooze fest that the Steelers should win easy.
Above all else, they need to run the ball effectively. They're not going to blow the Raiders off the ball -- I don't think that they're good enough up front to blow anyone off the ball, to say nothing of the fact that Oakland's front seven is pretty tough and athletic -- but they need to do better than the 2.6 yards per carry they're currently averaging. One thing they can do to help that average right off the bat is to take toss plays and sweep plays out of the playbook until Rashard Mendenhall come back. Issac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are solid backs, but they don't have to quickness you need to get to the edge. Todd Haley needs to realize that and come to terms with the fact that this offense can't afford to lose eight yards a play on those runs simply because they're in the playbook.
If they can average four yards a carry, then they'll get themselves into third-and-managable situations. Better yet, they may be able to avoid third down altogether, which would be a huge step up. The fact that they've run 133 plays on offense and 34 of those of have been on third down is a bad sign. By contrast, they opponents have run 106 plays and have faced 21 third downs. Slow, plodding drives are good for killing the clock and playing keep-away, but they're really difficult to sustain and it tends to put the defense in a bad spot if they're expecting to get a breather and the offense goes three-and-out.
I think they should be able to cruise if they run the ball effectively and I think they will be able to run it effectively. The Oakland secondary is banged up, which should help the third down conversion rate. Carson Palmer is still a serviceable quarterback and he has no love for the Steelers, but he's no longer a guy that keeps defensive coordinators up at night. Their receivers are big and fast, but they have trouble separating from defenders. If Ike Taylor and Keenan Lewis play tight and physical like they did against the Jets receivers in last week's game, they should be fine.
Darren McFadden scares the hell out of me. But, he only has 54 yards on 26 carries this season and has been far more dangerous as a receiver. I'm not saying he won't break out in this game and basically take it over, but I don't think it's very likely. I think Lawrence Timmons can handle him in coverage coming out of the backfield and I think the rest of the front seven will be able to stay in their gaps and keep him bottled up in the running game.
If they can run effectively, contain McFadden, and Roethlisberger doesn't throw four interceptions, this is a very winnable game. And I think they will win.
Prediction:
Steelers 24, Raiders 10
First of all, the Oakland Raiders do not suck. They sucked in 2006 and 2009 and the Steelers let them hang around in those games and ended up losing to a couple of the crappiest NFL teams of this century. They were actually decent in 2010, finished with an 8-8 record, and came into Heinz Field that season with a respectable 5-4 record, but then the Steelers completely destroyed them 35-3. So, now that they're actually a decent team this year -- not really a good team, but a decent team that has some talent -- does that mean the Steelers roll, or does that mean that they come into Oakland and lay a giant turd where the pitcher's mound should be? I have no idea.
Second of all, Ben Roethlisberger and the Bay Area do not get along. He threw four picks in that 2006 debacle, two of which were returned for touchdowns. We all know how things worked out for him in San Francisco on Monday night last December (granted, he was playing on one leg).
Thirdly, I can't tell yet if this Steelers team is a solid squad that knows how to get the job done or if they're a week-to-week team that is inconsistent. My guess is that they're a week-to-week team, because of three factors.
- The defense doesn't get pressure on the quarterback and they don't force turnovers. That means that they have to hope that the opposing team's quarterback implodes every week like Mark Sanchez did last week. They got lucky with the horrible quarterbacks they played last season, but you can't count on bad quarterback play every week. You need to take the ball away and you need to kill drives with sacks and explosive plays.
- They don't run the ball well, but they're committed to the run. That means a lot of 3rd and 8 and 3rd and 9 situations for Roethlisberger. They've been great on third down thus far this season -- converting 19 of 34 through two games and 8 of 15 last week against the Jets -- but they're not going to be able to keep that pace up. That ten minute drive in the fourth quarter against New York last week was awesome, but it's a three-and-out or a drive that stalls at midfield if Roethlisberger doesn't convert some key third downs.
- Too many old guys and too many fragile guys on the offensive line. I have a feeling that they're going to use at least 15 more combinations on the offensive line this season. I have a feeling that the injuries to James Harrison and Troy are going to linger. I have a feeling that they're not done putting guys on injured reserve. The "next man up" played well in Week 2, but I don't think we can count on that kind of consistent performance from the back-ups all season.
And, hey, there's nothing wrong with winning, but I'm just saying it's way too early to start thinking Super Bowl, or even playoffs. At least that's how I feel this week.
That's why this is an important game, even though it's supposed to be a snooze fest that the Steelers should win easy.
Above all else, they need to run the ball effectively. They're not going to blow the Raiders off the ball -- I don't think that they're good enough up front to blow anyone off the ball, to say nothing of the fact that Oakland's front seven is pretty tough and athletic -- but they need to do better than the 2.6 yards per carry they're currently averaging. One thing they can do to help that average right off the bat is to take toss plays and sweep plays out of the playbook until Rashard Mendenhall come back. Issac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are solid backs, but they don't have to quickness you need to get to the edge. Todd Haley needs to realize that and come to terms with the fact that this offense can't afford to lose eight yards a play on those runs simply because they're in the playbook.
If they can average four yards a carry, then they'll get themselves into third-and-managable situations. Better yet, they may be able to avoid third down altogether, which would be a huge step up. The fact that they've run 133 plays on offense and 34 of those of have been on third down is a bad sign. By contrast, they opponents have run 106 plays and have faced 21 third downs. Slow, plodding drives are good for killing the clock and playing keep-away, but they're really difficult to sustain and it tends to put the defense in a bad spot if they're expecting to get a breather and the offense goes three-and-out.
I think they should be able to cruise if they run the ball effectively and I think they will be able to run it effectively. The Oakland secondary is banged up, which should help the third down conversion rate. Carson Palmer is still a serviceable quarterback and he has no love for the Steelers, but he's no longer a guy that keeps defensive coordinators up at night. Their receivers are big and fast, but they have trouble separating from defenders. If Ike Taylor and Keenan Lewis play tight and physical like they did against the Jets receivers in last week's game, they should be fine.
Darren McFadden scares the hell out of me. But, he only has 54 yards on 26 carries this season and has been far more dangerous as a receiver. I'm not saying he won't break out in this game and basically take it over, but I don't think it's very likely. I think Lawrence Timmons can handle him in coverage coming out of the backfield and I think the rest of the front seven will be able to stay in their gaps and keep him bottled up in the running game.
If they can run effectively, contain McFadden, and Roethlisberger doesn't throw four interceptions, this is a very winnable game. And I think they will win.
Prediction:
Steelers 24, Raiders 10
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Steelers West
Mostly good news this week, since the game wasn't really as close as the score would indicate.
- The game wasn't as close as the score would indicate. When it became 32-14 and the Steelers let up. They were more interested in taking time off the clock than stopping the Cardinals. They just wanted to make sure that Larry Fitzgerald didn't do anything crazy and he didn't. I'm not sure if they were just looking to make sure guys didn't get hurt, if they were trying to be good sports against their old coaches, but they let their foot off the gas. Against the 2008 or 2009 Cardinals, that would've been a huge mistake, but it's easy enough to get by the 2011 Cardinals when you build an 18 point lead. No lead is safe against the Patriots or the hated Ravens. If the Steelers manage to get a lead in those games, they should keep building on it until the game is over, if not after.
- As trips to the woodshed go, this was a pretty impressive beating. The pass rush got to Kolb, the defense forced a turnover, and the passing game lit it up, with 361 yards through the air and three touchdowns. The Steelers forced a safety. The defensive line looked solid and the linebackers were all over the field -- especially James Farrior, who is looking younger by the week, but still doesn't look young.
- Ike Taylor impressed me once again. It wouldn't be accurate to say that he shut Larry Fitzgerald down, but he did keep Fitz from taking over the game like he did in Super Bowl XLIII. Fitzgerald had four catches for 78 yards, but Taylor kept him out of the end zone and won more battles than he lost, even if you include penalty yards, as Fitzgerald was targeted ten times.
- I was surprised to discover that the Cardinals had as many sacks as the Steelers, with two. Maybe Ben Roethlisberger handled the pressure significantly better than Kolb. Maybe I've just become accustomed to Roethlisberger taking severe beatings every week and a constant barrage of pressure just looks normal to me. But, in my opinion, I thought the offensive line had another solid game in pass protection.
- Arizona had a big weakness in the secondary and the Steelers exploited it. They didn't throw 30 times in the first half, but they did plenty of damage with the shots they did take. These kinds of strategic moves -- and the fact that they made a high percentage of the plays that were available -- bode well for the rest of the season. Sure, they're a team that likes to throw the ball deep regardless of opponent, but they seemed to take more shots against the Cardinals and I was happy to see it. I would also like to mention that the Patriots have a very shaky pass defense.
Light on the bad news and some of it is nitpicky...
- Only forced one turnover, which brings them to three on the season. They're getting better at protecting the ball, but it's high time they started forcing their opponents into some bad decisions and mistakes.
- Nine penalties, though I think a third of those were on Taylor and at least one of those was ticky-tacky. Still, they can't commit nine penalties against New England and Baltimore and expect to win. Out of the nine penalties committed, three resulted in first downs for Arizona and there were two on the touchdown drive in the second quarter that helped keep that drive alive.
- I was also surprised to learn that the Steelers had 93 yards (taking out two kneel-downs by Roethlisberger). I figured the total was more like 60 or 70 yards, since they didn't seem to be in synch all game. Part of the issue was the attacking front seven for Arizona, but a larger part of the problem was that the Steelers weren't blowing up big holes for their backs. I think it's time to let Mendenhall get in there for four or five carries and see how it goes. If the line is pushing people off the ball, keep Rashard in. If they're not opening up holes, then it's time to put in Isaac Redman. Mendenhall averaged 2.5 yards a carry and Redman averaged 4.8. There's no question that Mendenhall is the more talented back, but there's also no question that Redman can do more with less. If there isn't a hole, he puts his head down and pushes ahead for at least a few yards. I don't think Mendenhall should lose his job, he's still their best option, but he's no longer the best option for every situation, so they need to start a committee approach. That also means getting Mewelde Moore involved, which will be covered in further detail in the Patriots preview.
- I love that Mike Wallace ended up with 118 yards and a touchdown. But, if you factor in that 95 of those yards came on one catch and that he was targeted seven times, that makes for a pretty inefficient game. I know that Wallace doesn't run a lot of high percentage routes, but they need to do better than three catches on seven targets. That would involve throwing more short passes his way, including some more of those quick slants that seem to have found their way out of the game plan.
- I still don't know if the Steelers are good, bad, great, average, or dominant. Right now, they're still miscellaneous. The good news in this bit of bad news is that they've won the games they were supposed to win thus far, so they're a 5-2 enigma instead of a 3-4 or 2-5 enigma. I guess that we can say we'll know more after Sunday's game against the Patriots. I just wish I knew more now.
I'll say that I'm satisfied by Sunday's performance, but I'll also say that I'm still worried.
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Good News and Bad News: Steelers vs Jaguars
I tried to get started on writing this a number of times yesterday and really couldn't come up with an angle. It's basically the same story as it was against the Seahawks and the Colts: The Steelers won, they did some things well, but it's not as though there was any catharsis behind the victory. Week 5 against the Titans was a catharsis game. They took out all the frustration and anxiety of the season out on an opponent that thought they had a chance to win, but didn't know what hit them.
Unlike most situations, you root for the bully when they're your team. It's a guilty pleasure, because everyone still gets paid regardless of the outcome, you just hope no one gets seriously injured. If your team beats another team senseless, there's a sense of satisfaction and relief. You're satisfied that you follow a good team and you're relieved that there isn't a fourth quarter/Hail Mary situation like we had on Sunday. When you expect your team to crush the other team, you're unsatisfied and worried if they don't. I would say that I'm dissatisfied with Sunday's performance, but I'm not worried.
The Jaguars are a young team and they'll improve. One of the steps toward improvement is not giving up. They didn't give up in the second half and everyone was pretty much expecting them to. I think the second half was more a result of improved effort and execution by Jacksonville than the Steelers slacking off, not being a good team, or not executing properly. Ben Roethlisberger was off all game, it's just that it was windy in the second half, so that made it look like he took a nosedive. There were plays to be made, the Steelers just didn't make all of them. What they did do is make enough plays to win, which is sufficient, even if it's not satisfying.
I'm not worried because the plays were there. Those plays only need to be made eventually and consistently, not every time. If a team hit every big play that was available to them, they'd be unstoppable. I'm not looking for unstoppable, I'm looking for great. Great means making more plays than you miss. Roethlisberger may have another "off" game this season, but he won't be this far off very often. And, even though he was off, he still managed 8.7 yards per attempt and 16.7 yards per completion, and I will take that.
I'm not worried because I'm actually starting to believe that the offensive line will come together and be a good unit. That's provided they have the same five guys in the starting line-up for consecutive weeks, which hasn't happened yet. The good news is that they've played fairly well the past few games even though there have been a lot of injuries. I think the pass protection continues to be consistent and the running game continues to improve. As he showed, Rashard Mendenhall can do a lot of damage if there's solid blocking in front of him. He's their best option. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer wouldn't have scored a touchdown in the first quarter with the same blocking. They would've gotten stopped at the one or two yard line and I think we all know how dicey things have been for the Steelers inside the five the past few years.
I'm not worried because William Gay and Ike Taylor have been playing quite well. Ryan Clark has stepped up his game. Troy Polamalu has been much more controlled the past two games, but he hasn't lost any of his explosiveness. More importantly, he passed concussion tests this week, so he should be available for Steelers West. Brett Keisel made a triumphant return to the line-up. LaMarr Woodley is playing out of his mind, which makes up for the fact that James Harrison is out. Farrior and Timmons are much improved, though Timmons looks like he still has room to improve.
The only thing that concerns me is turnovers. They've done a better job of protecting the ball the past couple of weeks, but they're still not taking it away. Forcing two turnovers in six games is not getting it done. As I've mentioned before, turnovers can be the result of tipped passed and lucky bounces, but you also make your own luck. That's why they call it forcing turnovers.
But, they're also 4-2 after six games and only half a game behind the hated Ravens for the division lead. Now is not the time to panic. There will be plenty of time for that later.
Unlike most situations, you root for the bully when they're your team. It's a guilty pleasure, because everyone still gets paid regardless of the outcome, you just hope no one gets seriously injured. If your team beats another team senseless, there's a sense of satisfaction and relief. You're satisfied that you follow a good team and you're relieved that there isn't a fourth quarter/Hail Mary situation like we had on Sunday. When you expect your team to crush the other team, you're unsatisfied and worried if they don't. I would say that I'm dissatisfied with Sunday's performance, but I'm not worried.
The Jaguars are a young team and they'll improve. One of the steps toward improvement is not giving up. They didn't give up in the second half and everyone was pretty much expecting them to. I think the second half was more a result of improved effort and execution by Jacksonville than the Steelers slacking off, not being a good team, or not executing properly. Ben Roethlisberger was off all game, it's just that it was windy in the second half, so that made it look like he took a nosedive. There were plays to be made, the Steelers just didn't make all of them. What they did do is make enough plays to win, which is sufficient, even if it's not satisfying.
I'm not worried because the plays were there. Those plays only need to be made eventually and consistently, not every time. If a team hit every big play that was available to them, they'd be unstoppable. I'm not looking for unstoppable, I'm looking for great. Great means making more plays than you miss. Roethlisberger may have another "off" game this season, but he won't be this far off very often. And, even though he was off, he still managed 8.7 yards per attempt and 16.7 yards per completion, and I will take that.
I'm not worried because I'm actually starting to believe that the offensive line will come together and be a good unit. That's provided they have the same five guys in the starting line-up for consecutive weeks, which hasn't happened yet. The good news is that they've played fairly well the past few games even though there have been a lot of injuries. I think the pass protection continues to be consistent and the running game continues to improve. As he showed, Rashard Mendenhall can do a lot of damage if there's solid blocking in front of him. He's their best option. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer wouldn't have scored a touchdown in the first quarter with the same blocking. They would've gotten stopped at the one or two yard line and I think we all know how dicey things have been for the Steelers inside the five the past few years.
I'm not worried because William Gay and Ike Taylor have been playing quite well. Ryan Clark has stepped up his game. Troy Polamalu has been much more controlled the past two games, but he hasn't lost any of his explosiveness. More importantly, he passed concussion tests this week, so he should be available for Steelers West. Brett Keisel made a triumphant return to the line-up. LaMarr Woodley is playing out of his mind, which makes up for the fact that James Harrison is out. Farrior and Timmons are much improved, though Timmons looks like he still has room to improve.
The only thing that concerns me is turnovers. They've done a better job of protecting the ball the past couple of weeks, but they're still not taking it away. Forcing two turnovers in six games is not getting it done. As I've mentioned before, turnovers can be the result of tipped passed and lucky bounces, but you also make your own luck. That's why they call it forcing turnovers.
But, they're also 4-2 after six games and only half a game behind the hated Ravens for the division lead. Now is not the time to panic. There will be plenty of time for that later.
Friday, September 30, 2011
Everything's Bigger in Texas: Steelers at Texans Preview
Well, so, since the cat is already out of the bag and Weidman and I both picked Houston in this week's Pick Em, I'm going to talk about why I think the Texans will win, then about what the Steelers would need to do to pull off an upset.
The reason I think Houston will win is that they don't need to do anything special to dispatch the Steelers and move to 3-1. In order to win, they need to run a balanced offense and play well enough on defense. They've been able to do both those things thus far this season, aside from their total collapse in the fourth quarter against the Saints in Week 3. They have almost a 50/50 run/pass ratio, they're averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt, and they've held opposing quarterbacks to an 82.1 rating. Now, that's not a great track record on defense, but it's good enough. Also consider the fact that they playing against Drew Brees last week and Brees had three touchdown passes in the final quarter alone.
Texans coach Gary Kubiak knows that his team has an exceptional record when they run the ball 30 times or more in a game. Even if Arian Foster still isn't at 100%, Ben Tate should be a more than sufficient substitute, especially if the Steeler run defense can't get their act together. There was once a time, way back in 2010, when you couldn't run on the Steelers at all, so you didn't even try. You'd take your chances passing the ball every down and hope that you had the talent to light them up and blockers capable enough to keep pass rushers at bay. This season, teams are averaging 4.6 yards per carry against the Steelers. If Houston runs the ball 30 times at 4.6 yards per attempt, that's 138 yards rushing, which will be more than enough to keep the pass defense off balance.
There are two ways to stop a strong pass rush: Run the ball effectively and Block well. There are other, more subtle ways, but those are the most sure-fire ways to keep your quarterback upright. The Texans can do both. Matt Schaub has shown himself to be more than capable. He's playing at home and Houston is looking to bounce back from a humiliating loss to the Saints (just the way the game played out, New Orleans is a good team and there's no real shame in losing to them).
Since they know that they will be able to run the ball effectively, they'll certainly come out and try to run it. Once they start running the ball well and get the Steeler defense back-pedaling, they'll start to throw the ball. They'll have success with that, because their offense will be balanced and the Steelers will be off balance. It will play out much as it did against the hated Ravens, but I don't think the game will get that ugly, primarily because I don't think the Texans will force seven turnovers.
I think the Texans will use a balanced offense to build a comfortable lead and that will be enough of a cushion so that they continue to just play well enough on defense. I just don't think the Steelers have enough on offense to keep up with Houston and they aren't good enough on defense to stop the Texans if they're running the ball well and have that 50/50 ratio working for them.
But, if they can stop Houston from running all over them, then they have a shot. In my opinion, the Texans aren't as loaded in the passing game as everyone seems to think they are. Schaub is a great quarterback, Foster is a very skilled receiver out of the backfield, Andre Johnson is outstanding, and Owen Daniels is one of the better tight ends in the league. Yes, that's a lot of talent and a lot of weapons, but that's pretty much where it stops. Their other receivers -- most notably Kevin Walter, who has gone from, "one of the best #2 receivers in the league," to, "that guy Schaub throws to when the other team triple covers Andre Johnson" -- aren't that great. On top of that, Schaub only completes 56 percent of his passes when the opposing team rushes five or more guys. So, stop the run, blitz the hell out of Schaub, hope for a turnover.
On offense, the Steelers need to run the ball effectively. That doesn't mean they need to run the ball a lot. I'm not looking for Ike Redman and Rashard Mendenhall to get 20 carries each. They just need to do about a yard or a yard and a half better than they the 3.3 yards per carry they've been averaging thus far this season. Since the "Block Well" option probably isn't going to happen, they need to run the ball to keep the pass rush honest. Houston doesn't have a spectacular pass rush -- and they certainly don't have a couple of flying murderballs like Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis -- but they're plenty good enough to sack Ben Roethlisberger if they're allowed to pin their ears back and come running as soon as he says "hut." The offensive line is going to feature two new starters, with Trai Essex in at left tackle and Ramon Foster in at right guard, so they'll need to create that half second of hesitation in the pass rush to have any prayer of protecting Roethlisberger.
The ultimate winning strategy is to keep the game close in the fourth quarter, since the Texans are known choke artists and this is one of the bigger games in the franchise's history. For the Steelers, it's just Game 4 on their 2011 schedule. If Houston doesn't come out and blow the Steelers off the field in the first half and the game stays close late, then the chests of the Texans players will start to tighten. Even at that point, the Steelers will need to make the necessary clutch plays to win the game.
All this means that there is an extremely slim chance that the Steelers get out of Texas with a win.
Prediction:
Texans 30, Steelers 20
The reason I think Houston will win is that they don't need to do anything special to dispatch the Steelers and move to 3-1. In order to win, they need to run a balanced offense and play well enough on defense. They've been able to do both those things thus far this season, aside from their total collapse in the fourth quarter against the Saints in Week 3. They have almost a 50/50 run/pass ratio, they're averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt, and they've held opposing quarterbacks to an 82.1 rating. Now, that's not a great track record on defense, but it's good enough. Also consider the fact that they playing against Drew Brees last week and Brees had three touchdown passes in the final quarter alone.
Texans coach Gary Kubiak knows that his team has an exceptional record when they run the ball 30 times or more in a game. Even if Arian Foster still isn't at 100%, Ben Tate should be a more than sufficient substitute, especially if the Steeler run defense can't get their act together. There was once a time, way back in 2010, when you couldn't run on the Steelers at all, so you didn't even try. You'd take your chances passing the ball every down and hope that you had the talent to light them up and blockers capable enough to keep pass rushers at bay. This season, teams are averaging 4.6 yards per carry against the Steelers. If Houston runs the ball 30 times at 4.6 yards per attempt, that's 138 yards rushing, which will be more than enough to keep the pass defense off balance.
There are two ways to stop a strong pass rush: Run the ball effectively and Block well. There are other, more subtle ways, but those are the most sure-fire ways to keep your quarterback upright. The Texans can do both. Matt Schaub has shown himself to be more than capable. He's playing at home and Houston is looking to bounce back from a humiliating loss to the Saints (just the way the game played out, New Orleans is a good team and there's no real shame in losing to them).
Since they know that they will be able to run the ball effectively, they'll certainly come out and try to run it. Once they start running the ball well and get the Steeler defense back-pedaling, they'll start to throw the ball. They'll have success with that, because their offense will be balanced and the Steelers will be off balance. It will play out much as it did against the hated Ravens, but I don't think the game will get that ugly, primarily because I don't think the Texans will force seven turnovers.
I think the Texans will use a balanced offense to build a comfortable lead and that will be enough of a cushion so that they continue to just play well enough on defense. I just don't think the Steelers have enough on offense to keep up with Houston and they aren't good enough on defense to stop the Texans if they're running the ball well and have that 50/50 ratio working for them.
But, if they can stop Houston from running all over them, then they have a shot. In my opinion, the Texans aren't as loaded in the passing game as everyone seems to think they are. Schaub is a great quarterback, Foster is a very skilled receiver out of the backfield, Andre Johnson is outstanding, and Owen Daniels is one of the better tight ends in the league. Yes, that's a lot of talent and a lot of weapons, but that's pretty much where it stops. Their other receivers -- most notably Kevin Walter, who has gone from, "one of the best #2 receivers in the league," to, "that guy Schaub throws to when the other team triple covers Andre Johnson" -- aren't that great. On top of that, Schaub only completes 56 percent of his passes when the opposing team rushes five or more guys. So, stop the run, blitz the hell out of Schaub, hope for a turnover.
On offense, the Steelers need to run the ball effectively. That doesn't mean they need to run the ball a lot. I'm not looking for Ike Redman and Rashard Mendenhall to get 20 carries each. They just need to do about a yard or a yard and a half better than they the 3.3 yards per carry they've been averaging thus far this season. Since the "Block Well" option probably isn't going to happen, they need to run the ball to keep the pass rush honest. Houston doesn't have a spectacular pass rush -- and they certainly don't have a couple of flying murderballs like Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis -- but they're plenty good enough to sack Ben Roethlisberger if they're allowed to pin their ears back and come running as soon as he says "hut." The offensive line is going to feature two new starters, with Trai Essex in at left tackle and Ramon Foster in at right guard, so they'll need to create that half second of hesitation in the pass rush to have any prayer of protecting Roethlisberger.
The ultimate winning strategy is to keep the game close in the fourth quarter, since the Texans are known choke artists and this is one of the bigger games in the franchise's history. For the Steelers, it's just Game 4 on their 2011 schedule. If Houston doesn't come out and blow the Steelers off the field in the first half and the game stays close late, then the chests of the Texans players will start to tighten. Even at that point, the Steelers will need to make the necessary clutch plays to win the game.
All this means that there is an extremely slim chance that the Steelers get out of Texas with a win.
Prediction:
Texans 30, Steelers 20
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