Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Raiders

Not a lot of good news, particularly after an ugly, frustrating loss like this one, but let's get the good news out of the way first:

1. Ben Roethlisberger played a fantastic game, only getting sacked once in 50 dropbacks, not throwing an interception, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, throwing four touchdown passes, and going 8-for-14 on third down.  I know the Raiders were thin in the secondary -- safety Michael Huff played the entire game at cornerback -- but this was still a very impressive effort by Roethlisberger, especially considering that the running game was non-existent.
2. I like the fact that they got Mike Wallace and Heath Miller prominently involved in the passing game.

Bad News:

1. The pass rush didn't generate nearly enough pressure and hasn't all season.  The only time they get sacks or generate pressure is either when LaMarr Woodley makes an exceptional individual effort or they rush six or more guys.  They don't have the talent in the secondary to cover receivers for more than three seconds.  Most teams don't.  I'd like to say this issue will be fixed when/if James Harrison comes back, but I don't think it will.  I know that Harrison -- or even Jason Worilds -- would be a big upgrade in terms of pass rush ability, but I don't know that upgrading one spot is going to be the silver bullet that fixes everything.
2. They went to prevent defense mode far too early, which is one reason they blew two ten point fourth quarter leads.
3. Rashard Mendenhall can't come back soon enough.  I think it's smart that the Steelers have been trying not to rush him back, but I also think they can't wait any longer.  Issac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer and Baron Batch aren't bad players, they're just not as explosive as Mendenhall.  They don't have the speed to get to the edge, so defenses can focus on clogging up the middle and waiting for Redman and Dwyer and Batch to run into them.  Since defenses don't need to worry about protecting the edge, it makes it easier for them to defend the run.  When it becomes easier to defend the run, they have to worry about it less and can focus on defending the pass.  All of this means that it's going to get harder and harder for Roethlisberger to keep having the season he's having.
4. Special teams hasn't been very special thus far this season and yesterday was another example.  Shaun Suisham had two line drive kickoffs that didn't make it to the end zone and Oakland returned both of them for a total of 87 yards.  Antonio Brown had a punt return for a touchdown called back. At that point in the game, it would have made the score 21-7 if it counted and would have probably sent the Raiders into a tailspin.  Instead, Dwyer fumbles, Oakland scores, and it's suddenly a ball game again.
5. Technically, they've "forced" two turnovers thus far this season, but they haven't actually forced any turnovers.  One turnover was the result of a muffed punt in the Jets game and the other was an interception by Ryan Clark that occurred after Denarius Moore slipped and fell down.  They've only committed three turnovers, which is good, but the defense isn't good enough -- or young enough -- to face drive after drive and not be expected to buckle.

There were a number of things that went wrong yesterday, but the biggest cause for concern is the fact that Oakland is hardly an offensive powerhouse and they scored 34 points and what was supposed to be a solid defense.  The Raiders scored 14 points against the Chargers in Week 1 and only 13 against the Dolphins in Week 2.  The Steelers have already allowed two opponents to score 30 or more points against them and we're only in Week 3.  They allowed 30 points in a game once in 2010 and once in 2011.

Their issues on defense go beyond just the pass rush, but getting guys healthy and finding ways to get more pressure on the quarterback is the best "quick fix" option that they have.  Hopefully Harrison, Mendenhall, and Polamalu will return after the bye and things will get closer to normal. 

But, I have a feeling that there really is no quick fix and that we could be in for a long season.  This isn't based just off the loss to the Raiders or the loss to the Broncos, even though both of those sucked.  It's based off the fact that they've been underwhelming thus far this season and I think things will get worse before they get better.

Old Rivalries Die Hard: Steelers at Raiders Preview

The trouble with a post like this is that I don't want to sound overconfident and have fate smack me in the face for my hubris.  This is definitely a game that the Steelers should win, but I have no idea whether or not they actually will win it, because there are a lot of factors in play.

First of all, the Oakland Raiders do not suck.  They sucked in 2006 and 2009 and the Steelers let them hang around in those games and ended up losing to a couple of the crappiest NFL teams of this century.  They were actually decent in 2010, finished with an 8-8 record, and came into Heinz Field that season with a respectable 5-4 record, but then the Steelers completely destroyed them 35-3.  So, now that they're actually a decent team this year -- not really a good team, but a decent team that has some talent -- does that mean the Steelers roll, or does that mean that they come into Oakland and lay a giant turd where the pitcher's mound should be?  I have no idea.

Second of all, Ben Roethlisberger and the Bay Area do not get along.  He threw four picks in that 2006 debacle, two of which were returned for touchdowns.  We all know how things worked out for him in San Francisco on Monday night last December (granted, he was playing on one leg).

Thirdly, I can't tell yet if this Steelers team is a solid squad that knows how to get the job done or if they're a week-to-week team that is inconsistent.  My guess is that they're a week-to-week team, because of three factors.

1. The defense doesn't get pressure on the quarterback and they don't force turnovers.  That means that they have to hope that the opposing team's quarterback implodes every week like Mark Sanchez did last week.  They got lucky with the horrible quarterbacks they played last season, but you can't count on bad quarterback play every week.  You need to take the ball away and you need to kill drives with sacks and explosive plays.
2. They don't run the ball well, but they're committed to the run.  That means a lot of 3rd and 8 and 3rd and 9 situations for Roethlisberger.  They've been great on third down thus far this season -- converting 19 of 34 through two games and 8 of 15 last week against the Jets -- but they're not going to be able to keep that pace up.  That ten minute drive in the fourth quarter against New York last week was awesome, but it's a three-and-out or a drive that stalls at midfield if Roethlisberger doesn't convert some key third downs.
3. Too many old guys and too many fragile guys on the offensive line.  I have a feeling that they're going to use at least 15 more combinations on the offensive line this season.  I have a feeling that the injuries to James Harrison and Troy are going to linger.  I have a feeling that they're not done putting guys on injured reserve.  The "next man up" played well in Week 2, but I don't think we can count on that kind of consistent performance from the back-ups all season.

I say all this because, after thinking about the Jets game last week, I don't think it was a dominant performance.  I don't think they beat up the Jets or even wore them down.  I think, like the Seahawks game last year, they just kind of leaned on the Jets until they fell over.  Once the lead got to ten points and the clock kept winding, you knew that Sanchez wasn't going to be able to pull the game out.  The rest was just details for the box score.

And, hey, there's nothing wrong with winning, but I'm just saying it's way too early to start thinking Super Bowl, or even playoffs.  At least that's how I feel this week.

That's why this is an important game, even though it's supposed to be a snooze fest that the Steelers should win easy. 

Above all else, they need to run the ball effectively.  They're not going to blow the Raiders off the ball -- I don't think that they're good enough up front to blow anyone off the ball, to say nothing of the fact that Oakland's front seven is pretty tough and athletic -- but they need to do better than the 2.6 yards per carry they're currently averaging.  One thing they can do to help that average right off the bat is to take toss plays and sweep plays out of the playbook until Rashard Mendenhall come back.  Issac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are solid backs, but they don't have to quickness you need to get to the edge.  Todd Haley needs to realize that and come to terms with the fact that this offense can't afford to lose eight yards a play on those runs simply because they're in the playbook.

If they can average four yards a carry, then they'll get themselves into third-and-managable situations.  Better yet, they may be able to avoid third down altogether, which would be a huge step up.  The fact that they've run 133 plays on offense and 34 of those of have been on third down is a bad sign.  By contrast, they opponents have run 106 plays and have faced 21 third downs.  Slow, plodding drives are good for killing the clock and playing keep-away, but they're really difficult to sustain and it tends to put the defense in a bad spot if they're expecting to get a breather and the offense goes three-and-out.

I think they should be able to cruise if they run the ball effectively and I think they will be able to run it effectively.  The Oakland secondary is banged up, which should help the third down conversion rate.  Carson Palmer is still a serviceable quarterback and he has no love for the Steelers, but he's no longer a guy that keeps defensive coordinators up at night.  Their receivers are big and fast, but they have trouble separating from defenders.  If Ike Taylor and Keenan Lewis play tight and physical like they did against the Jets receivers in last week's game, they should be fine.

Darren McFadden scares the hell out of me.  But, he only has 54 yards on 26 carries this season and has been far more dangerous as a receiver.  I'm not saying he won't break out in this game and basically take it over, but I don't think it's very likely.  I think Lawrence Timmons can handle him in coverage coming out of the backfield and I think the rest of the front seven will be able to stay in their gaps and keep him bottled up in the running game.

If they can run effectively, contain McFadden, and Roethlisberger doesn't throw four interceptions, this is a very winnable game.  And I think they will win.

Prediction:
Steelers 24, Raiders 10