Heisenberged: Bears at Steelers Preview

OK, here's the thing: I'm 95% sure I'm going to watch Breaking Bad at 9 p.m. on Sunday instead of watching the Steeler game.  I'll most likely record the game and watch that hour of it later -- with the bonus of avoiding the 15 or so commercial breaks that NBC is probably going to jam into the first half, while the game is still competitive -- but I think I've convinced myself that watching Breaking Bad is a better use of my time.  I know that I'm going to enjoy it, that I'm going to be entertained, and that, with all the updates and spoilers I'm going to see on the Internet, it makes more sense to watch it live rather than recording it and watching it later.  I don't want to slog through an hour, bored out of my mind, only watching because of a sense of obligation, because I've invested so much time already.  If I wanted to spend an hour that way, I'd just watch Dexter.

I'm being melodramatic and I'm exaggerating, but not by a whole lot.  I know that Breaking Bad will deliver the goods and I can't say the same about the Steelers.

After they opened the season 0-2, there was a quick flurry of, "They opened the season 0-2 in 2002 and won the division that year!" observations, but then everyone realized that this team is different than that 2002 team.  That team opened against the Patriots and the Raiders (remember that's the year the Raiders went to the Super Bowl, so this was before they sucked).  New England was defending its title.  That was a deeper Steeler team, a more talented team, and a squad that just happened to draw the two best teams in the AFC in their first two games.

The 2013 Steelers may actually be good, I'm still not sure, but they certainly have a confidence problem.  The offensive line lacks confidence -- they're not sure how good they are, there's real anxiety about everyone getting hurt, and they haven't been together long enough to be confident in each other.  Solid offensive line play is equal parts talent, rote, and determination.  There's plenty of athletic talent on this line, but they haven't played and practiced together much, so the familiarity isn't there.  Determination is having the confidence to try to do something and the tenacity to see it through.  If they don't have confidence, they can't see it through.  That's where it all starts and it trickles down from there.

The coaches don't think the line can pass protect for more than a couple of seconds, so they're calling safer, shorter plays.  I'm not a huge fan of Todd Haley, but I don't think you can pin this on him.  If he calls too many aggressive pass plays that call for long dropbacks, he exposes Ben Roethlisberger to injury.  If Roethlisberger gets hurt, then the season is sunk for sure.  Haley doesn't have Mike Wallace to take the top off the defense.  He doesn't have a back that he trusts to hold onto the ball.  They don't have any explosive players and they're not making any explosive plays.  If they start to trust the offensive line, if they start to make some big plays, they'll gain some confidence.  Confidence is contagious. The trouble is that I don't see enough guys on this roster to foster that kind of confidence and make those kinds of plays.  I don't think that getting Heath Miller and Le'Veon Bell fixes that.  I think they just need to take baby steps until they can walk.  That might not happen this season.

The defensive is playing it safe and there are two explosive playmakers on that side of the ball: Troy Polamalu and Jarvis Jones.  Jones is going to be an amazing player, but he's still young and raw.  Troy, as much as I love him and think he's a great player, will get hurt by Week 6.  If he doesn't get hurt and Jones makes serious strides, then they've got a little bit of something going on defense.  But, they still don't have enough.  They need to start piling up sacks and forcing turnovers, making big plays on defense.  Right now, they're playing it safe.  They're playing not to lose.  Again, this isn't something I blame the coordinator for, as if I could ever say anything bad about Dick LeBeau.  These are just the circumstances they're operating under with the players they have, at the development levels they have them.

These guys will get better, they will gain confidence, they will come together, they will make plays.  I just think the 2013 version of this team is a lot like the 2003 version of this team.  Both seasons had similar vibes to them.  Both teams had issues on the offensive line (remember that Alan Faneca played left tackle for a few games).  They needed to develop and gain confidence.

Bad news: That 2003 team finished 6-10.  Good news: With basically the same personnel (plus a rookie phenom named Ben Roethlisberger), they went 15-1 in 2004.

Now, for the bad news for Sunday: The Bears are already a developed team that is playing as well as they can play.  They're 2-0 and looking to build on recent successes.  The Steelers are 0-2 and looking to avoid recent failures.

I hope the Steelers are going to be in the lead (or at least keeping the game competitive) when I switch over from Breaking Bad at 10 p.m. on Sunday, but I doubt it.

Prediction:
Bears 24, Steelers 13

Remember the Titans... Suck: Titans at Steelers Preview

Holy crap.  There hasn't been a post on the ol' SteelersNAt blog since August 15th.  I would've thought August 26th, but what do I know.

Looks like football season is upon us and the Steelers host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday at 1 p.m. at Heinz Field.

I mentioned during the preseason that I didn't have high hopes for the Steelers this season; I just don't want them to be boring like they were last season.  They finished 8-8, which is kind of like kissing your sister. But, the average score in those games was 21-19 and there were a number of turnover-riddled snoozefests that ended 16-14 or 13-10 or 20-14.  So, last year was kind of like watching your sister kiss all your uncles on the cheek.  Which... I guess means I'd like to watch my sister make out with random dudes this season.  And that doesn't make any sense.

What I'd like to see is exciting games with big plays -- even if it means poor tackling and poor coverage -- and a finish within one game of 8-8 (7-9, 8-8, or 9-7, doesn't really matter).  I think that Sunday's game has a high potential to kick off the season right, with lots of scoring, defensive breakdowns, offensive breakdowns, and crazy plays.

Consider:

1. Chris Johnson can break a big play at any time.
2. Kenny Britt had his first big game against the Steelers and Nate Washington has big play potential (or at least he did at one point and maybe he's still mad that he doesn't play for Pittsburgh anymore).
3. The Titans defense is young and opportunistic.  Better yet, they're young, inexperienced, and undisciplined, so maybe the cornerbacks will jump routes and miss, allowing a big play on the back end.  Maybe they'll jump routes and hit, making a big play.
4. Ben Roethlisberger is quirky and unpredictable.  If they start to struggle running the ball early on -- and they probably will -- then Roethlisberger might decide to let it rip.
5. This year's defense can't possibly be worse at forcing turnovers than last year's... can it?

On the other side of all this is the fact that neither team's offensive line looks like it's all the way together yet. That's a wild card in that it could lead to a lot of big plays -- strip-sacks and whatnot -- or it could lead to a lot of futility and three-and-outs.

The good news is that Tennessee doesn't have a very good team and they're in Year Two of a pretty painful four year rebuilding process.  They may be competitive and dangerous eventually, but not now.  Their front seven has been repeatedly gutted by free agency and Bernard Pollard might be their best player in the secondary.  On offense, Jake Locker is a great athlete, but he's a terrible quarterback.  The Steelers tend to feast on terrible quarterbacks.  Despite the nice things I said about Britt and Washington, those guys are a couple of oft-injured, wildly inconsistent "upside guys" that keep getting chances because someone is dumb enough to believe that they'll put it all together eventually if they just get enough chances.

Chris Johnson is the guy to fear, even if he's been underwhelming the past two or three seasons.  He's still explosive, still super fast, and can still break off a long touchdown at any moment.  The Titans are going to feed him the ball because they have no other real option.  If he gets enough chances, he'll break a big gain eventually.  The Steelers just need to stay focused, maintain their lanes on defense, and practice sound tackling fundamentals.

The Steelers are an average team, but the Titans are a bad team.  The fact that Roethlisberger is one of the seven or eight best quarterbacks in the league lifts the Steelers from being below average to just average.  If they can't beat Tennessee, then they are a bad team (I don't care if the Titans finish with a winning record, bad teams can get lucky as these same Titans did in 2011).

In order to not embarrass themselves, the Steelers need to win this game.  If they can get off to a winning start, they'll enter next week with more confidence -- and they'll need all the help they can get against the Bengals.  If they lose this week, they could very well open up the season 0-3.  If they split their non-division conference games (home against the Titans, at Miami), go 3-1 against the atrocious AFC East (yes, this means they're going to lose at home to the Patriots; I've accepted it, the sooner you do the better for your sanity), split their division games, and split with their non-conference games (a pretty up-in-the-air NFC North), then they're looking at a 9-7 season.  

Maybe they catch some breaks, beat the Dolphins and go 4-2 in the division, that puts them at 11-5.

The X-Factor this season is the guys they've drafted since 2010.  There are only four guys on the roster from  the 2006-2009 draft classes -- Woodley, Timmons, Ziggy Hood, and David Johnson.  There are five players still on the roster from the 2002-2005 draft classes -- Ben, Troy, Keisel, Ike Taylor, and Heath.  With no young veterans stepping up -- and the guys from those 2006-2009 classes should all be playing vital roles on the team, making up the core group of talented skill position players -- they have a bunch of old guys that need to keep playing at a high level and really young guys that need to grow up in a hurry.  Assuming that the old guard doesn't fall apart this season -- and, aside from Troy missing at least 5-6 games every season with various injuries, it doesn't look like they will fall apart -- then it's up to the 2010-Present draft classes to make up that talent gap and deliver.

If they can deliver in a big way, then you're looking at a 12-4 or 13-3 season.  I don't think they're all going to deliver in a big way.  I think some of them will make a big leap forward, some of them will be average, and some of them will fall off.  When that happens, you're looking at 8-8 or 7-9 or 9-7.  If injuries keep mounting and the depth of this team is really tested, then it's a 6-10 or 5-11 situation, but I don't think that's going to happen.

They're an average team and they're going to finish with an average record.  They'll do slightly better or worse depending on luck.  I've seen so many successful seasons in the last decade or so that I really don't care how well (or not) they do during the regular season. I believe that there's a big enough talent gap between them and the favorites from the AFC that I know they won't advance to (and win) the Super Bowl. If they're not going to win the Super Bowl and are probably going to be average, I just don't want to be bored when it's happening.

It all starts on Sunday against the Tennessee Titans and, the good lord willing, it will be exciting.

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Bengals

Given the fact that it was a must-win game, the hated Ravens look shakier than ever, and starting the season 2-4 would've made it extremely difficult for the Steelers to claw their way into the playoffs, I'm very pleased that they won.

Trouble is, there was more bad news in this game than good.

Good news first:

1. Shout out to Ike Taylor!  Tremendous job by Ike.  I will take one catch for eight yards -- even if it was a touchdown -- from AJ Green any day.  Let's hope he keeps it up.  More to the point, let's hope he does somewhere close to as good when these teams play each other again in Week 16.
2. They proved they can win on the road.
3. They proved they protect a fourth quarter lead on the road.
4. They proved they can beat a weak team on the road.  Not entirely sure the Bengals are a weak team just yet, but they looked weak on Sunday night.
5. The offensive line was as solid as I've seen it all season, especially the three guys on the inside (Foster, Colon, and Legursky).  Mike Adams did quite well for his first start and he didn't get as much help from Heath Miller as Chris Collinsworth would have you believe.  Cincinnati has a talented front four and my biggest fear coming into this game was that they'd be able to blow by and out-muscle the replacement guys -- and the regular guys for that matter -- and they'd take over the game.  The starting five on Sunday night didn't allow that to happen and actually turned in a dominant performance.  When you're able to run five or six times in a row and still gain chunks of yardage, the guys up front are doing their jobs.  I don't care if the Bengals came in with a run defense that was ranked in the 20s.  So did the Raiders and Titans, but the Steelers didn't get the kind of push in those games that they got Sunday night.
6. Productive and effective on third down once again, regardless of distance.  The Steelers have converted 53.8 percent of third downs so far this season.  That's a great number for one games, no less through six games.
7. Heath Miller is finally putting up big numbers because the Steelers are finally making a specific effort to get the ball in his hands, and at all depth levels in the route tree.  Good times.  Now, if only they had been feeding him the ball like this since 2005.

Bad News:

1. The penalties, dear God, the penalties.  Special teams was the big loser this week, but it seems like a different unit is wearing the dunce cap every week.  The good news is that special teams penalties are the easiest to fix because the guys that play in the kicking game are the easiest to replace.  Tomlin mentioned in his press conference today that the best way to cut down on dumb penalties is to have the guys that are committing them watching from the sidelines.
2. From the Obvious Department, but I still feel it needs to be said: I would prefer that they do a better job on first down and second down so that they never need to see third down.  It's great that they have the confidence and talent to convert all those third down chances, but it's also not really sustainable.  If they can keep this up, it gives them a big advantage, but I'm thinking they can't.  If they can't keep up that 53.8 percent conversion rate, then they'll be in deep trouble the rest of the season.
3. Zero sacks, two quarterback hits.  They need to get more pressure.  I'm hoping that will come once Woodley and Harrison get healthier, but I'm really not sure.  I think the key will be more blitzes from Timmons and the safeties, but they'd need to get Troy back for that, too.
4. One interception in the end zone, one fumble inside their own 10.  They were able to overcome two pretty costly turnovers, but a better team would've made them pay for those mistakes.
5. Tomlin was the best coach on the field Sunday night, but that's not saying much.  If it hadn't been for the two pointless challenge flags Marvin Lewis threw, Tomlin would've made the dumbest decision of the night.  That would be going for two after that first touchdown.  Kick early, go for two late.  Those are the rules and they are well-tested and have been proven.  They're way better than the chart.  Throw the chart away and stick with that: Kick early, go for it late.  Some say it was a ballsy call, but that's primarily because it worked.  If it hadn't worked, the Bengals would've been down by only six points and could've won it with a touchdown.

There are more items listed under "good news" than there are for "bad news" but the Bad News items are far more cause for worry than the Good News items are cause for celebration.

They had their backs against the wall, they came back on the road, they protected their lead on the the road, and the proved their veteran savvy mettle grit Steelers football (trying to think how many cliche noise words I can stuff into the end of the sentence).

They're also old, the young guys they have a mistake-prone, their receivers (and defenders) drop too many passes, which is another sign of lack of concentration and focus, and they've muddled their way through a pretty easy first six games of the season with a .500 record.  They're lucky that the rest of the division -- and really the rest of the conference -- is just as uneven and disjointed as they are.  That doesn't make them a Super Bowl contender, but it does mean that they can continue to run in place and probably still make the playoffs. 

They just need to make the right plays at the right time, most of the time.  If they want to do better than another one-and-done playoff finish, they need to do better, focus more, and get to the quarterback.

Soooo Shady: Eagles at Steelers Preview

I'm going to say that LeSean McCoy is the key to this game because I think the Steelers will be able to limit the amount of damage Michael Vick does if they can keep Shady in check.  If he's able to gouge them like Darren McFadden did in the Week 3, then they're not going to be able to contain Vick, either.

McCoy is the most talented player on a very talented offense.  He's such a bad ass that he used to say his name when he juked someone in practice as an extra-special kind of taunt.  He has excellent vision, great feet, good acceleration, and is a very capable receiver.  However, he's not a real home run threat and he doesn't do well when he doesn't have nice gaps to run through.  If the Steeler defense can maintain gap integrity, fill the running lanes, and no one tries to be a hero, they should be able to keep him hemmed in.  At least I hope so.

The Eagles are 3-1, but it hasn't been pretty.  They've won their three games by a total of four points, but they've faced a pretty formidable schedule (except for when they played the Browns).  The big issue thus far this season has been turnovers.  They commit a lot of those.  The Steelers don't force a lot of those.  So, in a case of the "moveable object versus the resistable force" the Steelers will need to force some turnovers to win this game.  This game will most likely turn into a shootout and the Steelers will need those extra possessions in order to win.  I think that they have it in them, but this game fills me with dread.

Philly has basically returned their "Dream Team" roster from 2011 (minus Vince Young), but they're actually finishing games and have been able to overcome the fact that they're their own worst enemy.  There's a ton of talent on this roster and it's finally being used properly, most notably by allowing Michael Vick to be Michael Vick and not forcing a bunch of man coverage corners to play zone.  If they play together and don't beat themselves, they could route the Steelers and it could be an ugly game.

Really, all signs and match-ups point to an Eagles victory.  But, I picked the Steelers in Pick Em this week because of what I think are several important factors.

1. They're at home and they play better at home.
2. They're coming off a bye and they've had two weeks to prepare for Philadelphia.
3. Everyone's healthy for the first time this season, most importantly James Harrison and Troy Polamalu are coming back, which should be a big boost for the defense.  I'm happy that Mendenhall is coming back and I'm starting him in two fantasy football leagues, but I think the defense's ability to get stops and force turnovers is going to be the key to this game.
4. The defense got embarrassed in Oakland and they're pissed off.  Historically, they turn in a strong performance the week after they get beat down and subsequently accused of being too old.  There's a lot of veteran leadership on the defense, but, more importantly, there are a lot of guys that take pride in playing good defense.  Their ability to come back from a poor showing and force everyone to gulp down a frosty glass of STFU is what's going to win this game for the Steelers.

I feel confident in those four points, but I'm still filled with dread.  This game could left me up, or it could crush my spirits, with the Steelers being crushed as well.

But, what the hell, gotta predict something, right?

Prediction:

Steelers 31, Eagles 27

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Raiders

Not a lot of good news, particularly after an ugly, frustrating loss like this one, but let's get the good news out of the way first:

1. Ben Roethlisberger played a fantastic game, only getting sacked once in 50 dropbacks, not throwing an interception, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, throwing four touchdown passes, and going 8-for-14 on third down.  I know the Raiders were thin in the secondary -- safety Michael Huff played the entire game at cornerback -- but this was still a very impressive effort by Roethlisberger, especially considering that the running game was non-existent.
2. I like the fact that they got Mike Wallace and Heath Miller prominently involved in the passing game.

Bad News:

1. The pass rush didn't generate nearly enough pressure and hasn't all season.  The only time they get sacks or generate pressure is either when LaMarr Woodley makes an exceptional individual effort or they rush six or more guys.  They don't have the talent in the secondary to cover receivers for more than three seconds.  Most teams don't.  I'd like to say this issue will be fixed when/if James Harrison comes back, but I don't think it will.  I know that Harrison -- or even Jason Worilds -- would be a big upgrade in terms of pass rush ability, but I don't know that upgrading one spot is going to be the silver bullet that fixes everything.
2. They went to prevent defense mode far too early, which is one reason they blew two ten point fourth quarter leads.
3. Rashard Mendenhall can't come back soon enough.  I think it's smart that the Steelers have been trying not to rush him back, but I also think they can't wait any longer.  Issac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer and Baron Batch aren't bad players, they're just not as explosive as Mendenhall.  They don't have the speed to get to the edge, so defenses can focus on clogging up the middle and waiting for Redman and Dwyer and Batch to run into them.  Since defenses don't need to worry about protecting the edge, it makes it easier for them to defend the run.  When it becomes easier to defend the run, they have to worry about it less and can focus on defending the pass.  All of this means that it's going to get harder and harder for Roethlisberger to keep having the season he's having.
4. Special teams hasn't been very special thus far this season and yesterday was another example.  Shaun Suisham had two line drive kickoffs that didn't make it to the end zone and Oakland returned both of them for a total of 87 yards.  Antonio Brown had a punt return for a touchdown called back. At that point in the game, it would have made the score 21-7 if it counted and would have probably sent the Raiders into a tailspin.  Instead, Dwyer fumbles, Oakland scores, and it's suddenly a ball game again.
5. Technically, they've "forced" two turnovers thus far this season, but they haven't actually forced any turnovers.  One turnover was the result of a muffed punt in the Jets game and the other was an interception by Ryan Clark that occurred after Denarius Moore slipped and fell down.  They've only committed three turnovers, which is good, but the defense isn't good enough -- or young enough -- to face drive after drive and not be expected to buckle.

There were a number of things that went wrong yesterday, but the biggest cause for concern is the fact that Oakland is hardly an offensive powerhouse and they scored 34 points and what was supposed to be a solid defense.  The Raiders scored 14 points against the Chargers in Week 1 and only 13 against the Dolphins in Week 2.  The Steelers have already allowed two opponents to score 30 or more points against them and we're only in Week 3.  They allowed 30 points in a game once in 2010 and once in 2011.

Their issues on defense go beyond just the pass rush, but getting guys healthy and finding ways to get more pressure on the quarterback is the best "quick fix" option that they have.  Hopefully Harrison, Mendenhall, and Polamalu will return after the bye and things will get closer to normal. 

But, I have a feeling that there really is no quick fix and that we could be in for a long season.  This isn't based just off the loss to the Raiders or the loss to the Broncos, even though both of those sucked.  It's based off the fact that they've been underwhelming thus far this season and I think things will get worse before they get better.

Get Sanchez: Jets at Steelers Preview

I have to admit that I only saw five plays of last week's game against the Broncos.  Interestingly enough, I was in Colorado at my brother in-law's wedding.

I got to look at this instead of Peyton Manning, which I think is a fair trade.

As a result, I wasn't able to witness them falling apart in the fourth quarter, though I somehow caught Demarius Thomas' 70 yard catch-and-run for a touchdown, which I took as a bad sign.  I've seen highlights and read some analysis and I have to say I'm not sure why a lot of people are freaking out.  I mean, I know why they're freaking out, it's because the Steelers lost and lost by meltdown and that's not something that people are accustomed to seeing from the Steelers.  But... I don't think the freakouts are warranted.

I tried to get everyone to calm down after the hated Ravens curb-stomped the Steelers in the opener last year.  My point was that it was only one game and the NFL would only give them one loss, no matter how poorly they played.  From what I can tell, the offense and defense performed pretty well for the first three quarters and kept Manning mostly in check.  They didn't get destroyed for four quarters like they did in Baltimore to open the 2011 season.  As you may recall, the Steelers were 12-4 last year.  They don't get to face the craptastic line-up of inept quarterbacks this season that they benefited from last season, but I think it is not yet time to panic and that there's a very solid chance they finish 10-6 or 9-7.


But, this is a Preview post for the Jets game, so I'm going to move on.

Three big items in this game:

1. Word came out today that Darelle Revis is out for this game.  That's huge.  If Revis Island is vacant, then Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders will all have better match-ups.
2. They get Ryan Clark back.  Even though Troy and James Harrison are probably out, I think adding Clark back in is a net win.  Harrison didn't play last week, either, and Troy freelanced a little too much (from what I heard and it also looked like he took himself out of the play on the Thomas touchdown).  With Clark back in there and Ryan Mundy playing things by the book, they should be fine in the secondary.  It'd just be nice if they could generate some kind of pass rush and force Sanchez into making some mistakes.
3. Read this this morning: "Pittsburgh hasn't started a season 0-2 since 2002, though that didn't stop the Steelers from finishing 10-5-1 and making it to the divisional round of the playoffs. The Steelers haven't even lost consecutive games since a five-game slide in 2009."  That's some serious consistency right there.  I have a feeling the veteran guys on this team will be extra focused on Sunday to make sure that continues.  With two teams as close talent-wise as the Jets and Steelers, that little bit of extra focus is going to help a lot.

I think the Jets offense isn't as good as the Bills made them look in Week 1 and the Steelers defense isn't as bad as Manning made them look, either.  Manning is a better quarterback than Sanchez and he also has more talent around him at the skill positions.  The Jets are almost as thin at tackle as the Steelers and I have a feeling that LaMarr Woodley "great performance against a bad player" games against Austin Howard.  Howard plays right tackle for the Jets.  I had to look it up, too.  It's OK, you shouldn't feel bad.  Howard's not that good, that's why you don't know who he is.

I don't think New York has enough push in the running game to bully a surprisingly deep Steeler defensive line.  Shonn Greene doesn't scare me and neither do any of the guys up front for the Jets.

On offense, I have to say the Jets defense doesn't scare me as much without Revis.  Without him to shut down half the field in the passing game, the opposing team's offense has a lot more options and a lot more ways to attack a pretty average group of re-tread defenders and roleplayers.  I'd also like to add that Bryant Thomas is out for this game, which decreases the odds that Ben Roethlisberger will get sacked 15 times.  My cousin, Dustin Keller, is also scratched for this game, which will hurt a Jets offense that already doesn't have a lot of weapons.  Get well soon, Dustin.  Auntie Claudette sends her love.

I think the Steelers will have trouble running the ball, because they always have trouble running the ball.  It's kind of their thing, but at least they're persistent.  There should be some real opportunities for Roethlisberger, provided he's able to stay upright.  And, provided New York decides not to blitz too much.  According to ESPN blogger Jamison Hensley, Roethlisberger was 6 for 14 with 60 yards and an interception when the Broncos blitzed.  Hensley also points out that the Jets have blitzed on 43.4 percent of all snaps since 2009, most in league.  So, yeah, I think they're going to blitz.  It will just come down to how well the Steelers can pick those blitzes up and how badly the Jets defense breaks down on the back end without Revis if the Steelers do manage to pick up the blitz.

I know I've talked a lot about how both offenses are going to struggle and how they're going to have to do a lot of things right to score points, but I still feel like this is going to be a pretty high scoring game (take the over).  I think that there will be enough breakdowns in coverage when the defenses blitz a little too hard and enough turnovers that give the offense a short field that this won't be a 13-10 slugfest.  Plus which, those kinds of games are usually reserved for November or December.

I think the Steelers win, in a push (line is currently Steelers by 5), but take the over.  Also, these happen to be the numbers in my football pool this week, so I hope I'm predicting the right score.

Prediction:
Steelers 28, Jets 23

Stop the Mighty Ginger: Bengals at Steelers Preview

For those of you that don't read the ol' blog regularly, the Mighty Ginger is Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton.  I call him that because he's already playing pretty damn well and he looks like this.

Dalton's stats haven't been overly impressive thus far this year -- he has 16 touchdown passes, 12 interceptions, and an 81.1 quarterback rating -- but he's proven to be more than capable of leading this young team to victory.  Cincinnati is 7-4 and they're 4-2 the road.  Had AJ Green not gotten hurt in the last game between these two teams, the Bengals could be 8-3 and the Steelers could be 8-3.  However, I'm not a big fan of "what if" scenarios, because that's basically saying, "if the things that caused me to lose had not happen, I would have won."  That means Cincy is 7-4 and the Steelers are 8-3 and neither team can afford to lose ground to Baltimore, which holds a tiebreaker over both teams.

Everything that I wrote in the last preview is still true.  These are two fairly evenly matched teams.  The Bengals are no longer the Bungles.  AJ Green is a hell of a player and Ike Taylor will have his hands full on Sunday.  They have an accomplished couple of cornerbacks and a solid front seven.  Their safeties are still suspect, but taking advantage of that would require Mike Wallace to hold onto the ball.  But, really, I'm not saying he can't do that.  He had a bad game against Kansas City and I think that he will make up for that on Sunday.

The thing is that not too much has changed since the last game.  Polamalu may be limited and may not play, but LaMarr Woodley will be back, Farrior will be back, and James Harrison is healthy.  As a matter of fact, this is the healthiest this team has been all season.  They'll also have Emmanuel Sanders back, which helps the return game.

Really, this is a game that they won about three weeks ago and should win again.  The big thing they need to keep in mind is Dalton.  He's no longer just some rookie quarterback.  I'm not promoting him to the upper tier of quarterbacks in the NFL, but he's better and more dangerous in the fourth quarter than the likes of Curtis Painter, Blaine Gabbert, or even Cam Newton and Christian Ponder.  Dalton has five fourth quarter comebacks this season and was one William Gay interception away from having six.

Perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind here is that Dalton is better than Tyler Palko.  The Steelers are healthy, they're more talented than the Bengals, and they're playing at home.  They could very well jump out to another early 14-0 lead on Cincinnati.  If that happens, they need to keep their foot on the gas and put as much distance between themselves and the Bengals on the scoreboard as possible.  Dalton's not John Freakin' Elway or even Frank Reich, but he's plenty good enough to overcome a deficit on the road against a team that's trying to sit on a lead (like they did against the Chiefs and Jaguars).

If they take care of the ball, force a couple of turnovers, stay aggressive, and keep the Mighty Ginger in check, they shouldn't have any problems winning this game.  That's a lot of "ifs" but I still think they get it done.

Prediction:
Steelers 23, Bengals 17

Let's Get Real: Patriots vs. Steelers Preview

Let's just get this out there right off the bat: I don't think the Steelers are going to win this game.  I'd say I'm 99% certain that the Patriots are going to beat them and probably beat them soundly.  That remaining 1% doesn't come from logic.

Well, so, there's a bunch of reasons.  Brady's 6-1 against the Steelers for his career.  The Patriots just came off a bye and they've won eight straight (regular season) games coming off a bye.  Matchups are a huge issue because the Steelers don't have enough depth in the secondary (note that I said "depth" not "talent").  Then there's the fact that the Patriots tend to make better in-game adjustments than pretty much anyone, but especially the Steelers.

The thing is that understanding how to beat the Patriots is pretty easy.  You need to stop Tom Brady, not get intimidated, and score enough points on offense to keep up with them.  Simple, right?  Well, it's also easy to understand how to make as much money as Mark Zuckerberg, it's just incredibly difficult to come up with something like Facebook and take the right steps to make sure it takes off.  The difficulty of the task lies in the execution, which is why New England hasn't lost a lot of games in the last decade or so.

Here's what they need to do, but I doubt that they'll be able to do it.

Contain Wes Welker:


If Ike Taylor is as successful against Welker as he was against Larry Fitzgerald last week, that counts as a win.  I'm not saying he will have had a bad game if Welker gets more than four receptions for 78 yards.  I'm saying that Fitz caught four balls on ten targets last week, so he only caught a pass 40% of the time.  Welker has been targeted an average of 13 times a game thus far this season.  To make the math easy, let's say he gets targeted 15 times on Sunday.  If he finishes with six catches, that's a good sign.

Taylor has had a very good season thus far and I think he's up to the task, but he's also struggled against Welker in the past, so we shall see.

Don't Let Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski Kill You:


Part of the Steelers undoing last season was that they weren't able to handle the talented tight end duo.  They need to come out with three linemen, Woodley and Timmons, and six defensive backs, then move Troy in close like he's a linebacker.  New England varies how they line up Hernandez and Gronkowski.  Sometimes, they'll line up next to the tackles, sometimes they'll split out wide like receivers.  Woodley and Timmons need to mirror them and chuck them within five yards of the line, with Troy and the other defensive backs providing support.

Brady doesn't like pressure up the middle, so blitz Troy until it works, then back off.  Rinse, repeat.

Tackling was a major issue in last year's game and the Steelers can't afford to have the first guy miss.  The Patriots tend to isolate guys so that they just need to break one tackle and start running, which means gang tackling is not going to be an option.

Spreading the linebackers out like this will create some huge natural running lanes, but that's ultimately not an issue, because...

We Don't Need to Make Assurances as if We Were Lawyers:

Brady will see those nice, juicy running lanes and want to take advantage of it.  He'll audible to a lot of running plays, especially early.  What the Steelers need to do is not freak out when BenJarvis Green-Ellis (The Law Firm) starts getting five or six yards a carry.  What they need to remember is that BJGE getting 5.5 yards per rush is better than Brady getting ten yards per pass attempt.

New England has a tendency to try to turn everything into a shootout.  The Steelers need to brace for that and stay in the fight.

Be Efficient on Offense and Don't Panic:


At some point, Bill Belichick realized that the NFL changed the rules so drastically that it didn't make sense to try and play defense.  From there on, he focused on building a team that could score as many points as possible.  The fact that the Patriots are so prolific on offense puts pressure on the other team's defense, but it also puts a great deal of pressure on the other team's offense because they feel as though they need to keep up.

Imagine a party on a Friday night.  The New England offense is the Hot Cheerleader and the other offense is the Awkward Girl that ditched the overalls, glasses, and ponytail and decided that she wanted to be pretty.  She may be prettier than the Hot Cheerleader and she may make that girl nervous or uneasy, but the hot cheerleader is still a hot cheerleader and everyone knows it.  All she needs to do is keep being a hot cheerleader, which is like breathing.  She just needs to wait until the Awkward Girl knocks something over or reference Proust and then the Hot Cheerleader has the ball.

What the Awkward Girl needs to do is keep things together until the Hot Cheerleader has too many shots and passes out in the basement.  She can't panic, because the Hot Cheerleader can smell fear.

The Steelers can't turn the ball over and they can't try to force what isn't there.  They also can't just lean on the run and try to play keep away, since the Patriots are actually very good at defending the run and the Steelers are actually pretty bad at running the ball.

Point blank, New England's pass defense kinda sucks.  They're last in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per game.  Taking the stance that they've been in the lead all season and teams have been desperately passing the ball in an attempt to catch up isn't valid.  They've allowed 8.5 yards per attempt.  They have allowed the most completions of 20+ yards, with 37.  They just had their bye, which means they allow over six completions of 20+ yards per game.  The opportunities will be there.  The Steelers don't need to force anything, they just need to make the plays when they're open.

They need to be balanced and efficient on offense.  They can't commit dumb penalties.  They can't blow assignments.  They need to convert on third down.  They need to convert in the red zone.  They can't turn the ball over.  They need to keep rolling with the punches, stay with the Patriots, not flinch, and wait until the Hot Cheerleader passes out in the basement.

And... that's it.  That's all they need to do.  Easy, right?  Please join my social networking site so that I can become a billionaire.

Prediction:
Patriots 31, Steelers 23

Preseason Game 2 Review

I have to come clean.  I didn't watch the first preseason game.  The Arena Bowl was on (read Weidman's review, because it's awesome), then I went out of town for the rest of the weekend, then I didn't watch the recording because I read a lot about the game and figured I knew enough from that.

Also in the interest of full disclosure: I'm started this at halftime of the Steelers-Eagles game, because the second half will mostly just determine whether the third and fourth string guys for the Steelers are better than the third and fourth string guys for Philly.  In this game, at least, the first string guys for the Steelers dominated.

What I Liked:

1. Hey, so, we all know that Michael Vick had a really crappy game.  He looked lost and he forced several passes into double coverage.  The key for the Steeler defense is that they made him pay for those mistakes.  One of the biggest issues last year's unit had was that they didn't force a lot of turnovers.  Even if it was the preseason and Vick looked like he just graduated from Virginia Tech, it was still nice to see.
2. Troy sure doesn't look like he's coming back from an injury.  He was all over the place.  If it weren't for a pretty nice tackle by Vick, maybe Troy goes all the way on that interception return.  Credit for that interception should go to LaMarr Woodley, though.  Dude's supposed to be a rush linebacker, but he was 25 yards back in coverage and pivoted, jumped, and threw his arm up to tip that ball so Troy could pick it.
3. Lots of nice pressure, mostly by rushing just four guys.  The blitzes, when they came, were well timed and pretty exotic.  I didn't know Ryan Clark was allowed to blitz.  Turns out getting juked out of a sack was the best thing that could've happened on that play (led to the Polamalu interception after Vick scrambled).  Clark also did a good job of playing possum, then jumping on the ball on his interception (another throw into double coverage by Vick).
4. Defensive line should be in real good shape -- especially Casey Hampton and I'm sorry I said he'd check in at 400 pounds after the lockout -- and should be able to weather the injury when Aaron Smith goes on IR in Week 8.
5. Maybe the injuries to Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden have a silver lining.  Keenan Lewis and William Gay got a lot of reps against Philly's first team offense and they looked sharp.
6. Ben Roethlisberger has very strong hands. Mrs. Roethlisberger and a number of ladies in the Atlanta area are probably already aware of this fact, but I want to mention it.  That was a brilliant pump fake on the Antonio Brown touchdown.
7. The offense, in general, looked great.  Lots of nice holes for Mendenhall and Redman, Roethlisberger had ample time when the Eagles didn't jail break blitz, and Brown seems like he's progressing nicely.  This was against was it supposed to be a top five defense.  I know, it's only the preseason, but it was still encouraging.
8. As happy as I was when Baron Batch was drafted and as much as I wanted him to replace Mewelde Moore as the team's third down back, I have to admit that Moore looked good.  Maybe, possibly, Mendenhall or Redman or Batch would've scored on that wheel route Moore caught when Philadelphia overloaded the right side on third and short in the second quarter.  But, hey, he caught the ball and he gained a bunch of yards, setting up that second touchdown.  As bummed as I am that Batch blew out his knee and ended up on injured reserve, I'm happy that Moore seems to have found the Fountain of 2008 and looks to be back to his old tricks.
9. Arnaz Battle is still alive, which adds depth at receiver and helps the Steelers out on special teams.
10. Time of possession in the first half was almost 24 minutes to six.  With an old defense, those long drives will pay off over the balance of the season.

What I Didn't Like:

What's not to like about a first half that ends with the Steelers holding a 21-0 lead?  This is more like a list of things that concern me.

1. Why isn't Jerricho Cotchery working with the first team?  Is he hurt?  Taking a long time to learn the system?  Past his prime?  I know it takes time to learn a new system, but some dude named Tyler Grisham was working as the fourth wide receiver.  Maybe there's nothing to it, but you gotta think that Cotchery should be able to beat out some kid... unless he's got nothing left in the tank.
2. Where was Mike Wallace?  I know he was on the field.  I saw him and everything.  But, zero catches for zero yards.  I still think he's a fantastic receiver with a tremendous future ahead of him.  My only issue is that he might have a down year this year.  With all the injuries along what was already a pretty depleted offensive line, I have to assume that the Steelers aren't going to throw deep a lot in 2011.  If they don't, that takes a whole lot of targets away from Wallace.  Fewer targets means fewer opportunities means fewer catches means fewer yards means fewer touchdowns.  Right now, the Steelers seem to be running a "Clear and Sweep" offense, where they send Wallace deep, half the secondary follows him, and then they pick the defense apart with routes under 15 yards.  Judging by tonight's results, this doesn't appear to be a bad thing for the offense in general, but it's not a good leading indicator for Wallace, especially for fantasy purposes.
3. Injuries.  Jonathan Scott and Marcus Gilbert both left the game with knee problems and Redman hurt his ankle.  Given those injuries, I would think that Tomlin would want to get his first team defense off the field after a strong showing.  He didn't.  So, that concerns me.
4. Even though Gay and Lewis played well, the pass defense will suffer if Taylor and McFadden can't be back for the start of the season.
5. Man, I sure hope Shaun Suisham is OK.  I was not impressed by Swayze Waters.
6. Second Half Note: Dennis Dixon threw a lot of fluttering, helicopter passes.  Some balls had some nice zip on them.  But, I wouldn't say he's in a position to demand a trade so he can compete for a starting job or a top back-up job.

All in all, a strong follow-up to what I read was a pretty dismal effort against the Redskins.  It's too early to start designing the Super Bowl rings just yet, but tonight's game was certainly promising.