The Cincinnati Bengals are 6-2 on the season and they're in first place in the AFC North. That was weird to type. This is a team that people picked to finish anywhere between 1-15 and 4-12 before the season started. The fact that they're 6-2 and in first place has led a number of people to try to come up with reasons as to why this is possible. They've been lucky, they haven't played anyone, they're not ready to step up against elite competition.
Well, they don't make the schedule. They just play the games that are on the schedule. The one time they played against elite competition, the 49ers needed to rally late to beat them. Sure, four of their wins are against Seattle, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Tennessee, but four of the Steelers' wins are against those teams. Against elite competition, the Steelers are 1-3, with a win against the Patriots, two losses to the hated Ravens, and a loss to Houston. It could be that it's the Steelers that aren't ready for prime time.
This season has played out in a very similar manner to 2009 for Cincinnati. They're coming off a bad season. Everyone's talking about Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Everyone thinks the Steelers -- coming off a Super Bowl appearance -- will roll an overrated Bengals team that isn't ready to win this game. Well, I've learned something from the 2009 season and certainly won't be underestimating the Bengals like I did then. Actually, twice.
Cincinnati is a solid, tough team with a solid, tough defense. They're not explosive on offense, but they're efficient. Rookie Andy Dalton has been impressive thus far and is 4-1 on the road. He hasn't gotten rattled when teams have blitzed him and he isn't acting like a rookie quarterback. Dick LeBeau loves to face rookie quarterbacks and he's got an exceptionally strong track record against them, but I think that Dalton will be able to hold his own on Sunday.
Ordinarily, this would be a much bigger game for the Bengals than the Steelers. Cincinnati has been, in their eyes, disrespected. They've heard all the talk that they're overrated, they're lucky, and that they haven't beat anyone. They know that the best way to quiet all their detractors is to beat the Steelers on Sunday. They're at home, it's a division game, and they will be very intense and highly motivated. But, the Steelers suffered an emotional loss to Baltimore on Sunday night and all their guys are angry and determined. Throw in the fact that there may be more Steeler fans at the game than Bengal fans and that levels the intensity playing field.
This game will come down to who makes the plays they need to make when they need to make them. When the Steelers get in the red zone, they need to close the deal. When Cincinnati faces third down, the defense needs to get off the field. I'm past the point of thinking that the Steelers will suddenly start forcing turnovers. If they're going to end the season with seven or eight forced turnovers, then they're going to need to get off the field on third down in order to survive.
Dalton is playing beyond his years, so just blitzing the hell out of him isn't going to get the job done. The Steelers need to get pressure with four guys and vary their coverage schemes in the secondary. This is not an explosive offense, so the defenders need to play sound fundamental football. They need to wrap up on tackles, not take bad angles, and always be in position. This is an efficient offense, but it's a young offense. If the Steelers force them to plod their way down the field and play a perfect game, then someone somewhere is going to screw up. It will be a battle of wills and the Steelers can't be the first ones to flinch.
On defense, Cincinnati has a good front seven that gets consistent pressure, but isn't as ferocious or relentless as the front seven for the hated Ravens. If the pass blocking holds up and the front five play as well as they've played in recent weeks, then Ben Roethlisberger should have enough time to throw. That's important, because he's going to need to take some shots deep. Bengals cornerbacks Leon Hal and Nate Clements are both great players and they're accomplished man-to-man defenders. But, given the talent levels of Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace and the fact that the rules are set up to favor the offense, neither Clements nor Hall can cover their guys one-on-one deep. The Bengals safeties are a liability. When this pass defense has gotten beat, it's gotten beat deep. Roethlisberger's first read needs to be to the deep man and he needs to throw the ball long early and often. Cincinnati doesn't have the kind of offense that can overcome a big deficit, so a big, early lead will be the best way to take some of the wind out of the sails of the home team and the home crowd.
The Bengals are second in the league in run defense and allow a league best 3.3 yards per carry. I don't think the Steelers will be able to run on them, but they have to try and they have to run the ball efficiently. If they're purposefully one-dimensional like they were against the Patriots, then they have a chance to move the ball and score some points. If Cincinnati completely shuts the run game down and the Steelers abandon the run for the pass, it's going to be a long day for Roethlisberger. He also probably won't have time in the pocket to wait for the deep receiver to break free. That's a lethal combination right there, so they need to take steps to ensure it doesn't play out that way.
Point blank, the Steelers are a more talented team than the Bengals. They have more weapons on offense, more game changers on defense, a better quarterback, and a dangerous returner in Antonio Brown. But, games are not won and lost on talent alone. Cincinnati has been winning games because of their patience, their discipline, and their ability to make timely plays. If they keep the game tight and make more of those plays than the Steelers, they will win this game.
It's going to be a fight. It's not going to be easy. It's going to take a tremendous effort from the Steelers in all phases of the game. I think they're up for the challenge.
Prediction:
Steelers 24, Bengals 20
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