Keller's Picks, Week 10

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I am going to do something that is either vastly idiotic or incredibly brilliant.  It's probably vastly idiotic, but at least I have reasons to back my idiocy up.  I have been picking mostly favorites thus far and I've gotten crushed the last few weeks because of all the upsets.

I have identified what I believe to be some prime upset candidates and I will back them this week.  I have a nine game lead over Weidman and I've performed well in swing games thus far.  If I can take a high percentage of those games this week -- since he's been taking mostly favorites as well -- I can come that much closer to locking up the title.

If I'm wrong, then I'll know that the NFL has returned to a semi-sane point and I can go back to picking the favorites.  Well, really, if I'm wrong then I'm going back to picking the favorites because that's a higher percentage game.  But, I've thought through several scenarios, analyzed the match-ups, and done some regressions, and I feel as though the upsets I've targeted are as "sure" as they can get.

Oakland at San Diego:
Having said that, I'm not a total moron.  Philip Rivers has returned to a respectable QBERT rating and almost came back to beat the Packers last week.  Oakland will be without Darren McFadden, Carson Palmer has a QBERT rating in the teens, and they lost to freaking Denver last week.

Steelers at Cincinnati:
This is a tough match-up and it should be a close game, but I think the Steelers will pull this one out after a tough loss to the hated Ravens on Sunday night.  It's not that I don't believe in the Bengals.  God help me, I think Andy Dalton is going to be very good and AJ Green scares me.  They have a solid defense and I think they are for real.  It's just that I believe in the Steelers more.

Denver at Kansas City:
This is where I start to come off the rails.  It'll get worse, so just hang in there.  I'm not a huge fan of Football Jesus, but I have to say that he adds a certain air of unpredictability to a game.  With two teams that are difficult to handicap in a game that could go either way, you go with the wild card.  Tebow is that wild card and will end up doing something weird to either win or lose this game.  I'm betting he does something weird that gives the Broncos a W.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis:
The Colts may be an awful, awful team, but the Jags aren't much better.  Indy is at home, they're angry about all the Suck for Luck talk, their coach has come under fire, and they have a bunch of veteran leadership that will help carry them into the bye week with something positive to focus on.  Even given all that, I'm still in doubt.  That means I take the home team.

Houston at Tampa:
I'm still not sold on the Bucs, I think Arian Foster is an unstoppable death machine, and I think Josh Freeman's heroics are behind him.  They'll need a huge performance from Freeman to win this game and I don't think he has it in him.

Buffalo at Dallas:
The Cowboys have been quietly solid the last few weeks.  After years of being labeled as overrated, I think they're happy with just being rated.  I think the Bills started to believe the hype and they came into the Jets game overconfident.  They'll be focused this week, but Dallas has similar personnel to the Jets and I think DeMarcus Ware has a field day on Ryan Fitzpatrick and this spread offense.

Tennessee at Carolina:
Road teams coming off a bye have not done well this year, but home teams have been consistent.  I'm not buying the line, personally (Panthers -3.5), but I think Carolina will win.  I'm on the fence, which means I'm in doubt, which means take the home team.

Washington at Miami:
Lesser of two evils and the home team.  Let's just pretend this game isn't even happening and move on.

NOLA at Atlanta:
I'm not saying that the fact that the Falcons beat the Colts like a rented mule (hey, that actually works!) makes them a great team.  I think that, at home, playing with some confidence, and facing a very shaky defense, the Falcons can make this happen.  The pieces are starting to fall together for Atlanta and I think they're on their way up, while the Saints are on their way down.  Not "out of the playoff picture" down, just not "unstoppable juggernaut like the Packers" up.

Detroit at Chicago:
I'm gonna put two statements that are true but sound absurd back-to-back: The Lions play better at home and the Lions pass rush will be too much for the Bears.  Chicago used a lot of max protect schemes against the Eagles on Monday night and were successful, but Detroit will be able to rush four and drop seven and still get some pressure.  I think that's the difference.

St. Louis at Cleveland:
Last week, I needed a running back.  I picked up Chris Ogbonnaya.  It took me ten minutes to find him because I had a hell of a time trying to figure out how to spell his name (used OB at the start the first few times and probably also used OY).  I found him, picked him up, and he fumbled on his first play from scrimmage.  He's the best option Cleveland has at running back.  I still picked the Browns, because the Rams are that horrible.

Arizona at Philadelphia:
Hugely successful passing attack against hugely sucktastic secondary?  This one could get ugly.

Baltimore at Seattle:
I have not lost my mind.  The last time the hated Ravens won an emotional game over the Steelers, they went on the road and got destroyed by a Titans team that I just picked to lose to Carolina.  The AFC has been a mess this year.  Every week, there's a new "Team to Beat" and every week that team loses.  It's Baltimore's turn this week.

Yes, thank you.  I know this is a dumb idea.  But, if the NFL (especially the AFC) has truly been turned upside down, then this would be the best singular representation of that chaos.  Or something like that.

NY Giants at San Francisco:
I hope there is enough room on the 49ers bandwagon for me.  If not, I can easily jump off.  I don't feel great about this pick, but I'm tired of picking against San Francisco and picking wrong.  The NFC has been much more consistent this year.

New England at NY Jets:
Brady already lost at home last week, so I'm surprised the sun came up on Monday.  But, really, the Pats lose three straight?  The Jets have the right combination of guys to play man on the New England receivers and shut them down.  They're playing well enough on offense to score enough to win.  Right now, the Jets are trending up and the Patriots are trending down.

Minnesota at Green Bay:
But, there's no stopping the trend of Packers victories.  At least this week.  I'll keep picking them until they lose.  If they lose, I'll probably pick them again because Aaron Rodgers has a 100 QBERT rating and he's on my fantasy team (the good one).

Line of the Week:
Giants (+3.5) at 49ers.  Something about this game reeks of a three point victory.  That smell might just be the gash on my arm getting infected.  I cut it when I jumped on the 49ers bandwagon.

Moneyline of the Week:
Detroit (+136) at Chicago.  I picked a lot of upsets this week, but this is the one I'm most confident in.

Over/Under of the Week:
Oakland at San Diego (47.5/UNDER).  Scoring is down across the league the last few weeks (by "down" I mean 43 points per game).  These two teams have struggled at different points on both sides of the ball and they're both turnover machines.  How is it that they score more than the average this week?  I don't see it.

San Diego over Oakland
Steelers over Bengals
Denver over Kansas City
Indianapolis over Jacksonville
Houston over Tampa
Dallas over Buffalo
Carolina over Tennessee
Miami over Washington
Atlanta over NOLA
Detroit over Chicago
Cleveland over St. Louis
Philadelphia over Arizona
Seattle over Baltimore
San Francisco over NY Giants
NY Jets over New England
Green Bay over Minnesota