I have a bunch of excuses as to why this post is going up on Saturday afternoon as opposed to Thursday or Friday afternoon. The sun was in my eyes, I had a flat tire, there was a car coming, it was end of year at work, I cut my finger on Thursday night and typing sucks. But, I think it ultimately breaks down to the fact that I haven't been able to get fired up for this game.
The Steelers are playing Cleveland and Cleveland does not, in fact, rock. This used to be a rivalry game during the first Cleveland iteration, back when Andre Rison and Matt Stover played for the team, but the second coming of the Browns has been pretty disappointing. Plus which, I came into the season knowing that Cleveland was going to suck -- then again, I also though Detroit and Cincinnati were going to suck, so there's that -- so I circled this game as a potential late-season blowout or as an opportunity for the Steelers to rest their starters. I also thought the Steelers were going to sweep the season series against the hated Ravens, so there's that on top of that.
Then there's the fact that this is the last game of the season and the two teams are, once again, headed in opposite directions. I remembered Week 17 of the 2010 season, where the Steelers were crushing the Browns in the third quarter and my cousin and I decided to head off to the casino. I remembered all the times that the two teams met this century under similar circumstances and couldn't remember any of those games ending well for Cleveland. So, I did what any upstanding member of the Internet would do: I looked it up.
Thus far this century, the Steelers and Browns have faced each other four times either in Week 16 or Week 17 (three times in Week 17, one time in Week 16). All four times (2001, 2005, 2008, and 2010 seasons), the Steelers have been playing for playoff seeding and Cleveland has been playing for pride. Final scores of those games, in order: 28-7, 41-0, 31-0, 41-9. That's some history right there. And, since the Browns roster has turned over so many times in the last ten years, there are way more Steelers that have experienced that history than Browns. The Steelers own the Browns late in the season and they know it. If you play for Cleveland, the only hope for victory is that you weren't a part of that history and you can attempt to start a new chapter.
But, given the talent disparity between the two teams, I don't think that new chapter starts on Sunday. With something to play for, the Steelers will be motivated and angry. With nothing to play for but pride, Cleveland players are probably just looking to get through the season without getting hurt. The only wild card in play is the fact that the Browns players probably aren't very happy with James Harrison and they may be motivated to take some of that anger out on Ben Roethlisberger.
I don't think that Roethlisberger needs to play for the Steelers to win this game and I don't think he should play. But, my feedback and suggestions for the Steelers have largely been met with resistance and restraining orders. He has practiced all week and says that he intends to play at least 25 snaps. Since Ben generally gets what Ben wants, that means Bruce Arians should include a lot of max protect blocking schemes for when the Steelers do decide to pass. I think Cleveland is going to come after him.
More to the point, I think the Browns need to come after the Steelers on offense and defense if they want to win this game. Pat Schurmur has been extremely conservative thus far this season and that conservative approach has led to a 4-11 record. He's overmatched and outgunned and he needs to go big or go home if he wants to win this game. He needs to throw in some gadget plays on offense and throw the ball down the field. He has Seneca Wallace at his disposal and Wallace has enough arm strength to get the ball vertical and enough athletic ability -- especially when you add Josh Cribbs to the mix -- to run some trick plays and catch the Steelers defenders asleep at the switch. Schurmur has the coverage guys in the secondary to take some chances with overload blitzes. He has a lot of the tools necessary to take his best shot at the Steelers and possibly pull out a victory.
The issue is that he's had these tools all season and he hasn't used them. Does he throw the kitchen sink at the Steelers on Sunday, or does he stick with the same game plan that got him to 4-11? When you're 9-6 and fighting for playoff position, you do whatever it takes to win. When you're 4-11 and thinking about the offseason, you do whatever it takes to avoid criticism. Sure, ending the season with a win would be positive, but it would also open up questions as to why Sunday's game plan wasn't used all season.
Will Schurmur go all out or will he dance with who brung him? I think he'll dance with who brung him and that will bring his team another loss on Sunday. Steelers roll.
Prediction:
Steelers 34, Browns 6
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Weidman's Picks, Week 17
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
Alrighty - All I've got left to play for is pride and finishing strong. Basically, I'm the Browns of this Pick 'Em stupidity.
Carolina at NOLA:
Easy pick to start this out. Carolina has been a disappointment all season, and NOLA is still looking to kick some ass at home.
Buffalo at Pats:
Might as well finish my season's picks with the old tried-and-true "Don't pick against Brady, especially at home" tactic.
Chicago at Minnesota:
Usually, the pick is to take the home team in close games, but I still can't bring myself to pick the Vikings.
Jets at Miami:
Much like the above, I just can't bring myself to pick the Fish, even though they're slightly favored and at home. The Jets have had a rough time of it, but Miami just sucks.
Niners at Rams:
Another easy pick. I still won't pick the Rams until they prove themselves, and the Niners still kick ass. I'd love the Rams to beat them and end their season with a (meaningless) statement, but it's not gonna happen.
Detroit at Pack:
Pack's at home, and Detroit is still Detroit. They're going to the playoffs, and I'm sure they're glad for that. Unless the Pack slacks off to save energy for the post season, then they're going to run away with this. The thought of them slacking off is the only explanation for Vegas favoring Detroit by three and a half when they're playing a team like the Pack at home - a place they haven't lost all season.
Washington at Philly:
Neither team has anything left to play for besides pride. The Eagles need to at least end their season 50/50 so that they're not a total laughing stock (what with their Dream Team and all.) They're at home, and Washington is pathetic.
Indy at Jacksonville:
You know what? Eff it. Indy has won two in a row. I said I wouldn't pick them again until they accomplished that, and they did. I have nothing to lose in my picks, they have nothing to lose (or gain) on the season - I'm going to be bold and pick them on the road to close it out. I'm also going to buy stock on margin and back a land war in Asia. If there's a Sicilian who's willing to wager when death is on the line, I'll take the bet. Screw it.
Tennessee at Houston:
I don't know what to say - Tenn is actually favored on the road for this one. They also have something to play for when Houston doesn't. I'll play the odds and take them.
Seattle at Steelers West:
Neither team has anything to play for, both have the same records, neither is very good...Home team.
Kansas City at Denver:
Sorry KC, no matter who I pick, Denver's gonna screw me. So, I'll be safe and pick them 'cause they're at home.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta:
Not even a question - Atlanta is going to stomp TB into the ground to close this season out.
Baltimore at Bungles:
Okay, the fact is, the Ravens are favored and they know what's on the line here. But they're only favored by a point and a half, and Cincy is going to want to totally screw them. Ravens just got past the Brownies last week - I know - and the road has not been their friend this season. Also, the Ravens have been nice enough to choke for us already this season. Pretty much everything rides on this game for us and for them. Which is going to win out? Cincy's hate for the Ravens and their love for playing the upset card - or the Raven's "have to"? I really don't know. I'm picking the Bungles because I really think they can pull it off - but I'm scared that I'm doing it because I want them to.
Steelers at Browns:
See the above and cast us as the Ravens. I know - it hurt to even type that. But, as I've been saying for years, it's easy to hate the Ravens because we're such similar teams, fans and cultures in so many ways. This game is really no different. The Browns are worse than the Bungles, but they love playing the upset. Also, they almost got Baltimore last week, and we're coming into their house this week. We have to win this one to best the Ravens and the Browns know it. Wouldn't surprise me in the least that they and the Bungles are texting back and forth to plan this shit out. The difference is that I'm picking the Steelers because I know they can beat the Browns...but I'm scared that I'm doing it because I want them to.
San Diego at Oakland:
Might as well pick the Raiders one last time this season. Don't let me down, guys.
Dallas at New York Football Giants:
Pride match right here. Eli Manning is the Manning these days, and that is something. Also, Romo is...well, he's Romo and that's the best he can do. It's late season, and that's not a good time for him. Also, he's hurting bad these days. I think that the Giants are going to come up strong to end the season, and Dallas is going to come up Romo.
NOLA over Carolina
Pats over Buffalo
Chicago over Minnesota
Jets over Miami
Niners over Rams
Pack over Detroit
Philly over Washington
Indy over Jacksonville
Tennessee over Houston
Steelers West over Seattle
Denver over Kansas City
Atlanta over Tampa Bay
Bungles over Baltimore
Steelers over Browns
Oakland over San Diego
New York Football Giants over Dallas
Alrighty - All I've got left to play for is pride and finishing strong. Basically, I'm the Browns of this Pick 'Em stupidity.
Carolina at NOLA:
Easy pick to start this out. Carolina has been a disappointment all season, and NOLA is still looking to kick some ass at home.
Buffalo at Pats:
Might as well finish my season's picks with the old tried-and-true "Don't pick against Brady, especially at home" tactic.
Chicago at Minnesota:
Usually, the pick is to take the home team in close games, but I still can't bring myself to pick the Vikings.
Jets at Miami:
Much like the above, I just can't bring myself to pick the Fish, even though they're slightly favored and at home. The Jets have had a rough time of it, but Miami just sucks.
Niners at Rams:
Another easy pick. I still won't pick the Rams until they prove themselves, and the Niners still kick ass. I'd love the Rams to beat them and end their season with a (meaningless) statement, but it's not gonna happen.
Detroit at Pack:
Pack's at home, and Detroit is still Detroit. They're going to the playoffs, and I'm sure they're glad for that. Unless the Pack slacks off to save energy for the post season, then they're going to run away with this. The thought of them slacking off is the only explanation for Vegas favoring Detroit by three and a half when they're playing a team like the Pack at home - a place they haven't lost all season.
Washington at Philly:
Neither team has anything left to play for besides pride. The Eagles need to at least end their season 50/50 so that they're not a total laughing stock (what with their Dream Team and all.) They're at home, and Washington is pathetic.
Indy at Jacksonville:
You know what? Eff it. Indy has won two in a row. I said I wouldn't pick them again until they accomplished that, and they did. I have nothing to lose in my picks, they have nothing to lose (or gain) on the season - I'm going to be bold and pick them on the road to close it out. I'm also going to buy stock on margin and back a land war in Asia. If there's a Sicilian who's willing to wager when death is on the line, I'll take the bet. Screw it.
Tennessee at Houston:
I don't know what to say - Tenn is actually favored on the road for this one. They also have something to play for when Houston doesn't. I'll play the odds and take them.
Seattle at Steelers West:
Neither team has anything to play for, both have the same records, neither is very good...Home team.
Kansas City at Denver:
Sorry KC, no matter who I pick, Denver's gonna screw me. So, I'll be safe and pick them 'cause they're at home.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta:
Not even a question - Atlanta is going to stomp TB into the ground to close this season out.
Baltimore at Bungles:
Okay, the fact is, the Ravens are favored and they know what's on the line here. But they're only favored by a point and a half, and Cincy is going to want to totally screw them. Ravens just got past the Brownies last week - I know - and the road has not been their friend this season. Also, the Ravens have been nice enough to choke for us already this season. Pretty much everything rides on this game for us and for them. Which is going to win out? Cincy's hate for the Ravens and their love for playing the upset card - or the Raven's "have to"? I really don't know. I'm picking the Bungles because I really think they can pull it off - but I'm scared that I'm doing it because I want them to.
Steelers at Browns:
See the above and cast us as the Ravens. I know - it hurt to even type that. But, as I've been saying for years, it's easy to hate the Ravens because we're such similar teams, fans and cultures in so many ways. This game is really no different. The Browns are worse than the Bungles, but they love playing the upset. Also, they almost got Baltimore last week, and we're coming into their house this week. We have to win this one to best the Ravens and the Browns know it. Wouldn't surprise me in the least that they and the Bungles are texting back and forth to plan this shit out. The difference is that I'm picking the Steelers because I know they can beat the Browns...but I'm scared that I'm doing it because I want them to.
San Diego at Oakland:
Might as well pick the Raiders one last time this season. Don't let me down, guys.
Dallas at New York Football Giants:
Pride match right here. Eli Manning is the Manning these days, and that is something. Also, Romo is...well, he's Romo and that's the best he can do. It's late season, and that's not a good time for him. Also, he's hurting bad these days. I think that the Giants are going to come up strong to end the season, and Dallas is going to come up Romo.
NOLA over Carolina
Pats over Buffalo
Chicago over Minnesota
Jets over Miami
Niners over Rams
Pack over Detroit
Philly over Washington
Indy over Jacksonville
Tennessee over Houston
Steelers West over Seattle
Denver over Kansas City
Atlanta over Tampa Bay
Bungles over Baltimore
Steelers over Browns
Oakland over San Diego
New York Football Giants over Dallas
Keller's Picks, Week 17
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
Like a lot of NFL teams, I've essentially locked up my seeding at this point in the season. But, Weidman still has something to play for, which means I can't slack off. Now, there are justifiable reasons that I'm making all of these picks, but there are at least a couple where I might be picking based more on what I want to happen rather than what I think will actually happen.
Carolina at NOLA:
Drew Brees has the following QBERT split: Away: 74.3, Home 99.8. Saints are unstoppable at home (ask the Falcons) and Brees needs to defend his shiny new passing record this week so Tom Brady doesn't it steal it out from under him.
Buffalo at New England:
I'd like nothing more than for the Pats and hated Ravens to lose, the Steelers to win, and have the road to the Super Bowl come through Pittsburgh. I'd also like to have a nacho fountain in my dining room and Captain America's shield. Ain't gonna happen.
Chicago at Minnesota:
When in doubt, take the home team. Adrian Peterson is out and the Vikings have one of the worst pass defenses in history, but Matt Forte and Jay Cutler's Infuriating Face are also on injured reserve. I don't trust a McCown brother to put up big numbers, even against a pass defense as woeful as this one.
NY Jets at Miami:
I know. All home teams thus far. The Dolphins took the Pats to the brink last week in Foxborough and I just have this feeling that Rex Ryan's team is going to crap the bed. Nothing more than a feeling, but it's a strong feeling. Plus which, Miami's favored. Which is rare enough that you need to take it when it happens (not the Line of the Week, though).
San Francisco at St. Louis:
If Charlie Batch can beat the Rams by 27, then Jim Harbaugh's practice squad can beat the Rams by 10.
Detroit at Green Bay:
If the Lions still had something to play for, I'd take them. I think the Packers want to finish the season strong and they want to finish 8-0 at Lambeau Field in order to pay back all their shareholders. Since, ya know, those shareholders can't vote, they don't get dividends, and they can't sell their shares. They should at least get something, right?
Washington at Philadelphia:
More of a vote of no confidence in the Redskins than a vote of confidence in the Eagles.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville:
Now that Dan Orlovsky has a taste for victory, he will pursue it at all costs. I think the Colts are on the upswing and the Jags are just trying to limit injuries so they don't have to sit out the first couple of weeks of golf season.
Tennessee at Houston:
Titans have something to play for. Texans don't have anything to play for and TJ Yates is also showing some warts. This one is sneaky, though, since Houston is a three point dog at home.
Seattle at Arizona:
I wish I could quit the Cardinals. I really do.
Kansas City at Denver:
Now we're getting to the part where I start picking what I want to happen. I'm not in the habit of picking against Football Jesus and I don't recommend it. However, he looked absolutely awful against an average Buffalo pass defense last week. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense and I think they could win this game all by themselves on pick sixes and recovered fumbles.
Tampa at Atlanta:
Falcons are tough at home, they're angry that they lost last week, and the Bucs are just dreadful. I know Cam Newton is a good player, but 48 points? C'mon, man!
Baltimore at Cincinnati:
This is a pretty even split between "want to" and "think it will actually happen" so allow me to explain.
Steelers at Cleveland:
I think the Browns are almost as motivated to work on their short game as the Jags. Plus which, the Steelers actually have something to play for.
San Diego at Oakland:
Picking it this way because I want the winner of the AFC West -- whoever it may be -- to finish 8-8. That has been a weird division all year, the games have been tough to pick, and I want people to start screaming about how it's unfair that an 8-8 team gets a home game and an 11-5 team (hello, hated Ravens) has to play on the road. I don't agree that it's unfair, I just want whatever crappy team that wins the AFC West to have to deal with all the whining and nagging for a bit.
Dallas at NY Giants:I think Eli is starting to become a clutch quarterback and I know Romo is not. Also, Romo hurt his throwing hand in Week 16 and injuries like that tend to make it difficult to grip and throw the ball. Cowboys will need to air it out to beat the Giants and I don't think a lame Romo gets it done in December. Or January. Or whatever month it will be at that point.
Line of the Week:
Saints (-9) over Panthers. At this point, I'd need a spread of at least 14 points to pick against New Orleans at home. They're pretty well unstoppable in the Superdome this season.
Moneyline of the Week:
Cincinnati (+113) over Baltimore. I feel more confident about this pick than I do picking the Chargers, but I could just really, really want this to happen.
Over/Under of the Week:
Washington at Philadelphia (46.5, UNDER). That number just seems too high. I know the Dream Team has a lot of talent on offense, but the Redskins are good enough on defense to keep this game from getting out of control. Plus which, you're probably looking at a 34-7 Eagles victory (maybe even 34-10), which is still the Under.
NOLA over Carolina
New England over Buffalo
Minnesota over Chicago
Miami over NY Jets
San Francisco over St. Louis
Green Bay over Detroit
Philadelphia over Washington
Indianapolis over Jacksonville
Tennessee over Houston
Arizona over Seattle
Kansas City over Denver
Atlanta over Tampa
Cincinnati over Baltimore
Steelers over Cleveland
San Diego over Oakland
NY Giants over Dallas
Like a lot of NFL teams, I've essentially locked up my seeding at this point in the season. But, Weidman still has something to play for, which means I can't slack off. Now, there are justifiable reasons that I'm making all of these picks, but there are at least a couple where I might be picking based more on what I want to happen rather than what I think will actually happen.
Carolina at NOLA:
Drew Brees has the following QBERT split: Away: 74.3, Home 99.8. Saints are unstoppable at home (ask the Falcons) and Brees needs to defend his shiny new passing record this week so Tom Brady doesn't it steal it out from under him.
Buffalo at New England:
I'd like nothing more than for the Pats and hated Ravens to lose, the Steelers to win, and have the road to the Super Bowl come through Pittsburgh. I'd also like to have a nacho fountain in my dining room and Captain America's shield. Ain't gonna happen.
Chicago at Minnesota:
When in doubt, take the home team. Adrian Peterson is out and the Vikings have one of the worst pass defenses in history, but Matt Forte and Jay Cutler's Infuriating Face are also on injured reserve. I don't trust a McCown brother to put up big numbers, even against a pass defense as woeful as this one.
NY Jets at Miami:
I know. All home teams thus far. The Dolphins took the Pats to the brink last week in Foxborough and I just have this feeling that Rex Ryan's team is going to crap the bed. Nothing more than a feeling, but it's a strong feeling. Plus which, Miami's favored. Which is rare enough that you need to take it when it happens (not the Line of the Week, though).
San Francisco at St. Louis:
If Charlie Batch can beat the Rams by 27, then Jim Harbaugh's practice squad can beat the Rams by 10.
Detroit at Green Bay:
If the Lions still had something to play for, I'd take them. I think the Packers want to finish the season strong and they want to finish 8-0 at Lambeau Field in order to pay back all their shareholders. Since, ya know, those shareholders can't vote, they don't get dividends, and they can't sell their shares. They should at least get something, right?
Washington at Philadelphia:
More of a vote of no confidence in the Redskins than a vote of confidence in the Eagles.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville:
Now that Dan Orlovsky has a taste for victory, he will pursue it at all costs. I think the Colts are on the upswing and the Jags are just trying to limit injuries so they don't have to sit out the first couple of weeks of golf season.
Tennessee at Houston:
Titans have something to play for. Texans don't have anything to play for and TJ Yates is also showing some warts. This one is sneaky, though, since Houston is a three point dog at home.
Seattle at Arizona:
I wish I could quit the Cardinals. I really do.
Kansas City at Denver:
Now we're getting to the part where I start picking what I want to happen. I'm not in the habit of picking against Football Jesus and I don't recommend it. However, he looked absolutely awful against an average Buffalo pass defense last week. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense and I think they could win this game all by themselves on pick sixes and recovered fumbles.
Tampa at Atlanta:
Falcons are tough at home, they're angry that they lost last week, and the Bucs are just dreadful. I know Cam Newton is a good player, but 48 points? C'mon, man!
Baltimore at Cincinnati:
This is a pretty even split between "want to" and "think it will actually happen" so allow me to explain.
- The Bengals are fighting for their playoff lives while the hated Ravens are playing for seeding.
- Baltimore sucks on the road this year.
- They almost lost to Cleveland at home last week.
- AJ Green should be ready to go and should be motivated to prove that he deserves to go to the Pro Bowl.
- I trust in the Might Ginger.
Steelers at Cleveland:
I think the Browns are almost as motivated to work on their short game as the Jags. Plus which, the Steelers actually have something to play for.
San Diego at Oakland:
Picking it this way because I want the winner of the AFC West -- whoever it may be -- to finish 8-8. That has been a weird division all year, the games have been tough to pick, and I want people to start screaming about how it's unfair that an 8-8 team gets a home game and an 11-5 team (hello, hated Ravens) has to play on the road. I don't agree that it's unfair, I just want whatever crappy team that wins the AFC West to have to deal with all the whining and nagging for a bit.
Dallas at NY Giants:I think Eli is starting to become a clutch quarterback and I know Romo is not. Also, Romo hurt his throwing hand in Week 16 and injuries like that tend to make it difficult to grip and throw the ball. Cowboys will need to air it out to beat the Giants and I don't think a lame Romo gets it done in December. Or January. Or whatever month it will be at that point.
Line of the Week:
Saints (-9) over Panthers. At this point, I'd need a spread of at least 14 points to pick against New Orleans at home. They're pretty well unstoppable in the Superdome this season.
Moneyline of the Week:
Cincinnati (+113) over Baltimore. I feel more confident about this pick than I do picking the Chargers, but I could just really, really want this to happen.
Over/Under of the Week:
Washington at Philadelphia (46.5, UNDER). That number just seems too high. I know the Dream Team has a lot of talent on offense, but the Redskins are good enough on defense to keep this game from getting out of control. Plus which, you're probably looking at a 34-7 Eagles victory (maybe even 34-10), which is still the Under.
NOLA over Carolina
New England over Buffalo
Minnesota over Chicago
Miami over NY Jets
San Francisco over St. Louis
Green Bay over Detroit
Philadelphia over Washington
Indianapolis over Jacksonville
Tennessee over Houston
Arizona over Seattle
Kansas City over Denver
Atlanta over Tampa
Cincinnati over Baltimore
Steelers over Cleveland
San Diego over Oakland
NY Giants over Dallas
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Good News and Bad News: Rams at Steelers
I have to admit that I didn't watch the game. I was out of town, visiting family. If the game was on TV where I was (it wasn't, but even if it was), I wouldn't have been able to watch it. I was visiting with people that wouldn't understand why it was more important to me to watch the Steelers play the hapless Rams in an essentially meaningless late season game instead of spending quality time with them and I only get to see them a couple times a year and when, for the love of God, are they going to see some grand kids?
I figured it was better that I just check my phone for updates and then look at the box scores and analysis of the game afterwards.
Here's what I have for the Good News:
I figured it was better that I just check my phone for updates and then look at the box scores and analysis of the game afterwards.
Here's what I have for the Good News:
- They won and winning is better than losing. And a win's a win.
- Ben Roethlisberger didn't need to start for the Steelers to win by 27. A big reason for this was not the stellar play of Charlie Batch -- though it doesn't look like he played horribly -- but the fact that they were able to average six yards a carry against the league's worst run defense. Hey, I'll take it where I can get it.
- From what I've heard, Trai Essex did a more-than-serviceable job at center. Since Pouncey may not be back for the Cleveland game and Legursky definitely won't, that's at least comforting news.
- Also comforting is the fact that the Browns have the league's 30th ranked run defense, but I guess that's something better left to the preview for this week's game.
- According to Mike Tomlin, Woodley, Pouncey, and Sanders all have a "decent shot" of playing against Cleveland on Sunday. Even if they don't play, it's a good sign that they're getting closer (especially Woodley and Pouncey).
- Brandon Lloyd was targeted 12 times for three receptions and 29 yards. That's an ugly stat line for Lloyd, but another outstanding performance by Ike Taylor.
- I know that Kellen Clemens isn't exactly Aaron Rodgers, but the fact that he was held to 91 yards on 24 attempts -- 3.8 yards per pass attempt is pretty crazy -- is a good sign that the pass defense can be trusted. They're not going to hold Rodgers or Flacco to that kind of horrid production, but it's likely that they won't get lit up, either.
- They committed a turnover and forced zero turnovers. Since the opener against the hated Ravens, they've committed only 13 turnovers in 14 games. Take out the four against the 49ers and that's nine in 13 games, which is excellent. The issue is that they're still minus-12 in turnover differential. Maybe they're saving all their lucky bounces for the postseason? I sure hope so.
- Batch was 3-for-4 in the red zone, but he was also 1-for-7 on third down. That... that's a pretty horrific conversion rate against one of the worst defenses in the league. In theory, the conversion rate on third down will improve when Roethlisberger comes back, but I'd sure like to see it stay much closer to 50 percent while he's out.
- Tomlin said that Roethlisberger had a shot to play. That means he could be out there, slinging passes and not-quite fully healed against a team that hates him. Against a team that lost their quarterback on an illegal hit the last time these two played. I'm not saying that the Browns players will intentionally try to aggravate Roethlisberger's injury, but they're definitely not going to be pulling any punches. If Ben plays on Sunday, that's bad news.
- The hated Ravens also won. If the Steelers and hated Ravens win on Sunday, then we'll have a 12-4 wild card team and an eight or nine win team hosting them. It's good news that the Steelers will play either Denver or Oakland in the Wild Card round, but it's bad news that they honked away that game against Baltimore in November (which was partially my fault).
- Hines Ward caught four passes, but he needs five more. That's gonna be a stretch unless the starters get pulled early (probably won't happen). The Cincinnati-Baltimore game also got flexed to 4:15, so neither team will know their fate until their game is over. That means lots and lots of quick screens to Hines until he either breaks the record or the Steelers jump out to a big lead. Honestly, I think it's important to get Hines to 1,000 receptions. I think the Steelers can safely cut him with a clear conscience if they get him there. I think he deserves it for all his hard work, determination, and quality play over the last 14 seasons. I also think the Rooneys are crazy if they keep him around in 2012.
- Something about winning three road games to get to the Super Bowl makes me awfully nervous. I know it's been done in the past, but it's been not done more frequently.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Christmas Comes Early: Rams at Steelers Preview
The St. Louis Rams are an awful team. Yes, everyone in the NFL is talented and they're way better at football than me. Even the worst NFL team could still beat Alabama or LSU. I'm not saying that their players are bad players, they're just bad players by NFL standards. That's about as diplomatically as I can state that.
They went 7-9 last year, then placed 16 guys on injured reserve this season. They lost their top three cornerbacks, two starting wide receivers, and two offensive tackles. They're now 2-12. They have issues on offense, defense, and special teams. They're 25th in scoring defense and dead last in run defense. They're dead last in scoring offense and 30th in total yards. Sam Bradford and AJ Feeley are hurt and defensive end Chris Long (Howie's kid) hasn't practiced the last two days. They're thinking about next season. Steven Jackson and Brandon Lloyd are talented players, but their quarterback is still Kellen Clemens.
I'm not saying the Steelers are an unstoppable force that will maul anyone that stands in their way, but I am saying that there's no way they should lose to this Rams team. The Steelers are at home, they have something to play for (still a shot at a first round bye, technically), and they're a much more talented team that isn't struggled with the injuries St. Louis has. If Roethlisberger's ankle wasn't sprained, this would be about the healthiest the Steelers have been all season.
They're healthy, they're mad they lost on Monday night, and they have something to play for. In addition, this could be Hines Ward's last game at Heinz Field and all the guys in the locker room know that. They'll make sure he comes out a winner.
Now, the signature win for the Rams this season was their upset victory over the Saints in Week 8, when they dominated both sides of the line of scrimmage and sacked Drew Brees a kazillion times. That was with a healthy offensive line and a healthy Chris Long. That was also on artificial turf. At this point in the season, the grass turf at Heinz Field is usually a total mess and footing is dicey, at best. I don't think their linemen will be able to dig in and come after the quarterback (hopefully Dixon) like they did in Week 8 against New Orleans. Even if that happens, they would still need to score enough points on offense to win and I don't think they're capable of that.
Taking out the Saints game, here are their point totals since Week 6: 3, 7, 13, 13, 7, 20, 0, 13, 13. Sure, take out the game against the Bengals and the last three games for the Steelers are: 13, 14, and 3 and they're probably going to be playing with their third string or back-up quarterback. I get that. I do. It's just that the Rams aren't as good on defense as the Chiefs, 49ers, or even the Browns.
They can't score points and they can't keep opponents from scoring. That's why they're 2-12. The Steelers can score points and they can keep opponents from scoring (most weeks), which is why they're 10-4.
I hope Dixon plays, but I'm fine with Batch. I deconstructed Batch last year and endorsed Dixon and I still believe almost all the stuff I said then. It's just that I don't think it makes too much of a difference in whether the Steelers win or lose. If they don't play a horrible, mistake-filled game, they will win. They'll win with Dixon under center, Batch under center, or Roethlisberger under center. Given that, it doesn't make any sense (in my mind) to risk Ben exacerbating his ankle injury.
This prediction assumes that Ben Roethlisberger does not play. But, even if he does, I don't think it will have a huge effect on the score.
Prediction:
Steelers 21, Rams 10
They went 7-9 last year, then placed 16 guys on injured reserve this season. They lost their top three cornerbacks, two starting wide receivers, and two offensive tackles. They're now 2-12. They have issues on offense, defense, and special teams. They're 25th in scoring defense and dead last in run defense. They're dead last in scoring offense and 30th in total yards. Sam Bradford and AJ Feeley are hurt and defensive end Chris Long (Howie's kid) hasn't practiced the last two days. They're thinking about next season. Steven Jackson and Brandon Lloyd are talented players, but their quarterback is still Kellen Clemens.
I'm not saying the Steelers are an unstoppable force that will maul anyone that stands in their way, but I am saying that there's no way they should lose to this Rams team. The Steelers are at home, they have something to play for (still a shot at a first round bye, technically), and they're a much more talented team that isn't struggled with the injuries St. Louis has. If Roethlisberger's ankle wasn't sprained, this would be about the healthiest the Steelers have been all season.
They're healthy, they're mad they lost on Monday night, and they have something to play for. In addition, this could be Hines Ward's last game at Heinz Field and all the guys in the locker room know that. They'll make sure he comes out a winner.
Now, the signature win for the Rams this season was their upset victory over the Saints in Week 8, when they dominated both sides of the line of scrimmage and sacked Drew Brees a kazillion times. That was with a healthy offensive line and a healthy Chris Long. That was also on artificial turf. At this point in the season, the grass turf at Heinz Field is usually a total mess and footing is dicey, at best. I don't think their linemen will be able to dig in and come after the quarterback (hopefully Dixon) like they did in Week 8 against New Orleans. Even if that happens, they would still need to score enough points on offense to win and I don't think they're capable of that.
Taking out the Saints game, here are their point totals since Week 6: 3, 7, 13, 13, 7, 20, 0, 13, 13. Sure, take out the game against the Bengals and the last three games for the Steelers are: 13, 14, and 3 and they're probably going to be playing with their third string or back-up quarterback. I get that. I do. It's just that the Rams aren't as good on defense as the Chiefs, 49ers, or even the Browns.
They can't score points and they can't keep opponents from scoring. That's why they're 2-12. The Steelers can score points and they can keep opponents from scoring (most weeks), which is why they're 10-4.
I hope Dixon plays, but I'm fine with Batch. I deconstructed Batch last year and endorsed Dixon and I still believe almost all the stuff I said then. It's just that I don't think it makes too much of a difference in whether the Steelers win or lose. If they don't play a horrible, mistake-filled game, they will win. They'll win with Dixon under center, Batch under center, or Roethlisberger under center. Given that, it doesn't make any sense (in my mind) to risk Ben exacerbating his ankle injury.
This prediction assumes that Ben Roethlisberger does not play. But, even if he does, I don't think it will have a huge effect on the score.
Prediction:
Steelers 21, Rams 10
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Weidman's Picks, Week 16
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
As if I wasn't dug into a hole as it is, we're in a really crappy part of the season, picks-wise. Nothing is predictable. Teams that are locked up can slack off, great teams can get tired (or be broken as hell like the Steelers), bad teams can be underestimated (or play teams that don't give a shit any more) and so on. Pack lost last week, Colts won - it's "Any Given Sunday" with a vengeance.
Houston at Indy
This should be an easy pick, unless Indy surprises everyone again. I doubt it. Houston wins.
Oakland at Kansas City:
Really close game, and Oakland has screwed me way too many times this year. I'm taking the home team by a hair.
Jacksonville at Tennessee:
Tennessee is at home and is the much better team. They should win this one without much trouble.
Miami at Pats:
Always bet on Brady...especially when he's at home versus a lousy team. Another "easy" pick, the Pats should run away with this one.
Steelers West at Bungles:
I hate to keep picking home teams, and I really hate to pick a rival, but Cincy has played stronger than AZ all season, even if their records aren't much different. Unless AZ really mans up for an upset, they will lose this one.
Denver at Buffalo:
Buffalo started strong and I've been lamenting them ever since, what with their fall from grace. Denver has done everything they can to do the opposite.
Rams at Steelers:
This week hurt. A lot. Also, where they were beat up before, the Steelers are even more damaged now on a short week. They're still going to win.
New York Football Giants at Jets:
I hate to once a freakin' gain take a home team, but I have to. No, seriously - I have to. Stupid two teams being in the same stadium... The Jets almost always end strong, and I know that my buddy Flan is sending serious concern rays their way. That's going to swing the balance.
Minnesota at Washington:
Hey, this picking thing is easy!
Tampa at Carolina:
If there's ever a time to put a lien on your house and bet it on the Panthers, it's this week. Even the Pats are only slightly more favored in their game.
Cleveland at Baltimore:
Oh I wish, I wish, I wish I could take the Brownies in this game. I'll be rooting for them the whole time and will give precisely zero shits if I lose this pick. However, I have a better chance of winning this damned pick 'em pool that I never should have agreed to in the first place.
San Diego at Detroit:
When in doubt...
Philly at Dallas:
Dallas is going to win this by more than one point, no matter what the line is.
San Francisco at Seahawks:
The Niners utterly destroyed us this week. No one has put up more than 75 rushing yards on them all season, no one has rushed into the endzone, they're +45,000 in the turnover battle and the Seattle Seahawks...were a question on Jeopardy tonight (Only team to have the same first 3 letters as their city.) The one point favoring to San Fran is an insult to every good team they've beaten this year.
Chicago at Pack:
Green Bay fell last week, but that's inconsequential. It was like the flaw rumored to be in all Persian rugs just so they won't be perfect. They win.
Atlanta at NOLA:
NOLA still has something to fight for, and they're much better than Atlanta. I'm going to round this out with another home pick.
Houston over Indy
Kansas City over Oakland
Tennessee over Jacksonville
Pats over Miami
Bungles over Steelers West
Denver over Buffalo
Steelers over Rams
Jets over New York Football Giants
Washington over Minnesota
Carolina over Tampa
Baltimore over Cleveland
Detroit over San Diego
Dallas over Philly
San Francisco over Seahawks
Pack over Chicago
NOLA over Atlanta
As if I wasn't dug into a hole as it is, we're in a really crappy part of the season, picks-wise. Nothing is predictable. Teams that are locked up can slack off, great teams can get tired (or be broken as hell like the Steelers), bad teams can be underestimated (or play teams that don't give a shit any more) and so on. Pack lost last week, Colts won - it's "Any Given Sunday" with a vengeance.
Houston at Indy
This should be an easy pick, unless Indy surprises everyone again. I doubt it. Houston wins.
Oakland at Kansas City:
Really close game, and Oakland has screwed me way too many times this year. I'm taking the home team by a hair.
Jacksonville at Tennessee:
Tennessee is at home and is the much better team. They should win this one without much trouble.
Miami at Pats:
Always bet on Brady...especially when he's at home versus a lousy team. Another "easy" pick, the Pats should run away with this one.
Steelers West at Bungles:
I hate to keep picking home teams, and I really hate to pick a rival, but Cincy has played stronger than AZ all season, even if their records aren't much different. Unless AZ really mans up for an upset, they will lose this one.
Denver at Buffalo:
Buffalo started strong and I've been lamenting them ever since, what with their fall from grace. Denver has done everything they can to do the opposite.
Rams at Steelers:
This week hurt. A lot. Also, where they were beat up before, the Steelers are even more damaged now on a short week. They're still going to win.
New York Football Giants at Jets:
I hate to once a freakin' gain take a home team, but I have to. No, seriously - I have to. Stupid two teams being in the same stadium... The Jets almost always end strong, and I know that my buddy Flan is sending serious concern rays their way. That's going to swing the balance.
Minnesota at Washington:
Hey, this picking thing is easy!
Tampa at Carolina:
If there's ever a time to put a lien on your house and bet it on the Panthers, it's this week. Even the Pats are only slightly more favored in their game.
Cleveland at Baltimore:
Oh I wish, I wish, I wish I could take the Brownies in this game. I'll be rooting for them the whole time and will give precisely zero shits if I lose this pick. However, I have a better chance of winning this damned pick 'em pool that I never should have agreed to in the first place.
San Diego at Detroit:
When in doubt...
Philly at Dallas:
Dallas is going to win this by more than one point, no matter what the line is.
San Francisco at Seahawks:
The Niners utterly destroyed us this week. No one has put up more than 75 rushing yards on them all season, no one has rushed into the endzone, they're +45,000 in the turnover battle and the Seattle Seahawks...were a question on Jeopardy tonight (Only team to have the same first 3 letters as their city.) The one point favoring to San Fran is an insult to every good team they've beaten this year.
Chicago at Pack:
Green Bay fell last week, but that's inconsequential. It was like the flaw rumored to be in all Persian rugs just so they won't be perfect. They win.
Atlanta at NOLA:
NOLA still has something to fight for, and they're much better than Atlanta. I'm going to round this out with another home pick.
Houston over Indy
Kansas City over Oakland
Tennessee over Jacksonville
Pats over Miami
Bungles over Steelers West
Denver over Buffalo
Steelers over Rams
Jets over New York Football Giants
Washington over Minnesota
Carolina over Tampa
Baltimore over Cleveland
Detroit over San Diego
Dallas over Philly
San Francisco over Seahawks
Pack over Chicago
NOLA over Atlanta
Keller's Picks, Week 16
(Click here for current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
I'm looking to add to my lead and make it so that I could lose every game in Week 17 -- with Weidman winning every game -- and still take the season. It occurs to me that we never came up with a tiebreaking procedure.
In the event of a tie, the Championship goes to the guy that won the most individual weeks. In the event of a tie there, the Championship goes to the guy that can recite the alphabet the fastest, without singing the song.
Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 16.
Houston at Indianapolis:
The Colts may have looked frisky last week and the Texans may have looked awful, but TJ Yates just wins football games.
Oakland at Kansas City:
I think Oakland continues to implode, the Chiefs play tough at home, and Kyle Orton, strange as it may sound, still has a better QBERT rating than Carson Palmer. Also, the Raiders are a mess and the Kansas City players, for whatever reason, seem to want to rally around Romeo Crennel. Maybe they lost a bet. It surely can't be that they want him to their their coach, right? Or did everyone forget that he was the worst coach Cleveland ever had (which is saying something)?
Jacksonville at Tennessee:
The Titans gave one away last week, but they still have something to play for and they're still the home team. Also, Chris Johnson looks like he might not be dead after all and Matt Hasselbeck should be available.
Miami at New England:
Never bet against Tom Brady at home. It's good to know that you can still count on some things. Unless you can't.
Arizona at Cincinnati:
I was going to take the Bengals, but I feel as though I can't pick against those pesky Cardinals. I'm tired of picking against them and then watching them screw everything up. The Bengals are starting to wear down and the passing game isn't the same without AJ Green in the line-up. Interesting side note: John Skelton is 4-1 as a starter. If he wins his next two games, some team is going to trade a second round pick for him. It could happen. Just ask Kevin Kolb.
Denver at Buffalo:
After a brief run-in with reality last week, Football Jesus resurrects himself against the Bills. More importantly, Buffalo is a horrible team.
St. Louis at Steelers:
I don't care who plays quarterback. Mike Tomlin and the veteran leadership on this team don't let them drop this one, especially at home. St. Louis may have the worst team in the league. They're on their third quarterback and they've put 415 guys on IR; this from a team that wasn't that great to start with.
NY Giants at NY Jets:
When it doubt, take the... what's that? They play in the same stadium? The NFL schedule makers decided to make this a home game because, "Shut up, that's why"? Got it. Well, the Giants suck at home. This is about the time of year that everyone writes the Jets off and then they close the season by crushing two good teams. The Giants just happen to be the first in line.
Minnesota at Washington:
You know what? Sexy Rexy showed me something last week. The Redskins passing game is starting to find its groove. Quick stat. Whose stats are these: 110.4 rating, 69.1 completion percentage, 3,646 yards passing, 31 touchdowns, and six interceptions? Answer: Quarterbacks who have faced the Vikings this season. Their pass defense is historically awful, is what I'm saying.
Tampa at Carolina:
I hate picking the Panthers, but I can't, in good conscience, pick the Bucs. With the recent spate of coach firings, how does Raheem Morris still have a job? Does he have some compromising pictures of Malcolm Glazer or something? Maybe Glazer's focusing too much of his time on Manchester United.
Cleveland at Baltimore:
Much as I hope the hated Ravens lose, it ain't gonna happen. This is because Cleveland sucks.
San Diego at Detroit:
What do my grandparents and Philip Rivers have in common? They're both money in December. Matthew Stafford has used up all his miracles and Jesus likes Tebow more anyway.
Philadelphia at Dallas:
The Eagles finally woke up and are playing to their potential, Andy Reid is coaching for his job, and Romo + December + Garrett is an extremely beatable combination, even at home. This is my shakiest pick of the week, by the way. Call it a gut feeling.
San Francisco at Seattle:
I think the 49ers keep rolling. They're a great football team and Jim Harbaugh is so competitive that he would keep his starters in to win at Parcheesi.
Chicago at Green Bay:
Hey, I love a good upset as much as the next guy, but the Packers are too good a team to drop a game at home to a McCown brother.
Atlanta at NOLA:
Saints are 6-0 at home and they've been crushing everyone that comes to the Super Dome. I think this is a high scoring game with a lot of fantasy points in play, but NOLA ultimately prevails. Bonus Prediction: Drew Brees sets the record for passing yards in a season on Monday night.
Line of the Week:
St. Louis (+15.5) at Steelers. We don't know who the Steelers are starting at quarterback. Sure, the Rams are awful, but 16 points worse than Charlie Batch's squad? I think not. Take the points.
Moneyline of the Week:
San Diego (+120) at Detroit. Chargers are on fire, Lions aren't. Gotta go with the hot team on this one.
Over/Under of the Week:
Atlanta at New Orleans (53, OVER). I'm feeling a 35-31 barn burner on this one. Write it down. Or, ya know, bookmark this page. You heard it here first.
Houston over Indianapolis
Tennessee over Jacksonville
Kansas City over Oakland
New England over Miami
Arizona over Cincinnati
Denver over Buffalo
Steelers over St. Louis
NY Jets over NY Giants
Washington over Minnesota
Carolina over Tampa
Baltimore over Cleveland
San Diego over Detroit
Philadelphia over Dallas
San Francisco over Seattle
Green Bay over Chicago
NOLA over Atlanta
I'm looking to add to my lead and make it so that I could lose every game in Week 17 -- with Weidman winning every game -- and still take the season. It occurs to me that we never came up with a tiebreaking procedure.
In the event of a tie, the Championship goes to the guy that won the most individual weeks. In the event of a tie there, the Championship goes to the guy that can recite the alphabet the fastest, without singing the song.
Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 16.
Houston at Indianapolis:
The Colts may have looked frisky last week and the Texans may have looked awful, but TJ Yates just wins football games.
Oakland at Kansas City:
I think Oakland continues to implode, the Chiefs play tough at home, and Kyle Orton, strange as it may sound, still has a better QBERT rating than Carson Palmer. Also, the Raiders are a mess and the Kansas City players, for whatever reason, seem to want to rally around Romeo Crennel. Maybe they lost a bet. It surely can't be that they want him to their their coach, right? Or did everyone forget that he was the worst coach Cleveland ever had (which is saying something)?
Jacksonville at Tennessee:
The Titans gave one away last week, but they still have something to play for and they're still the home team. Also, Chris Johnson looks like he might not be dead after all and Matt Hasselbeck should be available.
Miami at New England:
Never bet against Tom Brady at home. It's good to know that you can still count on some things. Unless you can't.
Arizona at Cincinnati:
I was going to take the Bengals, but I feel as though I can't pick against those pesky Cardinals. I'm tired of picking against them and then watching them screw everything up. The Bengals are starting to wear down and the passing game isn't the same without AJ Green in the line-up. Interesting side note: John Skelton is 4-1 as a starter. If he wins his next two games, some team is going to trade a second round pick for him. It could happen. Just ask Kevin Kolb.
Denver at Buffalo:
After a brief run-in with reality last week, Football Jesus resurrects himself against the Bills. More importantly, Buffalo is a horrible team.
St. Louis at Steelers:
I don't care who plays quarterback. Mike Tomlin and the veteran leadership on this team don't let them drop this one, especially at home. St. Louis may have the worst team in the league. They're on their third quarterback and they've put 415 guys on IR; this from a team that wasn't that great to start with.
NY Giants at NY Jets:
When it doubt, take the... what's that? They play in the same stadium? The NFL schedule makers decided to make this a home game because, "Shut up, that's why"? Got it. Well, the Giants suck at home. This is about the time of year that everyone writes the Jets off and then they close the season by crushing two good teams. The Giants just happen to be the first in line.
Minnesota at Washington:
You know what? Sexy Rexy showed me something last week. The Redskins passing game is starting to find its groove. Quick stat. Whose stats are these: 110.4 rating, 69.1 completion percentage, 3,646 yards passing, 31 touchdowns, and six interceptions? Answer: Quarterbacks who have faced the Vikings this season. Their pass defense is historically awful, is what I'm saying.
Tampa at Carolina:
I hate picking the Panthers, but I can't, in good conscience, pick the Bucs. With the recent spate of coach firings, how does Raheem Morris still have a job? Does he have some compromising pictures of Malcolm Glazer or something? Maybe Glazer's focusing too much of his time on Manchester United.
Cleveland at Baltimore:
Much as I hope the hated Ravens lose, it ain't gonna happen. This is because Cleveland sucks.
San Diego at Detroit:
What do my grandparents and Philip Rivers have in common? They're both money in December. Matthew Stafford has used up all his miracles and Jesus likes Tebow more anyway.
Philadelphia at Dallas:
The Eagles finally woke up and are playing to their potential, Andy Reid is coaching for his job, and Romo + December + Garrett is an extremely beatable combination, even at home. This is my shakiest pick of the week, by the way. Call it a gut feeling.
San Francisco at Seattle:
I think the 49ers keep rolling. They're a great football team and Jim Harbaugh is so competitive that he would keep his starters in to win at Parcheesi.
Chicago at Green Bay:
Hey, I love a good upset as much as the next guy, but the Packers are too good a team to drop a game at home to a McCown brother.
Atlanta at NOLA:
Saints are 6-0 at home and they've been crushing everyone that comes to the Super Dome. I think this is a high scoring game with a lot of fantasy points in play, but NOLA ultimately prevails. Bonus Prediction: Drew Brees sets the record for passing yards in a season on Monday night.
Line of the Week:
St. Louis (+15.5) at Steelers. We don't know who the Steelers are starting at quarterback. Sure, the Rams are awful, but 16 points worse than Charlie Batch's squad? I think not. Take the points.
Moneyline of the Week:
San Diego (+120) at Detroit. Chargers are on fire, Lions aren't. Gotta go with the hot team on this one.
Over/Under of the Week:
Atlanta at New Orleans (53, OVER). I'm feeling a 35-31 barn burner on this one. Write it down. Or, ya know, bookmark this page. You heard it here first.
Houston over Indianapolis
Tennessee over Jacksonville
Kansas City over Oakland
New England over Miami
Arizona over Cincinnati
Denver over Buffalo
Steelers over St. Louis
NY Jets over NY Giants
Washington over Minnesota
Carolina over Tampa
Baltimore over Cleveland
San Diego over Detroit
Philadelphia over Dallas
San Francisco over Seattle
Green Bay over Chicago
NOLA over Atlanta
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Good News and Bad News: Steelers at 49ers
The hated Ravens lost and the Steelers qualified for the playoffs before they even played a snap on Monday night. There's your good news. That's the whole list.
As far as semi-good news is concerned, LaMarr Woodley didn't suffer a setback and Mewelde Moore was the only person that was seriously hurt. Ben Roethlisberger doesn't count for that list because he was already hurt.
For the bad news section, it's complicated (and probably lengthy). San Francisco came out and really kicked the Steelers butts. That's the long and the short of it. I knew they were a great team, but I had no idea they were as deep and as talented as they are. I undervalued Alex Smith. I underestimated how smart their players and coaches are. I knew they were disciplined and they worked hard, but I was not aware of the fact that an alarming number of players on that team have a very high football IQ. Having said that, they still play Marty Ball and they will still get destroyed by the Saints or Packers, provided Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are healthy.
For a semi-silver lining in the bad news, it's not like the 49ers gave other teams in the league a blueprint for how to beat the Steelers. Most folks already know how to do that, it's just incredibly difficult to do. Contain Roethlisberger, win the turnover battle, avoid costly penalties, and stop the run. But, the thing is that San Francisco completely outplayed the Steelers. "Play significantly better than the other team" is a blueprint for beating any team in the NFL, so no secrets were lost on Monday Night Football.
You could complain about the blackouts or the officiating -- honestly, I think there were some questionable calls that went in the 49ers favor -- but I don't play that game and I'm not into analyzing "what ifs" as I prefer to take a look at what happened instead of what could've maybe happened had things gone much differently than how they actually did. Maybe, if he had two good ankles, Roethlisberger hangs in for another half second for Mike Wallace to clear and he throws a touchdown instead of an interception. Maybe he's able to step up in the pocket, force the linebacker to move up, and deliver a more catchable ball to Heath Miller on the second interception. Maybe he does something to escape pressure and doesn't fumble the ball. Maybe he's focused on the clock instead of the intense, throbbing pain in his left ankle at the end of the first half and that drive ends in a field goal. If all the calls go in the Steelers favor and Ben's healthy, maybe the final score is more like 38-17 for the good guys.
But, as I see it, the 49ers probably would've won even if Roethlisberger is healthy. Given that this team is headed to the postseason, it's more than a little disconcerting that they can't seem to beat playoff teams. This season, the Steelers are 1-4 against playoff teams (beat the Patriots, lost to Houston, lost to San Francisco, and lost to the freakin' hated Ravens two freakin' times). That's no good. That would be categorized as bad news. In three of those losses -- the opener at Baltimore, at Houston, and at San Francisco -- they played like total crap on the road. So, just because they won the Super Bowl as a #6 seed before doesn't necessarily mean they'll do it again.
This team is going to the playoffs. OK? They're going to the playoffs. How they do when they get there remains to be seen. All is not lost because they blew an opportunity for pole position on the #1 seed. First of all, there's the small matter of the fact that they'd still need to beat St. Louis and Cleveland. Second of all, they had the #1 seed in 2001 and 2004 and they didn't make it to the Super Bowl. The last two Super Bowl runs, they were the #2 seed. Not getting the #1 seed doesn't destroy the season. Erratic play and Ben Roethlisberger's ankle, on the other hand, could very well destroy the season.
Really, the key issue is Roethlisberger's ankle. Erratic play is difficult to predict or control, because it's erratic. This team will go as far as Roethlisberger takes them. The Steelers aren't a Peyton Manning situation, but I can say this: This is a nine win team without #7 and I can't see them making a deep playoff run if he isn't healthy.
That means that, if you're Mike Tomlin, you have to make a decision: Either sit Roethlisberger and hope he gets better or play him and hope he can "walk it off" over the course of the next couple weeks. My preference would be for the former, but I think Tomlin will go for the latter. He's let Roethlisberger go out there the last two games when it was clear the man could barely walk. I'm not sure if that irrationality is linked to respect for Roethlisberger, a belief that Ben at 15% is better than Batch or Dixon, or the fact that Tomlin tends to side with his players on most things. Maybe it's all three.
If I was Mike Tomlin... how cool would it be to be Mike Tomlin? Do you think he wakes up every morning, goes to the mirror, and says, "Who's the head coach of one of the most popular, stable, and successful franchises in the NFL? Who's the youngest coach to win a Super Bowl? YOU ARE! Yes you are!" Or does he look in the mirror and say, "It's a process. We're going to continue to... uh... evaluate how awesome I am. It's week to week." Am I the only one that thinks about stuff like this? Yes? OK, let's move on.
My decision would be to start Dennis Dixon for the last two games of the season. I may as well ask for a pony while I'm at it, so let's just say start Charlie Batch for the first game, he gets hurt, then Dixon plays a game and three quarters. At home against the Rams and at Cleveland are extremely winnable games. I think they win those games without Roethlisberger. Maybe Baltimore honks away another road game (they're 3-4 on the road) and Ben gets another week to rest. High ankle sprains are weird. Kendrell Bell missed most of a season with one, Adrian Peterson missed two games, but then again he could be an alien. Maybe resting the injury will just make him rusty and won't help it heal enough so that he's whole again. Maybe playing through it is a better call. I don't believe that playing through it is a better call, but I've been wrong before.
Let's assume that Roethlisberger plays through the injury. This makes me very nervous. I think the Steelers can win the next two games with a 15% healthy Roethlisberger, an 85% healthy Batch (is he ever really healthy?), or Dennis Dixon. What worries me is that fact that the 49ers defenders were extraordinarily gentile with Ben on Monday night. They didn't take a shot at him, even if it was within the rules. They sacked him gently. When it became evident that the Steelers needed to pass on every down, San Francisco -- smartly and in a sportsmanlike manner -- didn't big blitz and try to tee off on Roethlisberger.
I would hope that the Rams and Browns would pay him the same courtesy, but I doubt it. I especially doubt it for the Cleveland game. It's in Cleveland, the Browns defenders are probably still mad about the Colt McCoy fiasco, and they still consider the game to be a rivalry. Both teams have nothing to lose. It's possible that the 49er defenders took it easy on Ben because they didn't want to draw a costly roughing the passer penalty. It looked like they were just being nice, but that's possible. The Rams and Browns have nothing to lose. There's a distinct possibility that they take a shot at Roethlisberger when they have a chance, or even if they don't have a chance within the rules.
I've had ankle problems and I've walked them off. I understand that it's different for me than it is for a professional athlete that needs to do all kinds of athletic things day to day. My big problem is that I think that, in one of these next two games (most likely at Cleveland), someone is going to take a serious shot at Roethlisberger that will end his season. Anything that ends his season ends the Steelers season.
And, selfishly, I would like to be able to enjoy the last two games of the season without wincing every time Roethlisberger drops back to pass or throws a pass or gets hit after he throws.
At this point, the Steelers are in the playoffs regardless. I guess we'll see what they have in store for us and Ben Roethlisberger. It's a process. We take it week-to-week.
As far as semi-good news is concerned, LaMarr Woodley didn't suffer a setback and Mewelde Moore was the only person that was seriously hurt. Ben Roethlisberger doesn't count for that list because he was already hurt.
For the bad news section, it's complicated (and probably lengthy). San Francisco came out and really kicked the Steelers butts. That's the long and the short of it. I knew they were a great team, but I had no idea they were as deep and as talented as they are. I undervalued Alex Smith. I underestimated how smart their players and coaches are. I knew they were disciplined and they worked hard, but I was not aware of the fact that an alarming number of players on that team have a very high football IQ. Having said that, they still play Marty Ball and they will still get destroyed by the Saints or Packers, provided Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are healthy.
For a semi-silver lining in the bad news, it's not like the 49ers gave other teams in the league a blueprint for how to beat the Steelers. Most folks already know how to do that, it's just incredibly difficult to do. Contain Roethlisberger, win the turnover battle, avoid costly penalties, and stop the run. But, the thing is that San Francisco completely outplayed the Steelers. "Play significantly better than the other team" is a blueprint for beating any team in the NFL, so no secrets were lost on Monday Night Football.
You could complain about the blackouts or the officiating -- honestly, I think there were some questionable calls that went in the 49ers favor -- but I don't play that game and I'm not into analyzing "what ifs" as I prefer to take a look at what happened instead of what could've maybe happened had things gone much differently than how they actually did. Maybe, if he had two good ankles, Roethlisberger hangs in for another half second for Mike Wallace to clear and he throws a touchdown instead of an interception. Maybe he's able to step up in the pocket, force the linebacker to move up, and deliver a more catchable ball to Heath Miller on the second interception. Maybe he does something to escape pressure and doesn't fumble the ball. Maybe he's focused on the clock instead of the intense, throbbing pain in his left ankle at the end of the first half and that drive ends in a field goal. If all the calls go in the Steelers favor and Ben's healthy, maybe the final score is more like 38-17 for the good guys.
But, as I see it, the 49ers probably would've won even if Roethlisberger is healthy. Given that this team is headed to the postseason, it's more than a little disconcerting that they can't seem to beat playoff teams. This season, the Steelers are 1-4 against playoff teams (beat the Patriots, lost to Houston, lost to San Francisco, and lost to the freakin' hated Ravens two freakin' times). That's no good. That would be categorized as bad news. In three of those losses -- the opener at Baltimore, at Houston, and at San Francisco -- they played like total crap on the road. So, just because they won the Super Bowl as a #6 seed before doesn't necessarily mean they'll do it again.
This team is going to the playoffs. OK? They're going to the playoffs. How they do when they get there remains to be seen. All is not lost because they blew an opportunity for pole position on the #1 seed. First of all, there's the small matter of the fact that they'd still need to beat St. Louis and Cleveland. Second of all, they had the #1 seed in 2001 and 2004 and they didn't make it to the Super Bowl. The last two Super Bowl runs, they were the #2 seed. Not getting the #1 seed doesn't destroy the season. Erratic play and Ben Roethlisberger's ankle, on the other hand, could very well destroy the season.
Really, the key issue is Roethlisberger's ankle. Erratic play is difficult to predict or control, because it's erratic. This team will go as far as Roethlisberger takes them. The Steelers aren't a Peyton Manning situation, but I can say this: This is a nine win team without #7 and I can't see them making a deep playoff run if he isn't healthy.
That means that, if you're Mike Tomlin, you have to make a decision: Either sit Roethlisberger and hope he gets better or play him and hope he can "walk it off" over the course of the next couple weeks. My preference would be for the former, but I think Tomlin will go for the latter. He's let Roethlisberger go out there the last two games when it was clear the man could barely walk. I'm not sure if that irrationality is linked to respect for Roethlisberger, a belief that Ben at 15% is better than Batch or Dixon, or the fact that Tomlin tends to side with his players on most things. Maybe it's all three.
If I was Mike Tomlin... how cool would it be to be Mike Tomlin? Do you think he wakes up every morning, goes to the mirror, and says, "Who's the head coach of one of the most popular, stable, and successful franchises in the NFL? Who's the youngest coach to win a Super Bowl? YOU ARE! Yes you are!" Or does he look in the mirror and say, "It's a process. We're going to continue to... uh... evaluate how awesome I am. It's week to week." Am I the only one that thinks about stuff like this? Yes? OK, let's move on.
My decision would be to start Dennis Dixon for the last two games of the season. I may as well ask for a pony while I'm at it, so let's just say start Charlie Batch for the first game, he gets hurt, then Dixon plays a game and three quarters. At home against the Rams and at Cleveland are extremely winnable games. I think they win those games without Roethlisberger. Maybe Baltimore honks away another road game (they're 3-4 on the road) and Ben gets another week to rest. High ankle sprains are weird. Kendrell Bell missed most of a season with one, Adrian Peterson missed two games, but then again he could be an alien. Maybe resting the injury will just make him rusty and won't help it heal enough so that he's whole again. Maybe playing through it is a better call. I don't believe that playing through it is a better call, but I've been wrong before.
Let's assume that Roethlisberger plays through the injury. This makes me very nervous. I think the Steelers can win the next two games with a 15% healthy Roethlisberger, an 85% healthy Batch (is he ever really healthy?), or Dennis Dixon. What worries me is that fact that the 49ers defenders were extraordinarily gentile with Ben on Monday night. They didn't take a shot at him, even if it was within the rules. They sacked him gently. When it became evident that the Steelers needed to pass on every down, San Francisco -- smartly and in a sportsmanlike manner -- didn't big blitz and try to tee off on Roethlisberger.
I would hope that the Rams and Browns would pay him the same courtesy, but I doubt it. I especially doubt it for the Cleveland game. It's in Cleveland, the Browns defenders are probably still mad about the Colt McCoy fiasco, and they still consider the game to be a rivalry. Both teams have nothing to lose. It's possible that the 49er defenders took it easy on Ben because they didn't want to draw a costly roughing the passer penalty. It looked like they were just being nice, but that's possible. The Rams and Browns have nothing to lose. There's a distinct possibility that they take a shot at Roethlisberger when they have a chance, or even if they don't have a chance within the rules.
I've had ankle problems and I've walked them off. I understand that it's different for me than it is for a professional athlete that needs to do all kinds of athletic things day to day. My big problem is that I think that, in one of these next two games (most likely at Cleveland), someone is going to take a serious shot at Roethlisberger that will end his season. Anything that ends his season ends the Steelers season.
And, selfishly, I would like to be able to enjoy the last two games of the season without wincing every time Roethlisberger drops back to pass or throws a pass or gets hit after he throws.
At this point, the Steelers are in the playoffs regardless. I guess we'll see what they have in store for us and Ben Roethlisberger. It's a process. We take it week-to-week.
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Marty Ball is Back: Steelers at 49ers Preview
When the schedule was released in April, I had this game marked down as a W. I thought the Monday Night scheduling committee was a bunch of idiots and that they'd be sorry they picked such a runaway blowout as their featured game of the week. I almost put the W in pen, but instead I decided to just pencil in the win. That was a good call.
Early on in the season, I wasn't sold on San Francisco. They started out 1-1 and needed a come back win to beat the Bengals (who I also thought sucked). Then they came back -- on the road, playing a 1 p.m. game on the east coast -- against the Eagles and beat the Lions in the same set of circumstances. I should note that this was back when both teams were relevant. Along the way to a 9-1 start, they crushed Tampa, soundly beat Seattle, and beat the Giants harder than the score might indicate. They only lost to the Cowboys in overtime and always seemed to make the critical play late in games. Even though they won nine of their first ten, people were discounting their impressive record because they play in the NFC West, which is the NFL's weakest division.
The thing is that the 49ers played only two division games in their first ten. Yes, they lost at Baltimore and yes, they choked at Arizona, but they're still a very good team with a legitimate 10-3 record. You may ask who have they played to get to 10-3, but you may not like the answer if you're a Steeler fan. They've beaten: Cleveland, Arizona, Seattle, Cincinnati, Tampa, Detroit, Washington, Philly, and the Giants. They lost to Dallas, Arizona, and the hated Ravens. The Steelers, at 10-3, beat a fair number of those teams and they also had the benefit of playing Jacksonville, Indy, and Tennessee, whereas the 49ers had to play the AFC North, which currently has three wining teams (plus Cleveland).
Both teams are 10-3, both teams have two non-conference wins, both teams couldn't beat the hated Ravens. Both teams are looking to run the ball, stop the run, protect the football, and hit some big plays in the passing game.
There are three distinct factors that are working in San Francisco's favor, though:
Early on in the season, I wasn't sold on San Francisco. They started out 1-1 and needed a come back win to beat the Bengals (who I also thought sucked). Then they came back -- on the road, playing a 1 p.m. game on the east coast -- against the Eagles and beat the Lions in the same set of circumstances. I should note that this was back when both teams were relevant. Along the way to a 9-1 start, they crushed Tampa, soundly beat Seattle, and beat the Giants harder than the score might indicate. They only lost to the Cowboys in overtime and always seemed to make the critical play late in games. Even though they won nine of their first ten, people were discounting their impressive record because they play in the NFC West, which is the NFL's weakest division.
The thing is that the 49ers played only two division games in their first ten. Yes, they lost at Baltimore and yes, they choked at Arizona, but they're still a very good team with a legitimate 10-3 record. You may ask who have they played to get to 10-3, but you may not like the answer if you're a Steeler fan. They've beaten: Cleveland, Arizona, Seattle, Cincinnati, Tampa, Detroit, Washington, Philly, and the Giants. They lost to Dallas, Arizona, and the hated Ravens. The Steelers, at 10-3, beat a fair number of those teams and they also had the benefit of playing Jacksonville, Indy, and Tennessee, whereas the 49ers had to play the AFC North, which currently has three wining teams (plus Cleveland).
Both teams are 10-3, both teams have two non-conference wins, both teams couldn't beat the hated Ravens. Both teams are looking to run the ball, stop the run, protect the football, and hit some big plays in the passing game.
There are three distinct factors that are working in San Francisco's favor, though:
- The 49ers are remarkably good at playing "Marty Ball" (protect the football, run the ball, play well on defense and special teams, be conservative) and they're way better at it than the Steelers are.
- Ben Roethlisberger may not play and will be limited even if he does play.
- The game is in San Francisco.
This 49ers team reminds me a lot of the Marty Schottenheimer teams of the 80s and 90s and the Cowher teams of the 90s and early 00s. They run the ball well, they stop the run, they control the clock, they play solid defense, they don't turn the ball over, and they make enough plays in the passing game to win a lot more often than they lose. Basically, they're trying to make you play their game by their rules, then make a play in the fourth quarter. They have some star power on defense, but the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. Just like with all those Cowher teams, the defense is weaker without Patrick Willis, but it is not weak. It's just like when Kirkland, Greene, Lloyd, Gildon, Woodson, Lake, Perry, Porter, and Chad Brown left. The defense was weaker at times and in spots, but it was far from weak. This season, the Steelers have been without Aaron Smith, Kiesel, Farrior, Troy, Harrison, and Woodley for long stretches, but someone else has stepped up and filled the void in the system.
San Francisco has some talent at receiver, but no one that strikes fear in defenses. If there's an issue, it's with Vernon Davis, since neither Polamalu nor Ryan Clark can cover Davis man-to-man and the defense has had problems with versatile tight ends this season (the first game against the hated Ravens and, early on last week, they made the tight end for the Browns look like a Pro Bowler). I have confidence that Ike Taylor can handle Michael Crabtree, so the real issue is Davis, at least in the passing game.
Frank Gore is the modern day equivalent of Barry Foster or Bam Morris, but he's way more talented than either of those guys. He has their toughness and strength and adds superior vision and speed. They'll look to get him involved early and often and stopping him is what the Steeler defense should focus on. The problem there is that the 49ers use a number of different personnel groupings and formations to keep run defenses off balance and to hide the direction of the play, so it will take a solid effort from everyone.
The key differentiator, what will turn the game in the Steelers favor, is Ben Roethlisberger. All those great Cowher teams had one fatal flaw: They were usually at a disadvantage when it came to the quarterback position. If Roethlisberger suits up, he's a significantly better player than Alex Smith. Think of the big games those Cowher teams lost to and think about the quarterbacks they faced. They beat a young Bledsoe, Kelly Holcomb, Elvis Grbac, Chad Pennington, Vinny Testaverde... um Jim Harbaugh, as it turns out. They lost to guys like Jim Kelly, John Elway, Steve McNair, an experienced Drew Bledsoe, and Tom Brady. The obvious exception would be Stan Humphries. I'm only going through 2004, since Cowher changed his strategy and got away from Marty Ball during the 2005 run. He also had more talent at the skill position on offense and he had Roethlisberger, who had a hell of a postseason until he got to the Super Bowl.
When the Cowher teams said, "We're going to possess the ball, play smashmouth football, and play keepaway from your fancy quarterback," the fancy quarterback usually replied, "But... I still get the ball, right? I'll get it at some point, won't I? If so, while you guys are staging six minute drives that end in punts and eight minute drives that end in field goals, I'll just go out and score touchdowns." That's how things will play out on Monday night if Roethlisberger suits up.
If he plays, the 49ers will need to get away from Marty Ball in order to win. That doesn't seem practical to me, since they've basically got their playoff seeding set and they won't want to show too many new wrinkles on film for the postseason. But, Jim Harbaugh is an extremely competitive guy. Maybe he has it in him.
If Roethlisberger doesn't play, then the Steelers are sunk. They're just not good enough without him to play this game by Marty's/Cowher's/Harbaugh's rules and win. And the 49ers are far, far too good at playing that game to lose.
So, this prediction is assuming that Roethlisberger plays, which I think he will.
Prediction:
Steelers 21, San Francisco 17
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Weidman's Picks, Week 15
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
Jimminy Christmas...my best week yet, and I still lose to Keller. Someone up there hates me. Stupid International Space Station using satellites to change games...
Jacksonville at Atlanta:
Yeah, this one's easy. Their records are almost exactly opposite, Atlanta's at home (good for any team) and 4-2 when they're there (great for them in particular.) Jacksonville has 4 wins on the season, and only one of them is on the road...against Indy. Take Atlanta by a lot.
Cowboys at Tampa:
Cowboys haven't been great on the road this season, but that doesn't stop them from being an okay team. Tampa....isn't - at home or otherwise. Take the Cowboys.
Carolina at Houston:
Once again, we have two teams with almost reverse records with the better team at home. It might seem like a cop-out, but really, at this point in the season it's a good barometer.
Washington at New York Football Giants:
I have had no faith in the Skins since their QB issues earlier this season, and their record backs that up. The Giants have been disappointing, but are still good enough to beat Washington at home.
Miami at Buffalo:
Blah. Who cares? Buffalo laid a big ol' turd this season as far as I'm concerned and Miami is still Miami. But, given the options, I guess I'll take the home team.
Seattle at Chicago:
Seattle has shown a surprising amount of heart this season, and Chicago has shown great capacity to dissapoint. It's going to be close, but take Chi-town.
NOLA at Minnesota:
Don't even need to look at the line for this one. *checks* Really? That close? I know NOLA's on the road and it's cold up there, but six points? Seriously? That's it? Pfft.
Bungles at Rams:
Bungles bungled their playoff chances last week, but they get a freebie against the Rams this week. I will not pick the Rams in any match-up until they win two in a row again. 2017's gonna be exciting when they win against the Colts.
Tennessee at Indy:
Another one where I don't need check the l- Seriously? The same line as Nola over the Vikings?
Okay, Vegas...
Pack at Kansas City:
Yes, the Pack's on the road, but as I said, I'm not picking against them until they lose - and even then, it's subject to review.
Detroit at Oakland:
This one is really close. Really, really close. Detroit has the better record and a one-point advantage...but they've been self-destructing of late. Then again, so has Oakland, but they're at home.
Pats at Denver:
I'm gonna be "safe" and not bet against Brady. Change it up a bit.
Jets at Philly:
Philly is favored and they're playing their hated Jets at home. Don't care. Dream Team has not managed to come up big much this season, and the Jets are a solid team who managed to beat the Pats at home.
Cleveland at Steelers West:
It feels nice to be able to favor Steelers West again. Not only does it make me happy that they're probably going to win, but they worsen the record of a division "rival" while they're at it.
Baltimore at San Diego:
Normally, under two point swing, I take the home team. However, the Ravens can't afford to lose any ground to us, and I don't think they're going to start this week.
Steelers at Niners
This is my most painful pick of the week. Steelers are on the road, Ben's iffy, Pouncy's iffy, Harrison's suspended. Depending on where you look, the line is even-to-slightly-favoring-the-Niners. Rule is to take the home team in this situation. If Ben plays, they might win, but he'd also be a liability. If he doesn't play, there's rumors of activating Dixon...or we're stuck with Batch. That's the clincher...so it's tough. The other thing to consider is that the Steelers are roughly 2-1 historically on Monday nights. The final addition is that, like the Ravens, they are in a must-win race. Ben plays, Steelers maybe win. He doesn't, they definitely lose. Since the assumption right now is that Ben is going to play because he has to, take the Steelers. If you can hold your pick until the weekend and things are a bit more clear, do so.
Atlanta over Jacksonville
Cowboys over Tampa
Houston over Carolina
New York Football Giants over Washington
Buffalo over Miami
Chicago over Seattle
NOLA over Minnesota
Bungles over Rams
Tennessee over Indy
Pack over Kansas City
Oakland over Detroit
Pats over Denver:
Jets over Philly
Steelers West over Cleveland
Baltimore over San Diego:
Steelers over Niners
Jimminy Christmas...my best week yet, and I still lose to Keller. Someone up there hates me. Stupid International Space Station using satellites to change games...
Jacksonville at Atlanta:
Yeah, this one's easy. Their records are almost exactly opposite, Atlanta's at home (good for any team) and 4-2 when they're there (great for them in particular.) Jacksonville has 4 wins on the season, and only one of them is on the road...against Indy. Take Atlanta by a lot.
Cowboys at Tampa:
Cowboys haven't been great on the road this season, but that doesn't stop them from being an okay team. Tampa....isn't - at home or otherwise. Take the Cowboys.
Carolina at Houston:
Once again, we have two teams with almost reverse records with the better team at home. It might seem like a cop-out, but really, at this point in the season it's a good barometer.
Washington at New York Football Giants:
I have had no faith in the Skins since their QB issues earlier this season, and their record backs that up. The Giants have been disappointing, but are still good enough to beat Washington at home.
Miami at Buffalo:
Blah. Who cares? Buffalo laid a big ol' turd this season as far as I'm concerned and Miami is still Miami. But, given the options, I guess I'll take the home team.
Seattle at Chicago:
Seattle has shown a surprising amount of heart this season, and Chicago has shown great capacity to dissapoint. It's going to be close, but take Chi-town.
NOLA at Minnesota:
Don't even need to look at the line for this one. *checks* Really? That close? I know NOLA's on the road and it's cold up there, but six points? Seriously? That's it? Pfft.
Bungles at Rams:
Bungles bungled their playoff chances last week, but they get a freebie against the Rams this week. I will not pick the Rams in any match-up until they win two in a row again. 2017's gonna be exciting when they win against the Colts.
Tennessee at Indy:
Another one where I don't need check the l- Seriously? The same line as Nola over the Vikings?
Okay, Vegas...
Pack at Kansas City:
Yes, the Pack's on the road, but as I said, I'm not picking against them until they lose - and even then, it's subject to review.
Detroit at Oakland:
This one is really close. Really, really close. Detroit has the better record and a one-point advantage...but they've been self-destructing of late. Then again, so has Oakland, but they're at home.
Pats at Denver:
I'm gonna be "safe" and not bet against Brady. Change it up a bit.
Jets at Philly:
Philly is favored and they're playing their hated Jets at home. Don't care. Dream Team has not managed to come up big much this season, and the Jets are a solid team who managed to beat the Pats at home.
Cleveland at Steelers West:
It feels nice to be able to favor Steelers West again. Not only does it make me happy that they're probably going to win, but they worsen the record of a division "rival" while they're at it.
Baltimore at San Diego:
Normally, under two point swing, I take the home team. However, the Ravens can't afford to lose any ground to us, and I don't think they're going to start this week.
Steelers at Niners
This is my most painful pick of the week. Steelers are on the road, Ben's iffy, Pouncy's iffy, Harrison's suspended. Depending on where you look, the line is even-to-slightly-favoring-the-Niners. Rule is to take the home team in this situation. If Ben plays, they might win, but he'd also be a liability. If he doesn't play, there's rumors of activating Dixon...or we're stuck with Batch. That's the clincher...so it's tough. The other thing to consider is that the Steelers are roughly 2-1 historically on Monday nights. The final addition is that, like the Ravens, they are in a must-win race. Ben plays, Steelers maybe win. He doesn't, they definitely lose. Since the assumption right now is that Ben is going to play because he has to, take the Steelers. If you can hold your pick until the weekend and things are a bit more clear, do so.
Atlanta over Jacksonville
Cowboys over Tampa
Houston over Carolina
New York Football Giants over Washington
Buffalo over Miami
Chicago over Seattle
NOLA over Minnesota
Bungles over Rams
Tennessee over Indy
Pack over Kansas City
Oakland over Detroit
Pats over Denver:
Jets over Philly
Steelers West over Cleveland
Baltimore over San Diego:
Steelers over Niners
Keller's Picks, Week 15
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
Jacksonville at Atlanta:
Atlanta is tough at home, they're still playing for something, their run defense is good enough to contain MJD, the Jags changed everything but the receptionist that answers the phone this week, and they don't have anything to play for. Um... maybe The Major Appliance puts it all together this week? I think not.
Dallas at Tampa:
I know it's Romo in December, but Tampa is awful. I don't care that they're at home. They're a mess.
Carolina at Houston:
Everyone loves TJ Yates now that he's 2-0 and has proved to be clutch, but I'm unconvinced. But, still gotta take the Texans at home given the fact that they're facing a horrid run defense and they have Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Also, I think the Houston D tries to honor Wade Philips by murdering Cam Newton.
Washington at NY Giants:
Giants stay on a roll, Redskins continue to try to convince Dan Snyder to make yet another coaching change.
Miami at Buffalo:
I picked the Dolphins last week and they let me down. Then they fired James Gandolfini. And they're on the road. Even given all that, the Bills have about 615 key guys on IR (damn you Fred Jackson!) and I think the fact that some guys for Miami are still playing for their jobs turns the tide in their favor.
Seattle at Chicago:
Wow. This... this game is gonna be hard to watch. I really have no idea who will win. My only hope is that this game is somehow blacked out. When in doubt, take the home team.
NOLA at Minnesota:
The Saints have not played great on the road, but Minnesota plays in a dome. Drew Brees loves him some sweet, sweet dome action. Plus which, the Vikings are awful.
Cincinnati at St. Louis:
You know who's more awful than the Vikings? The Rams. They're on their third string quarterback, their eighth string cornerback, and Steven Jackson is probably hoping that The Rapture comes so that this will all end and he can die dreadlocked, respected, and rich.
Tennessee at Indianapolis:
Three road teams in a row. Wow. Well, so, Indy's gotta win a game eventually, right? Right? Eh. Not on Sunday.
Green Bay at Kansas City:
That Aaron Rodgers, he's pretty good. He's got a QBERT rating that's approaching the coveted 100 mark. The Chiefs might start Ricky Stanzi, who kinda looks like Spicoli from Fast Times at Ridgemont High, but not as dynamic. The Packers are gonna win this game and Todd Haley got fired, so I'm gonna leave you with this.
Detroit at Oakland:
Need to pick a home team, I'm still off the Lions bandwagon, and the Raiders are finally getting healthy.
New England at Denver:
Never bet against Football Jesus. Wait. I got that wrong. Here's the thing: No one has come up with a way to stop the rolling Holy Hand Grenade that is Football Jesus, but he hasn't faced Bill Belichick yet and Belichick is the closest thing NFL coaching ranks have to an anti-Christ. You take the devil you know over the Football Jesus you can't quantify on the QBERT scale. Also, never bet against Tom Brady.
NY Jets at Philadelphia:
The Eagles can't stop the run, the Jets always turn it on in December, and I think Rex Ryan wants to make a statement. Philly is still favored in this game and I'm not sure why. Because they're at home? Because they beat Miami last week? I'm really not sure.
Cleveland at Arizona:
So, the Browns are on the road and they couldn't manage to beat the Steelers last week when they were facing a one-legged quarterback. Add to the mix that their quarterback may not be sure what day it is and you've got an easy pick: Steelers West.
Baltimore at San Diego:
Maybe I'm just being optimistic. But, the Chargers players really seem to want to rally to save Norv Turner's job (for reasons that I don't understand) and they usually play out of their minds in December. They're big and physical on offense and defense and they match up well against the hated Ravens. If this game were in Baltimore, I'd have to take them. I just think that the desperation for San Diego, the December mojo, and the home crowd carry the Chargers.
Steelers at San Francisco:
This is assuming Ben Roethlisberger plays. If Dennis Dixon or Charlie Batch starts, then the 49ers take this one. I think San Francisco will be fired up for this game and most of the players on this squad are not accustomed to playing on Monday night. I think that the Steelers with Roethlisberger can overcome that. The Steelers without Roethlisberger do not.
Line of the Week:
Arizona (-6.5) over Cleveland. They're at home, Cleveland sucks, and the Cardinals are kind of hitting their stride right now. If a concussed Colt McCoy strolls onto the field, Arizona wins by at least a touchdown.
Moneyline of the Week:
Jets (+130) over Eagles. I honestly don't know how Philly is favored in this game. By three points. Did Rex Ryan have some kind of leaked foot fetish video where he's sucked on Mark Sanchez's toes and that would cause a distraction? I'm stumped.
Over/Under of the Week:
Carolina at Houston (45, UNDER). I think the Texans take the air out of the ball and keep this one tight. They've been involved in low scoring games since Yates took over. Plus which, it's going to be hard for the Panthers to score a bunch of points if Cam Newton ends up murdered.
Atlanta over Jacksonville
Dallas over Tampa
Houston over Carolina
NY Giants over Washington
Miami over Buffalo
Chicago over Seattle
NOLA over Minnesota
Cincinnati over St. Louis
Tennessee over Indianapolis
Green Bay over Kansas City
Oakland over Detroit
New England over Denver
NY Jets over Philadelphia
Arizona over Cleveland
San Diego over Baltimore
Steelers over San Francisco
Jacksonville at Atlanta:
Atlanta is tough at home, they're still playing for something, their run defense is good enough to contain MJD, the Jags changed everything but the receptionist that answers the phone this week, and they don't have anything to play for. Um... maybe The Major Appliance puts it all together this week? I think not.
Dallas at Tampa:
I know it's Romo in December, but Tampa is awful. I don't care that they're at home. They're a mess.
Carolina at Houston:
Everyone loves TJ Yates now that he's 2-0 and has proved to be clutch, but I'm unconvinced. But, still gotta take the Texans at home given the fact that they're facing a horrid run defense and they have Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Also, I think the Houston D tries to honor Wade Philips by murdering Cam Newton.
Washington at NY Giants:
Giants stay on a roll, Redskins continue to try to convince Dan Snyder to make yet another coaching change.
Miami at Buffalo:
I picked the Dolphins last week and they let me down. Then they fired James Gandolfini. And they're on the road. Even given all that, the Bills have about 615 key guys on IR (damn you Fred Jackson!) and I think the fact that some guys for Miami are still playing for their jobs turns the tide in their favor.
Seattle at Chicago:
Wow. This... this game is gonna be hard to watch. I really have no idea who will win. My only hope is that this game is somehow blacked out. When in doubt, take the home team.
NOLA at Minnesota:
The Saints have not played great on the road, but Minnesota plays in a dome. Drew Brees loves him some sweet, sweet dome action. Plus which, the Vikings are awful.
Cincinnati at St. Louis:
You know who's more awful than the Vikings? The Rams. They're on their third string quarterback, their eighth string cornerback, and Steven Jackson is probably hoping that The Rapture comes so that this will all end and he can die dreadlocked, respected, and rich.
Tennessee at Indianapolis:
Three road teams in a row. Wow. Well, so, Indy's gotta win a game eventually, right? Right? Eh. Not on Sunday.
Green Bay at Kansas City:
That Aaron Rodgers, he's pretty good. He's got a QBERT rating that's approaching the coveted 100 mark. The Chiefs might start Ricky Stanzi, who kinda looks like Spicoli from Fast Times at Ridgemont High, but not as dynamic. The Packers are gonna win this game and Todd Haley got fired, so I'm gonna leave you with this.
Detroit at Oakland:
Need to pick a home team, I'm still off the Lions bandwagon, and the Raiders are finally getting healthy.
New England at Denver:
Never bet against Football Jesus. Wait. I got that wrong. Here's the thing: No one has come up with a way to stop the rolling Holy Hand Grenade that is Football Jesus, but he hasn't faced Bill Belichick yet and Belichick is the closest thing NFL coaching ranks have to an anti-Christ. You take the devil you know over the Football Jesus you can't quantify on the QBERT scale. Also, never bet against Tom Brady.
NY Jets at Philadelphia:
The Eagles can't stop the run, the Jets always turn it on in December, and I think Rex Ryan wants to make a statement. Philly is still favored in this game and I'm not sure why. Because they're at home? Because they beat Miami last week? I'm really not sure.
Cleveland at Arizona:
So, the Browns are on the road and they couldn't manage to beat the Steelers last week when they were facing a one-legged quarterback. Add to the mix that their quarterback may not be sure what day it is and you've got an easy pick: Steelers West.
Baltimore at San Diego:
Maybe I'm just being optimistic. But, the Chargers players really seem to want to rally to save Norv Turner's job (for reasons that I don't understand) and they usually play out of their minds in December. They're big and physical on offense and defense and they match up well against the hated Ravens. If this game were in Baltimore, I'd have to take them. I just think that the desperation for San Diego, the December mojo, and the home crowd carry the Chargers.
Steelers at San Francisco:
This is assuming Ben Roethlisberger plays. If Dennis Dixon or Charlie Batch starts, then the 49ers take this one. I think San Francisco will be fired up for this game and most of the players on this squad are not accustomed to playing on Monday night. I think that the Steelers with Roethlisberger can overcome that. The Steelers without Roethlisberger do not.
Line of the Week:
Arizona (-6.5) over Cleveland. They're at home, Cleveland sucks, and the Cardinals are kind of hitting their stride right now. If a concussed Colt McCoy strolls onto the field, Arizona wins by at least a touchdown.
Moneyline of the Week:
Jets (+130) over Eagles. I honestly don't know how Philly is favored in this game. By three points. Did Rex Ryan have some kind of leaked foot fetish video where he's sucked on Mark Sanchez's toes and that would cause a distraction? I'm stumped.
Over/Under of the Week:
Carolina at Houston (45, UNDER). I think the Texans take the air out of the ball and keep this one tight. They've been involved in low scoring games since Yates took over. Plus which, it's going to be hard for the Panthers to score a bunch of points if Cam Newton ends up murdered.
Atlanta over Jacksonville
Dallas over Tampa
Houston over Carolina
NY Giants over Washington
Miami over Buffalo
Chicago over Seattle
NOLA over Minnesota
Cincinnati over St. Louis
Tennessee over Indianapolis
Green Bay over Kansas City
Oakland over Detroit
New England over Denver
NY Jets over Philadelphia
Arizona over Cleveland
San Diego over Baltimore
Steelers over San Francisco
Monday, December 12, 2011
Good News and Bad News: Browns at Steelers
I gave myself a "cooling off" period on Friday before posting anything. Then the weekend happened and I ran out of time, so here we are.
It's a good thing that it took me a while to get around to this, because I successfully cooled off and we heard some news about the injuries to Pouncey and Roethlisberger. That's the big good news. Both guys say that they're in pain, but they'll fight through it. Roethlisberger is wearing a boot, but is expected to start. Pouncey says he'll be out there, but he said that about the Super Bowl. I'll believe it when I see it, but I really hope that he doesn't push himself to go out there too early. The Steelers will need him in January.
It was an ugly, stressful, frustrating game for me. However, the good news behind all that is that the Steelers won and neither Roethlisberger nor Pouncey was placed on injured reserve. A win is a win, Antonio Brown is awesome, and the defense can be trusted to put the game away provided that they're playing the Browns or Bengals. I guess we'll see what happens should the game against the 49ers come down to the wire.
Other than that, this game raised some issues that, I think, were bigger than the game itself:
It's a good thing that it took me a while to get around to this, because I successfully cooled off and we heard some news about the injuries to Pouncey and Roethlisberger. That's the big good news. Both guys say that they're in pain, but they'll fight through it. Roethlisberger is wearing a boot, but is expected to start. Pouncey says he'll be out there, but he said that about the Super Bowl. I'll believe it when I see it, but I really hope that he doesn't push himself to go out there too early. The Steelers will need him in January.
It was an ugly, stressful, frustrating game for me. However, the good news behind all that is that the Steelers won and neither Roethlisberger nor Pouncey was placed on injured reserve. A win is a win, Antonio Brown is awesome, and the defense can be trusted to put the game away provided that they're playing the Browns or Bengals. I guess we'll see what happens should the game against the 49ers come down to the wire.
Other than that, this game raised some issues that, I think, were bigger than the game itself:
- I'll say that Ben Roethlisberger is a warrior and that he turned in a gutty performance on Thursday night. His determination was the difference in that game. Having said that, Roethliberger is an idiot for going out on the field in the condition he was in and Mike Tomlin is, at best, wildly irresponsible for allowing Roethlisberger to go back in. I know the Steelers have better doctors than me, but I find it hard to believe that they can wheel Roethlisberger to the locker room, get an x-ray, analyze the x-ray, make a decision based on that x-ray, tape up the ankle, and get him back out there in 20 minutes. My guess is that he came in, got the x-ray, starting getting it taped up, heard that it wasn't broken, and declared that he was playing in the second half. At that point, Tomlin should have told him no and close the issue, but he didn't. That could be chalked up to an error in judgement and trusting his player, but I think there's a larger issue.
- The larger issue is that Charlie Batch should not be on the roster. In the last four minutes of the first half, you could tell that the Steelers were just trying to get off the field, not turn the ball over, and wait for halftime so they could re-group. That's fine. The fact that a hobbled Roethlisberger took the field in the second half says that the Steelers would trust pretty much anyone behind center over Batch. If you take away Roethlisberger's mobility, his ability to step into throws (and throw deep), and his ability to move around in the pocket, then you have to strip down the offense. At that point, you essentially have Charlie Batch: Roethlisberger without the arm, mobility, and ability to extend the play. If you have the option of an injured Roethlisberger being about as effective as a healthy Batch, why put risk further injury to Roethlisberger? Sure, you could argue that only Roethlisberger could have made that fourth quarter touchdown throw to Brown, but you could also argue that Ben just threw the ball 15 yards and Brown took it the other 64. If you don't trust Batch, what about Dennis Dixon? The league changed the rules this year so that the third quarterback doesn't need to be inactive on game days. Dixon was inactive on Thursday, but I don't think we'll see that again on Monday night, just in case Roethlisberger suffers a setback.
- I wouldn't be mad if James Harrison got suspended for his hit on Colt McCoy. I understand the arguments for being in the heat of the moment and everything happening between the whistles, but he has a history for helmet-to-helmet hits. He's been fined. The only way to teach him to approach certain situations differently is to force him to miss a game or two. From what I've been able to ascertain -- again, never met the guy, just going off of what I've read and heard -- he's a better teammate than he is a person. This is a guy that broke this eye socket, took a play off, then went back in the game because he didn't want to let his team down. I've defended Harrison in the past, but I can't defend him here. Once he realizes that his reckless style of play hurts his team, he'll tone it down. If he doesn't tone it down, he's going to hurt someone, namely himself.
- Pat Schurmur has some explaining to do. I can actually understand pushing Roethlisberger out there for the second half on some level. If he desperately wanted to take the field, he can walk with a cane when he's 60. If he had a concussion... you only get one brain. Troy and Hines had concussion-like symptoms earlier this season and they were immediately taken out of the game and not allowed back in. They had tests after the game, but they weren't allowed back in. Once they cleared those post-game tests, they were re-assessed during the week leading up to the next game. McCoy says he doesn't remember the fourth quarter of Thursday's game, which might help to explain his performance. At this point, Schurmur lost the game, may lose McCoy for the season, and probably has a letter on his desk from the league office. Add that to a 4-9 record and that's not exactly what Schurmur had hoped for when the season began.
Ultimately, they won and so did the hated Ravens and that's all that matters. They kept pace and they need to continue to do that. We'll see what happens with the balance of the season.
Thursday, December 08, 2011
TGIT: Browns at Steelers Preview
If you're reading this to see if I think the Steelers will win, I think the Steelers will win. As a matter of fact, you could also read this and this, since both Weidman and I both picked them this week.
As far as my confidence level is concerned, I have to say I'm extremely confident that the Steelers will win. I know this only servers to jinx them, but, as I see it, three pairs of severe events need to occur for the Browns to win this game:
Cleveland isn't only facing history and a tougher opponent, there are also fundamental mismatches in terms of the strengths and weaknesses of the two teams and how they approach the game.
The Browns have a solid pass defense, but their run defense is awful, allowing an average of 151 yards per game. They just gave up 290 rushing yards to Baltimore. Pittsburgh's game plan on offense is this:
Establish the run and... oh, wait. The running game isn't working. I guess we should try to pass the ball a little more, especially on first down. If that doesn't work, then go to the shotgun and/or no huddle. If we build a lead, we establish the run and grind out the clock.
Thus far this season, the pass-run differential is 60-40, which means that establishing the run hasn't worked out so well and they needed to start throwing a lot. If they're able to run the ball effectively -- which they should be able to do against a crappy run defense like Cleveland's -- then that sets up their whole offense, opens up play action, and makes the attack balanced. When they've been able to establish the run early, they've been very successful. The Browns offense has been horrendous all year, so they won't be able to outscore a balanced Steeler offense.
Unless Arians decides to change up the game plan -- it's rare, but it has happened -- things are set up so that all the Steelers need to do is play their game and they'll win.
Cleveland is averaging only 14.5 points per game and the most points they've scored in any game is 20. The only reason they've won four games -- and the reason they haven't been blown out much -- is because their defense is keeping them in games. They beat Seattle 6-3, they beat Jacksonville 14-10, they beat Miami 17-16, they hung in there against the Rams and 49ers, and the Bengals needed a comeback victory two weeks ago.
At some point, though, the defense is going to give up. Yes, they're all professionals and they all have a job to do. They're also people and people get tired of bailing out their coworkers time and time again only to watch Bob from operations try to fix the fax machine by scooping ice cream into it. Maybe they keep fighting this week because the Steelers are still a big rival for them. Maybe they finally start mailing it in in the second half. Maybe it happens next week or in Week 16, but it's going to happen. We can only hope it starts tonight.
On defense, the Steelers want to stop the run, pressure the quarterback, and keep everything in front of them. I think they'll be able to do the first two, but playing too much zone against the Browns will give them space to operate underneath. They only throw the ball underneath, so you can't give them space to operate there. Dick LeBeau has show a willingness to play more man coverage this season, starting with the game against the Patriots in Week 8 (side note: I never want to write "Patriots game" because it reminds me of the movie). If he keeps everyone in tight, McCoy doesn't have the arm strength or the weapons to beat them deep and Peyton Hillis and Chris Ooomagooma don't have the long speed to break a big run.
Now, I'm not saying that all the Steelers have to do is show up and they'll win. Showing up is only the first step, with the other step being that they need to play like they play when they play. If they stick to what has worked for them and avoid any of those catastrophic pairs, then they've got this one.
Prediction:
Steelers 27, Browns 13
As far as my confidence level is concerned, I have to say I'm extremely confident that the Steelers will win. I know this only servers to jinx them, but, as I see it, three pairs of severe events need to occur for the Browns to win this game:
- Cleveland scores a defensive touchdown AND a special teams touchdown.
- Cleveland's defense shuts the Steeler offense AND they force several turnovers, causing them to start a number of drives in Steeler territory.
- Pat Schurmur would need to show a willingness to throw the ball deep AND Colt McCoy would need to show some ability to complete deep passes.
Cleveland isn't only facing history and a tougher opponent, there are also fundamental mismatches in terms of the strengths and weaknesses of the two teams and how they approach the game.
The Browns have a solid pass defense, but their run defense is awful, allowing an average of 151 yards per game. They just gave up 290 rushing yards to Baltimore. Pittsburgh's game plan on offense is this:
Establish the run and... oh, wait. The running game isn't working. I guess we should try to pass the ball a little more, especially on first down. If that doesn't work, then go to the shotgun and/or no huddle. If we build a lead, we establish the run and grind out the clock.
Thus far this season, the pass-run differential is 60-40, which means that establishing the run hasn't worked out so well and they needed to start throwing a lot. If they're able to run the ball effectively -- which they should be able to do against a crappy run defense like Cleveland's -- then that sets up their whole offense, opens up play action, and makes the attack balanced. When they've been able to establish the run early, they've been very successful. The Browns offense has been horrendous all year, so they won't be able to outscore a balanced Steeler offense.
Unless Arians decides to change up the game plan -- it's rare, but it has happened -- things are set up so that all the Steelers need to do is play their game and they'll win.
Cleveland is averaging only 14.5 points per game and the most points they've scored in any game is 20. The only reason they've won four games -- and the reason they haven't been blown out much -- is because their defense is keeping them in games. They beat Seattle 6-3, they beat Jacksonville 14-10, they beat Miami 17-16, they hung in there against the Rams and 49ers, and the Bengals needed a comeback victory two weeks ago.
At some point, though, the defense is going to give up. Yes, they're all professionals and they all have a job to do. They're also people and people get tired of bailing out their coworkers time and time again only to watch Bob from operations try to fix the fax machine by scooping ice cream into it. Maybe they keep fighting this week because the Steelers are still a big rival for them. Maybe they finally start mailing it in in the second half. Maybe it happens next week or in Week 16, but it's going to happen. We can only hope it starts tonight.
On defense, the Steelers want to stop the run, pressure the quarterback, and keep everything in front of them. I think they'll be able to do the first two, but playing too much zone against the Browns will give them space to operate underneath. They only throw the ball underneath, so you can't give them space to operate there. Dick LeBeau has show a willingness to play more man coverage this season, starting with the game against the Patriots in Week 8 (side note: I never want to write "Patriots game" because it reminds me of the movie). If he keeps everyone in tight, McCoy doesn't have the arm strength or the weapons to beat them deep and Peyton Hillis and Chris Ooomagooma don't have the long speed to break a big run.
Now, I'm not saying that all the Steelers have to do is show up and they'll win. Showing up is only the first step, with the other step being that they need to play like they play when they play. If they stick to what has worked for them and avoid any of those catastrophic pairs, then they've got this one.
Prediction:
Steelers 27, Browns 13
Wednesday, December 07, 2011
Weidman's Picks, Week 14
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
At this point, I really need Keller to lose Internet access for the remainder of the season for me to win by sweet, sweet default. However, I'm not a quitter, and I'm playing for pride at this point, just like...
Cleveland at Steelers:
Okay, here's the deal. The Brownies are number 4 with a bullet in our division, they're practically 0-for-the-century against the Steelers at home, they're not entirely sure what 1st and 10 means....buuuuuuuuuut, they've made it their team identity to eff up other teams' seasons. We can't lose any more divisional games because of the hated Ravens, and that includes this one. I don't think there's a chance in hell the Steelers lose, but I reserve the right of "I told ya so."
Kansas City at Jets:
KC isn't a scary team, but they're not a bad team. However, the Jets are a scary, and they're at home.
Tampa Bay at Jacksonville:
This is a "pick the home team" situation. There's nothing salvageable about either team.
New England at Washington:
Finally, a road team pick. Unsurprisingly, it's 'cause it's New England matching up with Washington. Washington is on a lose-way-more-than-they-win streak, and NE is NE. Not much hope for the home team in this fight.
Atlanta at Carolina:
The line is real close on this one, with a slight edge to the Falcons. Normally in a situation like this, I'd be leaning towards the home team despite that. However, that home team is the Panthers, and I think that line is very generous towards them
Indianapolis at Baltimore:
We really, really need the Hated Ravens to lose one in the worst way. That being said, I will have no problems with this pick being wrong. Even so, the Ravens are in - if not a can't lose - a shouldn't lose situation, even without holding the tiebreaker over us. The Colts can make a statement with a win, but at this point, the only team they could win against is one in garbage time on the season.
Philly at Miami:
It takes a lot for me to take Miami, but the Eagles are there to provide that "lot" for me.
Minnesota at Detroit:
Easy pick is easy. Even with a key suspension that I'm not going to spell again this week, Detroit is more than prepared to stop the Vikings.
NOLA at Tennessee:
Saints are only two games to the better in the standings and are on the road, but I think they'll still pull this off without much trouble.
Houston at Cincinnati:
Cincy is still in the hunt, despite losing to us. They need to win this one. They're at home, which works in their favor, but the Texans are good. It's not going to be easy, but they will pull this out because they have to.
Chicago at Denver:
Records are totally matched up, and they're both pretty good teams this season. Denver has surprised me a number times this year, but Chicago has also infuriated me multiple times. I have no choice but to pick the home team.
San Francisco at Steelers West:
As stated before, Steelers West has nothing to play for, not even pride. The Niners are scary, scary good. Good enough that home field advantage has no meaning.
Buffalo at San Diego:
*sigh* I will admit that Buffalo did not perform as well as I thought they would this season. I shouldn't be too surprised, I guess. San Diego is better than their record and at home.
Oakland at Pack:
Sorry, Oakland. Nothin' but love for ya...but Aaron Rogers and his cold-weather warriors don't give a crap. Green Bay is so secure in their awesomeness that they're offering more "stock" to suckers- er...fans out there. Even though they could drop the rest of the season and be fine, I suspect that they want to get out a Sharpie and make use of a premade book cover.
New York Football Giants at Dallas:
Home field advantage takes this one. Giants are good, but I don't think they have a road win in them in Texas.
Rams at Seahawks:
The Rams are terrible at home, they're terrible on the road, they're terrible while grocery shopping...The Seahawks are merely "not great," except at home where they're "good." Take them.
Steelers over Cleveland
Jets over Kansas City
Jacksonville over Tampa Bay
New England at Washington:
Atlanta over Carolina
Baltimore over Indianapolis
Miami over Philly
Detroit over Minnesota
NOLA over Tennessee
Cincinnati over Houston
Denver over Chicago
San Francisco at Steelers West
San Diego over Buffalo
Pack over Oakland
Dallas over New York Football Giants
Seahawks over Rams
At this point, I really need Keller to lose Internet access for the remainder of the season for me to win by sweet, sweet default. However, I'm not a quitter, and I'm playing for pride at this point, just like...
Cleveland at Steelers:
Okay, here's the deal. The Brownies are number 4 with a bullet in our division, they're practically 0-for-the-century against the Steelers at home, they're not entirely sure what 1st and 10 means....buuuuuuuuuut, they've made it their team identity to eff up other teams' seasons. We can't lose any more divisional games because of the hated Ravens, and that includes this one. I don't think there's a chance in hell the Steelers lose, but I reserve the right of "I told ya so."
Kansas City at Jets:
KC isn't a scary team, but they're not a bad team. However, the Jets are a scary, and they're at home.
Tampa Bay at Jacksonville:
This is a "pick the home team" situation. There's nothing salvageable about either team.
New England at Washington:
Finally, a road team pick. Unsurprisingly, it's 'cause it's New England matching up with Washington. Washington is on a lose-way-more-than-they-win streak, and NE is NE. Not much hope for the home team in this fight.
Atlanta at Carolina:
The line is real close on this one, with a slight edge to the Falcons. Normally in a situation like this, I'd be leaning towards the home team despite that. However, that home team is the Panthers, and I think that line is very generous towards them
Indianapolis at Baltimore:
We really, really need the Hated Ravens to lose one in the worst way. That being said, I will have no problems with this pick being wrong. Even so, the Ravens are in - if not a can't lose - a shouldn't lose situation, even without holding the tiebreaker over us. The Colts can make a statement with a win, but at this point, the only team they could win against is one in garbage time on the season.
Philly at Miami:
It takes a lot for me to take Miami, but the Eagles are there to provide that "lot" for me.
Minnesota at Detroit:
Easy pick is easy. Even with a key suspension that I'm not going to spell again this week, Detroit is more than prepared to stop the Vikings.
NOLA at Tennessee:
Saints are only two games to the better in the standings and are on the road, but I think they'll still pull this off without much trouble.
Houston at Cincinnati:
Cincy is still in the hunt, despite losing to us. They need to win this one. They're at home, which works in their favor, but the Texans are good. It's not going to be easy, but they will pull this out because they have to.
Chicago at Denver:
Records are totally matched up, and they're both pretty good teams this season. Denver has surprised me a number times this year, but Chicago has also infuriated me multiple times. I have no choice but to pick the home team.
San Francisco at Steelers West:
As stated before, Steelers West has nothing to play for, not even pride. The Niners are scary, scary good. Good enough that home field advantage has no meaning.
Buffalo at San Diego:
*sigh* I will admit that Buffalo did not perform as well as I thought they would this season. I shouldn't be too surprised, I guess. San Diego is better than their record and at home.
Oakland at Pack:
Sorry, Oakland. Nothin' but love for ya...but Aaron Rogers and his cold-weather warriors don't give a crap. Green Bay is so secure in their awesomeness that they're offering more "stock" to suckers- er...fans out there. Even though they could drop the rest of the season and be fine, I suspect that they want to get out a Sharpie and make use of a premade book cover.
New York Football Giants at Dallas:
Home field advantage takes this one. Giants are good, but I don't think they have a road win in them in Texas.
Rams at Seahawks:
The Rams are terrible at home, they're terrible on the road, they're terrible while grocery shopping...The Seahawks are merely "not great," except at home where they're "good." Take them.
Steelers over Cleveland
Jets over Kansas City
Jacksonville over Tampa Bay
New England at Washington:
Atlanta over Carolina
Baltimore over Indianapolis
Miami over Philly
Detroit over Minnesota
NOLA over Tennessee
Cincinnati over Houston
Denver over Chicago
San Francisco at Steelers West
San Diego over Buffalo
Pack over Oakland
Dallas over New York Football Giants
Seahawks over Rams
Keller's Pick, Week 14
(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)
I finished last week at 12-4 overall, 3-1 in swing games, and I was 3-for-3 in line of the week, moneyline of the week, and over/under of the week. I'm on one week hot streak, which means I have to stay humble. I gotta take it one week at a time. I'm just here to help the ball club and, the Good Lord willing, things will work out.
Cleveland at Steelers:
The Browns love to play spoiler this time of year, so I'm slightly nervous heading into this one, but only slightly. Do I think it's possible that Cleveland pulls the upset? Sure, anything is possible through Jesus. However, Jesus is a little busy rooting for Tebow right now, which means the Steelers roll.
Kansas City at NY Jets:
Rex Ryan's club may be a mess right now and Mark "Dirty" Sanchez may have a QBERT rating that's hovering between 35 and 36.42 right now, but you can't take the Chiefs. You can't take a team that lost its star running back, starting quarterback, and star safety, then began the Tyler Palko Era only to have that go down in flames, only to sign Kyle Freaking Orton and hope he could spark the offense, then have Orton injury his throwing hand two snaps in. This team is cursed. As they say in the tow truck business, a wreck is something you leave behind you.
Tampa at Jacksonville:
When in doubt, take the home team. I know the Jags got blown out on Monday night, but Tampa was really, really bad before Josh Freeman got hurt. Now they've probably moved to the realm of being pitiable.
New England at Washington:
Holy crap. Look at the closing schedule for the Patriots. I think McNeese State is on there.
Atlanta at Carolina:
The Falcons lost to the immortal TJ Yates and his 18.67 QBERT rating last week and the Panthers made me pity the Bucs, but I'm still off the Carolina bandwagon. I also don't want to pick all home teams and I just have a feeling the Falcons pull this one out. They're the veteran team and this is the kind of game they're supposed to win. Let's see if they have the stones to do it.
Indianapolis at Baltimore:
I'm not picking this because the Colts are awash in a void of sucktasticocity, or because the hated Ravens have a really good team, or because they're at home, or because they don't have an epic joke job like this left in them for the rest of the season. I like crab cakes. There. I said it.
Philly at Miami:
I talked myself out of picking the Seahawks over the Eagles last week even though I had a bunch of compelling reasons for taking them. Here are my compelling reasons to take the Dolphins:
Minnesota at Detroit:
Vikings can't stop the pass, all the Lions can do is throw the ball. I think Detroit has enough of a pass rush even without Suh to get to Christian Ponder without blitzing.
NOLA at Tennessee:
The Saints have been unpredictable on the road and the Titans are a sneaky team. I just keep thinking this turns into a shootout and Tennessee doesn't have the firepower to keep up. But... if you trust the Titans enough and think that NOLA honks another winnable game on the road, the moneyline (Tennessee +171) looks might tempting.
Houston at Cincinnati:
TJ Yates did just enough to win against the Falcons at home last week, but I don't think "just enough" will be "enough enough" on the road against a solid Bengals team. Cincinnati has a tough run defense, which will slow down Arian Foster and Ben Tate enough to force Yates to win this game. Even if the Texans jump out to a lead, I trust the Mighty Ginger to come back and keep Cincy's playoff hopes alive.
Chicago at Denver:
Football Jesus versus the Stormin' Mormon! As it turns out, Caleb Hanie went to Colorado State, not BYU, he's from Dallas, and he was born on September 11th, 1985 (thanks, Wikipedia!). I have no idea whether he's a Mormon or not. I just assume everyone named Caleb is a Mormon. Even women.
At any rate, the Broncos are on a roll and at home and the Bears' offense is falling apart. It won't be easy -- what worth fighting for ever is? -- but Denver gets the win.
San Francisco at Arizona:
They get another efficient division win. San Francisco is a boring team that just wins. They will fall victim to the Shottenheimer Effect when they get to the playoffs, but I think they'll get the #2 seed.
Buffalo at San Diego:
I'm still off the Bills bandwagon and the Chargers -- especially Philip Rivers -- usually play their best in December. And they're at home. And Fred Jackson will be unavailable because he was placed on IR. Adam Schefter Tweeted that, when Jackson woke up from surgery, he immediately opened his laptop and cackled at my fantasy football line-up.
Oakland at Green Bay:
Keep taking the Packers until they lose. Mike McCarthy said today that he doesn't plan to rest Aaron Rodgers. That's bad news for any team that wants to keep Green Bay from going undefeated.
NY Giants at Dallas:
I'm not picking for the Giants as much as I'm picking against Romo in December. The guy is 7-10, but it really seems like he's 1-16. In a division game against a New York team that must be feeling like they let one get away against the Pack, I think the Boys find a way to blow this one.
St. Louis at Seattle:
I have been Romo-in-December-esque this season when it comes to handicapping the Seahawks, so this pick is probably wrong. All I know is that Seattle plays tough at home, they looked good against Philly last week, and the Rams are an awful, awful team.
Line of the Week:
San Francisco (-3.5) over Arizona. I don't see this game being close. As long as the 49ers remember not to kick the ball to Patrick Peterson, they'll win this one by at least a touchdown. They clinched their division, but they still need to keep winning to secure a bye in the postseason.
Moneyline of the Week:
Giants (+167) over Cowboys. I only picked one underdog this week. That worries me. But, the lines for the favorites were so intense that you'd almost lose money by winning it if you bet the favorite.
Over/Under of the Week:
Chiefs at Jets (36.5, UNDER). Kansas City has comfortably made the under in six of their last seven games. I think that trend continues this week, regardless of whether the Chiefs lost by two touchdowns or not. They won't score enough on offense to move past the over.
Steelers over Cleveland
NY Jets over Kansas City
Jacksonville over Tampa
New England over Washington
Atlanta over Carolina
Baltimore over Indianapolis
Miami over Philadelphia
Detroit over Minnesota
NOLA over Tennessee
Cincinnati over Houston
Denver over Chicago
San Francisco over Arizona
San Diego over Buffalo
Green Bay over Oakland
NY Giants over Dallas
Seattle over St. Louis
I finished last week at 12-4 overall, 3-1 in swing games, and I was 3-for-3 in line of the week, moneyline of the week, and over/under of the week. I'm on one week hot streak, which means I have to stay humble. I gotta take it one week at a time. I'm just here to help the ball club and, the Good Lord willing, things will work out.
Cleveland at Steelers:
The Browns love to play spoiler this time of year, so I'm slightly nervous heading into this one, but only slightly. Do I think it's possible that Cleveland pulls the upset? Sure, anything is possible through Jesus. However, Jesus is a little busy rooting for Tebow right now, which means the Steelers roll.
Kansas City at NY Jets:
Rex Ryan's club may be a mess right now and Mark "Dirty" Sanchez may have a QBERT rating that's hovering between 35 and 36.42 right now, but you can't take the Chiefs. You can't take a team that lost its star running back, starting quarterback, and star safety, then began the Tyler Palko Era only to have that go down in flames, only to sign Kyle Freaking Orton and hope he could spark the offense, then have Orton injury his throwing hand two snaps in. This team is cursed. As they say in the tow truck business, a wreck is something you leave behind you.
Tampa at Jacksonville:
When in doubt, take the home team. I know the Jags got blown out on Monday night, but Tampa was really, really bad before Josh Freeman got hurt. Now they've probably moved to the realm of being pitiable.
New England at Washington:
Holy crap. Look at the closing schedule for the Patriots. I think McNeese State is on there.
Atlanta at Carolina:
The Falcons lost to the immortal TJ Yates and his 18.67 QBERT rating last week and the Panthers made me pity the Bucs, but I'm still off the Carolina bandwagon. I also don't want to pick all home teams and I just have a feeling the Falcons pull this one out. They're the veteran team and this is the kind of game they're supposed to win. Let's see if they have the stones to do it.
Indianapolis at Baltimore:
I'm not picking this because the Colts are awash in a void of sucktasticocity, or because the hated Ravens have a really good team, or because they're at home, or because they don't have an epic joke job like this left in them for the rest of the season. I like crab cakes. There. I said it.
Philly at Miami:
I talked myself out of picking the Seahawks over the Eagles last week even though I had a bunch of compelling reasons for taking them. Here are my compelling reasons to take the Dolphins:
- They're playing considerably better of late, especially at home. Last week, they crushed a very good Raiders team.
- I think Miami head coach James Gandolfini wants to keep his job very badly and the players want him to stick around. As a result, they'll keep playing strong down the stretch, finish 8-8 or 7-9, and everyone will be talking about them in the offseason as a "sleeper" team because they came on strong late in the year and won seven of their last nine. At that point, everyone will forget that they lost seven of their first seven. My point is this: The Eagles are trending down and the Dolphins are trending up.
- Michael Vick always has a bad game his first start back after an injury. You can tell he's playing at 75% in an attempt to not get re-injured.
Minnesota at Detroit:
Vikings can't stop the pass, all the Lions can do is throw the ball. I think Detroit has enough of a pass rush even without Suh to get to Christian Ponder without blitzing.
NOLA at Tennessee:
The Saints have been unpredictable on the road and the Titans are a sneaky team. I just keep thinking this turns into a shootout and Tennessee doesn't have the firepower to keep up. But... if you trust the Titans enough and think that NOLA honks another winnable game on the road, the moneyline (Tennessee +171) looks might tempting.
Houston at Cincinnati:
TJ Yates did just enough to win against the Falcons at home last week, but I don't think "just enough" will be "enough enough" on the road against a solid Bengals team. Cincinnati has a tough run defense, which will slow down Arian Foster and Ben Tate enough to force Yates to win this game. Even if the Texans jump out to a lead, I trust the Mighty Ginger to come back and keep Cincy's playoff hopes alive.
Chicago at Denver:
Football Jesus versus the Stormin' Mormon! As it turns out, Caleb Hanie went to Colorado State, not BYU, he's from Dallas, and he was born on September 11th, 1985 (thanks, Wikipedia!). I have no idea whether he's a Mormon or not. I just assume everyone named Caleb is a Mormon. Even women.
At any rate, the Broncos are on a roll and at home and the Bears' offense is falling apart. It won't be easy -- what worth fighting for ever is? -- but Denver gets the win.
San Francisco at Arizona:
They get another efficient division win. San Francisco is a boring team that just wins. They will fall victim to the Shottenheimer Effect when they get to the playoffs, but I think they'll get the #2 seed.
Buffalo at San Diego:
I'm still off the Bills bandwagon and the Chargers -- especially Philip Rivers -- usually play their best in December. And they're at home. And Fred Jackson will be unavailable because he was placed on IR. Adam Schefter Tweeted that, when Jackson woke up from surgery, he immediately opened his laptop and cackled at my fantasy football line-up.
Oakland at Green Bay:
Keep taking the Packers until they lose. Mike McCarthy said today that he doesn't plan to rest Aaron Rodgers. That's bad news for any team that wants to keep Green Bay from going undefeated.
NY Giants at Dallas:
I'm not picking for the Giants as much as I'm picking against Romo in December. The guy is 7-10, but it really seems like he's 1-16. In a division game against a New York team that must be feeling like they let one get away against the Pack, I think the Boys find a way to blow this one.
St. Louis at Seattle:
I have been Romo-in-December-esque this season when it comes to handicapping the Seahawks, so this pick is probably wrong. All I know is that Seattle plays tough at home, they looked good against Philly last week, and the Rams are an awful, awful team.
Line of the Week:
San Francisco (-3.5) over Arizona. I don't see this game being close. As long as the 49ers remember not to kick the ball to Patrick Peterson, they'll win this one by at least a touchdown. They clinched their division, but they still need to keep winning to secure a bye in the postseason.
Moneyline of the Week:
Giants (+167) over Cowboys. I only picked one underdog this week. That worries me. But, the lines for the favorites were so intense that you'd almost lose money by winning it if you bet the favorite.
Over/Under of the Week:
Chiefs at Jets (36.5, UNDER). Kansas City has comfortably made the under in six of their last seven games. I think that trend continues this week, regardless of whether the Chiefs lost by two touchdowns or not. They won't score enough on offense to move past the over.
Steelers over Cleveland
NY Jets over Kansas City
Jacksonville over Tampa
New England over Washington
Atlanta over Carolina
Baltimore over Indianapolis
Miami over Philadelphia
Detroit over Minnesota
NOLA over Tennessee
Cincinnati over Houston
Denver over Chicago
San Francisco over Arizona
San Diego over Buffalo
Green Bay over Oakland
NY Giants over Dallas
Seattle over St. Louis
Monday, December 05, 2011
Good News and Bad News: Bengals at Steelers
The best news is that they won and kept pace with the hated Ravens in terms of record (Baltimore holds the tiebreaker since they swept the regular season series). It's better that they won 35-7 instead of 13-9 or 17-13, but a win is still a win.
Good news first:
The Steelers made an important announcement to the rest of the AFC yesterday: We're back and the Bengals aren't ready. We'll see how everything shakes out, but, as of right now, the Steelers are the five seed that no one wants to play.
Good news first:
- AJ Green did have six catches for 87 yards and a touchdown, but 43 of those yards came on one play. He was also targeted 11 times and Ike Taylor picked off one of those targets, so I'm going to declare this one a victory for number 24. He's continuing a strong season and the Steelers will need him to keep it up if they want to make some noise in January.
- Special teams contributed a forced fumble, a blocked kick, and a punt return for a touchdown. The kicking game had been under-performing for the past few seasons and it's nice to see the Steelers play well in all three phases. When the playoffs start and the games get tighter, having an advantage on special teams gives you a huge edge. It was also good to see Cameron Heyward contributing in a meaningful way, even if he's not starting. Curtis Brown had a big day with three special teams tackles and he was all over the place in coverage units. Kampinos averaged 54.5 yards per punt, showed good hang time, and dropped two punts inside the 20.
- The Mighty Ginger was held to 5.6 yards per pass attempt and completed 45.8 percent of his passes. Bruce Gradkowski threw the interception to Taylor, but, for a guy that has been as hot on the road as Dalton, I will take 135 yards passing and 77.6 passer rating.
- On four trips in the red zone, the Steelers got four touchdowns. That's huge. Also huge is that Rashard Mendenhall looked comfortable close to the goal line and Tomlin looked comfortable getting him the ball.
- Antonio Brown is awesome. He led the team with 67 receiving yards and kicked in another 65 and a touchdown on three punt returns. Now that Emmanuel Sanders is healthy, expect him to return kickoffs and Brown to return punts. That is a winning combination.
- Hines Ward went over 12,000 yards for his career. I'd like to congratulate him on a hell of a run.
- LaMarr Woodley leaving in the second quarter was all part of the plan. With a Thursday night game coming up and Jason Worilds allegedly rushing the passer well, they didn't feel a need to rush him back and exacerbate his hamstring injury. Troy played and played well without incident.
- James Harrison stepped up when the Bengals lost their left tackle. He had three sacks and three hits on the quarterback. The Steelers had an aggressive game plan this week after laying off Dalton in the first game. It sure worked. If they come after Colt McCoy like that on Thursday night, things could get ugly for the Browns.
- I still can't believe how well Max Starks is playing. I guess being forced to take some time off and losing some weight made a big difference. I just hope he stays healthy the rest of the season. Jonathan Scott is definitely not an acceptable substitute. I thought the line played well in general. I would've liked to have seen fewer sacks and a more efficient running game, but this was really an A-level game for this unit when you factor in the talent Cincinnati has on the front seven.
- New England, Baltimore, and Houston all won, which means the Steelers, at 9-3, would be the #5 seed if the season ended today. Hated Ravens and Texans hold a tiebreaker, so the only way to improve seeding is to keep winning and hope someone else loses, preferably both Baltimore and Houston, since the Steelers have a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Patriots.
- Todd Suisham missed a field goal. Jeff Reed is still available.
- The Steelers scored 35 points, but were still 2-for-10 on third down. That's not sustainable.
- Ben Roethlisberger averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, didn't turn the ball over, and had a 117.3 quarterback rating, but it really seemed to me that this was his second straight ugly game. He was off on deep throws, his timing on short and intermediate routes wasn't quite right, and his receivers gained a lot of yards for him after the catch. I'm not sure if it's the thumb or the coverages he's been facing, but he just seems... off. I know. Anyone whose quarterback is Tyler Palko or Caleb Hanie or TJ Yates really hates me right about now. I'll shut up.
- I am happy for Hines Ward. I really am. What bugs me is that they're feeding him the ball when they don't have to. He needs ten catches to get to 1,000 for his career. Just let it happen. Let it look like he earned it. Maybe look for him on third down more often and you'll convert more of those opportunities. He'll get to 1,000 without trying to fudge it. If you want to throw a quick screen to a receiver, Sanders, Brown, and Mike Wallace are all considerably better options.
- Speaking of weird passes, I'm glad that Roethlisberger came out of the game and Charlie Batch went in. I'm glad that Batch saw the Bengals jump offsides, knew he had a free play, and just chucked it down the field. I'm not glad that Brown was in the game and got nailed on the play because Batch can only chuck the ball so far. If you're going to leave players open to injury on those kinds of plays, make sure it's Batch throwing to Cotchery or Battle.
The Steelers made an important announcement to the rest of the AFC yesterday: We're back and the Bengals aren't ready. We'll see how everything shakes out, but, as of right now, the Steelers are the five seed that no one wants to play.
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