Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Weidman's Picks, Week 15

(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)

Jimminy best week yet, and I still lose to Keller. Someone up there hates me. Stupid International Space Station using satellites to change games...

Jacksonville at Atlanta:
Yeah, this one's easy. Their records are almost exactly opposite, Atlanta's at home (good for any team) and 4-2 when they're there (great for them in particular.) Jacksonville has 4 wins on the season, and only one of them is on the road...against Indy. Take Atlanta by a lot.

Cowboys at Tampa:
Cowboys haven't been great on the road this season, but that doesn't stop them from being an okay team. Tampa....isn't - at home or otherwise. Take the Cowboys.

Carolina at Houston:
Once again, we have two teams with almost reverse records with the better team at home. It might seem like a cop-out, but really, at this point in the season it's a good barometer.

Washington at New York Football Giants:
I have had no faith in the Skins since their QB issues earlier this season, and their record backs that up. The Giants have been disappointing, but are still good enough to beat Washington at home.

Miami at Buffalo:
Blah. Who cares? Buffalo laid a big ol' turd this season as far as I'm concerned and Miami is still Miami. But, given the options, I guess I'll take the home team.

Seattle at Chicago:
Seattle has shown a surprising amount of heart this season, and Chicago has shown great capacity to dissapoint. It's going to be close, but take Chi-town.

NOLA at Minnesota:
Don't even need to look at the line for this one. *checks* Really? That close? I know NOLA's on the road and it's cold up there, but six points? Seriously? That's it? Pfft.

Bungles at Rams:
Bungles bungled their playoff chances last week, but they get a freebie against the Rams this week. I will not pick the Rams in any match-up until they win two in a row again. 2017's gonna be exciting when they win against the Colts.

Tennessee at Indy:
Another one where I don't need check the l- Seriously? The same line as Nola over the Vikings?
Okay, Vegas...

Pack at Kansas City:
Yes, the Pack's on the road, but as I said, I'm not picking against them until they lose - and even then, it's subject to review.

Detroit at Oakland:
This one is really close. Really, really close. Detroit has the better record and a one-point advantage...but they've been self-destructing of late. Then again, so has Oakland, but they're at home.

Pats at Denver:
I'm gonna be "safe" and not bet against Brady. Change it up a bit.

Jets at Philly:
Philly is favored and they're playing their hated Jets at home. Don't care. Dream Team has not managed to come up big much this season, and the Jets are a solid team who managed to beat the Pats at home.

Cleveland at Steelers West:
It feels nice to be able to favor Steelers West again. Not only does it make me happy that they're probably going to win, but they worsen the record of a division "rival" while they're at it.

Baltimore at San Diego:
Normally, under two point swing, I take the home team. However, the Ravens can't afford to lose any ground to us, and I don't think they're going to start this week.

Steelers at Niners
This is my most painful pick of the week. Steelers are on the road, Ben's iffy, Pouncy's iffy, Harrison's suspended. Depending on where you look, the line is even-to-slightly-favoring-the-Niners. Rule is to take the home team in this situation. If Ben plays, they might win, but he'd also be a liability. If he doesn't play, there's rumors of activating Dixon...or we're stuck with Batch. That's the it's tough. The other thing to consider is that the Steelers are roughly 2-1 historically on Monday nights. The final addition is that, like the Ravens, they are in a must-win race. Ben plays, Steelers maybe win. He doesn't, they definitely lose. Since the assumption right now is that Ben is going to play because he has to, take the Steelers. If you can hold your pick until the weekend and things are a bit more clear, do so.

Atlanta over Jacksonville
Cowboys over Tampa
Houston over Carolina
New York Football Giants over Washington
Buffalo over Miami
Chicago over Seattle
NOLA over Minnesota
Bungles over Rams
Tennessee over Indy
Pack over Kansas City
Oakland over Detroit
Pats over Denver:
Jets over Philly
Steelers West over Cleveland
Baltimore over San Diego:
Steelers over Niners

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