Marty Ball is Back: Steelers at 49ers Preview

When the schedule was released in April, I had this game marked down as a W.  I thought the Monday Night scheduling committee was a bunch of idiots and that they'd be sorry they picked such a runaway blowout as their featured game of the week.  I almost put the W in pen, but instead I decided to just pencil in the win.  That was a good call.

Early on in the season, I wasn't sold on San Francisco.  They started out 1-1 and needed a come back win to beat the Bengals (who I also thought sucked).  Then they came back -- on the road, playing a 1 p.m. game on the east coast -- against the Eagles and beat the Lions in the same set of circumstances.  I should note that this was back when both teams were relevant.  Along the way to a 9-1 start, they crushed Tampa, soundly beat Seattle, and beat the Giants harder than the score might indicate.  They only lost to the Cowboys in overtime and always seemed to make the critical play late in games.  Even though they won nine of their first ten, people were discounting their impressive record because they play in the NFC West, which is the NFL's weakest division.

The thing is that the 49ers played only two division games in their first ten.  Yes, they lost at Baltimore and yes, they choked at Arizona, but they're still a very good team with a legitimate 10-3 record.  You may ask who have they played to get to 10-3, but you may not like the answer if you're a Steeler fan.  They've beaten: Cleveland, Arizona, Seattle, Cincinnati, Tampa, Detroit, Washington, Philly, and the Giants.  They lost to Dallas, Arizona, and the hated Ravens.  The Steelers, at 10-3,  beat a fair number of those teams and they also had the benefit of playing Jacksonville, Indy, and Tennessee, whereas the 49ers had to play the AFC North, which currently has three wining teams (plus Cleveland).

Both teams are 10-3, both teams have two non-conference wins, both teams couldn't beat the hated Ravens.  Both teams are looking to run the ball, stop the run, protect the football, and hit some big plays in the passing game.

There are three distinct factors that are working in San Francisco's favor, though:

1. The 49ers are remarkably good at playing "Marty Ball" (protect the football, run the ball, play well on defense and special teams, be conservative) and they're way better at it than the Steelers are.
2. Ben Roethlisberger may not play and will be limited even if he does play.
3. The game is in San Francisco.

This 49ers team reminds me a lot of the Marty Schottenheimer teams of the 80s and 90s and the Cowher teams of the 90s and early 00s.  They run the ball well, they stop the run, they control the clock, they play solid defense, they don't turn the ball over, and they make enough plays in the passing game to win a lot more often than they lose.  Basically, they're trying to make you play their game by their rules, then make a play in the fourth quarter.  They have some star power on defense, but the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. Just like with all those Cowher teams, the defense is weaker without Patrick Willis, but it is not weak.  It's just like when Kirkland, Greene, Lloyd, Gildon, Woodson, Lake, Perry, Porter, and Chad Brown left.  The defense was weaker at times and in spots, but it was far from weak.  This season, the Steelers have been without Aaron Smith, Kiesel, Farrior, Troy, Harrison, and Woodley for long stretches, but someone else has stepped up and filled the void in the system.

San Francisco has some talent at receiver, but no one that strikes fear in defenses.  If there's an issue, it's with Vernon Davis, since neither Polamalu nor Ryan Clark can cover Davis man-to-man and the defense has had problems with versatile tight ends this season (the first game against the hated Ravens and, early on last week, they made the tight end for the Browns look like a Pro Bowler).  I have confidence that Ike Taylor can handle Michael Crabtree, so the real issue is Davis, at least in the passing game.

Frank Gore is the modern day equivalent of Barry Foster or Bam Morris, but he's way more talented than either of those guys.  He has their toughness and strength and adds superior vision and speed.  They'll look to get him involved early and often and stopping him is what the Steeler defense should focus on.  The problem there is that the 49ers use a number of different personnel groupings and formations to keep run defenses off balance and to hide the direction of the play, so it will take a solid effort from everyone.

The key differentiator, what will turn the game in the Steelers favor, is Ben Roethlisberger.  All those great Cowher teams had one fatal flaw: They were usually at a disadvantage when it came to the quarterback position.  If Roethlisberger suits up, he's a significantly better player than Alex Smith.  Think of the big games those Cowher teams lost to and think about the quarterbacks they faced.  They beat a young Bledsoe, Kelly Holcomb, Elvis Grbac, Chad Pennington, Vinny Testaverde... um Jim Harbaugh, as it turns out.  They lost to guys like Jim Kelly, John Elway, Steve McNair, an experienced Drew Bledsoe, and Tom Brady.  The obvious exception would be Stan Humphries.  I'm only going through 2004, since Cowher changed his strategy and got away from Marty Ball during the 2005 run.  He also had more talent at the skill position on offense and he had Roethlisberger, who had a hell of a postseason until he got to the Super Bowl.

When the Cowher teams said, "We're going to possess the ball, play smashmouth football, and play keepaway from your fancy quarterback," the fancy quarterback usually replied, "But... I still get the ball, right?  I'll get it at some point, won't I?  If so, while you guys are staging six minute drives that end in punts and eight minute drives that end in field goals, I'll just go out and score touchdowns."  That's how things will play out on Monday night if Roethlisberger suits up.

If he plays, the 49ers will need to get away from Marty Ball in order to win.  That doesn't seem practical to me, since they've basically got their playoff seeding set and they won't want to show too many new wrinkles on film for the postseason.  But, Jim Harbaugh is an extremely competitive guy.  Maybe he has it in him.

If Roethlisberger doesn't play, then the Steelers are sunk.  They're just not good enough without him to play this game by Marty's/Cowher's/Harbaugh's rules and win.  And the 49ers are far, far too good at playing that game to lose.

So, this prediction is assuming that Roethlisberger plays, which I think he will.

Prediction:

Steelers 21, San Francisco 17