I finished last week at 12-4 overall, 3-1 in swing games, and I was 3-for-3 in line of the week, moneyline of the week, and over/under of the week. I'm on one week hot streak, which means I have to stay humble. I gotta take it one week at a time. I'm just here to help the ball club and, the Good Lord willing, things will work out.
Cleveland at Steelers:
The Browns love to play spoiler this time of year, so I'm slightly nervous heading into this one, but only slightly. Do I think it's possible that Cleveland pulls the upset? Sure, anything is possible through Jesus. However, Jesus is a little busy rooting for Tebow right now, which means the Steelers roll.
Kansas City at NY Jets:
Rex Ryan's club may be a mess right now and Mark "Dirty" Sanchez may have a QBERT rating that's hovering between 35 and 36.42 right now, but you can't take the Chiefs. You can't take a team that lost its star running back, starting quarterback, and star safety, then began the Tyler Palko Era only to have that go down in flames, only to sign Kyle Freaking Orton and hope he could spark the offense, then have Orton injury his throwing hand two snaps in. This team is cursed. As they say in the tow truck business, a wreck is something you leave behind you.
Tampa at Jacksonville:
When in doubt, take the home team. I know the Jags got blown out on Monday night, but Tampa was really, really bad before Josh Freeman got hurt. Now they've probably moved to the realm of being pitiable.
New England at Washington:
Holy crap. Look at the closing schedule for the Patriots. I think McNeese State is on there.
Atlanta at Carolina:
The Falcons lost to the immortal TJ Yates and his 18.67 QBERT rating last week and the Panthers made me pity the Bucs, but I'm still off the Carolina bandwagon. I also don't want to pick all home teams and I just have a feeling the Falcons pull this one out. They're the veteran team and this is the kind of game they're supposed to win. Let's see if they have the stones to do it.
Indianapolis at Baltimore:
I'm not picking this because the Colts are awash in a void of sucktasticocity, or because the hated Ravens have a really good team, or because they're at home, or because they don't have an epic joke job like this left in them for the rest of the season. I like crab cakes. There. I said it.
Philly at Miami:
I talked myself out of picking the Seahawks over the Eagles last week even though I had a bunch of compelling reasons for taking them. Here are my compelling reasons to take the Dolphins:
- They're playing considerably better of late, especially at home. Last week, they crushed a very good Raiders team.
- I think Miami head coach James Gandolfini wants to keep his job very badly and the players want him to stick around. As a result, they'll keep playing strong down the stretch, finish 8-8 or 7-9, and everyone will be talking about them in the offseason as a "sleeper" team because they came on strong late in the year and won seven of their last nine. At that point, everyone will forget that they lost seven of their first seven. My point is this: The Eagles are trending down and the Dolphins are trending up.
- Michael Vick always has a bad game his first start back after an injury. You can tell he's playing at 75% in an attempt to not get re-injured.
Minnesota at Detroit:
Vikings can't stop the pass, all the Lions can do is throw the ball. I think Detroit has enough of a pass rush even without Suh to get to Christian Ponder without blitzing.
NOLA at Tennessee:
The Saints have been unpredictable on the road and the Titans are a sneaky team. I just keep thinking this turns into a shootout and Tennessee doesn't have the firepower to keep up. But... if you trust the Titans enough and think that NOLA honks another winnable game on the road, the moneyline (Tennessee +171) looks might tempting.
Houston at Cincinnati:
TJ Yates did just enough to win against the Falcons at home last week, but I don't think "just enough" will be "enough enough" on the road against a solid Bengals team. Cincinnati has a tough run defense, which will slow down Arian Foster and Ben Tate enough to force Yates to win this game. Even if the Texans jump out to a lead, I trust the Mighty Ginger to come back and keep Cincy's playoff hopes alive.
Chicago at Denver:
Football Jesus versus the Stormin' Mormon! As it turns out, Caleb Hanie went to Colorado State, not BYU, he's from Dallas, and he was born on September 11th, 1985 (thanks, Wikipedia!). I have no idea whether he's a Mormon or not. I just assume everyone named Caleb is a Mormon. Even women.
At any rate, the Broncos are on a roll and at home and the Bears' offense is falling apart. It won't be easy -- what worth fighting for ever is? -- but Denver gets the win.
San Francisco at Arizona:
They get another efficient division win. San Francisco is a boring team that just wins. They will fall victim to the Shottenheimer Effect when they get to the playoffs, but I think they'll get the #2 seed.
Buffalo at San Diego:
I'm still off the Bills bandwagon and the Chargers -- especially Philip Rivers -- usually play their best in December. And they're at home. And Fred Jackson will be unavailable because he was placed on IR. Adam Schefter Tweeted that, when Jackson woke up from surgery, he immediately opened his laptop and cackled at my fantasy football line-up.
Oakland at Green Bay:
Keep taking the Packers until they lose. Mike McCarthy said today that he doesn't plan to rest Aaron Rodgers. That's bad news for any team that wants to keep Green Bay from going undefeated.
NY Giants at Dallas:
I'm not picking for the Giants as much as I'm picking against Romo in December. The guy is 7-10, but it really seems like he's 1-16. In a division game against a New York team that must be feeling like they let one get away against the Pack, I think the Boys find a way to blow this one.
St. Louis at Seattle:
I have been Romo-in-December-esque this season when it comes to handicapping the Seahawks, so this pick is probably wrong. All I know is that Seattle plays tough at home, they looked good against Philly last week, and the Rams are an awful, awful team.
Line of the Week:
San Francisco (-3.5) over Arizona. I don't see this game being close. As long as the 49ers remember not to kick the ball to Patrick Peterson, they'll win this one by at least a touchdown. They clinched their division, but they still need to keep winning to secure a bye in the postseason.
Moneyline of the Week:
Giants (+167) over Cowboys. I only picked one underdog this week. That worries me. But, the lines for the favorites were so intense that you'd almost lose money by winning it if you bet the favorite.
Over/Under of the Week:
Chiefs at Jets (36.5, UNDER). Kansas City has comfortably made the under in six of their last seven games. I think that trend continues this week, regardless of whether the Chiefs lost by two touchdowns or not. They won't score enough on offense to move past the over.
Steelers over Cleveland
NY Jets over Kansas City
Jacksonville over Tampa
New England over Washington
Atlanta over Carolina
Baltimore over Indianapolis
Miami over Philadelphia
Detroit over Minnesota
NOLA over Tennessee
Cincinnati over Houston
Denver over Chicago
San Francisco over Arizona
San Diego over Buffalo
Green Bay over Oakland
NY Giants over Dallas
Seattle over St. Louis
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