Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Keller's Picks, Week 16

(Click here for current NFL Pick Em standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)

I'm looking to add to my lead and make it so that I could lose every game in Week 17 -- with Weidman winning every game -- and still take the season.  It occurs to me that we never came up with a tiebreaking procedure.

In the event of a tie, the Championship goes to the guy that won the most individual weeks.  In the event of a tie there, the Championship goes to the guy that can recite the alphabet the fastest, without singing the song.

Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 16.

Houston at Indianapolis:
The Colts may have looked frisky last week and the Texans may have looked awful, but TJ Yates just wins football games.

Oakland at Kansas City:
I think Oakland continues to implode, the Chiefs play tough at home, and Kyle Orton, strange as it may sound, still has a better QBERT rating than Carson Palmer.  Also, the Raiders are a mess and the Kansas City players, for whatever reason, seem to want to rally around Romeo Crennel.  Maybe they lost a bet.  It surely can't be that they want him to their their coach, right?  Or did everyone forget that he was the worst coach Cleveland ever had (which is saying something)?

Jacksonville at Tennessee:
The Titans gave one away last week, but they still have something to play for and they're still the home team.  Also, Chris Johnson looks like he might not be dead after all and Matt Hasselbeck should be available.

Miami at New England:
Never bet against Tom Brady at home.  It's good to know that you can still count on some things.  Unless you can't.

Arizona at Cincinnati:
I was going to take the Bengals, but I feel as though I can't pick against those pesky Cardinals.  I'm tired of picking against them and then watching them screw everything up.  The Bengals are starting to wear down and the passing game isn't the same without AJ Green in the line-up.  Interesting side note: John Skelton is 4-1 as a starter.  If he wins his next two games, some team is going to trade a second round pick for him.  It could happen.  Just ask Kevin Kolb.

Denver at Buffalo:
After a brief run-in with reality last week, Football Jesus resurrects himself against the Bills.  More importantly, Buffalo is a horrible team.

St. Louis at Steelers:
I don't care who plays quarterback.  Mike Tomlin and the veteran leadership on this team don't let them drop this one, especially at home.  St. Louis may have the worst team in the league.  They're on their third quarterback and they've put 415 guys on IR; this from a team that wasn't that great to start with.

NY Giants at NY Jets:
When it doubt, take the... what's that?  They play in the same stadium?  The NFL schedule makers decided to make this a home game because, "Shut up, that's why"?  Got it.  Well, the Giants suck at home.  This is about the time of year that everyone writes the Jets off and then they close the season by crushing two good teams.  The Giants just happen to be the first in line.

Minnesota at Washington:
You know what?  Sexy Rexy showed me something last week.  The Redskins passing game is starting to find its groove.  Quick stat.  Whose stats are these: 110.4 rating, 69.1 completion percentage, 3,646 yards passing, 31 touchdowns, and six interceptions?  Answer: Quarterbacks who have faced the Vikings this season.  Their pass defense is historically awful, is what I'm saying.

Tampa at Carolina:
I hate picking the Panthers, but I can't, in good conscience, pick the Bucs.  With the recent spate of coach firings, how does Raheem Morris still have a job?  Does he have some compromising pictures of Malcolm Glazer or something?  Maybe Glazer's focusing too much of his time on Manchester United.

Cleveland at Baltimore:
Much as I hope the hated Ravens lose, it ain't gonna happen.  This is because Cleveland sucks.

San Diego at Detroit:
What do my grandparents and Philip Rivers have in common?  They're both money in December.  Matthew Stafford has used up all his miracles and Jesus likes Tebow more anyway.

Philadelphia at Dallas:
The Eagles finally woke up and are playing to their potential, Andy Reid is coaching for his job, and Romo + December + Garrett is an extremely beatable combination, even at home.  This is my shakiest pick of the week, by the way.  Call it a gut feeling.

San Francisco at Seattle:
I think the 49ers keep rolling.  They're a great football team and Jim Harbaugh is so competitive that he would keep his starters in to win at Parcheesi.

Chicago at Green Bay:
Hey, I love a good upset as much as the next guy, but the Packers are too good a team to drop a game at home to a McCown brother.

Atlanta at NOLA:
Saints are 6-0 at home and they've been crushing everyone that comes to the Super Dome.  I think this is a high scoring game with a lot of fantasy points in play, but NOLA ultimately prevails.  Bonus Prediction: Drew Brees sets the record for passing yards in a season on Monday night.

Line of the Week:
St. Louis (+15.5) at Steelers.  We don't know who the Steelers are starting at quarterback.  Sure, the Rams are awful, but 16 points worse than Charlie Batch's squad?  I think not.  Take the points.

Moneyline of the Week:
San Diego (+120) at Detroit.  Chargers are on fire, Lions aren't.  Gotta go with the hot team on this one.

Over/Under of the Week:
Atlanta at New Orleans (53, OVER).  I'm feeling a 35-31 barn burner on this one.  Write it down.  Or, ya know, bookmark this page.  You heard it here first.

Houston over Indianapolis
Tennessee over Jacksonville
Kansas City over Oakland
New England over Miami
Arizona over Cincinnati
Denver over Buffalo
Steelers over St. Louis
NY Jets over NY Giants
Washington over Minnesota
Carolina over Tampa
Baltimore over Cleveland
San Diego over Detroit
Philadelphia over Dallas
San Francisco over Seattle
Green Bay over Chicago
NOLA over Atlanta

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