Thursday, April 29, 2010

Penguins Playoff Primer: Round 2

Going into the Eastern Conference playoffs, there were three things that scared me: The Washington Capitals, Da Devil, and Ryan Miller. Now that all three of those things have been eliminated from the Eastern side of the bracket, there's nothing to be afraid of.

And that's what scares me.

It's great that the Penguins seem to have that "extra gear" that they can switch to when things really matter, but I'm wondering if that switch will be harder and harder to switch as the playoffs continue, until such time as flipping the switch becomes impossible. They played a tremendous period and a half, plus overtime, against the Senators to close out that series, but I'm wondering where that intensity and focus was for most of Game 5 and Game 6. Are they going to come out in this series with everything running on all cylinders, or are they going to underestimate the Habs simply because they're the eight seed and shouldn't have gotten this far in the first place?

Let me explain this another way. I hate the movie Good Will Hunting. What annoys me about it is that Matt Damon is smarter than me, he's better looking than me, he's in far better shape than I am, he has companies throwing themselves at him and giving him opportunities that pay $200,000 a year, and he gets to bang Minnie Driver. His biggest issue -- and what makes Good Will Hunting a modern day tragedy -- is that he doesn't want to succeed. My problem with the premise is that I'm not sure how I'm supposed to feel about Matt Damon. Am I supposed to feel sorry for him? Am I supposed to root for him? Am I supposed to feel empathy for him? He's superior to me in every way. How can I feel empathy for him? I'd love to be in his position and spend the whole movie wondering why he doesn't just suck it up and live like the rest of us.

Are the Pens going to lose because they don't want to succeed? Heading into this series, you can bet that the Habs want to win this series more than the Penguins do. In the playoffs, talent matters, experience matters, match-ups matter, but the will to win is equally as important. As far as I can tell, the Penguins are superior to the Canadiens in every way. Well, I can't feel sorry for the Pens or feel empathy for them, and I've been rooting for them all my life, so that's not the issue. The problem is that they only seem to flip that switch or find that extra gear when it really matters. What seems to be escaping them is that this is the playoffs and everything matters.

It could be that they turn it on and keep it on. It could be that they struggle to eventually put the Habs away. It could also be that the Habs have too much momentum, too much confidence, and too much of an "us against the world mentality" to be dispatched as easily as the Pens would like them to be dispatched and Montreal wins. Obviously, I don't want that to happen, but if it does happen, that's how it goes down.

Now, it would be foolish to overlook the Habs just because they're the eight seed. They came back from being down three games to one against an extremely talented Capitals team that finished the regular season with the best record in the NHL. They're fast, they're smart, they have a great coach, and goaltender Jaroslov Halak is on a huge roll, having stopped 131 of the last 134 shots he's faced.

But, aside from the intangibles -- which is the biggest factor the Canadiens have going for them -- I see this series breaking down to the following factors.

Rest Factor:

If you're the Habs, here's how the 45 hours from beating the Caps to facing the Pens breaks down.

Wednesday:
10:00 p.m.: Spend some time fending off the final rush of the Capitals and celebrate like crazy when you realize you managed to beat the best team in the league on their ice after being down three games to one.
10:30 p.m.: Get to the dressing room, shower, and commence drinking.
11:00 p.m.: Find out that the NHL has just screwed your entire team in a most unholy fashion in order to get precious TV revenue and come to the horrifying realization that you need to play another road game in 44 hours against the defending champs.
11:01 p.m. to 7 a.m. Thursday: Flying, drinking, and sleeping.

Thursday:
7 a.m. to 3 p.m.: Hungover morning skate and team meetings.
3 p.m. to 7 p.m.: Fly to Pittsburgh.
7 p.m. to 11 p.m.: Some meetings, getting checked into the hotel, etc.

Friday:
7 a.m. to 5 p.m.: Morning skate, meetings, practice.
5 p.m. to 7 p.m.: Game prep.
7 p.m.: Play the defending champs on their ice.

That's a pretty daunting schedule, right? The Pens have been resting and preparing since at least Monday after they took two days off in the wake of their first round victory.

The Habs just played a brutal seven game series. They're tired. The Pens didn't and they aren't. The only thing working in Montreal's favor is that the Pens have had about as much time to prepare for them as they have to prepare for the Pens.

So, the first game is going to be sloppy and uneven as the two teams feel each other out, but the Canadiens will have to be too physically, mentally, and emotionally exhausted to win.

Talent Factor:

The Pens have way more of this than the Habs do. If all other things remain equal, there's no way the Canadiens can keep up. Then again, this was true in the series against the Capitals.

Sustainability Factor:

Halak has stopped 131 of the last 134 shots he's faced. You can't keep that kind of pace up.

The Habs killed 32 of 33 penalties in the Washington series. You can't keep that kind of pace up.

So, their goalie was on fire, their penalty kill was nearly perfect, and they still needed seven games to put the Caps away. Worse yet, they had all those things going in their favor and they were still outscored for the series 22 goals to 20.

Hey, I believe in the power of positive thinking, momentum, the "us against the world" mentality as a motivating factor, and miracles. I still don't believe the Habs are going to win.

Prediction:

Pens in five.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Steelers Draft Review

My top three selections from this draft (in order):
  1. Bryant McFadden (fifth round)
  2. Maurkice Pouncey (first round)
  3. Byron Leftwich (seventh round)
Those are the three guys on this list that will be able to help the team right away. In that order. As you'll notice, two of those guys are people that we traded draft picks for. They were also on the 2008 Steelers, who won Super Bowl XLIII, in case I failed to mention that we won that game.

When the Steelers failed to re-sign McFadden, I called it a John Jackson/Rod Woodson level failure, or something like that. I thought that McFadden was going to go out into the world, dominate everyone, sign a huge deal, and make the Steelers look like idiots. Well, that didn't happen. He failed to win a starting job for Steelers West and was quickly traded in the offseason like he was some wide receiver in a contract year that had judgment issues.

I still have faith in McFadden. He knows the system, LeBeau knows how to use him, and he's no worse than the merry band of turnstiles that we had last season, so there you go. I'm not saying that he comes back in 2010 and dominates, but I think he'll do better with us than he did in the desert.

I am not a Leftwich fan, but I realize that he's somewhere between Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch on the upside/downside meter. With Batch, you know what you're going to get. You're going to get a guy that has played like four downs of football since the Bush administration (not the first one). With Dixon, you're not sure what you're going to get. With Leftwich, you know you're going to get a statuesque passer that has a 12 second delivery and will, most games, complete 60 percent of his passes and not make any big mistakes. The Steelers refuse to listen to me anyway, but I am happy about the fact that, as some kind of fanboy Goldilocks, I at least have a debate between cold, hot, and just right, with the knowledge that I should pay $78 for the right to eat whatever porridge is selected for me and be happy for the privilege.

To clarify: I am not down on the Steelers, the NFL, or fandom. I am simply preparing myself for the 6-10 season in 2010 and the bitterness that will ensue. By proxy, I'm preparing you. So, you're welcome.

Onto the other picks...

We drafted three OLBs. I'm going to lump them all together because I didn't think that OLB was a huge position of need heading into the draft, but, as always, I was wrong.

Aside from the fact that Jason Worilds -- I have heard his name pronounced ten times and I still don't think I have it right -- went to Virgina Tech, I like him. I wanted the Steelers to draft Golden Tate -- who was still available, by the way -- but, it's their team, I guess, so they can draft who they want. The issue with this pick is that we already have two Pro Bowl guys in Woodley and Harrison, so it's going to be at least two years (barring injury) before Worilds sees the field in any significant way. Granted, Tomlin hates rookies, but I would have rather seen them pick Tate and have him supplant Randle-El in the return game and take over Santonio's role of "guy that catches the ball, then runs around 20 dudes on his way to the end zone." At this point, we don't have a guy like that. We need a guy like that.

Thaddeus Gibson has a bad-ass name. He went to Ohio State. I think we're done here.

Stevenson Sylvester has a name that sounds like he was cut out of an Oscar Wilde play because the character name was too absurd. He's listed as an outside linebacker, but he only weighs 231 pounds. Mike Tomlin said at the draft that he, "Likes guys that are 250 pounds and like to run around and hit people." That's a great sound bite, but it begs the question: Why draft Sylvester? Now, if you're fat like me, you understand the difference between 231 pounds and 250 pounds. Skinny people don't get it. There is a HUGE difference. Does he just contribute on special teams? Do we try to move him inside? He's still a little small for that? Do we treat him like veal and try to shove food down his throat while he can't move so that he gets fat? I don't understand. There were offensive linemen available at this point. There were cornerbacks. There were running backs. Why draft someone that would make me make an off-color veal joke? I just don't get it.

Emmanuel Sanders is an undersized player who projects to play out of the slot. Why, then, did we sign Randle-El? Arnaz Battle? Still wondering why we didn't take Tate.

Because we drafted Antonio Brown in the sixth round. He has no chance to make the roster unless he returns kicks. Golden Tate returns kicks. So does Antwaan Randle-El. Again, I am confused.

Let's move on to picks I actually liked:

I like Doug Worthington. He's big -- 6'6" and 292 pounds, about the same size as Aaron Smith -- and the knock on him is that he's not a pass rusher and he takes on too many blocks. How is this not perfect for a 3-4 end? Why didn't other teams take him? I know they were all busy passing on Golden Tate and Colt McCoy and Jimmy Clausen, but it's still perplexing. I think that Worthington has real potential, especially given that the average age of our defensive linemen is death.

Jonathan Dwyer, in my opinion, was a great pick. They got him in the sixth round, so there's very little risk involved and not really any expectations tied with the pick -- like with Worilds, who has a lot of Alonzo Jackson in him, but maybe I'm just bitter -- and he averaged 1,395 yards rushing the last two seasons. Granted, that was in the ACC. Granted, Chan Gailey was his coach. Granted, he was 255 pounds at the end of the season and lost 25 pounds to get down to 230 for the Combine. His weight needs to be monitored. He runs too upright. He has a fat man's feet -- the biggest asset that Jerome Bettis, the quintessential fat man, had was that he had the nimble feet and hips of a much smaller man -- and he's not fast. Not like, not 40-time fast, but really not fast. Like, if he has a run longer than 15 yards in the NFL, it will be because everyone on the defense has been knocked down. However, he was a tremendously productive college player, he runs well between the tackles, and he's money inside the 10. If he were a first round pick, I'd be upset. In the sixth round, I think he can contribute.

Now, the guy I'm not sure about:

Chris Scott, Guard, Tennessee. He could be the next DFS, he could be the next Trai Essex. The thing is that he's not fast or athletic enough to play tackle, but he's too tall and he's not mean enough to play guard. So... do like with Essex and make him the top back-up at both positions and pray no one gets hurt? I don't like where that's headed, but Essex was a third round pick and Scott was one of three fifth round picks, so I'm willing to take a whirl.

Draft Grade:

Since I have to take McFadden and Leftwich out of the equation, I need to give this draft a C. Basically, they took a bunch of fliers on a bunch of guys that could make it big or could totally bust out. If they make it big, I look dumb and the Steelers benefit. If they bust out, I look like a genius and the Steelers suffer.

Guess which one of those scenarios I'm rooting for, given that I am usually wrong?

Friday, April 23, 2010

Steelers Day Two Draft Preview

Before we get to Day Two, let's do a quick review of Day One (aka yesterday).
  1. Having the draft on a Thursday night royally sucked in my opinion. It wasn't just that the Pens were also on and that my attention was diverted. It was that I had to deal with rush hour traffic. And I got to bed late. And I had to wake up and go to work today. Now, I have to wait all day for the draft to start up again. After tonight -- another late night, probably, but I don't have to go to work the next morning -- the draft is less than half over and there's no draft to look forward to on Sunday. I still went out, I still had a great time with Weidman and Dunder, but everything surrounding that time kinda sucked and I can't help but think that the suckage would have been severely lessened had the draft happened on Saturday this year instead of prime time on a Thursday. The ratings for ESPN were up by 30 percent... so this probably isn't going to change, which is even more suckage. But, the upside is that I had all day to think about the first round and only the first round, it's easier for me to break everything down and manage it, both as a fan and the purveyor of this blog, and it's easier for the professionals to cover it and dissect it.
  2. I love the Pouncey pick, obviously, because I finally correctly predicted a Steelers first round pick. The more I hear about him, the more I like him. He lives at the gym, he loves football, he played for a major college program, he's had success everywhere he's been, and he has a nasty attitude on the field but no character concerns off of it. Here's hoping we draft more like him. But... there was that awkward mouth kiss with his brother after he got drafted... and that kind of concerned me. Not that there's anything wrong with that. It was just weird.
  3. We still need a quality outside linebacker, a good cornerback, probably a wide receiver, at least one defensive end, probably a defensive tackle, and at least one offensive tackle.
  4. That's at most six players. We have nine picks left. If we come out of this draft with ten players selected, I am going to be very put out. We're basically in a rebuilding phase right now, but there's a bunch of guys on the roster that can still play, so it's not like we can cut everyone and start fresh. We also can't draft a bunch of guys, then grab some undrafted guys, and assume that they're all going to get a roster spot. There's too much talent on the roster for all those guys to get jobs. I would rather get six quality players than just taking ten guys because we can.
Second Round Preview:

That means we trade up today. Golden Tate is still available. In most of the mock drafts I've seen -- adjusted for who was taken yesterday and who's still available versus what was predicted before the actual draft happened -- Tate is still being taken in the 42-45 range. We have a ton of picks and should use them to move up in the second round so we can grab some Tate.

I think he'd be a great addition. He's probably the most polished receiver in the draft, he's also a kick returner, and he's one of those guys that seems to play faster than his timed speed and always be able to come back to the ball and catch it at its highest point (like Larry Fitzgerald). I've liked him since the beginning of last season, but I didn't think we'd have a shot at him in the second round. Now that we have a shot at him, I'm saying we should go for it.

A lot of people are saying that we should go after Sean Lee, the linebacker from Penn State. I think Lee's a great player and he'll be a solid linebacker in the NFL, but I don't think he fits the Steelers scheme, I don't think he's worth trading up for, and I think he'll be gone by the time we pick. If we sit still and he falls to us, I think we need to take him because we have him rated so high, but I don't think he falls in our lap.

I've also heard a lot about Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, a cornerback and kick returner that has tremendous athletic ability, is a very effective return specialist, and dominated in college. The issue with him is that he hasn't been playing the position very long and he played at IUP, so he didn't face the highest level of competition when he was in college. Basically, he was a man among boys. If the Steelers can coach him up, he has a lot of potential and could actually be a steal. My problem with him is that his scouting report reads just like Ike Taylor's -- great athlete, still learning the position, played against a lower level of competition -- but the major difference here is that we drafted Ike in the fourth round when we didn't have a pressing need for a cornerback. The coaches were allowed to bring him along slowly, there wasn't a ton of pressure on him... and he still wasn't all that great. Owusu-Ansah is a bigger risk because he'd be a higher pick, so we'd want to get him involved faster, he might not be ready, and there will be more pressure on him because our secondary sucks and he might be our savior. Notice that I haven't piled on the fact that he's also a local kid that grew up in Columbus and went to IUP.

Obviously, the Steelers make their own decisions and don't usually put the opinions and desires of their fans first, but they might take Lee or
Owusu-Ansah to appeal to people that would prefer them to have a hometown kid.

They could also take guard Jon Asamoah from Illinois and decide that they finally need to take the interior of their offensive line seriously.

With the 52nd Pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, the Steelers Select: Golden Tate, Wide Receiver, Notre Dame.

That's more of a best case scenario/dream pick, but I really think they trade up -- maybe even using the fifth round pick they got for Santonio -- and grab some Tate. Dunder already has the marketing plan together for Black and Golden Tate, so it seems a shame to waste a good idea.

Third Round Preview:

I have no inside sources and nothing to back this up, but I have this weird feeling that Terrence Cody of Alabama is still going to be there. Cody a pretty standard NFL story. Coming into the season, everyone considered him to be one of the three best defensive tackles in the country. Heading into the draft, he seemed to solidify that position.

At the Combine, everyone finally saw him in just a pair of shorts and realized that he's got some serious man-boobs and no real shape to his torso. Well, round is a shape, but that's not really what NFL teams are looking for.

It's true that Casey Hampton's nickname is Big Snack. It's true that he's been a great player in the league for about ten years. It's true that he's short and he's super fat. But, it's also true that he's a powerfully built, stocky man with a low center of gravity that carries a lot more weight and muscle in his thighs and calves than most people realize. Terrence Cody is just fat. That has turned off a lot of teams.

Someone will draft him eventually because there will always be jobs for big, fat guys in the NFL, but, at some point, you also have to be strong, have a low center of gravity so that you can use that mass to effectively drop anchor, and have fast hands. Hampton has all those things and had all those things when he was drafted.

Cody needs some work, but who better to tutor and guide Terrence on what not to do than Big Snack? With the contract Hampton signed in the offseason, that gives Cody enough time to hit the weight room, get in better shape, and learn how to use his body more effectively. By the time Hampton's contract is up -- or he gets cut, whichever -- Cody will be able to take over.

Again, this is just a feeling, but I think there are enough teams that stay away from him because his ass looks like about 150 pounds of chewed bubble gum, then there will be just enough teams that stay away from him because everyone else is staying away from him. The Steelers could end up winning out in that scenario and might just get their heir apparent at nose tackle.

With the 82nd Pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers Select: Terrence Cody, Defensive Tackle, Alabama.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Steelers First Round Draft Preview

This year, I'm doing things a little differently. Like the addict that I am, I'm taking things one day at a time. I'm doing the first round today, then 2 and 3 tomorrow, then 4-7... well, probably tomorrow after the draft, because I'm not waking up that early on a Saturday to write about guys that probably won't make the team.

This is the most interesting first round the Steelers have had in quite some time. I think that, interestingly enough, the last time there was this much intrigue surrounding the Steelers and the first round, it was 2004, the year they drafted one Ben Roethlisberger.

It's possible -- though highly unlikely -- that the Steelers will be drafting twice in the first 18 picks, which I can't remember ever happening before. The leading candidate to trade for Roethlisberger is Oakland. The Steelers, allegedly, are only talking to teams in the top ten. That means that every time a team in the top ten goes on the clock, there will be the possibility that Kaiser Goodell will come up to the podium and announce that there has been a trade and the Steelers are now on the clock.

That's 100 minutes of drama right there. Who can say that they're not interested in how it plays out.

At this point -- and, really, the horse is dead and I've been whipping it for a while, so I'll be as brief as possible -- I say get what you can for Roethlisberger and move on.
  1. If you traded Santonio for exercising poor judgment, then what kind of judgment, exactly, did Roethlisberger exercise? What's worse than poor?
  2. Santonio was facing a four game suspension, Roethlisberger has already been handed a four to six game suspension.
  3. This is not about race, this about position. This is a quarterback's league and Ben is a quarterback, Holmes isn't.
  4. Why trade Ben from a football standpoint? You already traded Holmes and he was the Super Bowl MVP, not Ben. Who won the MVP for Super Bowl XL? Yep, the receiver. Maybe Ben isn't as important as we've been led to believe.
  5. I have been preparing for the Dennis Dixon era since the middle of March. I'm ready. Let's get rid of him and move on. I'm tired of it, the Rooneys are tired of it, let someone else deal with the consequences of when he screws up again.
A lot of Steeler fans think that we got 20 cents on the dollar for Holmes. I disagree. A troubled receiver in the final year of his contract facing a four game suspension is worth... probably a fourth round pick. Brandon Marshall was worth a second round pick, but he's a way better player than Holmes and I think we need to acknowledge that and move on. Holmes is a great player and he'll be great for the Jets, but I foresee some serious Plaxico in his future and that worries me.

As far as getting the eighth overall pick from Oakland for Roethlisberger is concerned, I'm all for it. Imagine you buy a Subaru for $17,000, drive it for four years, then need to replace the transmission. Someone offers you $20,000 for it the next year. Knowing that it has a history of transmission problems... you gotta pull the trigger on that, right? Sure, you then don't have a car, but you've rid yourself of a potential problem and you're $20,000 richer. Buy a new car and move on.

Now, it looks like no one wants to pull the trigger on him. Adam Schefter said that Roethlisberger was "radioactive" earlier today. But, Kevin Colbert is a hell of a wheeler and dealer. Could be he gets something done in the top ten, especially if another team trades into the top ten and takes Jimmy Klausen off the board. Then someone who needs a franchise quarterback and still has a top ten pick, but no franchise quarterback available maybe makes a deal.

First Round Projection:

Here's the thing with the rest of the first round after Ben is either traded or not traded: There's not much suspense.

If Maurkice Pouncey is available, the Steelers will take him. He's from Florida -- Colbert loves guys from the Sunshine State that also played in Gainesville -- he's a "sure thing" and he's a center. The Steelers used to have a proud tradition at the position, but they haven't been able to replace Jeff Hartings and, really, they haven't had a great player there since Dermonti Dawson.

If Pouncey isn't there, I really don't think they draft a cornerback. If they can't get Joe Haden -- another Florida player -- they really shouldn't bother. I've said this a million times, but the Steelers cornerbacks look much better when Troy's healthy and they almost look good when the pass rush is getting to the quarterback. The success or failure of the back four depends more on how good the front seven is than the quality of players in the secondary.

If Jason Pierre-Paul is still available, we take him. He won't be, but he'd be a good pick.

There will be a run on offensive and defensive tackles like there always is, so all the top-20 guys will be gone by the time the Steelers pick. If they take an offensive or defensive tackle at 18th overall, they're reaching, pure and simple.

So, what if they trade Ben to Oakland? Do they take Clausen if he's available? Well, no. They have three quarterbacks on the roster already and they don't need to break in another rookie.

Probably, they take Haden, because he's awesome.

Possibly, they address the left tackle position and take either Trent Williams -- if he's still available, which would be a stretch -- or Anthony Davis. The only spot that makes sense to draft an offensive tackle in the first round is the top ten. The only spot where drafting a defensive tackle in the first round makes sense is in the top five.

Maybe Eric Berry is still there and they have three of the awesomest safeties in the NFL. The cool thing about drafting in the top ten is that you're guaranteed to take someone that's exciting. Yes, they may end up sucking major balls later on in their career, but they'll sure be exciting in the early going.

For a preview -- that's a preview within a preview for you meta fans out there -- of tomorrow, I originally thought that the Steelers would take Golden Tate after they traded Santonio. Well, apparently, Golden Tate is now the most overblown (maybe not a good word choice) prospect in the history of anything. So, that means he may be available early in the second round.

I've seen projections that have him going anywhere from 42-48, which is close to where the Steelers pick at 50. The Steelers have a bajillion picks, so they would be able to move up a few spots and get Tate if he makes it through the first round.

Conveniently enough, there's almost a one day break between the first round and the second round, so that would give Colbert and his trading partner plenty of time to hammer out the details.

I actually think Tate is worth the 18th pick, but if there's a way we can get both Tate and Pouncey, then I would prefer we get both.

And, even though I think Tate would be a great player -- he also would excel in the return game -- I would choose Pouncey over Tate because we have plenty of talent at receiver and we really, really need to stop treading water at the center position.

So:

With the 18th Pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers Select: Maurkice Pouncey, Center, Florida.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Penguins Playoff Primer

I meant to write this earlier, but I had to do all kinda work at work today, so that got in the way. I think I will be able to get this posted before the game starts tonight, so either I'll look super brilliant or super dumb.

Either way, I won't look lazy, so that's good.

If we're just looking at the Ottawa series, I think we'll win. I actually think we'll win in five, maybe six if Fleury comes out of the gate sluggish.

I think this because:
  1. Something tells me we won't fall flat on our faces and embarrass ourselves in our Cup defense. I think we win at least one series.
  2. Ottawa doesn't scare me.
  3. At this point, the Pens are the "grizzled veteran" team and experience matters in the first round.
  4. Talent also matters and the Pens have more of that than the Senators do.
  5. The Pens are better than their seeding and Ottawa is not.
But, after this series, things get really, really scary.
  1. The Capitals scare the hell out of me. Strangely, I feel as though we can beat them in a seven game series even though we weren't able to beat them (not once) this year. I have no data to back that up, it's a pretty dumb thing to say, and it's just a feeling, but I feel strongly about it.
  2. The Devils scare the hell out of me. They also have Marty Brodeur. That's a bad combination as far as the Pens' chances of repeating are concerned.
  3. Including the regular season, the postseason, and the Olympics, the Pens stars have played in roughly 8,414 games since April 2008. They're young, they're talented, but they also have an upward limit of how hard they can play and how much they can skate around before they lose their edge. In the playoffs -- especially as the stakes get higher -- you need that edge. They were good enough to squeak by an overpowered Islanders team (twice) at the end of the season, but I think that they can't sustain that for 28 games. You can only win so many hockey playoff games on balls and determination. I think that number is approximately six, which is why the Pens win this series, but probably lose the next one.
  4. Fleury has looked about as comfortable in net as a priest at a swinger's party since the first of the year, so that's not good. It's not like he'll wake up tomorrow and forget how to play hockey, but the margin for error at the goalie position -- particularly in the playoffs -- is so slim that you can't think about it too much, you just need to react. When Fleury is playing with confidence, he just reacts and later on reflects on how many great plays he made. When he's not, he thinks too much, he doubts himself, and that millisecond of doubt puts him out of position just enough to make the difference between a stop and a goal.
  5. Flat out, the power play sucks. There are ways around the mass suckage -- more on this in a moment -- but there's only so much whiskey and lipstick that can make this pig look appealing.
  6. Even if the Pens manage to make it out of the Eastern Conference, they'll probably have to face the Blackhawks. The Blackhawks scare me more than the Capitals or the Devils. If it's not the Blackhawks, it'll be the Red Wings... and a three-peat of that match-up both bores me and scares me. In any event, I don't like it, so it belongs on this list.
All that having been said, we definitely get out of the first round, then who the hell knows.
  1. Maybe the Blackhawks and Red Wings get knocked out in the West.
  2. Maybe the Devils and the Capitals get knocked out in the East.
  3. Maybe the power play comes back to life because Malkin and Crosby are put on every power play shift and Kennedy and Guerrin come back to life. That would help, but everyone needs to play with more desperation and intensity on the power play and that's not something you can necessarily coach.
  4. Maybe Fleury returns to his Stanley Cup form and closes the door on the competition.
  5. Maybe the other talented goalies in both brackets start to come unglued, just like Tim Thomas, Cam Ward, and Semyon Varlamov -- and to some extent Chris Osgood -- did last postseason.
That's a lot of maybes. But, we do have some things working in our favor.
  1. That Marc-Andre Fleury, he's no slouch, despite his inconsistency.
  2. Still have two of the best players on the planet.
  3. Anyone can get hot and run the table... provided they get really, really hot after those first couple of series are out of the way. If the Pens can get to the Eastern finals, then look out. All the guys that went to two straight Cup finals will start to smell it and turn up the intensity. And Fleury will come around and maybe the power play fixes itself... but that's if we get past that second series.
  4. The defense is much better this year than it was last year, even at the height of their awesomeness in the Carolina series.
  5. The penalty kill has been outstanding and it is super super super duper important to have a great penalty kill in the playoffs.
  6. We still scored over 100 points and narrowly missed the #2 seed. We're better than a #4, but we still have lots of holes.
  7. We were the #4 seed last season. Just saying.
That's seven (really six) things that we have going for us, which is nice. But, I think the fact that the Capitals are the better team, the Blackhawks loom, and that our big-time guys are more tired than they're letting on is going to mean we fall short of another Cup this year.

But, in case I hadn't mentioned this previously, we won the Stanley Cup last year. So I'm fine with falling short this year. With this team, these guys, and the guys that will be in place for years to come, we'll be back.

Maybe it's not our year. Maybe it is.

Is there anyone else out there that can't wait to find out? I know I sure can't.

Playoff Beard Rules

I actually defined these rules last year during the run to the Stanley Cup Final, but never posted them. So, here they are. I am currently growing a playoff beard.

1. If you currently have a beard, it's okay.

I normally have a beard, but I trimmed it down before the Stanley Cup Playoffs started. The key is to take pride in your growth and the fact that you're supporting your team. As your beard grows, their chances to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup grow.

2. Neck beards are not cool.

Neck bears are unattractive, itchy, and basically the equivalent of slapping God in the face for giving you a beautiful gift.

The idea is that God gave us power of attorney over the beasts of the land, the sea, and the air. Earth is our sanctuary and our bodies are our temples. If we let hair grow on our necks, nature wins. We need to seize power of attorney and shave it down.

Also, if you look at NHL players, they're not rocking the Kyle Orton Classic. They keep a balance between order and chaos by holding their neck hair in check.

Additionally, a lot of hockey fans have these things. They're called jobs. A regular beard is usually acceptable, but a neck beard pushes the envelope. I love the Penguins. I love the Steelers. I love the Pirates. I love Pitt basketball. I love job security more.

And I'm sure we can all appreciate the relevance of that now.

3. The mustache is almost fair game.

If I kiss my wife (or significant other) and they make a face like a very small rat crawled up their nose and they need to expel it at all costs, then it's time to do some work on the old mustache.

I'm not saying trim it to douchebag levels (the 1 setting on most trimmers). I'm not saying that you should go all Civil War and just grow chops. I'm not saying you should go all Alternative Rocker and forgo the mustache. I'm saying this...

To paraphrase the great Dave Chappelle (from Half Baked)... I love hockey. I mean, I love hockey. But not as much as I love a certain part of the female anatomy.

Therefore, wife wins over hockey.

I'm sorry. I understand that this makes me a pansy. But, I'm a pansy who's getting some... so it's cool.

So, trim it within reason. And remember to walk that fine line between being a certain part of the female anatomy and "experiencing" a certain part of the female anatomy.

4. You are not allowed to make a spectacle of your playoff beard.

Don't tell anyone that you're growing one. Don't write blog posts about it (unless, you know, you're writing a guide about it... okay, I made that up to cover myself). Don't bring it up at happy hour.

Hockey is a sport of unwritten rules and silent acceptance. It isn't a sport for showboating or celebrating, which is why Malkin got in trouble for switching from the "arm pump, then hug teammates" paradigm.

The neck beard follows the same rules. Do not waiver from them.

5. You are not allowed to complain about your playoff beard.

Don't say, "Wow. This is getting out of hand. I can't wait until I can trim it or cut it off." Don't say, "I can't wait until the playoffs are over so that I can trim this or cut it off." Don't even say, "I can't wait until the Penguins win the Cup so I can trim this or cut it off."

If you're the kind of person that is superstitious enough to grow a playoff beard, you're the kind of person that is superstitious enough to believe that such statements can sink your team.

I actually said the third statement before the Final started against Detroit. And I will never forgive myself.

6. Have fun with it.


This is something that many sports fans (myself definitely included) forget. Sports are supposed to be fun. Sports are supposed to be an escape.

As many rules as I have outlined, rules are made to be broken. It's the playoffs. Not everything is called. Not everything requires a stoppage of play.

But, also remember that your team is counting on you. So, don't blow it.

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Roethlisberger Redux

It appears as though the Roethlisberger Situation has not come fully to a close. In an article published earlier today, ProFootballTalk's Mike Florio has indicated that Roethlisberger was almost charged in a similar incident in Boston.

While I don't usually lend much credence to what Florio publishes as news, this is another very unfortunate incident that is linked to Big Ben. That means that it's possible that he either was accused, was almost charged, or was sued in three separate incidents.

All this news comes after another incident involving Santonio Holmes, who was traded to the New York Jets for a fifth round pick.

If nothing else, that means that the Steelers currently have Jeff Reed, James Harrison, and Ben Roethlisberger under contract and all of those gentlemen were involved in at least one unsavory incident. That serves to tarnish the "good guy" image that the Steelers and the Rooneys have spent so much time and energy trying to maintain.

Well, for one, the Rooneys have already absolved Harrison, considering that his incident occurred a couple of years ago and that it happened during the Easter holiday... which somehow absolves him in the spirit of Christian forgiveness. I have to personally vouch for Reed in that he's a good kicker and that none of his incidents were anything above and beyond what I personally have done in the fits of a drunken stupor. Now, I've never assaulted a towel dispenser, but I have definitely said things that I should not have to the police and most certainly have urinated upon or otherwise damaged (or stolen) property that was not mine under the influence of alcohol.

And, ultimately, Reed is a kicker. They are known for being eccentric and I am personally grateful that he never tore his ACL celebrating a kick or has given up a touchdown in a Super Bowl on a boneheaded play. So... Reed is forgiven.

The issue with Roethlisberger is that, right or wrong, he plays a vital position, is the face of the franchise, and has a number of endorsement deals in place. Fans, players, and pundits hold him to a higher standard than they do kickers or linebackers.

From the Steeler fans that I have talked to, they are separated into two camps:
  1. Wow. I'm glad he didn't get charged with anything so that we can win some games.
  2. He's a douchebag and I don't care how many games we lose without him. We need to cut him.
It has already been firmly established by history that the Rooneys don't care what the fans think. I have repeatedly sent e-mails to them and I know they read my blog and they have not responded to my suggestions. In addition, they charge seat licenses and conduct player evaluations according to their own policies, but that's obviously secondary.

At this point, the Rooneys have a decision to make. There is no conceivable way that Roethlisberger will not be a distraction this offseason and, in all likelihood, he will be a distraction in future offseasons. The allegations of the cases against him cannot be disputed. Every other allegation that comes down the pike -- and, if history is anything to shout about, there will be more allegations -- will include Ben's past discretions. Roethlisberger and the Steelers cannot hide from history and there is only so much that can be swept under the rug.

The question remains: How many offseasons of distractions can be endured? The Steelers juiced in the 70s and had a number of bitter labor disputes. In the 90s, they had a couple of salary cap infractions and some players that got out of control at times. In this decade and the next, they face even more distractions. How many black marks -- from women-beaters to drunken kickers to philandering quarterbacks that may or may not have crossed a line -- can they endure before they lose the image that they have worked so hard to preserve?

I will always love the Steelers. I will remain committed to the Steelers. But, as the allegations and stories continue to pour in, it will be incredibly difficult to defend the Steelers.

I don't know about anyone else, but I will find it increasingly difficult to fall back on six Super Bowl championships in the face of mounting evidence. Do we want to become Cowboys fans? Bengals fans? One of the strengths of Steeler Nation is the single-minded focus of its purpose: Good guys who went out and won games and shook the hands of their bested opponents at the end of the game. Do we want to imagine their bested opponents saying, "Hey, make sure your quarterback doesn't rape anyone in the post-game party"?

I don't. I think we've won enough games, we've had enough success, and I'm willing to endure some dark seasons in light of a return to following the rules, having good guys on the team, and the spirit of sportsmanship. Let the teams that haven't won more Super Bowls than anyone else in history hire all the degenerates and sociopaths that run a fast 40 time.

I think we preserve our pride and our dignity by releasing (or trading) a player like Roethlisberger and not having his taint on our franchise. I understand that it's a business, but I think that more and more patrons would be proud to plunk down their hard-earned dollars to watch a team that values character as well as talent.

I'm not saying that Ben Roethlisberger is a bad person or a bad player, he's simply misguided. And flawed. And unfixable. And we don't need that kind of player on our team.

Thursday, April 01, 2010

Roethlisberger Update

It's been a while since I posted The Roethlisberger Situation and there's been some new information, so I felt the need to update.

I have the feeling that Ben Roethlisberger will be charged with something bad. Like, real bad. Like, "Needs a trial" bad. Given the fact that Dan Rooney is stateside, Art Rooney II has been non-committal in his statements, and Kaiser Goodell has adopted a "wait and see" approach while he sharpens his Mighty Axe, I think all that forms a horrible confluence of bad for Mr. Roethlisberger.

Obviously, he hasn't been charged with anything yet. I'm no lawyer, but I had previously assumed that the long delay between accusation and formal charges coupled with the fact that Roethlisberger's lawyer has been all over the news trying to punch holes in the claim against his client meant that there would eventually be no charge.

That is, of course, until I talked to someone that is a lawyer. He asserted that Roethlisberger's lawyer is trying to tear down the case before it goes to trial. That means that Roethlisberger's lawyer is preparing for a trial. That means that there will be a charge and a trial. That's not good for Big Ben.

When you add in certain information that I have come across from people that have no reason to deceive me that indicates that the Steelers will release Roethlisberger if he is charged... it pretty much adds up to Steeler Nation envisioning a future that does not include Ben Roethlisberger.

I wish this was an April Fool's joke. I really do. I gave up playing pranks after I set every clock in the apartment ahead three hours and successfully convinced my roommate that he was late for class. He spent the next six months rearranging my movies, CDs, messing with my alarm clock, and I'm pretty sure he killed a guy, so I gave up on pranks after that.

At this point, I am fully in, "How do we replace Roethlisberger" mode. So... how do we replace Roethlisberger?
  1. The obvious (and best) solution is to look at the roster. Dennis Dixon played well on half a week's preparation against an angry hated Ravens defense, took zero sacks, and really only made one mistake. That mistake cost the Steelers the game, but I'm sure you can think of mistakes that Roethlisberger made that cost the Steelers a game. More than one, for sure. Dixon has always been in the shadow of Charlie Batch and has not been given a full offseason of snaps and practices as "the guy." With a full offseason, he could totally surprise us all. He could also fail miserably, but the 2009 season was not exactly a clinic of awesome and the 2010 season wasn't looking too brisk before all this went down, so anything above 6-10 is a win.
  2. Charlie Batch is an option, but he goes on injured reserve if you look at him wrong. The scary thing is that he's the second best option. Go Steelers!
  3. If Roethlisberger is released, the Donovan McNabb rumors will start to swirl. ESPN's John Clayton said that the Steelers aren't interested in old quarterbacks. They want someone they can grow with. McNabb will be 34 in November, so that pretty much rules him out. It really rules him out when you consider that the Eagles are looking for a top-42 pick in exchange for him in a trade.
  4. If you accept #3 as truth -- and John Clayton went to Duquesne and has mad contacts in Pittsburgh, he knew Roethlisberger's condition before the doctors at Mercy when Ben got in that motorcycle crash in 2006 -- then that eliminates retreads like Jeff Garcia, Daunte Culpepper, and Mike Vick. Byron Leftwich is a possibility, but I'm not sure he's a distinct possibility.
  5. Draft someone. I'm sure no Steeler fan wants to break in another quarterback. The other issue is that this is a two quarterback draft, with Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen, then everybody else. There is a possibility that Colt McCoy will be available, but that's not likely. That leaves Tim Tebow. Now, I have a tremendous amount of respect for Tebow for his character, faith, and college production, but I don't think he's a pro quarterback. He's kind of like Dennis Dixon if Dixon had re-learned how to throw a football two months ago. I'll take Dixon.
That basically means that we need to welcome the Dennis Dixon Era with open arms. Not sure how I feel about that, but I know it's better than the alternatives. Unless we can draft McCoy...