Thursday, April 22, 2010

Steelers First Round Draft Preview

This year, I'm doing things a little differently. Like the addict that I am, I'm taking things one day at a time. I'm doing the first round today, then 2 and 3 tomorrow, then 4-7... well, probably tomorrow after the draft, because I'm not waking up that early on a Saturday to write about guys that probably won't make the team.

This is the most interesting first round the Steelers have had in quite some time. I think that, interestingly enough, the last time there was this much intrigue surrounding the Steelers and the first round, it was 2004, the year they drafted one Ben Roethlisberger.

It's possible -- though highly unlikely -- that the Steelers will be drafting twice in the first 18 picks, which I can't remember ever happening before. The leading candidate to trade for Roethlisberger is Oakland. The Steelers, allegedly, are only talking to teams in the top ten. That means that every time a team in the top ten goes on the clock, there will be the possibility that Kaiser Goodell will come up to the podium and announce that there has been a trade and the Steelers are now on the clock.

That's 100 minutes of drama right there. Who can say that they're not interested in how it plays out.

At this point -- and, really, the horse is dead and I've been whipping it for a while, so I'll be as brief as possible -- I say get what you can for Roethlisberger and move on.
  1. If you traded Santonio for exercising poor judgment, then what kind of judgment, exactly, did Roethlisberger exercise? What's worse than poor?
  2. Santonio was facing a four game suspension, Roethlisberger has already been handed a four to six game suspension.
  3. This is not about race, this about position. This is a quarterback's league and Ben is a quarterback, Holmes isn't.
  4. Why trade Ben from a football standpoint? You already traded Holmes and he was the Super Bowl MVP, not Ben. Who won the MVP for Super Bowl XL? Yep, the receiver. Maybe Ben isn't as important as we've been led to believe.
  5. I have been preparing for the Dennis Dixon era since the middle of March. I'm ready. Let's get rid of him and move on. I'm tired of it, the Rooneys are tired of it, let someone else deal with the consequences of when he screws up again.
A lot of Steeler fans think that we got 20 cents on the dollar for Holmes. I disagree. A troubled receiver in the final year of his contract facing a four game suspension is worth... probably a fourth round pick. Brandon Marshall was worth a second round pick, but he's a way better player than Holmes and I think we need to acknowledge that and move on. Holmes is a great player and he'll be great for the Jets, but I foresee some serious Plaxico in his future and that worries me.

As far as getting the eighth overall pick from Oakland for Roethlisberger is concerned, I'm all for it. Imagine you buy a Subaru for $17,000, drive it for four years, then need to replace the transmission. Someone offers you $20,000 for it the next year. Knowing that it has a history of transmission problems... you gotta pull the trigger on that, right? Sure, you then don't have a car, but you've rid yourself of a potential problem and you're $20,000 richer. Buy a new car and move on.

Now, it looks like no one wants to pull the trigger on him. Adam Schefter said that Roethlisberger was "radioactive" earlier today. But, Kevin Colbert is a hell of a wheeler and dealer. Could be he gets something done in the top ten, especially if another team trades into the top ten and takes Jimmy Klausen off the board. Then someone who needs a franchise quarterback and still has a top ten pick, but no franchise quarterback available maybe makes a deal.

First Round Projection:

Here's the thing with the rest of the first round after Ben is either traded or not traded: There's not much suspense.

If Maurkice Pouncey is available, the Steelers will take him. He's from Florida -- Colbert loves guys from the Sunshine State that also played in Gainesville -- he's a "sure thing" and he's a center. The Steelers used to have a proud tradition at the position, but they haven't been able to replace Jeff Hartings and, really, they haven't had a great player there since Dermonti Dawson.

If Pouncey isn't there, I really don't think they draft a cornerback. If they can't get Joe Haden -- another Florida player -- they really shouldn't bother. I've said this a million times, but the Steelers cornerbacks look much better when Troy's healthy and they almost look good when the pass rush is getting to the quarterback. The success or failure of the back four depends more on how good the front seven is than the quality of players in the secondary.

If Jason Pierre-Paul is still available, we take him. He won't be, but he'd be a good pick.

There will be a run on offensive and defensive tackles like there always is, so all the top-20 guys will be gone by the time the Steelers pick. If they take an offensive or defensive tackle at 18th overall, they're reaching, pure and simple.

So, what if they trade Ben to Oakland? Do they take Clausen if he's available? Well, no. They have three quarterbacks on the roster already and they don't need to break in another rookie.

Probably, they take Haden, because he's awesome.

Possibly, they address the left tackle position and take either Trent Williams -- if he's still available, which would be a stretch -- or Anthony Davis. The only spot that makes sense to draft an offensive tackle in the first round is the top ten. The only spot where drafting a defensive tackle in the first round makes sense is in the top five.

Maybe Eric Berry is still there and they have three of the awesomest safeties in the NFL. The cool thing about drafting in the top ten is that you're guaranteed to take someone that's exciting. Yes, they may end up sucking major balls later on in their career, but they'll sure be exciting in the early going.

For a preview -- that's a preview within a preview for you meta fans out there -- of tomorrow, I originally thought that the Steelers would take Golden Tate after they traded Santonio. Well, apparently, Golden Tate is now the most overblown (maybe not a good word choice) prospect in the history of anything. So, that means he may be available early in the second round.

I've seen projections that have him going anywhere from 42-48, which is close to where the Steelers pick at 50. The Steelers have a bajillion picks, so they would be able to move up a few spots and get Tate if he makes it through the first round.

Conveniently enough, there's almost a one day break between the first round and the second round, so that would give Colbert and his trading partner plenty of time to hammer out the details.

I actually think Tate is worth the 18th pick, but if there's a way we can get both Tate and Pouncey, then I would prefer we get both.

And, even though I think Tate would be a great player -- he also would excel in the return game -- I would choose Pouncey over Tate because we have plenty of talent at receiver and we really, really need to stop treading water at the center position.

So:

With the 18th Pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers Select: Maurkice Pouncey, Center, Florida.

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