Going into the Eastern Conference playoffs, there were three things that scared me: The Washington Capitals, Da Devil, and Ryan Miller. Now that all three of those things have been eliminated from the Eastern side of the bracket, there's nothing to be afraid of.
And that's what scares me.
It's great that the Penguins seem to have that "extra gear" that they can switch to when things really matter, but I'm wondering if that switch will be harder and harder to switch as the playoffs continue, until such time as flipping the switch becomes impossible. They played a tremendous period and a half, plus overtime, against the Senators to close out that series, but I'm wondering where that intensity and focus was for most of Game 5 and Game 6. Are they going to come out in this series with everything running on all cylinders, or are they going to underestimate the Habs simply because they're the eight seed and shouldn't have gotten this far in the first place?
Let me explain this another way. I hate the movie Good Will Hunting. What annoys me about it is that Matt Damon is smarter than me, he's better looking than me, he's in far better shape than I am, he has companies throwing themselves at him and giving him opportunities that pay $200,000 a year, and he gets to bang Minnie Driver. His biggest issue -- and what makes Good Will Hunting a modern day tragedy -- is that he doesn't want to succeed. My problem with the premise is that I'm not sure how I'm supposed to feel about Matt Damon. Am I supposed to feel sorry for him? Am I supposed to root for him? Am I supposed to feel empathy for him? He's superior to me in every way. How can I feel empathy for him? I'd love to be in his position and spend the whole movie wondering why he doesn't just suck it up and live like the rest of us.
Are the Pens going to lose because they don't want to succeed? Heading into this series, you can bet that the Habs want to win this series more than the Penguins do. In the playoffs, talent matters, experience matters, match-ups matter, but the will to win is equally as important. As far as I can tell, the Penguins are superior to the Canadiens in every way. Well, I can't feel sorry for the Pens or feel empathy for them, and I've been rooting for them all my life, so that's not the issue. The problem is that they only seem to flip that switch or find that extra gear when it really matters. What seems to be escaping them is that this is the playoffs and everything matters.
It could be that they turn it on and keep it on. It could be that they struggle to eventually put the Habs away. It could also be that the Habs have too much momentum, too much confidence, and too much of an "us against the world mentality" to be dispatched as easily as the Pens would like them to be dispatched and Montreal wins. Obviously, I don't want that to happen, but if it does happen, that's how it goes down.
Now, it would be foolish to overlook the Habs just because they're the eight seed. They came back from being down three games to one against an extremely talented Capitals team that finished the regular season with the best record in the NHL. They're fast, they're smart, they have a great coach, and goaltender Jaroslov Halak is on a huge roll, having stopped 131 of the last 134 shots he's faced.
But, aside from the intangibles -- which is the biggest factor the Canadiens have going for them -- I see this series breaking down to the following factors.
Rest Factor:
If you're the Habs, here's how the 45 hours from beating the Caps to facing the Pens breaks down.
Wednesday:
10:00 p.m.: Spend some time fending off the final rush of the Capitals and celebrate like crazy when you realize you managed to beat the best team in the league on their ice after being down three games to one.
10:30 p.m.: Get to the dressing room, shower, and commence drinking.
11:00 p.m.: Find out that the NHL has just screwed your entire team in a most unholy fashion in order to get precious TV revenue and come to the horrifying realization that you need to play another road game in 44 hours against the defending champs.
11:01 p.m. to 7 a.m. Thursday: Flying, drinking, and sleeping.
Thursday:
7 a.m. to 3 p.m.: Hungover morning skate and team meetings.
3 p.m. to 7 p.m.: Fly to Pittsburgh.
7 p.m. to 11 p.m.: Some meetings, getting checked into the hotel, etc.
Friday:
7 a.m. to 5 p.m.: Morning skate, meetings, practice.
5 p.m. to 7 p.m.: Game prep.
7 p.m.: Play the defending champs on their ice.
That's a pretty daunting schedule, right? The Pens have been resting and preparing since at least Monday after they took two days off in the wake of their first round victory.
The Habs just played a brutal seven game series. They're tired. The Pens didn't and they aren't. The only thing working in Montreal's favor is that the Pens have had about as much time to prepare for them as they have to prepare for the Pens.
So, the first game is going to be sloppy and uneven as the two teams feel each other out, but the Canadiens will have to be too physically, mentally, and emotionally exhausted to win.
Talent Factor:
The Pens have way more of this than the Habs do. If all other things remain equal, there's no way the Canadiens can keep up. Then again, this was true in the series against the Capitals.
Sustainability Factor:
Halak has stopped 131 of the last 134 shots he's faced. You can't keep that kind of pace up.
The Habs killed 32 of 33 penalties in the Washington series. You can't keep that kind of pace up.
So, their goalie was on fire, their penalty kill was nearly perfect, and they still needed seven games to put the Caps away. Worse yet, they had all those things going in their favor and they were still outscored for the series 22 goals to 20.
Hey, I believe in the power of positive thinking, momentum, the "us against the world" mentality as a motivating factor, and miracles. I still don't believe the Habs are going to win.
Prediction:
Pens in five.
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