Fantasy Football Rules to Live By: 2012

I used to call this my Draft Manifesto, because I basically boosted the idea from ESPN's Matt Berry (aka The Talented Mr. Roto, or TMR for short).  Here's his Manifesto for this year.  Warning: He must get paid by the word, because he tends to ramble.  With most Berry articles, you generally need to scroll down to the fourth paragraph so you can get past him talking about his wife and kids or how this season is like the storyline of Season Two of The Wire.  Once you get to the meat of the article, it's a really good read with some insightful points, which is the case with anything TMR writes.
The basic point is that quarterbacks are now the most important players in fantasy football.  They're more reliable, they score more points, and, most importantly, there's a big difference between the top four or five guys and everyone else.  That used to be the case with running backs, which is why you needed to get a good one in the first round, especially since you start two in most leagues.  But, now there's three top tier running backs (Foster, Rice, McCoy) and a bunch of guys with question marks.  Anyone could blow up and have a huge year at any position.  Cam Newton and Victor Cruz proved that last year.  You usually want guys that are as much of a "sure thing" as possible and there are more of those -- with more consistently big numbers -- at quarterback than anywhere else.

Last year was the first year I decided to stay the hell away from certain teams altogether and that strategy worked, as I scored the most points in my league.  Last year was different in that I mostly stayed away from teams that I felt would be under-prepared following the lockout.  This year, I'm staying away from teams that I feel just flat-out suck. 

So, I'm staying the hell away from guys on these teams:

1. Jaguars (even MJD)
2. Dolphins
3. Browns
4. Seahawks
5. Titans (except Chris Johnson)
6. Colts
7. Cardinals
8. Rams

There were only six teams on my list last year (Panthers, Bengals, Browns, Vikings, Seahawks, Titans) and there are eight teams on it this year (welcome back, Titans, Seahawks, and Browns!)  The thing is that I really could think of a strong argument to include more teams on that list and I actually had trouble trimming it down to eight.  Steven Jackson and Larry Fitzgerald are dead to me in fantasy football.  That's a big step, because I used to draft at least one of them every year, then watch their talent go to waste in crappy offenses with crappy quarterbacks and crappier offensive lines.

I was way off with the Bengals and Panthers last season and Percy Harvin proved to be a really valuable wide receiver, but I was right for the most part to stay away from players on those teams.  Most of those rosters of the three carryovers have either gotten worse or younger (or both).  The Bengals and Panthers fielded some great fantasy football players with mostly young rosters, so it's tough to predict.  Tough to predict means, to me, means that someone else can take the chance with these guys and their upside.  I'm sticking with what I know.

If someone emerges from one of those teams and is available as a free agent, then I'll scoop him up in a hurry.  You may want to add them to your list of teams to avoid or you may want to make your own list.  You may think that I'm an idiot for putting the Seahawks on that list because Marshawn Lynch is totally gonna light it up this season.  You may adopt a "No Child Left Behind" policy and not discriminate against players just because they happen to collect paychecks from a certain team.  It's your team, do what you want.  The title "Rules to Live By" makes a cooler looking link and makes it sound like I'm an authority on the matter, but these are really just guidelines.

1. The first three rounds shouldn't go RB, RB, WR.

That had been my strategy for years. The idea behind taking two running backs in the first three rounds -- I'd take a receiver in the first or second round if it was a really great player -- was that you want guys that are going to touch the ball a lot. Receivers only get a shot at the ball when someone throws it to them and tight ends get thrown at less than receivers.  In fact, I just changed the title of this section to from "don't need to go RB, RB, WR" to "shouldn't go RB, RB, WR" because I don't think there are two running backs that should be taken over quarterbacks or wide receivers.

Now, pretty much everyone has a split-carry situation or they're on a team that doesn't run the ball well or doesn't run the ball much. As far as guys that are uncontested, talented players on teams that will run the ball a lot and run it well, you've got Foster, McCoy, and Rice. That's it.

But, you also have Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Calvin Johnson, Drew Brees, and Larry Fitzgerald in the top ten.  ESPN's Top 300 lists 12 non-running backs in the top 20, including a frickin' tight end.

Now, I have to say that all the tight end talk is getting a little crazy.  I'll probably be proved wrong on this, but it's what I believe.  Drafting Gronk or Jimmy Graham in the second or third round is a bad idea, because it's very difficult to figure out whether they'll be able to sustain that production from year to year.  A big part of Gronk's value last season was that scored a kajillion touchdowns.  I would assume that he'll score less than a kajillion this season.  Graham had a kajillion catches and caught a lot of people off guard.  He also had Sean Payton calling the plays.

Again, it's your team, so you can go QB, TE, WR if you want.  I just think there's a suitable substitute to be found at tight end in the later rounds.

Ultimately, if you want to get the best guy that touches the ball the most, quarterbacks touch the ball on every play. The best quarterbacks complete 65 percent of their passes. If the guy passes 40 times a game and gets ten yards a completion, that's better than Chris Johnson can get you on 20 carries.

2. Trust your cheat sheet.

Don't get cute is what I'm saying. I honestly have no idea who the 48th best receiver in fantasy football is. If you put a gun to my head and asked me to choose between Michael Turner and Frank Gore, I wouldn't be giving you a firm answer. Who knows which of those guys is better? Trust the cheat sheet.

There are tons of them available and the more reputable sites (check the link I gave above for the Top 300) are all about the same. You can tweak it when you get it into a spreadsheet or print it out, but don't get too cute. The people that compiled that cheat sheet spent way more time researching trends and stats and targets and stuff. And guess what? They're not experts, either. It mostly comes down to luck, timing, and the player themselves. Meteorologists go to school for 6-7 years and they can't predict for sure whether or not it's going to rain tomorrow.

Who the hell knows? If it's wrong, at least you can blame the cheat sheet. Especially in the first few rounds, grab the top guy on your board. You don't want to take two quarterbacks in the first two rounds -- unless your league starts two -- but best player available is a sound strategy.  This also prevents you from reaching for a quarterback just because some idiot with a blog told you that quarterbacks are all the rage this year.

As mentioned above, the running back you get in Round 6 might be as good as a Round 2 guy, so take the wide receiver if he's ranked higher. Every time I've thought I out-foxed the competition and identified a super sleeper I've had a bad season. When I've trusted the cheat sheet, I've had a good season.

3. Use the Internet.

The Internet has really leveled the fantasy football playing field to the point where it really doesn't pay to have a "special list" of guys that you're targeting in each round. Everyone is working off the same, basic list, so it's pretty easy to peg a player that you want, look at alternates if he's gone, and have a decent sense for who's going to be available when you pick next. It has streamlined everything and it has made the work that you do after the draft and during the season that much more important.

Before you take a guy, especially if you think that he shouldn't be available in a given round, do a quick Google search or use the tools available to you if your draft is online and make sure he's not hurt or suspended or pending litigation. Make sure you do that last little bit of research before you make your selection.

4. I always take my defense and my kicker in the last two rounds.

You may feel passionately about a particular kicker or a particular defense, but they fluctuate too much from year to year and, ultimately, there isn't a huge difference between the #1 defense and the #12 defense. There's less of a difference between the #1 kicker and the #12 kicker. And, more often than not, some kicker/defense comes out of nowhere each year and is available on waivers.

In one of my drafts two years ago, it was getting into the late, late rounds and I realized I hadn't picked a kicker yet.  I realized this because guys who had already filled out their roster were drafting back-up kickers.  It was an online draft, so I went to the Kickers tab and took the first guy I saw.  I thought I had it set up so that it would display the highest ranked guy first, but it was actually set to sort in alphabetical order.  I drafted a guy because his last name was lower in the alphabet.  That guy?  Matt Bryant, who was the fourth-best fantasy kicker in 2010 and scored only 15 fewer points than the number one guy (Sebastian Janikowski).

I needed to draft two defenses in 2008, so I picked them in the last two rounds.  I wound up with the Giants and the Steelers and they both scored well that season.

Additionally, the actual abbreviation for a defense is D/ST, which stands for Defense/Special Teams.  With the kickoff rules changing last season and effectively taking kickoff returns out of the equation, that makes the Special Teams side of the equation less... well, special.

I don't like to commit to a higher pick than last and next-to-last for those reasons. I think I can find some "diamond in the rough" at RB or WR, or even possibly QB. In 2008, I drafted Kurt Warner in the 14th round. If I had drafted a defense instead, I would've missed out on Warner.

5. The later rounds are for taking chances.

Trust the cheat sheet early, but if you've got a guy that you "can't believe is still out there" or, for some strange reason, think that Randy Moss is going to finally put everything behind him and start being productive, take him late. If there's a guy that you think is going to be the starter in Week 1, they just haven't announced yet, take him before you take your kicker and your defense.

If they pan out (like Warner for me), then great. If not, you'll know early on that you can cut them and not worry about it. Every year, some quarterback or receiver or running back emerges from obscurity, but no one wants to take a chance on him in Week 1. You can cut your failed experiment and pick up that guy.

6.  Someone will always want to go faster.


When I was 17 and first learning to drive, my Dad had me take about 100 miles of the stretch between LA and Las Vegas during a family trip.  That piece of road is basically the Autobahn of the west, so I was getting passed by everybody.  I sped up to about 80 because I was tired of getting passed and my Dad told me to slow down.  I said I was sick of getting passed up and that everyone else was speeding, too.  He said, "Slow down.  No matter how fast you go, there will be someone else that wants to go faster."

No matter how much research you do, how many fantasy football experts you follow on Twitter, how many Google Alerts you sign up for, someone else will want to go faster.

Don't be a slacker; do your research, perform your due diligence.  But, really, even the guys that work on this full time can't accurately predict the future.  You will miss an update and someone else will sign a guy you wanted.  There will be a number of guys that you didn't draft that end up making someone else's season.  Whatever you might win if you win the league isn't worth your job.  Just pump the brakes if you need to.


7. So, fill out your roster, get your back-ups, take a couple of long shots, then your kicker and defense.

In that order.

For IDP leagues (ones where you draft individual defensive players), here's what I usually do...

1. Draft your position guys, then draft priority defensive players, then draft back-ups, then fill in your roster.
2. But, if it's between a great back-up and a great defensive player, choose the great back-up. I've found you can pluck guys off the waiver wire without too much of a fall off.
3. Draft linebackers first and draft linebackers that get a lot of tackles. So, don't draft James Harrison or Terrell Suggs, because they'll get you 15 points one week, but .5 points the next. D'Qwell Jackson, Patrick Willis, Sean Lee, even Ray Lewis. Look at the leaders for tackles last year and target the linebackers that were at the top of that list.
4. If you can't get Troy, don't draft a safety.
5. Don't draft Revis or one of the big name cornerbacks. No one throws at those guys, so they never get any tackles. Target guys that can't cover and can't really catch... like the Steelers cornerbacks. They'll get a lot of passes defended and a lot of tackles. Also look at Cover 2 guys for the same reason, so the corners for Tampa, Chicago, Minnesota, and Indy.
6. Don't draft defensive tackles. At all. For the defensive line, draft a guy that had at least ten sacks last year. Anything that your defensive line adds is gravy after you get as much as you can from the more consistent and productive positions.

Winning the Draft Isn't the Only Thing, It's ONE Thing:

Your draft is, without a doubt, the most important single move you will make in your season.  But, it's only one move.  Say you pick up one free agent a week and there are another two guys you think about picking up, but don't.  Say you think about one trade a week and either make that trade or don't.  Say you change your line-up twice a week before it's finally set.  In a 16 game season -- hoping you make the playoffs -- that means that the draft is still #1 on the list, but it also means that the list is 97 items long.  Every move is important and every move can change your season.

You can have a great draft, but have a crappy season. You can have a crappy draft, but have a great season.  The rules listed above are super simple and pretty straightforward. I'm not the first person to think of those rules. Sure, I've adjusted over the years, but it's not rocket science. It's also mostly luck, remember that.

In 2008, my one buddy had, by all accounts, a great draft. He was able to keep a solid running back and drafted Tom Brady and Ronnie Brown, so his backfield and quarterback were set. Until Brady blew out his knee eight minutes into the season and Brown blew his out in Week 8. But, my friend still made the playoffs because he managed his team well. He dropped some guys and picked up other key guys. He made some trades. He completely overhauled his team.

My first fantasy football draft was a complete disaster. I drafted Travis Henry in the first round and Kerry Collins in the third round (after I drafted a quarterback in the second round, can't remember who that was). I still finished 7-7 because I was willing to gut my team and start over.

The next season, I came to the draft fully prepared, with last season's lessons learned.  I felt confident about my draft... and still finished 6-8.

Basically, that means your season isn't over when you finish drafting. It's not over when your star players go down with injuries. It's not over until... well, the season's over.

Don't be afraid to pull the trigger on that "breakout" free agent, even if you're sure that running back you took in the 13th round is this close to turning things around. Don't be afraid to kill your darlings.

That also means you need to stay on top of which players to pick up and which players to drop. Again, I like ESPN. They have a ton of free content on their fantasy football site. Matthew Berry is good.  Eric Karabell is solid, but he's on the conservative side.  Tristan Cockroft... I have to say I've never read one of his articles. I'm sure he's a fine analyst, but I can't get past the name.

I'm also an ESPN Insider, which is, I think, $40 a year.  There's a lot of Insider content that's useful and they also have something called The Answer Guys.  Once a week, you can ask The Answer Guys a question.  I usually ask them a line-up question -- who to start and who to bench.  If your league is big enough, that peace of mind can be worth it.  Additionally, they provide a lot of good information in the month leading up to the NFL draft, NFL free agency, and baseball's trade deadline.

Which brings us to this: Try to have some fun. You're supposed to be having fun, DAMMIT.

Steelers Preseason Game 2 Watchlist

My biggest takeaway from the first pre-season game against the Eagles is that we need the NFL officials to negotiate a contract with the NFL and come back.  The replacement officials aren't cutting it.  There were missed calls on both sides that both helped and hurt the Steelers.  The effect on the game really isn't worth arguing because it was an exhibition game, but you know how people like to ticky tack back and forth about this call or that call when the games actually count.  I'm not one to do that, regardless of how it affects the Steelers in a given game, but the fact that the replacement officials were entirely too inconsistent was driving me crazy.  So, I guess one of the things on my watchlist for this game is the officials.  I want to see if they're getting any better or not.  My guess is that they won't be any better and it will make me miss the old referees even more.

The other big thing I'll be watching is the offensive game plan.  Todd Haley mentioned a week or so ago that the entire offense is installed at this point.  That means that the largely "horizontal" passing game we saw against Philly might be what we see for the rest of the season, especially if Mike Wallace doesn't come back.  Now, I know that coordinators usually strip things down and keep things vanilla for the pre-season, but that seemed a little too stripped down and too vanilla.  If we see more of the same on Sunday night, that may be what's in store for the offense during the season.  I hope not, though I'm glad they're running more screen passes, but I guess that's why they play the games.

Other stuff I'll be watching:

1. I was not impressed with Curtis Brown and any of the back-up safeties not named Ryan Mundy.  I hope that, with a week of practice under their belts, they'll improve their overall awareness and cover their assigned areas (70 yard touchdown pass in game one was mostly Myron Rolle's fault, but Brown never should've lost track of him).
2. It looks like Keenan Lewis is now in the driver's seat for the #2 cornerback position, which means that Cortez Allen will probably get the start.  I was impressed with both of them, but I'd really like to see some consistency there.  Whoever is the starter, start getting them more reps with the first team.
3. Chris Carter looked pretty lost and slow last Thursday.  Maybe he improves, but I think a better plan is to start saying novenas that Harrison and Worilds get healthy.
4. Steve McLendon was solid in limited action against the Eagles and I want to see more of him.  Given the fact that Casey Hampton and Rashard Mendenhall just got activated off the PUP list, this seems like as good a chance as any for McLendon to show what he can do.
5. Speaking of guys that will get a chance to show what they can do, Baron Batch and Jonathan Dwyer are both going to get a lot of touches with Mendenhall and Redman not available and I'm excited to see how the perform running behind the first- and second-team offensive lines.  I've said all along that I think Batch is really just Verron Haynes, Jr; a guy that can carry here and there but is mostly a third down back.  If he can be an every down guy or at least looks a lot better than he did against Philly (which shouldn't be difficult), then that would make me less nervous about the running back position.  The fact that Mendenhall was taken off the PUP list doesn't make me less nervous.  It makes me think they're going to test him a little, find that he's not anywhere near ready, and put him on IR.  I'm thinking that about Big Snack, too, which is why they should put McLendon in there as much as possible.
6. Mike Adams can't possibly be as bad as he looked against the Eagles.  He played poorly, then got hurt, which is not an auspicious way for a guy to begin his career.  I'd like to see him play a bunch of snaps against the Colts, but I honestly don't think he's going to secure the starting job.  He's too far behind and the coaching staff loves Max Starks too much.
7. I think DeCastro is going to do just fine and he'll open the season at right guard, but I'd still like to see him get a lot of snaps and work out some of the kinks.  
8. Both rookies looked great in the running game, which makes me think that Pouncey has some work to do yet on line calls.  The past two seasons, he was mostly surrounded by guys that had been there longer than him and already knew what to do.  That's probably not going to be the case this season and he needs to step up.
9. They need to get the ball to Chris Rainey eight times on offense.  He may lose eight yards on the first seven touches, but he could also break that eighth touch for a 60 yard touchdown.  The guy is explosive and I want to see more of him and how he works in different personnel groupings, especially against the opponent's first team defense.
10. Dear God: Please no injuries to Roethlisberger and Leftwich.  Thanks.

That's it.  Game's on Sunday night football on NBC.  Pre-season football... feel the excitement!

Buccos Update: Might Be Time to Panic

My friend Dan is an aspiring Pirates fan, but he doesn't know a lot about baseball.  He never followed it while he was growing up and the Pirates haven't given any reason to learn the game since he moved to Pittsburgh.  The last two seasons, I've been teaching him different things about baseball in general and about the Buccos specifically.

Every day this month, he's asked me the same question: Is it time to panic yet?  I keep answering that, no, it's not time to panic, because it's a long season and we still have a lot of baseball yet to play.  After the Pirates fell to the Dodgers 11-0 on Tuesday night, he texted me and asked if it was time to panic.  I said yes.  I would still feel a sense of panic even if the Buccos had won last night and the fact that they didn't isn't helping my sense of panic.

I hate to say that any game is a must-win with so much baseball left to play (45 games remaining), but I have to say that I think today's game is a must-win situation.  Winning today won't turn the season around necessarily -- Cutch and James McDonald are still slumping, everyone in the lineup still strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough, the bullpen has been shaky, they're not hitting for power like they were in June and July -- but it will help them remember what it's like to win.

Coming into the current home stand, they knew they were going to face a higher level of competition than they did coming out of the All-Star, but they still had 11 games at home and they had been playing exceptionally well at PNC Park.  They're 3-7 through the first ten games and, really, the only bright spot was that nine run outburst in the bottom of the fourth on Sunday (I was there for that and it was awesome).  They've played 13 straight games and have seven more in a row staring them in the face.

This is a team that's used to losing.  Clint Hurdle has done a good job of creating the skeleton of a winning mindset and veteran AJ Burnett has bailed this team out of a slide on a number of occasions already this season.  But, the skeleton Hurdle has constructed is still pretty young and fragile and Burnett's only one guy.  The Dodgers are awfully good and they've looked very formidable thus far in this series.

It's a big obstacle to overcome and I don't know if this team is up to the challenge.  A win today won't save the season, but I really believe that a loss will make an already panicked fan base seriously start to lose interest (it's almost football season, after all). 

They need to remember what it's like to win.  They need something to make them feel good about the upcoming road series against the Cardinals and Padres (who really should've swept the Buccos last weekend).  They need something to keep them from collapsing like they did last season.

But... I don't think they have it in them.  And that makes me nervous.  Panicked, even.

'We Got This,' my ass.

Another season of Arena Football is in the books, and we have our new League Champion. After 6+ weeks of bragging, strutting, posturing and assurances, the highest scoring team in Arena history had hubris bite them right in the ACL.

Coming into this game, Philly looked to be in the driver seat. Although they had a comparatively soft schedule compared to Arizona, the Soul had rolled the whole season, holding an impressive average margin of victory and scoring more than 60 points a game. Receiver depth that barely even hiccuped by the loss of Tiger Jones and a quarterback that seemed unflappable. However, it was all for naught, as Philly seemed to not show up for the Arena Bowl.

Right from the get-go, the Rattlers put the Soul on notice when they deferred and gave them the ball first...only to quickly pick it off and give them the chance to score first in both halves. Sure enough, they quickly reached the end zone and put 7 up on the board. Things just went downhill from there.

Normally, takeaways are Philly's thing. However, in this game, the Rattlers defense came up with all three of the game, leaving Davila perfect on the night. Final stats were 23/30, 266 yards , 9 touchdowns and zero picks. Dirty Dan, on the other hand, became the only QB in Arena history to throw 3 picks in a single half.

Another point of interest was the kicker, Scaccia. Last week, I expected him to be a mess due to lack of recent experience and the fact that he wasn't that great to begin with. However, he proved me wrong by drilling his kicks all night. However, he struggled a lot more in the Arena Bowl, and it cost his team.

By the second half, the Soul threw caution to the wind. With Scaccia floundering, Raudabaugh unable to get things going and the Soul down 27-13, they changed tactics. They started on-siding it almost every kickoff and going for two on every touchdown. It was a bold strategy, and one that can work, but in this case didn't.

In the end, the Soul came up short, and Coach Plank goes 0-5 in Arena Bowls. On the other hand, Nick Davila got redemption for coming up short in the final seconds of last year's game. Also, the Rattlers got their first ring since 1997, after losing four appearances in the intervening years. Finally, Maurice Purify set a new AB record with seven touchdowns, putting the Ratts firmly in the winners circle.

Seriously - is there anything sadder than a pouting Jaws and two angry nuns?

So what the heck happened to the greatest team in Arena History? I really think that it just came down to nerves and inexperience. The Soul hadn't faced the crucible that the Rattlers did to get to the Arena Bowl. Instead, they faced a fairly soft schedule that allowed them to believe that they couldn't be beat when it counts. Don't get me wrong - their ability, talent, coaching and players were a step above, but they didn't have the humility that Arizona was forced to swallow this season and last. They arrived in New Orleans thinking that it was their destiny to win. When the Ratts took the ball away from them on their first play, I think it got in their heads, they lost a step and never got it back.

If Philly secured the core of this team again for next year, then I think they have a good shot of not only going back, but pulling it off. After all, losing a hard one can be just what you need to go back and take it for yourself.

Just ask Arizona.

Thank you for reading my columns this season, and I look forward to getting back to it again in the spring. In the meantime, stay tuned for ongoing NFL coverage from Mister Keller as the outdoor league kicks into gear. In the meantime, I will sit in my easy chair saying, "The field...it's too frickin' big!!!"

Steelers Preseason Game 1 Watchlist

For the most part, the preseason is a bunch of meaningless games that try to determine, once and for all, whose third team defensive end is better than whose fourth team offensive tackle.  But, there are some things to watch for in every game and not just when the starters are on the field (though that's mostly what to watch for).

Here's what I'll be watching:

1. Because I keep meaning to write something about Mike Wallace and keep not doing so, here's what I think: Until he reports to camp, nothing's going to happen with his contract.  I keep hoping that this situation will work out like it did with Hines Ward back in the day.  Both sides hem and haw and dig their feet into the ground until one side-- always the player, never the team -- relents, reports, and begins negotiating.  Until that happens, the coffee table in my living room knows about as much about what's going on as anyone else.  I really hope it happens, because Wallace is the only guy the Steelers have on offense that scares defenses.  Sanders, Brown, Heath, Redman, they're all great guys and good players, but they don't scare anyone.  For this offense to be really productive, I think they need a guy who scares people.
2. There has been a lot of talk thus far about Mike Adams and David DeCastro struggling in practice.  They're both going to be starting tonight, so I want to check them out and see if they struggle in games when it really matters.  Well, it doesn't really matter matter tonight, but it matters more than practice.
3. Chris Rainey.  He had some issues fielding kicks cleanly in practice, but everyone's also talking about how fast and explosive he is.  I want to see how fast he looks when other people are chasing him and really trying to catch him.  I'm excited about Rainey this season.  I think he adds a scary element to the offense.  If he's the guy that scares defenses, we still need Wallace, though.  Rainey will only be able to scare them for 10-12 plays a game.  Wallace scares them for the entire game.  Having both makes them... well, it makes them scarier.
4. With James Harrison and Jason Worilds both on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, Chris Carter starts tonight at Harrison's position.  I'd like to see how he does against Philly's first team and how he stands up to the challenge.  Hopefully, he'll play angry and show the NFL Hall of Fame voters that he belongs in Canton.
5. It sounds like Cortez Allen has the inside track to the second cornerback job opposite Ike Taylor.  I'll have a close eye on Allen, but I'm also curious to see how Keenan Lewis and Curtis Brown look.  Lewis had the inside track on that job before camp started and Brown was a dark horse candidate to grab it.  The popular theory is that, whoever loses the competition, the Steelers win.  They'll have a solid #2 guy and depth at the #3 and #4 depth chart positions.  My theory -- until I see them in-game -- is that when you have three guys fighting for a job, you have no guys that are worthy of the job.  If you need further evidence of this, look at the three guys fighting for the starting quarterback job in Seattle.
6. I think the Steelers took a pretty big step forward on special teams last season.  I want to confirm that wasn't a fluke.

As things stand right now, the optimism I was feeling after the draft is waning.  I assume that Wallace will be back in the line-up when the season starts, but I don't know that he will and I also don't have many valid reasons upon which to base that assumption.

The offensive line is new and it's younger, but I have no idea if that translates to them actually being better.  I have to see for myself, but the reports I've been hearing from camp haven't inspired me with confidence.

The defense is another year older and I actually think the overall talent level on defense has improved, but I also think that they need to stay 100% healthy this season to match last season's success.  And, with all the guys they have on the wrong side of 30 and the fact that no defense in the history of ever has gone a full season without anyone getting hurt, I don't see them staying 100% healthy, so I'd really welcome a chance to see the third defensive end, because he might be starting by the end of the year.

I'm excited for kickoff, I'm looking forward to the upcoming season, but I'm also anxious as hell.

Playoffs Round Two Review, Arena Bowl Preview

Due to happenings with two other professional teams in town, we decided to combine this week's posts into one. Another round is in the books, and the teams for the championship are set. Let's take a look at how we got here

Sharks at Soul
In many ways, I think that the Sharks/Soul can be summed up with this picture:

Now, if you can't tell, that's a nun. On a motorcycle. With pom-poms. Driven by a guy with a cowboy hat.

I'm sorry, but if that's how your team takes the field, you more than have home field advantage - you have all the advantages. Every one of them. You, in fact, have the right to brag, "We got this." And in that, Philly was set. The Sharks were never in this game. They had the first touchdown, but everything was downhill from there. Capz shanked the extra point waaaaay right, and something seemed wrong. The ensuing kickoff looked more like a botched squib-kick than a kickoff, and then it came out - he had a pulled MCL. That was it for the quarter. By the end of the half, they'd only have 12 points to Philly's 45.

Look, I can recap the play-by-play, but it would just make everyone - including the Soul - sad. By the end of the game, they were trying to not score 100 points. These stats speak for everything: Three picks, three forced and recovered fumbles, a turnover on downs. The Philly defense barely let the Sharks on the field. Standing out on defense was our own LaRico Stevenson, who did a little bit of everything, including seven tackles and a pick six (Have I mentioned that I miss him?)

On offense, it was the Larry Brackens show. Coming into this game, he had about twenty catches on the season. By the end, he had almost half that many touchdowns. He recorded a team record 8 - a record formerly held by Captain Morgan with six last year against us.

Also interesting was the fact that Scaccia - whom I assumed would be weak compared to Capz - was practically flawless on the night, including on a field goal, which Philly rarely does. Someone was obviously practicing in the off/on season.

I don't know if it was that the Soul is really that much better than the Sharks, if Jacksonville was out of gas, or if they were just having an off night. Whatever it was, the Soul practically had a bye week to get to the championship.

Blaze at Rattlers

This was, perhaps, the best game I watched all season. This was the tie-breaker for this season between these two teams, and the team who wanted to win needed to make a statement, and the Ratts certainly did that. First drive, they scored on the back of old, reliable Odie Armstrong, rumbling in for the score, 40 yards out. On the Blaze's first possession, the Ratts snagged a quick pick six. After the Blaze got on the board, the Ratts had to settle for a field goal - a drive that would haunt them in the second half.

They were back in it on their next drive, and then their defense came up big by sacking Grady for a safety. Undeterred, the Blaze pulled off a picture-perfect onside kick to mitigate the damage. The swing came at the end of the half when they got a pick and the offense took the field. Now, the refs say that Ed Ta'amu had possession on a short pass from Grady for the score, but I have my doubts. Regardless, this put the Blaze up by two. Remember that FG? Yeah, that gave them 3 instead of 7, putting the Ratts in this position.

Most of the remainder of the game would see the Ratts unable to get back those two points and constantly pass the Blaze and then fall back again as touchdowns were exchanged. This would go on all half, setting up the old Arena axiom of, "He who has it last, has it best."

In the waning seconds of the game, the Blaze held the ball near paydirt, with a 69-67 lead. The Ratts defense came up big by holding them to 4th down and then picking Grady in the end zone with but 35 seconds left. A steady drive brought them down to their end zone with only 16 left. Davila passed to Purify and took the lead. Those two points that haunted them all game? They decided to make a statement and get them back with a successful conversion. The nine seconds left just weren't enough for the Blaze, and the Ratts won, 75-69.


Arena Bowl XXV

So, what can we expect late Friday night? A coin flip. After that, everything is just conjecture and wishful thinking. In my opinion, there are few problems with how professional football playoffs work (don't get me started on college), but one of them is separate trees for each conference. The way this works out, only the best two teams of their conference go to the championship, not necessarily the best two teams in the league. Look at it this way - what if the Soul had a bad night, and the Sharks advanced to rematch with the Ratts? Would that be the best two teams? Hell no. You only needed to watch last week's game to know that.

However, this year, the best two teams in the league are meeting for the big game. The Soul are there by virtue of just rolling over everything in their path. They had a misstep in their first game of the season, but from there established a path of destruction through the American Conference that couldn't be stopped. A great quarterback with a corps of receivers so deep that they once put a backup in who was barely over five foot and still dominated. Tiger Jones even got picked up by the Eagles, and the Soul moved through that loss with barely a hiccup.

The Rattlers, on the other hand, rose to the top through a Darwinian battle for supremacy that saw a conference battle - not just a division one - for seeding that went down to the last week of the season. Nick Davila and crew held some gas in the tank in the unimportant games and put the pedal down when they needed to. A number of this crew went to the big game last year, and they obviously had the drive to go again. They don't have the stand-out, NFL bait that the Soul does, but they have a solid, reliable offense that works well together to get results and a defense to be reckoned with.

Friday night is going to be brutal. Can the Rattlers bring home a win like the days of old and banish last year's heartbreaking loss, or will they ever be the bride's maid? Do the Soul, in fact, "got this," or will hubris finally catch up with them? The truth is, I don't know.

My gut says that the Soul is going to pull this out, as I've been saying for months (but I'll be rooting for the Ratts.) They are a more explosive team, their offense is deadly and their defense is frightening. The Rattlers have a powerful team in their own right, and I can't underestimate the "been there, done that" factor, but I just think that the Soul has more weapons in their arsenal. The big factor is going to be nerves. Dirty Dan has been fairly unflappable this season, but Championships - especially on the road - get in people's heads their first time out. Also, I just can't shake the feeling that they've been swaggering to broadly for the last six weeks or so (See: The Patriot's "19-0.")

Plus, they don't get to bring the nuns and motorcycles to New Orleans.

Playoffs, Round Two Preview

Time for the Semi-Final round of this year's Arena League playoffs. I sucked hard at calling last week's games, but frankly, that's what happens when the 8 best teams in the league take the field in a do-or-die situation. Anything can happen.

Of course, that means this week will be even worse.

Sharks at Soul
This game will be the tale of two teams - on both sides of the ball. It's all going to depend on who shows up. The Sharks have been up and down all season, and have some glaring weakness. There's the fact that Morris screws up under pressure and they are Power-like in their inability to play four quarters. A number of times this season, they've blown huge leads in the fourth to lose. Even last week they did that, but held on long enough for a miracle kick by Capz.

On the plus side, they've put together a late season winning streak to get them to the penultimate game. Bernie Mo has only been picked twice in recent memory and has done a good job of holding on to the ball. Furthermore, the Sharks boast the second and third best rushers in a pass-happy league - one of which is none other than Mo himself. And then there's Capz. The fact is, they have the weapons if they know how to use them.

The Soul, on the other hand, have been a nearly unstoppable juggernaut this year, but they played a sloppy, sloppy game last week. Penalties, poor execution and lackluster performance kept the Voodoo in the game way longer than they should have been. They've also lost their kicker Remy Hamilton to a groin injury, which is never good.

Of course, they're still the Soul. While the Sharks have rusher #2 and #3, Philly's got #1 in Derrick Ross. They also still have Captain Morgan and Jeff Hughley. They also have one of the best turnover defenses in the league.

So how will it shake out? We'll start with kicking, because it may be big. For the Sharks, Capozzoli is money. We know that. He's clutch at PATs, FG and most importantly, kickoffs. If he can drill the latter under the cross-bar (like he did to us) he can stick the Soul with crappy field position. Taking Hughley's returns out of the equation would be a major coup. Granted, Dirty Dan can get them out of that situation - but why spot them 15-20 yards if you don't have to?

For the Soul, losing Hamilton last week was ugly. They don't have a backup and even had LaRico Stevenson kicking off, and it showed. It gave the Voodoo a lot of ground to work with. Well, that couldn't continue, so rumors this week had them looking at one Massimo Scaccia. Rumors were close, because they went with his brother Fabrizio. Now, if we can all stop sniggering at the unlikeliness of these names, let's look at his ability. He kicked for a season and change for the Rattlers, but he kinda sucked at field goals and hasn't played in a year. No, the Soul don't go for many FGs, but that's still a hole. Also, he's rusty as all get out. Giving Terrance Smith a chance to return will result in the reverse of what I said above.

Regular on-field stuff is fairly straight forward. The Soul is the better team and should run all over the Sharks. Raudabaugh is one of the elites, and his arm is accurate. He also has all the play-makers he's had all season. Their defense is brutal against most teams, and could prove awfully deadly against Bernie Mo. Furthermore, the Soul isn't a team a team to run out of gas against in the late game.

Bottom line is that the Soul should win this one assuming they don't play sloppy. The thing is, I can't shake the feeling after last week that their constant "We Got This" posts on their FaceBook page are going to amount to hubris.

This game airs Friday night on the NFL network.

Blaze at Rattlers

The above game is going to prove easy to call next to this one.

Had the Ratts beat them twice, I would say with confidence after last week that they'd lose the third match-up. However, they've split the series so far. Strangely enough, the Ratts win was on the road, and they picked Grady a whopping four times. At home, they got thwumped (and picked twice.)

For the second week in a row, the Blaze's victory hopes hinge on defense. Last week, they and the Talons fought each other to a standstill, and that decided the game. Two top-flight quarterbacks were shut down on their respective sides of the ball. There's no reason to believe that the Blaze can't do it again this week, and if the Ratts want to win, they've already seen that this is what they will have to do.

The Blaze has, at times, let Grady take a beating, and not a little of it came at the hands of the Rattlers. They shored up their line a bit in the second match-up, but the fact is, the Ratts know how to get to him. Arizona's offensive line on the other hand, only allowed nine sacks in the regular season. Therefore, the Blaze has their work cut out for them. Their better chance is to go for the picks, which Davila is prone to. He takes risks, and they backfire sometimes. Also, I've noticed that AZ has a thing for onside kicks. They're good at recovering them, but if the Blaze return team is ready for them, they can pick up a few extra possessions.

If the defense just pounds themselves silly, and the O line holds, these two QBs should be able cut loose. The league released their first and second All-Arena lineups this week. While the Soul have but two players on there and the Sharks none, the Blaze and Rattlers account for a total of seven players on these lists. Because of that, I predict a higher score than the Blaze put up last week in this one. I will be rooting for the Ratts, but I have a feeling that the Blaze might pull this one off. They played just too hard last week, while the Ratts played their regular explosive game. The "have to" didn't seem to be there.

That's right, I'm back

So, that being said, I really don't know on this one. I called both these teams to lose last week, and neither did. Therefore, I hesitate to bet against either one here. I am, however, restating the fact that I think the Blaze can take it and go face the Soul in Arena Bowl XXV.

So, look forward to the Sharks and Rattlers heading to NOLA next week for a rematch.

This game airs Saturday at ten with full play-by-play coverage on www.cox7.com