Monday, August 29, 2011

Fantasy Football Rules to Live By: 2011


This season, I kinda came to the party late, because I wasn't sure if there was going to be football.  Football is now back, which means Fantasy Football is back.

I used to call this my Draft Manifesto, because I basically boosted the idea from ESPN's Matt Berry (aka The Talented Mr. Roto, or TMR for short).  Here's his Manifesto for this year.  Warning: He must get paid by the word like he said, because he tends to ramble.  With most Berry articles, you generally need to scroll down to the fourth paragraph so you can get past him talking about his girlfriend or how this season is like the time Prince changed his name to a symbol.  With this one, I think he doesn't start the actual analysis until the 3,000th word, so be prepared.  Once you get to the meat of the article, it's a really good read with some insightful points, which is the case with anything TMR writes.

Basically, it boils down to this: No one has any real idea what's going to happen this season.  Everyone has potential and everyone has holes.  I believe that Adrian Peterson is now the default Number One because he's not hurt (Arian Foster) and he's not in a contract dispute (Chris Johnson).  And, that's fine.  If you have the first overall pick, I think it's really difficult to go wrong.  Take the guy you like best and go from there.

Overall, my strategy is going to be to take guys that have been in a system for at least a year and to stay away from guys that are on a team that changed coaches or changed key personnel in the offseason.  You generally want to stay away from teams like that anyway and a truncated offseason has made that strategy even more sound.  Like TMR says, the idea is to try to avoid risk and go for the guys that get the ball the most.  If a guy doesn't have the ball, he can't score points.  For that reason, fantasy drafts have historically been running back heavy in the first couple of rounds.  But, the game is changing and you need to adjust.

So, I'm staying the hell away from guys on these teams:

  1. Panthers.
  2. Bengals.
  3. Browns.
  4. Vikings (except Peterson).
  5. Seahawks.
  6. Titans (except Chris Johnson, and maybe even him).
If someone emerges from one of those teams and is available as a free agent, then I'll scoop him up in a hurry.  I just think that there have been too many changes in those franchises and they just look too shaky.  For some reason, I still trust Denver for fantasy purposes.  I still think Kyle Orton, Brandon Lloyd, and Knowshon Moreno will get their numbers.  You may want to add them to your list of teams to avoid or you may want to make your own list.  You may adopt a "No Child Left Behind" policy and not discriminate against players just because they happen to collect paychecks from a certain team.  It's your team, do what you want.  The title "Rules to Live By" makes a cooler looking link and makes it sound like I'm an authority on the matter, but these are really just guidelines.


1. The first three rounds don't need to go RB, RB, WR.

That had been my strategy for years. The idea behind taking two running backs in the first three rounds -- I'd take a receiver in the first or second round if it was a really great player -- was that you want guys that are going to touch the ball a lot. Receivers only get a shot at the ball when someone throws it to them and tight ends get thrown at less than receivers.

So, it went great running backs on teams that run a lot, then guys that get the ball a lot on teams that run the ball OK, then guys that get most of the carries and can maybe catch the ball. After that, you were left with a grab bag of guys that split carries, specialty backs that did well on third downs, guys that were going to get the ball a lot but played on crappy teams that couldn't run the ball, and back-ups.

Now, pretty much everyone has a split-carry situation or they're on a team that doesn't run the ball well or doesn't run the ball much. As far as guys that are uncontested, talented players on teams that will run the ball a lot and run it well, you've got Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Rashard Mendenhall. And guess what? Those are six of your top fantasy football running backs in some order.

But, you also have Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick, Andre Johnson, and even potentially Roddy White in the top ten.  ESPN's Top 300 lists eight non-running backs in the top 20.

The reason for this is that there are those top six guys, then a hodgepodge of dudes that have some question mark or red flag attached to them. Just like in the real draft, the more red flags you have, the lower you get picked. Those quarterbacks and receivers have fewer red flags than the running backs that used to be selected ahead of them.

Also, teams are passing more nowadays because it's easier for them to pass than it is to run. So, now you've got those three BIG quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady, then you've got a pretty nice second tier of guys. The thing is that any of them could blow up at any time, so there's less risk (because teams are passing so much guys will get their stats and quarterback rating isn't factored into the scoring for almost all fantasy sites) and tons of upside (since you could snag the next Matt Schaub).

Then you've got Peyton Manning, who could be a huge steal if you draft before any real news is released about his neck injury.

There's this huge cluster of guys that could all do well or all get hurt and screw you, so there's no tremendous difference between the seventh ranked running back and the 18th ranked running back. That means that no one will scoop all of them up at once and you'll have your pick of the cluster. Even after the cluster, there are some guys that will be great fill-ins or trade material late.

The point is that there are more questions than answers at running back at this point and you generally take guys in the early rounds that are more "sure things" and there are more "sure things" at quarterback and receiver right now. After the top-tier guys, it gets a little murky, so a lot of fantasy football players are going to pull the trigger on the sure thing so they don't get stuck with a guy with a bunch of red flags. They can always pull a timeshare running back off the pile and hope their big-time QB or WR bails them out most weeks.

Plus which, if you want to get the best guy that touches the ball the most, quarterbacks touch the ball on every play. The best quarterbacks complete 65 percent of their passes. If the guy passes 40 times a game and gets ten yards a completion, that's better than Chris Johnson can get you on 20 carries.

2. Trust your cheat sheet.

Don't get cute is what I'm saying. I honestly have no idea who the 48th best receiver in fantasy football is. If you put a gun to my head and asked me to choose between Darren McFadden and Peyton Hillis, I wouldn't be giving you a firm answer. Who knows which of those guys is better? Trust the cheat sheet.

There are tons of them available and the more reputable sites (check the link I gave above for the Top 300) are all about the same. You can tweak it when you get it into a spreadsheet or print it out, but don't get to cute. The people that compiled that cheat sheet spent way more time researching trends and stats and targets and stuff. And guess what? They're not experts, either. It mostly comes down to luck, timing, and the player themselves. Meteorologists go to school for 6-7 years and they can't predict for sure whether it's going to rain tomorrow.

Who the hell knows? If it's wrong, at least you can blame the cheat sheet. Especially in the first few rounds, grab the top guy on your board. You don't want to take two quarterbacks in the first two rounds -- unless your league starts two -- but best player available is a sound strategy.

As mentioned above, the running back you get in Round 6 might be as good as a Round 2 guy, so take the wide receiver if he's ranked higher. Every time I've thought I out-foxed the competition and identified a super sleeper I've had a bad season. When I've trusted the cheat sheet, I've had a good season.

3. Use the Internet.

The Internet has really leveled the fantasy football playing field to the point where it really doesn't pay to have a "special list" of guys that you're targeting in each round. Everyone is working off the same, basic list, so it's pretty easy to peg a player that you want, look at alternates if he's gone, and have a decent sense for who's going to be available when you pick next. It has streamlined everything and it has made the work that you do after the draft and during the season that much more important.

Before you take a guy, especially if you think that he shouldn't be available in a given round, do a quick Google search or use the tools available to you if your draft is online and make sure he's not hurt or suspended or pending litigation. You should know that Wes Welker just hurt his neck, but you don't need to. It's on the Internet. Use it. Make sure you do that last little bit of research before you make your selection.

4. I always take my defense and my kicker in the last two rounds.

You may feel passionately about a particular kicker or a particular defense, but they fluctuate too much from year to year and, ultimately, there isn't a huge difference between the #1 defense and the #12 defense. There's less of a difference between the #1 kicker and the #12 kicker. And, more often than not, some kicker/defense comes out of nowhere each year and is available on waivers.

In one of my drafts last year, it was getting into the late, late rounds and I realized I hadn't picked a kicker yet.  I realized this because guys who had already filled out their roster were drafting back-up kickers.  It was an online draft, so I went to the Kickers tab and took the first guy I saw.  I thought I had it set up so that it would display the highest ranked guy first, but it was actually set to sort in alphabetical order.  I drafted a guy because his last name was lower in the alphabet.  That guy?  Matt Bryant, who was the fourth-best fantasy kicker in 2010 and scored only 15 fewer points than the number one guy (Sebastian Janikowski).

I needed to draft two defenses in 2008, so I picked them in the last two rounds.  I wound up with the Giants and the Steelers and they both scored well that season.

Additionally, the actual abbreviation for a defense is D/ST, which stands for Defense/Special Teams.  With the new kickoff rules taking away at least 20 percent of kickoff returns, that makes the Special Teams side of the equation less... well, special.

I don't like to commit to a higher pick than last and next-to-last for those reasons. I think I can find some "diamond in the rough" at RB or WR, or even possibly QB. In 2008, I drafted Kurt Warner in the 14th round. If I had drafted a defense instead, I would've missed out on Warner.

5. The later rounds are for taking chances.

Trust the cheat sheet early, but if you've got a guy that you "can't believe is still out there" or, for some strange reason, think that this is Ike Redman's year, take them late. If there's a guy that you think is going to be the starter in Week 1, they just haven't announced yet, take him before you take your kicker and your defense.

If they pan out (like Warner for me), then great. If not, you'll know early on that you can cut them and not worry about it. Every year, some quarterback or receiver or running back emerges from obscurity but no one wants to take a chance on him in Week 1. You can cut your failed experiment and pick up that guy.

6.  Someone will always want to go faster.


When I was 17 and first learning to drive, my Dad had me take about 100 miles of the stretch between LA and Las Vegas during a family trip.  That piece of road is basically the Autobahn of the west, so I was getting passed by everybody.  I sped up to about 80 because I was tired of getting passed and my Dad told me to slow down.  I said I was sick of getting passed up and that everyone else was speeding, too.  He said, "Slow down.  No matter how fast you go, there will be someone else that wants to go faster."

No matter how much research you do, how many fantasy football experts you follow on Twitter, how many Google Alerts you sign up for, someone else will want to go faster.

Don't be a slacker; do your research, perform your due diligence.  But, really, even the guys that work on this full time can't accurately predict the future.  You will miss an update and someone else will sign a guy you wanted.  There will be a number of guys that you didn't draft that end up making someone else's season.  Whatever you might win if you win the league isn't worth your job.  Just pump the brakes if you need to.


7. So, fill out your roster, get your back-ups, take a couple of long shots, then your kicker and defense.

In that order.

For IDP leagues (ones where you draft individual defensive players), here's what I usually do...

  1. Draft your position guys, then draft priority defensive players, then draft back-ups, then fill in your roster.
  2. But, if it's between a great back-up and a great defensive player, choose the great back-up. I've found you can pluck guys off the waiver wire without too much of a fall off.
  3. Draft linebackers first and draft linebackers that get a lot of tackles. So, don't draft James Harrison or Terrell Suggs, because they'll get you 15 points one week, but .5 points the next. Brian Cushing (if he's not suspended), Patrick Willis, that middle linebacker for the Jets, even Ray Lewis. Look at the leaders for tackles last year and target the linebackers that were at the top of that list.
  4. If you can't get Troy don't draft a safety.
  5. Don't draft Revis or one of the big name cornerbacks. No one throws at those guys, so they never get any tackles. Target guys that can't cover and can't really catch... like the Steelers cornerbacks. They'll get a lot of passes defended and a lot of tackles. Also look at Cover 2 guys for the same reason, so the corners for Tampa, Chicago, Minnesota, and Indy.
  6. Don't draft defensive tackles. At all. For the d-line, draft a guy that had at least ten sacks last year. Anything that your d-line adds is gravy after you get as much as you can from the more consistent and productive positions.
Winning the Draft Isn't the Only Thing, It's ONE Thing:

Your draft is, without a doubt, the most important single move you will make in your season.  But, it's only one move.  Say you pick up one free agent a week and there are another two guys you think about picking up, but don't.  Say you think about one trade a week and either make that trade or don't.  Say you change your line-up twice a week before it's finally set.  In a 16 game season -- hoping you make the playoffs -- that means that the draft is still #1 on the list, but it also means that the list is 97 items long.  Every move is important and every move can change your season.

You can have a great draft, but have a crappy season. You can have a crappy draft, but have a great season.  The rules listed above are super simple and pretty straightforward. I'm not the first person to think of those rules. Sure, I've adjusted over the years, but it's not rocket science. It's also mostly luck, remember that.

In 2008, my one buddy had, by all accounts, a great draft. He was able to keep a solid running back and drafted Tom Brady and Ronnie Brown, so his backfield and quarterback were set. Until Brady blew out his knee eight minutes into the season and Brown blew his out in Week 8. But, my friend still made the playoffs because he managed his team well. He dropped some guys and picked up other key guys. He made some trades. He completely overhauled his team.

My first fantasy football draft was a complete disaster. I drafted Travis Henry in the first round and Kerry Collins in the third round (after I drafted a quarterback in the second round, can't remember who that was). I still finished 7-7 because I was willing to gut my team and start over.

The next season, I came to the draft fully prepared, with last season's lessons learned.  I felt confident about my draft... and still finished 6-8.

Basically, that means your season isn't over when you finish drafting. It's not over when your star players go down with injuries. It's not over until... well, the season's over.

Don't be afraid to pull the trigger on that "breakout" free agent, even if you're sure that running back you took in the 13th round is this close to turning things around. Don't be afraid to kill your darlings.

That also means you need to stay on top of which players to pick up and which players to drop. Again, I like ESPN. They have a ton of free content on their fantasy football site. Matthew Berry is good.  Eric Karabell is solid, but he's on the conservative side.  Tristan Cockroft... I have to say I've never read one of his articles. I'm sure he's a fine analyst, but I can't get past the name.

I'm also an ESPN Insider, which is, I think, $40 a year.  There's a lot of Insider content that's useful and they also have something called The Answer Guys.  Once a week, you can ask The Answer Guys a question.  I usually ask them a line-up question -- who to start and who to bench.  If your league is big enough, that peace of mind can be worth it.  Additionally, they provide a lot of good information in the month leading up to the NFL draft, NFL free agency, and baseball's trade deadline. 

Which brings us to this: Try to have some fun. You're supposed to be having fun, DAMMIT.

No comments:

Post a Comment