The basic point is that quarterbacks are now the most important players in fantasy football. They're more reliable, they score more points, and, most importantly, there's a big difference between the top four or five guys and everyone else. That used to be the case with running backs, which is why you needed to get a good one in the first round, especially since you start two in most leagues. But, now there's three top tier running backs (Foster, Rice, McCoy) and a bunch of guys with question marks. Anyone could blow up and have a huge year at any position. Cam Newton and Victor Cruz proved that last year. You usually want guys that are as much of a "sure thing" as possible and there are more of those -- with more consistently big numbers -- at quarterback than anywhere else.
Last year was the first year I decided to stay the hell away from certain teams altogether and that strategy worked, as I scored the most points in my league. Last year was different in that I mostly stayed away from teams that I felt would be under-prepared following the lockout. This year, I'm staying away from teams that I feel just flat-out suck.
So, I'm staying the hell away from guys on these teams:
- Jaguars (even MJD)
- Dolphins
- Browns
- Seahawks
- Titans (except Chris Johnson)
- Colts
- Cardinals
- Rams
I was way off with the Bengals and Panthers last season and Percy Harvin proved to be a really valuable wide receiver, but I was right for the most part to stay away from players on those teams. Most of those rosters of the three carryovers have either gotten worse or younger (or both). The Bengals and Panthers fielded some great fantasy football players with mostly young rosters, so it's tough to predict. Tough to predict means, to me, means that someone else can take the chance with these guys and their upside. I'm sticking with what I know.
If someone emerges from one of those teams and is available as a free agent, then I'll scoop him up in a hurry. You may want to add them to your list of teams to avoid or you may want to make your own list. You may think that I'm an idiot for putting the Seahawks on that list because Marshawn Lynch is totally gonna light it up this season. You may adopt a "No Child Left Behind" policy and not discriminate against players just because they happen to collect paychecks from a certain team. It's your team, do what you want. The title "Rules to Live By" makes a cooler looking link and makes it sound like I'm an authority on the matter, but these are really just guidelines.
1. The first three rounds shouldn't go RB, RB, WR.
That had been my strategy for years. The idea behind taking two running backs in the first three rounds -- I'd take a receiver in the first or second round if it was a really great player -- was that you want guys that are going to touch the ball a lot. Receivers only get a shot at the ball when someone throws it to them and tight ends get thrown at less than receivers. In fact, I just changed the title of this section to from "don't need to go RB, RB, WR" to "shouldn't go RB, RB, WR" because I don't think there are two running backs that should be taken over quarterbacks or wide receivers.
Now, pretty much everyone has a split-carry situation or they're on a team that doesn't run the ball well or doesn't run the ball much. As far as guys that are uncontested, talented players on teams that will run the ball a lot and run it well, you've got Foster, McCoy, and Rice. That's it.
But, you also have Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Calvin Johnson, Drew Brees, and Larry Fitzgerald in the top ten. ESPN's Top 300 lists 12 non-running backs in the top 20, including a frickin' tight end.
Now, I have to say that all the tight end talk is getting a little crazy. I'll probably be proved wrong on this, but it's what I believe. Drafting Gronk or Jimmy Graham in the second or third round is a bad idea, because it's very difficult to figure out whether they'll be able to sustain that production from year to year. A big part of Gronk's value last season was that scored a kajillion touchdowns. I would assume that he'll score less than a kajillion this season. Graham had a kajillion catches and caught a lot of people off guard. He also had Sean Payton calling the plays.
Again, it's your team, so you can go QB, TE, WR if you want. I just think there's a suitable substitute to be found at tight end in the later rounds.
Ultimately, if you want to get the best guy that touches the ball the most, quarterbacks touch the ball on every play. The best quarterbacks complete 65 percent of their passes. If the guy passes 40 times a game and gets ten yards a completion, that's better than Chris Johnson can get you on 20 carries.
2. Trust your cheat sheet.
Don't get cute is what I'm saying. I honestly have no idea who the 48th best receiver in fantasy football is. If you put a gun to my head and asked me to choose between Michael Turner and Frank Gore, I wouldn't be giving you a firm answer. Who knows which of those guys is better? Trust the cheat sheet.
There are tons of them available and the more reputable sites (check the link I gave above for the Top 300) are all about the same. You can tweak it when you get it into a spreadsheet or print it out, but don't get too cute. The people that compiled that cheat sheet spent way more time researching trends and stats and targets and stuff. And guess what? They're not experts, either. It mostly comes down to luck, timing, and the player themselves. Meteorologists go to school for 6-7 years and they can't predict for sure whether or not it's going to rain tomorrow.
Who the hell knows? If it's wrong, at least you can blame the cheat sheet. Especially in the first few rounds, grab the top guy on your board. You don't want to take two quarterbacks in the first two rounds -- unless your league starts two -- but best player available is a sound strategy. This also prevents you from reaching for a quarterback just because some idiot with a blog told you that quarterbacks are all the rage this year.
As mentioned above, the running back you get in Round 6 might be as good as a Round 2 guy, so take the wide receiver if he's ranked higher. Every time I've thought I out-foxed the competition and identified a super sleeper I've had a bad season. When I've trusted the cheat sheet, I've had a good season.
3. Use the Internet.
The Internet has really leveled the fantasy football playing field to the point where it really doesn't pay to have a "special list" of guys that you're targeting in each round. Everyone is working off the same, basic list, so it's pretty easy to peg a player that you want, look at alternates if he's gone, and have a decent sense for who's going to be available when you pick next. It has streamlined everything and it has made the work that you do after the draft and during the season that much more important.
Before you take a guy, especially if you think that he shouldn't be available in a given round, do a quick Google search or use the tools available to you if your draft is online and make sure he's not hurt or suspended or pending litigation. Make sure you do that last little bit of research before you make your selection.
4. I always take my defense and my kicker in the last two rounds.
You may feel passionately about a particular kicker or a particular defense, but they fluctuate too much from year to year and, ultimately, there isn't a huge difference between the #1 defense and the #12 defense. There's less of a difference between the #1 kicker and the #12 kicker. And, more often than not, some kicker/defense comes out of nowhere each year and is available on waivers.
In one of my drafts two years ago, it was getting into the late, late rounds and I realized I hadn't picked a kicker yet. I realized this because guys who had already filled out their roster were drafting back-up kickers. It was an online draft, so I went to the Kickers tab and took the first guy I saw. I thought I had it set up so that it would display the highest ranked guy first, but it was actually set to sort in alphabetical order. I drafted a guy because his last name was lower in the alphabet. That guy? Matt Bryant, who was the fourth-best fantasy kicker in 2010 and scored only 15 fewer points than the number one guy (Sebastian Janikowski).
I needed to draft two defenses in 2008, so I picked them in the last two rounds. I wound up with the Giants and the Steelers and they both scored well that season.
Additionally, the actual abbreviation for a defense is D/ST, which stands for Defense/Special Teams. With the kickoff rules changing last season and effectively taking kickoff returns out of the equation, that makes the Special Teams side of the equation less... well, special.
I don't like to commit to a higher pick than last and next-to-last for those reasons. I think I can find some "diamond in the rough" at RB or WR, or even possibly QB. In 2008, I drafted Kurt Warner in the 14th round. If I had drafted a defense instead, I would've missed out on Warner.
5. The later rounds are for taking chances.
Trust the cheat sheet early, but if you've got a guy that you "can't believe is still out there" or, for some strange reason, think that Randy Moss is going to finally put everything behind him and start being productive, take him late. If there's a guy that you think is going to be the starter in Week 1, they just haven't announced yet, take him before you take your kicker and your defense.
If they pan out (like Warner for me), then great. If not, you'll know early on that you can cut them and not worry about it. Every year, some quarterback or receiver or running back emerges from obscurity, but no one wants to take a chance on him in Week 1. You can cut your failed experiment and pick up that guy.
6. Someone will always want to go faster.
When I was 17 and first learning to drive, my Dad had me take about 100 miles of the stretch between LA and Las Vegas during a family trip. That piece of road is basically the Autobahn of the west, so I was getting passed by everybody. I sped up to about 80 because I was tired of getting passed and my Dad told me to slow down. I said I was sick of getting passed up and that everyone else was speeding, too. He said, "Slow down. No matter how fast you go, there will be someone else that wants to go faster."
No matter how much research you do, how many fantasy football experts you follow on Twitter, how many Google Alerts you sign up for, someone else will want to go faster.
Don't be a slacker; do your research, perform your due diligence. But, really, even the guys that work on this full time can't accurately predict the future. You will miss an update and someone else will sign a guy you wanted. There will be a number of guys that you didn't draft that end up making someone else's season. Whatever you might win if you win the league isn't worth your job. Just pump the brakes if you need to.
7. So, fill out your roster, get your back-ups, take a couple of long shots, then your kicker and defense.
In that order.
For IDP leagues (ones where you draft individual defensive players), here's what I usually do...
- Draft your position guys, then draft priority defensive players, then draft back-ups, then fill in your roster.
- But, if it's between a great back-up and a great defensive player, choose the great back-up. I've found you can pluck guys off the waiver wire without too much of a fall off.
- Draft linebackers first and draft linebackers that get a lot of tackles. So, don't draft James Harrison or Terrell Suggs, because they'll get you 15 points one week, but .5 points the next. D'Qwell Jackson, Patrick Willis, Sean Lee, even Ray Lewis. Look at the leaders for tackles last year and target the linebackers that were at the top of that list.
- If you can't get Troy, don't draft a safety.
- Don't draft Revis or one of the big name cornerbacks. No one throws at those guys, so they never get any tackles. Target guys that can't cover and can't really catch... like the Steelers cornerbacks. They'll get a lot of passes defended and a lot of tackles. Also look at Cover 2 guys for the same reason, so the corners for Tampa, Chicago, Minnesota, and Indy.
- Don't draft defensive tackles. At all. For the defensive line, draft a guy that had at least ten sacks last year. Anything that your defensive line adds is gravy after you get as much as you can from the more consistent and productive positions.
Your draft is, without a doubt, the most important single move you will make in your season. But, it's only one move. Say you pick up one free agent a week and there are another two guys you think about picking up, but don't. Say you think about one trade a week and either make that trade or don't. Say you change your line-up twice a week before it's finally set. In a 16 game season -- hoping you make the playoffs -- that means that the draft is still #1 on the list, but it also means that the list is 97 items long. Every move is important and every move can change your season.
You can have a great draft, but have a crappy season. You can have a crappy draft, but have a great season. The rules listed above are super simple and pretty straightforward. I'm not the first person to think of those rules. Sure, I've adjusted over the years, but it's not rocket science. It's also mostly luck, remember that.
In 2008, my one buddy had, by all accounts, a great draft. He was able to keep a solid running back and drafted Tom Brady and Ronnie Brown, so his backfield and quarterback were set. Until Brady blew out his knee eight minutes into the season and Brown blew his out in Week 8. But, my friend still made the playoffs because he managed his team well. He dropped some guys and picked up other key guys. He made some trades. He completely overhauled his team.
My first fantasy football draft was a complete disaster. I drafted Travis Henry in the first round and Kerry Collins in the third round (after I drafted a quarterback in the second round, can't remember who that was). I still finished 7-7 because I was willing to gut my team and start over.
The next season, I came to the draft fully prepared, with last season's lessons learned. I felt confident about my draft... and still finished 6-8.
Basically, that means your season isn't over when you finish drafting. It's not over when your star players go down with injuries. It's not over until... well, the season's over.
Don't be afraid to pull the trigger on that "breakout" free agent, even if you're sure that running back you took in the 13th round is this close to turning things around. Don't be afraid to kill your darlings.
That also means you need to stay on top of which players to pick up and which players to drop. Again, I like ESPN. They have a ton of free content on their fantasy football site. Matthew Berry is good. Eric Karabell is solid, but he's on the conservative side. Tristan Cockroft... I have to say I've never read one of his articles. I'm sure he's a fine analyst, but I can't get past the name.
I'm also an ESPN Insider, which is, I think, $40 a year. There's a lot of Insider content that's useful and they also have something called The Answer Guys. Once a week, you can ask The Answer Guys a question. I usually ask them a line-up question -- who to start and who to bench. If your league is big enough, that peace of mind can be worth it. Additionally, they provide a lot of good information in the month leading up to the NFL draft, NFL free agency, and baseball's trade deadline.
Which brings us to this: Try to have some fun. You're supposed to be having fun, DAMMIT.
Good stuff
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