Penguins Playoff Primer

I meant to write this earlier, but I had to do all kinda work at work today, so that got in the way. I think I will be able to get this posted before the game starts tonight, so either I'll look super brilliant or super dumb.

Either way, I won't look lazy, so that's good.

If we're just looking at the Ottawa series, I think we'll win. I actually think we'll win in five, maybe six if Fleury comes out of the gate sluggish.

I think this because:

1. Something tells me we won't fall flat on our faces and embarrass ourselves in our Cup defense. I think we win at least one series.
2. Ottawa doesn't scare me.
3. At this point, the Pens are the "grizzled veteran" team and experience matters in the first round.
4. Talent also matters and the Pens have more of that than the Senators do.
5. The Pens are better than their seeding and Ottawa is not.

But, after this series, things get really, really scary.

1. The Capitals scare the hell out of me. Strangely, I feel as though we can beat them in a seven game series even though we weren't able to beat them (not once) this year. I have no data to back that up, it's a pretty dumb thing to say, and it's just a feeling, but I feel strongly about it.
2. The Devils scare the hell out of me. They also have Marty Brodeur. That's a bad combination as far as the Pens' chances of repeating are concerned.
3. Including the regular season, the postseason, and the Olympics, the Pens stars have played in roughly 8,414 games since April 2008. They're young, they're talented, but they also have an upward limit of how hard they can play and how much they can skate around before they lose their edge. In the playoffs -- especially as the stakes get higher -- you need that edge. They were good enough to squeak by an overpowered Islanders team (twice) at the end of the season, but I think that they can't sustain that for 28 games. You can only win so many hockey playoff games on balls and determination. I think that number is approximately six, which is why the Pens win this series, but probably lose the next one.
4. Fleury has looked about as comfortable in net as a priest at a swinger's party since the first of the year, so that's not good. It's not like he'll wake up tomorrow and forget how to play hockey, but the margin for error at the goalie position -- particularly in the playoffs -- is so slim that you can't think about it too much, you just need to react. When Fleury is playing with confidence, he just reacts and later on reflects on how many great plays he made. When he's not, he thinks too much, he doubts himself, and that millisecond of doubt puts him out of position just enough to make the difference between a stop and a goal.
5. Flat out, the power play sucks. There are ways around the mass suckage -- more on this in a moment -- but there's only so much whiskey and lipstick that can make this pig look appealing.
6. Even if the Pens manage to make it out of the Eastern Conference, they'll probably have to face the Blackhawks. The Blackhawks scare me more than the Capitals or the Devils. If it's not the Blackhawks, it'll be the Red Wings... and a three-peat of that match-up both bores me and scares me. In any event, I don't like it, so it belongs on this list.

All that having been said, we definitely get out of the first round, then who the hell knows.

1. Maybe the Blackhawks and Red Wings get knocked out in the West.
2. Maybe the Devils and the Capitals get knocked out in the East.
3. Maybe the power play comes back to life because Malkin and Crosby are put on every power play shift and Kennedy and Guerrin come back to life. That would help, but everyone needs to play with more desperation and intensity on the power play and that's not something you can necessarily coach.
4. Maybe Fleury returns to his Stanley Cup form and closes the door on the competition.
5. Maybe the other talented goalies in both brackets start to come unglued, just like Tim Thomas, Cam Ward, and Semyon Varlamov -- and to some extent Chris Osgood -- did last postseason.

That's a lot of maybes. But, we do have some things working in our favor.

1. That Marc-Andre Fleury, he's no slouch, despite his inconsistency.
2. Still have two of the best players on the planet.
3. Anyone can get hot and run the table... provided they get really, really hot after those first couple of series are out of the way. If the Pens can get to the Eastern finals, then look out. All the guys that went to two straight Cup finals will start to smell it and turn up the intensity. And Fleury will come around and maybe the power play fixes itself... but that's if we get past that second series.
4. The defense is much better this year than it was last year, even at the height of their awesomeness in the Carolina series.
5. The penalty kill has been outstanding and it is super super super duper important to have a great penalty kill in the playoffs.
6. We still scored over 100 points and narrowly missed the #2 seed. We're better than a #4, but we still have lots of holes.
7. We were the #4 seed last season. Just saying.

That's seven (really six) things that we have going for us, which is nice. But, I think the fact that the Capitals are the better team, the Blackhawks loom, and that our big-time guys are more tired than they're letting on is going to mean we fall short of another Cup this year.

But, in case I hadn't mentioned this previously, we won the Stanley Cup last year. So I'm fine with falling short this year. With this team, these guys, and the guys that will be in place for years to come, we'll be back.

Maybe it's not our year. Maybe it is.

Is there anyone else out there that can't wait to find out? I know I sure can't.