TGIT: Browns at Steelers Preview

If you're reading this to see if I think the Steelers will win, I think the Steelers will win.  As a matter of fact, you could also read this and this, since both Weidman and I both picked them this week.

As far as my confidence level is concerned, I have to say I'm extremely confident that the Steelers will win.  I know this only servers to jinx them, but, as I see it, three pairs of severe events need to occur for the Browns to win this game:

1. Cleveland scores a defensive touchdown AND a special teams touchdown.
2. Cleveland's defense shuts the Steeler offense AND they force several turnovers, causing them to start a number of drives in Steeler territory.
3. Pat Schurmur would need to show a willingness to throw the ball deep AND Colt McCoy would need to show some ability to complete deep passes.

I think that any one event in any one pair could happen, but not both.  If only one event in one pair happens, the Steelers win.  I also think the pairs are mutually exclusive, meaning that 1 and 2 can't happen together (or 1 and 3 or 2 and 3), since that would mean the Browns played a perfect game and I don't see that happening.

Cleveland isn't only facing history and a tougher opponent, there are also fundamental mismatches in terms of the strengths and weaknesses of the two teams and how they approach the game.

The Browns have a solid pass defense, but their run defense is awful, allowing an average of 151 yards per game.  They just gave up 290 rushing yards to Baltimore.  Pittsburgh's game plan on offense is this:

Establish the run and... oh, wait.  The running game isn't working.  I guess we should try to pass the ball a little more, especially on first down.  If that doesn't work, then go to the shotgun and/or no huddle.  If we build a lead, we establish the run and grind out the clock.

Thus far this season, the pass-run differential is 60-40, which means that establishing the run hasn't worked out so well and they needed to start throwing a lot.  If they're able to run the ball effectively -- which they should be able to do against a crappy run defense like Cleveland's -- then that sets up their whole offense, opens up play action, and makes the attack balanced.  When they've been able to establish the run early, they've been very successful.  The Browns offense has been horrendous all year, so they won't be able to outscore a balanced Steeler offense.

Unless Arians decides to change up the game plan -- it's rare, but it has happened -- things are set up so that all the Steelers need to do is play their game and they'll win. 

Cleveland is averaging only 14.5 points per game and the most points they've scored in any game is 20.  The only reason they've won four games -- and the reason they haven't been blown out much -- is because their defense is keeping them in games.  They beat Seattle 6-3, they beat Jacksonville 14-10, they beat Miami 17-16, they hung in there against the Rams and 49ers, and the Bengals needed a comeback victory two weeks ago. 

At some point, though, the defense is going to give up.  Yes, they're all professionals and they all have a job to do.  They're also people and people get tired of bailing out their coworkers time and time again only to watch Bob from operations try to fix the fax machine by scooping ice cream into it.  Maybe they keep fighting this week because the Steelers are still a big rival for them.  Maybe they finally start mailing it in in the second half.  Maybe it happens next week or in Week 16, but it's going to happen.  We can only hope it starts tonight.

On defense, the Steelers want to stop the run, pressure the quarterback, and keep everything in front of them.  I think they'll be able to do the first two, but playing too much zone against the Browns will give them space to operate underneath.  They only throw the ball underneath, so you can't give them space to operate there.  Dick LeBeau has show a willingness to play more man coverage this season, starting with the game against the Patriots in Week 8 (side note: I never want to write "Patriots game" because it reminds me of the movie).  If he keeps everyone in tight, McCoy doesn't have the arm strength or the weapons to beat them deep and Peyton Hillis and Chris Ooomagooma don't have the long speed to break a big run.

Now, I'm not saying that all the Steelers have to do is show up and they'll win.  Showing up is only the first step, with the other step being that they need to play like they play when they play.  If they stick to what has worked for them and avoid any of those catastrophic pairs, then they've got this one.

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Browns 13