Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Keller's Picks, Week 11

(Click here to see current NFL Pick Em Standings -- week-by-week and YTD.)

Well, I got crushed again last week, but I called Seahawks over hated Ravens and went 4-2 in swing games.  I am officially on the Bears bandwagon and that large crashing sound you heard was me jumping off the bandwagons of the Lions, Panthers, and Bills.  I thought that would give me three sure-fire wins this week.  Then I discovered that the Panthers play the Lions.  Ah, well.  On with the picks.

NY Jets at Denver:
Don't get me wrong, I'm all about the Football Jesus.  I just don't think he has enough miracles in him to beat an angry and cornered Jets team.  Home field isn't an advantage for the Broncos at this point in the season and I think the Broncos are just bad enough on defense to make the Jets look good.  They looked pretty crappy on Sunday night, so this is no small feat.

Buffalo at Miami:
Yes, I'm aware that I said I was off the Bills bandwagon.  But, they've struggled recently because they've been playing decent-to-good pass defenses and Ryan Fitzpatrick's QBERT rating plummeted as a result.  The Dolphins pass defense is awful, so he gets back on track this week.

Cincinnati at Baltimore:
This is the second week in a row that the Bengals draw an opponent that lost a craptastic, frustrating game the week before.  This is the second week in a row that the Bengals will lose to that opponent.  But... the line's a little crazy (Baltimore -7), so take Cincy if you're picking on spreads.

Jacksonville at Cleveland:
Honestly, I have no idea.  I really should take the home team, but I'm tired of picking the Browns and then finding out they did something dumb to blow the game.  This one could end in a 0-0 tie, unless there's a defensive touchdown.

Oakland at Minnesota:
The Vikings are favored by one, which confuses the hell out of me.  I know that Run DMC is probably out for this game, but he's been out for a few weeks.  I checked around to see if Minnesota was able to clone Jared Allen and Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson, but Google said no.  I also checked to make sure that Carson Palmer was still alive and he is.  I have no idea why a 5-4 team working on 11 days rest would be underdogs to a 2-7 team that got destroyed on Monday Night Football.

Carolina at Detroit:
Stupid bandwagon widows playing each other the week after I jump off.  Seriously, I should be able to take this one off the board.  When in doubt, take the home team.

Tampa at Green Bay:
That Aaron Rodgers, he's a good football player.  Did you know that the gestation period of an elephant is 22 months?  I just wanted to add something else here to make it look like I did my homework.

Dallas at Washington:
Redskins lost by 11 points to Miami last week and the Cowboys destroyed the Bills.  Washington may be the worst team in the league and they decided to go back to Rex Grossman to try to jump start the offense.  Any time that Sexy Rexy is your game changer, you have serious, serious problems.

Arizona at San Francisco:
Steelers West is going to crush me again with another improbable road win this week.  I can feel it.  Still, it would be super dumb to actually pick against the 49ers.

Seattle at St. Louis:
I hate picking the Rams.  I really do.  But, they followed up their upset of the Giants with a 6-3 loss to Cleveland.  I think the "crazy upset then crapping the bed on the road" trend continues.

Tennessee at Atlanta:
Oh, great.  Two of the most schizophrenic teams in the league are playing each other.  Not sure which version of which team is going to show up on either side, but Atlanta's home.  Where they choked big time against the Saints in Week 10.  I hate this game.

San Diego at Chicago:
YEAH!  GO BEARS! WOOOOOOOOOOOO!  *checks to make sure he has a clear path to exit bandwagon*

Philadelphia at NY Giants:
I know Eli and company lost at San Francisco last week, but I think they might be the second best team in the NFC.  The Eagles are... not so much.  They lost at home to Steelers West last week.  That's just embarrassing.  I'm all about betting against the Dream Team at this point.

Kansas City at New England:
Hey, so, never bet against Tom Brady.  The moneyline for this game is KC +720.  I wonder how they feel about that.  Like, are they depressed?  Motivated?  Constipated?  I'll go with the last two, but taking the points might not be a bad idea.

Line of the Week:
I'm all in on the Chicago bandwagon (Chicago -3.5).  I think they win by a touchdown, even if they don't dismantle the Chargers like they did the Lions.

Moneyline of the Week:
Bills (+111) over Dolphins.  That's the "upset" that I'm the most comfortable with.  Both teams are taking on water, but Buffalo has more buckets.

Over/Under of the Week:
Dallas at Washington (41.5, OVER).  I think the Cowboys might score 42 points all by themselves, so this is easy money.

NY Jets over Denver
Buffalo over Miami
Baltimore over Cincinnati
Jacksonville over Cleveland
Oakland over Minnesota
Detroit over Carolina
Green Bay over Tampa
Dallas over Washington
San Francisco over Arizona
St. Louis over Seattle
Atlanta over Tennessee
Chicago over San Diego
NY Giants over Philadelphia
New England over Kansas City

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