Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Keller's Picks, Week 12

(Click here to view NFL Pick Em standings, week-by-week and YTD.)

I lost a game on my lead to Weidman last week, so I need to get it right this week.  There's a full slate of games every week from here on out.  This is where the season will be won or lost.

Green Bay at Detroit:
I'm picking the Packers until they lose and I jumped off the Lions bandwagon last week.  I think Rodgers and Green Bay keep rolling.

Miami at Dallas:
The Dolphins are on a roll of late and Matt Moore's QBERT rating has spiked considerably in the past three weeks, but they're still not good enough to beat the Cowboys at Dallas.

San Francisco at Baltimore:
This is a tough one.  Short week for both teams and the 49ers have to travel to the east coast.  But, it's a night game and I have a feeling that San Francisco can out-ugly just about anyone, including the hated Ravens.  I just hope I can watch this game, listen to all the Harbaugh Bowl talk, and not punch someone in the face.  That would make the remainder of my Thanksgiving visit a little uncomfortable.

Buffalo at NY Jets:
I hate to take the Jets, because they're awful.  But, they did manage to beat the Bills in Buffalo earlier this season and Ryan Fitzpatrick's QBERT rating has been declining at a geometric rate since Week 6.  Sanchize isn't much better, but he's good enough and he's at home.

Cleveland at Cincinnati:
The Browns are a terrible team, the Bengals are better than anyone thought they could be coming into the season, and they're beyond pissed off after dropping back-to-back games to the Steelers and hated Ravens.  I think they roll.  That line can't get high enough.

Houston at Jacksonville:
I know that Matt Leinart is a pretty crappy quarterback that hasn't had a decent QBERT rating since his last year at Southern Cal.  The trouble is that the Jags couldn't beat Cleveland last week and their run defense leaves a lot to be desired.  I think Leinart pulls a Griese, attempts eight passes, and Ben Tate and Arian Foster get 100 yards each.

Carolina at Indianapolis:
This is a shaky pick, but I jumped off the Panthers bandwagon last week, it worked, and I need to stick with that.  Plus which, Indy is coming off a bye and they're at home.  They can't finish 0-16, can they?  Don't answer that.

Tampa at Tennessee:
I'm not saying the Titans are the 2011 Packers.  This is more a vote of no-confidence in Tampa.  Matt Hasselbeck should start and Tennessee is good enough to actually remember to tackle LeGarrett Blount, which is where the Packers went wrong yesterday.

Minnesota at Atlanta:
Adrian Peterson may not play and the Falcons have a tough run defense.  Also, the Vikings suck.

Arizona at St. Louis:
Two craptastic teams and a lot of questions usually means take the home team.  I can't do that because the Rams are craptastic squared and may not win another game the rest of the season.

Chicago at Oakland:
Sure, this might look like a dumb pick, but consider:

  1. The Raiders have only won two games at home.
  2. I'm still on the Bears bandwagon.
  3. My buddy Keith says that Caleb Hanie is a combination of Football Jesus and Joseph Smith, which is good enough for me.  I think the offense might actually improve with him at the helm.  Then again, I hate Jay Cutler with the burning passion of a thousand dying sons, so my judgement may be clouded.
Washington at Seattle:
Seahawks play well at home and the Redskins are a total mess.  On the field, off the field, in Victorian England, it doesn't matter.  They'd lose to a 19th century soccer team, is what I'm saying.

New England at Philadelphia:
Just when you think the Patriots are dead, they rise from the ashes.  Just when you think the Dream Team is turning things around, they crap the bed.  Don't bet against Tom Brady and don't bet for Michael Vick/Less Emotionally Stable Michael Vick.

Denver at San Diego:
I have been converted to the First Church of Football Jesus.  The Chargers are overrated and Tebow just wins.  They'll find a way to lose this game and he'll find a way to win.  That's what he does, he wins football games.  And Tebows.  And solves the national debt crisis.

Steelers at Kansas City:
More details to follow for the full-on game preview, but anyone who watched the Chiefs on Monday night should not question this pick.

NY Giants at NOLA:
There's a really good chance that a desperate Giants team could pull the upset on the road, but the Saints are at home and they're coming off a bye.  I am not in the business of betting against Sean Payton when he's had two weeks to prepare for an opponent and two weeks to get his entire backfield healthy (start Mark Ingram).

Line of the Week:
Bengals (-9) over Browns.  Like I said, that line can't get big enough.  I think Cincy wins by at least two touchdowns.

Moneyline of the Week:
Denver (+243) over San Diego.  Yeah, Football Jesus!  (I'm totally breaking up with you if you lose this game).

Over/Under of the Week:
Washington at Seattle (37.5, UNDER).  Two bad offenses, two underrated defenses.  When in doubt, always take the under in a Seahawks game.

Green Bay over Detroit
Dallas over Miami
San Francisco over Baltimore
NY Jets over Buffalo
Cincinnati over Cleveland
Houston over Jacksonville
Indianapolis over Carolina
Tennessee over Tampa
Atlanta over Minnesota
Arizona over St. Louis
Chicago over Oakland
Seattle over Washington
New England over Philadelphia
Denver over San Diego
Steelers over Kansas City
NOLA over NY Giants


  1. Just say no to Mark Ingram. Yes to Haniemania.

  2. Great week looks like you picked up a game on Weidman