Wednesday, November 02, 2011

Keller's Picks, Week 9

Click here to view the current Pick Em Standings (week-by-week and YTD)

Last week wasn't fantastic, but I managed to go 1-1 in swing games and maintain my lead over Weidman.  I have not, however, had much luck with the Over/Under of the Week or Line of the Week.  So... maybe don't bet heavy on those and just stick to the Moneyline of the Week, which has been fairly consistent.

I need a big week this week so that I can (hopefully) pull away from the competition.

Atlanta at Indianapolis:

Law of averages says that the Colts should win eventually, but I don't see it happening this week.  The bummer part is that Indy doesn't play Miami this season, so we're going to miss out on the Andrew Luck Bowl.

Tampa at NOLA:

The Saints are angry after losing to the Rams last week, Tampa is overrated, and the fact that the Bucs are coming off a bye doesn't really scare me.  The fact that Tampa beat NOLA earlier this year doesn't scare me.  Drew Brees and that offense playing with something to prove scares me.

Cleveland at Houston:

The Texans seem to understand that they just need to keep it together, win the winnable games, and survive the season without choking.  The Browns don't seem to understand that you need to score points to win games.  I'd take the points on this one (Browns +10.5), but it's not my line of the week.  I think Cleveland hangs in there and the Texans slowly put them away.

NY Jets at Buffalo:

I can't say that I'm really sold on the Bills, but I'll also say that I'm not sold on the Jets.  If it was just a matter of quarterbacks-versus-pass-defenses, then I'd take the Jets.  But, the Jets haven't shown that they can run the ball effectively, the Bills have shown that they can, and the New York run defense is pretty suspect.

Miami at Kansas City:

KC has come back in a big way and they're also catching some breaks (like they did in overtime on Monday night).  They're at home and the Dolphins are the second worst team in the league.

San Francisco at Washington:

Hello, worst team in the league!  Yes, the 3-4 Redskins are worse than the 0-7 Dolphins and the 0-7 Colts.  They're a mess on both sides of the ball.  I'm super glad that I divested my fantasy team of all Redskins in Week 3.

Seattle at Dallas:

My faith in Dallas is waning, but I have zero faith in the Seahawks without Tavaris Jackson.  Charlie Whitehurst has a negative QBERT rating and Pete Carroll is finally starting to show why he should've stayed in school.

Denver at Oakland:

Carson Palmer has been re-united with TJ Houshmanzadeh.  Championship!  But seriously, folks.  Football Jesus isn't going to be able to miracle his way out of this one, either.

Cincinnati at Tennessee:

I'm sick of picking against the Bengals.  If I had picked them every week this year, I think I'd be like 95 games over .500.  Also, their defense is scary good, this Andy Dalton kid isn't half bad, and the Titans are starting to fall apart.  At least they managed to beat the hated Ravens before they realized they suck.

St. Louis at Arizona:
In a classic, "When in doubt, pick the home team" situation, I'm going with the road team.  Vegas isn't touching it and the lines that actually exist show Steelers West by 3.  The Rams showed me more on Sunday than the Cardinals did.  I think Sam Bradford comes back, Steven Jackson has a big day, and Kevin Kolb doesn't finish the game (which leaves some dude named Skeleton, I think).

NY Giants at New England:

Tom Brady has won, like, 815 consecutive (regular season) games at home, they just came off a tough loss, and I think Justin Bieber was a toddler the last time the Patriots lost two in a row.  I know it's a re-match of Super Bowl XLII and the Giants won that game (18-1!  18-1!  18-1!), but don't get cute.

Green Bay at San Diego:

Something about an undefeated team traveling multiple time zones after a bye to face a cornered team on the road makes me nervous.  Then I remember that the Chargers are overrated and Aaron Rodgers is really, really good.  Nervousness gone.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh:

Can't see the hated Ravens sweeping the (regular season) series.  I think they're different teams than they were in Week 1.  I don't think one team blows out the other.  It will be a close game.  In that situation, I trust the home team and the quarterback with two rings.

Chicago at Philadelphia:

I'm not buying into the fact that the Dream Team is finally coming together and that they will cut a path of destruction through the rest of the league, but I will definitely take Mike Vick at home in prime time.  Also, don't get cute.  Also also, when in doubt, trust the home team.

Line of the Week:

49ers (-3.5) at Washington.  The Redskins are awful, the 49ers are not, the 9ers are 3-0 in 1 p.m. games on the East Coast this season, and the Redskins are AWFUL.  Did I mention that the Redskins are awful?

Moneyline of the Week:

Cincy (+127) at Tennessee.  It's time to believe in the Bengals.  Or, at least, it's time to take advantage of the fact that Vegas still doesn't believe in them.

Over/Under of the Week:
Jets at Bills (44, OVER).  Something tells me this turns into a shootout, which means you should take the Under.

Atlanta over Indy
NOLA over Tampa
Houston over Cleveland
Buffalo over NY Jets
Kansas City over Miami
San Francisco over Washington
Dallas over Seattle 
Oakland over Denver
Cincinnati over Tennessee 
St. Louis over Arizona
New England over NY Giants
Green Bay over San Diego
Pittsburgh over Baltimore
Philly over Chicago 

No comments:

Post a Comment