Let's Do This: Hated Ravens at Steelers Preview

Heading into Sunday night's game, there is only one thing I know for sure: The Steelers won't get blown out like they did in Week 1.  Other than that, I am not sure about anything.

I don't think it will be a high-scoring affair.  I don't think the Steelers will blow the hated Ravens out and that makes me sad.  I think the Steelers can (and will) win this game, but I don't know that for sure.  There will be no Flacco Jersey bets this year. 

Well, I guess I know two other things for sure: I know that I'm very excited for the game and I know what they need to do to win.  Just like with the Patriots, it's pretty easy to figure out how to beat Baltimore.  The actual execution is the difficult part.

Don't Turn the Ball Over:

This is kind of a general thing, but it was certainly overlooked on opening day.  It's true that the Steelers have turned the ball over 13 times and the hated Ravens have forced 16 turnovers.  But, if you take into account that seven of those turnovers/takeaways came in the first game, the Steelers have only given the ball up six times in seven games and Baltimore has only taken it away nine times in six games.  That's still a big number for the HR, but they had four more takeaways against the Jets, which means five in five games. 

Um... Let's just keep with, "Don't turn the ball over."

Since the Steelers can't seem to force any turnovers this year, they'll need to hang onto the ball to win.  Turning it over once probably means losing the turnover battle and that can't happen.

Contain Ray Rice:

This has the second lowest easy-to-type/difficult-to-execute ratio.  Rice is an elusive, explosive, athletic player that has great vision, catches the ball well, and is tough to bring down.  We saw that first hand in Week 1 and pretty much throughout his career.  Like with Maurice Jones-Drew, there's no real way to completely shut him down; you just need to limit the damage he does.

The defensive line has been much better in terms of gap discipline and attacking the line of scrimmage the last five games, so that's part of the solution.  The fact that LaMarr Woodley and James Farrior probably won't play is a big problem.  If the d-line can get him moving east-to-west, the linebackers -- even if they're not the starters -- should be able to close on him and bring him down.  James Harrison looks like he might return, which means that Lawrence Timmons can move back to the inside.  That's a key factor in containing Rice.  Not containing him as a runner, but making sure he doesn't kill you catching checkdowns from Joe Flacco.

In the past, Rice has still been a big factor in games where the Steelers have bottled him up as a runner.  He's accomplished this by catching a four yard dump-off pass and turning it into a ten yard gain.  The Steelers need to have a spy on Rice at all times.  Troy makes the most sense, but he'll be busy roaming around the secondary and hopefully causing problems for Flacco there.  That means Timmons needs to get back to his Team Assassin ways and focus on murdering Ray Rice.  I think it can be done and I think Timmons (v 2010) would be the man for the job.

Suggs and Ngata:

Here's your lowest easy-to-type/difficult-to-execute ratio.  These two guys have destroyed the Steelers the past few years and were particularly destructive in Week 1.  Yes, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis still make plays, but Suggs and Ngata just seem to straight-up murder them.  I think the pass protection has improved since Max Starks came back and I think Starks is a big upgrade over Jonathan Scott, but there's only so much lipstick you can put on this situation.  Ramon Foster is an upgrade over Legursky and a healthy Kemo will fare better against Ngata than the last time out, but neither guy is in Ngata's class.

Just like with Ray Rice, there's no way to take these guys completely out of the game.  You just need to know where they are, know where they're going, and try like hell to stop them.  If Foster, Pouncey, Kemo, and Starks win more battles than they lose, then the Steelers can win.  If Ngata and Suggs go off like they did in Week 1, well you saw the results.

Pass to Set Up the Run:

This is a good idea for two reasons: It has worked the past few weeks and it lets the Steelers know what they're working with early.  Ben Roethlisberger threw the ball a lot more in the first half the past few weeks -- especially against New England -- and they were able to move the ball and get some open space in the running game.  Historically, open space in the running game has been extremely rare against the hated Ravens, so this strategy is worth a shot.  My thinking is that there won't be a whole lot of things that go well for the Steelers on offense and they may as well find out how poorly things are going to go as early as possible.

If they work Roethlisberger out of the shotgun early, then he'll have more time to get rid of the ball and they'll be able to gauge Baltimore's plan on defense.  If the hated Ravens bring the house, then I think Roethlisberger will shred them, since he's been very effective against the blitz thus far this season.  If they rush four or five guys and get to him almost immediately, then it's time to try something different.  The issue in the first game was that Suggs and Ngata were in Roethlisberger's face as soon as he said "Hut" so Baltimore didn't need to blitz that much.  If they're not successful rushing four or five guys -- meaning Suggs and Ngata are being somewhat contained -- then they'll start sending more guys and then they're screwed.

So...

I think it's possible that the Steelers can accomplish all these things, but I don't know how likely it is.  I would love to see a blow out -- I hate the hated Ravens, I'm playing a guy this week who has Rice, Flacco, and Baltimore's defense, I hate the hated Ravens -- but who would be stupid enough to predict something like that?

I think it's close.  I think the Steelers win more of these battles than they lose.  I think, in the end, Roethlisberger makes all the difference.

Prediction:
Steelers 17, Hated Ravens 13