Steelers vs. Bengals Preview

Basically, there are two things that scare me about this game:

1. Carson Palmer.
2. The Bengals just won a big road game at Lambeau Field, are fired up, and are at home.

There's the usual thing about, "They hate us because they suck and we've won six Super Bowls," but that's been going on in some capacity since 1995. Since 1992, we've won the division ten times and they've won it once. That's a pretty big disparity. Just like with the Browns, they're a bunch of jealous haters that realize they squandered their one opportunity to take us down a peg earlier this decade (Kelly Holcomb, Dropcutt, blown lead for the Browns in 2002, Kimo Kills Carson, blown lead for the Bengals in 2005).

For the most part, we look at the Bengals and Browns as a cute, significantly younger brother that tries to beat us at pick-up basketball even though they're a foot and a half shorter. They hate it, we're ambivalent almost to the point that we think it's adorable.

Every now and again, they make a game of it through pure hate (and some talent). For the most part, if we're up for the game, we crush them.

We're up for this game for two reasons:

1. Mike Tomlin.
2. We're pissed that we lost last week.

For those reasons, I think we crush them.

And that's that.

Well, not really, but that's basically that.

They're going to be fired up. They're going to come out swinging in the first half. If we take their best shot and we're still standing, we'll pull away in the second half.

At some point, they're going to realize that their "big win" is that a 4-11-1 team from 2008 beat a 6-10 team from 2008. Sure, they could be 2-0 if it weren't for an incredibly improbable play against the Broncos in Week 1, but we'd be 2-0 if it weren't for two consecutive and equally improbable misses from Jeff Reed last week.

Don't get me wrong, I have a lot of faith in the Bengals. But, "A lot of faith in the Bengals," translates literally to, "I think they have a good shot of going 8-8."

Here's why they don't scare me:

1. Palmer is 2-6 lifetime against the Steelers with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions (thought he had more picks against us, but Pro Football Reference says no), has averaged 202 yards passing a game, and has a 78.5 passer rating. Three of those touchdown passes came in the 2005 game when they clinched the division and forced us to become the only sixth seed in the history of the NFL to win the Super Bowl. So, take out that game and he still averages 200 yards a game, but only has ten touchdown passes. The point here is that I'm dumb for being scared of Carson Palmer.
2. Ben Roethlisberger is 8-2 against the Bengals with 15 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and an 88.2 passer rating. Not a huge difference, but he's 8-2 and Carson is 2-6, so that has to count for something, right?
3. Cedric Benson is a scrub. His girlfriend left him because he couldn't find the hole. After a decent 2008 season playing against some of the worst run defenses in the league and a solid performance against Green Bay, I'm supposed to believe he's an all-star? I'm selling that. He's not as good as Chris Johnson or Matt Forte and we shut those guys down. Which means the game falls on the shoulders of Carson Palmer. Who scares me. But I'm dumb for feeling that way. So there you go.
4. Our guys are pissed. On Sunday, they were crestfallen and shocked. Come Tuesday, they were pissed. That feeling hasn't waned -- it has, in fact intensified -- since then, so that's worth ten points. In the Cowher Era, it was worth 17 points. But Tomlin has these players playing angry. In past games, we'd come out flat and the Bengals would be fired up and we'd have to establish dominance after halftime. This week, we're ready.
5. Week 6 in 2006. We crushed the Kansas City Chiefs. Just destroyed them. That was the point where we realized we didn't have a coach and got motivated. This season, we have a coach and are motivated.
6. Seriously. It's the Bengals.

I think we stop Benson.

I think Carson Palmer once again makes me look dumb for being scared of him.

I think their re-vamped defense turtles by the midpoint of the second quarter once they realize how much we like to hit people.

I think their best shot won't phase us.

I think we roll.

Prediction: Steelers 34, Bengals 14