Steelers vs. Chargers Preview

First some thoughts on the implosion against the Bengals:

1. Well, so much for us dominating, eh? Who's the idiot that said that would happen? Oh, right.
2. The running game is not back. We still can't gain four yards on third and three. Still can't gain a foot and a half on fourth and goal. It was the Bengals. I am managing my expectations and not expecting Fast Willie to bust out for 100 yards against the Chargers, or possibly the rest of the season, except for maybe against the Browns or Lions.
3. That last drive by the Bengals was a master stroke. Sure, we shouldn't have coughed up a conversion on fourth and ten to some random white dude, but they made sure by how they managed the clock that they would either win or lose on that drive. Nicely done by them. More than I have come to expect from Marvin Lewis.
4. Limas Sweed and Rashard Mendenhall should not have been called out in the media. Tomlin is using that as a weapon, when he should go all Santonio Holmes on them. Worked out well last season.
5. Speaking of Holmes, he's fighting the ball. That's no good.
6. Speaking of the defense, they miss Troy. That much is obvious. However, they have no excuse for not forcing any turnovers the last two games. This needs to change. Stat.
7. They also need to stop being clutch. They need to bring back the "someone is going to make a play" mentality. I had that mentality as the Bengals were driving for the win. I just assumed we'd stop them. We didn't. I assumed we'd stop Cutler and the Bears in Week 2. We didn't. Therefore, I no longer have that mentality. I hope that's not the case with the guys that actually are supposed to play defense. My mentality matters not. I'm just some asshole with a blog. They need to get their swagger back, because it's currently gone.
8. I seriously believe it's time to pick up Mike Wallace if you play in a deep fantasy league with a lot of roster spots or a lot of teams. He and Hines Ward (and possibly Heath) are the only guys playing out there right now.

For this week... I really don't know. I would trust the 2008 Steelers to win this game. I wouldn't trust them to dominate, but I would trust them to make enough plays to win. Home crowd, two straight tough losses, prime time, this is the kind of situation where they would have shined last year.

I haven't lost faith in the magic of last year, but I have also come to terms with how special last year's run was. We have the same problems this year that we had for most of last year -- especially down the stretch -- but we were able to overcome those problems on shear balls and willpower. I have not seen the balls and willpower thus far this year, with the possible exception of the fourth quarter and overtime against the Titans. And that could've been muscle memory, not balls and willpower.

Philip Rivers is averaging 330 yards a game. He has more yards than Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady. And Kurt Warner. And really anyone else you can name, because he leads the league in yards per game.

Darren Sproles is a scary player. He doesn't scare me as a ball carrier, but he scares the hell out of me as a receiver. We did, after all, give up a super long passing touchdown to him in the Divisional Playoff round last year, regardless of whether or not the outcome was already decided.

Their defense is frisky, even if I am not starting them in fantasy this week (starting Washington against the hapless Bucs instead). Without Jamal Williams plugging up the middle (he always kills us) we may be able to run, but I wouldn't count on it.

They have a swagger. They expect to win this game. They're ready for us. This is different than an upstart Bengals team playing over their heads. This is a talented team that doesn't have a shred of doubt in their minds that they will be victorious. And that's dangerous.

On the other hand, they have basically the same players and the same coach as 2008. And we pretty much ruled them in two games in 2008. We have basically the same players and the same coach.

It's prime time. It's at home. Tomlin has been beating these guys up on the practice field and in the media. Hopefully, they're angry. Possibly, they're too beat down. I really don't know.

It could be that I was deflated after reading this on ESPN.com: http://espn.go.com/blog/afcnorth/post/_/id/3715/trouble-in-steel-town.

There's a lot of issues addressed there. A lot of problems. A lot of things that need to be fixed. Can we fix them? I think we can, but I don't know that we can fix them all in one week. And that's pretty much what we need to do.

If we can fix them, at least for this game, the schedule gets easier. We don't have to play the hated Ravens until November, which is a blessing (and a curse). And, actually, if we were playing the hated Ravens on Sunday night, I'd feel comfortable guaranteeing a victory. Against the Chargers? This Sunday night? I don't.

HOWEVER, I will say this: Weidman and I are going to the game. I am 12-1 and his record is comparable. I am 3-0 against the Chargers, including last year's playoff win. And that's a 3-0 record that spans 15 years and pre-dates Heinz Field.

Still... my predictions have been dead freakin' wrong thus far.

Prediction: Chargers 23, Steelers 13