Thursday, October 29, 2009

The Season That Has Been

Now that I've had a chance to catch my breath during the bye week, I decided to take a look at 2009 thus far on offense and defense.

A lot of people, myself included, have been critical of the Steelers to this point because they (and me) can't understand how a team that won the Super Bowl in 2008 (we won Super Bowl XLIII, by the way, I'm not sure that I mentioned that ) could struggle as much as they've struggled.

I took a look at the numbers and discovered a couple of interesting things.
  1. Good God, how did we win a championship last year?
  2. Given #1, I guess things aren't that bad this year.
After seven games in 2008, the Steelers were 5-2.

After seven games in 2009, the Steelers were 5-2.

Sure, you can say that they faced the toughest schedule in NFL history last season. But, we won games against Jacksonville, the hated Ravens, the Browns, the Bengals, and Texans and lost games against the Eagles and Giants. Among the teams that we beat in the first seven games in 2008, only the hated Ravens were any good. In 2009, the only team we beat that was any good was Minnesota.

One issue that I have identified with the 2009 Steelers is special teams, both in terms of the return game and coverage ability. They have pretty well sucked in 2009. Well, they pretty well sucked in 2008. In all actuality, we're better off this year than last year because this year we have Vulva instead of Bitch Merger or the guy that was so bad that he was cut in favor of a gimpy Bitch Merger. I... think his first name was Paul. At any rate, we're actually better on special teams this year than we were last year. As sad as that may be, as much of a point of consternation as it continues to be, we still won the Super Bowl last year with crappier special teams, so we can't call it an issue.

The defense. It was first in points allowed, first in yards allowed, first in passing yards allowed, second in rushing yards allowed, and was historically good. Hey, can't have that two years in a row. Right now, it's 10th in points allowed, eighth in yards allowed, 15th in passing yards allowed, and second in rushing yards allowed. It's not historically good, but it's pretty damn good. The trouble is that they're on pace to force 21 turnovers (29 forced last year) and get 43 sacks (51 last year). Game by game that's not too much, but over the course of a season it adds up.

But, the offense is way better. Last year, they were 22nd in yards per game. That's not a misprint. Last year, they were 20th in points per game. They had the 17th-best passing attack and the 23rd-best rushing attack. Last year, hands down, we rode that historically good defense all the way to the championship. People tend to view championship teams through rose-colored glasses, so that's a good reality check. This year? We are 14th in points scored, fifth in passing yards, seventh in total yards, and 17th in rushing yards.

So, the issue is that we're gaining tons of yards but we choke in the red zone, right? Well, I've said that. And, thus far, I am wrong. Last year, we scored touchdowns on 55.1 percent of red zone trips and 58.62 percent of the time in goal-to-go situations. This year, we're scoring touchdowns 56.52 percent of the time in the red zone and 71.43 percent of the time in goal-to-go. Um... I'd have to say that's not the issue.

Really, ultimately, it's the fact that we've choked in the fourth quarter on offense, defense, and special teams (except last week). Stats back that up. We gave up 75 points in the fourth quarter last year and scored 104 points. This year, we've already allowed 62 points and have only scored 30. Ouch. That's bad. Is it fixed? I don't know. It was against the Vikings, I know that. Hopefully, there were just some early season bumps against the Chargers, Bengals, and Bears. Hopefully.

It's a different year. It's a different team. As Tomlin says, we haven't identified the personality of this team yet. I do know that two of the big issues from last season -- sacks allowed and rushing yards gained -- are trending in the right direction this season. Roethlisberger is on pace to throw the ball 535 times this year and get sacked 48 times. Last year, he threw it 506 times and was sacked 51 times. Last year, we averaged 3.7 yards a carry. We're averaging four yards a carry this year.

Special teams are slightly better, the offense is much better, and the defense is not one of the greatest defenses ever to take the field. Considering that we won the Super Bowl last year (you're sure I mentioned that already, right?) I think we're in good shape.

So... why do I still feel uneasy? I have a theory. External factors have changed.

Last season, expectations were low. We had gotten bounced out of the first round of the playoffs the previous season and were facing the toughest schedule in NFL history. This season, expectations were high. We won the Super Bowl and were facing one of the easiest schedules in NFL history.

Through seven games last season, the Colts were struggling at 3-4 and the Patriots were without Tom Brady. There were no undefeated Broncos teams. There was no offensive juggernaut like the Saints. There was only the New York Giants, who many Steelers fans legitimately believed we would've defeated if we had a punter that was worth a damn and James Harrison wasn't our long snapper.

Brady's back and the Patriots beat the Titans -- a team we needed overtime to beat -- by 59 points. Indianapolis is 6-0 and is crushing people.

More teams have more buzz, but we have the ring. And the bullseye on our chests. And that's the difference.

Need more perspective? At this point in 2006, we were 2-5. I think we're OK in 2009.

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