Browns Review and Vikings Preview

Well, I'm sorry. It's been a long couple of weeks and I have been under the gun in several key areas, most notably at work, where I've had all this work stuff to do and haven't been able to devote as much time to my blog.

Thoughts about the Cleveland game:

1. We had 557 total yards, they had 213 total yards. And we only beat them by 13. At home. In a division game. Where we figured we'd be able to gain ground on the Bengals and the hated Ravens.
   
2. Part of the reason we didn't score as much as the yards would indicate is that we had four turnovers.
3. But, we also forced three turnovers.
4. And we got crushed on special teams.
5. And we sucked in the red zone.
6. And we really, really sucked in goal-to-go situations.
7. I have a feeling that the red zone and goal-to-go issues will sort themselves out over time, but we were supposed to re-gain our special teams advantage after Vulva came back and Stefan Logan joined the team. Thus far, Logan has not turned his preseason success into regular season production. And that's hurting the Steelers. The good news is that Vulva is as good as ever.
8. I still feel uneasy in the fourth quarter.
9. Other teams still have that look in their eye like they might come back in the fourth quarter.
10. We should have defeated the Browns and Lions by more than 21 points total in back-to-back weeks.

Now the Minnesota Vikings come to town. I wrote in August (scroll towards the bottom) that Favre signing with the Vikings was going to assassinate their season. Well, thus far, that prediction isn't working out so well. But, it's early in the season. The Jets started out 8-3 last season before Favre got hurt/imploded like he always does and they ended up missing the playoffs. He can still assassinate their season. I just don't think it happens Sunday. Partially because Sunday's game isn't important enough to kill the season for either team. Partially because I don't think that he's going to be the reason they lose (if they lose at all).

Here's the thing: I actually think that, top to bottom, we have the better team. I think that they have their stars, we have our stars, and, ultimately, our team outweighs their star power. I also think that cohesion and team-outweighing-star-power advantage means a lot more in December and January when everyone is freezing and exhausted. But, that also means that they're fresh right now.

Brett Favre took the offseason off, didn't have all the reps and the throws and the hits and even the preseason to wear on his body, so he's not worn out. Adrian Peterson had the offseason to rest and recuperate, he only has 120 carries thus far this season, and he's young, so he doesn't wear down quite so easy, but he does tend to hit a wall of sorts around Week 14 when the fantasy football playoffs kick into high gear.

Overall, I think our offensive line actually holds an edge over their defensive line, because the Williamses (Pat and Kevin, the defensive tackles) don't seem to be as effective since they tested positive for banned substances and Jared Allen can be run on, as he's always trying to get to the quarterback and mostly ignores the running back. I also think that, if we choose to, we can be successful doing some running back screens. We used to throw them to Willie Parker all the time. We can bring that back. We can throw a few to Mendenhall. We don't have to keep throwing bubble screens to Hines and Heath. If we take the time to set up a screen, I think we can be successful.

Our defensive line is better than their offensive line. Early on in his career, Peterson's line made him look better. At this point, he's making his line look better. They're not pulling and trapping as well, they're not blowing people off the ball, and they just don't, in general, seem to be as interested in blocking people anymore because, well, Adrian is just going to juke the defender and run by him.

I think our receivers are better than their receivers. I think our receivers are better than their defensive backs. I think our defensive backs are better than their receivers. Our linebackers are better than their linebackers (even though it's close). I think Roethlisberger, at this point, is a better quarterback than Favre.

As I said, I think we're the better team top-to-bottom. The only place where they have a decided advantage is in special teams, where Percy Harvin is way better than Stefan Logan. He's way better than everyone in the league not named Devin Hester or Josh Cribbs.

So, the Steelers are at home, they have the better team, and they have a history of stopping elite running backs, so that means they'll stop Peterson, the home crowd will take over, and they'll win the game, right?

Well, that sounds all well and good, but the fact remains that the Vikings have the number two scoring offense in the league (31.5 points per game) and the number 18 scoring defense in the league (20.2 points per game), while the Steelers have the 14th (23.3) and 11th (18.7), respectively. The Steelers are much more impressive in terms of their yardage rankings, but Minnesota goes out and gets it done.

They also have luck on their side. They complete Hail Mary passes to the back of the end zone with 12 seconds left. They blow 21 point fourth quarter leads, mismanage the clock, and their opponent still misses a field goal. As of right now, they're cool, calm, collected, and extremely lucky. And talented. And confident. And they want to make a statement against the defending champs. And they all love Brett Favre at this point and they'll believe anything he says, like when he tells them they can win this game.

I also don't think that Brad Childress is a good coach, but he hasn't killed them thus far.

This is one of those midseason "statement games" that teams that are trying to establish themselves try extra-special hard to win. We had two in a row in 2004 and won both of them against the Patriots and Eagles. We lost our statement game against the Giants last year, but won statement games against the Patriots and Cowboys.

The point is that regular season statement games don't really mean that much. And veteran teams like the Steelers understand that. But, they also understand that all wins are important. So, they'll probably fall behind by a couple touchdowns, make a furious comeback in the fourth quarter, and eventually lose on a play that may or may not be considered fluky.

I think the Steelers are the better team, they'll be the better team if these two clubs meet in February, and they're more complete overall, but that the Vikings are the team that wins this game in late October. They win this game because it means more to them than it does to the Steelers. They win this game because they want it more. They win this game because, at this point, they're the better team.

Prediction: Vikings 27, Steelers 24