Soooo Shady: Eagles at Steelers Preview

I'm going to say that LeSean McCoy is the key to this game because I think the Steelers will be able to limit the amount of damage Michael Vick does if they can keep Shady in check.  If he's able to gouge them like Darren McFadden did in the Week 3, then they're not going to be able to contain Vick, either.

McCoy is the most talented player on a very talented offense.  He's such a bad ass that he used to say his name when he juked someone in practice as an extra-special kind of taunt.  He has excellent vision, great feet, good acceleration, and is a very capable receiver.  However, he's not a real home run threat and he doesn't do well when he doesn't have nice gaps to run through.  If the Steeler defense can maintain gap integrity, fill the running lanes, and no one tries to be a hero, they should be able to keep him hemmed in.  At least I hope so.

The Eagles are 3-1, but it hasn't been pretty.  They've won their three games by a total of four points, but they've faced a pretty formidable schedule (except for when they played the Browns).  The big issue thus far this season has been turnovers.  They commit a lot of those.  The Steelers don't force a lot of those.  So, in a case of the "moveable object versus the resistable force" the Steelers will need to force some turnovers to win this game.  This game will most likely turn into a shootout and the Steelers will need those extra possessions in order to win.  I think that they have it in them, but this game fills me with dread.

Philly has basically returned their "Dream Team" roster from 2011 (minus Vince Young), but they're actually finishing games and have been able to overcome the fact that they're their own worst enemy.  There's a ton of talent on this roster and it's finally being used properly, most notably by allowing Michael Vick to be Michael Vick and not forcing a bunch of man coverage corners to play zone.  If they play together and don't beat themselves, they could route the Steelers and it could be an ugly game.

Really, all signs and match-ups point to an Eagles victory.  But, I picked the Steelers in Pick Em this week because of what I think are several important factors.

1. They're at home and they play better at home.
2. They're coming off a bye and they've had two weeks to prepare for Philadelphia.
3. Everyone's healthy for the first time this season, most importantly James Harrison and Troy Polamalu are coming back, which should be a big boost for the defense.  I'm happy that Mendenhall is coming back and I'm starting him in two fantasy football leagues, but I think the defense's ability to get stops and force turnovers is going to be the key to this game.
4. The defense got embarrassed in Oakland and they're pissed off.  Historically, they turn in a strong performance the week after they get beat down and subsequently accused of being too old.  There's a lot of veteran leadership on the defense, but, more importantly, there are a lot of guys that take pride in playing good defense.  Their ability to come back from a poor showing and force everyone to gulp down a frosty glass of STFU is what's going to win this game for the Steelers.

I feel confident in those four points, but I'm still filled with dread.  This game could left me up, or it could crush my spirits, with the Steelers being crushed as well.

But, what the hell, gotta predict something, right?

Prediction:

Steelers 31, Eagles 27

Steelers Preseason Game 1 Watchlist

For the most part, the preseason is a bunch of meaningless games that try to determine, once and for all, whose third team defensive end is better than whose fourth team offensive tackle.  But, there are some things to watch for in every game and not just when the starters are on the field (though that's mostly what to watch for).

Here's what I'll be watching:

1. Because I keep meaning to write something about Mike Wallace and keep not doing so, here's what I think: Until he reports to camp, nothing's going to happen with his contract.  I keep hoping that this situation will work out like it did with Hines Ward back in the day.  Both sides hem and haw and dig their feet into the ground until one side-- always the player, never the team -- relents, reports, and begins negotiating.  Until that happens, the coffee table in my living room knows about as much about what's going on as anyone else.  I really hope it happens, because Wallace is the only guy the Steelers have on offense that scares defenses.  Sanders, Brown, Heath, Redman, they're all great guys and good players, but they don't scare anyone.  For this offense to be really productive, I think they need a guy who scares people.
2. There has been a lot of talk thus far about Mike Adams and David DeCastro struggling in practice.  They're both going to be starting tonight, so I want to check them out and see if they struggle in games when it really matters.  Well, it doesn't really matter matter tonight, but it matters more than practice.
3. Chris Rainey.  He had some issues fielding kicks cleanly in practice, but everyone's also talking about how fast and explosive he is.  I want to see how fast he looks when other people are chasing him and really trying to catch him.  I'm excited about Rainey this season.  I think he adds a scary element to the offense.  If he's the guy that scares defenses, we still need Wallace, though.  Rainey will only be able to scare them for 10-12 plays a game.  Wallace scares them for the entire game.  Having both makes them... well, it makes them scarier.
4. With James Harrison and Jason Worilds both on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, Chris Carter starts tonight at Harrison's position.  I'd like to see how he does against Philly's first team and how he stands up to the challenge.  Hopefully, he'll play angry and show the NFL Hall of Fame voters that he belongs in Canton.
5. It sounds like Cortez Allen has the inside track to the second cornerback job opposite Ike Taylor.  I'll have a close eye on Allen, but I'm also curious to see how Keenan Lewis and Curtis Brown look.  Lewis had the inside track on that job before camp started and Brown was a dark horse candidate to grab it.  The popular theory is that, whoever loses the competition, the Steelers win.  They'll have a solid #2 guy and depth at the #3 and #4 depth chart positions.  My theory -- until I see them in-game -- is that when you have three guys fighting for a job, you have no guys that are worthy of the job.  If you need further evidence of this, look at the three guys fighting for the starting quarterback job in Seattle.
6. I think the Steelers took a pretty big step forward on special teams last season.  I want to confirm that wasn't a fluke.

As things stand right now, the optimism I was feeling after the draft is waning.  I assume that Wallace will be back in the line-up when the season starts, but I don't know that he will and I also don't have many valid reasons upon which to base that assumption.

The offensive line is new and it's younger, but I have no idea if that translates to them actually being better.  I have to see for myself, but the reports I've been hearing from camp haven't inspired me with confidence.

The defense is another year older and I actually think the overall talent level on defense has improved, but I also think that they need to stay 100% healthy this season to match last season's success.  And, with all the guys they have on the wrong side of 30 and the fact that no defense in the history of ever has gone a full season without anyone getting hurt, I don't see them staying 100% healthy, so I'd really welcome a chance to see the third defensive end, because he might be starting by the end of the year.

I'm excited for kickoff, I'm looking forward to the upcoming season, but I'm also anxious as hell.

Preseason Game 2 Review

I have to come clean.  I didn't watch the first preseason game.  The Arena Bowl was on (read Weidman's review, because it's awesome), then I went out of town for the rest of the weekend, then I didn't watch the recording because I read a lot about the game and figured I knew enough from that.

Also in the interest of full disclosure: I'm started this at halftime of the Steelers-Eagles game, because the second half will mostly just determine whether the third and fourth string guys for the Steelers are better than the third and fourth string guys for Philly.  In this game, at least, the first string guys for the Steelers dominated.

What I Liked:

1. Hey, so, we all know that Michael Vick had a really crappy game.  He looked lost and he forced several passes into double coverage.  The key for the Steeler defense is that they made him pay for those mistakes.  One of the biggest issues last year's unit had was that they didn't force a lot of turnovers.  Even if it was the preseason and Vick looked like he just graduated from Virginia Tech, it was still nice to see.
2. Troy sure doesn't look like he's coming back from an injury.  He was all over the place.  If it weren't for a pretty nice tackle by Vick, maybe Troy goes all the way on that interception return.  Credit for that interception should go to LaMarr Woodley, though.  Dude's supposed to be a rush linebacker, but he was 25 yards back in coverage and pivoted, jumped, and threw his arm up to tip that ball so Troy could pick it.
3. Lots of nice pressure, mostly by rushing just four guys.  The blitzes, when they came, were well timed and pretty exotic.  I didn't know Ryan Clark was allowed to blitz.  Turns out getting juked out of a sack was the best thing that could've happened on that play (led to the Polamalu interception after Vick scrambled).  Clark also did a good job of playing possum, then jumping on the ball on his interception (another throw into double coverage by Vick).
4. Defensive line should be in real good shape -- especially Casey Hampton and I'm sorry I said he'd check in at 400 pounds after the lockout -- and should be able to weather the injury when Aaron Smith goes on IR in Week 8.
5. Maybe the injuries to Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden have a silver lining.  Keenan Lewis and William Gay got a lot of reps against Philly's first team offense and they looked sharp.
6. Ben Roethlisberger has very strong hands. Mrs. Roethlisberger and a number of ladies in the Atlanta area are probably already aware of this fact, but I want to mention it.  That was a brilliant pump fake on the Antonio Brown touchdown.
7. The offense, in general, looked great.  Lots of nice holes for Mendenhall and Redman, Roethlisberger had ample time when the Eagles didn't jail break blitz, and Brown seems like he's progressing nicely.  This was against was it supposed to be a top five defense.  I know, it's only the preseason, but it was still encouraging.
8. As happy as I was when Baron Batch was drafted and as much as I wanted him to replace Mewelde Moore as the team's third down back, I have to admit that Moore looked good.  Maybe, possibly, Mendenhall or Redman or Batch would've scored on that wheel route Moore caught when Philadelphia overloaded the right side on third and short in the second quarter.  But, hey, he caught the ball and he gained a bunch of yards, setting up that second touchdown.  As bummed as I am that Batch blew out his knee and ended up on injured reserve, I'm happy that Moore seems to have found the Fountain of 2008 and looks to be back to his old tricks.
9. Arnaz Battle is still alive, which adds depth at receiver and helps the Steelers out on special teams.
10. Time of possession in the first half was almost 24 minutes to six.  With an old defense, those long drives will pay off over the balance of the season.

What I Didn't Like:

What's not to like about a first half that ends with the Steelers holding a 21-0 lead?  This is more like a list of things that concern me.

1. Why isn't Jerricho Cotchery working with the first team?  Is he hurt?  Taking a long time to learn the system?  Past his prime?  I know it takes time to learn a new system, but some dude named Tyler Grisham was working as the fourth wide receiver.  Maybe there's nothing to it, but you gotta think that Cotchery should be able to beat out some kid... unless he's got nothing left in the tank.
2. Where was Mike Wallace?  I know he was on the field.  I saw him and everything.  But, zero catches for zero yards.  I still think he's a fantastic receiver with a tremendous future ahead of him.  My only issue is that he might have a down year this year.  With all the injuries along what was already a pretty depleted offensive line, I have to assume that the Steelers aren't going to throw deep a lot in 2011.  If they don't, that takes a whole lot of targets away from Wallace.  Fewer targets means fewer opportunities means fewer catches means fewer yards means fewer touchdowns.  Right now, the Steelers seem to be running a "Clear and Sweep" offense, where they send Wallace deep, half the secondary follows him, and then they pick the defense apart with routes under 15 yards.  Judging by tonight's results, this doesn't appear to be a bad thing for the offense in general, but it's not a good leading indicator for Wallace, especially for fantasy purposes.
3. Injuries.  Jonathan Scott and Marcus Gilbert both left the game with knee problems and Redman hurt his ankle.  Given those injuries, I would think that Tomlin would want to get his first team defense off the field after a strong showing.  He didn't.  So, that concerns me.
4. Even though Gay and Lewis played well, the pass defense will suffer if Taylor and McFadden can't be back for the start of the season.
5. Man, I sure hope Shaun Suisham is OK.  I was not impressed by Swayze Waters.
6. Second Half Note: Dennis Dixon threw a lot of fluttering, helicopter passes.  Some balls had some nice zip on them.  But, I wouldn't say he's in a position to demand a trade so he can compete for a starting job or a top back-up job.

All in all, a strong follow-up to what I read was a pretty dismal effort against the Redskins.  It's too early to start designing the Super Bowl rings just yet, but tonight's game was certainly promising.