Hate to Do This: Hated Ravens at Steelers Preview

I hate the hated Ravens so much that I refer to them as "the hated Ravens."  I still hate Brian Billick and he hasn't coached for the team in like five years.  I hate Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and even Elvis Grbac (mostly because of the weird name, but he did play for Baltimore for a season).  I hate the hated Ravens so much that they almost made me hate Rod Woodson.

But, there's one thing that I hate more than the hated Ravens: Jay Cutler's face.  Maybe there's two things.  Jay Cutler's face and picking the hated Ravens to beat the Steelers.  I already went on record picking them in this week's Pick Em, but I wanted to go on record here and explain how much picking Baltimore to win Sunday night sucked.

I think the hated Ravens are going to win and I hate saying that.

Now I'm going to talk about what the Steelers need to do to win.  It's not as impossible as it might seem.

Consider the following:

1. The Steelers are 4-0 at home (sure, they haven't beaten any good teams there yet, but they're undefeated.)
2. Baltimore is 2-2 on the road and their two road wins are against the Chiefs (with a Orioles-Royals score of 9-6) and the Browns (25-15).
3. The Unibrow sucks on the road this season.  Home numbers: 113-173-1612-10-3-108.3.  Road numbers: 71-136-719-3-4-62.7.  He gains 45 quarterback rating points and four yards per attempt at home.  Or, more importantly, he loses four yards an attempt and 45 rating points on the road.
4. For the first time in recent memory, the hated Ravens aren't defending the run well.  They rank 26th in the league in yards allowed, giving up 132 rushing yards a game.
5. In four home games, the Steelers have given up an average of 12.3 points per game.

Those are all good trends, because the Steelers need to do the following things to win the game:

1. Avoid getting off to a slow start.
2. Not turn the ball over.
3. Make it a low scoring game.
4. Run the ball effectively and frequently.

Trouble is, I think they'll only be able to accomplish #2.  They've done an exceptional job taking care of the ball thus far this season and I think that they'll err on the side of caution on offense -- no high risk pass plays, running backs keep both hands on the ball.  But, that's only one of the four things they need to do to win.

I think they'll get off to a slow start.  The hated Ravens know the Steelers almost as well as they know themselves.  They know that this team can't come back from a big deficit without Ben Roethlisberger.  Baltimore's primary objective will be to get off to a fast start and get the Steelers off balance as quickly as possible.

Byron Leftwich won't be as bad as he was against the Chiefs.  He'll have a full week of practice under his belt for this game and Todd Haley will put together a game plan that works with Leftwich's strengths.  There has been a lot of chatter about the fact that Leftwich is a bad fit for Haley's offense.  But, the fact of the matter is that Haley designed this year's offense -- and last week's game plan -- around Ben Roethlisberger and the other personnel the Steelers have on the roster.  When they hired him as offensive coordinator, I wrote about the fact that he's a personnel guy, not a system guy.  When he had Kurt Warner and a bunch of great receivers in Arizona, he called a lot of passes.  When he had Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones in Kansas City, he called a lot of runs.  When he realized that the Steelers had a bunch of explosive playmakers at receiver and an offensive line that had trouble protecting its quarterback, he called a lot of quick timing passes and screens.  When Roethlisberger Monday night's game, they already had the game plan installed and he couldn't start calling stuff that was completely different than what they had practiced all week.  On Sunday night, his game plan will be optimized to make the most of what Leftwich brings to the table.  The problem there is that it's not just Leftwich.

Antonio Brown will probably miss this game.  Rashard Mendenhall will probably start after a long layoff.  The offensive line still has pass protection issue.  There are a lot of moving parts that are either unavailable or rusty.  Couple that with the fact that Baltimore will want to do whatever they can to start fast and shut the Steelers down early and you can see how it's hard to imagine that they'll avoid getting off to slow start.

I think that they can keep the game low scoring even if they get off to a slow start, but I don't think that means they'll win.  If they fall behind 14-0 or 10-0, they'll eventually rally, but I think they'll fall short.

Running the ball effectively and frequently is the last thing on the list, but it's also the most important.  It affects whether or not they'll be able to accomplish #1 and #4.  If they start out running the ball well, that takes the early pressure off Leftwich.  If they keep running the ball well, that helps keep the ball away from Unibrow and the ever-deadly Ray Rice.  It also sets up the play action passing game, which will slow down the pass rush of the hated Ravens and make things easier on Leftwich.

But... the Ravens know all this, which is why they'll stack the box, look to stop the run at all costs, and force Leftwich to beat them.  They'll also bring a lot of extra defenders on the blitz when Haley does call a pass, knowing that they don't have the personnel to cover the Steelers receivers for more than three seconds. 

Most of the pressure will come up the middle, since Leftwich doesn't have the mobility to break outside the tackle box and extend the play like Roethlisberger does.  That's a problem because the interior linemen -- though they've done an exceptional job blowing up big holes between the tackles in the running game -- have had some serious issues in pass protection.

So... if the Steelers can run the ball well out of the gate and if they don't turn the ball over and if the hated Ravens defense doesn't embed Leftwich into the Heinz Field turf in the first half and if they can keep Ray Rice contained, they'll be able to win a close game. 

And, while I'm asking for stuff, I'd like a pony.

Prediction:
Hated Ravens 17, Steelers 10

Good News and Bad News: Chiefs at Steelers

At the end of regulation, Weidman turned to me and we had the following conversation.

Weidman: Here's what's going to happen: Chiefs win the toss, they elect to receive, then they finally play like the Chiefs and turn the ball over.  Suisham wins it with a field goal.

Me: Turnover could also be a pick six.  That also works.

Weidman: No.  Suisham needs to win it.  That's what needs to happen.

Me: OK, then.  That works, too.

The game played out exactly as Weidman had foreseen it.  That was the coolest thing that happened last night.

Sure, the Steelers won, which was cool.  But, it was cool like finding out that the girl you hooked up with at the bar last month isn't pregnant.  Or cool like discovering that the Check Engine light in your car came on because it had been more than six months since your last oil change.  It's more a feeling of relief than anything.

Good news first:

1. A win is a win.  Lest you forget, I am always here to point that fact out, especially after an especially ugly victory.
2. The Steelers committed fewer penalties and allowed fewer sacks than Kansas City.  I don't care if the Chiefs are 1-7, that's still something that's good to keep track of, especially this season.
3. Even though the defense didn't force turnovers in the quantities we expected, they got one when it really mattered.
4. You can talk all you want about how the defense choked and allowed a 4th and 15 conversion that led to Kansas City tying the game, but they also held Matt Cassel to a 46 quarterback rating and held Jamaal Charles in check in the second half.  The game could've gotten out of hand early in the first or midway through the third, but the defense didn't allow that to happen.
5. Lawrence Timmons is having himself one hell of a season.
6. Looks like Ben Roethlisberger isn't done for the season, which is kind of what I expected to hear this morning after watching his right arm dangle at his side as he left the field last night.

Bad News:

1. They didn't run the ball effectively.  That allowed the secondary to play tight on the Steelers receivers, which allowed the cornerbacks to fill in hard in run support, which led to even less effective running.  I think it was a combination of a strong effort by the Chiefs defensive line, a lackluster performance by the interior of the Steeler offensive line, and the fact that Mike Tomlin benched Isaac Redman after he fumbled in the first quarter.  Redman came back, but neither he nor Jonathan Dwyer was able to find a rhythm.  It was a little bit of all those factors, but deciding to take Redman out was the only thing that could really be controlled.  I think it held the running game back, but I might also just be mad because Redman's on my fantasy team and I needed another big game out of him.
2. Jon Gruden was droning on about the fact that the Chiefs were carving the left side of the Steeler defense up in the run game.  At least he was in the first half, when they were.  In the second half, when Ziggy Hood started staying in his lanes and engaging two blockers by shooting the gap like he's supposed to, Gruden didn't mention why they were no longer having success on that side.  Hood didn't suddenly forget what he was supposed to do, he's just inconsistent.  Gap discipline and tackling fundamentals had been two strong areas for the defense the last month.  In the first half, they weren't there, which is part of the reason Kansas City jumped to a 10-0 lead. Again, not taking anything away from the Chiefs offensive line, but that's part of the reason they were successful.
3. With five minutes remaining in the third quarter, Byron Leftwich decided he wanted to throw a pass.  He's still winding up.  Dear God, it takes forever for that man to throw a football.  With the way the protection has been against quality pass rushers, that's going to be an issue.  Oh, hey, look at that!  They play the hated Ravens next week.
4. They're going to have trouble throwing the ball and running the ball without Roethlisberger in the line-up, as evidenced by their production on offense in the second half.
5. One turnover forced in 4+ quarters, zero turnovers forced in regulation, against one of the most generous offenses in the history of the NFL.
6. Really, I could nit pick about a dozen or so different things, but the important thing is that the Chiefs managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and the Steelers got a win.

Roethlisberger hurt his shoulder and no one -- not even the doctors, because that's what tests and MRIs are for -- knows for sure how bad it is and how long he's going to be out.  It doesn't look like something that could land him on injured reserve, but it's definitely not a minor injury and could be a nagging issue (like Troy's calf this season and Woodley's hamstring last season).

As much as I like to kid Leftwich for taking 35 minutes to wind up and throw a pass and Charlie Batch for being 100 years old, they're not bad quarterbacks.  Earlier today, I was talking to a couple of guys I work with and I described Leftwich as "about average" and Batch as "not awesome."  What exactly that means is up for interpretation (hi there, Comments section!), but there's no getting around this fact: Neither of those guys is anywhere near as good as Ben Roethlisberger.

They'll be able to win some games with Leftwich or Batch under center -- they may, possibly, even be able to split with Baltimore -- but they're not winning the division with those guys and they're definitely not making a playoff run without Roethlisberger.

Basically, the really bad news is that we all just have to wait and see just how bad Ben's shoulder is hurt and how long it will take for him to come back.

It's Jamal the Rage: Chiefs at Steelers Preview

Here's the thing: The Steelers need to win this game and they absolutely should win this game.  I went with a horrible, pun-laden title for this post, because there's not a whole lot to say.

The Kansas City Chiefs are an awful, awful team.  We're eight games into the season and they haven't had a lead in regulation yet.  Both of their quarterbacks have been concussed at some point this year.  Jamaal Charles, who was supposed to be a superstar coming off an ACL injury, has been largely underwhelming.  Dwayne Bowe is in a contract year and he's projected to end up with 90 catches for a little over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns.  They just cut cornerback Stanford Routt after signing him to a long term deal in the offseason.  Opposing quarterbacks have a 106.3 passer rating against them.  They have a -20 turnover differential and a -107 point differential.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are certainly trending up.  The offensive line is coming together, the defense is playing tough and disciplined, and special teams is starting to turn the corner.

All this makes it look like Monday night's game is going to be a blowout.  While I hope that happens -- I could always go for a good blowout -- I have a sinking "Tyler Palko Game" feeling about this one.

The Steelers tend to play down to the level of competition.  Many of the guys on Kansas City's defense that were on the roster last year are on the roster this year.  The same defensive backs that were able to jam the Steelers receivers at the line of scrimmage, then turn and run with them down the field last season, are still on the roster.  Last season, the Steelers couldn't get anything going on the ground, then tried to pass their way out of it.  When that failed, they hung on for dear life and narrowly defeated a Chiefs team that started Tyler Palko at quarterback.

Despite all that, I still think the Steelers are going to roll on Monday.

1. They shouldn't struggle running the ball, which should give them balance on offense.  It will also give them the ability to neutralize Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, who are the only two guys they have to fear when Ben Roethlisberger drops back to pass.
2. Since Bruce Arians is not calling the plays, the "dink and dunk" passes that Todd Haley has been calling should make it tough for Kansas City to pressure Roethlisberger and help him get into a rhythm early.
3. Dwayne Bowe does not scare me and I think Ike Taylor matches up with him very well.  I don't think Bowe is going to win this game for the Chiefs.
4. Jamaal Charles is the wild card.  He could take over the game like he did in New Orleans earlier this season and pull Kansas City out of Suckville.  However, I don't see that happening.  He's not getting the ball as much as he used to and, even when he has gotten the ball, he hasn't done much with the opportunities.

Even if Charles does explode on Monday night, I think the Steelers will be able to score enough to offset that.  Actually, considering the fact that I'm starting Charles on two of my fantasy teams, him having a huge game wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.  Again, even if he does, I don't think the Chiefs have enough to win at Heinz Field.

They have too much to overcome.  Now, in last week's preview, I said that the Steelers had too much to overcome to beat the Giants (facing a really good team, on the road, emotional situation, they'd been under performing on the road), and the Steelers ended up winning.  This situation is different, though, because Kansas City would need to overcome the fact that they're just not very good.  That's too much for any team to overcome in a normal situation, nonetheless playing on the road against a team that's on a roll like the Steelers, who will be pumped up in prime time in front of a home crowd.

But... something like 150 yards and two touchdowns for Charles?  I think that would be just fine.

Prediction:

Steelers 34, Chiefs 17

Old Rivalries Die Hard: Steelers at Raiders Preview

The trouble with a post like this is that I don't want to sound overconfident and have fate smack me in the face for my hubris.  This is definitely a game that the Steelers should win, but I have no idea whether or not they actually will win it, because there are a lot of factors in play.

First of all, the Oakland Raiders do not suck.  They sucked in 2006 and 2009 and the Steelers let them hang around in those games and ended up losing to a couple of the crappiest NFL teams of this century.  They were actually decent in 2010, finished with an 8-8 record, and came into Heinz Field that season with a respectable 5-4 record, but then the Steelers completely destroyed them 35-3.  So, now that they're actually a decent team this year -- not really a good team, but a decent team that has some talent -- does that mean the Steelers roll, or does that mean that they come into Oakland and lay a giant turd where the pitcher's mound should be?  I have no idea.

Second of all, Ben Roethlisberger and the Bay Area do not get along.  He threw four picks in that 2006 debacle, two of which were returned for touchdowns.  We all know how things worked out for him in San Francisco on Monday night last December (granted, he was playing on one leg).

Thirdly, I can't tell yet if this Steelers team is a solid squad that knows how to get the job done or if they're a week-to-week team that is inconsistent.  My guess is that they're a week-to-week team, because of three factors.

1. The defense doesn't get pressure on the quarterback and they don't force turnovers.  That means that they have to hope that the opposing team's quarterback implodes every week like Mark Sanchez did last week.  They got lucky with the horrible quarterbacks they played last season, but you can't count on bad quarterback play every week.  You need to take the ball away and you need to kill drives with sacks and explosive plays.
2. They don't run the ball well, but they're committed to the run.  That means a lot of 3rd and 8 and 3rd and 9 situations for Roethlisberger.  They've been great on third down thus far this season -- converting 19 of 34 through two games and 8 of 15 last week against the Jets -- but they're not going to be able to keep that pace up.  That ten minute drive in the fourth quarter against New York last week was awesome, but it's a three-and-out or a drive that stalls at midfield if Roethlisberger doesn't convert some key third downs.
3. Too many old guys and too many fragile guys on the offensive line.  I have a feeling that they're going to use at least 15 more combinations on the offensive line this season.  I have a feeling that the injuries to James Harrison and Troy are going to linger.  I have a feeling that they're not done putting guys on injured reserve.  The "next man up" played well in Week 2, but I don't think we can count on that kind of consistent performance from the back-ups all season.

I say all this because, after thinking about the Jets game last week, I don't think it was a dominant performance.  I don't think they beat up the Jets or even wore them down.  I think, like the Seahawks game last year, they just kind of leaned on the Jets until they fell over.  Once the lead got to ten points and the clock kept winding, you knew that Sanchez wasn't going to be able to pull the game out.  The rest was just details for the box score.

And, hey, there's nothing wrong with winning, but I'm just saying it's way too early to start thinking Super Bowl, or even playoffs.  At least that's how I feel this week.

That's why this is an important game, even though it's supposed to be a snooze fest that the Steelers should win easy. 

Above all else, they need to run the ball effectively.  They're not going to blow the Raiders off the ball -- I don't think that they're good enough up front to blow anyone off the ball, to say nothing of the fact that Oakland's front seven is pretty tough and athletic -- but they need to do better than the 2.6 yards per carry they're currently averaging.  One thing they can do to help that average right off the bat is to take toss plays and sweep plays out of the playbook until Rashard Mendenhall come back.  Issac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are solid backs, but they don't have to quickness you need to get to the edge.  Todd Haley needs to realize that and come to terms with the fact that this offense can't afford to lose eight yards a play on those runs simply because they're in the playbook.

If they can average four yards a carry, then they'll get themselves into third-and-managable situations.  Better yet, they may be able to avoid third down altogether, which would be a huge step up.  The fact that they've run 133 plays on offense and 34 of those of have been on third down is a bad sign.  By contrast, they opponents have run 106 plays and have faced 21 third downs.  Slow, plodding drives are good for killing the clock and playing keep-away, but they're really difficult to sustain and it tends to put the defense in a bad spot if they're expecting to get a breather and the offense goes three-and-out.

I think they should be able to cruise if they run the ball effectively and I think they will be able to run it effectively.  The Oakland secondary is banged up, which should help the third down conversion rate.  Carson Palmer is still a serviceable quarterback and he has no love for the Steelers, but he's no longer a guy that keeps defensive coordinators up at night.  Their receivers are big and fast, but they have trouble separating from defenders.  If Ike Taylor and Keenan Lewis play tight and physical like they did against the Jets receivers in last week's game, they should be fine.

Darren McFadden scares the hell out of me.  But, he only has 54 yards on 26 carries this season and has been far more dangerous as a receiver.  I'm not saying he won't break out in this game and basically take it over, but I don't think it's very likely.  I think Lawrence Timmons can handle him in coverage coming out of the backfield and I think the rest of the front seven will be able to stay in their gaps and keep him bottled up in the running game.

If they can run effectively, contain McFadden, and Roethlisberger doesn't throw four interceptions, this is a very winnable game.  And I think they will win.

Prediction:
Steelers 24, Raiders 10

Steelers Draft Primer

I'm going to break things down a little differently this year.  In previous years, I've just thrown out one massive post and hoped for the best.

This year, I'm going to try to approach it like real NFL teams do, except that I don't have unlimited resources, a staff, or really anything to base my picks on other than what I've read on the Internet.  The draft is broken up into three days, with Round 1 on Thursday, Rounds 2 and 3 on Friday, and Rounds 4-7 on Saturday.  At this point, teams have a good idea of who they're targeting in general and a rough idea of where those players might be available in each round.  But, really, they only have a slightly better feel for what's going to actually happen after Kaiser Goodell steps up to the podium and announces the Andrew Luck pick than the rest of us.  Trades happen, players are taken higher or lower than expected, and need sometimes trumps best athlete available.

The Steelers have a lot more holes to fill this year than in previous drafts and are heavier on needs.  But, they've tended to pick the best player available throughout the Kevin Colbert era and I think that will continue in this year's draft.

Having said that, here's what they need (in no particular order):

1. At least two offensive linemen, since they've struggled with injuries and could use help at every offensive line position but center
2. Preferably two defensive linemen, but definitely a nose tackle
3. At least one linebacker, with a preference towards inside linebacker (replacement for James Farrior)
4. A running back
5. At least one cornerback
6. A safety

That's eight guys if you assume the minimums and the Steelers have ten picks.  I'd be fine if they spent the two extra picks on offensive linemen because they need the bodies for camp.  But, with Casey Hampton turning 35 in September and losing Aaron Smith and Chris Hoke from the defensive line, I wouldn't be opposed to a 3-3 split on offensive and defensive linemen.

Now that we have an idea of what they're looking for, we can talk strategy.  However, I'm not ready to do that yet, so I'm going to post something tomorrow on what their strategy should be in Round 1 and who I think they should/will take.  Based on what they do in Round 1, I'll talk about what they should/will do in Rounds 2 and 3, then rinse, repeat for Saturday.

It'll be just like being in the Steelers war room.  Except that Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin won't be there.  And you're just sitting there in your underwear and an old Dan Kreider jersey, trying to explain to your wife why you feel the need to yell at Bernie Kosar, even though he's just announcing the Browns third round pick.

All levity aside, this is an extremely important draft for the Steelers.  Not only do they need to re-stock the cabinets with a number of players on offense and defense on the wrong side of 30, they're tight up against the cap and had to make a number of cuts, so they need a lot of cheap labor to fill roster holes.  Their recent draft history hasn't been great, particularly the 2008 class.  Only two players are on the roster out of seven picks.  That would be Rashard Mendenhall, who will begin the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list and hasn't exactly been a superstar and Ryan Mundy, who has filled in well when needed, but is still a backup.  As a point of reference, there are still two players each from the 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005 draft classes that will likely be on the active roster when the 2012 season kicks off.  There are also only two players left from the 2007 draft class, but those two guys are Lawrence Timmons and LaMarr Woodley.

They've had a more consistent track record since 2009.  The 2009 draft brought Ziggy Hood, Keenan Lewis,  David Johnson, and Mike Wallace.  In 2010, there was Maurkice Pouncey, Jason Worilds, Stevenson Sylvester, Jonathan Dwyer, and Antonio Brown.  In 2011, Cameron Heyward has real potential, Marcus Gilbert, Cortez Allen, and Curtis Brown.

There's some quality in there for sure, but mostly just a large quantity of contributors.  In this year's draft, they need quantity and quality.  It could be that the guys that are drafted this year make a huge contribution simply because there are no other options.  But, it could also be that the guys drafted in previous years didn't get a chance because there were veterans in front of them, keeping them from contributing.  It will be an interesting test of Kevin Colbert's and Mike Tomlin's assessment of talent.

The good news is that the 2012 draft class is a deep one, especially along the offensive and defensive lines, with quality and value available into the fourth round.  The bad news is that there's no "sure thing" running backs outside of Trent Richardson and the cornerback class is also top-heavy, without a lot of talent after the second round.  That means that it's highly unlikely that the Steelers will be able to find starters or high quality contributors at all positions where they have holes.

The priorities, I think, are along the offensive and defensive lines, at cornerback, and at running back.  If the first four rounds are some combination of those positions, I will be satisfied.  If they aren't, I will have to hope that the Steeler brain trust knows what they're doing.  History has shown that they generally do, but recent history has shown that they miss more than they hit.  I guess we'll see.

Marty Ball is Back: Steelers at 49ers Preview

When the schedule was released in April, I had this game marked down as a W.  I thought the Monday Night scheduling committee was a bunch of idiots and that they'd be sorry they picked such a runaway blowout as their featured game of the week.  I almost put the W in pen, but instead I decided to just pencil in the win.  That was a good call.

Early on in the season, I wasn't sold on San Francisco.  They started out 1-1 and needed a come back win to beat the Bengals (who I also thought sucked).  Then they came back -- on the road, playing a 1 p.m. game on the east coast -- against the Eagles and beat the Lions in the same set of circumstances.  I should note that this was back when both teams were relevant.  Along the way to a 9-1 start, they crushed Tampa, soundly beat Seattle, and beat the Giants harder than the score might indicate.  They only lost to the Cowboys in overtime and always seemed to make the critical play late in games.  Even though they won nine of their first ten, people were discounting their impressive record because they play in the NFC West, which is the NFL's weakest division.

The thing is that the 49ers played only two division games in their first ten.  Yes, they lost at Baltimore and yes, they choked at Arizona, but they're still a very good team with a legitimate 10-3 record.  You may ask who have they played to get to 10-3, but you may not like the answer if you're a Steeler fan.  They've beaten: Cleveland, Arizona, Seattle, Cincinnati, Tampa, Detroit, Washington, Philly, and the Giants.  They lost to Dallas, Arizona, and the hated Ravens.  The Steelers, at 10-3,  beat a fair number of those teams and they also had the benefit of playing Jacksonville, Indy, and Tennessee, whereas the 49ers had to play the AFC North, which currently has three wining teams (plus Cleveland).

Both teams are 10-3, both teams have two non-conference wins, both teams couldn't beat the hated Ravens.  Both teams are looking to run the ball, stop the run, protect the football, and hit some big plays in the passing game.

There are three distinct factors that are working in San Francisco's favor, though:

1. The 49ers are remarkably good at playing "Marty Ball" (protect the football, run the ball, play well on defense and special teams, be conservative) and they're way better at it than the Steelers are.
2. Ben Roethlisberger may not play and will be limited even if he does play.
3. The game is in San Francisco.

This 49ers team reminds me a lot of the Marty Schottenheimer teams of the 80s and 90s and the Cowher teams of the 90s and early 00s.  They run the ball well, they stop the run, they control the clock, they play solid defense, they don't turn the ball over, and they make enough plays in the passing game to win a lot more often than they lose.  Basically, they're trying to make you play their game by their rules, then make a play in the fourth quarter.  They have some star power on defense, but the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. Just like with all those Cowher teams, the defense is weaker without Patrick Willis, but it is not weak.  It's just like when Kirkland, Greene, Lloyd, Gildon, Woodson, Lake, Perry, Porter, and Chad Brown left.  The defense was weaker at times and in spots, but it was far from weak.  This season, the Steelers have been without Aaron Smith, Kiesel, Farrior, Troy, Harrison, and Woodley for long stretches, but someone else has stepped up and filled the void in the system.

San Francisco has some talent at receiver, but no one that strikes fear in defenses.  If there's an issue, it's with Vernon Davis, since neither Polamalu nor Ryan Clark can cover Davis man-to-man and the defense has had problems with versatile tight ends this season (the first game against the hated Ravens and, early on last week, they made the tight end for the Browns look like a Pro Bowler).  I have confidence that Ike Taylor can handle Michael Crabtree, so the real issue is Davis, at least in the passing game.

Frank Gore is the modern day equivalent of Barry Foster or Bam Morris, but he's way more talented than either of those guys.  He has their toughness and strength and adds superior vision and speed.  They'll look to get him involved early and often and stopping him is what the Steeler defense should focus on.  The problem there is that the 49ers use a number of different personnel groupings and formations to keep run defenses off balance and to hide the direction of the play, so it will take a solid effort from everyone.

The key differentiator, what will turn the game in the Steelers favor, is Ben Roethlisberger.  All those great Cowher teams had one fatal flaw: They were usually at a disadvantage when it came to the quarterback position.  If Roethlisberger suits up, he's a significantly better player than Alex Smith.  Think of the big games those Cowher teams lost to and think about the quarterbacks they faced.  They beat a young Bledsoe, Kelly Holcomb, Elvis Grbac, Chad Pennington, Vinny Testaverde... um Jim Harbaugh, as it turns out.  They lost to guys like Jim Kelly, John Elway, Steve McNair, an experienced Drew Bledsoe, and Tom Brady.  The obvious exception would be Stan Humphries.  I'm only going through 2004, since Cowher changed his strategy and got away from Marty Ball during the 2005 run.  He also had more talent at the skill position on offense and he had Roethlisberger, who had a hell of a postseason until he got to the Super Bowl.

When the Cowher teams said, "We're going to possess the ball, play smashmouth football, and play keepaway from your fancy quarterback," the fancy quarterback usually replied, "But... I still get the ball, right?  I'll get it at some point, won't I?  If so, while you guys are staging six minute drives that end in punts and eight minute drives that end in field goals, I'll just go out and score touchdowns."  That's how things will play out on Monday night if Roethlisberger suits up.

If he plays, the 49ers will need to get away from Marty Ball in order to win.  That doesn't seem practical to me, since they've basically got their playoff seeding set and they won't want to show too many new wrinkles on film for the postseason.  But, Jim Harbaugh is an extremely competitive guy.  Maybe he has it in him.

If Roethlisberger doesn't play, then the Steelers are sunk.  They're just not good enough without him to play this game by Marty's/Cowher's/Harbaugh's rules and win.  And the 49ers are far, far too good at playing that game to lose.

So, this prediction is assuming that Roethlisberger plays, which I think he will.

Prediction:

Steelers 21, San Francisco 17

TGIT: Browns at Steelers Preview

If you're reading this to see if I think the Steelers will win, I think the Steelers will win.  As a matter of fact, you could also read this and this, since both Weidman and I both picked them this week.

As far as my confidence level is concerned, I have to say I'm extremely confident that the Steelers will win.  I know this only servers to jinx them, but, as I see it, three pairs of severe events need to occur for the Browns to win this game:

1. Cleveland scores a defensive touchdown AND a special teams touchdown.
2. Cleveland's defense shuts the Steeler offense AND they force several turnovers, causing them to start a number of drives in Steeler territory.
3. Pat Schurmur would need to show a willingness to throw the ball deep AND Colt McCoy would need to show some ability to complete deep passes.

I think that any one event in any one pair could happen, but not both.  If only one event in one pair happens, the Steelers win.  I also think the pairs are mutually exclusive, meaning that 1 and 2 can't happen together (or 1 and 3 or 2 and 3), since that would mean the Browns played a perfect game and I don't see that happening.

Cleveland isn't only facing history and a tougher opponent, there are also fundamental mismatches in terms of the strengths and weaknesses of the two teams and how they approach the game.

The Browns have a solid pass defense, but their run defense is awful, allowing an average of 151 yards per game.  They just gave up 290 rushing yards to Baltimore.  Pittsburgh's game plan on offense is this:

Establish the run and... oh, wait.  The running game isn't working.  I guess we should try to pass the ball a little more, especially on first down.  If that doesn't work, then go to the shotgun and/or no huddle.  If we build a lead, we establish the run and grind out the clock.

Thus far this season, the pass-run differential is 60-40, which means that establishing the run hasn't worked out so well and they needed to start throwing a lot.  If they're able to run the ball effectively -- which they should be able to do against a crappy run defense like Cleveland's -- then that sets up their whole offense, opens up play action, and makes the attack balanced.  When they've been able to establish the run early, they've been very successful.  The Browns offense has been horrendous all year, so they won't be able to outscore a balanced Steeler offense.

Unless Arians decides to change up the game plan -- it's rare, but it has happened -- things are set up so that all the Steelers need to do is play their game and they'll win. 

Cleveland is averaging only 14.5 points per game and the most points they've scored in any game is 20.  The only reason they've won four games -- and the reason they haven't been blown out much -- is because their defense is keeping them in games.  They beat Seattle 6-3, they beat Jacksonville 14-10, they beat Miami 17-16, they hung in there against the Rams and 49ers, and the Bengals needed a comeback victory two weeks ago. 

At some point, though, the defense is going to give up.  Yes, they're all professionals and they all have a job to do.  They're also people and people get tired of bailing out their coworkers time and time again only to watch Bob from operations try to fix the fax machine by scooping ice cream into it.  Maybe they keep fighting this week because the Steelers are still a big rival for them.  Maybe they finally start mailing it in in the second half.  Maybe it happens next week or in Week 16, but it's going to happen.  We can only hope it starts tonight.

On defense, the Steelers want to stop the run, pressure the quarterback, and keep everything in front of them.  I think they'll be able to do the first two, but playing too much zone against the Browns will give them space to operate underneath.  They only throw the ball underneath, so you can't give them space to operate there.  Dick LeBeau has show a willingness to play more man coverage this season, starting with the game against the Patriots in Week 8 (side note: I never want to write "Patriots game" because it reminds me of the movie).  If he keeps everyone in tight, McCoy doesn't have the arm strength or the weapons to beat them deep and Peyton Hillis and Chris Ooomagooma don't have the long speed to break a big run.

Now, I'm not saying that all the Steelers have to do is show up and they'll win.  Showing up is only the first step, with the other step being that they need to play like they play when they play.  If they stick to what has worked for them and avoid any of those catastrophic pairs, then they've got this one.

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Browns 13

Everything's Bigger in Texas: Steelers at Texans Preview

Well, so, since the cat is already out of the bag and Weidman and I both picked Houston in this week's Pick Em, I'm going to talk about why I think the Texans will win, then about what the Steelers would need to do to pull off an upset.

The reason I think Houston will win is that they don't need to do anything special to dispatch the Steelers and move to 3-1.  In order to win, they need to run a balanced offense and play well enough on defense.  They've been able to do both those things thus far this season, aside from their total collapse in the fourth quarter against the Saints in Week 3.  They have almost a 50/50 run/pass ratio, they're averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt, and they've held opposing quarterbacks to an 82.1 rating.  Now, that's not a great track record on defense, but it's good enough.  Also consider the fact that they playing against Drew Brees last week and Brees had three touchdown passes in the final quarter alone.

Texans coach Gary Kubiak knows that his team has an exceptional record when they run the ball 30 times or more in a game.  Even if Arian Foster still isn't at 100%, Ben Tate should be a more than sufficient substitute, especially if the Steeler run defense can't get their act together.  There was once a time, way back in 2010, when you couldn't run on the Steelers at all, so you didn't even try.  You'd take your chances passing the ball every down and hope that you had the talent to light them up and blockers capable enough to keep pass rushers at bay.  This season, teams are averaging 4.6 yards per carry against the Steelers.  If Houston runs the ball 30 times at 4.6 yards per attempt, that's 138 yards rushing, which will be more than enough to keep the pass defense off balance.

There are two ways to stop a strong pass rush: Run the ball effectively and Block well.  There are other, more subtle ways, but those are the most sure-fire ways to keep your quarterback upright.  The Texans can do both.   Matt Schaub has shown himself to be more than capable.  He's playing at home and Houston is looking to bounce back from a humiliating loss to the Saints (just the way the game played out, New Orleans is a good team and there's no real shame in losing to them).

Since they know that they will be able to run the ball effectively, they'll certainly come out and try to run it.  Once they start running the ball well and get the Steeler defense back-pedaling, they'll start to throw the ball.  They'll have success with that, because their offense will be balanced and the Steelers will be off balance.  It will play out much as it did against the hated Ravens, but I don't think the game will get that ugly, primarily because I don't think the Texans will force seven turnovers.

I think the Texans will use a balanced offense to build a comfortable lead and that will be enough of a cushion so that they continue to just play well enough on defense.  I just don't think the Steelers have enough on offense to keep up with Houston and they aren't good enough on defense to stop the Texans if they're running the ball well and have that 50/50 ratio working for them.

But, if they can stop Houston from running all over them, then they have a shot.  In my opinion, the Texans aren't as loaded in the passing game as everyone seems to think they are.  Schaub is a great quarterback, Foster is a very skilled receiver out of the backfield, Andre Johnson is outstanding, and Owen Daniels is one of the better tight ends in the league.  Yes, that's a lot of talent and a lot of weapons, but that's pretty much where it stops.  Their other receivers -- most notably Kevin Walter, who has gone from, "one of the best #2 receivers in the league," to, "that guy Schaub throws to when the other team triple covers Andre Johnson" -- aren't that great.  On top of that, Schaub only completes 56 percent of his passes when the opposing team rushes five or more guys.  So, stop the run, blitz the hell out of Schaub, hope for a turnover.

On offense, the Steelers need to run the ball effectively.  That doesn't mean they need to run the ball a lot.  I'm not looking for Ike Redman and Rashard Mendenhall to get 20 carries each.  They just need to do about a yard or a yard and a half better than they the 3.3 yards per carry they've been averaging thus far this season.  Since the "Block Well" option probably isn't going to happen, they need to run the ball to keep the pass rush honest.  Houston doesn't have a spectacular pass rush -- and they certainly don't have a couple of flying murderballs like Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis -- but they're plenty good enough to sack Ben Roethlisberger if they're allowed to pin their ears back and come running as soon as he says "hut."  The offensive line is going to feature two new starters, with Trai Essex in at left tackle and Ramon Foster in at right guard, so they'll need to create that half second of hesitation in the pass rush to have any prayer of protecting Roethlisberger.

The ultimate winning strategy is to keep the game close in the fourth quarter, since the Texans are known choke artists and this is one of the bigger games in the franchise's history.  For the Steelers, it's just Game 4 on their 2011 schedule.  If Houston doesn't come out and blow the Steelers off the field in the first half and the game stays close late, then the chests of the Texans players will start to tighten.  Even at that point, the Steelers will need to make the necessary clutch plays to win the game.

All this means that there is an extremely slim chance that the Steelers get out of Texas with a win.

Prediction:
Texans 30, Steelers 20

Seahawks at Steelers Preview

I stalled on this one for two reasons.  First, I had to turn in my picks for our new Pick Em series.  Second, I really wasn't sure what to write, aside from, "The Steelers really, really should win this game."

So, the Steelers really, really should win this game.

I don't think that Seattle is a horrible team and, even if they're a west coast team playing at 1 p.m. Eastern time on the road, I don't think that they're that much worse than the Steelers.  The line for this game opened at 16, which is fairly insane.  I think enough people took advantage of that crazy line and it eventually moved to 14.  But, then I guess enough crazy, drunken Steeler fans saw that as easy money and it moved back to 15.  I think that 15 is just as crazy a line.

Don't get me wrong, I believe the Steelers will definitely win on Sunday.  I just don't think they'll win by 15.  I could see a ten point victory or even two touchdowns, but they'd need a 31-14 or 31-13 win and I don't think the offense is ready to score that many points.  After all, who would be dumb enough to predict a 31-13 final?

You can talk all you want about talent on defense and the potential the Steelers have on offense.  You can talk about how Tavarris Jackson is a dreadful, dreadful quarterback and Ben Roethlisberger is a top-five guy, but the fact remains that Jackson had a higher passer rating in Week 1 than Roethlisberger.  The Seahawks actually played a solid defensive game against the 49ers last week, they just played absolutely crappy special teams.  This could be a close game or even a Seattle win if the Steelers turn the ball over seven times or they have a couple of meltdowns on special teams.

Having said that, I also picked the Steelers in my NFL Survivor Pool this week, so I still think they're going to win.

When you play as badly as the Steelers did against the hated Ravens in Week 1, you have a long list of things to fix.  It would be naive to think that all those issues could suddenly be resolved in the space of seven days, just because our guys are "mad and determined" and their guys are "not very good."  Our guys are mad and determined and their guys aren't very good, but that doesn't mean this turns into a blowout.  This week and next week are all about getting a little bit better each time, rounding into regular season form, and hopefully picking up a couple of victories in the process.

Seattle may be a force in few years because they have a lot of youth and a lot of talent.  Currently, their coach is Pete Carroll and their quarterback is Tavarris Jackson, so I can't say they scare me.

In addition, this game gives Marcus Gilbert an opportunity to ease into the starting right tackle job.  The Steelers talked to Flozell Adams after Willie Colon went on injured reserve, but Adams was asking for the sky.  They signed some dude named Jamon Meredith for insurance, but, in the end, they did what they always do: They went in-house.  I think that's the right move.  Meredith would be a plug-in guy and Adams would be an extremely expensive band aid.  Maybe Colon comes back next year and plays well, or maybe he's discovered to be too fragile to be depended upon.  If he can't be depended upon, then the Steelers would be stuck in the same situation going into camp next year that they were this year: Adams is old and expensive and isn't the future.

When the Steelers drafted Gilbert, I originally thought he'd be a great fit at right tackle.  I had also assumed that Max Starks -- another big guy that played left tackle at Florida and needed to make the transition to the right side -- would be able to work with Gilbert and keep him from making the same mistakes Starks made.  Well, Starks got cut, Gilbert was hurt early in training camp, then he spent all of his time at left tackle.  Adams made a pretty smooth transition to the right side and that was after a lifetime of playing left tackle.  Gilbert should need less time, but more attention, since he's doesn't have to unlearn as many left tackle habits, but he needs to be trained on how to play right tackle.

Gilbert is a good move for now and for the future.  But, I'm also thinking that he'll need some time and attention, which is why it's good that he didn't have to jump in and make his first start at right tackle against the hated Ravens or Patriots.  He gets this week to get his feet wet and get settled, then he has Robert Mathis next week.  I hope he's ready.

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Seahawks 17

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Hated Ravens

As far as good news is concerned, there isn't much to report:

1. I have Mike Wallace on my fantasy team, so that's at least something.
2. As my buddy Dan pointed out earlier today, we don't have to carry the stress of an undefeated season hanging over our heads.  We can relax in the knowledge that the Steelers are going to go 16-0 this season and we don't have to worry about it every week.
3. According to NFL bylaws, the Steelers will only be given one loss for yesterday's performance, instead of the three or four losses that they deserve.  That means that they're only 0-1 and there's a lot of season left to be played.
4. Ike Taylor looked good and effectively took Lee Evans out of the game.

There's lots of bad news, though:

1. The offensive line played pretty crappy.
2. Ben Roethlisberger got abused and was still in the game late in the fourth quarter, even though there was no chance for a comeback.
3. Rashard Mendenhall looked really tentative heading into the hole after that bumbled exchange/fumble in the third quarter.  He started out pretty strong, but the hated Ravens took him out of the game in the fourth quarter since the Steelers had to start throwing every down.
4. Seven turnovers.
5. Looks like Willie Colon got hurt.  Again.  So that's awesome.
6. The defense might have looked younger and more active had 74 year old Dick LeBeau thrown on some pads and ran out on to the field.
7. Bryant McFadden -- who I've defended in the past -- looked awful and the Steelers really need to think about getting Keenan Lewis or William Gay in there.
8. The Baltimore players were awfully proud of themselves after the game, which means they might not shut up about this victory until the Steelers play the hated Ravens again in November.  
9. My horribly, horribly misguided Preview will be on the Internet forever.
10. The biggest thing I got wrong in that Preview was that the hated Ravens were very, very ready for this game and the Steelers were absolutely not ready.
11. There were a lot of things that went wrong yesterday, but the biggest thing that concerned me was the way Baltimore blew the Steelers off the line on both sides of the ball.  Sure, it is possible that the guys on defense are older and slower, but they didn't get any smaller or weaker with age.  On offense, the line should have an advantage (I guess that's just in theory) because they know where they're supposed to go at the snap.  The defense shouldn't be able to jump to the ball faster than the offense because (again, in theory, since this isn't what we saw yesterday) they're supposed to be reacting and shouldn't know what's coming.

Now, for some perspective.

It's only one game and this is no time to panic.  They're not going to turn the ball over seven times in a game again this season.  Baltimore has a really good team and they played almost flawlessly yesterday.  The Steelers looked like a big pile of steaming crap, no doubt, but a big part of that was that the hated Ravens played exceptionally well.

The offensive line will play better.  In general, it would be difficult for the team to play much worse, so they will all play better in the next 15 games.  It will probably be several years before we see Roethlisberger play another stinker like that.

The pass rush will improve; playing against a much crappier team like the Seahawks or Manning-less Colts will help that along.

As I see it, the primary issue with the defense yesterday was that they were out of position for most of the game.  That made them have to hustle into position to get to the play.  When they got in position, they weren't able to square up and tackle.  This is responsible for two issues: The fact that they looked really slow and old and the fact that their tackling fundamentals were atrocious.

Pretty much everyone looks slow and old when they're chasing after Ray Rice.  Additionally, chasing guys down all day wears you out and makes you move even slower.  In previous seasons, LeBeau was able to insulate his guys from this by setting it out so that the play was always in front of them.  They were behind the play and doing a lot of chasing because the hated Ravens ran a lot of plays outside the hashmarks and most of the defense was jammed up in the middle of the field.  I'm sure the defense will be more spread out on Sunday against Seattle.  I'm sure the focus will be on getting to the quarterback and keeping everything in front of them.

McFadden does not get a pass on this.  You don't let Anquan Boldin get behind you if you give him a seven yard cushion at the snap.  That should never happen.

The other good news is that the Steelers know they have a lot of stuff they need to fix.  They may be able to fix everything by the time they play the Seahawks, but the other other good news is that they probably don't need to fix everything until they play Houston in Week 4, since they should be able to beat Seattle and the Colts without being 100% together.

And, hey, this also means that the Steelers will be the ones out for revenge come November.

Finally Football: Steelers at Hated Ravens Preview

At some point Thursday morning, I convinced myself that the Steelers were going to blow the hated Ravens out (win by at least two touchdowns).  I spent a lot of time between then and now trying to convince myself that it was a really, really dumb idea to think that.

I have been unsuccessful in being convincing enough to unconvince myself.  Therefore, I'm going to talk about why the Steelers will trounce Baltimore on Sunday.

The biggest reason is the fact that I think I overrated the hated Ravens.  I think that, even though I hate them more than any other professional sports team, I also respect and admire them.  I think that respect and admiration -- as well as all the positive press that has been flying around about them -- clouded my judgment.  The simple fact of the matter is that the hated Ravens are limited on both sides of the ball.

They have Ray Rice on offense and Rice is a fantastic player.  Aside from Rice, they have Lee Evans, who hasn't been relevant in some time, and Anquan Boldin, who caught all of 64 passes last year.  I think that Joe Flacco is a good quarterback.  At times he is a great quarterback.  His problem is that the Steelers make him look average.

On defense, they're very similar to the Steelers in that they have a lot of talent in the front seven, an outstanding safety, and marginal cornerbacks.  This means they're vulnerable in the secondary if the front seven doesn't get enough pressure.  That's the basic weakness of the Steeler defense, but the big difference is that Dick LeBeau seems to have successfully coached his cornerbacks to the point where they realize their limitations and don't take risks.  I don't see that with the Baltimore cornerbacks.  That means that they are vulnerable deep, which is where the Steelers like to throw the ball.  The Steelers have also shown a tendency in the preseason -- and have mentioned in interviews -- that they think they have the talent on offense to throw the ball a lot and score a bunch of points.

If you take a defense that struggles when it doesn't get pressure (hated Ravens posted only 27 sacks in 2010), add marginal cornerbacks that gamble too much, and put them up against an offense that will throw the ball a lot and likes to throw deep, it's a bad combination for that defense.  When you couple that with an offense that doesn't have much firepower that is run by a quarterback that struggles against the Steelers, you get a blowout.

Also, I keep thinking about the season opener in 2003.  The Steelers tuned up a high-powered offense in the preseason and hosted the hated Ravens at Heinz Field.  Everyone was expecting a tight, hard-hitting game, with very little scoring and a high quantity of three yards and a pile of dust.  Instead, Baltimore got smoked 34-15.  You could tell by watching that game that the Steelers were ready for the season to start and the hated Ravens were not.

In last night's game, you could tell that the Saints and Packers were ready for the season to start.  I think the Steelers are ready for the season to start.  I think the hated Ravens have added just the right number of new faces that they're not ready.  I think the Steelers will be a half step faster -- like they were in 2003 -- and they'll score quickly, like they did in 2003.  The hated Ravens will then start to overcompensate, because this is a bigger game for them (home game, they probably circled this game in April when the schedule came out, they've been looking to get past the Steelers since 2008).  The cornerbacks are going to start to gamble, the safeties will start to cheat, and we'll have the same situation as in 2003, where the hated Ravens made Jay Freakin' Riemersma look like an all-star.

It's entirely possible that I'm an idiot and it would not be the first time that I was proven to be horribly, horribly wrong.  It's very possible that the Steelers will not be ready for the blitz -- even though they must know it's coming -- just like they weren't ready against the Saints last season.  Ray Rice could take over this game all by himself.

It's just my opinion that the hated Ravens aren't ready to make that happen just yet.

Prediction:
Steelers 31, Hated Ravens 13

AFC North Preview

As I see it, this division breaks down to a couple of two-team races.

The Bengals and Browns are battling for third place, with the loser finishing last.  The Steelers and hated Ravens are battling for first place, with the loser finishing second.

As far as the first "race" is concerned, I think the Browns finish on top.  They seem more together, they have more talent, and they have a better owner.  Also, they have the cross-state rivalry with the Bengals and the one-sided rivalry with the Steelers.  The games are far more important to them than they are to the other team.  They're more important to the fans -- who still exist in Cleveland, which is surprising -- and the fans will show up, with a number of Browns faithful probably making the trip to Cincinnati for a road game.

Everyone in the AFC North gets to play the same, cushy schedule against the NFC West and the AFC South, which, for the time being, is minus Peyton Manning and has two rebuilding teams in the Titans and the Jaguars.  The two teams on the bottom half of the standings could take advantage of the soft schedule and bring the general record of the division up in the process.  But... there will probably be some Cardinals-Browns and 49ers-Bengals games later in the season that are only relevant for fantasy purposes.

For the other race in the division, that is a more complicated question.  Since the start of the 2008 season -- the beginning of the John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco Era -- the hated Ravens are 32-16 and the Steelers are 33-15.  (Side Note: Given John Harbaugh's success, at what point do we start referring to Jim Harbaugh as "John Harbaugh's Brother"?  Jim will, no doubt, crash and burn in San Francisco as a former college coach moving to a broken franchise with weak owners.  Once Jim starts to fail, this movement needs to start.)  The Steelers have two division titles and two playoff appearances, the hated Ravens have won zero division titles, but have been to the playoffs three times.  Baltimore wants to get to the Super Bowl and the Steelers are in the way.  In order to get where they need to get, the hated Ravens need to knock the Steelers out.

When the lockout ended, Baltimore cut Willis McGahee, Kelly Gregg, Todd Heap, and Derrick Mason.  I thought that they were purging their roster and starting a rebuilding process.  Then I realized that it was 2011 and not 2008 and that the hated Ravens were trying to cut some dead weight.  The Steelers effectively lost Flozell Adams and Max Starks, but the offensive line has looked at least equivalent this preseason.   The teams are basically even.

It will come down to Joe Flacco versus Ben Roethlisberger this season.  History says that we should back Roethlisberger.  Flacco did a good job with a marginal receiving corps last season.  This season, the team subtracted Mason and added Lee Evans.  Their top two guys are Anquan Boldin and Lee Evans.  Once again, it's 2011 and not 2008.

I think the Steelers and hated Ravens will beat common opponents and that the Steelers will get the best of Baltimore.

Thus, with a 12-4 record, the Steelers win the division.  I think they get the better of the hated Ravens over the course of the season.   I think that the difference will be Ben Roethlisberger over Joe Flacco.

For anyone that takes issue with this prediction, I would like to remind you that the name of this blog is "Steelers N At" and not "Ravens Rule, Hon!"  I try to remove myself from my fandom as much as possible, but sometimes emotion and team loyalty get in the way.

Official Predictions:

1. Steelers (12-4)
2. Hated Ravens (11-5)
3. Cleveland Browns (7-9)
4. Bengals (5-11)

Preseason Review: Falcons at Steelers

Well, I had to jinx Maurkice Pouncey.  I had to talk about how he's the best guy on the line and how he gives the line some much-needed stability.  Then, last night, he goes out and hurts his ankle.  His injury didn't seem as severe as the knee injury sustained by Keenan Lewis or Byron Leftwich's broken arm, but it's still significant.  If it's a high ankle sprain or a break, Pouncey probably won't be able to make it for the start of the regular season.

That's really the only bad news that came out of last night's game.  The defense gave up a lot of yards and seemed to be in full-on retreat mode for most of the first half, but they were able to (mostly) hold things together in the red zone.  The score could've gotten way more out of hand if they hadn't held the Falcons to field goals inside the 20.

It looks like Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White are all worth grabbing for Fantasy purposes.  White had eight catches for 101 yards and a touchdown on ten targets in just the first half.  Jones would've had a much more productive night if he had been able to hang onto that 48-yard bomb from Ryan in the second quarter.  It also looks like Michael Turner will not have a productive season.  I know it's only the preseason and it's no time to panic, but he just looked slow to the hole and finished with 19 yards on seven carries.  He got 11 of those yards on one run.  With great blocking and a big hole, he wasn't able to explode into that hole the way he used to.  The old Michael Turner probably would've gained 30 yards or so when given that kind of opportunity.

Ultimately, I think this game came down to the fact that the Steelers made big plays when they had the opportunity and Atlanta did not.  If Jones hangs on to that touchdown, the game is very different.  If Antonio Brown isn't able to get his feet under him and split the safeties, he gets tackled before he can scamper off for a 77-yard touchdown.  I'm not discounting any of those plays.  The Steelers still had to make those plays and you can't look at this game without putting them in there.  But, the Falcons ran 86 plays to the Steelers' 51.  Atlanta had 25 first downs, the Steelers had 15.  I understand that the goal is to score in as few plays as possible, but this defense isn't going to hold together -- for an entire game or for the balance of the season -- if they have to face 86 plays every week.  On average, you give up a lot more than 16 points when you face 86 plays.

The Falcons were 10-for-20 on third downs.  That means that, not only did they convert on half of their opportunities, they also faced third down a full 20 times in this game.  That's a lot of chances for the Steelers to get off the field, but it's also way too many chances for the other team to stay on it.  If the first team played both halves on both sides, I have a feeling that the defense would have eventually caved in.  They actually did a good job of containing Ryan -- he completed only 52 percent of his passes, threw an interception, and his quarterback rating was 65.6 -- but they also let him throw 42 passes in the first half.  He had 42 attempts in one half of football.  Yes, Lewis went down in the first half and McFadden and Taylor didn't suit up for the game, but that's a ridiculously high number.  Teams are going to focus on spreading the Steelers out and throwing the ball all season, so I guess we had better get used to it.

I thought the offensive line played well in pass protection, especially considering that the Falcons were blitzing like crazy.  I also think that, after the last two weeks, the teams on the Steelers schedule this season realize that blitzing Ben Roethlisberger is a bad idea.  That's unfortunate, because most of the big plays he's made thus far came against the blitz.  I also think that the Atlanta coaches called that insane, jail break, Cover 0 blitz in the second quarter just to see what would happen.  I think the whole team came on that thing, with Mike Smith sprinting in from the sidelines.  I doubt we'll see that in their playbook once the 2011 season kicks off.

The bad news on the offensive line is that the same issue that has plagued the team since 2008 is still there: I doubt that we'll be able to run for one yard when we absolutely, positively need to.  Mendenhall didn't have a lot of room to run and his stats were padded by that touchdown on the first series (yes, I'm aware that it was a one-yard score, but I stick by what I said).  None of the running backs saw a lot of daylight, which means that this could be a passing offense that struggles in the red zone... kinda like how the Falcons looked last night.

On defense, I think the front seven is ready for the season to start.  Lewis -- if healthy -- and Gay have gained some valuable experience and the Steelers are going to need four quality cornerbacks if last night is any indication (and it is).  The secondary should be fine, provided Troy and Ryan Clark stay healthy, since they seem to be able to cover up for a lot of the shortcomings of the cornerbacks.

Of course, Antonio Brown is awesome.  He played an outstanding game and was running with the first team.  But, I think everyone needs to temper their optimism and realize that this is the preseason.  Yes, Brown had 246 total yards and two touchdowns last night, but Crezdon Butler also led the team in tackles and had a 95-yard interception return for a touchdown.  I believe that Brown has locked down the third receiver job and I think he's going to be very involved in the offense this season.

I also heard that, in a recent Fantasy Football draft, someone took Brown in the fourth round.  That is more than a little crazy.  The plays that Brown scored on last night both looked really familiar and I couldn't figure out why at first.  I eventually realized that they were kinds of plays usually called with Mike Wallace in mind.  I think that the Steelers coaches were testing Brown to see what he could do in those situations and they were very pleased with the results.  But, being pleased with the results and giving Wallace's touches to Brown are two different things entirely.  Ward and Wallace will still be the main guys in this group and they'll get most of the targets in the passing game.  It's good to know that Brown will be able to do a lot with the opportunities he gets when he gets them.

With one game left to go, I have to say they look pretty solid.  Let's just hope they escape next week without any major injuries.

Five Random Thoughts

Here are five items that weren't long enough to be a full post...

1. I think the Terrell Pryor suspension is bogus and it's not just because he's from here.  I understand if the NCAA wants to do something to him or if Ohio State wants to negate his college credits that he accrued while attending the university.  I don't understand why the NFL has any jurisdiction.  Pryor is an adult now and he has moved on from whatever happened in college.  If any employer judged me on what I did in college right after I graduated, I would not have gotten my first job.  Or, maybe, I would've gotten the job, it's just that I would be suspended for about a year.
2. Thinking about the Pryor thing, it seems to me that we've just witnessed a very corrupt era in college football that dates back at least to Reggie Bush.  Everyone has been punished.  There has, essentially, been another SMU Death Penalty handed out.  Hopefully, that will keep everything clean for a little while.  It seems like, for the past decade or so, if you ain't cheatin' you ain't playin'.  That's bad for the NCAA, so I think they will take swift and extreme measures to fix the problem (and they already have in a lot of ways).
3. From the Captain Obvious Desk, ESPN posted an article today suggesting that the Indianapolis Colts waited too long to think about life without Peyton Manning.  Manning makes that whole team go.  For years -- basically since they started deluding themselves into believing that Jim Sorgi was a suitable back-up -- they have been one torn ACL or other severe injury away from destroying the team's season.  The time to address this issue wasn't six months ago, it was several years ago.  They needed to have a Charlie Batch on the roster since about 2007 and they didn't get it done.  Now, they face the consequences.
4. I think the new kickoff rule favors the Steelers significantly.  Not only does it even field position since they haven't had a solid kick returner in several years, but it makes it so that teams will need to drive 80 yards on the Steeler defense in order to score.  That's huge, since one of the things that wore the defense out/led to more points being scored last season, was the fact that the coverage team was not great and usually set up the opposing team at about the 35 or 40 yard line.  If Steeler kickers can register touchbacks, that sets the defense up for success.  As an aside, Peter King Tweeted last week that 79.5 percent of kickoffs were returned in 2010 and that, if that number fell to 60 percent, it wouldn't be a big deal.  That's kind of shocking, since that's taking away 20 percent of all kickoff returns.  Remember, there's one at the beginning of each half and one after each score.  Let's say, on average, there are eight kickoffs a game.  With 16 teams playing 16 games a week, that's 256 games and 2048 kickoffs a year.  Take 20 percent off that and you're taking away about 410 kickoffs a year. I would say that's a big deal.
5. I think that Clint Hurdle has done a great job as a manager this year.  Let me say that right off the bat.  I think the team is languishing about 15-20 games under .500 at this point in the season without his energy and motivation.  Having said that, he's either reading a book called "Managing a Baseball Team for Dummies" or he's playing it safe.  Since he seems like a sharp dude, the smart money is on the second one.  But, he always goes for lefty-lefty match-ups when making pitching decisions, always stacks the line-up with right handed batters when a lefty is pitching, and always bunts when there are runners on first and second with less than two outs.  All these decisions are made regardless of the situation.  They're all smart decisions percentage-wise, but decisions can't be made in a vacuum.  I've seen him bring in Joe Beimel when the starter was still going strong.  I've seen him call for a bunt with Andrew McCutchen -- the team's best hitter -- at the plate with two men on and less than two outs.  He did the same thing with Alex Presley when Presley had an OPS over 1.000.  The thing Hurdle needs to realize is that he's playing with house money.  He kept the Pirates relevant well into July and, in the eyes of the fans, can do no wrong.  He can't win the division or the wild card at this point, so he needs to focus on building the confidence of the players.  If he's confident in them, they'll be confident in themselves.  Let a pitcher work his way out of a jam.  Leave a hot hitter in the line-up even if he bats on the left side and the pitcher you're facing happens to be left handed.  Let Cutch and Presley hit.  Let your starter work his way out of a jam.  If you lose, you lose the game.  Losing games is not a new thing for the Pirates; confident players are a new thing.  Hurdle is playing it too safe and should let his guys win or lose the game based on their efforts, not what the book says. 

Preseason Game 2 Review

I have to come clean.  I didn't watch the first preseason game.  The Arena Bowl was on (read Weidman's review, because it's awesome), then I went out of town for the rest of the weekend, then I didn't watch the recording because I read a lot about the game and figured I knew enough from that.

Also in the interest of full disclosure: I'm started this at halftime of the Steelers-Eagles game, because the second half will mostly just determine whether the third and fourth string guys for the Steelers are better than the third and fourth string guys for Philly.  In this game, at least, the first string guys for the Steelers dominated.

What I Liked:

1. Hey, so, we all know that Michael Vick had a really crappy game.  He looked lost and he forced several passes into double coverage.  The key for the Steeler defense is that they made him pay for those mistakes.  One of the biggest issues last year's unit had was that they didn't force a lot of turnovers.  Even if it was the preseason and Vick looked like he just graduated from Virginia Tech, it was still nice to see.
2. Troy sure doesn't look like he's coming back from an injury.  He was all over the place.  If it weren't for a pretty nice tackle by Vick, maybe Troy goes all the way on that interception return.  Credit for that interception should go to LaMarr Woodley, though.  Dude's supposed to be a rush linebacker, but he was 25 yards back in coverage and pivoted, jumped, and threw his arm up to tip that ball so Troy could pick it.
3. Lots of nice pressure, mostly by rushing just four guys.  The blitzes, when they came, were well timed and pretty exotic.  I didn't know Ryan Clark was allowed to blitz.  Turns out getting juked out of a sack was the best thing that could've happened on that play (led to the Polamalu interception after Vick scrambled).  Clark also did a good job of playing possum, then jumping on the ball on his interception (another throw into double coverage by Vick).
4. Defensive line should be in real good shape -- especially Casey Hampton and I'm sorry I said he'd check in at 400 pounds after the lockout -- and should be able to weather the injury when Aaron Smith goes on IR in Week 8.
5. Maybe the injuries to Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden have a silver lining.  Keenan Lewis and William Gay got a lot of reps against Philly's first team offense and they looked sharp.
6. Ben Roethlisberger has very strong hands. Mrs. Roethlisberger and a number of ladies in the Atlanta area are probably already aware of this fact, but I want to mention it.  That was a brilliant pump fake on the Antonio Brown touchdown.
7. The offense, in general, looked great.  Lots of nice holes for Mendenhall and Redman, Roethlisberger had ample time when the Eagles didn't jail break blitz, and Brown seems like he's progressing nicely.  This was against was it supposed to be a top five defense.  I know, it's only the preseason, but it was still encouraging.
8. As happy as I was when Baron Batch was drafted and as much as I wanted him to replace Mewelde Moore as the team's third down back, I have to admit that Moore looked good.  Maybe, possibly, Mendenhall or Redman or Batch would've scored on that wheel route Moore caught when Philadelphia overloaded the right side on third and short in the second quarter.  But, hey, he caught the ball and he gained a bunch of yards, setting up that second touchdown.  As bummed as I am that Batch blew out his knee and ended up on injured reserve, I'm happy that Moore seems to have found the Fountain of 2008 and looks to be back to his old tricks.
9. Arnaz Battle is still alive, which adds depth at receiver and helps the Steelers out on special teams.
10. Time of possession in the first half was almost 24 minutes to six.  With an old defense, those long drives will pay off over the balance of the season.

What I Didn't Like:

What's not to like about a first half that ends with the Steelers holding a 21-0 lead?  This is more like a list of things that concern me.

1. Why isn't Jerricho Cotchery working with the first team?  Is he hurt?  Taking a long time to learn the system?  Past his prime?  I know it takes time to learn a new system, but some dude named Tyler Grisham was working as the fourth wide receiver.  Maybe there's nothing to it, but you gotta think that Cotchery should be able to beat out some kid... unless he's got nothing left in the tank.
2. Where was Mike Wallace?  I know he was on the field.  I saw him and everything.  But, zero catches for zero yards.  I still think he's a fantastic receiver with a tremendous future ahead of him.  My only issue is that he might have a down year this year.  With all the injuries along what was already a pretty depleted offensive line, I have to assume that the Steelers aren't going to throw deep a lot in 2011.  If they don't, that takes a whole lot of targets away from Wallace.  Fewer targets means fewer opportunities means fewer catches means fewer yards means fewer touchdowns.  Right now, the Steelers seem to be running a "Clear and Sweep" offense, where they send Wallace deep, half the secondary follows him, and then they pick the defense apart with routes under 15 yards.  Judging by tonight's results, this doesn't appear to be a bad thing for the offense in general, but it's not a good leading indicator for Wallace, especially for fantasy purposes.
3. Injuries.  Jonathan Scott and Marcus Gilbert both left the game with knee problems and Redman hurt his ankle.  Given those injuries, I would think that Tomlin would want to get his first team defense off the field after a strong showing.  He didn't.  So, that concerns me.
4. Even though Gay and Lewis played well, the pass defense will suffer if Taylor and McFadden can't be back for the start of the season.
5. Man, I sure hope Shaun Suisham is OK.  I was not impressed by Swayze Waters.
6. Second Half Note: Dennis Dixon threw a lot of fluttering, helicopter passes.  Some balls had some nice zip on them.  But, I wouldn't say he's in a position to demand a trade so he can compete for a starting job or a top back-up job.

All in all, a strong follow-up to what I read was a pretty dismal effort against the Redskins.  It's too early to start designing the Super Bowl rings just yet, but tonight's game was certainly promising.

Steelers Primer

Well, the lockout finally ended, the players and coaches are going back to work, and there have been roughly 6,054 transactions in the last few days.

The big question on everyone's mind -- at least in this little corner of the Internet -- is: How do the Steelers look?

The answer to that question is that they look both good and bad and that we'll know more on August 4th, which is the deadline for all teams to get under the salary cap.  In 2009, the cap was around $127 million, there was no cap in 2010, and the cap sits at about $120 million this season.  Heading into the post-lockout era, the Steelers were about $10 million over the new cap.

Out of those 6,054 transactions, the Steelers re-signed Shaun Suisham, Ike Taylor, Willie Colon, and Jonathan Scott.  The signings of Colon and Scott were particularly important, since they also cut Flozell Adams and Max Starks.  They cut Randle-El, but I'm not sure that's really important.  Without Scott and Colon, there was a .03 percent chance that I might be starting for the Steelers at left tackle this season.  While this would be an awesome development for me, it probably wouldn't have worked out too well for the Steelers.

Rumors that I've seen on Twitter and elsewhere say that LaMarr Woodley is close to signing a long term contract and there are five guys on the team that will probably restructure their contracts so that no one else will need to be cut from the roster.  In addition, it looks like Starks and Adams may come back eventually at a more palatable rate.  All these things will help them field a full team.

Taylor's contract was the biggest news of this truncated offseason.  He may not be a shutdown cornerback and he may have the worst hands in the league, but he's the best cover player on the team and was the best option available by far, if you assume they weren't going to sign Nnamdi Asomugha (they wouldn't, not in a million truncated free agent periods).  I didn't think the Steelers would pony up the money to re-sign Ike and I'm extremely happy that he's back.

With no mini-camps, rookie camps, and OTAs this offseason, everyone they drafted in April doesn't stand much a chance of contributing in 2011.  But, Tomlin hates rookies, so that's not a huge loss.  Maurkice Pouncey is not walking through that door.  Cameron Heyward will probably get some playing time after Aaron Smith goes on injured reserve and Curtis Brown and Cortez Allen will probably play on special teams and maybe, possibly, Baron Batch will get some third down reps as Verron Haynes Junior.

Currently, the starting five on the offensive line looks like this: Scott, Kemoeatu, Pouncey, Legursky/Foster, Colon.  That's not good.  I'd rather have Starks and Adams in there and I don't trust Scott, but that's mainly because he's an unknown quantity.  The offensive line actually played pretty well last season and held themselves together despite a rash of injuries, so lightning might strike twice.  If everyone stays healthy, they'll improve and grow together throughout the course of the season.  At least we know who's starting at center.

That's where they look bad.


Where they look good is everywhere else.  Mendenhall may be a fumble machine, but he has also performed well as the starter the past two seasons.  Ben Roethlisberger is an alleged rapist and a newlywed, but he's also one of the best quarterbacks in the league.  Mike Wallace and Hines Ward got the job done last season and Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown get the chance to build on what they accomplished late last season.

Everyone from last season's #1 scoring defense returns.  Troy is healthy.  James Harrison is angry.  Hopefully, Woodley will be happy after signing a sweet deal.  Clark, Taylor, McFadden, Keisel, Smith are all back and healthy.  I haven't heard anything about Jerry Springer needing to rescue Casey Hampton from being trapped on his couch.  Ziggy Hood had a great year last year and is currently starting ahead of Smith.  If they're lucky, Farrior won't have a letdown in 2011 after a solid 2010 like he did in 2009 after a solid 2008.  Lawrence Timmons is an outstanding player and should once again act as team assassin.

I have a feeling that we are going to see some absolutely sucktastic football in the month of September.  Guys haven't had the offseason to get ready.  Their timing will be off.  There will be blown assignments on defense.  There will be a lot of pre-snap penalties.  Any team that has been in the same system, running the same plays for years, will have an advantage.

Here are the guys that have been in the defense since Dick LeBeau took over in 2004: Smith, Taylor, Hampton, Keisel, Farrior, Polamalu, Harrison.  Of the remaining guys, Hood, Woodley, and Timmons have played their entire careers in the system. And Clark is the free safety.  The Steelers will have a decided advantage over most of the rest of the league because of their familiarity with the system.

On offense, here are the guys that have been in the Arians system since he took over in 2007: Ward, Roethlisberger, Miller.  Well... that list isn't as long.  But, Mendenhall, Wallace, Sanders, and Brown have been in this system their entire careers.  Everyone else is on the offensive line and we already talked about that.

Add in what, ostensibly, looks like an easy schedule against the AFC South and NFC West, and the Steelers are sitting pretty.

And... that's it.

Wait, what?  Off the field and the what now?

Ward got busted for a DUI, Mendenhall Tweeted some unfortunate things, and Harrison had bad things to say about everything going back to the Big Bang.  Many experts that make way more money than me have postulated that these distractions will erode the chemistry in the locker room and eventually tear the team apart.

For the most part, these experts view an NFL locker room as a delicate ecosystem where, if Mendenhall flaps his wings (get it? Flaps his wings?  Birds have wings?  Birds tweet?) then a tsunami is going to destroy the team.  Well, that could be in different locker rooms.  But, these guys have all been showering in front of each other for a long time.  They know each other.  They trust each other.  They all work together and have managed to keep off field stuff off the field.

Think of it like any working relationship.  Would your company fold if Bill in sales got a DUI?  Do you care about what Connie in marketing does on Twitter?  If Joe in operations said that everyone in HR was a bunch of idiots, would someone in HR refuse to give him a leave request form?  No, everyone would work together and do their jobs, because it's their job to do their jobs. 

Tomlin is too strong a leader and this locker room is too unified for some offseason indiscretions to tear it all down.  I think that they will have moved on from everything that happened during the lockout by the time the season starts, if they haven't all moved on already.

So, overall, the Steelers look good.  With a Woodley signing and some much-needed cap relief, they could be even better.

Barber and Buress

There have been rumblings that Tiki Barber is interested in the Pittsburgh Steelers. These rumblings have been fueled primarily by... Tiki Barber, to the point where, if you Google "tiki barber" the first suggestion you get is, "tiki barber steelers." He wants to play for a competitive team and the Steelers are a competitive team with a lot of veteran players. Well, Tiki, I'm sorry to say... no. Emphatically. No.

Take away the fact that he's 36 and left his wife to go bang an intern. We'll just take that right off the table (after mentioning it, because it's still important). The fact remains that he's a tailback and he's well over 30. Take away that and you are still faced with the fact that he retired following the 2006 season. You know who else retired following the 2006 season? Bill Cowher. Right? Seems like a long time ago. That's because it is.

You know who else retired in 2006? My Dad. Six months after he retired, we were supposed to meet at his house on a Saturday to move some stuff. He called me and left me a message at work that Saturday, saying that he needed to push the time back and asked if that would work for me. I had been working a 9-5 job for six years at that point. This is not to say that my Dad is a feeble-minded old man. He's not. This is just making the point that, when you're out of the game, you lose things. You lose your "edge" for lack of a better word. In games played at the NFL level, you cannot afford to lose that edge. Most teams know this and Barber will discover it. On top of all that, the Steelers would really only have interest in Tiki's brother Rhonde, since he plays cornerback and they need more of those. They should be all set at running back, especially if they retain Mewelde Moore.

For similar reasons, the Steelers should -- and probably will -- say no to Plaxico Burress. Take all the "out of the action" stuff for Barber and add, "because he was in prison." Remember when Jamal Lewis went to prison? There you go. For every Michael Vick example, there are a bunch of Jamal Lewis examples. Actually, Vick is the only guy that came back from prison and was worth something. That was also in his second season after he returned. The Steelers have enough talent at receiver -- and enough holes to fill elsewhere -- that they can afford to pass on Burress.

According to NFL.com, Burress is going to meet with the Steelers on Friday or Saturday.  He has a history with the team and my guess is that Ben Roethlisberger rallied pretty hard for Coach Tomlin to meet with Burress.  I thinking this is just a courtesy meeting, but there may be something there.  I'm also thinking that the Giants will be able to offer Burress a better contract, since the Steelers were already over the salary cap before they signed Ike Taylor.

This team needs to get younger, not older.  They usually sign their guys before signing free agents.  For all these reasons, I don't think there's anything there.

Steelers Draft Review: 2011

Another draft is in the books.

Historically, I have had a tendency to freak out about the Steelers first round draft picks, but not this year.  Or last year.  I had quite a freak-out run from 2003-2007, though, even if I did actually like the Polamalu pick in 2003 (thought they gave up too much to move up) and the Heath Miller pick in 2005 (because it would be a wasted pick since they never throw to the tight end).  That is all behind me.  For now.

I would have preferred it if they had drafted Derrek Sherrod -- who was available at 31st overall -- but I'm not sure if that's because I wanted them to take him to help the team, or if I just wanted to be right.  Cameron Heyward -- son of former Saints running back Ironhead Heyward -- was not really on my radar, which is why I said I didn't think there were any good 3-4 end prospects in this draft.  That was an oversight on my part and I apologize.  In return for your pain and suffering, I offer you a full refund.

With Ziggy Hood already in place and Heyward coming in, the average age of the defensive line has been upgraded from "death" to "middle-aged," which is a very, very good thing.

Now that they have two potentially solid defensive ends who are both first round picks, the weight of expectations can be shared equally between Heyward and Hood.  That means that Hood doesn't make or break the 2009 draft and Heyward doesn't make or break this one.

I think that Heyward has the tools and the talent to add an extra dimension to the pass rush, especially when paired with Hood.  Since 1992, the Steelers have had only one good pass rushing end (Ray Seals) and one decent one (Aaron Smith, but he has declined over the years).  You could throw Brett Keisel into the mix, probably between decent and good, but he really doesn't have a broad enough body of work to draw any real conclusions.  With those two at end and the linebackers the Steelers have on the roster, they may be able to bring more heat on the quarterback than they have in the past couple of years, which is bad news for the rest of the league.  The good news for the Steelers is that I don't think there will be a dropoff in terms of run defense, which is less of a good thing when you realize that means teams will just throw the ball 50 times a game on them.  But, go back to the pass rushing boost and the defense might actually be better than it was in 2010, which is extraordinarily good news.

I was in New Orleans during the draft, so I was really just grabbing updates on my phone as the picks came through.  I took a closer look when I got back -- then a little more research this morning when I got into work -- and I have to say that my estimation of this year's haul has gone from "solid" to "awesome."  The reason for the substantial upgrade in my appraisal is that I took a good look at the guys they landed in rounds 2-7 and I feel they tabbed a bunch of potentially great players.

I say "potentially" because I -- just like everyone else -- have no real idea how these guys are going to do.  I blasted the 2007 draft class and that brought us Timmons, Woodly, Vulva, Cameron Stephenson, and Gay.  Also, Matt Spaeth, but we'll look past that.  It's not exactly the 1974 class, but they've gotten a great deal of tremendous play out of the first three guys and some quality starting time out of the last two.  For a seven round draft, that ain't bad.

When I saw that they drafted Marcus Gilbert in the second round, I was like, "Oh, interesting.  There might be three Gators on the offensive line next year."  Today, I found out the following things:

1. He's about the same size as Max Starks.
2. He can play any position on the offensive line, but is probably best suited playing right tackle (see #1).
3. His father is a secret service agent.

Well, #3 is just cool.  For #1 and #2, it ties everything together.

Florida offensive linemen are usually huge and well-trained, but the knock on them is that they don't tend to have mean streaks and their mechanics are usually out of whack.  Starks started at right tackle, but he wasn't mean enough and he wasn't strong enough.  He's a good fit at left tackle, but Gilbert would be a bad fit because he has short arms and flat fleet.

Basically, I'm hoping that Starks sits Gilbert down and says, "Hey, I've got left tackle set up for a while.  I think you're better than Willie Colon and I think Colon will be a better guard than a tackle.  When I first came here, I struggled at right tackle for the following reasons.  Work your way through those issues and you and I will be playing here with Maurkice for a long time."

If Colon plays right guard and Legursky plays left guard, the Steelers might actually have a good offensive line in 2011. Not bad, not serviceable, not decent, actually good.  Provided Gilbert lives up to his potential and Starks helps him out.

I like both cornerbacks.  I think they both need to hit the weight room and the buffet line.  They'd be normal sized anywhere else in the world, but they're a little scrawny to play cornerback, especially for the Steelers, where they'll be asked to step up in run support pretty frequently.  I like Cortez Allen a little more than Curtis Brown because Allen's taller and he comes from a small school (Citadel).  I think that will give him extra motivation to succeed and he has the frame to be about as big as Ike Taylor.

They both seem to have about as much catching ability as Taylor, but that's fine.  I think the more important thing is that they be able to cover receivers and tackle ball carriers.  I also think that the Steelers will re-sign Taylor, so that gives these two prospects a little time to get adjusted -- much like with Gay and McFadden when they first got started in the league.

I love Christopher Carter. He's fast, he played defensive end in college, he's about the right size (maybe too short, but they said that about James Harrison), and he's an aggressive player.  The book on him is that he'll probably struggle to learn how to play outside linebacker in the 3-4, particularly in coverage.  The same could be said for James Harrison.  And LaMarr Woodley.  And Chad Brown.  And Joey Porter.  And Jason Gildon.  And Greg Lloyd.  I think you get the idea.

I think what struck me about this year's draft -- the first five picks in particular -- was that the Steelers grabbed a bunch of guys that are really good for the team.  They didn't get flashy guys or grab a bunch of players that the "experts" had rated higher just because they were looking to draft for value.  They saw what they needed and filled the holes in their roster with guys that could either step right in -- like Heyward and Gilbert -- or guys that could wait a couple years to develop before making solid contributions, like Brown, Allen, and Carter.  Since Tomlin hates rookies, they should all have a chance to observe and learn, which is an especially important detail given the fact that there will be no rookie mini-camps and that training camp will probably be cut short.

They rounded everything out by taking a couple of guys late that will serve as extra bodies when the players in front of them go down with injuries.  There's nothing really special about Keith Williams.  He's a guard from Nebraska.  He's about the right height and weight to play the position and he comes from a program that likes to run the ball.  He should be good enough to step in when Legursky or Colon (or whoever) gets hurt and the Steelers need a warm, satisficing body to plug in for a few plays or a few games (or whatever).

The Baron Batch pick makes sense because it's the seventh round and why not take a shot.  He's had some injury issues, he's short, he wasn't invited to the Combine, and he wasn't the featured back in his offense, since Texas Tech preferred to have a rotation.  For someone that was damn close to being Mr. Irrelevant, I think it's a great pick.  He catches the ball well, he has experience in pass protection, and he's not used to being "the guy" so he's an excellent substitute for Mewelde Moore.  Moore has kind of worn out his welcome and I don't think he's as effective as he once was.  Batch should be able to run the draw and catch checkdown passes about 20% better than Moore, which makes this an upgrade.  No false expectations, no ego to bruise, good for what the Steelers need.  I can't say that Batch was my favorite pick, but they could've done a lot worse in Round 7.

Overall, they filled the needs they needed to fill, drafted to make the defensive line younger, helped the offensive line and cornerback depth, potentially picked up the next Harrison/Lloyd/Brown/etc, as well as potentially the next Verron Haynes (I still miss him).

I would have preferred that they took Sherrod in the first round and taken a big receiver.  I would have liked for them to have taken a replacement for Casey Hampton in case Big Snack retires.  But, I actually wouldn't sacrifice any of the players they took for players I wish they had potentially taken.

Grade: A-