(Editor's Note: When I got home from work, I was bound and determined to write a positive post about the Pirates and I'm gonna do it. Even though they're currently losing to the Rockies by 4 after 1 inning.)
I've been doing everything I normally do throughout the course of a Pirates season: Going to games, watching a few here and there on TV, keeping track of stats and trends to see if they're playing over their heads, under their heads, or about where they should be. This season, I did all these things wincing, with one eye closed. That's because I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, for them to blow it all by collapsing.
Well, they're 114 games in, they have the best record in baseball, and they already have 70 wins. They could go 12-36 for the remainder of the season and still finish above .500. If they continue at their current pace, then close out the season 9-23 like they did last season when they were in full Collapse Mode, they'll still win 89 games.
I've stopped wincing and I have both eyes open. That actually happened a while ago, but I assumed that the reason they hadn't started their collapse yet was because I was keeping my big mouth shut.
OK... at this point I am going to guarantee that the Pirates win 82 games this year. There, I said it.
Here's the thing: This team isn't thinking about 82 wins, they're thinking playoffs. They're trying to win the division and will settle for the Wild Card. Sure, there was a lot of lip service paid to this idea -- most notably by Clint Hurdle -- but now I get the sense that they actually believe it. I think this is a team that's confident and expects to win. That's a huge change between now and the past 20 years or so.
They're playing better defense. Russell Martin alone has thrown out more base stealers already this season than Rod Barajas and Mike McKenry combined did all of last season (27-19). Pedro Alvarez has shown more range and his glove work has improved dramatically; he just needs to work out the kinks on his throw to first. Starling Marte has settled in at left field, Cutch is playing his usual stellar defense in center, and Neil Walker isn't letting his struggles at the plate affect his fielding.
The bullpen isn't as over-worked as they were last season. Provided he comes back healthy, Jason Grilli will be well-rested for the posteason and they'll have a great back-up closer and eighth inning set-up man in Mark Melacon. There really isn't a weak link and, even though the Pirates are 22nd in Quality Starts, you get the feeling that the bullpen is being used correctly, not that Hurdle is going to the well too early too often.
The starting pitching has been very efficient and AJ Burnett hasn't had to carry the staff. James McDonald wasted no time imploding and they've been able to get along very well without him. Guys like Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, Brandon Cumpton, and Jeanmar Gomez have filled in admirably and I can see one of them becoming a long reliever when the roster expands in September.
(Well, crap. The Rockies are now winning 7-1 in the bottom of the second. I'm still going through with this.)
On offense... well, the offense has been pretty dreadful. They're 21st in runs, 22nd in batting average, 19th in on-base percentage, and 20th in slugging percentage. Those numbers have actually improved in the last month or so. However, the big issue last season was that they were hot and cold and relied too much on timely hitting. Their numbers have stabilized this season and even Pedro has been more consistent. With runners in scoring position, Cutch and Walker have taken a big step down and everyone else has had to pick up the slack. That means that they don't have that one guy you need to be afraid of, but it also means that someone different can (and has) step up every night.
They still have a major hole in right field, where they're dead last in OPS at that position. Travis Snider probably did us all a favor when his .219 average and .609 OPS went on the DL, but Jose Tabata and Alex Presley haven't been much better. Presley has one freakin' walk in 66 plate appearances and the two have combined for only 18 extra base hits. After they stood pat at the trade deadline and with Alex Rios getting traded from the White Sox to the Rangers, it looks like there aren't any options on the open market. I think they'll need to give the Tabata/Presley platoon a couple more weeks, then call in Andrew Lambo. They have nowhere to go but up, OPS-wise.
Right field OPS will either stay at its current horrid state or improve. If Neil Walker can get back up in the .280 or .290 range, that would be a huge boost. Cutch is really starting to catch fire and Pedro's due for another hot streak. They've already overcome some pretty significant injuries to their starting pitching and bullpen and might be able to overcome more (though I really hope no one else gets hurt, please). Their prospects -- either guys they drafted or guys they traded for -- have paid off and they're finally starting to hit on bargain free agents and low risk trades (Martin and Francisco Liriano this year, AJ Burnett last season).
I think that success is sustainable for the next 48 games and I think it's sustainable beyond this season. They've quietly "crept up" to 19th in payroll and they're spending almost four times what the 30th-ranked team (Astros) is spending.
These aren't your father's Pirates. Well, maybe your father's Pirates won the World Series, I'm not sure how old you are. I mean, my father's Pirates won the World Series. They're not your older sibling's Pirates when you were a "change of life" baby.
They're your Pittsburgh Pirates and it's time to catch Bucco Fever.
(FOR THE LOVE OF- now it's 10-1.)
Showing posts with label clint hurdle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label clint hurdle. Show all posts
Friday, August 09, 2013
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Buccos Update: Memories of the Implosion
On February 11th, 2001, the City of Pittsburgh imploded Three Rivers Stadium. Here's a video of what that looked like.
I'm not gonna lie, it was pretty awesome. I watched that old, concrete shitheap crumble to pieces from high atop Mount Washington and cheered like crazy. On the way home, I remember thinking that, with a new stadium and a young team that they could build around recently-signed Jason Kendall, the Pirates might not suck forever.
I was young, I have difficulty thinking logically when it comes to the Pirates, and my brain was pretty well frozen after waiting a couple hours in sub-freezing weather for the detonators to fire. That's also part of the Pirate Mystique, that they can give us hope when logic is trying desperately to pimp slap us back into reality. Baseball fans, in general, are optimistic by nature. Maybe it's the fact that every new season starts in the spring, which makes us think about rebirth and new life. Maybe it's the fact that the season is so long that anything can happen. Maybe it's the fact that we're all suckers. That's probably it, because I'm fully intending on wearing a Pirates shirt to work tomorrow. I actually started this post two weeks ago, because I knew that the implosion was coming, but I waited until they officially clinched their 20th consecutive losing season to finish posting it, because I still believed that they'd somehow come through in spite of all the evidence to the contrary.
So, I'm going to pile on and hit everyone with some cold, hard logic and reality. I think it will be good for all of us, especially me.
Andrew McCutchen isn't going to have another season like this one, though he may come close. They wasted a perfectly good season from Cutch in the midst of finding different and interesting ways to lose and disappoint us. I understand that Cutch's average has dropped about 50 points since July and that his home run stroke has essentially disappeared, but I don't see him doing much better than .330/.400/.560/.960 for the rest of his career. They took his season and they crapped all over it.
AJ Burnett isn't going to have another season like this one. Joel Hanrahan -- today's collapse notwithstanding -- and Jason Grilli, his second half issues notwithstanding, are not going to have another season like this one.
Starling Marte and Alex Presley and Brock Holt and Jody Mercer are the future. But, they're flawed like the rest of the roster: They don't walk enough and they strike out too much, even Cutch. Pedro Alvarez is basically Joaquin Phoenix's character from Signs. Garrett Jones had a fine season, but he's also 31.
There are a number of promising pitching prospects, led by Gerrit Cole, but who's to say they won't fade in August and September like James McDonald? The line-up can't help but improve without Rod Barajas and Clint Barmes dragging down the bottom of the order, but who's to say that they'll find two guys that are better for next season? As it turns out, Ryan Ludwick and Adam LaRoche aren't bad players, they were just playing for a bad team.
That brings us to the recent statement from the Pirates that announced they will be retaining key members of the front office, like Neal Huntington, Kyle Stark, and Greg Smith, as well as manager Clint Hurdle. An implosion of this magnitude would tend to dictate that heads should roll. But, if I'm Bob Nutting, I have to ask myself a very important question. Who's out there -- that would take the job, which is a very important question -- that's better? I've always been of the opinion that you shouldn't fire a guy unless you have a better option in mind and that better option should bloody well be willing to take the job.
They could try to improve themselves with free agent additions -- even if Barmes, Barajas, LaRoche, Ludwick, and Derrick Lee show that those acquisitions don't usually work out -- but, as Slate pointed out in 2010, spending money only buys you so much. It doesn't buy enough wins to make it worth it just for the sake of spending money.
The other option is to go the route of the Indians, Rays, and A's and build from the farm system. But, the system is toxic and develops players that don't walk enough and strike out too much, with the possible exception of Neil Walker. They could blow up the entire system on down to the receptionist that answers the phone for the single A affiliate West Virginia Power and replace them all with people say, "Thank you for calling the Pirates, what's your on-base percentage?" But, that would require time and effort and they're entirely too busy cashing checks.
Everything stacks up to years of disappointment for fans and years of profitability for the Nuttings. I'm still going to 6-10 games next season because I'm an idiot. I enjoy watching Major League Baseball live and the city I live in doesn't offer any other options. I love baseball and I can't let the Pirates go. I wish I could teach them a lesson by boycotting them, but I can't.
The best, most realistic option is to give them my money, but not my heart. I guess that'll have to do.
I'm not gonna lie, it was pretty awesome. I watched that old, concrete shitheap crumble to pieces from high atop Mount Washington and cheered like crazy. On the way home, I remember thinking that, with a new stadium and a young team that they could build around recently-signed Jason Kendall, the Pirates might not suck forever.
I was young, I have difficulty thinking logically when it comes to the Pirates, and my brain was pretty well frozen after waiting a couple hours in sub-freezing weather for the detonators to fire. That's also part of the Pirate Mystique, that they can give us hope when logic is trying desperately to pimp slap us back into reality. Baseball fans, in general, are optimistic by nature. Maybe it's the fact that every new season starts in the spring, which makes us think about rebirth and new life. Maybe it's the fact that the season is so long that anything can happen. Maybe it's the fact that we're all suckers. That's probably it, because I'm fully intending on wearing a Pirates shirt to work tomorrow. I actually started this post two weeks ago, because I knew that the implosion was coming, but I waited until they officially clinched their 20th consecutive losing season to finish posting it, because I still believed that they'd somehow come through in spite of all the evidence to the contrary.
So, I'm going to pile on and hit everyone with some cold, hard logic and reality. I think it will be good for all of us, especially me.
Andrew McCutchen isn't going to have another season like this one, though he may come close. They wasted a perfectly good season from Cutch in the midst of finding different and interesting ways to lose and disappoint us. I understand that Cutch's average has dropped about 50 points since July and that his home run stroke has essentially disappeared, but I don't see him doing much better than .330/.400/.560/.960 for the rest of his career. They took his season and they crapped all over it.
AJ Burnett isn't going to have another season like this one. Joel Hanrahan -- today's collapse notwithstanding -- and Jason Grilli, his second half issues notwithstanding, are not going to have another season like this one.
Starling Marte and Alex Presley and Brock Holt and Jody Mercer are the future. But, they're flawed like the rest of the roster: They don't walk enough and they strike out too much, even Cutch. Pedro Alvarez is basically Joaquin Phoenix's character from Signs. Garrett Jones had a fine season, but he's also 31.
There are a number of promising pitching prospects, led by Gerrit Cole, but who's to say they won't fade in August and September like James McDonald? The line-up can't help but improve without Rod Barajas and Clint Barmes dragging down the bottom of the order, but who's to say that they'll find two guys that are better for next season? As it turns out, Ryan Ludwick and Adam LaRoche aren't bad players, they were just playing for a bad team.
That brings us to the recent statement from the Pirates that announced they will be retaining key members of the front office, like Neal Huntington, Kyle Stark, and Greg Smith, as well as manager Clint Hurdle. An implosion of this magnitude would tend to dictate that heads should roll. But, if I'm Bob Nutting, I have to ask myself a very important question. Who's out there -- that would take the job, which is a very important question -- that's better? I've always been of the opinion that you shouldn't fire a guy unless you have a better option in mind and that better option should bloody well be willing to take the job.
They could try to improve themselves with free agent additions -- even if Barmes, Barajas, LaRoche, Ludwick, and Derrick Lee show that those acquisitions don't usually work out -- but, as Slate pointed out in 2010, spending money only buys you so much. It doesn't buy enough wins to make it worth it just for the sake of spending money.
The other option is to go the route of the Indians, Rays, and A's and build from the farm system. But, the system is toxic and develops players that don't walk enough and strike out too much, with the possible exception of Neil Walker. They could blow up the entire system on down to the receptionist that answers the phone for the single A affiliate West Virginia Power and replace them all with people say, "Thank you for calling the Pirates, what's your on-base percentage?" But, that would require time and effort and they're entirely too busy cashing checks.
Everything stacks up to years of disappointment for fans and years of profitability for the Nuttings. I'm still going to 6-10 games next season because I'm an idiot. I enjoy watching Major League Baseball live and the city I live in doesn't offer any other options. I love baseball and I can't let the Pirates go. I wish I could teach them a lesson by boycotting them, but I can't.
The best, most realistic option is to give them my money, but not my heart. I guess that'll have to do.
Thursday, August 16, 2012
Buccos Update: Might Be Time to Panic
My friend Dan is an aspiring Pirates fan, but he doesn't know a lot about baseball. He never followed it while he was growing up and the Pirates haven't given any reason to learn the game since he moved to Pittsburgh. The last two seasons, I've been teaching him different things about baseball in general and about the Buccos specifically.
Every day this month, he's asked me the same question: Is it time to panic yet? I keep answering that, no, it's not time to panic, because it's a long season and we still have a lot of baseball yet to play. After the Pirates fell to the Dodgers 11-0 on Tuesday night, he texted me and asked if it was time to panic. I said yes. I would still feel a sense of panic even if the Buccos had won last night and the fact that they didn't isn't helping my sense of panic.
I hate to say that any game is a must-win with so much baseball left to play (45 games remaining), but I have to say that I think today's game is a must-win situation. Winning today won't turn the season around necessarily -- Cutch and James McDonald are still slumping, everyone in the lineup still strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough, the bullpen has been shaky, they're not hitting for power like they were in June and July -- but it will help them remember what it's like to win.
Coming into the current home stand, they knew they were going to face a higher level of competition than they did coming out of the All-Star, but they still had 11 games at home and they had been playing exceptionally well at PNC Park. They're 3-7 through the first ten games and, really, the only bright spot was that nine run outburst in the bottom of the fourth on Sunday (I was there for that and it was awesome). They've played 13 straight games and have seven more in a row staring them in the face.
This is a team that's used to losing. Clint Hurdle has done a good job of creating the skeleton of a winning mindset and veteran AJ Burnett has bailed this team out of a slide on a number of occasions already this season. But, the skeleton Hurdle has constructed is still pretty young and fragile and Burnett's only one guy. The Dodgers are awfully good and they've looked very formidable thus far in this series.
It's a big obstacle to overcome and I don't know if this team is up to the challenge. A win today won't save the season, but I really believe that a loss will make an already panicked fan base seriously start to lose interest (it's almost football season, after all).
They need to remember what it's like to win. They need something to make them feel good about the upcoming road series against the Cardinals and Padres (who really should've swept the Buccos last weekend). They need something to keep them from collapsing like they did last season.
But... I don't think they have it in them. And that makes me nervous. Panicked, even.
Every day this month, he's asked me the same question: Is it time to panic yet? I keep answering that, no, it's not time to panic, because it's a long season and we still have a lot of baseball yet to play. After the Pirates fell to the Dodgers 11-0 on Tuesday night, he texted me and asked if it was time to panic. I said yes. I would still feel a sense of panic even if the Buccos had won last night and the fact that they didn't isn't helping my sense of panic.
I hate to say that any game is a must-win with so much baseball left to play (45 games remaining), but I have to say that I think today's game is a must-win situation. Winning today won't turn the season around necessarily -- Cutch and James McDonald are still slumping, everyone in the lineup still strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough, the bullpen has been shaky, they're not hitting for power like they were in June and July -- but it will help them remember what it's like to win.
Coming into the current home stand, they knew they were going to face a higher level of competition than they did coming out of the All-Star, but they still had 11 games at home and they had been playing exceptionally well at PNC Park. They're 3-7 through the first ten games and, really, the only bright spot was that nine run outburst in the bottom of the fourth on Sunday (I was there for that and it was awesome). They've played 13 straight games and have seven more in a row staring them in the face.
This is a team that's used to losing. Clint Hurdle has done a good job of creating the skeleton of a winning mindset and veteran AJ Burnett has bailed this team out of a slide on a number of occasions already this season. But, the skeleton Hurdle has constructed is still pretty young and fragile and Burnett's only one guy. The Dodgers are awfully good and they've looked very formidable thus far in this series.
It's a big obstacle to overcome and I don't know if this team is up to the challenge. A win today won't save the season, but I really believe that a loss will make an already panicked fan base seriously start to lose interest (it's almost football season, after all).
They need to remember what it's like to win. They need something to make them feel good about the upcoming road series against the Cardinals and Padres (who really should've swept the Buccos last weekend). They need something to keep them from collapsing like they did last season.
But... I don't think they have it in them. And that makes me nervous. Panicked, even.
Monday, July 02, 2012
Buccos Update
OK. After 19 seasons of heartbreak, I still haven't learned to temper my optimism. I realize the Pirates are only a ten game losing streak from finding their way back to irrelevance. But, it's July. The Buccos are still relevant. Not only are they relevant, they're thriving. They just scored 11 runs. Sure, it was against the Astros, but they also dropped 14 runs on the Cardinals and 11 runs on the Phillies in the last week. It's only July, but they're seven games over .500 and only a half game out of first place.
Now, I also had issues tempering my optimism last July. We all know what happened in July last season, but people forget that they were actually six games over .500 on July 21st. The fact that they were still relevant so close to Steeler training camp was big news, but they ultimately fell apart after that point, losing 17 of their next 20 and ending up with 90 losses.
This season, they have many of the same issues. They don't walk enough. They're 27th in runs scored, 26th in batting average, 30th in on-base percentage, and 21st in slugging. They're not hitting well on the season, but they're pitching extremely well. Same as last season. That would lead one to believe that they're overachieving just like they did last season and they'll soon come down to Earth.
I don't know who this "one" person is, but they're wrong, whoever they are. It's true that, for the season, their offensive statistics are horrible. But, they averaged more runs per game in June than any other team in the NL. They scored 53 runs in their last six games, which is more runs than they scored in the entire month of April. Clint Barmes is now hitting over .200, Drew Sutton appears to at least be serviceable, and Casey McGehee has proven to be valuable enough. Pedro Alvarez has a knack for hitting home runs, Garrett Jones knows that he'll be re-assigned if he plays too poorly, and Andrew McCutchen is having one of the greatest offensive seasons of any Pirate ever (putting him in Honus-Bonds-Waner-Clemente-Stargell-Parker territory).
It's unrealistic to think that they can keep up their June pace for the balance of the season, but it's also unrealistic to think that they'll regress to their April/early May performance. If Walker, Alvarez, Jones, and Barmes can get their numbers back to their historical averages, then they should have enough offense to carry the team. At some point, since McCutchen doesn't have any protection -- he's the only guy on the team that is a real threat -- one would assume that pitchers would just pitch around him or intentionally walk him to get to the sucky parts of the line-up. But, one would be wrong yet again, since McCutchen has such quick wrists and generates so much bat speed with a compact swing that he doesn't necessarily need a pitch to hit to get a hit. It's true that he has a .407 OBP, but I think that also means that he's picking his spots. If the bats behind him keep improving, then he's less likely to draw a free pass even when first base isn't open.
Ultimately, they need another bat. Well, they could probably use two or three bats, but the basic issue is that, while their farm system isn't barren, they don't have a healthy stockade of guys with potential that they can move for guys that can play right now. Also, there aren't a lot of bats on the market and Kevin Youkilis isn't walking through that door.
Since there aren't a lot of available hitters and since the guys currently on the roster could suffice, the other option would be to trade for a big name pitcher. That would be a bold move, but would also put the team in a fantastic position, especially if the hitters currently on the roster continue to be productive. Bringing in a guy like Cole Hamels or Zach Greinke would mean three solid starters in the rotation when you consider James McDonald and AJ Burnett. That would make Bedard a very respectable fourth starter and mean that they wouldn't need to hinge too much on Correia or Karstens, as well as being able to keep Brad Lincoln has their secret weapon/long reliever/spot starter. Additionally, in a three game playoff series, they'd have an advantage in that...
OK, I am getting ahead of myself again. They've been lucky with regard to injuries (Pedro missed some time and Charlie Morton had Tommy John surgery, but that's about it), so that will need to continue. They don't have another murderous stretch after the break like they did last season. Actually, they have 13 games left against Houston, ten games against the Cubs, three games against the Rockies, six games against the Padres, three games against the Marlins, and 12 games against the Brewers, six of which are at home. That means 47 of their next 83 games are against sub-.500 teams. They need to win the winnable games and take as many games against quality teams and division rivals as possible.
The fact remains that 86-88 wins (maximum of 90) will win the NL Central. If they can split with the Cardinals (six games remaining) and win more than they lose against the Reds (nine games remaining), then they have an excellent shot at finishing 82-80, if not possibly winning the division.
Now, I wouldn't give them a chance in the playoffs, but it's interesting to even discuss that possibility.
Now, I also had issues tempering my optimism last July. We all know what happened in July last season, but people forget that they were actually six games over .500 on July 21st. The fact that they were still relevant so close to Steeler training camp was big news, but they ultimately fell apart after that point, losing 17 of their next 20 and ending up with 90 losses.
This season, they have many of the same issues. They don't walk enough. They're 27th in runs scored, 26th in batting average, 30th in on-base percentage, and 21st in slugging. They're not hitting well on the season, but they're pitching extremely well. Same as last season. That would lead one to believe that they're overachieving just like they did last season and they'll soon come down to Earth.
I don't know who this "one" person is, but they're wrong, whoever they are. It's true that, for the season, their offensive statistics are horrible. But, they averaged more runs per game in June than any other team in the NL. They scored 53 runs in their last six games, which is more runs than they scored in the entire month of April. Clint Barmes is now hitting over .200, Drew Sutton appears to at least be serviceable, and Casey McGehee has proven to be valuable enough. Pedro Alvarez has a knack for hitting home runs, Garrett Jones knows that he'll be re-assigned if he plays too poorly, and Andrew McCutchen is having one of the greatest offensive seasons of any Pirate ever (putting him in Honus-Bonds-Waner-Clemente-Stargell-Parker territory).
It's unrealistic to think that they can keep up their June pace for the balance of the season, but it's also unrealistic to think that they'll regress to their April/early May performance. If Walker, Alvarez, Jones, and Barmes can get their numbers back to their historical averages, then they should have enough offense to carry the team. At some point, since McCutchen doesn't have any protection -- he's the only guy on the team that is a real threat -- one would assume that pitchers would just pitch around him or intentionally walk him to get to the sucky parts of the line-up. But, one would be wrong yet again, since McCutchen has such quick wrists and generates so much bat speed with a compact swing that he doesn't necessarily need a pitch to hit to get a hit. It's true that he has a .407 OBP, but I think that also means that he's picking his spots. If the bats behind him keep improving, then he's less likely to draw a free pass even when first base isn't open.
Ultimately, they need another bat. Well, they could probably use two or three bats, but the basic issue is that, while their farm system isn't barren, they don't have a healthy stockade of guys with potential that they can move for guys that can play right now. Also, there aren't a lot of bats on the market and Kevin Youkilis isn't walking through that door.
Since there aren't a lot of available hitters and since the guys currently on the roster could suffice, the other option would be to trade for a big name pitcher. That would be a bold move, but would also put the team in a fantastic position, especially if the hitters currently on the roster continue to be productive. Bringing in a guy like Cole Hamels or Zach Greinke would mean three solid starters in the rotation when you consider James McDonald and AJ Burnett. That would make Bedard a very respectable fourth starter and mean that they wouldn't need to hinge too much on Correia or Karstens, as well as being able to keep Brad Lincoln has their secret weapon/long reliever/spot starter. Additionally, in a three game playoff series, they'd have an advantage in that...
OK, I am getting ahead of myself again. They've been lucky with regard to injuries (Pedro missed some time and Charlie Morton had Tommy John surgery, but that's about it), so that will need to continue. They don't have another murderous stretch after the break like they did last season. Actually, they have 13 games left against Houston, ten games against the Cubs, three games against the Rockies, six games against the Padres, three games against the Marlins, and 12 games against the Brewers, six of which are at home. That means 47 of their next 83 games are against sub-.500 teams. They need to win the winnable games and take as many games against quality teams and division rivals as possible.
The fact remains that 86-88 wins (maximum of 90) will win the NL Central. If they can split with the Cardinals (six games remaining) and win more than they lose against the Reds (nine games remaining), then they have an excellent shot at finishing 82-80, if not possibly winning the division.
Now, I wouldn't give them a chance in the playoffs, but it's interesting to even discuss that possibility.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Five Random Thoughts
Here are five items that weren't long enough to be a full post...
- I think the Terrell Pryor suspension is bogus and it's not just because he's from here. I understand if the NCAA wants to do something to him or if Ohio State wants to negate his college credits that he accrued while attending the university. I don't understand why the NFL has any jurisdiction. Pryor is an adult now and he has moved on from whatever happened in college. If any employer judged me on what I did in college right after I graduated, I would not have gotten my first job. Or, maybe, I would've gotten the job, it's just that I would be suspended for about a year.
- Thinking about the Pryor thing, it seems to me that we've just witnessed a very corrupt era in college football that dates back at least to Reggie Bush. Everyone has been punished. There has, essentially, been another SMU Death Penalty handed out. Hopefully, that will keep everything clean for a little while. It seems like, for the past decade or so, if you ain't cheatin' you ain't playin'. That's bad for the NCAA, so I think they will take swift and extreme measures to fix the problem (and they already have in a lot of ways).
- From the Captain Obvious Desk, ESPN posted an article today suggesting that the Indianapolis Colts waited too long to think about life without Peyton Manning. Manning makes that whole team go. For years -- basically since they started deluding themselves into believing that Jim Sorgi was a suitable back-up -- they have been one torn ACL or other severe injury away from destroying the team's season. The time to address this issue wasn't six months ago, it was several years ago. They needed to have a Charlie Batch on the roster since about 2007 and they didn't get it done. Now, they face the consequences.
- I think the new kickoff rule favors the Steelers significantly. Not only does it even field position since they haven't had a solid kick returner in several years, but it makes it so that teams will need to drive 80 yards on the Steeler defense in order to score. That's huge, since one of the things that wore the defense out/led to more points being scored last season, was the fact that the coverage team was not great and usually set up the opposing team at about the 35 or 40 yard line. If Steeler kickers can register touchbacks, that sets the defense up for success. As an aside, Peter King Tweeted last week that 79.5 percent of kickoffs were returned in 2010 and that, if that number fell to 60 percent, it wouldn't be a big deal. That's kind of shocking, since that's taking away 20 percent of all kickoff returns. Remember, there's one at the beginning of each half and one after each score. Let's say, on average, there are eight kickoffs a game. With 16 teams playing 16 games a week, that's 256 games and 2048 kickoffs a year. Take 20 percent off that and you're taking away about 410 kickoffs a year. I would say that's a big deal.
- I think that Clint Hurdle has done a great job as a manager this year. Let me say that right off the bat. I think the team is languishing about 15-20 games under .500 at this point in the season without his energy and motivation. Having said that, he's either reading a book called "Managing a Baseball Team for Dummies" or he's playing it safe. Since he seems like a sharp dude, the smart money is on the second one. But, he always goes for lefty-lefty match-ups when making pitching decisions, always stacks the line-up with right handed batters when a lefty is pitching, and always bunts when there are runners on first and second with less than two outs. All these decisions are made regardless of the situation. They're all smart decisions percentage-wise, but decisions can't be made in a vacuum. I've seen him bring in Joe Beimel when the starter was still going strong. I've seen him call for a bunt with Andrew McCutchen -- the team's best hitter -- at the plate with two men on and less than two outs. He did the same thing with Alex Presley when Presley had an OPS over 1.000. The thing Hurdle needs to realize is that he's playing with house money. He kept the Pirates relevant well into July and, in the eyes of the fans, can do no wrong. He can't win the division or the wild card at this point, so he needs to focus on building the confidence of the players. If he's confident in them, they'll be confident in themselves. Let a pitcher work his way out of a jam. Leave a hot hitter in the line-up even if he bats on the left side and the pitcher you're facing happens to be left handed. Let Cutch and Presley hit. Let your starter work his way out of a jam. If you lose, you lose the game. Losing games is not a new thing for the Pirates; confident players are a new thing. Hurdle is playing it too safe and should let his guys win or lose the game based on their efforts, not what the book says.
Tuesday, August 09, 2011
The Other Shoe
We've all been waiting for the other shoe to drop for the Pirates. We were waiting in late May when stats started popping up about how they hadn't been over .500 this late in the season since George W. Bush's first term. We were waiting in late June when it seemed impossible that they could win another close game with clutch bullpen help and timely hitting. We were waiting for them to collapse right before the All-Star break. We were waiting for them to collapse right after the All-Star break.
Then came that crucial 13 game string against strong competition. We were sure that they would fall apart then. They were actually far enough above .500 that a rough streak against good teams wouldn't hurt them too much in the standings. Then the 19th inning debacle against the Braves. Then the Phillies swept the Buccos at Philly. But, that could actually be excused. It wasn't so much that Philadelphia excused the Pirates as a shoddy club. It was that the Philadelphia Phillies announced, emphatically, that they are a really, really good team. So much so that ESPN.com took a look at other great NL teams of the last 30 years to see how the Phillies stack up.
As the saying goes, though, one sweep does not a ten game losing streak make. That's a saying, right? No? Well, it is now.
The Pirates got crushed in consecutive home series by the Cubs and Padres. The rotation had an extremely bad run, the bullpen imploded, the hitting was not-so-timely, and the offense is not built to score ten or more runs in any game. For anyone that thought Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick were going to save this line-up, I have some Bear Sterns stock I would like to sell you. Leave your PayPal information in the comments.
Bad news is that they didn't get Hunter Pence. A real team with genuine playoff aspirations and deep pockets got him. Good news is that they gave up a player to be named later and some cash for two old guys that are helping -- and will help -- the offense, if for no other reason than they make it easier for Clint Hurdle to set his line-up against lefties. Also, we were able to finally, mercifully, put the Lyle Overbay Experiment to sleep. It's kinda funny that he went to go live on a farm, in Indianapolis.
The thing is that it would be mean -- and inaccurate -- to characterize this team as just the "Same Old Pirates." This is a team that captured our imagination from late May through the beginning of Steeler training camp. They gave us something that Pirate fans have not felt in a very long time: Hope. Many casual fans have jumped off the bandwagon. That's fine. There will be plenty of room for them the same time next year.
This is a young deep with a fairly strong minor league system. Charlie Morton, James McDonald and possibly Paul Maholm and Jeff Karstens should only get better. Neil Walker, Chase D'Arnaud, Brandon Wood, Alex Pressley, and possibly even Andrew McCutchen will get better. There's always the hope that Brad Lincoln will pan out. I think that Gerrit Cole will contribute sooner, rather than later, in a Stephen-Strasburg-but-not-needing-Tommy-John-surgery kind of way.
The Buccos went from sucking, to not sucking, to overachieving, to just plain achieving in a little over half a season. To say that they've regressed to their former, sucking ways in just seven games is jumping the gun. They're not going to win the division. They're not going to win the wild card. But, dammit, they stayed relevant up through when camp opened in Latrobe, and that's significant.
I know that Hurdle thinks that 500 is just a number, but that's the most realistic number that this team has left. It's the number that the fans -- fair weather or not -- have been thinking about since Clinton left office. That's all they have and that's where they need to get. In a season full of ups and downs, breaking even would be a huge victory.
Then came that crucial 13 game string against strong competition. We were sure that they would fall apart then. They were actually far enough above .500 that a rough streak against good teams wouldn't hurt them too much in the standings. Then the 19th inning debacle against the Braves. Then the Phillies swept the Buccos at Philly. But, that could actually be excused. It wasn't so much that Philadelphia excused the Pirates as a shoddy club. It was that the Philadelphia Phillies announced, emphatically, that they are a really, really good team. So much so that ESPN.com took a look at other great NL teams of the last 30 years to see how the Phillies stack up.
As the saying goes, though, one sweep does not a ten game losing streak make. That's a saying, right? No? Well, it is now.
The Pirates got crushed in consecutive home series by the Cubs and Padres. The rotation had an extremely bad run, the bullpen imploded, the hitting was not-so-timely, and the offense is not built to score ten or more runs in any game. For anyone that thought Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick were going to save this line-up, I have some Bear Sterns stock I would like to sell you. Leave your PayPal information in the comments.
Bad news is that they didn't get Hunter Pence. A real team with genuine playoff aspirations and deep pockets got him. Good news is that they gave up a player to be named later and some cash for two old guys that are helping -- and will help -- the offense, if for no other reason than they make it easier for Clint Hurdle to set his line-up against lefties. Also, we were able to finally, mercifully, put the Lyle Overbay Experiment to sleep. It's kinda funny that he went to go live on a farm, in Indianapolis.
The thing is that it would be mean -- and inaccurate -- to characterize this team as just the "Same Old Pirates." This is a team that captured our imagination from late May through the beginning of Steeler training camp. They gave us something that Pirate fans have not felt in a very long time: Hope. Many casual fans have jumped off the bandwagon. That's fine. There will be plenty of room for them the same time next year.
This is a young deep with a fairly strong minor league system. Charlie Morton, James McDonald and possibly Paul Maholm and Jeff Karstens should only get better. Neil Walker, Chase D'Arnaud, Brandon Wood, Alex Pressley, and possibly even Andrew McCutchen will get better. There's always the hope that Brad Lincoln will pan out. I think that Gerrit Cole will contribute sooner, rather than later, in a Stephen-Strasburg-but-not-needing-Tommy-John-surgery kind of way.
The Buccos went from sucking, to not sucking, to overachieving, to just plain achieving in a little over half a season. To say that they've regressed to their former, sucking ways in just seven games is jumping the gun. They're not going to win the division. They're not going to win the wild card. But, dammit, they stayed relevant up through when camp opened in Latrobe, and that's significant.
I know that Hurdle thinks that 500 is just a number, but that's the most realistic number that this team has left. It's the number that the fans -- fair weather or not -- have been thinking about since Clinton left office. That's all they have and that's where they need to get. In a season full of ups and downs, breaking even would be a huge victory.
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