(Editor's Note: When I got home from work, I was bound and determined to write a positive post about the Pirates and I'm gonna do it. Even though they're currently losing to the Rockies by 4 after 1 inning.)
I've been doing everything I normally do throughout the course of a Pirates season: Going to games, watching a few here and there on TV, keeping track of stats and trends to see if they're playing over their heads, under their heads, or about where they should be. This season, I did all these things wincing, with one eye closed. That's because I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, for them to blow it all by collapsing.
Well, they're 114 games in, they have the best record in baseball, and they already have 70 wins. They could go 12-36 for the remainder of the season and still finish above .500. If they continue at their current pace, then close out the season 9-23 like they did last season when they were in full Collapse Mode, they'll still win 89 games.
I've stopped wincing and I have both eyes open. That actually happened a while ago, but I assumed that the reason they hadn't started their collapse yet was because I was keeping my big mouth shut.
OK... at this point I am going to guarantee that the Pirates win 82 games this year. There, I said it.
Here's the thing: This team isn't thinking about 82 wins, they're thinking playoffs. They're trying to win the division and will settle for the Wild Card. Sure, there was a lot of lip service paid to this idea -- most notably by Clint Hurdle -- but now I get the sense that they actually believe it. I think this is a team that's confident and expects to win. That's a huge change between now and the past 20 years or so.
They're playing better defense. Russell Martin alone has thrown out more base stealers already this season than Rod Barajas and Mike McKenry combined did all of last season (27-19). Pedro Alvarez has shown more range and his glove work has improved dramatically; he just needs to work out the kinks on his throw to first. Starling Marte has settled in at left field, Cutch is playing his usual stellar defense in center, and Neil Walker isn't letting his struggles at the plate affect his fielding.
The bullpen isn't as over-worked as they were last season. Provided he comes back healthy, Jason Grilli will be well-rested for the posteason and they'll have a great back-up closer and eighth inning set-up man in Mark Melacon. There really isn't a weak link and, even though the Pirates are 22nd in Quality Starts, you get the feeling that the bullpen is being used correctly, not that Hurdle is going to the well too early too often.
The starting pitching has been very efficient and AJ Burnett hasn't had to carry the staff. James McDonald wasted no time imploding and they've been able to get along very well without him. Guys like Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, Brandon Cumpton, and Jeanmar Gomez have filled in admirably and I can see one of them becoming a long reliever when the roster expands in September.
(Well, crap. The Rockies are now winning 7-1 in the bottom of the second. I'm still going through with this.)
On offense... well, the offense has been pretty dreadful. They're 21st in runs, 22nd in batting average, 19th in on-base percentage, and 20th in slugging percentage. Those numbers have actually improved in the last month or so. However, the big issue last season was that they were hot and cold and relied too much on timely hitting. Their numbers have stabilized this season and even Pedro has been more consistent. With runners in scoring position, Cutch and Walker have taken a big step down and everyone else has had to pick up the slack. That means that they don't have that one guy you need to be afraid of, but it also means that someone different can (and has) step up every night.
They still have a major hole in right field, where they're dead last in OPS at that position. Travis Snider probably did us all a favor when his .219 average and .609 OPS went on the DL, but Jose Tabata and Alex Presley haven't been much better. Presley has one freakin' walk in 66 plate appearances and the two have combined for only 18 extra base hits. After they stood pat at the trade deadline and with Alex Rios getting traded from the White Sox to the Rangers, it looks like there aren't any options on the open market. I think they'll need to give the Tabata/Presley platoon a couple more weeks, then call in Andrew Lambo. They have nowhere to go but up, OPS-wise.
Right field OPS will either stay at its current horrid state or improve. If Neil Walker can get back up in the .280 or .290 range, that would be a huge boost. Cutch is really starting to catch fire and Pedro's due for another hot streak. They've already overcome some pretty significant injuries to their starting pitching and bullpen and might be able to overcome more (though I really hope no one else gets hurt, please). Their prospects -- either guys they drafted or guys they traded for -- have paid off and they're finally starting to hit on bargain free agents and low risk trades (Martin and Francisco Liriano this year, AJ Burnett last season).
I think that success is sustainable for the next 48 games and I think it's sustainable beyond this season. They've quietly "crept up" to 19th in payroll and they're spending almost four times what the 30th-ranked team (Astros) is spending.
These aren't your father's Pirates. Well, maybe your father's Pirates won the World Series, I'm not sure how old you are. I mean, my father's Pirates won the World Series. They're not your older sibling's Pirates when you were a "change of life" baby.
They're your Pittsburgh Pirates and it's time to catch Bucco Fever.
(FOR THE LOVE OF- now it's 10-1.)
Showing posts with label are the pirates for real. Show all posts
Showing posts with label are the pirates for real. Show all posts
Friday, August 09, 2013
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Buccos After the Deadline
Well, the trade deadline has come and gone with very little fanfare and zero blockbuster trades from your Buccos. Some say that management wasn't behind this team and they're still building for the long term, some say that too many moves would've upset team chemistry, I say that I'm disappointed that, when it was clearly established that the Pirates were in a big time buying position in late July for the first time in 20 years, they didn't do more. They needed a significant upgrade to the line-up and they were not able to get it done. Hunter Pence was available for the second time in two years and they didn't get it done. There were a number of deals and a lot of noise, but ultimately the Pirates fell flat at the deadline. There are still moves that could be made by the end of August, but I have a feeling that any future moves will fall in line with what we saw the last few days.
It could be that no one wanted to make a deal with the Pirates if Gerrit Cole wasn't involved and they didn't want to mortgage their future that severely. I can respect that. But, it's possible that we'll never know whether management was just being responsible, or if they were just paralyzed by fear, indecision, and unfamiliarity with the situation they found themselves in.
Having said that, here's what I think about the moves that were actually made, as opposed to the moves I hoped they would make.
The only guy that I will miss is Brad Lincoln. As I mentioned previously, I thought he was their secret weapon -- an effective pitcher that could get lefties and righties out and could work either as a seventh inning set-up guy or a long reliever. I thought he brought a lot of skill a versatility to the bullpen, but whatever. I have difficulty giving up on guys that were drafted high and have a bunch of upside.
Speaking of upside, I like Travis Snider. A lot. What I've read on the Internet says that he has a long swing and he's had issues getting to balls in the strike zone. He's only 24 and such things can be fixed, mainly by compacting/shortening his swing and taking out wasted motion that takes away from bat speed. Andrew McCutcheon happens to have worked on this in the offseason. It's the batting coach's job to work with Snider on his swing, but I'm sure that Cutch will be able to offer some valuable guidance to Snider based on personal experience. Above all else, my friend Keith e-mailed me earlier today and said that Snider compares favorably to Brian Giles. Keith knows everything about baseball and I trust his judgement, so I have faith in Snider.
Gorkys Hernandez was having trouble adjusting to major league pitching and was being used primarily as a defensive substitute and pinch runner, which is a waste of a roster spot. I'm fine with his departure. Gaby Sanchez gives them a right-hander to platoon with Garrett Jones, which made Casey McGehee redundant. McGehee was then traded to the Yankees for Chad Qualls.
Qualls is a setup guy and would presumably be the replacement for Lincoln. He's struggled the last couple of seasons, but he could experience a renaissance away from the AL and their mean, nasty designated hitters, like AJ Burnett has. I mean, I don't think lightning will strike twice in that regard, but if he can improve like Burnett has... yeah, I still miss Brad Lincoln.
The bottom line is that this team still needs their starting pitching to continue to shine in order to stay competitive and win games. The Reds and Cardinals didn't significantly upgrade their rosters, either, which means that everyone is pretty much working with what they started with for the balance of the season.
If Cutch and James McDonald can keep from regressing (which they both did last season), Neil Walker can continue to stay around .300, the tandem of Jones/Sanchez is good for 30 home runs this season, Pedro Alvarez keeps hitting the ball hard (when he hits it), and there aren't any injuries or collapses in the starting rotation, this team can make a legitimate run at the division title or the Wild Card.
But... that's a lot of "ifs" that weren't addressed at the deadline.
It could be that no one wanted to make a deal with the Pirates if Gerrit Cole wasn't involved and they didn't want to mortgage their future that severely. I can respect that. But, it's possible that we'll never know whether management was just being responsible, or if they were just paralyzed by fear, indecision, and unfamiliarity with the situation they found themselves in.
Having said that, here's what I think about the moves that were actually made, as opposed to the moves I hoped they would make.
The only guy that I will miss is Brad Lincoln. As I mentioned previously, I thought he was their secret weapon -- an effective pitcher that could get lefties and righties out and could work either as a seventh inning set-up guy or a long reliever. I thought he brought a lot of skill a versatility to the bullpen, but whatever. I have difficulty giving up on guys that were drafted high and have a bunch of upside.
Speaking of upside, I like Travis Snider. A lot. What I've read on the Internet says that he has a long swing and he's had issues getting to balls in the strike zone. He's only 24 and such things can be fixed, mainly by compacting/shortening his swing and taking out wasted motion that takes away from bat speed. Andrew McCutcheon happens to have worked on this in the offseason. It's the batting coach's job to work with Snider on his swing, but I'm sure that Cutch will be able to offer some valuable guidance to Snider based on personal experience. Above all else, my friend Keith e-mailed me earlier today and said that Snider compares favorably to Brian Giles. Keith knows everything about baseball and I trust his judgement, so I have faith in Snider.
Gorkys Hernandez was having trouble adjusting to major league pitching and was being used primarily as a defensive substitute and pinch runner, which is a waste of a roster spot. I'm fine with his departure. Gaby Sanchez gives them a right-hander to platoon with Garrett Jones, which made Casey McGehee redundant. McGehee was then traded to the Yankees for Chad Qualls.
Qualls is a setup guy and would presumably be the replacement for Lincoln. He's struggled the last couple of seasons, but he could experience a renaissance away from the AL and their mean, nasty designated hitters, like AJ Burnett has. I mean, I don't think lightning will strike twice in that regard, but if he can improve like Burnett has... yeah, I still miss Brad Lincoln.
The bottom line is that this team still needs their starting pitching to continue to shine in order to stay competitive and win games. The Reds and Cardinals didn't significantly upgrade their rosters, either, which means that everyone is pretty much working with what they started with for the balance of the season.
If Cutch and James McDonald can keep from regressing (which they both did last season), Neil Walker can continue to stay around .300, the tandem of Jones/Sanchez is good for 30 home runs this season, Pedro Alvarez keeps hitting the ball hard (when he hits it), and there aren't any injuries or collapses in the starting rotation, this team can make a legitimate run at the division title or the Wild Card.
But... that's a lot of "ifs" that weren't addressed at the deadline.
Monday, July 02, 2012
Buccos Update
OK. After 19 seasons of heartbreak, I still haven't learned to temper my optimism. I realize the Pirates are only a ten game losing streak from finding their way back to irrelevance. But, it's July. The Buccos are still relevant. Not only are they relevant, they're thriving. They just scored 11 runs. Sure, it was against the Astros, but they also dropped 14 runs on the Cardinals and 11 runs on the Phillies in the last week. It's only July, but they're seven games over .500 and only a half game out of first place.
Now, I also had issues tempering my optimism last July. We all know what happened in July last season, but people forget that they were actually six games over .500 on July 21st. The fact that they were still relevant so close to Steeler training camp was big news, but they ultimately fell apart after that point, losing 17 of their next 20 and ending up with 90 losses.
This season, they have many of the same issues. They don't walk enough. They're 27th in runs scored, 26th in batting average, 30th in on-base percentage, and 21st in slugging. They're not hitting well on the season, but they're pitching extremely well. Same as last season. That would lead one to believe that they're overachieving just like they did last season and they'll soon come down to Earth.
I don't know who this "one" person is, but they're wrong, whoever they are. It's true that, for the season, their offensive statistics are horrible. But, they averaged more runs per game in June than any other team in the NL. They scored 53 runs in their last six games, which is more runs than they scored in the entire month of April. Clint Barmes is now hitting over .200, Drew Sutton appears to at least be serviceable, and Casey McGehee has proven to be valuable enough. Pedro Alvarez has a knack for hitting home runs, Garrett Jones knows that he'll be re-assigned if he plays too poorly, and Andrew McCutchen is having one of the greatest offensive seasons of any Pirate ever (putting him in Honus-Bonds-Waner-Clemente-Stargell-Parker territory).
It's unrealistic to think that they can keep up their June pace for the balance of the season, but it's also unrealistic to think that they'll regress to their April/early May performance. If Walker, Alvarez, Jones, and Barmes can get their numbers back to their historical averages, then they should have enough offense to carry the team. At some point, since McCutchen doesn't have any protection -- he's the only guy on the team that is a real threat -- one would assume that pitchers would just pitch around him or intentionally walk him to get to the sucky parts of the line-up. But, one would be wrong yet again, since McCutchen has such quick wrists and generates so much bat speed with a compact swing that he doesn't necessarily need a pitch to hit to get a hit. It's true that he has a .407 OBP, but I think that also means that he's picking his spots. If the bats behind him keep improving, then he's less likely to draw a free pass even when first base isn't open.
Ultimately, they need another bat. Well, they could probably use two or three bats, but the basic issue is that, while their farm system isn't barren, they don't have a healthy stockade of guys with potential that they can move for guys that can play right now. Also, there aren't a lot of bats on the market and Kevin Youkilis isn't walking through that door.
Since there aren't a lot of available hitters and since the guys currently on the roster could suffice, the other option would be to trade for a big name pitcher. That would be a bold move, but would also put the team in a fantastic position, especially if the hitters currently on the roster continue to be productive. Bringing in a guy like Cole Hamels or Zach Greinke would mean three solid starters in the rotation when you consider James McDonald and AJ Burnett. That would make Bedard a very respectable fourth starter and mean that they wouldn't need to hinge too much on Correia or Karstens, as well as being able to keep Brad Lincoln has their secret weapon/long reliever/spot starter. Additionally, in a three game playoff series, they'd have an advantage in that...
OK, I am getting ahead of myself again. They've been lucky with regard to injuries (Pedro missed some time and Charlie Morton had Tommy John surgery, but that's about it), so that will need to continue. They don't have another murderous stretch after the break like they did last season. Actually, they have 13 games left against Houston, ten games against the Cubs, three games against the Rockies, six games against the Padres, three games against the Marlins, and 12 games against the Brewers, six of which are at home. That means 47 of their next 83 games are against sub-.500 teams. They need to win the winnable games and take as many games against quality teams and division rivals as possible.
The fact remains that 86-88 wins (maximum of 90) will win the NL Central. If they can split with the Cardinals (six games remaining) and win more than they lose against the Reds (nine games remaining), then they have an excellent shot at finishing 82-80, if not possibly winning the division.
Now, I wouldn't give them a chance in the playoffs, but it's interesting to even discuss that possibility.
Now, I also had issues tempering my optimism last July. We all know what happened in July last season, but people forget that they were actually six games over .500 on July 21st. The fact that they were still relevant so close to Steeler training camp was big news, but they ultimately fell apart after that point, losing 17 of their next 20 and ending up with 90 losses.
This season, they have many of the same issues. They don't walk enough. They're 27th in runs scored, 26th in batting average, 30th in on-base percentage, and 21st in slugging. They're not hitting well on the season, but they're pitching extremely well. Same as last season. That would lead one to believe that they're overachieving just like they did last season and they'll soon come down to Earth.
I don't know who this "one" person is, but they're wrong, whoever they are. It's true that, for the season, their offensive statistics are horrible. But, they averaged more runs per game in June than any other team in the NL. They scored 53 runs in their last six games, which is more runs than they scored in the entire month of April. Clint Barmes is now hitting over .200, Drew Sutton appears to at least be serviceable, and Casey McGehee has proven to be valuable enough. Pedro Alvarez has a knack for hitting home runs, Garrett Jones knows that he'll be re-assigned if he plays too poorly, and Andrew McCutchen is having one of the greatest offensive seasons of any Pirate ever (putting him in Honus-Bonds-Waner-Clemente-Stargell-Parker territory).
It's unrealistic to think that they can keep up their June pace for the balance of the season, but it's also unrealistic to think that they'll regress to their April/early May performance. If Walker, Alvarez, Jones, and Barmes can get their numbers back to their historical averages, then they should have enough offense to carry the team. At some point, since McCutchen doesn't have any protection -- he's the only guy on the team that is a real threat -- one would assume that pitchers would just pitch around him or intentionally walk him to get to the sucky parts of the line-up. But, one would be wrong yet again, since McCutchen has such quick wrists and generates so much bat speed with a compact swing that he doesn't necessarily need a pitch to hit to get a hit. It's true that he has a .407 OBP, but I think that also means that he's picking his spots. If the bats behind him keep improving, then he's less likely to draw a free pass even when first base isn't open.
Ultimately, they need another bat. Well, they could probably use two or three bats, but the basic issue is that, while their farm system isn't barren, they don't have a healthy stockade of guys with potential that they can move for guys that can play right now. Also, there aren't a lot of bats on the market and Kevin Youkilis isn't walking through that door.
Since there aren't a lot of available hitters and since the guys currently on the roster could suffice, the other option would be to trade for a big name pitcher. That would be a bold move, but would also put the team in a fantastic position, especially if the hitters currently on the roster continue to be productive. Bringing in a guy like Cole Hamels or Zach Greinke would mean three solid starters in the rotation when you consider James McDonald and AJ Burnett. That would make Bedard a very respectable fourth starter and mean that they wouldn't need to hinge too much on Correia or Karstens, as well as being able to keep Brad Lincoln has their secret weapon/long reliever/spot starter. Additionally, in a three game playoff series, they'd have an advantage in that...
OK, I am getting ahead of myself again. They've been lucky with regard to injuries (Pedro missed some time and Charlie Morton had Tommy John surgery, but that's about it), so that will need to continue. They don't have another murderous stretch after the break like they did last season. Actually, they have 13 games left against Houston, ten games against the Cubs, three games against the Rockies, six games against the Padres, three games against the Marlins, and 12 games against the Brewers, six of which are at home. That means 47 of their next 83 games are against sub-.500 teams. They need to win the winnable games and take as many games against quality teams and division rivals as possible.
The fact remains that 86-88 wins (maximum of 90) will win the NL Central. If they can split with the Cardinals (six games remaining) and win more than they lose against the Reds (nine games remaining), then they have an excellent shot at finishing 82-80, if not possibly winning the division.
Now, I wouldn't give them a chance in the playoffs, but it's interesting to even discuss that possibility.
Tuesday, August 09, 2011
The Other Shoe
We've all been waiting for the other shoe to drop for the Pirates. We were waiting in late May when stats started popping up about how they hadn't been over .500 this late in the season since George W. Bush's first term. We were waiting in late June when it seemed impossible that they could win another close game with clutch bullpen help and timely hitting. We were waiting for them to collapse right before the All-Star break. We were waiting for them to collapse right after the All-Star break.
Then came that crucial 13 game string against strong competition. We were sure that they would fall apart then. They were actually far enough above .500 that a rough streak against good teams wouldn't hurt them too much in the standings. Then the 19th inning debacle against the Braves. Then the Phillies swept the Buccos at Philly. But, that could actually be excused. It wasn't so much that Philadelphia excused the Pirates as a shoddy club. It was that the Philadelphia Phillies announced, emphatically, that they are a really, really good team. So much so that ESPN.com took a look at other great NL teams of the last 30 years to see how the Phillies stack up.
As the saying goes, though, one sweep does not a ten game losing streak make. That's a saying, right? No? Well, it is now.
The Pirates got crushed in consecutive home series by the Cubs and Padres. The rotation had an extremely bad run, the bullpen imploded, the hitting was not-so-timely, and the offense is not built to score ten or more runs in any game. For anyone that thought Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick were going to save this line-up, I have some Bear Sterns stock I would like to sell you. Leave your PayPal information in the comments.
Bad news is that they didn't get Hunter Pence. A real team with genuine playoff aspirations and deep pockets got him. Good news is that they gave up a player to be named later and some cash for two old guys that are helping -- and will help -- the offense, if for no other reason than they make it easier for Clint Hurdle to set his line-up against lefties. Also, we were able to finally, mercifully, put the Lyle Overbay Experiment to sleep. It's kinda funny that he went to go live on a farm, in Indianapolis.
The thing is that it would be mean -- and inaccurate -- to characterize this team as just the "Same Old Pirates." This is a team that captured our imagination from late May through the beginning of Steeler training camp. They gave us something that Pirate fans have not felt in a very long time: Hope. Many casual fans have jumped off the bandwagon. That's fine. There will be plenty of room for them the same time next year.
This is a young deep with a fairly strong minor league system. Charlie Morton, James McDonald and possibly Paul Maholm and Jeff Karstens should only get better. Neil Walker, Chase D'Arnaud, Brandon Wood, Alex Pressley, and possibly even Andrew McCutchen will get better. There's always the hope that Brad Lincoln will pan out. I think that Gerrit Cole will contribute sooner, rather than later, in a Stephen-Strasburg-but-not-needing-Tommy-John-surgery kind of way.
The Buccos went from sucking, to not sucking, to overachieving, to just plain achieving in a little over half a season. To say that they've regressed to their former, sucking ways in just seven games is jumping the gun. They're not going to win the division. They're not going to win the wild card. But, dammit, they stayed relevant up through when camp opened in Latrobe, and that's significant.
I know that Hurdle thinks that 500 is just a number, but that's the most realistic number that this team has left. It's the number that the fans -- fair weather or not -- have been thinking about since Clinton left office. That's all they have and that's where they need to get. In a season full of ups and downs, breaking even would be a huge victory.
Then came that crucial 13 game string against strong competition. We were sure that they would fall apart then. They were actually far enough above .500 that a rough streak against good teams wouldn't hurt them too much in the standings. Then the 19th inning debacle against the Braves. Then the Phillies swept the Buccos at Philly. But, that could actually be excused. It wasn't so much that Philadelphia excused the Pirates as a shoddy club. It was that the Philadelphia Phillies announced, emphatically, that they are a really, really good team. So much so that ESPN.com took a look at other great NL teams of the last 30 years to see how the Phillies stack up.
As the saying goes, though, one sweep does not a ten game losing streak make. That's a saying, right? No? Well, it is now.
The Pirates got crushed in consecutive home series by the Cubs and Padres. The rotation had an extremely bad run, the bullpen imploded, the hitting was not-so-timely, and the offense is not built to score ten or more runs in any game. For anyone that thought Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick were going to save this line-up, I have some Bear Sterns stock I would like to sell you. Leave your PayPal information in the comments.
Bad news is that they didn't get Hunter Pence. A real team with genuine playoff aspirations and deep pockets got him. Good news is that they gave up a player to be named later and some cash for two old guys that are helping -- and will help -- the offense, if for no other reason than they make it easier for Clint Hurdle to set his line-up against lefties. Also, we were able to finally, mercifully, put the Lyle Overbay Experiment to sleep. It's kinda funny that he went to go live on a farm, in Indianapolis.
The thing is that it would be mean -- and inaccurate -- to characterize this team as just the "Same Old Pirates." This is a team that captured our imagination from late May through the beginning of Steeler training camp. They gave us something that Pirate fans have not felt in a very long time: Hope. Many casual fans have jumped off the bandwagon. That's fine. There will be plenty of room for them the same time next year.
This is a young deep with a fairly strong minor league system. Charlie Morton, James McDonald and possibly Paul Maholm and Jeff Karstens should only get better. Neil Walker, Chase D'Arnaud, Brandon Wood, Alex Pressley, and possibly even Andrew McCutchen will get better. There's always the hope that Brad Lincoln will pan out. I think that Gerrit Cole will contribute sooner, rather than later, in a Stephen-Strasburg-but-not-needing-Tommy-John-surgery kind of way.
The Buccos went from sucking, to not sucking, to overachieving, to just plain achieving in a little over half a season. To say that they've regressed to their former, sucking ways in just seven games is jumping the gun. They're not going to win the division. They're not going to win the wild card. But, dammit, they stayed relevant up through when camp opened in Latrobe, and that's significant.
I know that Hurdle thinks that 500 is just a number, but that's the most realistic number that this team has left. It's the number that the fans -- fair weather or not -- have been thinking about since Clinton left office. That's all they have and that's where they need to get. In a season full of ups and downs, breaking even would be a huge victory.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Buccos on the Brink
It's July 21st and the Pittsburgh Pirates are still relevant. If NFL players and owners weren't still arguing over a new CBA, Steeler training camp would be opening soon, which has generally signaled the end of the Pirates season.
The Buccos are currently six games over .500 and only half a game back of the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers. People are starting to pay attention to the Pittsburgh Pirates. People are starting to write articles about them. Not just schmucks like me, but actual people that work for actual big websites and get paid and everything. On Monday night, when the Pirates visit the Atlanta Braves, the game is going to be broadcast on ESPN. That will mark only the third time since the turn of the century that the Pirates have appeared on the World Wide Leader.
The only trouble is that they're also currently shin deep in a 13 game set that could turn into a pool of awesome or a quagmire of suck. These 13 games pit the Pirates against teams with a combined winning percentage of .558. They've gotten this far with solid pitching and defense, timely hitting, and beating up on the crappy teams in the NL Central, posting a 24-14 record against teams in their division. Take out their 0-5 record against the Brewers out of that and the Buccos are 24-9 against teams in the Central that aren't from Wisconsin.
They've already escaped the "easiest" part of this stretch with two wins against the Reds. That series was a microcosm of the season thus far. The Pirates won the first two games 2-0 and 1-0 on solid pitching, excellent work by their middle relievers, and timely hitting. They lost the third game 3-1 because the offense fizzled out and Jeff Karstens allowed two unearned runs. They trusted in the defense and the defense let them down.
Over the course of the next ten games, we'll get a chance to see if the Pirates can play with the big boys. After three games at home against the Cardinals, they hit the road with a four game set in Atlanta and three games at Philadelphia. The Phillies currently hold the best record in the majors, though the Pirates did take two out of three from them earlier this year at PNC Park. The Braves aren't far behind the Phillies in the NL East and would be leading the NL Central by five games if the divisions got realigned tomorrow.
To this point, all the experts that are paying attention have stated that the Pirates have either overachieved or gotten lucky thus far. They claim that they're not full-on believers yet and that defense, pitching, and timely hitting is not sustainable. They think that a collapse is probable, if not imminent. Colin Cowherd mentioned on his radio show last week that the current 13 game string-of-death was the make-or-break point of the season for the Buccos, with a firm declaration that they would end up on the "break" side of that scenario.
But, the fact remains that they're three games in and they're 2-1. If they can at least split these next ten games -- with a preference towards winning the three division games against St. Louis -- then the experts will have to admit that they're just achieving, not overachieving.
I think that they're straight-up achieving right now. We're 96 games into the season -- almost 60 percent of the way there -- and, though the lug nuts have been loose at times, the wheels don't seem to be coming off. After the make-or-break segment of the schedule, the Pirates have it fairly easy. They will face teams with a collective winning percentage of .484 in the second half, which is one of the easier schedules in the major leagues. That .484 percentage includes these 13 games against .558 teams, so the balance of the remaining games is below that mark.
This is not to say that the Pirates are a perfect team and will easily win the division. The rotation could unravel. The defense could implode. The offense, strange as it may sound, could actually get worse. Some guys are coming back from the disabled list, but that will only help so much. Getting Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata and Chris Snyder back will only add blush and eyeliner to the pig, it won't make it pretty. Ultimately, the Pirates need to trade for a bat before the trade deadline, but the make-or-break segment will end around 10 p.m. Eastern time on July 31st, which is past the 3 p.m. deadline for trades.
The other issue is that, right now, the Pirates are playing with house money. If they don't win the division -- and, given the fact that Atlanta is five games up in the wild card race, the Buccos will need to win the division to make it to the playoffs -- then they were never expected to win the division and isn't it nice that they played hard and got close after all these years? If they do nothing and somehow win the division, then Nutting and Huntington will look like geniuses for not sacrificing the future to win now.
It's a dicey situation, so it will be interesting to see how the next ten days play out.
The Buccos are currently six games over .500 and only half a game back of the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers. People are starting to pay attention to the Pittsburgh Pirates. People are starting to write articles about them. Not just schmucks like me, but actual people that work for actual big websites and get paid and everything. On Monday night, when the Pirates visit the Atlanta Braves, the game is going to be broadcast on ESPN. That will mark only the third time since the turn of the century that the Pirates have appeared on the World Wide Leader.
The only trouble is that they're also currently shin deep in a 13 game set that could turn into a pool of awesome or a quagmire of suck. These 13 games pit the Pirates against teams with a combined winning percentage of .558. They've gotten this far with solid pitching and defense, timely hitting, and beating up on the crappy teams in the NL Central, posting a 24-14 record against teams in their division. Take out their 0-5 record against the Brewers out of that and the Buccos are 24-9 against teams in the Central that aren't from Wisconsin.
They've already escaped the "easiest" part of this stretch with two wins against the Reds. That series was a microcosm of the season thus far. The Pirates won the first two games 2-0 and 1-0 on solid pitching, excellent work by their middle relievers, and timely hitting. They lost the third game 3-1 because the offense fizzled out and Jeff Karstens allowed two unearned runs. They trusted in the defense and the defense let them down.
Over the course of the next ten games, we'll get a chance to see if the Pirates can play with the big boys. After three games at home against the Cardinals, they hit the road with a four game set in Atlanta and three games at Philadelphia. The Phillies currently hold the best record in the majors, though the Pirates did take two out of three from them earlier this year at PNC Park. The Braves aren't far behind the Phillies in the NL East and would be leading the NL Central by five games if the divisions got realigned tomorrow.
To this point, all the experts that are paying attention have stated that the Pirates have either overachieved or gotten lucky thus far. They claim that they're not full-on believers yet and that defense, pitching, and timely hitting is not sustainable. They think that a collapse is probable, if not imminent. Colin Cowherd mentioned on his radio show last week that the current 13 game string-of-death was the make-or-break point of the season for the Buccos, with a firm declaration that they would end up on the "break" side of that scenario.
But, the fact remains that they're three games in and they're 2-1. If they can at least split these next ten games -- with a preference towards winning the three division games against St. Louis -- then the experts will have to admit that they're just achieving, not overachieving.
I think that they're straight-up achieving right now. We're 96 games into the season -- almost 60 percent of the way there -- and, though the lug nuts have been loose at times, the wheels don't seem to be coming off. After the make-or-break segment of the schedule, the Pirates have it fairly easy. They will face teams with a collective winning percentage of .484 in the second half, which is one of the easier schedules in the major leagues. That .484 percentage includes these 13 games against .558 teams, so the balance of the remaining games is below that mark.
This is not to say that the Pirates are a perfect team and will easily win the division. The rotation could unravel. The defense could implode. The offense, strange as it may sound, could actually get worse. Some guys are coming back from the disabled list, but that will only help so much. Getting Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata and Chris Snyder back will only add blush and eyeliner to the pig, it won't make it pretty. Ultimately, the Pirates need to trade for a bat before the trade deadline, but the make-or-break segment will end around 10 p.m. Eastern time on July 31st, which is past the 3 p.m. deadline for trades.
The other issue is that, right now, the Pirates are playing with house money. If they don't win the division -- and, given the fact that Atlanta is five games up in the wild card race, the Buccos will need to win the division to make it to the playoffs -- then they were never expected to win the division and isn't it nice that they played hard and got close after all these years? If they do nothing and somehow win the division, then Nutting and Huntington will look like geniuses for not sacrificing the future to win now.
It's a dicey situation, so it will be interesting to see how the next ten days play out.
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