Buccos Update

OK.  After 19 seasons of heartbreak, I still haven't learned to temper my optimism.  I realize the Pirates are only a ten game losing streak from finding their way back to irrelevance.  But, it's July.  The Buccos are still relevant.  Not only are they relevant, they're thriving.  They just scored 11 runs.  Sure, it was against the Astros, but they also dropped 14 runs on the Cardinals and 11 runs on the Phillies in the last week.  It's only July, but they're seven games over .500 and only a half game out of first place.

Now, I also had issues tempering my optimism last July.  We all know what happened in July last season, but people forget that they were actually six games over .500 on July 21st.  The fact that they were still relevant so close to Steeler training camp was big news, but they ultimately fell apart after that point, losing 17 of their next 20 and ending up with 90 losses.

This season, they have many of the same issues.  They don't walk enough.  They're 27th in runs scored, 26th in batting average, 30th in on-base percentage, and 21st in slugging.  They're not hitting well on the season, but they're pitching extremely well.  Same as last season.  That would lead one to believe that they're overachieving just like they did last season and they'll soon come down to Earth.

I don't know who this "one" person is, but they're wrong, whoever they are.  It's true that, for the season, their offensive statistics are horrible.  But, they averaged more runs per game in June than any other team in the NL.  They scored 53 runs in their last six games, which is more runs than they scored in the entire month of April.  Clint Barmes is now hitting over .200, Drew Sutton appears to at least be serviceable, and Casey McGehee has proven to be valuable enough. Pedro Alvarez has a knack for hitting home runs, Garrett Jones knows that he'll be re-assigned if he plays too poorly, and Andrew McCutchen is having one of the greatest offensive seasons of any Pirate ever (putting him in Honus-Bonds-Waner-Clemente-Stargell-Parker territory).

It's unrealistic to think that they can keep up their June pace for the balance of the season, but it's also unrealistic to think that they'll regress to their April/early May performance.  If Walker, Alvarez, Jones, and Barmes can get their numbers back to their historical averages, then they should have enough offense to carry the team.  At some point, since McCutchen doesn't have any protection -- he's the only guy on the team that is a real threat -- one would assume that pitchers would just pitch around him or intentionally walk him to get to the sucky parts of the line-up.  But, one would be wrong yet again, since McCutchen has such quick wrists and generates so much bat speed with a compact swing that he doesn't necessarily need a pitch to hit to get a hit.  It's true that he has a .407 OBP, but I think that also means that he's picking his spots.  If the bats behind him keep improving, then he's less likely to draw a free pass even when first base isn't open.

Ultimately, they need another bat.  Well, they could probably use two or three bats, but the basic issue is that, while their farm system isn't barren, they don't have a healthy stockade of guys with potential that they can move for guys that can play right now.  Also, there aren't a lot of bats on the market and Kevin Youkilis isn't walking through that door.

Since there aren't a lot of available hitters and since the guys currently on the roster could suffice, the other option would be to trade for a big name pitcher.  That would be a bold move, but would also put the team in a fantastic position, especially if the hitters currently on the roster continue to be productive.  Bringing in a guy like Cole Hamels or Zach Greinke would mean three solid starters in the rotation when you consider James McDonald and AJ Burnett.  That would make Bedard a very respectable fourth starter and mean that they wouldn't need to hinge too much on Correia or Karstens, as well as being able to keep Brad Lincoln has their secret weapon/long reliever/spot starter.  Additionally, in a three game playoff series, they'd have an advantage in that...

OK, I am getting ahead of myself again.  They've been lucky with regard to injuries (Pedro missed some time and Charlie Morton had Tommy John surgery, but that's about it), so that will need to continue.  They don't have another murderous stretch after the break like they did last season.  Actually, they have 13 games left against Houston, ten games against the Cubs, three games against the Rockies, six games against the Padres, three games against the Marlins, and 12 games against the Brewers, six of which are at home.  That means 47 of their next 83 games are against sub-.500 teams.  They need to win the winnable games and take as many games against quality teams and division rivals as possible.

The fact remains that 86-88 wins (maximum of 90) will win the NL Central.  If they can split with the Cardinals (six games remaining) and win more than they lose against the Reds (nine games remaining), then they have an excellent shot at finishing 82-80, if not possibly winning the division.

Now, I wouldn't give them a chance in the playoffs, but it's interesting to even discuss that possibility.

The Other Shoe

We've all been waiting for the other shoe to drop for the Pirates.  We were waiting in late May when stats started popping up about how they hadn't been over .500 this late in the season since George W. Bush's first term.  We were waiting in late June when it seemed impossible that they could win another close game with clutch bullpen help and timely hitting.  We were waiting for them to collapse right before the All-Star break.  We were waiting for them to collapse right after the All-Star break.

Then came that crucial 13 game string against strong competition.  We were sure that they would fall apart then.  They were actually far enough above .500 that a rough streak against good teams wouldn't hurt them too much in the standings.  Then the 19th inning debacle against the Braves.  Then the Phillies swept the Buccos at Philly.  But, that could actually be excused.  It wasn't so much that Philadelphia excused the Pirates as a shoddy club.  It was that the Philadelphia Phillies announced, emphatically, that they are a really, really good team.  So much so that ESPN.com took a look at other great NL teams of the last 30 years to see how the Phillies stack up.

As the saying goes, though, one sweep does not a ten game losing streak make.  That's a saying, right?  No?  Well, it is now.

The Pirates got crushed in consecutive home series by the Cubs and Padres.  The rotation had an extremely bad run, the bullpen imploded, the hitting was not-so-timely, and the offense is not built to score ten or more runs in any game.  For anyone that thought Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick were going to save this line-up, I have some Bear Sterns stock I would like to sell you.  Leave your PayPal information in the comments.

Bad news is that they didn't get Hunter Pence.  A real team with genuine playoff aspirations and deep pockets got him.  Good news is that they gave up a player to be named later and some cash for two old guys that are helping -- and will help -- the offense, if for no other reason than they make it easier for Clint Hurdle to set his line-up against lefties.  Also, we were able to finally, mercifully, put the Lyle Overbay Experiment to sleep.  It's kinda funny that he went to go live on a farm, in Indianapolis.

The thing is that it would be mean -- and inaccurate -- to characterize this team as just the "Same Old Pirates."  This is a team that captured our imagination from late May through the beginning of Steeler training camp.  They gave us something that Pirate fans have not felt in a very long time: Hope.  Many casual fans have jumped off the bandwagon.  That's fine.  There will be plenty of room for them the same time next year.

This is a young deep with a fairly strong minor league system.  Charlie Morton, James McDonald and possibly Paul Maholm and Jeff Karstens should only get better.  Neil Walker, Chase D'Arnaud, Brandon Wood, Alex Pressley, and possibly even Andrew McCutchen will get better.  There's always the hope that Brad Lincoln will pan out.  I think that Gerrit Cole will contribute sooner, rather than later, in a Stephen-Strasburg-but-not-needing-Tommy-John-surgery kind of way.

The Buccos went from sucking, to not sucking, to overachieving, to just plain achieving in a little over half a season.  To say that they've regressed to their former, sucking ways in just seven games is jumping the gun.  They're not going to win the division.  They're not going to win the wild card.  But, dammit, they stayed relevant up through when camp opened in Latrobe, and that's significant.

I know that Hurdle thinks that 500 is just a number, but that's the most realistic number that this team has left.  It's the number that the fans -- fair weather or not -- have been thinking about since Clinton left office.  That's all they have and that's where they need to get.  In a season full of ups and downs, breaking even would be a huge victory.