Walking Wounded: Steelers at Browns Preview

I picked the Steelers in this week's Pick Em because I think that they have just enough to beat the Browns.  I don't think it's going to be a blowout.  I think it's going to be a close, ugly game, though I don't know that it's going to be low scoring.  It has all the hallmarks of a game that should be low scoring, so that's probably why it won't be.

The Browns are better and they are headed in the right direction, but they're still a bad team.  They have a rookie quarterback and Dick LeBeau tends to destroy rookie quarterbacks (see: Griffin, Robert III).  Charlie Batch isn't great and his arm belongs in the Smithsonian, but the one thing he can still do is start a game or two and beat bad teams.  He did it last year when the Steelers needed a win over the hapless Rams and I think he can do it again this year.

He'll take care of the ball, Todd Haley will call a conservative game on offense, and the defense should be able to confuse and confound Brandon Weeden enough that Cleveland won't be able to run away with the game.

Now, the big thing that concerns me is Trent Richardson.  He's finally healthy -- he had a rib issue for a number games earlier in the season, but didn't miss any time -- he runs hard, and he can catch passes out of the backfield.  He's basically a bigger, slower Ray Rice.  The Steelers were able to mostly contain Rice on Sunday night and I think they'll be able to do the same against Richardson.  They just need to make sure that they wrap him up and bring him to the ground.  The tackling has been superb thus far this season, but Richardson is incredibly difficult to bring down.  He has live feet and a powerful upper body, so arm tackles aren't going to cut it.  They need to square up and fire into his mid-section, otherwise he's going to bounce off defenders and make this game a nightmare to watch.

Since I didn't write a review of the loss to the hated Ravens, I'm going to add a few personnel notes in here.

First of all, if Leftwich hurt his ribs in the first quarter and was ineffective -- and he was -- then Batch needs to go into the game.  They have Batch on the roster to go into the game in emergency situations like that.  That's the whole reason to have him on the team.  If you don't trust him to go into that situation, then don't have him on the roster.  If you don't trust him to back up Leftwich when Ben Roethlisberger is hurt, don't have him on the roster.  They signed Brian Hoyer earlier this week.  Hoyer was Tom Brady's back up in New England for the past three seasons, but they eventually lost faith in him and cut him on August 31st.  He's been available since that date.  If they didn't trust Batch to come in and Hoyer was available before the Baltimore game, why didn't they just sign him last week?  Why not sign him, then he has another week of practice under his belt and can potentially start against the Browns this week?

Ultimately, I blame Mike Tomlin for the loss against Baltimore.  He kept an injured Leftwich in the game when Batch couldn't have been any worse.  Then he claimed that Leftwich got hurt at some point in the fourth quarter, not the first quarter.  But... if Tomlin knew that Leftwich got hurt at some point during the game, why was he still in there to skip the ball 30 yards to Mike Wallace when Wallace was 50 yards away.  Batch couldn't have made that throw, either, but Leftwich also shouldn't have been in the position to need to make that throw.

Then you have the fact that they called two timeouts in the red zone to set up a really complicated passing play on third and two that ended up failing.  If they scored there, I can't guarantee that they would've won, but they would've at least had the lead.  You don't need to call two timeouts to know to hand the ball to Jonathan Dwyer (or Rashard Mendenhall) twice.  If the staff didn't trust Leftwich in that situation and needed to make sure they had just the right play called, then they should've played it safe and just handed the ball off.

I have a severe man-crush on Tomlin and I can't stay mad at him, but I have to say Sunday night's loss is on him.  Obviously, we need to continue to evaluate and press on.  Hopefully, we can stack some wins.  It's a process.

Oh, hey, Plax is back in town!  I think he can help out in the red zone, but that's about it.  Given the fact that he's only valuable in the red zone and opponents know this, that means they're going to take him away in the only situation where he's valuable.  Maybe that will open things up for the other guys -- like Heath and Paulson especially -- but I don't think that adds enough value to the team to offset all the negatives that Plax brings to the table.  When word came out that they signed Burress, a co-worker of mine IMed me and asked me what I thought about it.  I said, "I think it's great.  An old head case that gets hurt easily is exactly what this team needs."  Even though it was in text, he was able to pick up on the sarcasm.

Overall, this has been a very negative post, but I do believe there is a silver lining.  This is a team that excels in the face of adversity.  They play their best when their backs are against the wall and they feel as though nobody believes in them.  At that point, they circle the wagons and they trust the other guys in the locker room.  Tomlin is also at his best in these kinds of situations.

I think they can use that motivation to beat the Browns and possibly beat the Ravens.  They only need 3 or 4 more wins to secure a playoff spot, but the division title is probably out of reach at this point.  I think the season is far from over and I think there's a real possibility that they could get on a little roll, just in time for Roethlisberger or Leftwich to come back and lead them in the playoffs.

For this week, I say they win, but it isn't pretty.

Prediction:
Steelers 21, Browns 17

Hate to Do This: Hated Ravens at Steelers Preview

I hate the hated Ravens so much that I refer to them as "the hated Ravens."  I still hate Brian Billick and he hasn't coached for the team in like five years.  I hate Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and even Elvis Grbac (mostly because of the weird name, but he did play for Baltimore for a season).  I hate the hated Ravens so much that they almost made me hate Rod Woodson.

But, there's one thing that I hate more than the hated Ravens: Jay Cutler's face.  Maybe there's two things.  Jay Cutler's face and picking the hated Ravens to beat the Steelers.  I already went on record picking them in this week's Pick Em, but I wanted to go on record here and explain how much picking Baltimore to win Sunday night sucked.

I think the hated Ravens are going to win and I hate saying that.

Now I'm going to talk about what the Steelers need to do to win.  It's not as impossible as it might seem.

Consider the following:

1. The Steelers are 4-0 at home (sure, they haven't beaten any good teams there yet, but they're undefeated.)
2. Baltimore is 2-2 on the road and their two road wins are against the Chiefs (with a Orioles-Royals score of 9-6) and the Browns (25-15).
3. The Unibrow sucks on the road this season.  Home numbers: 113-173-1612-10-3-108.3.  Road numbers: 71-136-719-3-4-62.7.  He gains 45 quarterback rating points and four yards per attempt at home.  Or, more importantly, he loses four yards an attempt and 45 rating points on the road.
4. For the first time in recent memory, the hated Ravens aren't defending the run well.  They rank 26th in the league in yards allowed, giving up 132 rushing yards a game.
5. In four home games, the Steelers have given up an average of 12.3 points per game.

Those are all good trends, because the Steelers need to do the following things to win the game:

1. Avoid getting off to a slow start.
2. Not turn the ball over.
3. Make it a low scoring game.
4. Run the ball effectively and frequently.

Trouble is, I think they'll only be able to accomplish #2.  They've done an exceptional job taking care of the ball thus far this season and I think that they'll err on the side of caution on offense -- no high risk pass plays, running backs keep both hands on the ball.  But, that's only one of the four things they need to do to win.

I think they'll get off to a slow start.  The hated Ravens know the Steelers almost as well as they know themselves.  They know that this team can't come back from a big deficit without Ben Roethlisberger.  Baltimore's primary objective will be to get off to a fast start and get the Steelers off balance as quickly as possible.

Byron Leftwich won't be as bad as he was against the Chiefs.  He'll have a full week of practice under his belt for this game and Todd Haley will put together a game plan that works with Leftwich's strengths.  There has been a lot of chatter about the fact that Leftwich is a bad fit for Haley's offense.  But, the fact of the matter is that Haley designed this year's offense -- and last week's game plan -- around Ben Roethlisberger and the other personnel the Steelers have on the roster.  When they hired him as offensive coordinator, I wrote about the fact that he's a personnel guy, not a system guy.  When he had Kurt Warner and a bunch of great receivers in Arizona, he called a lot of passes.  When he had Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones in Kansas City, he called a lot of runs.  When he realized that the Steelers had a bunch of explosive playmakers at receiver and an offensive line that had trouble protecting its quarterback, he called a lot of quick timing passes and screens.  When Roethlisberger Monday night's game, they already had the game plan installed and he couldn't start calling stuff that was completely different than what they had practiced all week.  On Sunday night, his game plan will be optimized to make the most of what Leftwich brings to the table.  The problem there is that it's not just Leftwich.

Antonio Brown will probably miss this game.  Rashard Mendenhall will probably start after a long layoff.  The offensive line still has pass protection issue.  There are a lot of moving parts that are either unavailable or rusty.  Couple that with the fact that Baltimore will want to do whatever they can to start fast and shut the Steelers down early and you can see how it's hard to imagine that they'll avoid getting off to slow start.

I think that they can keep the game low scoring even if they get off to a slow start, but I don't think that means they'll win.  If they fall behind 14-0 or 10-0, they'll eventually rally, but I think they'll fall short.

Running the ball effectively and frequently is the last thing on the list, but it's also the most important.  It affects whether or not they'll be able to accomplish #1 and #4.  If they start out running the ball well, that takes the early pressure off Leftwich.  If they keep running the ball well, that helps keep the ball away from Unibrow and the ever-deadly Ray Rice.  It also sets up the play action passing game, which will slow down the pass rush of the hated Ravens and make things easier on Leftwich.

But... the Ravens know all this, which is why they'll stack the box, look to stop the run at all costs, and force Leftwich to beat them.  They'll also bring a lot of extra defenders on the blitz when Haley does call a pass, knowing that they don't have the personnel to cover the Steelers receivers for more than three seconds. 

Most of the pressure will come up the middle, since Leftwich doesn't have the mobility to break outside the tackle box and extend the play like Roethlisberger does.  That's a problem because the interior linemen -- though they've done an exceptional job blowing up big holes between the tackles in the running game -- have had some serious issues in pass protection.

So... if the Steelers can run the ball well out of the gate and if they don't turn the ball over and if the hated Ravens defense doesn't embed Leftwich into the Heinz Field turf in the first half and if they can keep Ray Rice contained, they'll be able to win a close game. 

And, while I'm asking for stuff, I'd like a pony.

Prediction:
Hated Ravens 17, Steelers 10

Good News and Bad News: Chiefs at Steelers

At the end of regulation, Weidman turned to me and we had the following conversation.

Weidman: Here's what's going to happen: Chiefs win the toss, they elect to receive, then they finally play like the Chiefs and turn the ball over.  Suisham wins it with a field goal.

Me: Turnover could also be a pick six.  That also works.

Weidman: No.  Suisham needs to win it.  That's what needs to happen.

Me: OK, then.  That works, too.

The game played out exactly as Weidman had foreseen it.  That was the coolest thing that happened last night.

Sure, the Steelers won, which was cool.  But, it was cool like finding out that the girl you hooked up with at the bar last month isn't pregnant.  Or cool like discovering that the Check Engine light in your car came on because it had been more than six months since your last oil change.  It's more a feeling of relief than anything.

Good news first:

1. A win is a win.  Lest you forget, I am always here to point that fact out, especially after an especially ugly victory.
2. The Steelers committed fewer penalties and allowed fewer sacks than Kansas City.  I don't care if the Chiefs are 1-7, that's still something that's good to keep track of, especially this season.
3. Even though the defense didn't force turnovers in the quantities we expected, they got one when it really mattered.
4. You can talk all you want about how the defense choked and allowed a 4th and 15 conversion that led to Kansas City tying the game, but they also held Matt Cassel to a 46 quarterback rating and held Jamaal Charles in check in the second half.  The game could've gotten out of hand early in the first or midway through the third, but the defense didn't allow that to happen.
5. Lawrence Timmons is having himself one hell of a season.
6. Looks like Ben Roethlisberger isn't done for the season, which is kind of what I expected to hear this morning after watching his right arm dangle at his side as he left the field last night.

Bad News:

1. They didn't run the ball effectively.  That allowed the secondary to play tight on the Steelers receivers, which allowed the cornerbacks to fill in hard in run support, which led to even less effective running.  I think it was a combination of a strong effort by the Chiefs defensive line, a lackluster performance by the interior of the Steeler offensive line, and the fact that Mike Tomlin benched Isaac Redman after he fumbled in the first quarter.  Redman came back, but neither he nor Jonathan Dwyer was able to find a rhythm.  It was a little bit of all those factors, but deciding to take Redman out was the only thing that could really be controlled.  I think it held the running game back, but I might also just be mad because Redman's on my fantasy team and I needed another big game out of him.
2. Jon Gruden was droning on about the fact that the Chiefs were carving the left side of the Steeler defense up in the run game.  At least he was in the first half, when they were.  In the second half, when Ziggy Hood started staying in his lanes and engaging two blockers by shooting the gap like he's supposed to, Gruden didn't mention why they were no longer having success on that side.  Hood didn't suddenly forget what he was supposed to do, he's just inconsistent.  Gap discipline and tackling fundamentals had been two strong areas for the defense the last month.  In the first half, they weren't there, which is part of the reason Kansas City jumped to a 10-0 lead. Again, not taking anything away from the Chiefs offensive line, but that's part of the reason they were successful.
3. With five minutes remaining in the third quarter, Byron Leftwich decided he wanted to throw a pass.  He's still winding up.  Dear God, it takes forever for that man to throw a football.  With the way the protection has been against quality pass rushers, that's going to be an issue.  Oh, hey, look at that!  They play the hated Ravens next week.
4. They're going to have trouble throwing the ball and running the ball without Roethlisberger in the line-up, as evidenced by their production on offense in the second half.
5. One turnover forced in 4+ quarters, zero turnovers forced in regulation, against one of the most generous offenses in the history of the NFL.
6. Really, I could nit pick about a dozen or so different things, but the important thing is that the Chiefs managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and the Steelers got a win.

Roethlisberger hurt his shoulder and no one -- not even the doctors, because that's what tests and MRIs are for -- knows for sure how bad it is and how long he's going to be out.  It doesn't look like something that could land him on injured reserve, but it's definitely not a minor injury and could be a nagging issue (like Troy's calf this season and Woodley's hamstring last season).

As much as I like to kid Leftwich for taking 35 minutes to wind up and throw a pass and Charlie Batch for being 100 years old, they're not bad quarterbacks.  Earlier today, I was talking to a couple of guys I work with and I described Leftwich as "about average" and Batch as "not awesome."  What exactly that means is up for interpretation (hi there, Comments section!), but there's no getting around this fact: Neither of those guys is anywhere near as good as Ben Roethlisberger.

They'll be able to win some games with Leftwich or Batch under center -- they may, possibly, even be able to split with Baltimore -- but they're not winning the division with those guys and they're definitely not making a playoff run without Roethlisberger.

Basically, the really bad news is that we all just have to wait and see just how bad Ben's shoulder is hurt and how long it will take for him to come back.

Steelers Preseason Game 2 Watchlist

My biggest takeaway from the first pre-season game against the Eagles is that we need the NFL officials to negotiate a contract with the NFL and come back.  The replacement officials aren't cutting it.  There were missed calls on both sides that both helped and hurt the Steelers.  The effect on the game really isn't worth arguing because it was an exhibition game, but you know how people like to ticky tack back and forth about this call or that call when the games actually count.  I'm not one to do that, regardless of how it affects the Steelers in a given game, but the fact that the replacement officials were entirely too inconsistent was driving me crazy.  So, I guess one of the things on my watchlist for this game is the officials.  I want to see if they're getting any better or not.  My guess is that they won't be any better and it will make me miss the old referees even more.

The other big thing I'll be watching is the offensive game plan.  Todd Haley mentioned a week or so ago that the entire offense is installed at this point.  That means that the largely "horizontal" passing game we saw against Philly might be what we see for the rest of the season, especially if Mike Wallace doesn't come back.  Now, I know that coordinators usually strip things down and keep things vanilla for the pre-season, but that seemed a little too stripped down and too vanilla.  If we see more of the same on Sunday night, that may be what's in store for the offense during the season.  I hope not, though I'm glad they're running more screen passes, but I guess that's why they play the games.

Other stuff I'll be watching:

1. I was not impressed with Curtis Brown and any of the back-up safeties not named Ryan Mundy.  I hope that, with a week of practice under their belts, they'll improve their overall awareness and cover their assigned areas (70 yard touchdown pass in game one was mostly Myron Rolle's fault, but Brown never should've lost track of him).
2. It looks like Keenan Lewis is now in the driver's seat for the #2 cornerback position, which means that Cortez Allen will probably get the start.  I was impressed with both of them, but I'd really like to see some consistency there.  Whoever is the starter, start getting them more reps with the first team.
3. Chris Carter looked pretty lost and slow last Thursday.  Maybe he improves, but I think a better plan is to start saying novenas that Harrison and Worilds get healthy.
4. Steve McLendon was solid in limited action against the Eagles and I want to see more of him.  Given the fact that Casey Hampton and Rashard Mendenhall just got activated off the PUP list, this seems like as good a chance as any for McLendon to show what he can do.
5. Speaking of guys that will get a chance to show what they can do, Baron Batch and Jonathan Dwyer are both going to get a lot of touches with Mendenhall and Redman not available and I'm excited to see how the perform running behind the first- and second-team offensive lines.  I've said all along that I think Batch is really just Verron Haynes, Jr; a guy that can carry here and there but is mostly a third down back.  If he can be an every down guy or at least looks a lot better than he did against Philly (which shouldn't be difficult), then that would make me less nervous about the running back position.  The fact that Mendenhall was taken off the PUP list doesn't make me less nervous.  It makes me think they're going to test him a little, find that he's not anywhere near ready, and put him on IR.  I'm thinking that about Big Snack, too, which is why they should put McLendon in there as much as possible.
6. Mike Adams can't possibly be as bad as he looked against the Eagles.  He played poorly, then got hurt, which is not an auspicious way for a guy to begin his career.  I'd like to see him play a bunch of snaps against the Colts, but I honestly don't think he's going to secure the starting job.  He's too far behind and the coaching staff loves Max Starks too much.
7. I think DeCastro is going to do just fine and he'll open the season at right guard, but I'd still like to see him get a lot of snaps and work out some of the kinks.  
8. Both rookies looked great in the running game, which makes me think that Pouncey has some work to do yet on line calls.  The past two seasons, he was mostly surrounded by guys that had been there longer than him and already knew what to do.  That's probably not going to be the case this season and he needs to step up.
9. They need to get the ball to Chris Rainey eight times on offense.  He may lose eight yards on the first seven touches, but he could also break that eighth touch for a 60 yard touchdown.  The guy is explosive and I want to see more of him and how he works in different personnel groupings, especially against the opponent's first team defense.
10. Dear God: Please no injuries to Roethlisberger and Leftwich.  Thanks.

That's it.  Game's on Sunday night football on NBC.  Pre-season football... feel the excitement!