It's a Mess: Steelers at Jets Preview

Before the season started, I had this game penciled in as a win.  The Jets were in shambles, they were starting a rookie at quarterback, Mark Sanchez was a huge distraction, and Rex Ryan looked like he was trying to get fired.  As things stand now, I have a feeling that the New York Jets are looking at the Steelers and thinking, "Man, that team has some serious issues."

The defense can't tackle or make any big plays, the offensive line is in disarray, they just traded for a left tackle that the Arizona Cardinals were willing to pay $3 million to get rid of, there's some kind of issue with ping pong that I don't quite understand, the offensive coordinator is a colossal douche, they're 0-4, and Ryan Clark and Ben Roethlisberger have a mini-feud going.  All that I honestly feel as though I'm forgetting something.

I had hoped that the bye week would give them a chance to sort a few things out and get a little bit more stable on all fronts, but the opposite seems to have happened.  They appear to have gone further off the rails and I'm not sure how much further they're going to get off course.  I would say that I don't think it's possible for things to get worse, but I thought that heading into the bye week... and they got worse.

I think that the defense will play better than they've shown the past two games.  I think that they'll eventually register a sack and force a turnover.  I think they won't give up a kajillion yards rushing and 34 points against New York.

I think that the offensive line will be in better shape with Mike Adams out of there and Kelvin Beacham  or Levi Brown in.  I think the receivers will continue to improve and mature and that the pass offense has the potential to be pretty explosive by the end of the season.

But, this is still a flawed team that has major talent holes at a number of positions.  Demoting Ziggy Hood and Mike Adams sends a message and their replacements will be better, but it's doubtful that they'll be considerably better, or at least good enough that right end and left tackle won't be areas of weakness. Getting Le'Veon Bell and Heath back will help boost the offense and give Ben Roethlisberger and Todd Haley more options.

The issue is that all of these things are like having a kid to save a bad marriage: The dynamic changes, but the old problems are still there.  In order to salvage the season and take big steps forward, they need to fundamentally change how they approach things.

They need to max protect more, take more shots down the field, and run more when they get into the red zone.  They need to blitz more, play more man coverage, and take more chances on defense.  They had been playing it safe thus far, only going all out -- at least on offense -- when they felt they had no other choice.  They assumed that they had the talent and football savvy to win enough games to at least be competitive, but they overestimated the talent on hand by a lot and weren't anywhere near as savvy as they thought.

They're a quarter of the way through the season and doing things the same way they've always done them isn't working.  They need to step outside their comfort zone, take some chances, and basically go big or go home.  I have no idea if they'll succeed or not if they take that chance, but they haven't won any games playing it safe, so it's worth a shot.

Sure, the Jets have a rookie quarterback, a ton of injuries on offense, and they traded their best defensive player in the offseason.  They're also 3-2, they're at home, they know who they are, and they know how to get where they want to go.  They may be a mess, but they're not as big a mess as the Steelers right now.

Prediction:
Jets 17, Steelers 16

Preseason Watchlist: Steelers vs. Giants

I have to say that the preseason snuck up on me this year.  I could've sworn that the draft just happened, then suddenly I turn around and Training Camp is opening.

Here's what I'm going to be watching for tonight, since it doesn't make sense to put much stock in who wins and loses.  It's only the preseason, but there are some interesting things to watch.

Zone Blocking Scheme:

They're implementing a new blocking scheme this year and it's a zone blocking scheme instead of the traditional "everyone has a guy they're assigned to block" scheme that they've used since The Chief bought the team.

It's a change in strategy, but the word on the street is that it's not Todd Haley's idea/fault.  The Steelers wanted to move to this kind of blocking scheme since 2011, but they didn't have the athletes at tackle to pull it off.

This is just for the running game, not the passing game.  The idea is that, unlike a man blocking scheme, where you "put a hat on a hat" and everyone blocks their assigned guy, each lineman is responsible for a zone and needs to block anyone that is in that zone/comes into that zone.  The tackles push to the sidelines and interior linemen push towards the middle of the field.  In theory, that creates seams and cut-back lanes in the defense that the running backs will then be able to run through.

Honestly, I don't think we have the athletes at running back to pull this off, but I am willing to try anything that will improve the running game. In this blocking scheme, the running back needs to have great short area quickness to burst through the seams and cut-back lanes, excellent vision to see those openings develop, and good decision-making ability (or at least the ability to make quick decisions and commit to them) so that he hits the hole before it closes.  No one on the roster in 2012 fits that bill, with the possible exception of Rashard Mendenhall.  He might have been a good fit, but he's now in Arizona.  Word is that Le'Veon Bell has the right kind of skillset to run behind this scheme and be successful, so that's another thing to watch.

The Rookies:

Really, there are two rookie classes to evaluate in this game, since DeCastro and Adams were hurt most of last season, third round pick Sean Spence missed all of last season on injured reserve, and Alameda Ta'amu went on a drunken rampage through South Side, which hurt his chances to crack the line-up.

Adams and DeCastro will be in starting roles and it'll be nice to see them in action, along with the fact that they'll be working in the new zone blocking scheme.  Spence and Ta'amu will be playing more, because they're lower on the depth chart, but they're both playing positions -- Spence at inside linebacker and Ta'amu at defensive tackle -- where there isn't an entrenched, established guy.  If they play well, they could unseat the guy in front of them on the depth chart, which is always interesting to watch.

I mentioned Bell, who has apparently had a great camp.  Jarvis Jones has also done extremely well by all accounts and I'm most excited to see him play.  I really need to see him step into the void that James Harrison left behind, especially since I don't trust Jason Worilds any farther than I can throw him.

Since all the cornerbacks on the roster are working through some type of injury, Shamarko Thomas will be playing nickel back with the first team defense tonight.  I'm really looking forward to seeing him play.  His natural position is safety, but if he can also help out as a nickel cornerback, then that's another thing he can do to help this team.  Ryan Clark and Troy aren't getting any younger, Ryan Mundy will be on the other team's sideline, and it would be super nice if this kid stepped up and started playing well from the get-go.

Rookie receivers Justin Brown and Markus Wheaton should get a lot of work, since there are now open spots at 4th and 5th receiver after the Plaxico Burress injury.  There are actually a lot of warm bodies at the position -- there are 11 guys in total, counting Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Jerricho Cotchery, and Plax, who probably won't have to fight for their roster spots -- and I'm hoping that this fosters competition for remaining roster spots.  The more tough decisions these young guys can make the coaches make, the better the depth at the position.

Explosive Plays:

The Steelers were a really, really boring team last year.  They didn't generate a lot of explosive plays on offense and they played things ultra-conservative on defense.  Dick LeBeau knew that he didn't have the personnel to take a lot of chances and try to make a lot of splash plays, so he tried to teach the guys on defense to keep everything in front of them and not be a hero.  The result was that they didn't allow a lot of 20+, 30+, or 40+ yard plays, but they also didn't record a lot of sacks or force very many turnovers.

On offense, they were hesitant to stretch the field and go for the big play and their running backs were mostly "two yards and a cloud of dust" guys that didn't get yards in chunks.

You ended up with an 8-8 team that played vanilla games that didn't feature many big plays on offense or defense, not a lot of sacks or turnovers, and a lot of low-scoring slugfests.  The 2009 Steelers finished 8-8, but at least they were exciting.  They forced turnovers like crazy, turned the ball over like crazy, and big plays were all over the place.  Another team like that may kill me, but it's a chance I'm wiling to take.

At this point, I suspect that the 2013 Steelers will finish anywhere from 6-10 to 8-8 and I'm prepared for that.  I just don't want it to be boring.

What I'm looking for tonight is whether or not the young kids have the swagger and the skill to go out and try and make something happen.  They may let up some big plays, they may make some big plays, but in the end what I'm looking for is something interesting and exciting.  With the number of players that are going to either retire or get cut in the next couple of seasons, I want to see what this next generation is made of.

No Injuries:

Just wanted to make sure I said it.  As long as we make it through tonight without anyone getting seriously hurt, that's a net win.

Hate to Do This: Hated Ravens at Steelers Preview

I hate the hated Ravens so much that I refer to them as "the hated Ravens."  I still hate Brian Billick and he hasn't coached for the team in like five years.  I hate Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and even Elvis Grbac (mostly because of the weird name, but he did play for Baltimore for a season).  I hate the hated Ravens so much that they almost made me hate Rod Woodson.

But, there's one thing that I hate more than the hated Ravens: Jay Cutler's face.  Maybe there's two things.  Jay Cutler's face and picking the hated Ravens to beat the Steelers.  I already went on record picking them in this week's Pick Em, but I wanted to go on record here and explain how much picking Baltimore to win Sunday night sucked.

I think the hated Ravens are going to win and I hate saying that.

Now I'm going to talk about what the Steelers need to do to win.  It's not as impossible as it might seem.

Consider the following:

1. The Steelers are 4-0 at home (sure, they haven't beaten any good teams there yet, but they're undefeated.)
2. Baltimore is 2-2 on the road and their two road wins are against the Chiefs (with a Orioles-Royals score of 9-6) and the Browns (25-15).
3. The Unibrow sucks on the road this season.  Home numbers: 113-173-1612-10-3-108.3.  Road numbers: 71-136-719-3-4-62.7.  He gains 45 quarterback rating points and four yards per attempt at home.  Or, more importantly, he loses four yards an attempt and 45 rating points on the road.
4. For the first time in recent memory, the hated Ravens aren't defending the run well.  They rank 26th in the league in yards allowed, giving up 132 rushing yards a game.
5. In four home games, the Steelers have given up an average of 12.3 points per game.

Those are all good trends, because the Steelers need to do the following things to win the game:

1. Avoid getting off to a slow start.
2. Not turn the ball over.
3. Make it a low scoring game.
4. Run the ball effectively and frequently.

Trouble is, I think they'll only be able to accomplish #2.  They've done an exceptional job taking care of the ball thus far this season and I think that they'll err on the side of caution on offense -- no high risk pass plays, running backs keep both hands on the ball.  But, that's only one of the four things they need to do to win.

I think they'll get off to a slow start.  The hated Ravens know the Steelers almost as well as they know themselves.  They know that this team can't come back from a big deficit without Ben Roethlisberger.  Baltimore's primary objective will be to get off to a fast start and get the Steelers off balance as quickly as possible.

Byron Leftwich won't be as bad as he was against the Chiefs.  He'll have a full week of practice under his belt for this game and Todd Haley will put together a game plan that works with Leftwich's strengths.  There has been a lot of chatter about the fact that Leftwich is a bad fit for Haley's offense.  But, the fact of the matter is that Haley designed this year's offense -- and last week's game plan -- around Ben Roethlisberger and the other personnel the Steelers have on the roster.  When they hired him as offensive coordinator, I wrote about the fact that he's a personnel guy, not a system guy.  When he had Kurt Warner and a bunch of great receivers in Arizona, he called a lot of passes.  When he had Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones in Kansas City, he called a lot of runs.  When he realized that the Steelers had a bunch of explosive playmakers at receiver and an offensive line that had trouble protecting its quarterback, he called a lot of quick timing passes and screens.  When Roethlisberger Monday night's game, they already had the game plan installed and he couldn't start calling stuff that was completely different than what they had practiced all week.  On Sunday night, his game plan will be optimized to make the most of what Leftwich brings to the table.  The problem there is that it's not just Leftwich.

Antonio Brown will probably miss this game.  Rashard Mendenhall will probably start after a long layoff.  The offensive line still has pass protection issue.  There are a lot of moving parts that are either unavailable or rusty.  Couple that with the fact that Baltimore will want to do whatever they can to start fast and shut the Steelers down early and you can see how it's hard to imagine that they'll avoid getting off to slow start.

I think that they can keep the game low scoring even if they get off to a slow start, but I don't think that means they'll win.  If they fall behind 14-0 or 10-0, they'll eventually rally, but I think they'll fall short.

Running the ball effectively and frequently is the last thing on the list, but it's also the most important.  It affects whether or not they'll be able to accomplish #1 and #4.  If they start out running the ball well, that takes the early pressure off Leftwich.  If they keep running the ball well, that helps keep the ball away from Unibrow and the ever-deadly Ray Rice.  It also sets up the play action passing game, which will slow down the pass rush of the hated Ravens and make things easier on Leftwich.

But... the Ravens know all this, which is why they'll stack the box, look to stop the run at all costs, and force Leftwich to beat them.  They'll also bring a lot of extra defenders on the blitz when Haley does call a pass, knowing that they don't have the personnel to cover the Steelers receivers for more than three seconds. 

Most of the pressure will come up the middle, since Leftwich doesn't have the mobility to break outside the tackle box and extend the play like Roethlisberger does.  That's a problem because the interior linemen -- though they've done an exceptional job blowing up big holes between the tackles in the running game -- have had some serious issues in pass protection.

So... if the Steelers can run the ball well out of the gate and if they don't turn the ball over and if the hated Ravens defense doesn't embed Leftwich into the Heinz Field turf in the first half and if they can keep Ray Rice contained, they'll be able to win a close game. 

And, while I'm asking for stuff, I'd like a pony.

Prediction:
Hated Ravens 17, Steelers 10

The Todd Haley Situation

It's been quite some time since I posted anything -- a little over three weeks -- so I figured I'd try to catch up.

When I heard that Todd Haley was interviewing for the offensive coordinator job, I was less than pleased.  I knew the Steelers would end up hiring him and I had some serious reservations about him.  The more I thought about it, the more I realized those reservations boiled down to one thing: Ken Whisenhunt had a chance to bring Haley back in the Steelers West fold and decided against it.  That's really it.  My thinking was, Haley is a known quantity in Arizona.  I thought that, if Whisenhunt passed on the opportunity to bring Haley back, then he must be damaged goods.

Now, that could still be true, but Haley does bring a lot of positive things to the table.

1. When he's had the personnel to work with, his offenses have always performed well.  I'm giving him a pass for last year in Kansas City, even if the Chiefs did not.
2. He doesn't have an existing relationship with Ben Roethlisberger and the first few weeks of their current relationship have been rocky.
3. He's not a passing guy or a running guy.  He's a guy that takes the players he has on hand and designs the offense from there.

For #1, you could look at his track record in Arizona or the fact that he helped turn Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe into fantasy football all-stars in 2010.

Number 2 and Number 3 are both positive and important because those two qualities make him the polar opposite of Bruce Arians.  The big things that always annoyed me about Arians were the facts that he was too buddy-buddy with Roethlisberger and he was always fond of saying, "The offense is the offense."  Basically, he had his design, the players would run it, and the other team's defense needed to try and stop it.  When it worked, it was very effective.  When it didn't, Arians was very reluctant to adjust, and the offense was not so effective.

A lot has been made about the fact that Roethlisberger wasn't happy with the decision to let Arians go and that he hasn't been very responsive to Haley since it was announced he would be the team's next offensive coordinator.  I think that talk is overblown and that most of it, if not all of it, will be forgotten when the team reports back to work.  Remember when Roethlisberger's suspension was supposed to divide the team?  Or Rashard Mendenhall's Twitter remarks?  James Harrison's Men's Journal interview?  Hines Ward's DUI?  None of it did.  This longer room is too tight, too strong, and Mike Tomlin has these guys too focused to get derailed by any distractions.

It also couldn't hurt for Roethlisberger to feel that he has something to prove and that there are people out there that don't believe in him.  He's a very self-motivated guy, but he can often become complacent.  I think the Haley hiring will light a bit of a fire under him.

When Haley had Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston, he threw the ball a lot and the offense was extremely successful.  When he had Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles, he ran the ball a lot and the offense was extremely successful.  When Charles blew out his knee early in the 2011 season and Matt Cassel was placed on injured reserve, Haley did the best he could with Dexter McCluster and Tyler Palko.

Since Mendenhall will probably start the season on the PUP list and Ike Redman isn't exactly a franchise back, Haley will probably focus on throwing the ball more.  He's got Roethlisberger and a bunch of talent at wide receiver -- which is similar to the situation he had in Arizona -- so it makes sense to get eight or nine yards per pass attempt instead of three or four yards per rush attempt.

The only issue there is if ownership keeps meddling with the offense.  They already dropped the ball big time by completely screwing up the Arians firing/retiring/lack of contract extension.  My hope is that they take more of a "hands off" approach, at least for the upcoming season, and let the football people do their jobs.  

That's my hope, anyway.