Before the season started, I had this game penciled in as a win. The Jets were in shambles, they were starting a rookie at quarterback, Mark Sanchez was a huge distraction, and Rex Ryan looked like he was trying to get fired. As things stand now, I have a feeling that the New York Jets are looking at the Steelers and thinking, "Man, that team has some serious issues."
The defense can't tackle or make any big plays, the offensive line is in disarray, they just traded for a left tackle that the Arizona Cardinals were willing to pay $3 million to get rid of, there's some kind of issue with ping pong that I don't quite understand, the offensive coordinator is a colossal douche, they're 0-4, and Ryan Clark and Ben Roethlisberger have a mini-feud going. All that I honestly feel as though I'm forgetting something.
I had hoped that the bye week would give them a chance to sort a few things out and get a little bit more stable on all fronts, but the opposite seems to have happened. They appear to have gone further off the rails and I'm not sure how much further they're going to get off course. I would say that I don't think it's possible for things to get worse, but I thought that heading into the bye week... and they got worse.
I think that the defense will play better than they've shown the past two games. I think that they'll eventually register a sack and force a turnover. I think they won't give up a kajillion yards rushing and 34 points against New York.
I think that the offensive line will be in better shape with Mike Adams out of there and Kelvin Beacham or Levi Brown in. I think the receivers will continue to improve and mature and that the pass offense has the potential to be pretty explosive by the end of the season.
But, this is still a flawed team that has major talent holes at a number of positions. Demoting Ziggy Hood and Mike Adams sends a message and their replacements will be better, but it's doubtful that they'll be considerably better, or at least good enough that right end and left tackle won't be areas of weakness. Getting Le'Veon Bell and Heath back will help boost the offense and give Ben Roethlisberger and Todd Haley more options.
The issue is that all of these things are like having a kid to save a bad marriage: The dynamic changes, but the old problems are still there. In order to salvage the season and take big steps forward, they need to fundamentally change how they approach things.
They need to max protect more, take more shots down the field, and run more when they get into the red zone. They need to blitz more, play more man coverage, and take more chances on defense. They had been playing it safe thus far, only going all out -- at least on offense -- when they felt they had no other choice. They assumed that they had the talent and football savvy to win enough games to at least be competitive, but they overestimated the talent on hand by a lot and weren't anywhere near as savvy as they thought.
They're a quarter of the way through the season and doing things the same way they've always done them isn't working. They need to step outside their comfort zone, take some chances, and basically go big or go home. I have no idea if they'll succeed or not if they take that chance, but they haven't won any games playing it safe, so it's worth a shot.
Sure, the Jets have a rookie quarterback, a ton of injuries on offense, and they traded their best defensive player in the offseason. They're also 3-2, they're at home, they know who they are, and they know how to get where they want to go. They may be a mess, but they're not as big a mess as the Steelers right now.
Prediction:
Jets 17, Steelers 16
Showing posts with label steelers defense. Show all posts
Showing posts with label steelers defense. Show all posts
Friday, October 11, 2013
Thursday, October 06, 2011
Please Don't Let CJ Murder Us: Steelers vs. Titans Preview
My analysis for Sunday's game against Tennessee basically comes down to the title of this post. Chris Johnson is a game-murdering death stick on two legs. If you thought the Steeler defense looked slow and old against Ray Rice and Arian Foster, then they are going to look like a bunch of 90 year old women with two arthritic hips against Johnson.
Since Aaron Smith and Casey Hampton didn't practice today and James Harrison has been ruled out, that means that, with Jason Worilds also out, Larry Foote is going to be playing Lawrence Timmons' position and Timmons is going to be replacing Harrison. Two guys hurt, two guys playing out of position. On a defense that has already had issues stopping the run. I like Chris Hoke. I like Ziggy Hood. I'm glad that Keisel is going to be back. They all represent speed upgrades on defense. But, against Johnson, you're still talking about a bunch of turtles on Red Bull as opposed to a bunch of regular turtles.
Johnson has taken a while to get back up to speed after his holdout, but he gained 101 yards on 23 carries against Cleveland last week and says that he now feels comfortable with the new blocking schemes and linemen in front of him. That is incredibly bad news for the Steelers. If this were 2004-2010, I would say that the best course of action would be to line up and have the Titans try their best. Historically, it's been impossible to run on the Steelers, which would mean the game would be be put in Matt Hasselbeck's hands. Historically, I would really like the odds in that situation.
But, this ain't history. This is 2011.
First of all, the Titans went 2-1 while Johnson was struggling and Elizabeth Hasselbeck's Husband's Brother (henceforth EHHB, because I'm tired of spelling the word Hasselbeck) stepped up in a big way. He's completing almost 67 percent of his passes and has eight touchdowns and three interceptions. He hasn't been a turnover machine like Roethlisberger. He's been efficient and pretty explosive, averaging 8.7 yards per attempt (which is better than Roethlisberger is averaging).
So, you have EHHB and CJ, which is a lethal combination. The Titans gave up 350 passing yards last week to a pretty pedestrian Browns pass offense, but they also limited a pretty good running team to 3.8 yards per carry. Colt McCoy was sacked only four times in 65 dropbacks, but Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach are slightly better than Jonathan Scott/Max Starks and Chris Kemoeatu/Doug Legursky. If Ben Roethlisberger and his gammy left foot drop back to pass 65 times on Sunday, he will be sacked more than four times.
Oh, yeah. Roethlisberger is hurt. Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore did not practice. That means that Isaac Redman is going to be the lead back (possibly the only back). Still, I think the Steelers adjust enough on offense and Redman will play well enough behind a spotty offensive line, that this game will not be an embarrassing blowout. Tennessee has a pretty good defense, but they're not as good as Baltimore or Houston, so the Steelers should be able to score some points.
But, the only way they can score enough points to win is if they stop Chris Johnson. In previous seasons, they may have stopped Johnson by sound gap discipline, winning battles at the point of attack, and taking away cutback lanes with back side pursuit. This season, they don't seem to be able to do that. If Johnson sees the kinds of huge holes and wide open cutback lanes that Foster saw last week, he is going to destroy the Steelers defense. EHHB will pick up whatever points and yardage are left over.
The other way to stop Johnson is to keep the ball the hell away from him so that he doesn't get to touch it. The best way to do that is by running the ball effectively and holding a hefty advantage in time of possession. That will keep the ball away from Johnson, it will keep the old, tired defense off the field, and it will also keep Roethlisberger from dropping back 65 times, which would probably result in his death (or at least maiming).
In order to keep the Titans from crushing an already ailing Roethlisberger, Bruce Arians should call more short passes. It seems like Mike Wallace gains an average of 15 yards on every one of those hitch screens they throw him, so how about throwing more than one of those a game? How about throwing two to Wallace, one to Emmanuel Sanders and maybe a bubble screen or two to Antonio Brown just to mix things up?
What I'm proposing is not a radical concept, but talking about it and doing it are two different things entirely. The Steelers were able to successfully implement this strategy in Week 2 against the Seahawks, but Seattle is nowhere near as good a team as the Titans. They're too strong and too talented for the Steelers to be able to lean on them until they fall over. But, the only other option is to keep trying to score by throwing the ball and keep giving the ball back to Johnson. That strategy has a higher probability of failure.
The only upside is that they're at home and they've got the "us against the world" mentality going for them, which is almost as effective a motivator as Mike Tomlin. We'll see if the home crowd and a psychological edge are enough to overcome the physical and talent mismatches.
I doubt they do.
Prediction:
Titans 21, Steelers 13
Since Aaron Smith and Casey Hampton didn't practice today and James Harrison has been ruled out, that means that, with Jason Worilds also out, Larry Foote is going to be playing Lawrence Timmons' position and Timmons is going to be replacing Harrison. Two guys hurt, two guys playing out of position. On a defense that has already had issues stopping the run. I like Chris Hoke. I like Ziggy Hood. I'm glad that Keisel is going to be back. They all represent speed upgrades on defense. But, against Johnson, you're still talking about a bunch of turtles on Red Bull as opposed to a bunch of regular turtles.
Johnson has taken a while to get back up to speed after his holdout, but he gained 101 yards on 23 carries against Cleveland last week and says that he now feels comfortable with the new blocking schemes and linemen in front of him. That is incredibly bad news for the Steelers. If this were 2004-2010, I would say that the best course of action would be to line up and have the Titans try their best. Historically, it's been impossible to run on the Steelers, which would mean the game would be be put in Matt Hasselbeck's hands. Historically, I would really like the odds in that situation.
But, this ain't history. This is 2011.
First of all, the Titans went 2-1 while Johnson was struggling and Elizabeth Hasselbeck's Husband's Brother (henceforth EHHB, because I'm tired of spelling the word Hasselbeck) stepped up in a big way. He's completing almost 67 percent of his passes and has eight touchdowns and three interceptions. He hasn't been a turnover machine like Roethlisberger. He's been efficient and pretty explosive, averaging 8.7 yards per attempt (which is better than Roethlisberger is averaging).
So, you have EHHB and CJ, which is a lethal combination. The Titans gave up 350 passing yards last week to a pretty pedestrian Browns pass offense, but they also limited a pretty good running team to 3.8 yards per carry. Colt McCoy was sacked only four times in 65 dropbacks, but Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach are slightly better than Jonathan Scott/Max Starks and Chris Kemoeatu/Doug Legursky. If Ben Roethlisberger and his gammy left foot drop back to pass 65 times on Sunday, he will be sacked more than four times.
Oh, yeah. Roethlisberger is hurt. Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore did not practice. That means that Isaac Redman is going to be the lead back (possibly the only back). Still, I think the Steelers adjust enough on offense and Redman will play well enough behind a spotty offensive line, that this game will not be an embarrassing blowout. Tennessee has a pretty good defense, but they're not as good as Baltimore or Houston, so the Steelers should be able to score some points.
But, the only way they can score enough points to win is if they stop Chris Johnson. In previous seasons, they may have stopped Johnson by sound gap discipline, winning battles at the point of attack, and taking away cutback lanes with back side pursuit. This season, they don't seem to be able to do that. If Johnson sees the kinds of huge holes and wide open cutback lanes that Foster saw last week, he is going to destroy the Steelers defense. EHHB will pick up whatever points and yardage are left over.
The other way to stop Johnson is to keep the ball the hell away from him so that he doesn't get to touch it. The best way to do that is by running the ball effectively and holding a hefty advantage in time of possession. That will keep the ball away from Johnson, it will keep the old, tired defense off the field, and it will also keep Roethlisberger from dropping back 65 times, which would probably result in his death (or at least maiming).
In order to keep the Titans from crushing an already ailing Roethlisberger, Bruce Arians should call more short passes. It seems like Mike Wallace gains an average of 15 yards on every one of those hitch screens they throw him, so how about throwing more than one of those a game? How about throwing two to Wallace, one to Emmanuel Sanders and maybe a bubble screen or two to Antonio Brown just to mix things up?
What I'm proposing is not a radical concept, but talking about it and doing it are two different things entirely. The Steelers were able to successfully implement this strategy in Week 2 against the Seahawks, but Seattle is nowhere near as good a team as the Titans. They're too strong and too talented for the Steelers to be able to lean on them until they fall over. But, the only other option is to keep trying to score by throwing the ball and keep giving the ball back to Johnson. That strategy has a higher probability of failure.
The only upside is that they're at home and they've got the "us against the world" mentality going for them, which is almost as effective a motivator as Mike Tomlin. We'll see if the home crowd and a psychological edge are enough to overcome the physical and talent mismatches.
I doubt they do.
Prediction:
Titans 21, Steelers 13
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