The Myth of NFL Parity

Well, the Super Bowl is almost here, which means that it's time for people to start talking about parity in the NFL and how teams can quickly turn their fortunes around, because of the structure of the salary cap and free agency.

Pundits will point out that, as recently as 2010, the Broncos were 4-12. As recently as 2011, they employed Tim Tebow. They'll mention that Seattle had back-to-back 7-9 seasons in 2010 and 2011. Both teams made the playoffs last season, so it's not a classic "worst to first" story for either of them, but it's quite a change in fortunes from just two seasons ago.

But, I don't think that captures the whole truth. I think the NFL has a great deal more parity than the NBA -- another league with a salary cap and free agency structure -- where the Heat, Celtics, Lakers, and Spurs have won almost every championship since 1998. The NHL has been through so many transitions since the turn of the century that it's really tough to try to compare apples to apples -- there are just too many variables.

That leaves Major League Baseball, home of no salary cap and the haves/have nots club (Yankees, Cardinals, Red Sox, Dodgers, possibly Giants and Angels). Since really only the Yankees, Red Sox, and Cardinals have a shot to win it every year, baseball should take a long look at what the NFL is doing and try to parity themselves up... right? Given, the title of this post, I think you can safely assume the answer to that is wrong.

First of all, there's the stat that everyone seems to be mentioning, but glossing over: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, or Ben Roethlisberger have started at quarterback for the AFC representative in 11 of the last 13 Super Bowls. That basically means that the other 13 teams in the conference had no chance if they didn't have themselves a franchise quarterback. Add in the fact that the hated Ravens were the AFC representative in 2000 and 2012, and Rich Gannon's Oakland Raiders are the only real outlier.

Since 2000, nine different teams have won the Super Bowl, with four teams winning multiple titles (Patroits, Steelers, Giants, hated Ravens).

Since 2000, nine different teams have won the World Series, with four teams winning multiple titles (Cardinals, Yankees, Giants, and Red Sox).

Seems pretty balanced, even though baseball doesn't have all the parity enforcing rules in place that football does. Add to the fact that the playoff field for baseball is 8 teams a year (or had been until last season), while football admits 12 teams to the postseason, and it's pretty remarkable that the scales are that balanced. Then, think about the fact that NFL playoff games are single elimination and MLB playoffs are five and seven game series. In a long enough series, the team that can buy the most talent should be able to outlast a less expensive, less talented team.

The balance is almost as good when you go back further, even though the Yankees won four titles between 1996 and 2000.

Since the baseball strike that canceled the 1994 World Series, ten different teams have won World Series, with five teams winning multiple titles (Marlins, Cardinals, Yankees, Giants, and Red Sox).

Since free agency started in 1994*, 12 different teams have won the Super Bowl, with six teams winning multiple titles (Broncos, Packers, Patriots, Steelers, Giants, hated Ravens).

*I know free agency officially started in 1993, but they really didn't work out the kinks until '94 or '95.

If you go all the way back to the beginning of the Super Bowl era, it gets even more interesting, even though you also had clear baseball dynasties in the 60s (Yankees again) and 70s (Reds, A's), though no team emerged in baseball the way the 49ers did in football (ten different teams won the World Series in the 80s, a different team in each year). 

Since 1966, 18 teams have combined to win all 48 Super Bowls. There are 14 teams that have not won the Super Bowl, and 4 teams have not been to the Big Game. 

In baseball, 20 teams have combined to win 48 World Series, only 7 teams have not won (half the NFL number), and three teams have not been to the World Series. Hey, even the Pirates logged a couple of wins.

The telling statistic in my mind is this: There are just as many "have" teams in the NFL as there are in baseball. In 48 Super Bowls, there have been 96 participants. There are 13 teams that have appeared in 4 or more Super Bowls (Steelers 8, Cowboys 8, Patriots 7, Broncos 7, Niners 6, Phins 5, Raiders 5, Redskins 5, Packers 5, Giants 5, Vikings 4, Colts 4). Those 13 teams account for 73 of the 96 total appearances. Even if you just take the Top 6 -- like I had my Top 6 for baseball up above -- that's 41 of 96 appearances accounted for by only six teams.

So, the parity in both sports is more like the parity in Men's NCAA basketball: There a lot of different teams that qualify for the postseason, but only a handful of teams have a real shot at the title. Every now and again, there's an upset, but it's usually Duke, Kansas, UNC, Louisville, Kentucky, UConn, and Arizona (maybe Syracuse in recent years) that comes away with the big prize.

At this point in the NFL, you can't win it all if you don't have a franchise quarterback (Joe Flacco is totally elite, you guys). Before the rule change in 2003 that opened up the passing game, back to about 1990, you needed a great defense to win championships. From the last big rule change in 1978 through 1990, you needed a franchise quarterback and talented receivers. Prior to that, defense won championships for the most part.

Dallas won with their Doomsday Defense in the late 60s and early 70s, then shifted to offense with Roger Staubach and Tony Dorsett when the rules opened up. The Steelers went through the same progression. You could make a strong argument that Terry Bradshaw was the third best quarterback on the team that won Super Bowl 9. He wasn't that much improved by Super Bowl 10, but he was starting to get on solid footing, then they rode his right arm to titles in Super Bowls 13 and 14. Don Shula went to four Super Bowls (6, 7, 8, 17) and won two with defense, then re-booted and went to the Big Game with Dan Marino and a record-setting offense in Super Bowl 19.

The Cowboys got back to defense and a solid running game, for the most part, in the 90s to give themselves another title run. The Patriots started out with a focus on defense, then changed as the rules and game changed in order to sustain success. 

But, the common thread across all eras seems to be quarterback play. John Elway played in a Super Bowl in 1987 and 1997 and 1998. Joe Montana and Steve Young were able to give the 49ers a nice, long run of success. Tom Brady has been to five Super Bowls (so has Elway). So, parity hasn't been able to level the playing field if a team happens to draft a once-in-a-generation guy. Think about the stat I referenced at the beginning: Three quarterbacks have dominated the AFC for the past 13 years, amid changes in playing styles and rules and schemes.

In baseball, a lot of it comes down to luck as well. The richer teams have just been more consistently successful because they have the money to hedge more bets -- and safer bets on more expensive players -- than other teams.

In football, the most consistently effective teams are able to set themselves up to take advantage of any lucky breaks that they get. The Steelers struck while the iron was hot in the 70s -- they had the best run of scouting and luck in history from 1970-1974 -- but struggled in the 80s because luck wasn't on their side. They re-tooled in the 90s and had some success because of their defense, but didn't really get another lucky hit until Roethlisberger in 2004. They were set up well at that point to succeed, they just needed the final piece.

Basically, success is based too much in luck, right place/right time, and positioning yourself well to take full advantage. 

To say that one sport has a model that can tame that beast is silly. That's why NFL parity is a myth.

It's a Mess: Steelers at Jets Preview

Before the season started, I had this game penciled in as a win.  The Jets were in shambles, they were starting a rookie at quarterback, Mark Sanchez was a huge distraction, and Rex Ryan looked like he was trying to get fired.  As things stand now, I have a feeling that the New York Jets are looking at the Steelers and thinking, "Man, that team has some serious issues."

The defense can't tackle or make any big plays, the offensive line is in disarray, they just traded for a left tackle that the Arizona Cardinals were willing to pay $3 million to get rid of, there's some kind of issue with ping pong that I don't quite understand, the offensive coordinator is a colossal douche, they're 0-4, and Ryan Clark and Ben Roethlisberger have a mini-feud going.  All that I honestly feel as though I'm forgetting something.

I had hoped that the bye week would give them a chance to sort a few things out and get a little bit more stable on all fronts, but the opposite seems to have happened.  They appear to have gone further off the rails and I'm not sure how much further they're going to get off course.  I would say that I don't think it's possible for things to get worse, but I thought that heading into the bye week... and they got worse.

I think that the defense will play better than they've shown the past two games.  I think that they'll eventually register a sack and force a turnover.  I think they won't give up a kajillion yards rushing and 34 points against New York.

I think that the offensive line will be in better shape with Mike Adams out of there and Kelvin Beacham  or Levi Brown in.  I think the receivers will continue to improve and mature and that the pass offense has the potential to be pretty explosive by the end of the season.

But, this is still a flawed team that has major talent holes at a number of positions.  Demoting Ziggy Hood and Mike Adams sends a message and their replacements will be better, but it's doubtful that they'll be considerably better, or at least good enough that right end and left tackle won't be areas of weakness. Getting Le'Veon Bell and Heath back will help boost the offense and give Ben Roethlisberger and Todd Haley more options.

The issue is that all of these things are like having a kid to save a bad marriage: The dynamic changes, but the old problems are still there.  In order to salvage the season and take big steps forward, they need to fundamentally change how they approach things.

They need to max protect more, take more shots down the field, and run more when they get into the red zone.  They need to blitz more, play more man coverage, and take more chances on defense.  They had been playing it safe thus far, only going all out -- at least on offense -- when they felt they had no other choice.  They assumed that they had the talent and football savvy to win enough games to at least be competitive, but they overestimated the talent on hand by a lot and weren't anywhere near as savvy as they thought.

They're a quarter of the way through the season and doing things the same way they've always done them isn't working.  They need to step outside their comfort zone, take some chances, and basically go big or go home.  I have no idea if they'll succeed or not if they take that chance, but they haven't won any games playing it safe, so it's worth a shot.

Sure, the Jets have a rookie quarterback, a ton of injuries on offense, and they traded their best defensive player in the offseason.  They're also 3-2, they're at home, they know who they are, and they know how to get where they want to go.  They may be a mess, but they're not as big a mess as the Steelers right now.

Prediction:
Jets 17, Steelers 16

Heisenberged: Bears at Steelers Preview

OK, here's the thing: I'm 95% sure I'm going to watch Breaking Bad at 9 p.m. on Sunday instead of watching the Steeler game.  I'll most likely record the game and watch that hour of it later -- with the bonus of avoiding the 15 or so commercial breaks that NBC is probably going to jam into the first half, while the game is still competitive -- but I think I've convinced myself that watching Breaking Bad is a better use of my time.  I know that I'm going to enjoy it, that I'm going to be entertained, and that, with all the updates and spoilers I'm going to see on the Internet, it makes more sense to watch it live rather than recording it and watching it later.  I don't want to slog through an hour, bored out of my mind, only watching because of a sense of obligation, because I've invested so much time already.  If I wanted to spend an hour that way, I'd just watch Dexter.

I'm being melodramatic and I'm exaggerating, but not by a whole lot.  I know that Breaking Bad will deliver the goods and I can't say the same about the Steelers.

After they opened the season 0-2, there was a quick flurry of, "They opened the season 0-2 in 2002 and won the division that year!" observations, but then everyone realized that this team is different than that 2002 team.  That team opened against the Patriots and the Raiders (remember that's the year the Raiders went to the Super Bowl, so this was before they sucked).  New England was defending its title.  That was a deeper Steeler team, a more talented team, and a squad that just happened to draw the two best teams in the AFC in their first two games.

The 2013 Steelers may actually be good, I'm still not sure, but they certainly have a confidence problem.  The offensive line lacks confidence -- they're not sure how good they are, there's real anxiety about everyone getting hurt, and they haven't been together long enough to be confident in each other.  Solid offensive line play is equal parts talent, rote, and determination.  There's plenty of athletic talent on this line, but they haven't played and practiced together much, so the familiarity isn't there.  Determination is having the confidence to try to do something and the tenacity to see it through.  If they don't have confidence, they can't see it through.  That's where it all starts and it trickles down from there.

The coaches don't think the line can pass protect for more than a couple of seconds, so they're calling safer, shorter plays.  I'm not a huge fan of Todd Haley, but I don't think you can pin this on him.  If he calls too many aggressive pass plays that call for long dropbacks, he exposes Ben Roethlisberger to injury.  If Roethlisberger gets hurt, then the season is sunk for sure.  Haley doesn't have Mike Wallace to take the top off the defense.  He doesn't have a back that he trusts to hold onto the ball.  They don't have any explosive players and they're not making any explosive plays.  If they start to trust the offensive line, if they start to make some big plays, they'll gain some confidence.  Confidence is contagious. The trouble is that I don't see enough guys on this roster to foster that kind of confidence and make those kinds of plays.  I don't think that getting Heath Miller and Le'Veon Bell fixes that.  I think they just need to take baby steps until they can walk.  That might not happen this season.

The defensive is playing it safe and there are two explosive playmakers on that side of the ball: Troy Polamalu and Jarvis Jones.  Jones is going to be an amazing player, but he's still young and raw.  Troy, as much as I love him and think he's a great player, will get hurt by Week 6.  If he doesn't get hurt and Jones makes serious strides, then they've got a little bit of something going on defense.  But, they still don't have enough.  They need to start piling up sacks and forcing turnovers, making big plays on defense.  Right now, they're playing it safe.  They're playing not to lose.  Again, this isn't something I blame the coordinator for, as if I could ever say anything bad about Dick LeBeau.  These are just the circumstances they're operating under with the players they have, at the development levels they have them.

These guys will get better, they will gain confidence, they will come together, they will make plays.  I just think the 2013 version of this team is a lot like the 2003 version of this team.  Both seasons had similar vibes to them.  Both teams had issues on the offensive line (remember that Alan Faneca played left tackle for a few games).  They needed to develop and gain confidence.

Bad news: That 2003 team finished 6-10.  Good news: With basically the same personnel (plus a rookie phenom named Ben Roethlisberger), they went 15-1 in 2004.

Now, for the bad news for Sunday: The Bears are already a developed team that is playing as well as they can play.  They're 2-0 and looking to build on recent successes.  The Steelers are 0-2 and looking to avoid recent failures.

I hope the Steelers are going to be in the lead (or at least keeping the game competitive) when I switch over from Breaking Bad at 10 p.m. on Sunday, but I doubt it.

Prediction:
Bears 24, Steelers 13

Remember the Titans... Suck: Titans at Steelers Preview

Holy crap.  There hasn't been a post on the ol' SteelersNAt blog since August 15th.  I would've thought August 26th, but what do I know.

Looks like football season is upon us and the Steelers host the Tennessee Titans on Sunday at 1 p.m. at Heinz Field.

I mentioned during the preseason that I didn't have high hopes for the Steelers this season; I just don't want them to be boring like they were last season.  They finished 8-8, which is kind of like kissing your sister. But, the average score in those games was 21-19 and there were a number of turnover-riddled snoozefests that ended 16-14 or 13-10 or 20-14.  So, last year was kind of like watching your sister kiss all your uncles on the cheek.  Which... I guess means I'd like to watch my sister make out with random dudes this season.  And that doesn't make any sense.

What I'd like to see is exciting games with big plays -- even if it means poor tackling and poor coverage -- and a finish within one game of 8-8 (7-9, 8-8, or 9-7, doesn't really matter).  I think that Sunday's game has a high potential to kick off the season right, with lots of scoring, defensive breakdowns, offensive breakdowns, and crazy plays.

Consider:

1. Chris Johnson can break a big play at any time.
2. Kenny Britt had his first big game against the Steelers and Nate Washington has big play potential (or at least he did at one point and maybe he's still mad that he doesn't play for Pittsburgh anymore).
3. The Titans defense is young and opportunistic.  Better yet, they're young, inexperienced, and undisciplined, so maybe the cornerbacks will jump routes and miss, allowing a big play on the back end.  Maybe they'll jump routes and hit, making a big play.
4. Ben Roethlisberger is quirky and unpredictable.  If they start to struggle running the ball early on -- and they probably will -- then Roethlisberger might decide to let it rip.
5. This year's defense can't possibly be worse at forcing turnovers than last year's... can it?

On the other side of all this is the fact that neither team's offensive line looks like it's all the way together yet. That's a wild card in that it could lead to a lot of big plays -- strip-sacks and whatnot -- or it could lead to a lot of futility and three-and-outs.

The good news is that Tennessee doesn't have a very good team and they're in Year Two of a pretty painful four year rebuilding process.  They may be competitive and dangerous eventually, but not now.  Their front seven has been repeatedly gutted by free agency and Bernard Pollard might be their best player in the secondary.  On offense, Jake Locker is a great athlete, but he's a terrible quarterback.  The Steelers tend to feast on terrible quarterbacks.  Despite the nice things I said about Britt and Washington, those guys are a couple of oft-injured, wildly inconsistent "upside guys" that keep getting chances because someone is dumb enough to believe that they'll put it all together eventually if they just get enough chances.

Chris Johnson is the guy to fear, even if he's been underwhelming the past two or three seasons.  He's still explosive, still super fast, and can still break off a long touchdown at any moment.  The Titans are going to feed him the ball because they have no other real option.  If he gets enough chances, he'll break a big gain eventually.  The Steelers just need to stay focused, maintain their lanes on defense, and practice sound tackling fundamentals.

The Steelers are an average team, but the Titans are a bad team.  The fact that Roethlisberger is one of the seven or eight best quarterbacks in the league lifts the Steelers from being below average to just average.  If they can't beat Tennessee, then they are a bad team (I don't care if the Titans finish with a winning record, bad teams can get lucky as these same Titans did in 2011).

In order to not embarrass themselves, the Steelers need to win this game.  If they can get off to a winning start, they'll enter next week with more confidence -- and they'll need all the help they can get against the Bengals.  If they lose this week, they could very well open up the season 0-3.  If they split their non-division conference games (home against the Titans, at Miami), go 3-1 against the atrocious AFC East (yes, this means they're going to lose at home to the Patriots; I've accepted it, the sooner you do the better for your sanity), split their division games, and split with their non-conference games (a pretty up-in-the-air NFC North), then they're looking at a 9-7 season.  

Maybe they catch some breaks, beat the Dolphins and go 4-2 in the division, that puts them at 11-5.

The X-Factor this season is the guys they've drafted since 2010.  There are only four guys on the roster from  the 2006-2009 draft classes -- Woodley, Timmons, Ziggy Hood, and David Johnson.  There are five players still on the roster from the 2002-2005 draft classes -- Ben, Troy, Keisel, Ike Taylor, and Heath.  With no young veterans stepping up -- and the guys from those 2006-2009 classes should all be playing vital roles on the team, making up the core group of talented skill position players -- they have a bunch of old guys that need to keep playing at a high level and really young guys that need to grow up in a hurry.  Assuming that the old guard doesn't fall apart this season -- and, aside from Troy missing at least 5-6 games every season with various injuries, it doesn't look like they will fall apart -- then it's up to the 2010-Present draft classes to make up that talent gap and deliver.

If they can deliver in a big way, then you're looking at a 12-4 or 13-3 season.  I don't think they're all going to deliver in a big way.  I think some of them will make a big leap forward, some of them will be average, and some of them will fall off.  When that happens, you're looking at 8-8 or 7-9 or 9-7.  If injuries keep mounting and the depth of this team is really tested, then it's a 6-10 or 5-11 situation, but I don't think that's going to happen.

They're an average team and they're going to finish with an average record.  They'll do slightly better or worse depending on luck.  I've seen so many successful seasons in the last decade or so that I really don't care how well (or not) they do during the regular season. I believe that there's a big enough talent gap between them and the favorites from the AFC that I know they won't advance to (and win) the Super Bowl. If they're not going to win the Super Bowl and are probably going to be average, I just don't want to be bored when it's happening.

It all starts on Sunday against the Tennessee Titans and, the good lord willing, it will be exciting.

Preseason Watchlist: Steelers vs. Giants

I have to say that the preseason snuck up on me this year.  I could've sworn that the draft just happened, then suddenly I turn around and Training Camp is opening.

Here's what I'm going to be watching for tonight, since it doesn't make sense to put much stock in who wins and loses.  It's only the preseason, but there are some interesting things to watch.

Zone Blocking Scheme:

They're implementing a new blocking scheme this year and it's a zone blocking scheme instead of the traditional "everyone has a guy they're assigned to block" scheme that they've used since The Chief bought the team.

It's a change in strategy, but the word on the street is that it's not Todd Haley's idea/fault.  The Steelers wanted to move to this kind of blocking scheme since 2011, but they didn't have the athletes at tackle to pull it off.

This is just for the running game, not the passing game.  The idea is that, unlike a man blocking scheme, where you "put a hat on a hat" and everyone blocks their assigned guy, each lineman is responsible for a zone and needs to block anyone that is in that zone/comes into that zone.  The tackles push to the sidelines and interior linemen push towards the middle of the field.  In theory, that creates seams and cut-back lanes in the defense that the running backs will then be able to run through.

Honestly, I don't think we have the athletes at running back to pull this off, but I am willing to try anything that will improve the running game. In this blocking scheme, the running back needs to have great short area quickness to burst through the seams and cut-back lanes, excellent vision to see those openings develop, and good decision-making ability (or at least the ability to make quick decisions and commit to them) so that he hits the hole before it closes.  No one on the roster in 2012 fits that bill, with the possible exception of Rashard Mendenhall.  He might have been a good fit, but he's now in Arizona.  Word is that Le'Veon Bell has the right kind of skillset to run behind this scheme and be successful, so that's another thing to watch.

The Rookies:

Really, there are two rookie classes to evaluate in this game, since DeCastro and Adams were hurt most of last season, third round pick Sean Spence missed all of last season on injured reserve, and Alameda Ta'amu went on a drunken rampage through South Side, which hurt his chances to crack the line-up.

Adams and DeCastro will be in starting roles and it'll be nice to see them in action, along with the fact that they'll be working in the new zone blocking scheme.  Spence and Ta'amu will be playing more, because they're lower on the depth chart, but they're both playing positions -- Spence at inside linebacker and Ta'amu at defensive tackle -- where there isn't an entrenched, established guy.  If they play well, they could unseat the guy in front of them on the depth chart, which is always interesting to watch.

I mentioned Bell, who has apparently had a great camp.  Jarvis Jones has also done extremely well by all accounts and I'm most excited to see him play.  I really need to see him step into the void that James Harrison left behind, especially since I don't trust Jason Worilds any farther than I can throw him.

Since all the cornerbacks on the roster are working through some type of injury, Shamarko Thomas will be playing nickel back with the first team defense tonight.  I'm really looking forward to seeing him play.  His natural position is safety, but if he can also help out as a nickel cornerback, then that's another thing he can do to help this team.  Ryan Clark and Troy aren't getting any younger, Ryan Mundy will be on the other team's sideline, and it would be super nice if this kid stepped up and started playing well from the get-go.

Rookie receivers Justin Brown and Markus Wheaton should get a lot of work, since there are now open spots at 4th and 5th receiver after the Plaxico Burress injury.  There are actually a lot of warm bodies at the position -- there are 11 guys in total, counting Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Jerricho Cotchery, and Plax, who probably won't have to fight for their roster spots -- and I'm hoping that this fosters competition for remaining roster spots.  The more tough decisions these young guys can make the coaches make, the better the depth at the position.

Explosive Plays:

The Steelers were a really, really boring team last year.  They didn't generate a lot of explosive plays on offense and they played things ultra-conservative on defense.  Dick LeBeau knew that he didn't have the personnel to take a lot of chances and try to make a lot of splash plays, so he tried to teach the guys on defense to keep everything in front of them and not be a hero.  The result was that they didn't allow a lot of 20+, 30+, or 40+ yard plays, but they also didn't record a lot of sacks or force very many turnovers.

On offense, they were hesitant to stretch the field and go for the big play and their running backs were mostly "two yards and a cloud of dust" guys that didn't get yards in chunks.

You ended up with an 8-8 team that played vanilla games that didn't feature many big plays on offense or defense, not a lot of sacks or turnovers, and a lot of low-scoring slugfests.  The 2009 Steelers finished 8-8, but at least they were exciting.  They forced turnovers like crazy, turned the ball over like crazy, and big plays were all over the place.  Another team like that may kill me, but it's a chance I'm wiling to take.

At this point, I suspect that the 2013 Steelers will finish anywhere from 6-10 to 8-8 and I'm prepared for that.  I just don't want it to be boring.

What I'm looking for tonight is whether or not the young kids have the swagger and the skill to go out and try and make something happen.  They may let up some big plays, they may make some big plays, but in the end what I'm looking for is something interesting and exciting.  With the number of players that are going to either retire or get cut in the next couple of seasons, I want to see what this next generation is made of.

No Injuries:

Just wanted to make sure I said it.  As long as we make it through tonight without anyone getting seriously hurt, that's a net win.

Better Than Buccos: Browns at Steelers Preview

Here we are.  The Steelers have been eliminated from playoff consideration and the best that they can hope for is to finish at .500.  If they manage to accomplish that objective, they will have had a better season than the Pirates, though it's fair to argue which team had the more epic collapse in 2012.  It's been a long, frustrating season from start to finish, but there have been plenty of highs to go along with the lows.

I think the Browns are improving and I think that they have a bright future now that Mike Holmgren isn't in charge of personnel decisions and Pat Schurmur will most likely not be in charge of anything in the very near future (like Monday).

I think Brandon Weeden is going to be a good quarterback well into his mid-30s, which means that they'll have a solid five years of good quarterback play in Cleveland.  Trent Richardson is the second coming of Jamaal Lewis and I'm not looking forward to that guy running roughshod over Steeler defenders for the next decade or so.

Joe Hayden leads a talented, ball-hawking secondary and the front seven has shown improvement over the course of the season, though that's definitely the team's weakness.  Well, that and the offensive line.  And they're pretty thin at receiver and tight end. 

OK, they have some work to do, but I think the Browns and Bengals are trending up and the Steelers and hated Ravens are trending down.  Cincinnati took a huge step forward in Week 16 and, according to my Pick Em picks, I think they'll take another big step forward by beating Baltimore this week.

My point is not that the Browns are awesome and that the Steelers suck.  My point is that these are two teams headed in different directions that happen to both be eliminated from post season contention.

But, at least as far as Sunday is concerned, the Browns are still the Browns and the Steelers are still the Steelers.  Mike Wallace and Heath Miller won't be available, but I don't think that will make a huge difference.  The Steelers are going to do what they do on offense and Cleveland will try to stop them.  Given that I don't think the Browns are going to force eight turnovers on Sunday, I don't think they'll be able to make enough stops to win this game.  Weeden and Richardson have both been declared out and so has Colt McCoy.  That means that something called a Thad Lewis is starting at quarterback and a Montario Hardesty (charter member of the Wasted Fantasy Football Pick-up Hall of Fame) will be starting at tailback.

At some point, probably after their fifth consecutive three-and-out, the Browns will realize that there's not that much difference between 5-11 and 6-10 and just lay down.  They've done that the past few times they've played the Steelers in the last game of the season and they'll do it again.  Because the Browns are still the Browns and the Steelers are still the Steelers.

Next season, who knows?  Cleveland could be fighting for a playoff spot and the Steelers could be 5-10.

This season, the Brownies have Thad Lewis, a lame duck head coach, and some dude named Montario starting at running back.  The Steelers still have a core group of guys -- the old guard of Keisel, Ryan Clark, Max Starks, Troy Polamalu, Casey Hampton, Larry Foote, Ben Roethlisberger, and even guys on IR like Ike Taylor and Heath -- that will want to finish the season strong and will do whatever it takes to make sure Week 17 isn't yet another losing effort.

Sure, the Steelers went on the road earlier this season and won a game against a division rival with their third string quarterback and a back-up starting at running back.  But, they also still had something to play for and those guys were Charlie Batch and Jonathan Dwyer, not Thad Lewis and Montario Hardesty.  Not that I think Batch and Dwyer are all-stars, but they've certainly shown enough throughout the season to suggest they're better than Lewis and Hardesty.

Then there's the fact that a big win on Sunday can fool us into believing the Steelers will come back strong next season, carrying momentum through offseason activities and training camp.  And the fact that a dismantling of the Browns would show, in some small way, that this team had real potential to be a dominant squad, they just frittered that potential away through injuries and inconsistent play.

I'm not looking at match-ups as much as I'm looking at history, emotion, and mental fortitude.  For those reasons, I think the Steelers will roll (which means that the Browns will win).

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Browns 6

Season on the Brink: Bengals at Steelers Preview

Well, the bad news is that the game against the Cowboys sucked.  The good news is that the Steelers are officially in playoff mode and it's win-or-go-home time.  They seem to do better in situations like this, unless of course they're up against Tim Tebow.

This is definitely a winnable game and that's not a dig on the Bengals.  The losses to the Titans, Raiders, and Browns weren't cases of the Steelers losing a winnable game, they were cases of them honking away a sure win.  Yes, things change when the game actually kicks off and you commit eight turnovers, but the fact remains that they had match-up advantages pretty much everywhere on both sides of the ball in those games and failed to capitalize on those advantages.

On Sunday, they don't have a ton of match-ups in their favor, but they have enough.  Cincinnati doesn't have anyone that can cover Heath Miller.  Dallas had a tough time dealing with Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown -- provided they held onto the ball -- and the Cowboys have a more talented secondary than the Bengals.  Emmanuel Sanders will be back this week and will be at full strength.  The only guys that won't play are Ike Taylor and Mike Adams, so they're healthier than they've been at any point in the season and certainly in better shape health-wise than they were for the first meeting in Cincy.  Ben Roethlisberger is a better quarterback than Andy Dalton and Dalton has struggled pretty mightily against this Steelers defense thus far in his career.  BenJarvis Green-Ellis hasn't been able to get much going this season, the Bengals offensive line has been far better in pass protection than they have in the running game, and the Steelers held the Law Firm to only 69 yards in the first meeting.

I'm aware of the fact that Cincinnati has Geno Atkins and he's a very good, very disruptive player on the interior of the defensive line.  But, Legursky and Ramon Foster were able to contain Atkins in the first game, to the tune of two tackles and a sack, which makes me think that Pouncey and DeCastro might actually fare better.  DeCastro looked a little rough at times in his first start, but he was coming off three months of inactivity and only had three practices to get used to the line calls and the tendencies of his line mates.  I think he'll be better this week and Pouncey usually steps up his level of play for big games (unless it's an actual playoff game, in which case he's usually hurt).

With all the talk about Atkins, I think people are forgetting that the Bengals have a really talented, solid front seven.  They lead the league with 43 sacks.  They pressure quarterbacks into making bad decisions and they're plus 3 in the turnover department (Steelers are minus 14).  But... they have the same personnel that they had when the Steelers plowed them over for 167 yards in Week 7 and the offensive line for Pittsburgh has benefited from a couple of upgrades since then.  Jonathan Dwyer ran for 122 yards on only 17 carries in that game.  The Steelers outgained the Bengals 431-185 in that game and really dominated throughout.  They just lost the field position battle and turned the ball over in the red zone.

If they can keep from committing a costly turnover -- especially a pick six, which is no sure thing with this team -- they should be able to win fairly easily.

One thing really scares the hell out of me in this game and his name is AJ Green.  Without Taylor to keep Green in check, you have either Keenan Ivory Lewis or Cortez Allen or... #35, whatever his name is, it doesn't really matter because he's awful.  (I know it's Josh Victorian, but that still doesn't matter because he's awful.)  If Green's able to roam free, then he'll do more damage than Miles Austin and Dez Bryant put together.  My guess is that they double him with Lewis and Ryan Grant and err on the side of not getting beat deep, but Green's good enough at adjusting to the ball when it's in the air that he's still open even if he's double covered.

I think that Green still runs wild, but it's kept within reason.

That's all the X's and O's and strategy, but here's the big reason I think they win on Sunday: If they lose Sunday, their season is over.  This team has been maddeningly inconsistent all year, but they've always been able to find just the right time and way to break the hearts of Steelers fans all over the world. 

This Sunday isn't the right time.  If they lose Sunday, they're done, Steeler fans have no hope for the next week.  Their hearts will be broken, sure, but their team will have lost to an up-and-coming team and, hey, the Bengals deserve a break every now and again.

Next Sunday is the right time, because they're playing Cleveland and there's every reason to believe that they absolutely should win that game and make it to the playoffs.  To lose out on a post-season berth by getting beat at home by the lowly, stupid Cleveland Browns is considerably more heartbreaking. 

The only thing that this team has consistently done all season is break our hearts and drive us crazy.  That will continue on Sunday against the Bengals.

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Bengals 23

Glory Hole Days: Steelers at Cowboys Preview

I've been waiting to preview this game all season, because I wanted to link to this video where Jerry Jones says that he wants the Cowboys to get back to the "glory hole days."

That's as stupid as it is funny, and it's about as stable as my prediction for this week.

Honestly, I have no idea.  The Steelers are a talented team, but they're also banged up, deeply flawed, and very inconsistent.  The Cowboys are a talented team, but they're also banged up, deeply flawed, and very inconsistent. 

Dallas has home field advantage, but it was the Cowboys-Steelers game in 2004 that first got announcers and reporters talking about how well Pittsburgh travels.  There were about 20,000 Steelers fans at that game and it got the nation's attention.  The Steelers won that game and also beat the Romo-led Cowboys at Heinz Field in 2008.  But, Dallas also hosted Super Bowl XLV and that didn't work out so well for the Steelers.

I know Ben Roethlisberger looked awfully rusty -- almost like a guy who hadn't played in a month or something -- but I also know that he's better than he showed against the Chargers and should play better against a Dallas secondary that has some injury issues.

I don't know what's wrong with Mike Wallace, but I know that he's an extremely talented player that can break a game wide open (like he did against the Giants).  Whether or not he gets his head straight this week, I have no idea.

I know Keenan Ivory Lewis and Cortez Allen looked pretty lost starting their first game together, but Dick LeBeau was probably pretty lost without Ike Taylor.  Ike's been in every game since 2004 and that had to be an adjustment for LeBeau.  And for the rest of the secondary, kind of like when Ryan Clark missed those two games against the Broncos.

Mike Tomlin has coached through this season like he forgot to take his Adderall, but it's not like he's suddenly forgotten everything that has made him successful.  He's got a strong, veteran roster that doesn't seem to care too much what Rashard Mendenhall does or doesn't do/Tweet.  I don't think there's as much discord in the locker room as we've been led to believe.

Looking at the match-ups on the offensive line, it's crazy to think that a team that got shredded by San Diego's front four last week could hold up against the likes of DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer.  But it also would've been crazy to assume they could hold up against Terrell Suggs and Jarrett Johnson, yet they did just that in the two games against the hated Ravens.

Sure, they looked like total crap against the Chargers and probably deserved to lose by more than they did.  They also looked like total crap against the Browns, then went on the road and beat Baltimore with their third string quarterback.  Since everyone's down on them this week, they probably have the "no one outside this locker room believed we could do it" mentality, even though the current Vegas line has them favored by a point.

So...

I DON'T THINK YOU CAN DO IT, STEELERS.  JUST TRY TO PROVE ME WRONG.

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Cowboys 23

My Prediction... Pain: Steelers at Hated Ravens Preview

I have a feeling that this game is going to suck.  A lot.  Like, suck more than the last two games, if that's even possible.  In the Sunday night game two weeks ago, I at least saw a silver lining, a way that the Steelers might be able to pull it off.  By the time kickoff rolled around, I actually thought they had a good shot at winning.  This week?  Not so much.

First and foremost, Unibrow is significantly better at home than he is on the road.  One of the reasons I thought the Steelers might be able to beat the hated Ravens in Week 11 was that he loses about 40 quarterback rating points when he's not in Baltimore.  He didn't play very well at Heinz Field, but now he gains those 40 points this week.  Torrey Smith was shut down by Ike Taylor in the last game and Ray Rice was kept pretty much in check.  The only way this game stays close is if that happens again. Flacco will be able to spread the ball around to Dennis Pitta and Anquan Boldin and will be more effective even if Smith and Rice don't blow up, but we're looking at shades of the 2011 opener if they do.

Then you have the fact that the offense probably won't be able to get going with Charlie Batch behind center.  I'm guessing he'll be on a short leash, but Brian Hoyer and Byron Leftwich aren't exactly attractive alternatives.  Baltimore's defense has been surprisingly soft against the run this season, but they were able to hold Jonathan Dwyer and Rashard Mendenhall to 88 yards on 23 attempts.  The Steelers had 134 yards total, but 31 of that came on Leftwich's touchdown run, which skews the average. 

In order to have a shot at winning this game, they need to keep it low scoring and ugly like the last game.  In order to do that, they need to run the ball effectively and take some of the pressure off Batch.  Unfortunately, Batch doesn't scare anyone, especially the hated Ravens.  They'll stack 15 guys in the box and make Batch beat them.  I don't think there's a lot of people that believe he can beat them, possibly not even Batch himself.

While the logical center of my brain knows that there's a very low statistical probability of them committing eight turnovers again, I can't convince the rest of my brain that it's most likely not going to happen.  I can seriously see six or seven turnovers, even if they don't get to eight.  If they lose the turnover battle in a big way, they're going to lose big.

There are a lot of factors that point to this game ending in a blowout and some serious tears, but I don't think it's going to be that lopsided.  Yes, Charlie Batch is a shadow of his former self and yes, the hated Ravens still have a lot of talent on defense.  Yes, Flacco is lights out at home, but he's also struggled against the Steelers throughout his career, regardless of where the game's being played.  They don't have Ben Roethisberger -- finally, officially ruled out today -- or LaMarr Woodley, but they get Antonio Brown back and Troy Polamalu is apparently going to play a significant role on defense. 

With Brown back, that takes the defensive focus away from Mike Wallace and allows Heath and Emmanuel Sanders more room to roam.  Sure, Batch is still throwing them the ball, but putting Brown back in the mix makes this a better offense.  Batch has a faster delivery than Leftwich, so that means they can mix in some quick screens and make Baltimore think twice about loading up the line of scrimmage and leaving Wallace, Sanders, and Brown free to roam after the catch.  One missed tackle could mean a huge play.

If they get something out of the passing game, that opens things up for the running game, they don't turn the ball over, and Troy does something spectacular on defense, then maybe there's a chance for victory.  But... I highly doubt that all those things happen on Sunday.

They'll accomplish enough of those objectives to keep the game from being a laugher, but I think they ultimately fall short.

Prediction:
Hated Ravens 23, Steelers 13

Hate to Do This: Hated Ravens at Steelers Preview

I hate the hated Ravens so much that I refer to them as "the hated Ravens."  I still hate Brian Billick and he hasn't coached for the team in like five years.  I hate Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and even Elvis Grbac (mostly because of the weird name, but he did play for Baltimore for a season).  I hate the hated Ravens so much that they almost made me hate Rod Woodson.

But, there's one thing that I hate more than the hated Ravens: Jay Cutler's face.  Maybe there's two things.  Jay Cutler's face and picking the hated Ravens to beat the Steelers.  I already went on record picking them in this week's Pick Em, but I wanted to go on record here and explain how much picking Baltimore to win Sunday night sucked.

I think the hated Ravens are going to win and I hate saying that.

Now I'm going to talk about what the Steelers need to do to win.  It's not as impossible as it might seem.

Consider the following:

1. The Steelers are 4-0 at home (sure, they haven't beaten any good teams there yet, but they're undefeated.)
2. Baltimore is 2-2 on the road and their two road wins are against the Chiefs (with a Orioles-Royals score of 9-6) and the Browns (25-15).
3. The Unibrow sucks on the road this season.  Home numbers: 113-173-1612-10-3-108.3.  Road numbers: 71-136-719-3-4-62.7.  He gains 45 quarterback rating points and four yards per attempt at home.  Or, more importantly, he loses four yards an attempt and 45 rating points on the road.
4. For the first time in recent memory, the hated Ravens aren't defending the run well.  They rank 26th in the league in yards allowed, giving up 132 rushing yards a game.
5. In four home games, the Steelers have given up an average of 12.3 points per game.

Those are all good trends, because the Steelers need to do the following things to win the game:

1. Avoid getting off to a slow start.
2. Not turn the ball over.
3. Make it a low scoring game.
4. Run the ball effectively and frequently.

Trouble is, I think they'll only be able to accomplish #2.  They've done an exceptional job taking care of the ball thus far this season and I think that they'll err on the side of caution on offense -- no high risk pass plays, running backs keep both hands on the ball.  But, that's only one of the four things they need to do to win.

I think they'll get off to a slow start.  The hated Ravens know the Steelers almost as well as they know themselves.  They know that this team can't come back from a big deficit without Ben Roethlisberger.  Baltimore's primary objective will be to get off to a fast start and get the Steelers off balance as quickly as possible.

Byron Leftwich won't be as bad as he was against the Chiefs.  He'll have a full week of practice under his belt for this game and Todd Haley will put together a game plan that works with Leftwich's strengths.  There has been a lot of chatter about the fact that Leftwich is a bad fit for Haley's offense.  But, the fact of the matter is that Haley designed this year's offense -- and last week's game plan -- around Ben Roethlisberger and the other personnel the Steelers have on the roster.  When they hired him as offensive coordinator, I wrote about the fact that he's a personnel guy, not a system guy.  When he had Kurt Warner and a bunch of great receivers in Arizona, he called a lot of passes.  When he had Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones in Kansas City, he called a lot of runs.  When he realized that the Steelers had a bunch of explosive playmakers at receiver and an offensive line that had trouble protecting its quarterback, he called a lot of quick timing passes and screens.  When Roethlisberger Monday night's game, they already had the game plan installed and he couldn't start calling stuff that was completely different than what they had practiced all week.  On Sunday night, his game plan will be optimized to make the most of what Leftwich brings to the table.  The problem there is that it's not just Leftwich.

Antonio Brown will probably miss this game.  Rashard Mendenhall will probably start after a long layoff.  The offensive line still has pass protection issue.  There are a lot of moving parts that are either unavailable or rusty.  Couple that with the fact that Baltimore will want to do whatever they can to start fast and shut the Steelers down early and you can see how it's hard to imagine that they'll avoid getting off to slow start.

I think that they can keep the game low scoring even if they get off to a slow start, but I don't think that means they'll win.  If they fall behind 14-0 or 10-0, they'll eventually rally, but I think they'll fall short.

Running the ball effectively and frequently is the last thing on the list, but it's also the most important.  It affects whether or not they'll be able to accomplish #1 and #4.  If they start out running the ball well, that takes the early pressure off Leftwich.  If they keep running the ball well, that helps keep the ball away from Unibrow and the ever-deadly Ray Rice.  It also sets up the play action passing game, which will slow down the pass rush of the hated Ravens and make things easier on Leftwich.

But... the Ravens know all this, which is why they'll stack the box, look to stop the run at all costs, and force Leftwich to beat them.  They'll also bring a lot of extra defenders on the blitz when Haley does call a pass, knowing that they don't have the personnel to cover the Steelers receivers for more than three seconds. 

Most of the pressure will come up the middle, since Leftwich doesn't have the mobility to break outside the tackle box and extend the play like Roethlisberger does.  That's a problem because the interior linemen -- though they've done an exceptional job blowing up big holes between the tackles in the running game -- have had some serious issues in pass protection.

So... if the Steelers can run the ball well out of the gate and if they don't turn the ball over and if the hated Ravens defense doesn't embed Leftwich into the Heinz Field turf in the first half and if they can keep Ray Rice contained, they'll be able to win a close game. 

And, while I'm asking for stuff, I'd like a pony.

Prediction:
Hated Ravens 17, Steelers 10

Good News and Bad News: Chiefs at Steelers

At the end of regulation, Weidman turned to me and we had the following conversation.

Weidman: Here's what's going to happen: Chiefs win the toss, they elect to receive, then they finally play like the Chiefs and turn the ball over.  Suisham wins it with a field goal.

Me: Turnover could also be a pick six.  That also works.

Weidman: No.  Suisham needs to win it.  That's what needs to happen.

Me: OK, then.  That works, too.

The game played out exactly as Weidman had foreseen it.  That was the coolest thing that happened last night.

Sure, the Steelers won, which was cool.  But, it was cool like finding out that the girl you hooked up with at the bar last month isn't pregnant.  Or cool like discovering that the Check Engine light in your car came on because it had been more than six months since your last oil change.  It's more a feeling of relief than anything.

Good news first:

1. A win is a win.  Lest you forget, I am always here to point that fact out, especially after an especially ugly victory.
2. The Steelers committed fewer penalties and allowed fewer sacks than Kansas City.  I don't care if the Chiefs are 1-7, that's still something that's good to keep track of, especially this season.
3. Even though the defense didn't force turnovers in the quantities we expected, they got one when it really mattered.
4. You can talk all you want about how the defense choked and allowed a 4th and 15 conversion that led to Kansas City tying the game, but they also held Matt Cassel to a 46 quarterback rating and held Jamaal Charles in check in the second half.  The game could've gotten out of hand early in the first or midway through the third, but the defense didn't allow that to happen.
5. Lawrence Timmons is having himself one hell of a season.
6. Looks like Ben Roethlisberger isn't done for the season, which is kind of what I expected to hear this morning after watching his right arm dangle at his side as he left the field last night.

Bad News:

1. They didn't run the ball effectively.  That allowed the secondary to play tight on the Steelers receivers, which allowed the cornerbacks to fill in hard in run support, which led to even less effective running.  I think it was a combination of a strong effort by the Chiefs defensive line, a lackluster performance by the interior of the Steeler offensive line, and the fact that Mike Tomlin benched Isaac Redman after he fumbled in the first quarter.  Redman came back, but neither he nor Jonathan Dwyer was able to find a rhythm.  It was a little bit of all those factors, but deciding to take Redman out was the only thing that could really be controlled.  I think it held the running game back, but I might also just be mad because Redman's on my fantasy team and I needed another big game out of him.
2. Jon Gruden was droning on about the fact that the Chiefs were carving the left side of the Steeler defense up in the run game.  At least he was in the first half, when they were.  In the second half, when Ziggy Hood started staying in his lanes and engaging two blockers by shooting the gap like he's supposed to, Gruden didn't mention why they were no longer having success on that side.  Hood didn't suddenly forget what he was supposed to do, he's just inconsistent.  Gap discipline and tackling fundamentals had been two strong areas for the defense the last month.  In the first half, they weren't there, which is part of the reason Kansas City jumped to a 10-0 lead. Again, not taking anything away from the Chiefs offensive line, but that's part of the reason they were successful.
3. With five minutes remaining in the third quarter, Byron Leftwich decided he wanted to throw a pass.  He's still winding up.  Dear God, it takes forever for that man to throw a football.  With the way the protection has been against quality pass rushers, that's going to be an issue.  Oh, hey, look at that!  They play the hated Ravens next week.
4. They're going to have trouble throwing the ball and running the ball without Roethlisberger in the line-up, as evidenced by their production on offense in the second half.
5. One turnover forced in 4+ quarters, zero turnovers forced in regulation, against one of the most generous offenses in the history of the NFL.
6. Really, I could nit pick about a dozen or so different things, but the important thing is that the Chiefs managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and the Steelers got a win.

Roethlisberger hurt his shoulder and no one -- not even the doctors, because that's what tests and MRIs are for -- knows for sure how bad it is and how long he's going to be out.  It doesn't look like something that could land him on injured reserve, but it's definitely not a minor injury and could be a nagging issue (like Troy's calf this season and Woodley's hamstring last season).

As much as I like to kid Leftwich for taking 35 minutes to wind up and throw a pass and Charlie Batch for being 100 years old, they're not bad quarterbacks.  Earlier today, I was talking to a couple of guys I work with and I described Leftwich as "about average" and Batch as "not awesome."  What exactly that means is up for interpretation (hi there, Comments section!), but there's no getting around this fact: Neither of those guys is anywhere near as good as Ben Roethlisberger.

They'll be able to win some games with Leftwich or Batch under center -- they may, possibly, even be able to split with Baltimore -- but they're not winning the division with those guys and they're definitely not making a playoff run without Roethlisberger.

Basically, the really bad news is that we all just have to wait and see just how bad Ben's shoulder is hurt and how long it will take for him to come back.

It's Jamal the Rage: Chiefs at Steelers Preview

Here's the thing: The Steelers need to win this game and they absolutely should win this game.  I went with a horrible, pun-laden title for this post, because there's not a whole lot to say.

The Kansas City Chiefs are an awful, awful team.  We're eight games into the season and they haven't had a lead in regulation yet.  Both of their quarterbacks have been concussed at some point this year.  Jamaal Charles, who was supposed to be a superstar coming off an ACL injury, has been largely underwhelming.  Dwayne Bowe is in a contract year and he's projected to end up with 90 catches for a little over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns.  They just cut cornerback Stanford Routt after signing him to a long term deal in the offseason.  Opposing quarterbacks have a 106.3 passer rating against them.  They have a -20 turnover differential and a -107 point differential.

Meanwhile, the Steelers are certainly trending up.  The offensive line is coming together, the defense is playing tough and disciplined, and special teams is starting to turn the corner.

All this makes it look like Monday night's game is going to be a blowout.  While I hope that happens -- I could always go for a good blowout -- I have a sinking "Tyler Palko Game" feeling about this one.

The Steelers tend to play down to the level of competition.  Many of the guys on Kansas City's defense that were on the roster last year are on the roster this year.  The same defensive backs that were able to jam the Steelers receivers at the line of scrimmage, then turn and run with them down the field last season, are still on the roster.  Last season, the Steelers couldn't get anything going on the ground, then tried to pass their way out of it.  When that failed, they hung on for dear life and narrowly defeated a Chiefs team that started Tyler Palko at quarterback.

Despite all that, I still think the Steelers are going to roll on Monday.

1. They shouldn't struggle running the ball, which should give them balance on offense.  It will also give them the ability to neutralize Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, who are the only two guys they have to fear when Ben Roethlisberger drops back to pass.
2. Since Bruce Arians is not calling the plays, the "dink and dunk" passes that Todd Haley has been calling should make it tough for Kansas City to pressure Roethlisberger and help him get into a rhythm early.
3. Dwayne Bowe does not scare me and I think Ike Taylor matches up with him very well.  I don't think Bowe is going to win this game for the Chiefs.
4. Jamaal Charles is the wild card.  He could take over the game like he did in New Orleans earlier this season and pull Kansas City out of Suckville.  However, I don't see that happening.  He's not getting the ball as much as he used to and, even when he has gotten the ball, he hasn't done much with the opportunities.

Even if Charles does explode on Monday night, I think the Steelers will be able to score enough to offset that.  Actually, considering the fact that I'm starting Charles on two of my fantasy teams, him having a huge game wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.  Again, even if he does, I don't think the Chiefs have enough to win at Heinz Field.

They have too much to overcome.  Now, in last week's preview, I said that the Steelers had too much to overcome to beat the Giants (facing a really good team, on the road, emotional situation, they'd been under performing on the road), and the Steelers ended up winning.  This situation is different, though, because Kansas City would need to overcome the fact that they're just not very good.  That's too much for any team to overcome in a normal situation, nonetheless playing on the road against a team that's on a roll like the Steelers, who will be pumped up in prime time in front of a home crowd.

But... something like 150 yards and two touchdowns for Charles?  I think that would be just fine.

Prediction:

Steelers 34, Chiefs 17

We Shall Not Overcome: Steelers at Giants Preview

Ultimately, this game boils down to what Weidman said in NFL Pick Em this week:

"The simple fact is, no matter how good the Steelers looked last week, they've sucked on the road this year.  Furthermore, the Giants will be playing for their city this week in post-crisis time.   Finally, the Giants are really, really good."

If you want more words than that, I've included them below, but I think the Steelers have too much to overcome in this game to win it.

They need to overcome:

1. Injuries.  Mendenhall and Dwyer probably won't suit up, which means the back field will be Redman and Batch, which isn't good enough to beat a very talented Giants team.  They'll need to be able to run the ball and run it effectively to win and I don't think they'll be able to do that with the guys they have available.  Troy isn't playing, Gilbert will miss another game, Woodley and Ryan Clark are probable, but will probably be slowed down by their ailments.  Without Troy and Clark to cover the back end and with Woodley not 100% to help James Harrison get to Eli Manning, Victor Cruz and company might have a really big day (provided Ike Taylor doesn't have another huge game).
2. The Giants are playing for their city and their fans.
3. New York has a lot of players who are good at football.
4. With all the issues surrounding Hurricane Sandy and lodging, the Steelers are flying out for the game on Sunday morning.  Football players are very routine oriented and anything that messes with their routines messes with them.

They're also playing on the road, where they've sucked pretty bad this year (yeah, I know Weidman already mentioned that, but if you're here, you want more words.)

In order to overcome everything they're up against, they need at least two of these four things to happen:

1. Run the ball effectively.  Already mentioned I don't think this will happen.
2. Force at least two turnovers.  They've forced seven turnovers in seven games, though the Giants aren't especially good at protecting the ball, with eight interceptions and six fumbles (three lost) in eight games.
3. Get to Eli.  They have only 12 sacks in seven games and Manning has only been sacked seven times in eight games.
4. Get a big boost from special teams.  I think we can all agree this isn't going to happen.  If it does, there will be a holding penalty and a celebration penalty on Antonio Brown or Chris Rainey.

When I first started thinking about this game, it reminded me of the Giants-Steelers game from 2008.  The Giants were the defending champs, the Steelers came into the game with a bunch of injuries (Fast Willie, Troy, key offensive linemen), and New York was on a roll at 6-1, with the Steelers looking to make a statement at 5-1, following an important road victory over the Bengals.

I had remembered that as a close game that they could've won, but really shouldn't have.  The Giants won 21-14 and James Harrison snapped a ball out of the end zone, working as the reserve long snapper on the punt team.  These are two stable organizations, so the personnel were basically the same as they are today.

Then I actually looked at the box score for that game and realized, dear God, how did the Giants not win by at least two touchdowns.  I also realized that, aside from some guys on defense and the quarterbacks, the personnel on both sides of the ball are vastly different.   Mewelde Moore was the leading rusher for the Steelers, Nate Washington was the leading receiver, and Limas Sweed caught three passes.  The three starting receivers for the Giants were Steve Smith, Plaxico Burress, and Amani Toomer.  So... what a difference four years makes.  Yikes.

Looking back on that game also made me realize that the 2008 version of the Steeler defense was one for the ages.  Four interceptions and a safety by the offense, four drives that started in Steeler territory (including two inside the Steeler 30), and they only allowed 21 points against the defending champs.  Impressive stuff, even if they didn't force any turnovers of their own.

The present is of no comfort to me and neither is the past, which makes the future look very, very scary, especially Sunday's game.  I just don't think they have it this week.

Prediction:
Giants 27, Steelers 13 

Location Location Location: Redskins at Steelers Preview

As the old saying goes, the most important things in real estate are: Location, Location, and Location.

For Sunday's game, the three most important things will be:

1. Stop RGIII.
2. Stop RGIII.
3. Stop RGIII.

If you've been paying attention to the NFL this season, you've heard that this Robert Griffin III person is a pretty good football player.  You may have seen this or possibly this (the awesome starts at about 11 seconds in).  He's the most gifted athlete at the position since Michael Vick, but he's far more accurate (70.4 completion percentage, leads the NFL) and makes better decisions (101.8 quarterback rating, third in the NFL) than Vick did as a rookie, or possibly ever.  He's got plenty of arm strength, has more rushing yards than LeSean McCoy, and more rushing touchdowns than everyone but Arian Foster.

Washington has also done something that no one ever really fully committed to with Vick: Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has tailored the offense to take full advantage of Griffin's talents and maximize the offense's effectiveness.  This commitment goes beyond calling a couple rollouts or quarterback draws or read-option plays a game.  Shanahan also has RGIII work out of the shotgun most of the time and calls a bunch of quick slants and screens to take advantage of his quick release and live arm.  This has propped up his completion percentage a bit, but it has also helped his confidence.  The man can create an explosive play out of nothing, with either his legs or his arm.

If they can stop him -- something close to the 10-15-91-0-0 stat line he had in the Falcons game before he left with a concussion -- then the Steelers will roll.  If they can contain him like the Giants did -- 20-28-258-2-1 -- and keep him from running wild like he did against the Vikings, they can win this game.

Actually, a stat line like the one he had against New York is probably the best result they can hope for.  They need to be focused on stopping Griffin, but not so focused and tracking him down and punishing him that they ignore all the other playmakers on Washington's offense.  Rookie running back Alfred Morris is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and has scored five touchdowns.  Some of that is as a result of defenses focusing so much on stopping Griffin that Morris sneaks past them, but he's also a very talented player.  If the Steeler defenders key on Griffin too much, Morris is dangerous enough to beat them.  If they spend too much time and energy trying to anticipate when he's going to scramble and close in on him, that opens up opportunities for the Redskins in the passing game.

Dick LeBeau has a strong track record against rookie quarterbacks and he usually defends them mostly with zone schemes that are designed to defend short, quick passes and spread out as needed if the quarterback is asked to throw downfield (usually late in the game when the Steelers have a lead).  Washington's offense uses mostly short passes by design, which plays right into LeBeau's hand.  The key is going to be avoiding penalties and sure tackling, which are two areas where the Steelers have struggled this season.  They need to be aggressive, Timmons and probably Ryan Clark need to spy Griffin and keep their eyes on him at all times, but they also need to be disciplined.  They need to keep the play in front of them, not get flat footed by over anticipating the play, and make sure they wrap up the guy with the ball and bring him down as soon as he catches it.  The Redskins have one of the best Yards After Catch averages in the NFL and they have plenty of dangerous players not named RGIII.

If they can do all that -- and I think they can -- then they can hold Washington to 24 points, which puts the odds heavily in their favor.  Success on defense Sunday is not going to come down to being faster or younger or more athletic than RGIII.  That's impossible.  It's going to come down to trusting the system, executing the system, and not making any dumb mistakes.

The good news for the Steeler offense is that the Redskins defense sucks something awful.  They're 28th in points allowed (28.6 per game) and have the league's worst pass defense (allowing 328.4 yards per game).  They've also allowed a ton of explosive plays: 29 completions of 20 yards or more and seven completions of 40 yards or more.  It's not just that they give up lots of yards and points, so the Steelers should be able to gain lots of yards and score lots of points, it's that they're vulnerable in the areas where Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Mike Wallace excel.  They haven't been lighting things up in the deep passing game thus far this season, but they have the talent and the history together that they should be able to cash in (big time) when the opportunities present themselves.

Washington actually has a decent run defense, but I don't think the Steelers are going to bother running the ball much... except if Pittsburgh gets smacked with some horrific weather and Heinz Field is the consistency of wet cotton candy by halftime.  If it's just cold and a little rainy, the Steelers have the advantage.  If it's cotton candy-like on the field, then the Redskins hold the edge because they run the ball well and don't necessarily need to throw the ball to score points.  That'll make for an ugly game and I just have a feeling the Steelers have just about used up all their ugly karma at home.  Maybe not, but I don't think they pull out another squeaker.

What they need to do is jump out on the Redskins early, get them in a hole and hopefully they'll make some mistakes, keep their foot on Washington's throat, and hold on in the fourth quarter as RGIII attempts a furious comeback.

Not only am I attempting the weather won't be completely horrible, I'm also predicting that all that stuff is going to happen.

Sooooooo... maybe take this prediction with a grain of salt.

Prediction:
Steelers 34, Redskins 24

Good News and Bad News: Steelers at Bengals

Given the fact that it was a must-win game, the hated Ravens look shakier than ever, and starting the season 2-4 would've made it extremely difficult for the Steelers to claw their way into the playoffs, I'm very pleased that they won.

Trouble is, there was more bad news in this game than good.

Good news first:

1. Shout out to Ike Taylor!  Tremendous job by Ike.  I will take one catch for eight yards -- even if it was a touchdown -- from AJ Green any day.  Let's hope he keeps it up.  More to the point, let's hope he does somewhere close to as good when these teams play each other again in Week 16.
2. They proved they can win on the road.
3. They proved they protect a fourth quarter lead on the road.
4. They proved they can beat a weak team on the road.  Not entirely sure the Bengals are a weak team just yet, but they looked weak on Sunday night.
5. The offensive line was as solid as I've seen it all season, especially the three guys on the inside (Foster, Colon, and Legursky).  Mike Adams did quite well for his first start and he didn't get as much help from Heath Miller as Chris Collinsworth would have you believe.  Cincinnati has a talented front four and my biggest fear coming into this game was that they'd be able to blow by and out-muscle the replacement guys -- and the regular guys for that matter -- and they'd take over the game.  The starting five on Sunday night didn't allow that to happen and actually turned in a dominant performance.  When you're able to run five or six times in a row and still gain chunks of yardage, the guys up front are doing their jobs.  I don't care if the Bengals came in with a run defense that was ranked in the 20s.  So did the Raiders and Titans, but the Steelers didn't get the kind of push in those games that they got Sunday night.
6. Productive and effective on third down once again, regardless of distance.  The Steelers have converted 53.8 percent of third downs so far this season.  That's a great number for one games, no less through six games.
7. Heath Miller is finally putting up big numbers because the Steelers are finally making a specific effort to get the ball in his hands, and at all depth levels in the route tree.  Good times.  Now, if only they had been feeding him the ball like this since 2005.

Bad News:

1. The penalties, dear God, the penalties.  Special teams was the big loser this week, but it seems like a different unit is wearing the dunce cap every week.  The good news is that special teams penalties are the easiest to fix because the guys that play in the kicking game are the easiest to replace.  Tomlin mentioned in his press conference today that the best way to cut down on dumb penalties is to have the guys that are committing them watching from the sidelines.
2. From the Obvious Department, but I still feel it needs to be said: I would prefer that they do a better job on first down and second down so that they never need to see third down.  It's great that they have the confidence and talent to convert all those third down chances, but it's also not really sustainable.  If they can keep this up, it gives them a big advantage, but I'm thinking they can't.  If they can't keep up that 53.8 percent conversion rate, then they'll be in deep trouble the rest of the season.
3. Zero sacks, two quarterback hits.  They need to get more pressure.  I'm hoping that will come once Woodley and Harrison get healthier, but I'm really not sure.  I think the key will be more blitzes from Timmons and the safeties, but they'd need to get Troy back for that, too.
4. One interception in the end zone, one fumble inside their own 10.  They were able to overcome two pretty costly turnovers, but a better team would've made them pay for those mistakes.
5. Tomlin was the best coach on the field Sunday night, but that's not saying much.  If it hadn't been for the two pointless challenge flags Marvin Lewis threw, Tomlin would've made the dumbest decision of the night.  That would be going for two after that first touchdown.  Kick early, go for two late.  Those are the rules and they are well-tested and have been proven.  They're way better than the chart.  Throw the chart away and stick with that: Kick early, go for it late.  Some say it was a ballsy call, but that's primarily because it worked.  If it hadn't worked, the Bengals would've been down by only six points and could've won it with a touchdown.

There are more items listed under "good news" than there are for "bad news" but the Bad News items are far more cause for worry than the Good News items are cause for celebration.

They had their backs against the wall, they came back on the road, they protected their lead on the the road, and the proved their veteran savvy mettle grit Steelers football (trying to think how many cliche noise words I can stuff into the end of the sentence).

They're also old, the young guys they have a mistake-prone, their receivers (and defenders) drop too many passes, which is another sign of lack of concentration and focus, and they've muddled their way through a pretty easy first six games of the season with a .500 record.  They're lucky that the rest of the division -- and really the rest of the conference -- is just as uneven and disjointed as they are.  That doesn't make them a Super Bowl contender, but it does mean that they can continue to run in place and probably still make the playoffs. 

They just need to make the right plays at the right time, most of the time.  If they want to do better than another one-and-done playoff finish, they need to do better, focus more, and get to the quarterback.

Bullseye on Ike: Steelers at Bengals Preview

With only five games on the books, I had to say that any game this early in the season is a must-win game.  However, I'm now going to say that Sunday night's match-up against the Bengals is a must-win game.  Allow me to explain...

On Saturday, I was at Primanti's and someone asked the bar if the Steelers were going to go to the playoffs this season.  I immediately said that there was no way, but everyone else that jumped into the debate had two excellent points:

1. The AFC is thoroughly mediocre this year and there aren't many teams that are good enough to fill all six spots.
2. The Steelers have Ben Roethlisberger and a great quarterback gives you a better-than-average chance to win 9 or 10 games.

I knew #2 already, but I hadn't thought about #1 that much.  If you think about it, the Patriots will most likely win the AFC East and no one else in that division is good enough to finish above .500.  Same with the South, but substitute the Texans for the Patriots.  In the West, the Chiefs and Raiders aren't winning more than six games each, so that leaves you with the division winner (Broncos or Chargers) and whoever doesn't win the division.  As much as it pains me to say it, the hated Ravens are in the driver's seat in the North, even with all the issues they're having on defense.  The Browns are more competitive, but they're not going to the playoffs.  That leaves the Steelers and Bengals.

In order to make the playoffs, the Steelers need to sweep the Bengals (for tiebreaker purposes if nothing else), which is why they must win on Sunday in order to stay in the postseason hunt.

This is a game that they can win and probably should win, but the same could be said of the games against the Titans and Raiders.

Cincinnati has some talent on offense, but the only player that has game-changing ability is AJ Green.  Last season, Ike Taylor faced Green twice and held him pretty much in check, to the tune of seven catches for 123 yards and two touchdowns.  Given Green's production thus far this season and how god-awful Taylor has been since the start of the Denver playoff game last season, Green might post numbers like that on Sunday alone.  If he does, the Steelers won't be able to do enough to win. 

They can't get involved in shootouts and they can't have a situation where they're trying to protect a small lead late in the game.  If Green explodes, he'll probably blow up at the wrong time and the Steelers will move to 0-4 on the road.  Taylor needs to play somewhere close to his 2011 level for the team to win.  He could get help over the top, they could put Keenan Lewis or Cortez Allen on him in certain situations, but ultimately Taylor is the guy that needs to step up, put his failures from January onward behind him, and lock down on Green.  The Bengals know that Ike has been burned more times than a near-sighted crackhead this season, so they're going to go after him early and he needs to step up early and often.

Andy Dalton is the best quarterback Cincinnati has had since 2006, but that's not saying too much.  He's regressed a little since last season, defenses have enough films to adequately game plan for him, and the coaching staff is asking him to do more, all of which have combined to make him less effective and dangerous this season.  I wouldn't call it a "sophomore slump" it's just a combination of factors that has turned him into just a good quarterback.  He's not going to put the team on his shoulders and carry them to victory.

Jermaine Gresham and The Law Firm are fine players, but they aren't the guys that are going to make or break this game.

They've got some talent in the front four, but the back seven is kind of shaky.  When they've won games this season, they've done so because they put a bunch of points up on the board and their opponents weren't able to keep pace.  When the Steelers have lost, they've done so because they allowed their opponents to put a bunch of points on the board and couldn't keep pace.

Rashard Mendenhall and Issac Redman are out -- either officially or unofficially -- which means two things:

1. Out of desperation, I picked up Jonathan Dwyer in one of my fantasy leagues.
2. Ben Roethlisberger is going to have to win this game on the strength of his right arm and his ability to escape Cincy's front four.

Above all else, he needs to improve his accuracy and timing with his receivers inside the red zone.  The last two weeks, he's been great between the 20s, but was pretty far off target once he got inside the 20.  That's why the Steelers attempted seven field goals the last two games and that's one of the reasons they lost to the Titans last Thursday night.  I know that saying "you need to score touchdowns when you get in the red zone" is not expert football analysis, but that doesn't mean it's not true.  It's also especially critical for Sunday night's game considering the fact that the Bengals can score points in a hurry and the Steelers seem to need every last point of cushioning they can manage on the road in the fourth quarter.

If the guys subbing for the injured players step up and play above their potential and the guys that have played below their potential just far -- like, say, Ike Taylor --  play up to or above their potential, then they'll win this game.  If Green goes off or it's a tight game with five minutes left to play, I have to say that I don't have enough faith in this team -- to say nothing of the fact that the Bengals are actually pretty damned good -- to think they'll be able to pull off a road victory.

I just think that this is still a talented, veteran group with a solid coaching staff that will dig deep and win a game that they can -- and must -- win.  If they lose, then this is a declining, aging group with a solid coaching staff that will look to finish the season with a respectable record, for the sake of pride.

Like I said, it's a must-win.

Prediction:
Steelers 27, Bengals 17

Soooo Shady: Eagles at Steelers Preview

I'm going to say that LeSean McCoy is the key to this game because I think the Steelers will be able to limit the amount of damage Michael Vick does if they can keep Shady in check.  If he's able to gouge them like Darren McFadden did in the Week 3, then they're not going to be able to contain Vick, either.

McCoy is the most talented player on a very talented offense.  He's such a bad ass that he used to say his name when he juked someone in practice as an extra-special kind of taunt.  He has excellent vision, great feet, good acceleration, and is a very capable receiver.  However, he's not a real home run threat and he doesn't do well when he doesn't have nice gaps to run through.  If the Steeler defense can maintain gap integrity, fill the running lanes, and no one tries to be a hero, they should be able to keep him hemmed in.  At least I hope so.

The Eagles are 3-1, but it hasn't been pretty.  They've won their three games by a total of four points, but they've faced a pretty formidable schedule (except for when they played the Browns).  The big issue thus far this season has been turnovers.  They commit a lot of those.  The Steelers don't force a lot of those.  So, in a case of the "moveable object versus the resistable force" the Steelers will need to force some turnovers to win this game.  This game will most likely turn into a shootout and the Steelers will need those extra possessions in order to win.  I think that they have it in them, but this game fills me with dread.

Philly has basically returned their "Dream Team" roster from 2011 (minus Vince Young), but they're actually finishing games and have been able to overcome the fact that they're their own worst enemy.  There's a ton of talent on this roster and it's finally being used properly, most notably by allowing Michael Vick to be Michael Vick and not forcing a bunch of man coverage corners to play zone.  If they play together and don't beat themselves, they could route the Steelers and it could be an ugly game.

Really, all signs and match-ups point to an Eagles victory.  But, I picked the Steelers in Pick Em this week because of what I think are several important factors.

1. They're at home and they play better at home.
2. They're coming off a bye and they've had two weeks to prepare for Philadelphia.
3. Everyone's healthy for the first time this season, most importantly James Harrison and Troy Polamalu are coming back, which should be a big boost for the defense.  I'm happy that Mendenhall is coming back and I'm starting him in two fantasy football leagues, but I think the defense's ability to get stops and force turnovers is going to be the key to this game.
4. The defense got embarrassed in Oakland and they're pissed off.  Historically, they turn in a strong performance the week after they get beat down and subsequently accused of being too old.  There's a lot of veteran leadership on the defense, but, more importantly, there are a lot of guys that take pride in playing good defense.  Their ability to come back from a poor showing and force everyone to gulp down a frosty glass of STFU is what's going to win this game for the Steelers.

I feel confident in those four points, but I'm still filled with dread.  This game could left me up, or it could crush my spirits, with the Steelers being crushed as well.

But, what the hell, gotta predict something, right?

Prediction:

Steelers 31, Eagles 27

Welcome Back, Peyton: Steelers at Broncos Preview

I'm actually leaving my house in about an hour to fly to Denver, so I feel as though the Steelers will have a little extra home field advantage in this one.  I also feel as though that won't make any difference.

I can't get past the fact that these are, essentially, the same two teams that met in January.  Same venue, same home field advantage for the Broncos, pretty much the same everything.  But, the edge goes for Denver because they swapped out Football Jesus for one of the greatest quarterbacks ever to play the game.  I am well aware of the fact that Peyton Manning is not the same quarterback he once was and that no one -- not even Peyton or his doctors -- can say for sure how his neck will react once he starts getting hit for real.  Assuming that Manning is about 80%, that makes him about 300% better than Tim Tebow, and that makes the Broncos a much better team than they were in the Wild Card round of last year's playoffs.

So, that's one thing.  The other thing is that Ryan Clark will not be available for this game.  I think that his absence was a key contributor to the pass defense's collapse in January.  Yes, Dick LeBeau is really smart and really good at his job and will find ways to patch the holes Denver found in his scheme in the last game.  But, you can't overlook the fact that Ryan Mundy backs up Ryan Clark for a reason: It's not that Mundy is a bad player, he's just not as good as Ryan Clark.  I don't think that Clark is an all-star, but he does do an exceptional job of playing the "hero" and covering up for all Troy's freelancing.  Without him there to watch Troy's back, either Polamalu doesn't do as much freelancing or there's no one there to cover for him when he does.  Either way, it hurts the defense as a whole.

Finally, you have the mile-high effect.  These are highly trained athletes and most of them are in great physical condition.  The issue is that they're not in mile-high condition just yet and the Broncos have the advantage of having practiced and trained at a higher altitude all spring and summer.  Historically, Denver enjoys a home field advantage early in the season simply because they're used to the conditions and their opponents aren't.  I just have a feeling that Casey Hampton, for one, will be gassed midway through the second quarter, especially considering he didn't have training camp to play himself back into shape.  Since these are two teams that played a tight game that was decided in overtime eight months ago, every little edge that Broncos have is significant, and I feel that this is a big edge for them.

I don't think there's anything actually wrong with the Steelers on offense or defense, I just don't think that they're good enough to overcome everything they'll need to overcome to win this game.  I think that, overall, they'll have a good showing this season and finish between 9-7 and 11-5, depending on how they do against the hated Ravens.  Denver's defense is too good, they have just enough of an edge on offense with Clark on the sidelines, and they have the altitude on their side.

I think they also have the psychological edge in this game.  Sure, the Steelers are made that they got beat in such dramatic fashion last season and the defense will be fired up, trying to prove that the playoff collapse was a fluke.  But, the Broncos have a nationally televised prime time game, a shiny, new, big name quarterback to show off, and they're just as motivated to show that their playoff win wasn't a fluke as the Steelers are to prove that their loss was a fluke, if not more motivated.

Mike Wallace is going to be fine.  He's still fast enough and scary enough to keep defenses honest.  He doesn't need to know the offense to know how to run in a straight line.  He just needs to be there.  He occupies two guys and allows Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown and Heath Miller to draw single coverage and get better match-ups.  Roethlisberger may not look his way that often -- unless he sees single coverage -- but I think Wallace is more than capable of making some plays when Roethlisberger does call his number.  I also wouldn't be surprised if they got Wallace involved early by throwing him some quick slants and screen passes and seeing what he can do, as well as taking a shot with him deep even if it's not there.

What worries me is that the Broncos have an exceptional front seven and a solid defense overall.  They feel like they can pressure anyone and they will blitz with regularity.  The Steeler offensive line is still in flux and I'm not sure they're up to the task of blocking all these guys.  It could get ugly.

The x-factor for Denver is Manning.  If LaMarr Woodley decapitates him on the first series, the Broncos are sunk, at least for this game.  We also don't know how much arm strength he's been able to build back up after having basically no arm strength following the 2010 season.  He also hasn't taken a real hit in 18 months.  It'll be interesting to see how he reacts to the first one.

I know I've been all over Chris Rainey all pre-season, but he's the x-factor in this one.  Denver has a slight edge on offense and defense, so special teams needs to step it up.  Special teams is basically just Rainey now that Brown is no longer returning punts.  If he can get a big return -- not even necessarily a touchdown, just a long return that puts the Steelers in a position to score -- they can win this game.  Do I think he'll do that?  I have no idea, but I don't think it'll happen.

Ultimately, they don't have enough to win this one without a little luck and a little help.  It's not going to be a blowout, but I don't think they're going to pull this one out.

Prediction:
Broncos 20, Steelers 13