Welcome Back, Peyton: Steelers at Broncos Preview

I'm actually leaving my house in about an hour to fly to Denver, so I feel as though the Steelers will have a little extra home field advantage in this one.  I also feel as though that won't make any difference.

I can't get past the fact that these are, essentially, the same two teams that met in January.  Same venue, same home field advantage for the Broncos, pretty much the same everything.  But, the edge goes for Denver because they swapped out Football Jesus for one of the greatest quarterbacks ever to play the game.  I am well aware of the fact that Peyton Manning is not the same quarterback he once was and that no one -- not even Peyton or his doctors -- can say for sure how his neck will react once he starts getting hit for real.  Assuming that Manning is about 80%, that makes him about 300% better than Tim Tebow, and that makes the Broncos a much better team than they were in the Wild Card round of last year's playoffs.

So, that's one thing.  The other thing is that Ryan Clark will not be available for this game.  I think that his absence was a key contributor to the pass defense's collapse in January.  Yes, Dick LeBeau is really smart and really good at his job and will find ways to patch the holes Denver found in his scheme in the last game.  But, you can't overlook the fact that Ryan Mundy backs up Ryan Clark for a reason: It's not that Mundy is a bad player, he's just not as good as Ryan Clark.  I don't think that Clark is an all-star, but he does do an exceptional job of playing the "hero" and covering up for all Troy's freelancing.  Without him there to watch Troy's back, either Polamalu doesn't do as much freelancing or there's no one there to cover for him when he does.  Either way, it hurts the defense as a whole.

Finally, you have the mile-high effect.  These are highly trained athletes and most of them are in great physical condition.  The issue is that they're not in mile-high condition just yet and the Broncos have the advantage of having practiced and trained at a higher altitude all spring and summer.  Historically, Denver enjoys a home field advantage early in the season simply because they're used to the conditions and their opponents aren't.  I just have a feeling that Casey Hampton, for one, will be gassed midway through the second quarter, especially considering he didn't have training camp to play himself back into shape.  Since these are two teams that played a tight game that was decided in overtime eight months ago, every little edge that Broncos have is significant, and I feel that this is a big edge for them.

I don't think there's anything actually wrong with the Steelers on offense or defense, I just don't think that they're good enough to overcome everything they'll need to overcome to win this game.  I think that, overall, they'll have a good showing this season and finish between 9-7 and 11-5, depending on how they do against the hated Ravens.  Denver's defense is too good, they have just enough of an edge on offense with Clark on the sidelines, and they have the altitude on their side.

I think they also have the psychological edge in this game.  Sure, the Steelers are made that they got beat in such dramatic fashion last season and the defense will be fired up, trying to prove that the playoff collapse was a fluke.  But, the Broncos have a nationally televised prime time game, a shiny, new, big name quarterback to show off, and they're just as motivated to show that their playoff win wasn't a fluke as the Steelers are to prove that their loss was a fluke, if not more motivated.

Mike Wallace is going to be fine.  He's still fast enough and scary enough to keep defenses honest.  He doesn't need to know the offense to know how to run in a straight line.  He just needs to be there.  He occupies two guys and allows Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown and Heath Miller to draw single coverage and get better match-ups.  Roethlisberger may not look his way that often -- unless he sees single coverage -- but I think Wallace is more than capable of making some plays when Roethlisberger does call his number.  I also wouldn't be surprised if they got Wallace involved early by throwing him some quick slants and screen passes and seeing what he can do, as well as taking a shot with him deep even if it's not there.

What worries me is that the Broncos have an exceptional front seven and a solid defense overall.  They feel like they can pressure anyone and they will blitz with regularity.  The Steeler offensive line is still in flux and I'm not sure they're up to the task of blocking all these guys.  It could get ugly.

The x-factor for Denver is Manning.  If LaMarr Woodley decapitates him on the first series, the Broncos are sunk, at least for this game.  We also don't know how much arm strength he's been able to build back up after having basically no arm strength following the 2010 season.  He also hasn't taken a real hit in 18 months.  It'll be interesting to see how he reacts to the first one.

I know I've been all over Chris Rainey all pre-season, but he's the x-factor in this one.  Denver has a slight edge on offense and defense, so special teams needs to step it up.  Special teams is basically just Rainey now that Brown is no longer returning punts.  If he can get a big return -- not even necessarily a touchdown, just a long return that puts the Steelers in a position to score -- they can win this game.  Do I think he'll do that?  I have no idea, but I don't think it'll happen.

Ultimately, they don't have enough to win this one without a little luck and a little help.  It's not going to be a blowout, but I don't think they're going to pull this one out.

Prediction:
Broncos 20, Steelers 13

Tebowlicious: Steelers at Broncos Preview:

I am becoming more and more worried and pessimistic about this game as the days go by.  When I heard that the Broncos won the AFC West by losing, I was ecstatic.  It meant that the Steelers would have a chance to dismantle and humiliate Football Jesus and I'm all about the schadenfreude (holy crap, schadenfreude was in the spell check dictionary).

I wasn't overly concerned about the fact that Rashard Mendenhall got placed on IR and I was convinced that Ben Roethlisberger's ankle would only improve, so long as he could continue to just walk it off and/or rub some dirt in it.

Now that we're about 48 hours from kickoff, I'm more than a little nervous, since Ryan Clark can't play, Pouncey has been ruled out, Roethlisberger suffered a setback in the Cleveland game (still listed as probable, though), Polamalu and Harrison haven't practiced this week (somehow listed as probable), Mewelde Moore is out, and Keisel missed two practices this week.  My guess is that, since this is the playoffs, everyone that hasn't been ruled out is going to play.  But, how well will they play in the thin air at Mile High Stadium Presented by Sports Authority?  How limited will they be?

Also, running backs coach Kirby Wilson was badly burned when a fire broke out in his kitchen.  At least Lamarr Woodley looks like he's ready to go, so that's a silver lining.

When I found out the Steelers were going to be playing in Denver, I was looking forward to a pretty easy win.  Then I remembered that the offense seems to have peaked at 13 points a game ever since Roethlisberger hurt his ankle.  Then I remembered that it was a road game and the Broncos play tough at home.  Then everyone got hurt and guys started dropping off and becoming unavailable for the game.  This morning, an assistant coach got burned in a house fire.  There are a lot of bad omens surrounding this game.  This game is officially making me very nervous.

Having said all that, I stand by my Wild Card prediction.  This is going to be an ugly, stupid game.  It will not end quickly.  I will not enjoy it.  Denver will cover and you should take the under (even though it dropped to 33.5), but they will not win outright.

Here's why: The Steelers have destroyed bad quarterbacks all season and Tim Tebow is a bad quarterback.  It doesn't matter what stat you use: quarterback rating (72.9), QBR (30.5), or QBERT (6.385).  He has only 1,729 yards passing in 11 starts, his completion percentage is atrocious (46.5%), and he's been sacked 33 times.  He's also fumbled 13 times.  I know that he's 7-4 and that he's money in the fourth quarter, but I also know that more accurate passers with better numbers still struggled to put up even respectable numbers against the Steeler pass defense.

The more accurate/better numbers list includes: Tavaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, Blaine Gabbert, Curtis Painter, Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace, Kellen Clemens (OK, that one's debatable, he may be a less gifted passer than Tebow), and Tyler Palko.  Those guys combined to score 74 points on the Pittsburgh defense and 40 of those points came from Curtis Painter and Kevin Kolb.

They should be able to focus on Willis McGahee and contain him.  They have the personnel in the secondary to switch off between the Cover 3 looks that Buffalo used to stop Tebow and the man coverage looks the Patriots and Chiefs used.  They just need to remember to stay focused and stay on their man when they switch away from zone coverage.  Tebow was able to burn the Vikings secondary for a couple of long touchdowns because the defensive backs were too focused on him and forgot to stay on their man.  I can see Troy Polamalu making that mistake and Ryan Clark won't be there to cover Troy's mistakes.  Then again, pretty much every quarterback in the league was able to burn the Vikings secondary this season, so maybe it just boils down to Tebow not being very good.

The point is that the Steelers shouldn't need to score much to win this game.  They won't score much, either, which is why you should take the under.

Just remember: A win's a win.

Prediction:
Steelers 13, Broncos 9