After my resounding victory in NFL Pick Em this season, I've decided to pick each round of the postseason against the spread. This is a more challenging way to do things, but I have confidence in my abilities. Onto the picks (home team in CAPS)...
HOUSTON (-3) over Cincinnati:
I thought this line was going to go down when it opened, because so many people were going to take the Bengals in an upset. It hasn't moved since it opened at 3, but you should still take it as soon as you can in case the Mighty Ginger's mysterious "illness" starts to swing it towards the Texans. If the line moves to 3.5 or, even worse, 4, then it's not worth it. This is a textbook 21-17 or 27-23 or 28-24 game. At four points, it's a push. At three points, it's easy money.
In the playoffs, it's all about quarterback play. Cincinnati has the edge there, but the Texans have the edge everywhere else, including the fact that they're playing at home. The over/under on this one is surprisingly low (38.5), but I think that Vegas is thinking that two solid defenses will keep this game low scoring.
My feeling is that it will unfold like Super Bowl XXXVIII between the Panthers and the Patriots. Both teams will start out conservative and try to feel each other out, then they'll come out swinging in the second half. If the first half ends 10-7, don't panic. They'll make up for it in the second half.
NEW ORLEANS (-10.5) over Detroit:
I tried to talk my way into picking the Lions. I really did. That line is HUGE and Detroit is a solid team. The Saints play crappy defense. But, really, I'd need a 15-17 point line to pick against the Saints at home. They're just unstoppable.
NOLA's margins of victory at home this season: 17, 7, 55, 11, 25, 14 (against Detroit), 29, 28. They're 8-0 at home, there's only one game on that list where they wouldn't have covered, and they already covered that spread against the Lions earlier this season.
I know that the over is 58.5 and that's a ridiculous number. But... total points in the eight games this season in the Super Dome: 43, 73, 69, 43, 73, 48, 63, 62. That's five out of eight total games and three out of the last four. They might hit the Over by halftime.
Atlanta (+3) over NY GIANTS:
New York is 4-4 at home and they're shaky as hell. I think the Falcons cover and win outright, so take the moneyline at +136.
These are two high-flying offenses and two teams that don't play a lot of defense. An over/under of 47 actually seems a bit low. I see the Falcons winning this one 34-20 or so.
DENVER (+9) over Steelers:
Don't get me wrong. I think the Steelers win this one. I just think that, whoever came up with this line, they didn't watch the Steelers play the past month or so. With an ailing Ben Roethlisberger behind center, I find it hard to believe that the Steelers will score enough to cover this spread, regardless of where the game is played.
This strikes me as another grinding 13-9 or 14-10 or 16-13 victory for the Black and Gold. I think they win, but I don't think they roll. And take the Under, even though total points is an extremely low 34.
No comments:
Post a Comment